CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 6:40 AM

The madness of March continued last night and it might end up really costing different teams a NCAA berth. Kent State was the best team in the MAC this season and having seen them play, certainly was a team capable of beating a higher seeded team with their talent level. The Golden Flashes evidently thought they were ticketed for the MAC finals and were torpedoed by arguably the best backcourt in the MAC presently from Ohio U. The Bobcats duo of Armon Bassett (38 points) and D.J. Cooper built a 40-24 halftime time, survived Kent State comeback that got them to four points and cruised to 81-64 win as five-point underdogs.

If Kent State would have gotten to the conference finals and lost, it would hard to ignore them, however it has been since 1999 that the tournament committee has taken two teams from this league.

The Pac-10 is having its worst season in some time and all the publicity has been negative. Arizona State finished second in the conference, but most still felt they needed to win one more game to assure themselves of a bid. If you haven’t seen the Sun Devils play, their personnel can generously be described as limited, but coach Herb Sendek got more than what could have been expected, which also points towards the weakness of the league.

Right from the opening tip it was obvious Stanford had come to play and Arizona State had not. The Cardinal flew to 15-point lead with just under 12 minutes left in the game and won 70-61 as 7.5-point underdogs. That might have killed the Sun Devils tournament chances and the Pac-10 better hope Washington wins this tourney otherwise California might get the only bid.

One last thing on the Pacific 10. What this conference is going through might not be all that unusual in the future. Chances are UCLA, Arizona and USC will all improve in the next couple of years, yet this league is falling behind in recruiting, doesn’t have the “cool factor” and their tournament is joke attendance wise. Last night’s quarterfinals could not have had more than 3,000 people at the Staples Center, more resembling a SWAC contest than that of a major conference. In L.A. you could draw more than 3,000 people if word on the street was Kim Kardashian was going to jello-wrestle at Venice Beach.

It was not a good day to be on the favorites in the Big East and ACC on Thursday. In the Big Apple, Da'Sean Butler’s straight away, banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer helped one favorite make it to semis in the Big East, as third seeded West Virginia was among the four faves that failed to cover.

Only North Carolina’s ineptness in the final 10 minutes prevented all four underdogs from winning outright in the ACC’s opening day. Georgia Tech won 62-58 over the Tar Heels and either covered by a half point or was push depending on when they were purchased.

In Reno, NV, where sports betting is 100 percent legal, the favored teams from the WAC were 100 percent good, as the higher seeds all covered, and collectively beat the number by over 11 points on average, very chalky.

Overall, underdogs were 24-17 ATS on the day following teams that normally have lines on their contests, with 14 outright upsets.

You might rethink that future’s bet on Syracuse in case you missed it, no team has ever won the NCAA Tournament after losing first game in conference tourney.

Valentine's Day lineup

If you happened to follow our plays yesterday, you did quite well with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS record depending on when you bet against Denver. With no great plays on sides in college hoops, found one on the totals side at 26-5. Kyle continues to romp and has Big 10 (11) play as his best bet. The Top Trend is heavily against one club in A-10 action. We’ll look to duplicate that success today. Good Luck

What I thought today- Even if you don’t like golf, the televised views of Pebble Beach this weekend are truly amazing. I was lucky enough to go to the tournament and play the course the day after the event and believe me, if you are a golfer, don’t worry about the price, it’s a once in a life time experience. The first five holes over at Spyglass are equally as amazing.

Here are two articles that are must reads about the Daytona 500 and the NBA All-Star game. (I had nothing to do with them)

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Free Basketball System-1) Play Over when the total is 119.5 or less, in a game involving two slow-down teams (55 or fewer shots a game) after 15+ games, with one team making 47 percent or more of their shots in three straight contests. The hot shooting team is UCLA and the system is 26-5, 83.9 percent since 1997.

Free Basketball Trend- 2) DuQuesne 1-10 ATS in home games after consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 8-3 on Saturday including his winner on Richmond. His top for today is Northwestern.

Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4

College Basketball Marathon

Starting at midnight Eastern, ESPN will have 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage with enough games to take care of the insomniac and the early and late morning-risers. It is a feast for the basketball bettor, a great way to kick-start another season. Without further ado, here is the complete menu on ESPN, with ESPN2 and ESPNU to also have contests to consider.

11:59E Cal-State Fullerton vs. UCLA (-16.5)

The Titans have the unenviable task of replacing Big West Player of the Year Josh Akognon, however the roster is loaded with nine newcomers many of which are designed to improve rebounding margin which was -4.2 per game a season ago. UCLA will have a completely different look about them with nine freshmen and sophomores. As the season commences, the only familiar name to most people is holdover Michael Roll. Cal-State is 1-4 ATS in last five underdog roles. Cal-State Full wins 68-65 2OT

2:00E San Diego State vs St. Mary’s (-5.5)

San Diego State lost four starters, yet most experts figure the Aztecs will be as good if not better with solid transfers and junior college players meshing with holdovers like power forward Billy White, forward Tim Shelton and guard D.J. Gay. St. Mary’s maybe without outstanding guard Paddy Mills, but Wayne Hunter and Omar Samhan are expected to step up and be the leaders. Matthew Dellavedova could be the next great player from Australia for the Gaels, who are 9-3-1 ATS in non-conference action. St. Mary's wins 80-58

4:00E Northern Colorado vs Hawaii (-5.5)

Northern Colorado lost nine games by five points or less a season ago and they hope starting guards Will Figures and Devon Beitzel can help turn those defeats into wins with more experience. New players will be in the backcourt for Hawaii, looking to increase scoring and be help to forward Roderick Flemings, who has all-WAC talent. The Bears are 14-4-1 ATS in non-Big Sky action, while the Warriors are 10-27-1 ATS in non-conference contests. Northern Colorado wins 81-75

6:00E Monmouth vs St. Peter’s (TBD)

Talk about your early risers! Monmouth welcomes back four starters, including All-NEC guard Jeremy Goode, but lost their big people from a year ago and is 7-3 ATS on the road. St. Peter’s was 6-24 two seasons ago and believes they can finish .500 with a veteran cast back. The Peacocks believe juco forward Jeron Belin could be the reason they have success. St. Pete’s has covered 16 of last 21 games. St.Peter's wins 58-34

8:00E Drexel vs Niagara (-9.5)

Besides St. Peter’s from the MAAC, Niagara is another team from the conference looking to get an early start to the day. The Purple Eagles are perennial contender in their conference and have a veteran backcourt to go along with all-MAAC performer Bilal Benn. Drexel was a surprise team in the CAA last season and will look to build on that foundation with leading returning scorer Gerald Colds and senior Leon Spencer. The Dragons hope to be breathing fire off OT loss to St. Joe’s, yet are 6-17-3 ATS off spread loss. Niagara wins 76-69

10:00E Clemson vs Liberty (+10.5)

Clemson lost a lot of ability from last year’s squad, however coach Oliver Purnell brought in his best recruiting class to play along with holdovers Trevor Booker and point guard Demontez Stitt. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS against teams with winning home record. Liberty was 23-12 last season, but lost talented freshmen Brolin Floyd and Seth Curry, who decided to transfer to bigger schools. Kyle Ohman and Jesse Sanders are main returning starters. Clemson wins 79-39

Noon E Northeastern vs Siena (-8.5)

Siena is the overwhelming choice to make a third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, something that hasn’t happened in this conference in 20 years. Four starters and Sixth Man of the Year in the conference gives the Saints a formidable group. During lunch it would be smart idea to check this contest out and catch a glimpse of Matt Janning, a versatile all-around shooter for Northeastern. He’ll face a Saints team that is 7-1 ATS in non-conference action.

2:00E UALR vs Tulsa (-16.5)

Arkansas-Little Rock bade farewell to four seniors who helped them to back-to-back Sun Belt divisional titles. This means more than ever they will be dependent on coach Steve Shields stifling defensive principles and they are 8-2 ATS in last 10 road games. With Memphis no longer a sure thing in C-USA, Tulsa is ready to move up and claim the league crown. The return of senior center Jerome Jordan and fellow senior guard Ben Uzoh makes this a real possibility. The Golden Hurricane is 24-9-2 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points.

4:00E Temple vs Georgetown (-8.5)

Senior guard Ryan Brooks and junior forward Lavoy Allen are Temple’s only returning starters and they will try to improve upon the Owls recent 1-4 ATS mark against the Big East. Georgetown appears poised to rebound from last year’s disappointing season, with Chris Wright and Austin Freeman giving them explosive backcourt. Center Greg Monroe showed enough to almost enter NBA Draft after freshman campaign but wisely came back for second season. The Hoyas have a ways to go to gain the trust of basketball bettors with 5-15-1 ATS record in last 21 tilts.

6:00E Charlotte vs. Duke (TBD )

Duke has handily won its first two games without its full complement of players; however will welcome back guard Nolan Smith who was suspended two games for playing in an unsanctioned summer league. Veteran players like Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer more than made up for the difference. Charlotte won last night 75-61 over Elon, behind Shamari Spears 23 points. Duke is 9-3 ATS after allowing 50 or less points in last game. This is contest is part of the pre-season NIT and he winner will advance to the semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 25.

8:00E Gonzaga vs Michigan State (-11)

For the first time in years, Gonzaga doesn’t look like a Top 15 team with frontcourt wiped out. Versatile guard Matt Bouldin is the one remaining stud, with Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson solid backcourt companions. The Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS against teams with winning record, though seldom as underdog. What does second-ranked Michigan State do for encore after being national runner-up? Find ways to improve with deep and talent-laden roster under coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 11-3-1 ATS off a by 20 or more.

10:00E Memphis vs Kansas (-11)

How quickly the mighty reload. Less than two years removed from national championship, Kansas is a nearly unanimous preseason No.1. The talent is deep and the addition of guard Xavier Henry, gives coach Bill Self a wing player that can go inside or out, something missing a season ago. Kansas is on 27-9-1 ATS run. Senior G Doneal Mack is the only player back for Memphis with more than 10 starts, as they start a new era with Josh Pastner now as coach. A falloff is expected but how much is to be determined. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference clashes.

Saturday's Hot Plate

We’ve been in a slump all week, time to bounce out of it and I believe we have the ammo to do so. We’ll start in the Big Ten with an 85.7 percent Best System. That is followed by a perfect reverse trend at 0-15. Though I actually like the team to win and cover, I’m off it because of the strong angle. Paul Buck has not one but two Free Plays today. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – It drives me crazy when people gloat about be right on a game they were incredibly fortunate to win. Thursday night I had a push with East Carolina and I got emails from people who had West Virginia at -12.5, telling me what a sap I was for having ECU. I guess I am, since I had the correct side for 58 minutes and only a bad bounce that led to interception cost me the cover. You will always find me thanking my lucky stars when I receive luck like that, not bragging because of unusual fortune.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like MEECHIGAN off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of six more, with a winning record on the season. Since 2000, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Saw this earlier this year and still can’t believe it. Penn State is 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is having an exceptional season in college football with 62-39 record (61.3 percent) on all sides and totals. He won’t reveal his top pick (it’s for sale here) but his next two choices are UCLA and N.C. State.

We have a pair of 4* plays (out of 5) that are a Guaranteed Package in college football today. Be a HUGE Winner today!

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

Betting on Round 1 – Night Time Addition

The day games are either going on or winding down, thus it is time to focus on the eight contests that will make up the balance of day one. For those that didn’t get to see much of the other games, this catch-up time, to see the highlights and be able to pick and choose what teams look best for Saturday’s slate. Take a gander at what lies ahead. Line courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Texas vs Minnesota 7:10E Line –Texas -4, 127

The Texas Longhorns came nowhere close to meeting expectations this season, with not enough outside shooting and poor point guard play. Conner Atchley did not have big senior year and A.J. Abrams found fewer open shots and suffered because of it. Dogus Balbay did emerge as point guard, however has no shooting ability beyond layups. Texas arrives in Philadelphia 4-12 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season. Minnesota’s best days are ahead of them, nonetheless could pull surprise if they can create up-tempo pace. Because they don’t have exceptional shooters, they need transition points and guard Lawrence Westbrook has to score. Though improving, the Golden Gophers are 8-18 ATS as an underdog.

Clemson vs. Michigan 7:10E Line – Clemson -5, 137.5

The Clemson Tigers finished 1-4 SU and ATS and you have to wonder if this team is physically wore out, not having the same depth. Too often their pressing defense looked like the scout team, as the Tigers were easily beaten and opponents made it look like a layup drill. The energy needs to return pronto or quick exit for Clemson, who is 10-26 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more. It’s hard to fathom Michigan is making first tourney appearance in 11 years; however coach John Beilein’s style has proven to be success, as shown in last two years at West Virginia. The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS as neutral site dogs. If you like comparisons in common opponents, Clemson was 4-0, outscoring teams by 22.5 PPG and Michigan was 3-4, being outscoring by 3.6 PPG.

Villanova vs American 7:20E Line – Villanova -16.5, 129

American makes consecutive appearance at the Big Dance, having to play what amounts to a road game against Villanova in there backyard. The Eagles start five seniors and have a special backcourt in Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer. Both are under 6’0, otherwise would be at big time programs based an ability. This ends up being a bad matchup for American as Villanova has three outstanding guards, led by Scottie Reynolds, and terrific frontcourt with Dante Cunningham, who turned into a star in senior season. This is a deep and talented club that is 10-4 ATS against teams with winning record. It should be brought up the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS as NCAA faves.

Gonzaga vs Akron 7:25E Line – Gonzaga -12.5, 132

Gonzaga made a subtle change on offense and it placed them on the right path. Point guard Jeremy Pargo was not having the kind of senior season as presumed and coach Mark Few made the determination the offensive flow was better when Matt Bouldin became the primary ball handler. The Zags raced to 18-1 (10-8 ATS) close, with only loss to No.2 seed Memphis. In the past, the Bulldogs defense came under scrutiny, not now; ranked second is field goal percentage defense at 36.8 percent. Gonzaga is 5-1 ATS recently as chalk. Give Akron credit for trying, they were on game away from NCAA’s the last two seasons, losing in MAC title game with better teams. This time they get it right, with tough as nails defense (59.8 PPG allowed) and they are 7-3 ATS off a cover. Because the Zips can defend, they have a shot; unfortunately, shooting less than 42 percent on the year could cost them.

Duke vs Binghamton 9:40E Line – Duke -22, 137

Duke barely escaped Belmont last year in 71-70 win, but have a much different feel about them in 2009. Jon Scheyer would have been about the last choice for point guard, yet he seldom makes mistakes and has shined. Kyle Singler does a lot of everything for the Blue Devils and Gerald Henderson’s game has gone to the next level. The Dukies for years were superb tournament pick, but have hit the skids with 1-6 ATS record when favored by more than 13 points. That could change with Elliot Williams adding zing to Duke’s on-court presence. Binghamton has a few talented players like D.J. Rivera, who’s a scorer, not a shooter and Tiki Mayben. The tallest starter for the Bearcats is 6’6 which plays right into the hands of Duke.

Oklahoma vs Morgan State 9:40E Line – Oklahoma -16.5, 135.5

Oklahoma finished the year 2-4 and 1-5 ATS, making them among the biggest question marks of the higher seeds. Not having Blake Griffin cost them two losses, but not the defeats to Missouri and Oklahoma State. Inconsistent guard play more than anything has undermined the Sooners who are 5-13 ATS as neutral site favorites. Two big stories for Morgan State, this is their first ever tournament appearance and coach Todd Bozeman is back after paying the price for past misdeeds. Players to watch for the Bears are guard Reggie Holmes and forward Marquise Kately, who engineered upset of Maryland in early January.

UCLA vs VCU 9:50E Line –UCLA -8, 136

The most compelling game of the night session is this encounter. No team has more experience than UCLA, with three starters who have been to three Final Four’s. The Bruins had won five in a row before falling to USC and suddenly they are believed to be vulnerable. Some say the trip East is bad the UCLA, however there body clocks have a fairly normal 7:00 start Pacific Time. The Bruins are 16-6 ATS having won three of their last four games since last season. VCU shocked Duke two years ago with a young point guard named Eric Maynor. He is now a senior and one of the best point guards in the land, with ability to drill a shot or find the open man. The Rams are 16-6 ATS away from home after three or more consecutive wins and are motoring on 5-1 SU and ATS finish. Though he’s still a bit raw, Larry Sanders (Hey Now) could be the deciding factor in VCU’s ability to pull the upset. The 6’10 sophomore learned to play with Maynor and has benefited extensively. The Rams are 6-2 ATS as an underdog in 7.0-12.5 range.

Illinois vs Western Kentucky 9:50E Line – Illinois -4.5, 126

Illinois is on everyone’s watch list for upsets, with incredible ability to not make a basket for extended periods of time. For the Fighting Illini to not be bitten by the upset bug, they must work inside out. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale must present themselves as scorers and Demetri McCamey and Trent Meachem must drain a reasonable amount of three’s, otherwise Illinois falls in the “I told you so” five seed syndrome. Western Kentucky returns to tourney with nice backcourt tandem of A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez. The Hilltoppers are not as talented as last year’s Sweet 16 bunch, however if guards are hot, they’ll be a handful, with 14-5 ATS record when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent). The Illini are much bigger up front and have to take advantage of this edge and are 7-2 ATS off a loss. If they don’t, Illinois will fall prey to Western Kentucky’s 12-1 ATS record in all tournament games the couple of years.

Time to Tip it Off

We were creamed last night with three dreadful plays by the final scores. At least we have a good attitude going into today because of the events that lie ahead. We have a two-pronged system today that is 83.3 percent and has NCAA Tournament play today and tomorrow. For those liking the classic 5vs 12 upset, have a trend that really fits. I bring back the Left Coast Connection because they have another consensus play. Good Luck (I really mean it)

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after one or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4th or higher in the NCAA tournament. This system is impressive 25-5 ATS and gives us Washington and Wake Forest.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Western Kentucky is 14-1 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Though they got it wrong the other day, the LCC has nine bettors on UCLA and none on VCU.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Washington Needs Leadership in LaLa-Land

It’s a huge weekend for the first place Washington Huskies, as they try and add to Pac-10 lead, taking in the scenery of Los Angeles. The Huskies are off a home sweep of the Oregon schools and have budding confidence after ending 15-year losing steak at Stanford two weekend’s ago. Washington has proven this season the sum of the parts is better than the individual components and basketball bettors have profited also with 15-8 against the spread mark tracking the Huskies.

Getting a gauge on Washington (19-6) is relatively easy to do. If the Huskies players are sharing the ball and passing to find the open man, they will have a very good shot at winning. If the Huskies are taking quick shots and doing too much dribbling, a loss is likely.

Once again we find in college basketball, veteran leadership is important. Seniors Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman have been the driving force behind the success of coach Lorenzo Romar’s squad. However, this is far from a two man team. Big time recruit, forward Quincy Pondexter has finally settled in at U-Dub in his junior season. In his first two seasons, he put pressure on himself, with visions beyond Seattle. His focus this season has been being part of the team and is averaging 11.1 points and 5.6 rebounds, being a big contributor for a team that is 10-3 and 8-5 ATS in Pac-10 play.

I think the biggest thing Quincy (Pondexter) has done is taken the pressure off himself," Brockman said. "He's taken the whole NBA thing out of the deal and just said to himself, 'Forget about that. I'm going to think about the team. I'm going to think about our season instead of worrying about my future.' The hard working leader also added, “….this season, Quincy has come in and concentrated more on defense and rebounding and passing, and it's paying off."

After putting a beat down on Oregon 103-84, Washington has covered next five contests after scoring 90 or more points.

After registering four straight wins since losing at Washington, UCLA (19-6, 12-12 ATS) looked like a mirage playing in the Arizona desert, being swept, to fall into second place tie. UCLA’s resurgence had been led by its three seniors, Darren Collison, Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp, but the latter two were ineffective last week. Collison continued his steady play, however freshman running mate Jrue Holiday played like a young player, having more turnovers (7) than points (6) in two games in the Grand Canyon State.

Maybe the Bruins players were a little too comfortable after finding there offense and believed they could just continue on, piling up offensive numbers. This was not the case, as the UCLA defense was tattered for 60 and 50 percent shooting last week and will have to rebound quickly in keeping hopes alive of winning Pac-10 again. The Bruins are 18-8 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has UCLA as 7.5-point favorites at Pauley Pavilion, having won and covered four in a row and posting 14-1 record (8-6 ATS), winning by 22.2 points per game. Washington is 8-3 ATS against teams with winning home record and a victory would be a tremendous step toward securing Pac-10 title, since after USC game Saturday, their remaining four games are all at home. The Huskies are 5-3 SU and ATS in road games and perfect 3-0 both ways as a road underdog.

UCLA coach Ben Howland knows what’s at stake, being three-time Pac-10 regular season champions, "This is going to be a gut-check week for us." His players are going to have to be ready to fight, as Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, while UCLA accrues the second fewest rebounds in the conference. The Bruins have not lost three in a row in over four years and have lost once to Washington at home in 22 years and is 8-3 ATS since 1998.

This Pac-10 tilt will be on FSN in many parts of the country, starting at 8 Pacific and the Huskies better be prepared to defend the perimeter, as they are 3-11 ATS in road games versus three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts.

Best System Play of the Season Goes Today

The Knicks got wiped out in the fourth quarter by Boston, costing us winning day. Not a big college totals guy, but found a system today that is the single best of the entire college basketball season at 93.7 percent. Not going to argue with that figure. Have a perfect Trend also on the amateur side of basketball that is 8-0. Sal from the Left Coast Connection comes back with TWO college Best Bets, riding a 10-1 week. Good Luck.

Also one of the regular readers of this blog and a sharp bettor from the Midwest told me UW-Milwaukee is a very solid play today.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points, in a game involving two up-tempo teams averaging 60 shots or more after the mid-point of the season. In addition these teams must commit 14.5 or fewer turnovers per game, thus proving they handle the ball well. This system is 30-2 (Gulp) 93.7 percent, including perfect 6-0 this season. The game is Virginia and North Carolina and I actually have another system that supports this at over 86 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Denver U. is 8-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Going to cut Sal a little slack since he has been hot on college basketball betting with 10-1 week, not the NBA, which he got wrong here yesterday. He’s giving out two plays, UCLA and Wyoming.

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College Basketball Bettor’s Weekend Preview

How good is Florida, really? That question should start to be answered in their prime time matchup with Tennessee. Having won 18 of first 21 games, the talent is evident and a convincing win in hostile environment might be what bettors need to see, to back the Gators down the stretch. Notre Dame will play their fifth straight ranked team and Pitt is sure to be angry off a loss. Memphis is home trying to extend long C-USA winning streak and UCLA will try to change their luck at home against Stanford, who has had success at Pauley Pavilion. North Carolina and N.C. State used to be the game in the ACC, until Duke came along. The Wolfpack have a huge challenge ahead of them, even at home. On Super Bowl Sunday, a couple of physical Big Ten teams will go at it. Check Bookmaker.com for the last numbers on these contests.


Saturday – January 31

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 12:00ET, ESPN

Points in the paint - this will be the term that will describe the winner of this Big East matchup. Pittsburgh (18-2, 9-6 ATS) has two space-eaters in Tyrell Biggs and DeJuan Blair, who can fill up a lane all by themselves and they will face Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody and his vast array to shots, heaves and tosses. Last season, the Fighting Irish handled the Panthers 82-70, holding Pittsburgh to 40 percent shooting. The Irish did a great job on the boards outrebounding Pitt by eight and the Panthers didn’t help themselves with 11 for 18 from the free throw line.

Jamie Dixon’s club is steadier this season with Levance Fields back running the point and Sam Young is more than just a jump shooter for team that is 17-7 ATS in January the last two years. The loss to Villanova hurt, however Dixon’s teams have through the years not dwelled on losses.

Notre Dame (12-7, 5-9 ATS) looked like Top 10 material back in Maui in November, however have become stagnant since league play opened and have lost four in a row. The lack of bench means heavy minutes for starters and the defensive prowess of last year has evaporated with teams shooting 43 percent. Coach Mike Brey’s club is 14-5 ATS in road games versus defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 39 or less percent after 15 or more games on the year.

Houston at Memphis 1:00ET, CBSC

Conference-USA has reclined back into being a nice, lower level league among the heavyweights with Memphis (17-3, 11-7-1 ATS) no longer considered a national championship threat this season. Still it does leave some intriguing confrontations to consider like Houston (12-6, 9-6 ATS) visiting one of the barbeque hubs. The Cougars have found a combination of players that are 10-4 as starters, with ample firepower, averaging over 78 points a game. Scoring is no issue, but coach Tom Penders has to lean on his squad to play more defense as the shoot-outs against the better teams has led to defeats. Houston is 16-6 ATS on the road versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game after 15 or more played.

Memphis has now won 48 straight C-USA contests and it might be getting harder for this year’s opponents to stop the streak. Freshman Tyreke Evans has moved to point guard and the offense is running smoother. Antonio Anderson is more comfortable in his role in the offense and his defense is as asphyxiating as ever. If there is one area the Tigers have fallen visibly, it is in rebounding, not having a big guy like Joey Dorsey to clean out the lane. The oddsmakers’ numbers this season have been more realistic and Memphis is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season.

Memphis is 15-2 and 10-6-1 ATS as a favorite, winning by 16.9 points per game.


North Carolina at N.C. State 3:30, ABC

North Carolina State (11-7, 8-5-1 ATS) has a problem preparing for in-state rival North Carolina and it is not something easily cured. The Wolfpack has been getting killed on the boards. They have been out-rebounded in four of their last five ACC games and really crushed in last two, by 15 boards in overtime escape against Miami and by 19 in loss at Boston College. In the loss to the Eagles, they gave up 15 offensive rebounds. The Tar Heels have plenty of athletes to climb on the boards, making it imperative the N.C. State to at least create a stalemate on the glass. The Wolfpack is 10-2 and 5-3 ATS at home.

North Carolina (18-2, 9-10 ATS) almost was administered the five finger death punch by Florida State, but survived 80-77 in Tallahassee. The Tar Heels had problems finding open shots in the second half, scoring just nine field goals after the intermission. The drop in intensity allowed the Seminoles to score 33 points off North Carolina turnovers. Expect Tyler Hansbrough to come to play after scoring only eight points, breaking his streak of 55 consecutive games in double digits. The Tar Heels are 9-1 and 6-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill this season.

North Carolina is 8-3 SU and ATS in Raleigh since 1997.


Stanford at UCLA 3:30ET, ABC

Former Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins was patient and waited for the right opportunity to leave the nest and gravitated towards a university that had similar values. The move has paid off thus far with Stanford (13-5, 13-4 ATS) playing good basketball despite the loss of the Lopez twins. Forward Lawrence Hill and guard Anthony Goods have been the bell-cows which Dawkins has leaned on. The win against rival Cal was imperative after losing twice in the State of Washington; however losing to Oregon State at home again raises questions. The Cardinal is 9-1 ATS on the January road this last two years, after losing to USC by a single point as six point underdogs.

It isn’t that UCLA (16-4, 9-10 ATS) is a bad team, their not, they just can be befuddling at times and give uneven efforts. Josh Shipp is a good shooter, but will let poor fundamentals undermine his effectiveness and be streakier than necessary. Darren Collison works hard to set-up teammates and doesn’t look for his shot often enough. One real positive has been Michael Roll settling nicely into his sixth-man role and has scored 10 or more points often since Pac-10 play resumed. The impressive 81-66 win over Cal, showed what UCLA is capable of. The Bruins are 11-1 and 5-6 ATS at Pauley Pavilion this year.

Amazingly, Stanford is 8-3 SU and ATS at UCLA recently.


Florida at Tennessee 9:00ET, ESPN

This is the third of three very demanding tilts for Tennessee (12-7, 7-8-2 ATS) still trying to find defensive identity. The Vols floundered most of the early part of January and the players were recalcitrant to coach Bruce Pearl’s heedings, but changes were made in schemes and the players did some soul-searching among themselves. If there is a quality about Pearl’s teams, they need to resemble him, full of swagger. Tennessee is built around the talents of Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism. They are the starters and finishers for Orange and White, nevertheless the rest of the players have to contribute in the other parts of the game for the Volunteers to be at their best. They are 21-11 ATS as a home favorite or pick, however that record is quickly falling with four home losses in Knoxville this season.

Can a team with a solid a record as Florida at 18-3 (7-7 ATS) still be a mystery? The answer is yes. Much like the polling process in Florida, receiving the tabulations on the Gators has been slow to come by. Results are being formulated by SEC play and contests like this at Knoxville create a greater understanding. Nobody is wondering about Nick Calathes and his abilities and answers the critics. "We don't mind the doubters,” the sophomore point guard said. “We’re just looking to get better every day in practice." Even with last Sunday’s convincing thumping at Vanderbilt; the Gators are 5-3 and 3-4 ATS away from home.

Florida is 3-8 and 4-7 ATS at Tennessee.

Sunday – February 1

Penn State at Michigan State 12:00ET, Big Ten Network

For Super Bowl Sunday, the college basketball action is expectedly light; nonetheless, this should be a Big 10 bruiser. Michigan State (17-3, 9-8 ATS) is well-known for its aggressive nature and dishing out a little mayhem on the hardwood. Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan can play rough under the boards and the Spartans like to bump and grind on the defensive end. What makes them the best club in the Big Ten is shooting ability on the perimeter and exceptional speed, for a team in this conference, with Kalin Lucas running the point. Sparty is 26-9 ATS at home playing good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games.

Penn State (16-5, 10-4 ATS) is no longer the pushover they have been for the better part of there stay in the Big Ten, with several victories of merit. The Nittany Lions are showing progress on the road also at 3-2 and 4-1 ATS. The team revolves around senior forward Jamelle Cornley, who is there only reliable inside threat and can step out also and knock down jumpers. When other Penn State players make shots, the Lions are dangerous and they will need to be with 0-8 (3-5 ATS) mark at East Lansing.

College Football Game Writeups

The ACC and Conference USA will crown their official champions on Saturday afternoon, in what should be two games unlikely to have starker contrast. About the only thing to need to know is the ACC has an expected total of 38.5 and the C-USA encounter is 65.5. Two outstanding traditional rivalries will be renewed with the Army and Navy matchup (always a well disciplined game) and USC and UCLA meeting again, with the Trojans seeking to make a return date to the Rose Bowl on the first day of the New Year. Click here to read more.

Top Wagering Info for Dec. 4

Gosh we love boring here, another 2-1 day at 3Daily Winners. The big Texas vs. UCLA game tonight has a perfect angle favoring one of the combatants. We have an 88.8 percent money line NHL system riding this evening. The guy that gave us the Air Force winner in college hoops on Thursday, has two more free plays today. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line like New Jersey, revenging a same season loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days like Philadelphia. This puck system is 24-3 on the money line since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) UCLA is 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Free Selections -3) The same person from the Left Coast Connection that gave us the winner here yesterday is on Kent State in basketball and Rutgers in football tonight.

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How Real Sports Bettors Spend Black Friday

While watching television this week and starting Brooke Burke withdrawal on Dancing with the Stars, I saw some ridiculous store is opening at 4:00 am Friday morning to get my business. The only retail business I’m doing at that time of the day is at a 24-hour Denny’s or Micky D’s after carousing the night before. My only goal is to wake up in time to place a few bets on football and basketball before the first game starts.

While the few remaining people that actually have a couple hundred dollars in their saving accounts and about the same left on credit card limits, goes out to spends the rest, with the knowledge the new year could bring unemployment, you like me don’t have a care in the world other than making sure the TV works, there’s beer in the fridge and three pounds of turkey your mom or relative sent home for the weekend is still cold.

Their might not be a more appropriately termed expression than playing in “the losers bracket”, on the day after Thanksgiving at 10:30 am Eastern in Orlando, in the Old Spice Basketball Classic. This follows from playing basketball ON Thanksgiving. (I wonder if you get the Old Spice gift pack swag for showing up) I’ll probably pass on that and get ready for West Virginia and Pitt in the backyard brawl and take West Virginia in big revenge game.

At 12:30 Eastern on Game Plan or if you live in the South somewhere, the Egg Bowl will be played. For those unfamiliar, this is Mississippi State vs Mississippi. In case you haven’t read or heard this, how they came up with the name Egg Bowl was from a trophy they came up that was egg-shaped to present after the game to stop fighting between the fans of each team, that’s nuts. Nothing nuts about Houston Nutt taking Ole Miss to first bowl game since some quarterback named Eli followed his old man there in Oxford. I like that the Rebels have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and are 6-0 ATS in November the last few years.

At 2:30 Eastern, CBS turns on the way-back machine and has Don Criqui and Dan Fouts do the LSU at Arkansas contest. Both announcers are well past their prime, which this year is true of the Tigers and Hogs. Remember how were told all the speed the SEC has and this is the best conference known to mankind. If it’s so special, how come a team supposedly as powerful as LSU has only held Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane to less than two touchdowns? I talked to a SEC scout about two weeks ago and he said Arkansas definitely doesn’t have the same talent as the last few years, but in his eyes, the Razorback players don’t play nearly as hard for Bobby (vagabond) Petrino. I know Sportsbook.com has LSU as 4.5-point favorites and I like the fact Miles minions are 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite.

At about 3:30E on ABC, two Big 12 teams who used to sit at the big table for the holidays, will meet when Colorado travels Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Once the Big 12 was formulated, this became the marquee matchup in the Big 12 North, with these two schools having battled for Big 8 titles in the late 1980’s and early 90’s. Both are trying to make a comeback bigger than the Sex Pistols. Nebraska is 18-point favorite in this meaningless game and I’ll bite with the Children of the Corn 18-6 ATS in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals. I’ll also back the Huskers since the defense, though still bad by Blackshirt standards, had 65 painted on them in Boulder last year on this day.

Did you know they are playing they are playing the preseason NIT championship at 4 Eastern on Friday? Can’t figure that out, but will have to keep flipping channels while opening more adult beverages and stuffing face with leftovers. (Is it me or is turkey like chips the day after Thanksgiving)

I have to admit it, I can not stand Fresno State coach Pat Hill and I’m looking forward to Boise State blasting them into the next universe commencing at 6 Eastern on ESPN also (2). Seriously, have you ever heard or seen a coach who puts more emphasis on big non-conference games than winning a league title! This is his 12th year in Raisin Country and he tied for first in the WAC twice in his tenure and nothing since 1999. Yet he gets all these accolades for beating the occasional BCS team or coming oh so close. When Hill first took over at Fresno State, he said he wanted to build a program like Florida State’s. In the end he has, mediocre. The Wussdogs have been outscored by 87 total points in their last three trips into Boise. With the Broncos 9-1 and 8-2 against the spread in their last home game and gorgeous 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less, I’ll back Boise.

By 9:30E, I’ll be really bloated, looking more like Micky Rourke and catch a little of the UCLA and Arizona State game. I’ll probably be asleep before the first quarter is over, but I’ll rest comfortably knowing UCLA is 10-2 UNDER after playing three straight Pac-10 games.

This whole Black Friday thing is way overrated; I’ve got a great day planned.


Writer Red Wydley made this holiday contribution.