The first Monday of August

With a record of 137-79, we trot out today’s MLB system that is 84.1 percent. The Top Trend on the board features the New York Yankees and the Free Pick will be up before long. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I’ve been a huge fan of Taco Bell for a long time (please don’t hold that against me) and though I have my favorites, when something new comes down the pike I’ll usually give it a go. As a TB expert, I can say without question, the new Cantina Tacos are the absolutely worst thing I’ve ever eaten there. They’ve had winners and others that were fair, but in my book, these are definitely Play Against.

The GUARANTEED Plays have a selected team that wins 84.6 percent of the time off recent results and tonight’s projected loser falls right in line with 1-11 mark against certain types of pitchers. Take home today’s GUARANTEED Winner.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Houston, a weak NL offensive team scoring 4.1 runs or less a game, against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is in the 4.20 to 5.20 range, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. How about since 1997 this MLB system is 37-7.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The New York Yankees are 18-3 after seven or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken cooled for awhile but was 6-1 over the weekend and has Oakland on the money line and run line tonight.

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A Monday with a tale of a broken heart

Our first losing day in some time on Sunday, still leaves us with impressive 115-61 record. Today we have two Top Trends from the same NL contest. The Best System is at 81 percent and the Free play is from a hot baseball bettor. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday – I’ve been bothered all year with extra inning losses, 6-16 for the season, accounting for almost 15 units lost. However, as bad as that is, yesterday’s White Sox loss was the toughest of the season. Chicago held a 6-3 and closer Bobby Jenks was 20-0 in save situations. He went to the mound as defenseless as a Democrat at a Tea Party rally and he and another Sox pitcher gave up four runs in the bottom of the ninth at Minnesota and never registered an out. A very difficult defeat.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Cleveland, an AL team with .260 or less BA, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's a start. Since 1997, 81-19, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Washington is 2-15 in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent and Cincinnati is 9-1 at home games after a loss by two runs or less this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC is 12-5 in last 17 MLB bets and has Detroit breaking out of slump.

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Top Totals System in NL Central Matchup

After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to have a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite when they start to play like Superman.

The Reds were off a .500 homestand but just the thought of those Houston uniforms gave the Astros a feeling of superiority. Cincinnati has won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park.

Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds, facing their greatest nemesis.

Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.

Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.

“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”

Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.

Houston is a -170 money line favorite; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.

Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.

Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.

The First State Parlay: A Solution For Delaware’s Sports Betting Quandry

A federal appeals court shocked everyone yesterday by yanking the rug out from under Delaware’s plan for single game sports betting. The three-judge panel decided that Delaware (state motto: Our Lawyers Suck) could only offer parlay bets, and not single game wagers as planned. They also have limited the wagering to the NFL. In their infinite wisdom, the jurists interpreted the 1992 federal law banning sports betting except in grandfathered states Nevada, Delaware, Montana, and Oregon as limiting Delaware to the wagering options they offered before 1992. Delaware offered a few months of NFL parlay card betting in 1976.

The governor and state officials are understandably upset, as are officials at the three Delaware racetracks that are in the midst of multi-million dollar renovations to turn portions of their facilities into Vegas-style sports books.

Delaware politicians who were counting on a revenue boost were stunned by the unexpectedly far-reaching decision. Fortunately for these officials, I have their solution, it’s called “The First State Parlay.”

Delaware is permitted to offer parlay wagers on NFL football, but not single game wagering. So why not create a parlay that comes as close to possible as mimicking single game wagering. Here’s how it works.

The “First State Parlay” requires the bettor to pick one team at the prevailing pointspread. That team must win to complete the first leg of the parlay. The bettor then picks a second game where they are allowed to move the line 47 points. The bettor must lay 11 to 10 odds on his parlay bet. 11-10 is the standard for single-game wagers in the sports betting industry.

Let’s show an example of how the “First State Parlay” would work. In the first week of NFL action, let’s say Vinnie Cheesesteak from Philadelphia wants to drive down to Delaware Park to bet $110 to win $100 on his beloved Eagles at +2 over the Panthers. He must combine the Eagles at +2 with a second game that he gets to move 47 points, so he takes the Bears, currently a 3-point dog, at +50 over the Packers.

If the Eagles cover +2, and the Bears can stay within 50 points of the Packers, Vinnie Cheesesteak wins $100. If the Eagles don’t cover the spread he loses $110. If either game lands right on the number it’s a push, and his stake is refunded, no matter the result of the other game.

While this comes very close to replicating single game wagering, by stipulating that the second leg of the parlay can be moved by 47-points, and no more, Delaware can claim that there is still an element of chance. In the playoffs following the 1999 season the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Miami Dolphins in the what proved to be the last NFL game for both QB Dan Marino and coach Jimmy Johnson. If you took the Dolphins from +7.5 and moved them 47 points to +54.5, you would have lost your bet by a half-point when the Dolphins were filleted by the Jags 52-7.

Is the “First State Parlay” an obvious workaround to try to turn single game betting into parlay betting? Yes. But it seems to fit into the new parameters set by the court. Delaware should hire some new lawyers and have them consider it as a potential solution.

By Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.

Could Delaware Sports Betting Be A “First State” Failure?

Delaware has legalized sports betting. Governor Jack Martell signed legislation permitting it and The First State’s Supreme Court has determined that betting on individual games, as well as parlays, will be legal. Operations are scheduled to be in place by the start of the football season. With table games on the way this winter, Governor Martell estimates that $50 million in fresh revenues will hit the state’s coffers in 2010.

The wagering will take place through Delaware’s race tracks, which have become “racinos” in recent years with the addition of slot machines. The betting will take place on the premesis (no apparent provision for phone/online) and the racetrack will act as the bookmaker.

Obviously, the Delaware racinos welcome this opportunity to attract new bettors. In a press release, Delaware Park COO Bill Fasy said “We believe that the single game sports lottery, with a proper betting line, will provide an exciting entertainment option for our guests…”

(Presumably, the use of “a proper betting line” was a great relief to sports bettors who feared that an improper betting line would somehow find it’s way into use at Delaware Park.)

Is Delaware Ready? Do the racinos and politicians of Delaware know what they’re doing? They better. But both the regulators and those who will be taking the action are a long way from having things ready to go, and even knowing how things will work. Nobody in Delaware is prepared to answer questions on what kind of bet offerings will be available and what the limits will be. It is also unclear whether the state will collect tax money based on volume of wagering or profitability.

And chances are the folks in Delaware are overestimating the profitability of their sports betting operation. One unpleasant aspect for the house is the opportunity to lose. Bookmaking is a skill, and risk management is imperative to a proper sports betting operation. And bettors in target markets may already have more convenient options.

Let’s take a look at some things that could lead to Delaware sports betting being a disappointment.

Unattractive Propositions: Does a “single game sports lottery” include not only sides but totals, money lines, teasers, buying points, etc.? While there will be more money bet on sides than anything else, people are used to betting on the other offerings. Delaware better have a well-rounded product offering, because they have more competition, and potential competition, than they realize.

Potential Legal Competition: New Jersey governor John Corzine is suing the federal government to repeal a law that makes sports betting illegal for all but four grandfathered states (Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana) that have had sports betting in the past. Of those states only Nevada has had full scale betting. The others simply had parlay card offerings.

Opinions are mixed as to how serious New Jersey is about this, but they certainly want to protect Atlantic City wagering interests. And Pennsylvania is keeping an eye on things as well. Rather than a long-term exclusive, Delaware could have merely a head start on sports betting.

Quasi-Legal Competition: Bill Frist’s celebrated “slide it into national security bill” legislation that supposedly made offshore wagering illegal (it actually addressed banking, not the actual gambling) has had little effect on those who actually want to bet. Plenty of people are still betting at offshore sports books and poker rooms as some foreign entities and even banks have picked up the slack for American banks who can no longer transfer funds into the online operations.

Illegal Competition With A Technological Edge: Legislation targeting funding of offshore wagering has been a boon for illegal bookies, with many who left the business now back in the game. A majority of those bookies now offer online wagering for their customers via service bureaus located outside the US. Bets are made online or via phone, then the weekly settling up occurs, as it traditionally has, at the local tavern. Delaware’s sports betting relies substantially on Philadelphia and South Jersey players. Will players enjoying the convenience of playing online on credit feel compelled to make the trip to the actual sports books to put their cash on the counter?

Poor Management Leading to Losses: Both government and racino types are used to their betting having a guaranteed 17%-25% (depending on the wager) skimmed right off the top of each mutuel pool in horse racing, as well as a guaranteed cut for the house programmed into each slot machine. There is no such mathematical certainty built into sports betting.

While making bettors lay $11 for every $10 they are trying to win gives the house a good head start, winning as a bookmaker is no sure thing. Online and Nevada bookmakers have found that out the hard way. Consistent winners betting big money have shut down the occassional poorly managed offshore sports book and have led to tremendous consolidation among Nevada sports books. Knowing that sports books require active and intelligent management to win, casino companies take all their properties in Nevada and turn them into affiliates of a central book, cutting the overall costs of operation and putting their (theoretically) best talent in charge of the overall bookmaking. But even those steps have not led to a surge of profitability for Nevada bookmakers.

Smart bettors can overcome the 52.38% poinstpread winners needed to win money from the bookmaker. And there are smart bettors who make money on a regular basis by doing so. That’s part of the dance required to set the proper wagering limits. It’s tough to manage the risk of the smart bettors while welcoming the unsophisticated action of the weekend plunger.

The fact that Delaware sports books could have periods of time where they don’t only not win, but lose, is a part of sports betting history in the state. As Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Weekly dug up, the original parlay offerings in the state of Delaware were shut down suddenly in late 1976 after bettors took advantage of arbitrage opportunities created when the Delaware lines and those in Vegas differered significantly. It is likely that lines weren’t adjusted to account for what was late season injury/weather information. This is the kind of mistake that is unlikely to be made in the information age, but there are a lot of new ways for sharp bettors to beat up on sports book mistakes.

Will Puny Profits Lead to Patience or Panic? Bettors in Nevada actually beat the casinos with their basketball wagers in the month of April. This shows that while earnings are highly likely, there will be fallow periods for the sports books. Winning streaks against the spread by local favorites like the Eagles, Giants, and Penn State could lead to losses for periods of time. Are the racinos ready for that? And if the contribution to the state is tied to profitability, how will state officials react to less revenue than is projected?

Some Nevada casino operators consider sports betting a convenience to their guests, knowing that the sports book is likely to earn less per square foot than any other part of the gambling floor. On the other extreme is Bally’s in Las Vegas, whose palatial sports book sits empty, closed down for not earning enought money. Which view will prevail in Delaware, and will that view be the same for both the racinos and the state?

Success Is No Lock: The legalization of sports betting in Delaware is far from a slam dunk for the state. It will take solid bookmakers backed by patient management and understanding state government regulators to make it work. Count me among the sports bettors looking to put them to the test this fall.

This article was written of Kevin O'Neill of Strategic Sports Publishing and RealWorldSports.com. An expert handicapper and researcher, Kevin is the recipient of numerous handicapping honors, awards, and top 10 documented rankings.

Kevin’s third book, Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace, is available at a discount from his office. Additional titles include Football Betting: Strategies for the Smart Player and Football Betting’s Cutting Edge: New Strategies for a New Era.

Look for more from Kevin later in August.