3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info

For the most part, online sports bettors are in agreement with money line numbers oddsmakers placed on the 15 games on the baseball board. However, there is greater division in thought about how the Totals should play out and I’ll examine those three contests along with money line adjustments.

Atlanta at Washington 7:05 EDT

After registering 6.4 runs in the past five games, Atlanta was all geared to see Stephen Strasburg of Washington. With S-squared a late scratch, Braves’ hitters must have been disappointed and tallied only five hits in 3-0 shutout last night. This evening it is a pair of veteran pitchers on the hill with Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) squaring off against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12). The total opened at 8 and has since fallen to 7.5, with solid provocation. Hudson is 9-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals and Hernandez is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in his last four matchups with Braves. With Atlanta 13-4 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game and the Nats 10-1 UNDER after a contest with a combined score of four runs or less this season, the direction of the money appears accurate. Review SBGGlobal.com for all your baseball options.

Arizona at Philadelphia 7:05 EDT

The Phillies offense is crackling like expected, impressing those betting on sports with 6 runs per game during six-game winning streak. Roy Halladay (11-8, 2.28) will attempt to do his part in limiting the Arizona offense and the right-hander has permitted one or less runs in four of his last six starts. The Philadelphia hitters will look to dial in on the tosses of Edwin Jackson (6-9, 5.01), who has 6.85 ERA since throwing no-hitter on June 25. The total has headed downward for this NL conflict, starting at 8 and now at 7.5. Halladay could be expected to limit the D-Backs offensive output and is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) However, Jackson is very hittable and the Snakes bullpen ERA has 7.81 on the road and the club is 13-5 OVER after four or more consecutive losses this year. Not certain if the total is going the right way.

St. Louis at N.Y. Mets 7:10 EDT

In theory, the Mets were a sound underdog play on Tuesday, playing well at home against a Cardinals club that has failed in the road greys. New York won 8-2, raising home record to 31-16 (+12.8 units) and St. Louis fell to 21-29 (-6.6) as visitors. A matchup of left-handers has left sports bettors feeling more comfortable with the Metropolitans chances in Game 2 of the series. New York was a -119 ML choice at daybreak and has since jumped to -130 or higher. The Mets are 8-0 in home contests after batting .240 or worse over a 15-game span this campaign. While Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21) is having a brilliant rookie season, with the second lowest ERA among starting pitchers in baseball, Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79) is 50-16 after walking one or fewer hitters in each of his last two outings during his career. (Team's Record)

Baltimore at Toronto 7:05 EDT

Not sure what to make of this total sinking southward. This AL affair opened at 9.5 and has since gone to 9, which sort of made sense when Shawn Marcum was the scheduled starting pitcher for Toronto. The Blue Jays made a change to Brad Mills (7-4, 4.13 ERA in 16 starts for Triple-A Las Vegas), giving him his third Major League start and first of 2010. If you forget about the pitching switch, the Blue Jays are still 11-2 OVER at the Rogers Center vs. AL clubs scoring 4.7 or less runs game in the second half of the season since last year. Baltimore was again hammered 8-2 by Toronto and is 25-14 UNDER after scoring two runs or less and even with Jeremy Guthrie (4-10, 4.46) pitching better lately, the Orioles are 2-8 on the road with the lefty starter, who sports a 5.01 ERA in road uniform. Guthrie however, is 20-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year with average score 7.4 total runs.

L.A. Dodgers at San Diego 10:05 EDT

It’s unusual to say the least a team would win five of six while scoring a grand total of 11 runs, yet that is precisely what the Dodgers have done in pulling to within six games in the loss column of San Diego. Linemakers had the team from L.A. as +114 underdogs, but sports betting online fans have preferred the pedigree of the Dodgers and they now sit +100 pooches. Los Angeles is a stellar 26-8 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span and thought provoking 15-1 after five straight times where they had less than 10 hits. With Hiroki Kuroda (8-8, 3.48) in better form than Clayton Richard (7.13 ERA in four July starts), the visitor might well be the right play.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
Seattle is 4-23 against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more since 2008.

Totals Nugget
Florida is 14-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season, with average total score of 6.9 RPG.

Run Line Nugget
Arizona is 0-11 against the run line in road games vs. good fielding teams, averaging 0.6 or fewer errors a game in 2010, losing by alarming 5.3 RPG.

L.A. Angels Season on the Brink

Coming into the year, one of the changes that were expected to take place was manager Mike Scioscia’s Los Angeles club no longer to be the dominant force in the AL West. Heavy personnel defections weakened the Angels roster at several positions and other teams in the division were showing improvement. Prognosticators looked to be accurate when the squad from Anaheim started 3-7, thanks to a lack of hitting and unstable bullpen.

The Angels (51-46, +2.2 units) at least started to hit as the season wore, but on May 30, their best hitter Kendry Morales broke a bone in his leg on a walk-off grand slam against Seattle and immediately television pundits declared the Scioscia’s squad DOA.

However, you don’t manage in big leagues as long as Scioscia has without being smart and the troops rallied and fought their way into second place in the division behind Texas (55-40, +1.1), who has played outstanding all year.

Since the baseball season is only in the latter stages of July, it sounds preposterous to call a series “extremely important”, yet that is exactly the case as the Angels travel to Arlington. Tonight opens a huge four-game series and both clubs have one aspect in mind - find a way to win three games.

For Los Angeles, they trail the Rangers by six games in the loss column (this is more important than games back, since everyone is scheduled to play 162-game season) and a series victory brings them within manageable four games, with over two months to play. Losing three of four creates an enormous burden for the Halos, being eight games back in the standings. To put this into perspective, if Texas would have 58-41 record come next Monday and they continued to play at the same pace the rest of the season, that would mean L.A. would have to close the regular season 44-17 to overtake Texas, a very unlikely scenario.

Game 1 of this battle has a distinguished pitching matchup with Jered Weaver (9-5, 3.16 ERA) facing Cliff Lee (8-4, 2.59, 0.937 WHIP). “It’s huge,” Weaver told the Angels’ official website. “We’ve been sitting four, five games back for a while now. … When you’re playing those guys, you pick up a game or lose one. Simple as that.”

Los Angeles is 10-4 in series openers most recently and will need Weaver to pitch superior baseball, which has been problematic against Texas. The 6’7 right-hander is 5-3 with 3.62 ERA vs. the Rangers, however pitching at Rangers Park has been a different story. In Weaver’s last six outings in Arlington he is 0-3, with a 6.17 ERA and his team has failed to win each contest. The Halos have lost five of six against winning teams when Weaver toes the rubber.

Cliff Lee will see the Angels for a second time this campaign, but for the first time wearing a Rangers uniform. The lefty is 6-3 (3.18) lifetime against Los Angeles and 21-7 when pitching on Thursday’s, (Team’s Record) which means he is supplying his team with a series clincher or opening game victory 75 percent of the time.

Betting on sports participants will find Texas as -169 money line favorites. Lee is remarkable 15-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last three seasons. (Team's Record) Nearly all online sports betting outlets have the total Un8 and the much-traveled Lee is 43-17 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the same time span.

The veteran port-sider will be taking on Angels lineup that is hitting .329 while averaging 5.8 runs over its last six tries and is 7-1 vs. starting pitchers with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Weaver and other Los Angeles hurlers will have to confront Josh Hamilton, who has hit .394 in 18 July ballgames to raise his average to a Major League-leading .353. Hamilton is a serious Triple Crown threat being third in home runs (24) and fourth in runs batted in with 70. Since the All-Star break, the left-fielder is molten 13 for 30, a .433 average.

The Angels trail in the season series to the Rangers 3-2 and have dropped eight of past 11 at Texas.

Total Domination Fuels Two MLB Matchups

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been two of the weakest franchises in baseball for a number of years. The Orioles haven’t had a winning season since their division title in 1997 and Pittsburgh is on historic sports streak, as their last winning campaign came in 1992. When you are this bad, everyone has a shot to beat you, however certain teams can really put the hurt on you and both clubs face a nemesis that just doesn’t let up this evening.

Thank you sir may I have another

It was just four years ago, despite being a horribly run franchise, Baltimore (29-63, -20.8 units) always had the cushion of Tampa Bay (56-36, +2.8) below them to at least have a little dignity, keeping them out of last place in the AL East. No more, as the Rays figured out how to put together a farm system and Baltimore, they are still trying to work that point out.

The O’s came into the season believing they had turned a corner, with the development of a few of their younger players, despite the fact they were on a streak of the next season being worst than the prior since 2004.

This quickly turned into a futile campaign with abysmal 2-16 start. Enter Tampa Bay. The Rays are 6-1 vs. the Orioles this year, including 4-0 at Camden Yards, where the teams will meet again. Over the past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 15-7 where crapcakes are plentiful and 31-13 overall.

Sports betting online outlets have Baltimore as +180 home underdogs, after their 8-1 shellacking last night and the Birds are 2-19 after scoring one run or less this season. They will send potential sacrificial lamb Jake Arrieta (3-2, 4.62 ERA) to the mound and Baltimore is 11-36 off three straight losses against division rivals the last three seasons.

Tampa Bay will start Matt Garza (10-5, 4.05) who is 8-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles and is 2-0 this season, permitting two earned runs in 16 innings and striking out 14. For this 7:05 Eastern contest, the Rays are 14-4 on the division road this season.

Oh that’s going to leave a mark

Prosperity and abundance are two words seldom associated with the Pittsburgh Pirates (32-60, -12.3). After scoring 21 runs on 36 hits in last two contests in taking the series against Houston, the Bucs must have been arm and leg weary and could only muster a lone run and six base-knocks against renowned Chris Capuano and other bullpen pitchers from Milwaukee (43-51, -7.8) in 3-1 defeat (Capuano’s first win in three years).

Pittsburgh losing to the Brewers is as predictable Lindsey Lohan and Mel Gibson being in the news, after awhile you hardly even notice.

The Pirates have fallen to the Brew Crew in nine of 12 matchups this year (5 of 6 at PNC Park) and they are 8-32 vs. Milwaukee since 2008. The latest slump has Pittsburgh losing nine of 11 and they are 8-27 with double revenge against opponent this season.

Betting on sports participants will note the Bucs are +117 underdogs with their best young pitcher Brad Lincoln (1-3, 5.14) taking the ball. Lincoln has mid-90’s heat, a curveball with a hard break and improving changeup. His problems have come leaving the ball up against big league hitters and has been tagged for four homers in last two starts. Pittsburgh is 50-101 after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span.

Milwaukee counters with Dave Bush (4-7, 4.07), who has pitched his best baseball of the season of late, with 2.45 ERA in his last trio of starts. Half of Bush’s wins in 2010 have been at the expense of Pittsburgh and the Brewers are on 7-1 streak as a road favorite in the -110 to -150 range. The Crew is 7-0 against Pitt. when Bush is the starting pitcher since July 5, 2008.

MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs

This is very good article, I thought you would enjoy.

MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
By Steve Makinen of StatFox

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

To continue reading click here....

MLB Series Wagering- Rays at Yankees

The two best teams in baseball square off in the Bronx to begin their second half of the season. Tampa Bay (54-34, +2.7 units) trails New York (56-32, +7.4) by two games and would like to close the gap even further with a series triumph. The Rays have played with the off-kilter intensity of Mel Gibson, not in the present form, but like his character in “Mad Max –Road Warrior”. Tampa Bay has far and away the best road record in baseball at 28-14 (+12) and they are flat out fantastic in the division with 12-2 mark, which includes a pair of wins May 19-20 at Yankees Stadium.

For New York fans and many of the players, this series starts with a melancholy feel, as legendary public address announcer Bob Sheppard and “The Boss” George Steinbrenner, both passed away this past week. “I think he’s a father figure to everyone that was in our organization in the past or present, because he really took care of his players,” Jeter said. “You know, whether it was a player that’s on the team now or someone that played for a week 30 years ago.

The Yankees will wear patches on their uniforms for the remainder of the season to honor Steinbrenner and Sheppard.

New York returns home like they are just out of the microwave, winners of eight of last nine. Among the hottest Yankees is pitcher C.C. Sabathia (12-3, 3.09 ERA), whose been delivering as consistently as UPS. Sabathia is 8-0 since June began with miniscule 1.81 ERA. In fact, in his last 38 2/3 innings, the big lefthander has permitted four earned runs. The Bronx Bombers are -175 money line favorites at online sports betting outlets and no wonder with the big man 15-0 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

After scuffling for awhile, the Rays are back online, also winners of eight of last nine outings. Tampa Bay deserves notice for 12-1 record vs. an AL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.20 or better this season, nonetheless, James Shields (7-9, 4.87) is curious choice as starting pitcher for series opener. Shields is 1-8 with a 7.00 ERA in his last nine outings and 2-7 with 5.54 ERA in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

“I’m happy that we’re playing them right out of the gates,” Shields told MLB.com. “We’re right behind them right now and it’s a good chance for us to pick up a couple of games on them.” With those words in mind, you can’t help of thinking of Ace Ventura saying “All righty than”.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The team in pinstripes has the third best home record in baseball starting this series at 28-13. For those seeking sports betting tips, New York is playing 40 of final 74 games at home, which will give them definite edge along with inflated money and run lines. A.J. Burnett (7-7, 4.75) will again pitch on this FOX Saturday afternoon affair. Two weeks ago Saturday, he was dreadful at Los Angeles, lasting just three innings and permitting six runs. That concluded a stretch of five June starts with an ERA over 11 and the Yankees coaches deducted Burnett needed to start using his change-up more and this has brought immediate results, allowing two total runs in last two starts covering 13 2/3 innings. The Yanks are 43-18 in Game 2’s, but have won just one of Burnett’s previous six starts.

Jeff Niemann (7-2, 2.77) has arguably been manager Joe Maddon’s most dependable starter all season, particularly on the road. Niemann is 4-0 (the Rays are 8-0 in 2010 when he starts) in visiting uniform and Tampa Bay is inconceivable 17-2 in the second game of a series when the 6’9 right-handed toes the rubber. The Rays best bet to win is grab the lead before the eighth inning since New York is 4-26 when trailing after seven frames and 48-4 when leading.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale matches a pair of lefties, one representing the past and present, with the other already an All-Star with unlimited future. Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.70) is 38 years old and is getting better with age, being an All-Star again this season. Pettitte is extremely knowledgeable hurler, quickly figuring out what pitches are working from his repertoire and keeping hitters off-balance. Pettitte and teammates are 12-3 as favorites this year and 22-10 in day games. Skipper Maddon would be wise to load lineup with right-hand sticks as opposing LH hitters are batting .167 vs. Pettitte’s tosses.

The Rays counter with All-Star starter David Price (12-4. 2.42) who is fulfilling the promise as Tampa Bay’s top pick of the 2007 June draft. The 24-year old has all the pitches, including a tight slider and improving change-up. He and the Rays are 6-0 in the division and 6-1 in the day time.

Game 3 Edge: New York

This should be a highly competitive series given how each team has played. Tampa Bay has 3-2 lead this season and somewhat surprisingly, the last six meetings have gone Over the total for those betting on sports. Both clubs are exceptional in their roles of home and away, yet the visiting team has taken five of past six. Despite this, it’s very difficult to bet against the Yankees at home, thus will be betting them for this weekend.

Sportsbook series odds: Tampa Bay +170, New York -220

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

American League teams needing quick starts

The second half of the Major League Baseball season is about to begin and three games are on tap in the junior circuit for participants in sports betting. Two contests feature playoff contenders who are looking to begin the second half with a win, to set the right tone for the rest of the season, hopefully to keep building momentum from this point.

Rangers and Red Sox rumble

Boston (51-37, +3.9 units) actually has a better record than Texas (50-38, -1.8), but is in third place in the AL East behind New York and Tampa Bay, while the Rangers have the largest lead (4.5 games) among the six division leaders.

Both clubs have been slumping and are in need of a fast start to rebuild momentum. Boston has lost five of last seven games, falling behind the Rays in the standings as all their injuries apparently have caught up with them. Seven important players on are the disabled list and that includes All-Stars Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Clay Buchholz.

“I know it’s not perfect, I recognize that, but the level of intensity and trying to do the right thing has been off the charts,” manager Terry Francona told the Red Sox’s official website. “It’s been a challenge, but one that I think we’ve all kind of enjoyed. … Our job is to win with what we have.”

The Red Sox have not enjoyed much success versus quality clubs the last two seasons with a 5-19 record against teams with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season.

Texas starts this four game series with its confidence more shaken than Mel Gibson, having lost a four game series at home to Baltimore of all teams. The Rangers base paths looked like Dallas at rush hour in failing to beat the Orioles once, leaving a total of 37 runners on base in being swept. Those losses left the Rangers 6-15 against AL East opponents this season.

Texas opened as an underdog at online sports betting outlets, but were quickly turned around to a favorite with Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA) facing Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22). Hunter has had seven quality starts in eight outings, but was torched for nine runs in 1 2/3 innings in only Fenway Park start. The Rangers are 3-8 this month.

Boston won final game in Toronto 3-2 and is 18-2 in home games after scoring and allowing three runs or less over the last two seasons. Wakefield will especially careful with Vladimir Guerrero who is hitting .434 against him (10 for 23 with five homers). The BoSox have had little to fear from the Rangers, being winners in 11 of previous 14 in Bean Town.

Scalding Sox try to avoid Minnesota mishaps

During the All-Star telecast, FOX analyst Tim McCarver talked about asking Chicago’s Paul Konerko if he had ever played on a team that was as hot as the White Sox (25-5 since June 9) and the first basemen’s answer was direct and to the point, “Never”.

Chicago’s current eight-game winning streak and torrid play had them blasting by Minnesota (46-42, -3.4) and Detroit to the top rung in the AL Central.

The Pale Hose trailed Minnesota by 9.5 games when this scintillating streak first started and even the manager of Chicago is trying to come to grips with the situation. “I think it is a shock just because the way the team was playing, how many games we were out of first place. It’s a shock how quick we did it,” skipper Ozzie Guillen said. Chicago is 11-2 after four or more consecutive wins this season.

The White Sox (49-38, +9) make a second trip this season to Target Field with hopes of drowning past failures in the land of 10,000 lakes.

Playing in the Twin Cities is not listed as a favorite spot by the White Sox, having lost 16 of last 20; however except for 1-1 this year, the rest of the damage was done at the old Metrodome, where seemingly everything went wrong.

John Danks (8-7, 3.29) hasn’t received a great deal of run support despite being effective and he and Chicago are 19-10 on the road (1-6 lifetime at Minnesota) since 2008.

The Twins are 47-19 at home against left-handed starters the last three seasons and hand the ball to Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64), trying to turnaround season that has gone south with 6-13 record of late. Slowey and the Twinkies are smallish -115 money line home favorites for those betting on sports and are 14-2 in home games after he walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.

Jim Kruger Studies College Basketball Futures

Growing up, my brother and I would watch the Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson. One of our favorite guests was Criswell, a strange sounding character who predicted the future. Carson would have him on in December to tell his viewing audience what bizarre things were going to happen in the coming year. Being little kids, we believed Criswell and were sure his predictions would come true.

Little did we know that Criswell was a bit off-kilter and being extremely odd was what had made him famous. You may recall him acting in probably the worst movie of all time, “Plan 9 from Outer Space”. It is so bad it actually is entertaining.

To his credit, Criswell did announce several months before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated that JFK would not run for re-election because of something that would happen to him in November, 1963. And, while he also predicted years in advance the election of then actor Ronald Reagan as Governor of California, the prediction I remember the most on Carson was that blind cockroaches would be found on the west coast. I was amazed by that and for the next year asked my mother every week if she had heard about any new important discoveries concerning cockroaches.

In a basic sense, betting on sports is predicting the future. You are trying to make money by predicting the outcome of an event, or even something pertaining to an entire season, a true futures bet. Not only can you bet on who is going to win a national championship, but even who will win a division or conference. Many sportsbooks have futures wagers on who will win the home run race, the Cy Young Award, MVP, etc.

A friend of mine showed me a futures ticket he had for Arizona to win the Super Bowl. After Arizona beat Atlanta, he placed a $600 wager to win 18 dimes, 30 to 1 odds, on the Cards being crowned the next world champions.

I love to bet season wins in sports and do so every year with quite a very good success rate. Since I am already tying up a chunk of change for an entire season on my season wins bets, I normally don’t make many futures wagers, also. However, after my friend Dan showed me that ticket, I have changed my attitude.

When you consider that a recent spat of unlikely candidates have won league and even national championships, such as Tampa Bay in Major League Baseball last year or the Boston Celtics, which started out last spring with 125 to 1 odds to win it all in the NBA, why not devote more time in looking for potential winners other than your early favorites. Since there is no time like the present, let’s start by looking at candidates to win the 2009 College Basketball Championship.

To start this selection process, I wanted to see what type of numbers in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency teams that had been very successful in the tournament the past five years. Instead of just taking the teams who had made it to the Final Four, I added the Elite Eight teams into the data sample also. Games involving Elite Eight teams can sometimes go either way as the competition is so keen and the skill set of each team is so good. I did not include Sweet 16 teams as there is a higher chance of luck for a team to make it that far as compared to getting to the Elite Eight. Sometimes higher-seeded teams get upset and help clear a path to the Sweet 16 for some squads that truly don’t meet up to the standards of a team deserving to make it to the final eight.

Besides offensive efficiency, the number of points scored per 100 offensive possessions, and defensive efficiency, the number a team allows, I calculated the difference between the two by subtracting the DE from the OE. I marked the lowest rating of each category from the teams who had made it to the Final Four over the past five years. From this year’s current ratings, I listed any team who was equal or better than those minimum rating for OE, DE, and the difference between OE and DE. The minimum I used for each category was the following:
Category:

Minimum RatingOffensive Efficiency: 109.9

Defensive Efficiency: 90.0

Difference OE vs. DE: 20.0

Under this year’s rankings, there were 52 teams that qualified under offensive efficiency, 28 had low enough defensive efficiency numbers, and 36 had a good enough differential between OE and DE to make the list.

The next step was to see what teams made all three lists. Many teams were on two of the qualifying lists but not all three. The biggest downfall for most teams was their failure to have a good enough DE rating. Baylor had the fourth best offense at the time of this article but was only 86th in defense. Notre Dame was #6 offensively but even worse than Baylor in DE, # 166.
A few squads made the cut on defense but fell miserably short offensively. Southern California was the fifteenth best defense but only #77 on offense. Washington State was #12 on DE but a mediocre #146 on OE.

There were sixteen teams that made the minimum requirements in all three categories. These are my potential Final Four teams. From this pool, I will select what teams to place bets to win it all. They are in order by their differential rating. I also included the odds as listed by sportsbook.com to win it all. Futures odds vary greatly. At the Stations Casinos in Vegas, posted on their intranet betting service for Nevada residents, they have North Carolina at 5 to 6, Wake Forest at 7 to 1, and a huge difference with Gonzaga at 6 to 1.

Rank, Team, Differential, Odds

1. Duke: 34.35 (7 to 1)

2. North Carolina: 33.86 (2.25 to 1)

3. Pittsburgh: 31.63 (7 to 1)

4. Missouri: 30.06 (100 to 1)

5. Gonzaga: 30 (30 to 1)

6. Arizona St.: 29.54 (35 to 1)

7. Connecticut: 29.27 (6 to 1)

8. Georgetown: 28.51 (50 to 1)

9. West Virginia: 28.4 (100 to 1)

10. Wake Forest: 25.8 (14 to 1)

11. Illinois: 24.42 (50 to 1)

12. Xavier: 24.23 (80 to 1)

13. Washington: 23.59 (50 to 1)

14. Kentucky: 22.93 (40 to 1)

15. Utah: 21.84 (250 to 1)

16. Villanova: 21.45 (100 to 1)

There are five Big East representatives, three from the ACC, two are Pac-10 squads, and six teams representing six different conferences.

What was surprising was that so few of Southeastern Schools showed up in the cream of the crop in any of the categories. Outside of Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida were on the OE and the Differential lists but failed to have a good enough DE number. With Florida standing at #76 defensively and Tennessee even lower at #104, the chances are very slim they will qualify defensively.

Four teams, three from the Big 12, are already on two of the three lists and are very close to having good enough marks on all three to qualify for making the potential Final Four group. Kansas is the closest needing only .03 of an improvement defensively. Oklahoma needs to improve their defense by 1.50 to join the FF qualifiers. Needing better offensive numbers are Texas, 2.17 points short, and Memphis, only 1.51 lacking.

Next week I will unveil my futures bets and discuss the different teams chances of being the next national champ.

Oh, and you might make a note of this on your calendar. Shortly before his death in 1982, Criswell predicted the end of the world would happen on the Winter Solstice in the year 2012. Of course he did not clarify whether he was predicting that would happen on the Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, which happens in late December, or for the Southern Hemisphere, which rolls around in late June. Maybe the end of the world will happen in two stages with only a half going first and the second half following suit six months later. Maybe by then, we will have found those blind cockroaches.

Jim Kruger is from Vegas Sports Authority and also writes for StatFox.com.