What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Time for another 3-0 Day

Took a 1-1 day to start the work week and we’ll see what we can do about improving on that figure. Willie has been doing well in the NBA of late and has his Best Bet for Free. The Top Trend is in Big East action and so is the Best System, which is 85.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – When you wager daily, you are going to make mistakes for a variety of reasons. Yesterday I was 0-1 in both CBB and the NBA being too conservative, not trusting my own numbers and judgment and passed up three plays I could have won on. Live and learn.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Marquette when the line is +3 to -3, against a team outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game in March. Does 23-4 ATS put a smile on your face?

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Cincinnati is 2-12 ATS playing against a team with a win percentage of 80% or higher the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Willie of the LCC is 8-3 on NBA sides in last 11 and likes Boston to break out of the slump.

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Let's continue the winning on Sunday

We took our record to 17-6 in most recent plays after 2-1 Saturday. We bid farewell to Kyle for now, thanks for the nice run. In his place is Slick Rick, hitting 60 percent this week and he likes a Big East underdog. The Top Trend is 89.4 percent and we have a 31-7 totals play in nationally televised tilt. Good Luck

What I thought Saturday – Will have more to say on Monday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Over on teams like Boston when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, scoring 98-102 PPG, against a defensive team surrendering 102 or more PPG, after allowing 85 points or less. This total system is 31-7, 81.6 percent the last 14 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Oklahoma City is 17-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning by 7.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 30-18 the last week in all his bets and prefers Marquette with the points.

Time to start checking out the College Hoops

With only one contest on the collegiate gridiron Saturday, sports bettor’s interest start to wander more specifically over to the hardwood. This is the first full weekend of televised college basketball and a number of stirring contests are on tap for watching and wagering enjoyment. If you happen to Christmas shopping or lucky enough to get to stay home while somebody else fights the crowds, take the time to get in the mood for college hoops and enjoy.

Saturday, Dec.12

Kentucky at Indiana 12:00E CBS

Coach John Calipari’s club finishes a challenging non-conference slate the last eight days taking on Indiana. Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) has defeated North Carolina and Connecticut this past week, as his young players get ready for SEC play. Coach Cal has also shown his stern side as head coach, recently reprimanding his most prized pupil John Wall. As you might expect, Wall has only heard people praising his basketball abilities since his youth and seemed genuinely shocked when Calipari expressed his opinion about his play. That sends a very positive message to vets like Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and lets the other talented first year players know who is in charge. Big Blue will have to play defense against Indiana, since they are 2-7 ATS off a spread cover.

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-4 SU & ATS) are more talented than a season ago, however they are far from a finished product for coach Tom Crean. With a squad filled with young players, Indiana fans will have to take the good with the bad. Guard Maurice Creek and Christian Watford have made the steadiest contributions and the coach is thrilled about the effort Verdell Jonnes III is giving, working hard on the glass and transfer Jeremiah Rivers is adding stability in the backcourt. The Hoosiers are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Kentucky.

Ohio State at Butler 12:00E ESPN

The Buckeyes (7-1, 6-2 ATS) got the clinching victory over Florida State 77-64 for the Big Ten in their first ever win against the ACC and moves on to face another rugged opponent, this time on the road. Ohio State’s forward Evan Turner has been a force (now injured) and Jon Diebler is emerging from early season shooting slump and burying three’s again. Coach Thad Matta’s club lacks size and 6’8 Dallas Lauderdale is doing his best to be a factor in the post. Despite tremendous start, sophomore William Buford has been lost and he could be important against balanced Butler squad. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

It’s not that the Bulldogs (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are playing poorly; they just weren’t playing Butler basketball. Coach Brad Stevens team may have played in the top early season tourney in Anaheim, but were sloppy in ball-handling and took far too many poor shoots in finishing with 1-2 record. In the loss against Georgetown, they shot 31.4 percent and had no answers for Hoyas center Greg Monroe. What Butler has to do is get back to basics, making the extra pass for the layup or the wide open three-ball shot. This is another big opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain stature, especially at home, if the knock off Ohio State. Butler is 20-11 ATS in non-conference games under coach Stevens.

LaSalle vs Kansas 2:00E ESPNU

Top ranked Kansas (8-0, 3-2 ATS) has not entered any tournaments the last couple of years, preferring to played selected opponents at home, on the road or at neutral sites. Everyone understood the Jayhawks talent deserved a top ranking; however teams that were supposed to push them don’t give the appearance they will. UCLA offered little resistance and upcoming games against Michigan and California might not provide the competition needed for Kansas before Big 12 play. Swingman Xavier Henry is proving to be the perfect compliment as freshman that could keep Kansas at or near the top of the ranking all season. With its high octane offense (90.4 points per game), the Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS when they score 81 or more points.

Though the crowd will be pro-Kansas in Kansas City, at least it’s not a true home game for the Jayhawks, which has to make LaSalle (6-2,2-3 ATS) feel a bit better. The Explorers do have talented individuals like guard Rodney Green, its top scorer. Kimmani Barrett and Jerrell Williams both have the ability to fill up the basket and freshman big man Aaric Murray will find out how much progress he’s made going up against Cole Aldrich. LaSalle has to maintain poise and if they do, the Explorers could improve on 19-9 ATS record as underdogs of 10 or more.

Georgetown vs Washington 2:00E FSN

This is a solid opening matchup for the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) has a trio of players that can matchup with any in the country. With Greg Monroe patrolling the paint, Austin Freeman making things happen from the wing and Chris Wright handling the rock, the Hoyas can ball. Where the view turns to 20-50 vision is when one of the trio has an off-night. Julian Vaughn has the ability to be reliable scorer and rebounder and sophomore Jason Clark has the length and quickness to be lock-down defender. The bench, what bench? G-Town is 11-19 ATS in all lined games over the last two seasons.

Coach Lorenzo Romar’s U-Dub squad is acquiring some good battle scars. Washington (6-1, 1-6 ATS) has been pushed by Wright State, Montana and lost to Texas Tech in OT, while the starters have learned to play together and a feisty bench has added a spark. Leading scorer Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are going to be at the forefront, nonetheless junior Venoy Overton and long-range shooting reserve Elston Turner add greater flexibility for team that is 37-20 ATS away from home vs. foe outscoring opponent by eight points or more a game.

Marquette at Wisconsin 5:00E ESPN2

Shhh, quiet, if you listen intently, you can still here a couple dozen Badgers fans partying from the upset win over Duke. As per usual, nothing much was expected from Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS), however few work the chalkboard better than coach Bo Ryan. Guard Trevon Hughes is the leader of Badger attack and he is complimented by a group of players that don’t make mistakes and play defense that always leads opposing player into anther defender. This conflict is HUGE deal in the Badger State and Wisky is 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) was supposed to disappear, after losing “triplets” from last season, whom all finished in the Top 10 in scoring in Golden Eagles history. But senior forward Lazar Hayward is having none of that talk. Marquette will have size issues all year, but the amount of quickness will catch more than one unassuming competitor off-guard. Darius Johnson-Odom has a nice upside and swingman Jimmy Butler finds ways to score. Coach Buzz Williams team isn’t going to win the Big East, nevertheless, they will have say. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 SU in Madison, yet have four covers. The UNDER is 6-1 in last seven encounters.

Virginia Tech at Penn State 7:00E ESPN2

No its not another Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest, this was just part of the regular scheduling between these universities. Virginia Tech (7-1, 2-4 ATS) has already claimed one Big Ten victim, Iowa, and seeks another on the road. The Hokies tend to be erratic offensively, as there are few answers beyond guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen. It is tantamount neither gets in foul trouble, which occurred in loss to Temple. Watch the line closely on this matchup, with Virginia Tech 3-16 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.

The Basketball Prospectus website has come with something called the “Degree of DeChellis”. Named after the Penn State coach, it factors an element that the Nittany Lions continually out-play --per possession performance. The basic principle of this exercise is Penn State (6-3, 4-4 ATS), under DeChellis, continually outperforms year after year expectations and common game situations. He has them playing competitively, despite being out-gunned most nights. He’s not on anybody’s top coaches list, but he works with what he has as good or better than any coach. DeChellis’ teams are 6-0 ATS playing a team with a winnng record.

Purdue at Alabama 9:00E ESPN2

Purdue (8-0, 5-3 ATS) is enjoying its highest ranking in 13 years in the Top 25 and they are starting to look like are going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten. In winning the Paradise Jam and handling Wake Forest, they have shown diversity in style of play. The offense has a vast array of ways to score inside or outside and the defense can play lockdown opposing team’s offensive sets. One difference over the last couple years that has manifested itself, the Boilermakers have another gear, a Usain Bolt if you will, with E’Twaun Moore at the controls. Purdue is 6-1 ATS on the road after three or more home games.

By most accounts of those that follow SEC basketball, Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS) has underachieved the last several seasons, held hostage by the health of point guard Ronald Steele and former coach Mark Gottfried’s apparent inability to get the most out of team. New coach Anthony Grant is already turning a few heads with the Crimson Tide’s smarter play. He’s leaning on veteran guards like Mikhail Torrance and Charvez Davis, especially with Andrew Steele out with stress fracture. This could be early signature win Grant is looking for and the Tide is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997.

Sunday, Dec.13

Cincinnati at Xavier 7:00E ESPNU

There are special rivalries all across the college basketball landscape, but when the teams are in the same city and the players facing one another in playground battles most of the year, this takes the emotion to the next level. This Queen City battle is bitter and often very physical, which suits Cincinnati (6-1, 3-2 ATS) just fine. Guard Deonta Vaughn is the unquestioned leader of this team. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop, Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright are a stellar supporting cast. This team could be a much larger factor in the Big East than previously given credit for, especially if the lauded frosh Stephenson blossoms. The Bearcats are respectable 22-15 ATS as underdogs.

Xavier basketball has been on a high plane the last few years, averaging better than 27 wins per season, and former assistant Chris Mack is entrusted with keeping the program rolling. Guard Jordan Crawford and center Jason Love are the leading scorers for the Musketeers (5-3, 4-3 ATS), however beyond this twosome; points are iffy game in and game out. In losses to Baylor, Marquette and Kansas State, Xavier shot below 38 percent. The Musketeers have won eight of last 12 encounters (7-4-1 ATS), including five of last six at home (3-3 ATS).

Value Plays from System in NCAA Tourney

With the March Madness now upon us, it is time to prepare your self for the first round of hoops wagering action. With half the tournament played out in the first two days, you are presented with your best opportunity to profit significantly. Many people have different ways they use to select winners; here is another method I’ve used that has allowed me to win 13 times in the last 16 years in the first round.

What I have done for years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played through February 15. This is the center piece of future action. Once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action.

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago versus what they are now that they are goin’ dancin’. Take their previous position in their league standings and once again compare them to what they were when the regular season ended. Lastly, we want to know where they finished in their conference tourney. Let me show you what this should look like:

Purdue 19-5 25-9 6-3 3rd 2nd 1st
No. Iowa 18-8 23-10 5-2 1st 1st 1st

In the example, both teams played pretty well in the last month of the season. Because of how the Big Ten played out at the end of the year, Purdue moved up one spot in the conference standings during the regular season and played very well in winning conference tournament. Northern Iowa was a persistent performer, finishing first in all categories as Missouri Valley Conference champions.

Moving on, what we are seeking is potential value with underdogs that can cover spreads and win outright. If two teams have played well to close the season like North Carolina (5-2) and Radford (6-1), this would not qualify as a play. The same would be true if they were ordinary to close the season. Texas (5-4) and Minnesota (3-4) would fit this criterion. What were searching for are contrasts, one team on uptick and the other apparently fading.

Here is an example of the type of situation we are looking for:

Utah 18-7 24-9 6-2 1st 1st 1st
Arizona 18-8 19-13 1-5 5th 6th Lost Quarters

Utah was unchanging in playing in a descent league, staying the course and finishing first in all three categories, including playing well to close the year. Arizona despite having three potential NBA players was extremely unimpressive to finish the year. Many in the media like Arizona because of their talent, which is a legitimate argument; however if a team is not playing well against one that is, you have to at the very least take that into consideration.

Another winning situation involving this method would be a mid-major conference team and a school from a large conference.

Marquette 21-4 24-9 3-5 2nd 5th Lost Quarters
Utah State 24-2 30-4 6-2 1st 1st 1st

The Golden Eagles lost one of their main components in Dominic James, when he broke a bone in his foot. Though Marquette has gamely played on, they are not the same team without their point guard and not enough scoring or defensive pressure has been forthcoming off the bench. Utah State is out of the WAC and works diligently to take good shots, accounting for 49.8 percent mark from the field and 39.8 percent from behind the arc. The Aggies have held opposing teams to 62.1 points per game on the season and could have a chance to pull the upset.

In my sixteen years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, one being last year. What caused last year’s failure was the lack of upsets, which was later bore out as all the top seeds went to the Final Four since the field was changed to 64.

My belief is that will change this year, when examining history, Memphis is the only team with a minimum of three losses. The last time this many tournament teams had as many losses in the higher seeds was exactly 70 years ago, 1939.

Without further ado, here are the teams that could be spread winners in the first round based on this system. – Utah, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Temple, Morgan State and USC. (Note- Alabama State technically qualifies, but leery about play-in game).

Betting the Big East Quarterfinals

For many, the first two days of the Big East tournament were like finger food, not bad, some more tasty than others. Starting today, everybody can take a seat because the main courses are about to be served.

Top seeded Louisville makes its first appearance since being crowned regular season champions last Saturday night when they take on Providence. The Cardinals come into the tournament playing as well as any team in the country having won seven in a row and 17 of last 19 (13-6 ATS). Coach Rick Pitino would enjoy pulling double of winning both titles, but leaves a very telling quote to at least consider about his team.

We want to win, we want to win another championship,” he said. “But we just spent three months to win a championship. We’re not going to beat ourselves up over three days.” Read into it what you want. The Cardinals are mind-boggling 39-13-2 ATS in Big East action and 9-3 ATS after they’ve covered the spread.

Providence turned up the defense late in the game to pull away from DePaul 83-74, earning first Big East tournament win in six attempts. Though they held the Blue Demons without a field goal for almost eight minutes, Providence will need a much stronger overall performance to take down Louisville. The Friars are 3-8 ATS in last 11 contests and face Cardinals defense that allows just 38.9 percent shooting away from home. Providence opened as 8.5-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com and is 0-4 SU and ATS against the Cards the last dozen years.

The other afternoon matchup has Marquette facing fourth seeded Villanova. The Golden Eagles had lost four in a row before spanking St. John’s 74-45 yesterday. Marquette did exactly what they needed to; they jumped on inferior opponent, regained a measure of confidence and the starters didn’t have to go hard for 40 minutes to conserve some energy. The Golden Eagles realize if Dominic James doesn’t get hurt, they would have had the bye instead of Villanova and they are 8-2 ATS in neutral site conflicts.

Villanova has been in the shadows of larger Big East foes, yet arrive in New York having won 11 of last 13 (9-4 ATS). The Wildcats have two things going for them that should allow them to emerge victorious. Villanova’s bench averages 19.3 points per game, as coach Jay Wright has talked for six weeks about having seven starters. Conversely, Marquette having already played a game and get almost nothing from its bench players, placing more pressure on starters to have big games. Nova is 9-1 ATS against teams with 60 percent or higher win percentage and is a 1.5-point favorite. Villanova lit up Marquette for 102 points in 18-point victory on Feb.10 and the favorite is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS since 2006.

Round Three of the Backyard Brawl commences in the evening at MSG. West Virginia was extremely aggressive from the opening tap and buried Notre Dame with three point barrage. The Mountaineers made 11 of 20 treys, but overall were not especially effective in shooting just 35.9 percent from the field. West Virginia may be 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less three straight games, but they haven’t taken on the likes of Pittsburgh in next contest.

The Panthers have already beaten and covered their rival twice this season. If there was ever a beast in the Big East tournament it’s Pittsburgh, who has been to the finals seven of the last eight years. Pittsburgh has been accused in some circles of placing too much emphasis on winning this event, which has led to flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Guard Jermaine Dixon has an answer for detractors.

“We want to win it,” guard Jermaine Dixon said. “People probably think it’s going to be easy for us if we lose, it would be easier for us going into the NCAA tournament. But we definitely want to win the Big East tournament.

“It’s March now. So it’s time to go undefeated. We’ve got to go undefeated now so we can win everything.”

Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and are a four-point favorite over West Virginia.

To close out the quarterfinal action, a surging Syracuse club will do business with Connecticut. The Orangemen are putting the ball in the basket with great regularity, shooting 56.9 percent against Seton Hall in winning by 15 points. Syracuse has now shot 50 percent or higher in five consecutive games, all wins and covers.

The task becomes more challenging, just like it was Feb.11 when the Orangemen were shutdown completely, in shooting 31.7 percent against Connecticut and held to season low 49 points.

“We can’t let them dominate us,” Syracuse guard Jonny Flynn said. “(Thabeet) basically dominated the game … from a defensive standpoint. I think we just have to go in there stronger. … Really go at the mindset we’re not going to let this guy control the game from a defensive standpoint.”

Big East Co-Player of the Year Hasheem Thabeet blocked seven shots in that game and controlled the glass with 16 rebounds. Connecticut is off another loss to Pittsburgh, sending their record to 0-6 ATS the past few years. UConn opened as 3.5-point favorites and went to five, which is curious, seeing they are 5-16 ATS as neutral site favorites.

I was 3-1 yesterday, taking record to 5-3 ATS and like the chalk in the afternoon session with Louisville and Villanova. I’ll back Pittsburgh in a close game, but take the five with the Orange. Until tomorrow.

Big East Tournament -Second Round

It won’t go down as a historic Big East Tournament game, however it was memorable that DePaul ended 18-game losing streak and came from behind to upset Cincinnati. The Blue Demons played like they cared for the first time in a long time, shooting 49.1 percent and got the 800-pound gorilla off their back.
Providence will be up next for DePaul and the Friars can play at fast pace averaging 79.1 points per game. It should be noted Providence scoring average drops to 73.8 PPG on the road and they come in on 3-7 ATS run. DePaul has renewed energy and suddenly with nobody paying attention, has covered five of six. Bokmaker.com the Friars as 8.5-point favorites with total of 144 and they are 4-11 ATS in neutral sites. Providence won the earlier matchup, however the Blue Demons are 5-0 ATS as underdogs of late.

Saw the St. John’s upset coming, being in the Big East tournament for the first time in five years. Georgetown players had already made their minds up about getting to the NCAA tournament and play with the same enthusiasm. Marquette would be best served to jump on St. John’s early and deflate them before they get into the game. The Redmen are 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent) this season. Marquette has lost four in a row and but is 7-2 ATS at neutral sites and is a seven point pick to advance.

Notre Dame was the only Big East team with a remote chance to still make the NCAA tournament field that won yesterday, giving a workmanlike performance in covering over Rutgers. The Fighting Irish will be finished unless Luke Harangody doesn’t come out of shooting slump. The 6’8 junior made just 3 of 18 shots yesterday, continuing poor performances. Ryan Ayers continues to be a third scoring option for Notre Dame and Tory Jackson is penetrating again. West Virginia is 21-10 (13-15 ATS) and hasn’t had a terrible loss all season. Shooting the ball is the key for the Mountaineers. They are 2-7 and 1-8 ATS when they convert less than 38 percent of shot attempts. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Irish, who allow opponents to make 45.5 percent. West Virginia is five-point favorite and is 1-9 ATS when favored by 6.5 or less. The Under is on 8-0 run when these two meet.

In the round two nightcap, Seton Hall is a 6.5-point underdog after 21-9 second half spurt allowed the Pirates to overtake South Florida. Jeremy Hazell led the charge, scoring 12 of his 23 points during the period and he’ll need another big performance. Seton Hall is 9-3 ATS as an underdog and will have to dial up the intensity against Syracuse, who has caught fire, winning and covering five of six. Guard Jonny Flynn spearheads the Orangemen’s attack and they are 7-1 ATS as favorites.

Yesterday I was 2-2 ATS and will take DePaul, St. John’s, West Virginia and Syracuse today in wagering action.

Three Sunday Plays and another tale of woe

Had a tough loss on Marquette, losing in overtime to fall to 1-2 yesterday. If this wasn’t so sad it would hilarious. Some of you who receive my personal plays (you can do so by signing up) have heard my previous disgust on this subject. Yesterday, I personally was 5-5 betting college basketball with two overtime losses (Marquette and Austin Peay). This brings my season to date betting record in college hoops overtime games to 1-14-1 ATS!!! I went back and looked up how many games did I deserve to lose and I had two favorites that were -8 or higher, thus were lost causes. But in every other case, I was giving no more than four points or on the receiving end of points. At this point I’m no longer angry, just amazed at my bad luck.

The Top Trend was our lone winner and today the MAC has an intriguing possibility. Eric of the Left Coast Connection is on nice streak picking underdogs and has one as Free play. No systems at 80 percent or better today, however found a pretty good one in college hoops on a higher seeded live dog. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON neutral court teams as an underdog like Northern Iowa, after two straight games making 50 percent of their shots or better, against opponent after a game where a team made 50 percent of their 3-point shots or more. This non-qualify system is 32.9, 78 percent, dating back to 1997.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Ohio U. is 2-13 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Eric of the LCC has hit his last six underdog plays in college basketball with three outright winners and is playing Duke today.

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Saturday Betting Info and free advice

An improvement for Friday with 2-1 day and Willie gave a free winner. Today he flips over to the NBA trying to build that bankroll further. The Kansas Jayhawks can win the Big 12 outright with a win; does the Top Trend give us a hint on how they might perform? Also in college basketball, have an 81.2 percent system in the Big East and no UConn and Pittsburgh are not involved. Good Luck.

I understand not everybody is whack job like me, but I would recommend watching about 30 minutes or more of these smaller school conference championships. It really can provide insight for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, if a team is worth taking with the points or could be blown out.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Syracuse off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. With this 26-6 ATS system going on Senior Day in Milwaukee, no way they don’t send Dominic James out a winner at Marquette.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas Jayhawks are 12-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Willie of the Left Coast Connection was 4-1 in all sports last night, raising his record to 14-5 on current run and is taking the Detroit Pistons to keep winning.

Fighting Irish favored in challenging spot vs Marquette

Notre Dame had the nation’s longest home winning streak snapped at 45 games by Connecticut and has to turned around in less then 48 hours and try and prevent a two game losing streak at the Joyce Center in South Bend. They will have the unenviable task of having to be defeat long time rival Marquette, who has unblemished record in Big East action. The Fighting Irish have lost six of last nine to the Golden Eagles, with just three covers.

What has hurt the Irish (12-6, 5-8 ATS) is two important elements. Last season Notre Dame played above average switching defenses in holding opponents to 41.1 percent shooting. With virtually the same cast back, teams are now converting on 43 percent of shot attempts.

On offense, Notre Dame has two options and little else. Potential Big East player of the year could be Luke Harangody again, who has a vast array of ways to score points. Outside, guard Kyle McAlarney is their only true threat these days and when he is 3 for 15 like he was against UConn, coach Mike Brey has few options to turn to. Starters Tory Jackson, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland have not been consistent performers in Big East play and have often been left alone for open shots they fail continue to make. The bench has failed to supplement the starters, as Luke Zeller and Jonathan Peoples have provided little else than giving players rest. The Irish are just 1-5-1 ATS in last seven Monday assignments.

For Marquette (17-2, 7-6-1 ATS), no problems finding points from their lineup. The terrific trio of Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal and Dominic James are thriving as veteran players. Coach Buzz Williams is having an exceptional debut as head coach as his team has won nine in a row (5-2-1 ATS), having the poise to be patient when situations are tenuous. Any of the guards are capable of taking over a game when needed and a fourth reliable element has emerged making the Golden Eagles all but unbeatable of late.

Lazar Hayward may be an undersized power forward at 6’6; nonetheless he is a big time talent. Hayward scores 16.5 points per game and drops 39.2 percent of shots beyond the arc; placing opposing defenses in a real jam who to focus on. It’s no wonder Marquette is 10-4 ATS on the road.

Bookmaker.com has opened Notre Dame as 3-point favorites and it is crystal clear who the linemakers believe is the better team by the spread. Marquette takes care of the ball and is 22-10 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers and is 9-3 against the spread if the home team has a 60 percent or higher home win percentage.

Irish players know what’s at stake, “(Three) losses in a row in the Big East, that’s what everyone’s focusing on right now in this locker room,” said McAlarney. “We need to win.” Notre Dame is 14th in conference in points allowed at 70.1 and must do a better job defensively. The Domers are miserable 0-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game after 15 contests on the year.

This is the opener on Big Monday on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern and Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS off three straight losses against conference rivals.

Betting College Hoops Totals Successfully

There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.

In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?

While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.

When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.

Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.

Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.

The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.

I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.

When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.

Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.

It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.

If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.

A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.

Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.

To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.

The basic creed for winning betting college hoops totals is to know thy teams.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is noted basketball expert.