AUGUST’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

By Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL pre-season whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott *12-6
The Minnesota starting pitching has been mediocre for a large part of the season and Scott Baker has been part of the problem, with ERA hovering around 5. This would be the right time for the right-hander to pitch up to expectations with the Twins looking for another AL Central crown.

Bush, Dave * 8-3
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush begins this month with below average career record of 53-64, however he has flourished in the dog days of summer. With fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he has to have his variety of breaking stuff working to be effective, which it is usually this month.

Hernandez, Felix * 13-5
Last season Hernandez was 19-5, with WHIP of 1.114 and hitters batting .227 against him. This year his WHIP to start this month is exactly the same, opponents are hitting ever so slightly better at .232, yet with an inferior team, he is 7-8. With run support, King Felix could have typical August.

Kazmir, Scott * 12-5
On the DL, expected to have rehab assignment the middle of August and could return if all goes well.

Lincecum, Tim * 12-6
Being a two-time Cy Young winner, there are not many bad months. Though still extremely effective, the ERA is up over three this season, with strikeouts down and opponents batting average up to .240 (compared to .221 career). Let’s see if Lincecum pitches to usual high standards with San Francisco back in pennant race.

Oswalt, Roy *13-3
Always a strong closer at the end of the year, Oswalt got the energy boost he needed being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pettitte, Andy *13-5
On the DL since July 19, Pettitte has been soft-tossing without discomfort and could well be back before projected 4-5 weeks initial outlook to continue August dominance.

Pineiro, Joel * 12-2
In the midst of solid 10-7 season and career innings pitched, the Angels right-hander is out six to eight weeks with oblique strain.

Sabathia, C.C. * 14-4
The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts, proving he is primed for another awesome August.

Santana, Ervin * 10-4
Always a quality No. 3 starter, Santana has often been an important cog in the Angels winning AL West titles. While this might not occur in 2010, this Dominican dandy is poised for another sharp month.

Shields, James *12-6
If Tampa Bay is to catch the Yankees, getting better pitching from James Shields would make a difference. His 9-9 record with 4.79 ERA is far cry from 2007-08 when he was 26-16, with ERA a full run lower. Time for Shields to find a way to avoid bats.

Wainwright, Adam *10-3
The Cardinals have a pair of aces with Chris Carpenter and Wainwright and the Georgia native could be on to 20-win campaign if he has usual stellar August. Opposing teams are batting a career low .219 against him.

Wolf, Randy * 10-3
The lefty has found the difference between Miller Park and Dodger Stadium to be severe this season. Two areas demonstrate the difference for Wolf this year compared to last. In 2009, opponents hit .227 against Wolf, presently they are at .269. His strikeout totals this season are more reflective of his poorer career years with 87 to begin August, compared to 160 last season. Will Wolf turn it around?

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach * 2-8
When opponents are batting over .300 against a starting pitcher for his career, the front office should look in the mirror and question themselves.

Guthrie, Mark * 5-13
His ERA is up nearly a run in last 10 starts, explaining 1-6 record. When Guthrie struggles, it’s because the fastball comes to the plate like it is on a string and breaking stuff lacks bite to keep hitters off balance. Pitching for Orioles doesn’t help.

Hernandez, Livan * 4-11
His ERA is creeping up, yet still highly respectable 3.22. For most of his later career, Hernandez has tended to wear down as the year progressed, making him play against pitcher as part of his M.O.

Olsen, Scott * 2-9
Has made one start since being placed on the DL in May and difficult to determine how the left-hander might do for Washington with only 20 total appearances the last two years.

Owings, Micah * 3-8
Optioned to Triple-A Louisville by Cincinnati on July 28.

Robertson, Nate * 3-8
Released by Florida on July 27.


Doug Upstone of 3dailywinners.net contributed to this article.

San Francisco Giants have bettor’s attention

Yesterday went to take in Tim Lincecum and the rest of his teammates in the black and orange hats and see if this reporter could figure out why they are playing such good baseball. Having struck out and walked more than enough batters in my youth, I always appreciate outstanding pitchers and try to make it point to see as many as possible when they come to town.

It just so happens the San Francisco Giants (56-43, +7.7 units) are racking up profits faster than Major League teams selling $10 beers, winning 16 of last 20 and collecting +13.35 units of profit, moving into second place in the NL West, trailing San Diego by four games in the loss column.

What is most noticeable about the Giants of course is their pitching, the starters in particular. Lincecum didn’t begin the game with his best stuff, unable to command his curveball and Arizona batters were sitting on his fastball and tallied two runs in the second inning. However, as the game wore on, the long-haired competitive right-hander settled into a groove and never permitted another run over the final six innings of work.

This giant streak has seen Giants pitchers allow only 2.5 runs per game, which gives the offense a chance in every contest even if they don’t score many runs early on. This type of pitching has brought about something that hasn’t happened in nearly a century of Giants baseball. Among their last 15 victories is a pair of four-game sweeps (at Milwaukee and at Arizona). The last time this franchise accomplished this feat was 1912, 98 years ago. (OMG)

Another factor is this San Francisco team has been averaging 5.8 runs per game compared to 4.4 for the season (10th in the NL). Aubrey Huff is batting over .300 and is their leading home run hitter with 19. Pablo Sandoval is starting to hit despite personal issues. If you haven’t seen catcher Buster Posey swing the bat, he looks every bit as good as his .371 batting average. His 18-game hit streak (he’s hitting .472 in this stretch) is the second-longest for a rookie in Giants history, passing one Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda and chasing another in Willie McCovey, whose streak stands at 22 games. With six more games to play this week, Posey could also break the team record for runs batted in for a rookie of 24 set by Jim Ray Hart in 1964 having 23 this July.

After their 6-1 road excursion, San Francisco opens up homestand with Florida (49-49, -0.1) tonight. Manager Bruce Boche hands the ball to Barry Zito (8-5, 3.45 ERA) who has had a career resurgence to help the Giants this season and they are a combined 21-13 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win the last three seasons. Sportbet.com has the San Fran as -140 ML favorites and the 2002 AL Cy Young winner and his club are 11-4 against NL East squads. The left-hander is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA vs. the Marlins.

Florida arrives in the Bay Area playing very well with seven triumphs in last nine outings and they are 20-11 as underdogs with Ricky Nolasco (10-7, 4.50) the starting pitcher. Nevertheless, it is difficult to discount the way the Giants are playing and they are 37-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since 2008. The Fish on the other hand are 6-18 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.

Until further notice, it’s awfully hard not to back San Francisco with reasonable money lines.

Sunday's Starting Lineup

A little late inning luck gave us a 2-1 day, raising our record to 125-67, 65.1 percent. We start with a solid MLB system that is 48-11 in a NL encounter. The Top Trend offers two awesome situations from the same contest. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I heard the Dodgers left-handed reliever Hong-Chih Kuo is perfect 34-0 against lefty swingers this season. That right, they are betting .000 against him.

Going to go watch Tim Lincecum pitch today which should be great fun and before the game going to Alice Cooper’s restaurant to try the “Big Unit” hot dog that is 22 inches long, as seen on Man vs. Food. Of course I'm sharing with a pal.

If you wonder what is wrong with Ubaldo Jimenez, he is getting his elbow under and out ahead of his wrist, which is causing him to throw wild and high with his pitches.

The GUARANTEED Play finds one team playing into 6-34 situation, making them a 85 percent Play Against team. Come join me today and let's grab this EASY Winner.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Snakes, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, against opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Betting against Arizona today gives you 81.4 percent chance of winning. (48-11)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The N.Y. Mets are 1-10 in road games vs. a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better and the L.A. Dodgers are 13-1 after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall has four straight winners and has Cincinnati to ground Houston.

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Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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Bring Back Steroids to Baseball!

I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than a year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

Written by Red Wydley who drops by on occasion.

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Dressed for Sunday Success

Closed the day 1-1 officially, though the Best System was a winner. Moving forward, the Dodgers are in 32-7 system, is it good or bad for L.A.? Why break up a good thing, have used the Yankees as Top Trend the last two days, why ruin it when the numbers show 88.4 percent. Kendall has a reappearance and has MLB play that has gone from dog to favorite. Good Luck

What I thought today- There is no comparison to the first round of the NHL vs. the NBA; basketball isn’t even close by comparison. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t get better, but for entertainment, the guys in the sweaters are much better to watch, IF you understand hockey.

Have you ever sensed anyone being happy about a particular topic when they say “It is what it is”?

Tim Lincecum is just sick. In case you haven’t heard and I think I heard this right, 21 K’s and two walks this season in 20 innings and only one leadoff batter has gotten base against him. Oh yea, he had three hits yesterday.

Not going to give out 4-1 on underdogs in MLB every day, but today’s math pups are Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Giants. The Nats would have been but they got flipped.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams like the Dodgers with a team batting average of .280 or better on the season (NL), after a loss by four runs or more. Since 2006, this system is 32-7, 82.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Why switch after two winners, the Yankees are 23-3 in home games when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is 8-1 the last two days and got the Washington Nats when they were still an underdog to sweep Milwaukee.

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Baseball Series Wagering - Bravos and Giants

Both the Braves and Giants showed considerable improvement in 2009 and both hope to be able to continue that momentum into a new season, leading to postseason baseball.

The series opener is a game of firsts for both squads. This is the home opener for San Francisco who swept Houston in their building and this the first road game of a new campaign for Atlanta who won series over Chicago.

The Braves might be without one of their top sticks in the lineup as Chipper Jones strained his oblique muscle in batting practice yesterday and was forced out of the game on Thursday. Depending on the severity, he could miss one game or the entire series. That means others have to step up in his place like Brian McCann or rookie Jason Heyward for Braves club that is 29-47 on the road the last two years in the first half of the season.

The Braves welcome back Tim Hudson, who didn’t pitch until September last season after elbow surgery, but feels great and is ready for new campaign. “I feel like I had better stuff than I had before surgery,” Hudson told the Braves’ official Web site following a spring start. “It almost feels like I’m going out there and opening up a new present.” Atlanta is 8-3 when Hudson starts after scoring two runs or less and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four career starts at AT&T Park.

Everyone expects the Giants to have great pitching again, but they scored 18 runs in taking all three games vs. Astros, which included 19 base hits in Wednesday’s finale. San Francisco was very comfortable at home last season with 52-29 record.

Jonathan Sanchez will try to provide manager Bruce Boche with a fourth straight strong performance from the San Fran starters, which limited the Astros to three earned runs and 13 hits in 19 2/3 innings. Sanchez is entrenched in Giants lore, throwing no-hitter last season, the first in 33-years for San Francisco. He has classic three-quarters lefty delivery with low 90’s fastball and sweeping curveball. He’s improved his split pitch that he can fade down and away from right-hand batters.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Atlanta as -110 money line favorite with total Un8 for this afternoon opener. The Braves ended last season winning 21 of last 28 road contests and is 9-3-1 UNDER in game one of series. The Giants are in potentially negative spot, with 9-23 record with Sanchez as underdog starter and they were 15-5-3 OVER as home pooch.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

The early part of the schedule is perfect time for manager’s to get their whole roster involved. The Braves website is suggesting that could be true. Catcher McCann is expected to be off in the series afternoon opener after catching a night game. McCann should be back in the batting order on Saturday. Fourth outfielder Matt Diaz is presumed to play in at least one game and Omar Infante is expected to fit in somewhere in the infield.

There has been conflicting reports about who the game two starter will be, however Derek Lowe is on normal rest, thus he’s expected to take the mound. Lowe allowed five earned runs in six innings against Chicago on Opening Day and didn’t look completely at ease with the changes he’s made in delivery to get more sink on his pitches. The Braves won Lowe’s last four road starts in 2009 and he’s 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his last nine starts against the Giants.

San Francisco is expected to counter with fifth start Todd Wellemeyer, who made the club as a non-roster invitee, beating out a couple of top prospects for the job, at least for now. The 31-year old righty was cut loose by St. Louis after 7-10 season (5.89 ERA), which saw him surrender 160 hits in 122 1/3 innings, including 19 that went over the fence. Expect Atlanta to load up with left-handed bats since that is really a troublesome area for Wellemeyer. Possibly the Giants can hit their way to a victory and they are 6-2 at home against right-hand starters to begin the series.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

Tim Lincecum is expected to close the series for Giants in afternoon action and was dazzling in his initial start of the season. The two-time Cy Young winner looked intent on a third, hurling seven shutout innings, conceding four hits –all singles, fanning seven Houston batters and walking none. He will look to master the Braves lineup and is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six career starts against the Atlanta.

Bobby Cox could counter Lincecum with Kenshin Kawakami, his fifth starter. The Japanese right-hander was 7-12 with 3.86 ERA last season and earned the nickname “Dragonslayer” in out-pitching Roy Halladay and Ervin Santana last year for wins. He’ll have his chance to enhance that image against San Fran’s ace, being you typical Far East pitcher with array of fastballs, late-breaking sliders and downward curveballs, unafraid to throw any or all pitches on any count. Kawakami will get smoked if he throws the ball over the plate.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

The key to the series is first game, as the latter two contests have team aces up against No. 5 starters. Both bullpens have been sharp to start the year so not much difference there. For this series we’ll give the nod to the Giants because of history in the Bay Area. San Francisco has won four in a row over Atlanta and seven of eight at AT&T Park.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Atlanta Even, San Francisco -130

3Daily Winners Pick: San Francisco

A New Month - More Winners

Go figure the Cubs would lose two to Pittsburgh, giving us .500 day. The best MLB system is not at 80 percent or higher, but the best we could is in article below. Instead I found a dandy for NFL Sunday to ponder at 82.1 percent. Have a remarkable Top Trend that is 17-1 and Gary looks to keep killin’ the oddsmakers with MLB Free Pick. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Though I don’t think much of handicapper Jim Feist, I’ve always admired his ability as promoter and ability to make money. On his Pro-Line show, there has been this woman the last few years named Roz Juarbe, who introduces segments. She SUPPOSEDLY is/was a handicapper, but only a buffoon would have believed that. I just found out Feist is actually married to her. Good for him, with the money talking.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing yard a carry, after they gained 30 or less rushing yards last game. The logic doesn’t seem to make sense, but the 23-5 ATS record does. This system favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Jon Lester and the Red Sox are 17-1 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, winning by 4.1 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Gary of the LCC moved his recent MLB record to 27-9 yesterday and rides the Giants with Tim Lincecum.

Guaranteed CFB Winner for Thursday.

The Platinum Sheet was 69 percent in all CFB selections last week.

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Wednesday's Best and Unreal Story

We are going to take 2-1 record for yesterday, because our system play was based on Tim Lincecum pitching and the line falling in certain parameters, which ultimately did not happen. Consider a bet with listed pitchers. And yes if the Giants had won I’d be writing the same thing. Have a Top Trend that is difficult to believe. The Best System today happens to be in article form, thus we’ll grab the next best one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I learned today- A lot of people don’t like handicappers that are slimy by appearance and by their actions in telling half truths or outright lies. They pale in comparison to these slime balls. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/zombie-bankers-haunt-wall-street.aspx

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Free Baseball System-1) We’ve used this system a number of times this year and it keeps working. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, after allowing 10 runs or more. Let the record show 104-22 mark, 82.5 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This trend is actually in the article below and awfully hard to ignore. Jeff Suppan of the Brewers is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick is 11-4 and picked up over 10 single units (for the sake of making this easier to understand) since last Saturday. His best play was on St. Louis, but his next best is on Arizona which is still open.

Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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MLB Series Wagering- Rockies at Giants

It may not be “How the West was won” but for San Francisco, it’s a critical weekend to get back into the wild card race in the National League. With 34 games remaining, the Giants trail Colorado by three games for the last playoff spot in the senior circuit. Last week San Francisco (69-59, +10 units) lost three of four near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and cannot afford a similar fate or postseason dreams could be washed out to sea by the Bay.

Manager Bruce Boche has the pitching aligned exactly how he wants it to give San Francisco its best chance of winning. In order, its Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, this at least sounds daunting for Colorado. Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) lost last Sunday at Colorado 4-2, giving up room service pitch for home run and walking a season high five batters. Last year’s Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a sterling 1.36 ERA at AT&T Park in his last six outings and the Giants are 8-3 when the right-hander is pitching on four days rest.

Colorado (72-56, +12.6 units) has to quickly put behind the disappointment of losing series to front-running Los Angeles and refocus on the task at hand. The Rockies are 17-9 in August road games the last couple of years and have what they believe is the right pitcher to combat Lincecum in Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36). The righthander has pitched a minimum of eight innings in four of his last five starts, not allowing more than two runs and winning each game. He relishes the challenge of facing “The Freak”.

“I love challenges," Jimenez said. "I'm positive when I have a challenge. I can't wait to be in that position. Hopefully, everything's going to be OK this time." Jimenez has made nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs and Colorado is 21-6 on the road against a right-hand starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Giants as -125 money line favorites, with the total Un6.5. San Fran is 8-2 when Lincecum pitches as a favorite and has won 41 of last 58 in favorite role. The Rockies have won just one of last seven as an underdog and are 7-20 when Jimenez is pitching as road dog and 1-5 if the opponent has winning record.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

San Francisco knew coming into the season, they would have to build this team around pitching and defense and the front office has been prophetic. The Giants are 14th in the National League scoring runs, a paltry four runs per game. Nobody knows this better than Barry Zito (8-11, 4.09). Though Zito has been criticized and dismissed as a non-talent more than Heidi Montag, this season Zito has looked like the pitcher the Giants spent 126 million for several seasons ago. In his last eight starts, the lefty has ERA of 2.08, yet is just 3-2, as he has received the poorest run support in the NL at just under three runs a game. Zito made a decision to stop worrying about avoiding bats and instead has gone after hitters, which has paid dividends for a pitcher needing confidence. The Giants have won five of his last six starts at home.

Colorado counters with Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.47), making this a rematch from Monday, when neither starting pitcher figured in decision. Marquis has ended being a key acquisition for the Rockies, pitching well when they were still trying to settle in and rock solid once they turned the corner playing outstanding baseball. Colorado comes into the series 52-25 in last 77 outings and they are 8-2 when Marquis faces a club with winning record.

Game 2 Edge: Colorado

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series, which is afternoon affair. San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

Had my four series winning streak snapped last week, however feel good about this week’s selection. As good as Colorado has been since Jim Tracy took over as skipper, San Francisco could have just as easily won three of four last week in Denver. Sporting a National League-best 41-21 home record, the Giants are the play this weekend to close the gap in wild card race.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Colorado +120, San Francisco -150

3DW Pick: San Francisco

2009 Record – 7-10

Suitable for Framing Friday (I hope)

Not exactly inspiring 1-1 Thursday, but at least didn’t have losing day. The Top Trend will yield two plays from the same game, but will only count as one. The Best System is about as straightforward as they come and 62-12. Jason looks for another winner as a high volume player with Free Pick. Good Luck

What I’m learning – I’ve received a couple of emails from people regarding buying picks from the Google ads. As many of you might know, I have no control of what Goggle places on this blog other than to create matches. I’ve received one email today and saw one on a forum Killer Sports (From Google ads) is doing something fishy. When I learn more details will pass along, but like everything in life, Buyer Beware.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This system is an 83.7 percent winner at 62-12 since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) I’m a little embarrassed to use this as trend because of the money line, thus I’ll give you both sides of it. Homer Bailey and Cincinnati are 0-10 when playing against a team with a winning record and Tim “Cy” Lincecum and the Giants are 15-1 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. (There I fell better)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Jason had the correct side yesterday raising his record to 23-9 in August and his best bet is Kansas City to oust Oakland.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

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Why can’t San Fransisco win on the road?

You’ll have to forgive the San Francisco if they are feeling a little giddy at the moment. This team came into the 2009 season looking to rid itself of an overbearing shadow (Barry Bonds) and build a new foundation based on pitching and fielding with younger players. Everything has essentially gone according to plan except for one element, the Giants are tied for the wild card lead after winning three of four at home against the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies, who have the best road in baseball.

San Francisco has the best home record in the game at 37-16 (+20.4 units). Unless the Giants are going win there remaining 28 games at AT&T Park, they are going to have to pick up the pace on the road.

The Giants travel to Houston (52-53, +1.3 units) for a three game set and they are 21-31 (-6.8 units) wearing the road uniforms. Most team’s offense will sag on the road, which is particularly dangerous for manager Bruce Bochy’s club, since they only score 3.9 runs per game to start. As visitors, the Giants are last in the National League (29th in baseball) in runs scored at 3.4 per game.

Brian Sabean is the San Francisco general manager, who tried to milk the Bond’s era for every late drop and not enough every day ball players have come up through the Giants system that are productive. The farm system hasn’t been completely barren, with hitting-machine Pablo Sandoval and Nate Schierholtz having very good breakout seasons.

Though AT&T Park is believed to be pitcher’s park, it’s the Giants pitchers and extensive center field area that lends itself to that belief. Balls hit straight away to right or left field and towards the lines, travel the same as anywhere else. If anything, San Francisco should score more runs, not less on the road.

The conundrum is more varied and is brought out in other numbers. Giants’ hitters are next to last in the Major Leagues in extra base hits and home runs on the road. They are far from a patient group in visiting uniforms, averaging only two walks per game (30th) and have little speed, with a manger not inclined towards the running game, ranked 12th in stolen bases in the senior circuit.

What the Giants do have is pitching and lots of hit. Led by Tim Lincecum, San Francisco can mow down opposing batters. They lead the NL in ERA, complete games (9) and shutouts (15). There infielders don’t receive as much action as other teams, however they get plenty of practice throwing the ball around the infield, since Giants hurlers strikeout the most batters.
One big turnaround pitcher has been Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA). After years of being a play against pitcher because he always had that one bad inning, Cain has been brilliant, and is coming off nine shutouts innings against Pittsburgh last Wednesday. The Giants have won 16 of his 21 starts in 2009.

DiamondSportsbook.com has made the Giants a -133 money line road favorite and Cain and company are 11-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. They will face Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36) and the Astros in series lid-lifter. Hampton has been rocked in last three starts with ERA of almost 10. Though San Fran is 17-11 against left-hand starters, Hampton has given them trouble during his career. The veteran lefty has owned certain teams like Pittsburgh, whom he’s picked up half his wins against this season, with the Giants not to far behind. He’s 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 23 career starts vs San Francisco and Houston heats up like the Texas weather in August, with 22-10 record the last couple of seasons.

This contest is an 8:05 Eastern start at Minute Maid Park and will be available for viewing in local markets. One last thing to worry about the Giants, they are 1-6 in last seven visits to Houston.

Monday, Monday I still love that day

An almost odd losing day gives us 166-104-3, 61.4 percent mark over three and half months. With yesterday killer system a failure, we’ll try and come right back with another that is 93.2 percent. If you like Felix Hernandez as much as I do, you at least have to pause with Trend that is out there tonight. Free Plays are broiling and Mark has one for tonight. Good Luck.

Activity Report – No baseball viewing or listening tonight, its ZZ Top and Aerosmith on the west side of Phoenix. Temperature at show time should be around 109, that’s degrees.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who couldn’t break a air-filled plastic bag with a bat, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Pittsburgh goes against Tim Lincecum for a system that is 55-4, 93.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This won’t be official play because King Felix is pitching for Seattle, nonetheless it does make it a bit scary to support the Seattle when they are 0-18 after allowing 10 runs or more. On the record, Philadelphia is the play since they are 10-1 in road games after two or more consecutive Overs this season, winning by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Free Play is 14-2 the last 16 days and Mark of the Left Coast Connection was 6-1 this weekend and likes Texas to tame the Tigers.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor (like to see a show of hands if you purchased book and what you think)

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Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The three things you can count on in life are death, taxes and change. In each case, how we react to them helps sculpt our lives. In baseball, one aspect that has changed dramatically is pitchers willingness to throw inside. There are reasons this has occurred. Starting when a pitcher tries to throw inside and misses, he could either hit a batter hanging over the inside part of the plate or throw room-service pitch that is launched over the fence. Pitching away plays to the batters weakness, making him chase and swing unnaturally at outside pitches.

The problem with this style or mentality of pitching is batters have no fear. Take the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have been even close to suffering as much bad luck to the staff as the Angels. To start the season, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar started on the disabled list. Lackey and Santana have returned, with neither pitching like they have in the past. Escobar gave it try, but whispers out of Anaheim have many wondering if his career is threatened. Dustin Moseley was supposed to step in and he too ended up on the DL and Nick Adenhart was tragically killed.

The Angels were forced to look anywhere for healthy bodies to pitch, which has contributed to them being 26th in runs allowed at five per game.

The departure of Francisco Rodriguez set off a change of events to the bullpen. Brian Fuentes was brought in to be the closer and looked like a batting practice pitcher for almost eight weeks, with an ERA of almost eight at his lowest point. Scott Shields was always Mr. Durability, until his plant leg and knee gave out, requiring season-ending knee surgery. Supposed closer in the making Jose Arredondo is now in Triple-A trying to get back in groove, while fighting elbow issues.

This has left manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Mike Butcher with a huge dilemma almost every night. The Los Angeles bullpen is 28th in ERA, with opposing batters hitting a blistering .278 against them.

Part of the problem besides command, is lack of knowledge or ability to own the inside part of the plate. Texas Ranger and nearly washed up Andruw Jones hit four home runs in last two games against the Angels and was never threatened with inside pitch. The Rangers hit five home runs in Game 3 to take the series. Wouldn’t you think one Angels’ pitcher would have been peeved and drilled somebody? Nope. They just took it and start Friday’s action in second place, behind Texas.

The easy excuse is “that’s not how the game is played anymore” Really? Do you think Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander to name a few, just work the outside black of the plate? Of course not. Each pitcher effectively works both sides of the plate and is unafraid to come-up-and-in to move a batter who looks a little too comfortable in the box.

Unless the Angels suddenly turn into the 1927 Yankees, it’s very difficult to place a wager on them on a consistent basis, since no lead is safe and even when they do lose, the pitchers are only too happy to just accept it and move on to next game.

Don’t know if you saw this the other day, but it is EXTREMELY simple to determine what is wrong with the Cleveland Indians this season. On average, they have allowed almost 14 opposing players per game to reach bases (13.6) when combining hits and walks. This is the highest number in baseball (Yes, even Washington is better), no wonder they have lost -22.7 units, despite scoring over five runs per game.

Dan Haren of Arizona is going to the All-Star; however he hasn’t received near the notoriety he deserves for his season’s work. His record is respectable 8-5, with the Diamondbacks 10-7 for -0.2 units in his 17 starts. Consider Haren has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. (May 23 against his former team Oakland) A total of 14 times he has pitched a minimum of six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs for a record of 8-5, which is nondescript, considering the production. His ERA is flabbergasting 2.16 and in his five defeats, the Snakes have scored THREE total runs. Consider if the Arizona scored below their average and totaled just four runs per game in Haren’s losses (He allowed eight total runs in defeats), he would have 13-0 record, at +10.85 units and the most celebrated pitcher in the game.

The Florida Marlins are hanging around in contention in the NL East, even though their supposed strength coming into the season has not materialized. The Marlins staff of fine young hurlers is 12th in ERA in the National League and they are ordinary eighth in quality starts. How has Florida succeeded? The Fish are granulating left-handed pitchers, posting 20-11 record, picking up +10.1 units. Florida averages 0.5 more runs per game against southpaws (4.9 vs. 4.4) compared to right-handers. It’s the way the rotation works out; nonetheless, the Marlins are tied for third in facing the most lefties, which seems peculiar at this juncture given there results. What is even more outlandish is the fact Florida pitchers have conceded one less run per game (4.1 vs 5.1) when a left-hander starts for the opposition.

Baseball Betting info you can use

The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.

Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.

With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fifth best bet in baseball at +6.1 units and 34-29 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (36).

The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.

The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.

Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.

"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.

Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.

Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.

The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.

Better late then never Wednesday action

Sorry to be so late, had to get NBA Finals material completed. Bounced right back with 2-1 day and have top notch system that has complete write up below. (Interestingly enough, a few LCC members like Texas) Boston won in MoTown yesterday, can they make it two straight, see Top Trend. The Dodgers dodged defeat scoring five in the eight inning to beat Snakes 6-5, will Paul be as fortunate again or will he have blowout winner? Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday - Washington took a six-game losing streak into Tuesday night's game against Tim Lincecum and the Giants. The Nationals scored four runs against Lincecum and then six runs off the San Francisco bullpen for a 10-6 victory. It's only the third time that a team carrying a losing streak of more than five games beat an opponent that was starting the reigning National League Cy Young award winner. It happened in 1972, when the Cardinals ended an eight-game losing streak with a win against Ferguson Jenkins and the Cubs, and in 2001, when the Rockies beat Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks to stop a six-game drought.

Free Baseball System-1) See below article for today’s best system.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are is 12-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck was very lucky with the Dodgers pick last night and he hopes his luck continues playing Tampa Bay tonight.

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Trying for Terrific Tuesday

With yesterday’s 0-2 mark, our record of late is 84-56-3, 60 percent on the button. Today is a hard day to wager MLB in my opinion, with many large numbers and underdogs with obvious flaws. The Twins don’t have many flaws in today’s Top Trend. The Best system in is NL and Tim Lincecum will play a role. Paul Buck is back and offers Free Play. Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday -The Yankees played error-free baseball in their 5-2 win at Cleveland, extending their errorless streak to 18 games, a new major-league record. That the Yankees have posted a 14-4 record to move from third place to first during their errorless streak should not be viewed as a coincidence. Over the past two years, since June 1, 2007, they have posted a 131-60 record in games in which they haven't committed an error (.686), compared to a 60-73 mark in games with errors (.451).

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs (Washington) with a money line of +125 to +175, who score between 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a solid NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This sweet system brings home the bacon 81 percent of the time with 51-12 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 13-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-2 in last eight plays on the base paths and prefers the Dodgers this evening.

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Betting Baseball with numbers that matter

Over the last couple of decades, intelligent baseball fans have moved away from the rudimentary statistics to more thought-provoking and useful numbers. The ideas of batting average and earned run average telling the whole story just isn’t true anymore and we moved ahead to more sophisticated methods of measuring performance.

From the batting perspective, one commonly seen on television and heard on radio broadcasts is on-base percentage. Some may wonder how an on-base percentage is calculated.

You add together hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide that by at bats, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

What we learn from on-base percentage is the hitting value of the player to the team. For example, Ted Williams hold the all-time record for OBP for career at .481. Second is Babe Ruth at .474 and others in the top 10 includes Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. In the top 15 all-time are a couple of modern day players, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols.
Why is OBP valuable to sports bettors?

Start with the fact the easiest way to score runs is having men on base. Former Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver said the best offense play in the game was a three-run homer and while you can’t argue with his logic, two players had to get on base for that to occur. Many of the all-time great pitchers gave up 20 or more home runs a year, even into the 30’s, but they limited damage by having them be solo shots.

On-base percentage means players are willing to help the team. These hitters will take walks, adding to hurlers pitch counts, and play the game the right way, by hitting to opposite field if pitcher works the outside corner continually or with two strikes.

A quick review of the top five teams in Major League Baseball for OBP looks like this.

L.A. Dodgers .374
N.Y. Mets .369
Boston .366
Washington .361 (see pitching numbers)
Toronto .359

Three of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions and the Red Sox are right on the heels of the Blue Jays. Though Manny Ramirez is suspended, his work ethic and attention to detail has rubbed off on his Dodgers teammates. The Mets have been more patient at the dish and are 5th in walks. Boston is just being Boston and Toronto manager Cito Gaston has convinced his team to be more aggressive at the plate, yet be selective at what you swing at. After having doubts, maybe Nationals third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman is correct is saying “….we’re better than our record shows”, however allowing six runs per game puts a great deal of pressure on any offense.

Another aspect to think about is what a quality OBP does to opposing teams pitching staff. The pitch count aspect has already been mentioned for starting pitchers, which transcends into more innings for bullpens. This is an area that is a moving target for many teams from year to year, as teams feel compelled to pay everyday ball players more and will let go of effective reliever over cost concerns.

Drilling down, we find only 10 teams have a bullpen ERA of less than 3.80, suggesting batters going to the plate with an idea to execute could see tasty deliveries coming their way.

Reviewing the other end of the spectrum here are the five worst teams in OBP.

Seattle .307
Arizona .307
San Francisco .314
Oakland .314
San Diego .314

Two of the five clubs are in the bottom five for walks (Mariners and Giants). Only San Francisco has a record above .500, but that has been due to superior starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the possible revitalization of Barry Zito. It would be rare to see Seattle, Oakland and San Diego at the top of this list anyways, since they play in parks conducive to pitching. Nevertheless, all these teams lack talented hitters and the ones on the active roster go up to the plate just hacking, making them easy fodder for pitchers that can hit the right spots.

Arizona is the biggest disgrace, since the core players on the team should be approaching best years. The Snakes have to tie their shoes extra tight, because they swing so hard trying to jack everything over the fence. To this point, the D-Backs hitters have shown no adaptability to wanting to improve and strike out or hit lazy pop-ups and fly balls.

Winning against those setting the line is never easy, but utilizing tools like on-base percentage can keep you in the black.

MLB Series Wagering- Giants at Dodgers

It seems only fitting on the day of the biggest news story of the season, the team that will affected the most would lose their first home game of the season to the worst team in Major League baseball. Manny Ramirez was suspended 50-games by baseball for taking illegal substance and the Dodgers record setting home winning streak of 13 games came crashing down, but not because the offense failed, as they lost 11-9 to the Nationals.

Ramirez is old news, as manager Joe Torre will have to play with the 25 players on the active roster and not be concerned about what he doesn’t have, as his club prepares for rival San Francisco. Undoubtedly, Los Angeles will miss Ramirez, but the team’s young players have paid attention to Manny’s positive habits and are second in the big leagues in runs scored and batting average. Being aggressive yet patient has really paid off for the Dodgers who have drawn the most walks in baseball coming into the series.
San Francisco has instituted its youth movement and the early results haven’t been bad in the win/loss column with 14-13 record. The Giants have survived to this point on pitching and barely enough hitting to have winning record. No matter how good the pitching is, at some point San Fran hitters are going to have to do better than being last in runs scored and 29th in on-base percentage (.306) if they expect to be .500 club on the season.

The Dodgers have mashed NL West rivals this season accounting for fast start with 19-6 record. They’ve opened with 4-2 record against the Giants in 2009 and will send ace Chad Billingsley (5-0, 2.21 ERA) to the rubber as he tries to become first six game winner in the National League. There were questions before the season if Billingsley was ready to assume the role of No.1 at the grand old age of 24. He’s embraced the position and has 42 strikeouts through 40 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 18-3 in home games vs. a NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse.

The Giants are +180 money line underdogs in the opener at DiamondSportsbook.com and will send Barry Zito (0-2, 3.99) to the mound. Zito has been one the biggest free agent flops in the last decade and started in much the same fashion this season, surrendering 10 runs in first nine innings of work. Since then he’s looked like the pitcher who used to wear Oakland uniform, allowing three runs in 20 1/3 innings (1.33). The only reason he hasn’t posted a win, is his teammates have tallied a grand total of three runs in those three starts. Interestingly, Zito and San Francisco are 7-2 in road games after a win over the last two seasons. If Zito pitches well again it might mean the Giants are starting to finally get some of their money’s worth from the left-hander. However, Billingsley has pitched well against the San Fran in his career, going 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts.

Game 1 Edge: Los Angeles

San Francisco knows the Dodgers are not the same team without Manny but they understand this is still a talented club with ample firepower. “That team is very good," Giants catcher Bengie Molina said. "They have a lot of young guys who can hit and play the game. In a way, it'd be very unfair to say that they're going to be a less competitive team [without Ramirez]. I think they're going to keep battling and use this as motivation."

The Giants had won 11 of last 16 coming into the series, though dismal 4-9 on the road. They will present Jonathan Sanchez (1-2. 3.80) to L.A. The hard throwing lefty has low to mid 90’s heater with natural tailing movement away from RH hitters. Sanchez is prone to inconsistency and wildness, as noted by walking 18 batters in 21 1/3 innings so far in 2009. When he throws strikes and is around the plate, batters are hitting .188 against him.

The Dodgers counter with Eric Stults (3-1, 4.94), who is no kid at 29 years old and has never found a home with the big club. He’s primarily a fly-ball pitcher, lacking any special out-pitches. He strictly a back of the rotation guy and if the Torre had somebody better to start, he would take Stults place. This contest is more about the numbers and the Dodgers are 10-1 playing on Saturday’s and 17-4 against lefties. The Giants are 3-13 when Sanchez is starting pitcher.

Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles

The reigning Cy Young award Tim Lincecum (3-1, 3.05) brings tranquility and confidence to the Giants team when he pitches. San Francisco has scored five or more runs nine times this season, four when Lincecum pitches. He is one of the few pitchers in baseball that if you are a fan of pitching, you want to watch him make hitters look silly with his overpowering fastball and knee-buckling curve. He will go up against Jeff Weaver (1-0, 1.00), who is on his second tour of duty with the Dodgers and made first start since 2007 last Tuesday against Arizona. Weaver struck out six, walked one and allowed one run in five innings, throwing a season-high 85 pitches. He was in continual trouble with runners in scoring position in four of the innings pitched, but escaped. Lincecum is 3-0 lifetime versus L.A.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

As much fun as it would be to bet on the Giants for big payday, it’s very difficult to bet against Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium right now. Billingsley is very sharp, which should be a win and Sanchez wildness puts more Dodgers on the base paths. Though Stults is far from a sure thing, San Francisco’s lack of production at the plate makes Torre’s troops the obvious play.

DiamaondSportsbook.com series odds: San Francisco +170, L.A. Dodgers -220

3DW Pick: Dodgers

2009 Record – 1-3