Are Tired NBA clubs Good or Bad Bet?

The professional basketball season is long arduous task for the players. The 82-game season has a number of nights where the travel is too tough, the sleep too short and the coach’s preaching too boring. For as long as people have been giving advice on how to bet and win in the NBA, one of the most (over) used terms is “a tired team”. What constitutes a tired team?

There are many different ways to mentally and physically tucker out a NBA squad, one of the cruelest is four games in five days. This used to be far more common than it is today, though several teams will still end up with one on the docket. Another is eight or nine games in a two week period. The games themselves are exhausting enough, but there is the morning walk-thru’s or shoot-arounds, possibly a quick film session, where the assistant coaches found a previously unknown weakness to exploit. This all takes a toll.

The most common way teams are wore down these days in three games in four days, with last two back to back. To date there has been 222 such occurrences in the NBA, an average of about seven per team. The league’s schedule-maker has a tricky task, trying to juggle dates around car shows, rodeo’s and empowerment seminars. In researching the third game in four days this campaign, maybe it’s just a coincidence (not really) but the teams fitting this criteria play the last game on the road better than 74 percent of the time (166 road – 56 home).

Now that we’ve established what a supposed tired team should look like and what they are up against, let’s move on. In reading thru various forums for years, a common description those that sell picks will use is the aforementioned - tired team. In the three weeks before the All-Star break, on 59 occasions, coming from 27 different cappers, some form of the word “tired” was used to describe a NBA team and in EVERY situation, these were Play Against teams. This had the feel of a handy way to describe a condition, but as old as a dudeen.

Though I have no axe to grind with those that make a full or part-time living selling sports wagering information, I became curious enough to want to find out if what they are saying is actually true both SU and against the spread.

The research of all 30 teams was broken down this way, playing three games in four days, the last two consecutively.

*Off a SU win
*Off a SU loss
*As a home favorite
*As a home underdog
*As a road favorite
*As a road underdog

The initial aspect was to find out how these NBA teams fit compared to normal circumstances. The so-called “tired teams” are 91-131 SU, 40.9 percent. For the season, all road teams play at 40.1 percent clip and visiting clubs matching this system are 54-112 SU, a much lower 32.5 percent SU record, which in theory is quite logical, thank you Mr. Spock.

This in turn leads to all home teams winning 59.1 percent of the time in 2009-10, yet clubs at home and reportedly tired are 31-25 SU, down to 55.3 percent winning percentage, which correlates to conventional reasoning. The next question is what about against the numbers the oddsmakers put out?

This is where facts and reality meet.

Let’s review areas already mentioned and see how the numbers shake out. Road underdogs are 36-84 SU, winning just 30 percent of the time, seemingly a poor wager. Yet when sifting thru all the losing numbers, these dogs are not nearly ugly as they appear with 58-58-4 ATS record. While 50 percent is not the breakeven point of 52.4 percent, these numbers do not add up to making many, if any at all spread wagers on road underdogs.

Supposedly worn out road favorites are 25-19 SU, a healthy 56.8 percent, yet are only a slightly better than average bet at 23-20-1 ATS. The most important way to look at this angle is if those providing sports wagering information say road favorites are a bad bet playing a trio of games in about 96 hours, the last two back to back, well, it’s just not true, at least this season.

Home teams don’t receive a whole of play from the league in this case and while the favorite and underdog roles are in sharp contrast straight up, they are pedestrian in nature against those setting the lines.

Home favorites are sparkling 27-12 SU, yet dull 20-19 ATS. Picked up the phone and called a long-time friend named Tony who has booked, been on both sides of the counter in Nevada and lives a quieter life in Laughlin, while still making daily trips to casinos to place his bets. I asked Tony why these home favorites don’t often cover, despite solid winning records.

“Typically these are overvalued home teams who are actually tired. They would go thru the motions for 40 minutes and when it is time to win the game, they turn it up a notch and pull through. This is very true against inferior competition.”

This led to another similar question, coming from the opposite direction. Home underdogs are 4-11 SU in this same variable of games and days, yet are 7-8 ATS, why would this be?

“Douglas my friend, very simple, your numbers match up with league averages of home underdogs, which at my last count was running about 50-50 against the number (118-115 ATS). Let’s face it, there is a good reason why teams are home dogs, they’re not very good and teams playing them will not take them very seriously and cover as often as not, making this horse crap bet, if you know what I mean.”

The last two areas of concern were how these NBA teams performed the night after a SU victory or defeat. In each instance, the team was generally unable to muster the energy, though as noted, most of the matchups were away from home.

Teams off a win are 46-53 SU; yet don’t provide an inkling of opportunity to cash on them with 49-48-2 against the spread record.

When a NBA squad off a loss is faced with this circumstance, the numbers would have you believing this a wonderful opportunity to build up the bankroll. Their record is a mere 45-78, 36.5 percent SU. This looks like a sure-fire way to profit, however, instead of this being a negative opportunity to play against a team; it’s actually a positive one! Despite their mediocre record, these teams are 63-57-3 ATS, suggesting the oddsmaker is shading them for public consumption as a worn out club.

After all the digging, not one truly useful angle except this. Teams playing three games in four days, with the last two back to back and the third game is a pick, the road team is 0-4 SU and ATS. Needless to say, the sample is hardly worth the wager.

The real lesson is this, the next time you read about a play against team in the aforementioned situation, you will already know it is not a winning play. The only thing “tired” is using the word to make an unsubstantiated point.

Not your ordinary sports handicapper

Kevin O’Neill operates Strategic Sports Publishing in Atlanta, offering publications and services to those interested in sports handicapping and wagering. Kevin has published books that are intelligently written and designed for the sports bettor who has thirst for knowledge and genuinely wants to be a better sports player. Kevin is well-respected within the industry, not being a shameless self-promoter, rather, building customers and loyalty through hard work and delivering useful winning information. Kevin’s accomplishments include a 56 percent college football record of the past six years, several Top 5 finishes with The Sports Monitor and he has an always interesting reading website called Realworldsports.com.

Here is an interview with one the best in the business.


Doug Upstone: You have long been one of the most successful sports handicappers in the industry, what methods have allowed you to stay on top?

Kevin O’Neill: That's kind of you to say, Doug. I think the most important "method" is not being beholden to a single method. Different forms of analysis will have value for a while and most will come around to being properly reflected in the marketplace, which depletes their value. While it's important to have a good defense, a balanced offense, and be well-coached, you have to look for changes in the sports that you handicap. For instance, several years ago I would have said that the running game (both offensively and defensively) is a lot more important than the passing game in handicapping matchups, even in the NFL. There's no way you can make that statement today. Things are always changing in every sport, and you have stay ahead of the curve.

DU: What in your background led you to doing this kind of work?

KO: As a kid I was a sports fan, and I liked statistics. I used to bet small amounts with a friend and we would ride our bikes down to the barber shop every week to play a dollar parlay card. I realized that I had a good feel for it. So I'd always bet on sports, but I didn't intend to get in the business. After publishing a couple of articles on sports betting in the early-90's I was encouraged to self-publish a little book on football betting in 1996. It sold a surprising number of copies pretty quickly and people really seemed to like it. All of the sudden people were writing to me and asking me questions, asking me if I sold picks, etc. So being in the business is kind of a happy accident. It just happened organically from people liking my work. I was also helped by several people to get exposure. People like Tim Trushel, Jeff Nelson, Marc Lawrence, and the late, great Mike Lee all were interested in what I was doing and supported me. Some of the early online guys like Oddswiz.com and Heath Boutwel helped me out as well.

DU: You recently had another Gambler's Boot Camp; can you explain how a sports bettor could value from attending one of these?

KO: I've known Fezzik, the pro sports bettor who won the Hilton contest last year, for a number of years and every time I'm out in Vegas we would get together for dinner. I found myself writing down a couple of things after every meeting and I think he benefited from some stuff I would share as well. I thought it would be a good opportunity to teach a small group of people about how to pursue the handicapping and wagering process at a pretty high level. He didn't want to do it and I hadn't really thought much more about it but then he called me out of the blue this year and was suddenly amenable to it. It's been a great experience, we get some pretty sharp attendees and some other guys who know a decent amount but are really eager to learn. It's a good process to tell what you do and then have to explain why it is done that way. We just did one and the preparation for it really gave me a head start on this upcoming football season, both in handicapping and refining some of my wagering techniques.

DU: Kevin, you have written three books related to sports wagering, the latest - Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Money in a Global Sports Marketplace. Without giving away all the juicy details- please explain how this book would be valuable to the sports bettor?

KO: I think if you're interested in a subject, you really need to be trying to learn from people who know a little bit more about it. I'm proud that from what people tell me, the beginner and intermediate guy learns a lot from my books, while people who bet for a living will tell me that there's usually a nugget or two in there for them, even if they're experienced and have a high level of expertise. I've actually got a juicy -if I can steal your word- little ebook coming out this fall that I think people would like and if they get on my mailing list at http://www.footballannual.com/ they can get it at no charge.

DU: You publish a newsletter called the Maximum Profit Football Weekly, what makes "The Max" different in the marketplace?

KO: I think what really differentiates it is that it stands on its own as a valuable product. It's not just a vehicle to sell picks, and in fact, there's far less promotional content than other newsletters. I've also got some pretty serious contributors in Dave Fobare, Erik Scheponik, and Matty Baiungo who do a very good job and give people some real food for thought.

DU: Kevin, I also know you write an article for the Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Yearbook, where you pick the conference and division winners for college football. I’ve always liked your “Spotlight Team” previews from each conference. The two most interesting one’s to me were Illinois and San Jose State this upcoming season, can you share your thoughts.

KO: Years ago Marc asked me to do those for the annual magazine, and the process helps me get ahead of the season. I’ve always enjoyed sitting down and doing research early on teams, which helps me formulate ideas on teams for the upcoming season.

Illinois is not a strong defensive group, with the secondary likely the biggest problem. But some of those guys were big recruits, so they may develop. But Ron Zook has a ton of firepower offensively. Quarterback Juice Williams is back for senior year and he’ll be throwing to talented wide receivers like Arrelious Benn. Zook brought in Mike Schultz from TCU to be new offensive coordinator and Schultz has stated he wants offense to play fast, which is, of course, what every coach in America is saying right now. Illinois has talent on defense; it’s just a question can they step up. If not, it could be shootout after shootout for the Illini, particularly if they keep their promise about a new pace on offense.

San Jose State has an outstanding coach in Dick Tomey. After starting 1-8 with a dormant program in 2005, Tomey is 20-17 and 21-14-1 against the spread since. He has 14 returning starters, the most experienced club he’s had. San Jose State should get toughened up playing at USC and home against Utah, which should have them ready for conference play.

DU: Besides Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC, any other teams you see that could play for the BCS title?

KO: Conceivably a team from the ACC could be undefeated if the conference comes up really weak. If Virginia Tech finds some offense and their defense is good, they could such a team, though I expect them to lose to Alabama this week. Georgia Tech gets Clemson, Virgina Tech, and Clemson at home and are ridiculously tough to defend. If Ohio State can take advantage of the true freshman QB at USC they could be in the mix, but everyone’s tired of seeing them get whipped up on in the champion game. But I’m reaching with some of those teams, because I do agree with the premise of your question, the difference between the top four teams in the polls and the rest of teams’ seems to be a huge gap.

DU: In the NFL, Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin and John Fox teams have been great plays on the road, any reason to think that won’t continue?

KO: It seems like the best coaches in all of sports all do well on the road. Andy Reid and Philadelphia is another team that fits over the years. One possible explanation is everyone knows these are the best coaches and there teams tend to be overvalued at home, making it difficult for them to cover point spreads at home. It wouldn’t surprise me if these teams and coaches are still covering on the road this upcoming season.

DU: What does Kevin do for fun?

KO: My answer would have been a lot different a few years ago, but right now I just love doing stuff with my kids.

DU: What is your favorite book or movie that you read or seen that left impression on you?

KO:"It's a Wonderful Life" is my favorite movie, because Jimmy Stewart helps me to remember my dad. It also reminds me of the power we have to touch those around us. So it's kind of for personal reasons, but it's also a lot less corny than people think. He goes to some pretty dark places before the people who care about him pull him back out.

As far as reading goes, I read a ton for work but try to work in some investment books, simply to get a feel for how top traders (who are like bettors) and analysts (who are like handicappers) approach their work. I also like the international thriller genre and I read a little theology as well. I've got a bunch of biographies stacked up that I'm sure I won't touch until we're done with football and basketball.

DU: I notice it seems you have low-key presence for someone who has been as successful as yourself, why this path?

K.O: It seems like the people in this business who are constantly throwing a parade for themselves really don't fare all that well when it comes to the bottom line results for their customers. But I'm also able to do so due to the structure of my business and the tremendous loyalty of my customers. You can't buy my picks online, and you can't buy my service for a day or a week, you have to be a member of my service. So I enjoy the luxury of not having to get up in the morning and have to come up with some game to sell on the internet. Being able to just do the work for my customers is a much better way to spend time than trying to remember if I've had my Conference USA Game of the Month yet this month and then try to write copy that will out-hype all the other guys on the web sites. When your focus is on the results for your customers, a daily marketing routine really gets in the way. I don’t envy the guys who have to do that every morning.

DU: What is one key aspect most football bettors miss?

KO: Getting the best possible numbers and arranging to play for reduced juice. For a guy betting $25 to $50 a game, it might not be worth it to shop around for the best lines and pick up a few extra net units a year. For someone who wagers to win beyond just the entertainment value, they should be much more focused on getting the right numbers. This could searching for lower juice, betting earlier to have better line value or taking advantage of sportsbook promotions to maximize money outlay.

In fact, I recently had conversation with OddsWiz about breaking down the variables in looking at -105 vs.-110 and what it could mean in long term money saved on sports betting. The math is pretty staggering over the long run. I’ll probably do something about that on RealWorldSports.com sometime soon.

Having a slow, unsophisticated local guy isn’t the worst thing in the world, but those types are harder to find these days.

DU: Kevin, what is one piece of sound advice you would pass along to any sports bettor?

KO: Develop a coherent strategy. That could mean focusing on an individual sport or conference with a given sport. For most sports bettors, they have jobs and they try to shot-gun analyze every game on the board in college and pro football, it is very difficult to do. If you really want to become an expert, I would specialize. I find the best people in this business are specialists, not generalists.

I’m a specialist myself. I focus on college and pro football and college basketball and the NBA. I do this full-time. A person with limited time should focus on specific area, possibly like where they live. I’m in Atlanta, so the SEC and ACC and maybe even the Sun Belt are natural areas. Because of the internet, you can have the same fan experience no matter where you live. Someone may be transferred to Atlanta from the West Coast and could still be a Pac-10 expert if they wanted. Biggest recommendation for those with time that is more limited than mine, be a specialist.

DU: Great insights and having followed your career from a distance, you’ve delivered the goods as expected. Thanks for your time and good luck this football season.

KO: Thoroughly enjoyed it, Doug. Keep up the good work.

Picking Winners in College Football

Before any sports season starts that I am going to be betting on, I try to find as many angles as I can from any and all sources that I believe can give me an advantage in betting on the team that will cover the spread. Some handicappers look at the fundamentals of a team such as how a team blocks and tackles, stops the run, etc. Others look at situational aspects such as how a team, any team, does after a win as a road underdog and now they are favored. Others look at specific team trends, such as the bad ATS (against the spread) record Fresno State has had after a loss.

The bottom line is that it really doesn’t matter how one handicaps, all that matters is whether you are cashing tickets. I like to find some high level filtering approaches that help me put teams in early categories of “play on” or “play against”. Naturally, as a season transpires, teams can move from one category to the other. In some sports, there is credibility in the premise if you can pick who is going to win the game straight-up, you will have a winning year betting. In college football last season, including bowl games, the team with the most points at the end of the game had a 565-202 record against the spread.

Of course you must remember that any underdog that won a game outright obviously covered the number in that game. College football underdogs last season won games straight-up 23.1% of the time. Last season there were 30 teams that covered the spread at a rate of more than 60% for the season including post-season play. Only five of those 30 teams, 16.7%, had a straight-up losing record. Two squads clocked in at .500 records, both 6-6 for the year. The combined SU record of these 30 teams was 275-128, 68.2%. Collectively, they beat the number 67.8% of the time, 257-122. If teams with winning records do such a good job in beating the oddsmaker's line, do losing teams have a strong tendency to have a poor ATS mark? To quote the former governor of Alaska, “you betcha!”

Teams that finished with a below 40% ATS record for the 2008 campaign in college football only won outright 143 times out of 382 games, a 37.4% frequency. The rate that you cashed a ticket betting on these teams was even lower, a 30.2% ATS record. Of the 31 teams that fall into the “below 40% ATS category”, only 7 had winning records with one coming in with a .500 slate.

So, just being able to pick which team will win a game outright should help you increase your winning percentage betting on college football. As noted above, teams with winning records have a better shot at having a winning ATS season. And, just the opposite is true with losing teams dropping more games against the spread than they win. It would be advantageous if we could determine what a team’s final record will be in 2009. Is there a method to project what a teams’ won-loss record will be?

Obviously, one can put many, many hours into studying a team and evaluating their schedule to try to determine what their final record might be before the season kicks-off. This is very time consuming. There is a short-cut to help determine whether a team will win more or fewer games this season compared to their SU record last year.

First, note which teams’ won-loss record improved or worsened by three games or more from the season before. Looking at how teams did in 2008 compared to 2007, 44 of the 120 FBS schools won-loss records varied by three or more games between the two seasons.

Starting with the 2003 season and marking each season’s record, there were some very interesting results.If a team won three or less games from the previous season, there is a very strong trend that they will improve their record the next season. Actual numbers show these teams that dropped down three or more wins from the previous season have the same or a better record 85.1% of the time in the coming season. Over the past four years, this has happened 63 out of 74 times. In this scenario, only 11 teams out of 74 have had a worse record the following year. Some of the teams that suffered a three game or more drop in wins last year are Tennessee, Michigan, and Central Florida.

On the flipside of the equation, when a team improves by three or more total straight-up wins from one season to the next, there is a trend definitely worth noting regarding how their won-loss record will be this year. After a three or more jump in the number of seasonal wins from the previous year, teams fail to improve their win total 80.3% of the time in the following campaign. Eighty-one teams have had a three game or more improvement since 2003, but only 16 of them had a better record the next year after such an improvement. Three of the 24 teams that had such a jump in 2008 and could fall in season wins this year from the previous season are Rice, Minnesota, and Ball State.

The stats and trends I have mentioned are more tools one can use in handicapping college football. The method of looking at the differential in straight-up wins from one season to the next can be beneficial for bettors who like to place wagers on a team’s season wins number. No matter how you do it, having a road map at the beginning of a season on how you believe every team will perform for the year is beneficial to building your bankroll.

Written by Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority.

Interview with a Hot Handicapper

Rocky Atkinson, the Rocketman, is a professional handicapper who has been around the block. He knows the ins and outs of the game and is having a year most handicappers and sports bettors would only dream of. It would take up pages of space to list all the accomplishments of the Rocketman and would suggest viewing his website for detail at RocketmanSports.com. As Rocky put it, he may be “old school”, but sports bettors know, winning never gets old.

Doug Upstone: Rocky, you are having a monster year, after many years of success. What are you doing differently then in the past?

Rocketman: I haven’t changed a whole lot, if things don’t do well for a certain season or sport I tinker, overall still doing about the same thing.

DU: When you say you tinker, what do you tinker with?

RA: Let’s take the NHL for example; this has been my best year in the NHL EVER, in any sport, by units won. I took an idea from Major League baseball and added it to my NHL handicapping. It’s really worked out; I’m up +137.7 units right now.

DU: I checked around and see you leading in the NHL at every sports monitor by a large margin, awesome job. While on the topic of hockey, the NHL has gone to the conference semi-finals, what thoughts do you have on the four series about to commence?

RA: In the Western Conference, Vancouver is extremely hot right now. Vancouver swept St Louis four games to none in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Vancouver has now won seven games in a row heading into Round 2 against Chicago. Vancouver has had a ton of rest as they haven't played in nine days. Is that good or bad for them? I'm thinking good in this case. Vancouver has won eight of the last 12 meetings with Chicago the past three years and 15 of the last 22 in Vancouver since 1996. I feel like Vancouver gets the job done in this series but it won't be easy.

Anaheim is coming off an incredible series against San Jose as they ousted the #1 seed in the West in six games. Detroit swept a pesky Columbus team, winning the first three games by three or more goals. I'm expecting a letdown from Anaheim here in this series and Detroit definitely has the better team and I feel is now the team to beat this year. Detroit is 24-7-2 at home vs Anaheim since 1996 giving them a huge edge there. Detroit is playing with seven days rest while Anaheim is playing with three. Detroit should get the job done easy here in this series, but the price is too high.

DU: What about the Eastern Conference?

RA: It took Carolina all seven games to beat New Jersey, but they got the job done. Carolina is a team that seems to step it up in the big games. They are 8-3 in the second round games since 1996, while Boston is only 2-4 in the same time frame in conference semis. Boston swept their series against Montreal beating them four games to none. Boston has won the past five meetings against Carolina; however Carolina is 19-8-2 at Boston since 1996. Over the past three years, this series is tied at six wins each. I'm going to lean to Carolina in this series to pull the upset. You will be getting good price in this one.

In the other series, I'm looking for Pittsburgh to upset Washington. The Rangers took Washington all the way to a Game 7 in their series while Pittsburgh got by the Flyers in six games. Washington had to win three in a row to escape elimination. Pittsburgh has won eight of the last 12 meetings in this series including a very nice 5-1 record in Washington the past three years.

DU: Great info, mentioned correlation you’ve made between baseball and hockey, could you explain further?

RA: What I do in those two sports is I’ve developed power ratings; I call them The Rocketman Line. I do this for each sport. I take my lines and compare them to Las Vegas line and when I have a differential that meets my criteria, I look deeper into that game.

DU: In talking about baseball, I know you are off to sensational start in that sport also, what are some of your keys to beating baseball and getting through the daily grind, since baseball has 15 games, five of the seven days of the week for the most part.

RA: The one thing I do in baseball and in every other sport actually, that differs me from other handicappers, is they think they have to have something to put out and sell. Most will put out a ton of plays; the fact is if you don’t have anything on the shelf, people surely can’t buy it. I try not to worry about that. I feel that proper money management is a huge ingredient to the overall winning recipe. I don’t play a game because it’s on TV, just because its Monday Night football or the playoffs. I don’t force a play that isn’t there; I simply pass and wait for something better that comes along the following day. In baseball, I’ve only has 18 plays for entire season. I’m 14-4, 78 percent and my top Major League baseball plays are 8-0, those are my four and five unit plays. In fact, I just checked Sports Monitor standings and I’m No. 1 there.

DU: Beautiful. I saw on your website, you have a line that says –Stop Gambling, Start Investing- explain what you mean by that.

RA: I give out plays, but I also try and teach people about proper investing. A gambler and I used to do this, will play every NFL game on Sunday. You are definitely going to play the Monday Night football game, trying to double down to win or try and get your losses back. That’s not smart; you have to be like more of an investor. If I release a play, bet that play for the exact amount of units I give out, don’t bet with your heart, don’t bet on all the TV games. Stay with the investment. Try one of my packages and in the long term, you will beat the man.

DU: I see you cover seven different sports, where do you find the time?

RA: (Chuckle) That’s where the Rocketman Line comes in. I look at every single game on the board each day. I start handicapping over night and often don’t finish till about lunch time the following day, except for on the weekends of course. I put in many, many hours, I’m an old-school guy, I do most of my work on paper. I update my power ratings each day, that’s where I start and I go from there.

DU: Many handicappers have bad reputations with the public and deservedly so, but you have always stayed above the fray. I understand you are involved with Relay for Life, tell me about your involvement?

RA: I started with Relay for Life about five years ago; it is with the American Cancer Society. We start at 7:00 PM on Friday night and we go till 7:00 AM on Saturday morning. We have different teams to raise money for the Cancer Society at a park here in South Carolina. The money is used for research and to help those who are in need.

My team is from my church and the idea is to have one person from your team on the track the entire 12 hours doing a lap. Last year our county raised $157,000.00. I’m a sponsor and try to help out as much as I can. The first lap of event is done by cancer survivors, it’s called the Survivor lap and they let go of doves. It’s really a nice cause to be a part of.

DU: I can tell by your voice, you are passionate about it as well.

RA: A couple of years ago, my wife’s first cousin’s child, contracted a very rare disease, she was two or three when she was diagnosed. She had to go to St. Jude’s in Memphis, TN and have operation to have part of both of her kidney’s taken out. She is in remission and doing well. It is a joy to see her leading the pace lap.

DU: Wow that is great and very inspiring. It’s nice to tell people about the human side of handicappers. Too often the story is all the bad news.

RA: Very true.

DU: In summation, what piece of advice would you have the sports bettor looking to improve?

RA: Definitely work on money management. I’ve been on fire, yet I have some members who say, “Hey man, I need some help! I’ve lost” even though I killed it with the plays they bought. They start adding plays of their own or other people. Stay with a money management system; don’t play games just to play them. A lot of people start doing what is called recreational betting, that’s where they get into trouble. Like I said, stop gambling and start investing. You don’t have to play every day.

DU: Great advice Rocky and continued success to you for the rest of the year.

RA: Thanks Doug, it’s been a pleasure.

Big Game, not much action elsewhere

As you can imagine, no great systems, angles or trends going today with so few games and baseball getting started. I expect we will be back to normal on Tuesday.

I think tonight’s title game is really on the nose. About 55 percent of the members of the Left Coast Connection are playing Michigan State. Personally, I’m passing on the side and total. I think the numbers are correct so why throw away good money on a guess. I’m in a different pool and need Michigan State and Under so that will be good enough for me.

I’m always amazed by the number of handicappers who charge out of the gate with baseball, having three to five plays. I understand they want to look knowledgeable and may have insights that I don’t. However, I usually have two-four plays the first eight or nine games, because in truth, nobody really knows how things will begin. It’s is similar to betting 10 NFL games in week one, lots of things can happen. Granted, it is their job to sell picks and if they don’t their is no cash coming in.

It has served me wisely to be extremely selective until you have a feel about baseball. Read boxscores, see how teams are playing, this has helped me be 346-271, +41.66 units of profit over the last two years.

This year I’m more prepared than ever to do well, but that does not guarantee me or anyone else anything. If you would like my MLB plays, signup to the right and my NBA plays have been rock solid all year.

Enjoy the game and Good Luck.

Every last thing you need to know about the Super Bowl 43

I had a very clear understanding of who I thought would win and cover the Super Bowl, what total to take and what props to play. After doing research for this article, I’m more confused about what to do next than Megan from “The Bachelor”.

I started by going to Sportsbook.com to get a feel what the wagering public was thinking and 52-55 percent of the quote-unquote “squares” are on Arizona to cover the spread. Based on recent history, this made sense to me taking the points, especially if the line holds at Pittsburgh -7. Over 60 percent of these same people that place bets at this book like the total to Over, this also made sense to me since the logical conclusion would be the Cardinals and Over and the Steelers and Under.

The money line action has steadily grown towards the Cardinals all week, up to 89 percent of all bets placed was on Arizona. From a value standpoint, this has merit and talking to Doug from 3Daily Winners, he believes many of the same lemmings (my term not his) that cashed on the Giants last year have returned believing the same thing could happen again.

I read where last year was supposed to be the big bonanza, with an estimated 100 million bet on the SB 42. It ended up being a little too optimistic for the perfect storm to occur with the perfect Pats and confident dog Giants, settling at 92M plus. Because of these recessionary times and the less than glamorous Cardinals in the game, this year’s number has been downsized to no more than 85 million and probably less.

Another factor of the decrease of the number is the rebirth of the local guy taking bets. Many bookies went out of business or were cut so severely because of the offshore internet sites that opened up. Once the government snuck in the bill about offshore betting being illegal, this opened up a whole new ball game for these fellas.

Most of the smart ones embraced technology and now have websites set up just like the offshore books and run very much the same way. The beauty for them now is instead of fielding phone calls or sending emails what the current lines are, they just have their “customers” login and view the lines themselves. This has also aided them in their ability to do prop bets for the Super Bowl and take in even more money, as long as they can cover the losses. These guys work less and are making more money then they ever did before. It’s sure is good the government ended up helping those in the United States keep the money here instead of letting in go abroad. (Wink)

To get a feel for what handicappers are thinking about the Big Game, I went to The Spread.com where they always have people posting Free and paid picks. Here the views of who will cover are different from the wagering public. At last count over 60 percent of the cappers were on Pittsburgh, including most of the big names in the business. Having once been in the business myself, I was surprised to see touts giving out a favorite, especially with a touchdown line. They were dead even on the total.

Next I went to every major sports website and read every article they had posted. ESPN.com tends to be more serious, while Fox Sports.com blends in more goofy stories, searching too hard it seems to have that “different angle”. The rest off the sites were somewhere in between. For all the stories on Al Gore’s information highway (You didn’t know he invented the internet and found global warming also?), there was very little I already didn’t know.

I was shocked and dumbfounded to see Brenda Warner (Kurt’s wife), remembering her when she had the spiked-hair which made her look, you know, like a switch-hitter. Now she has that blonde hair and looks sort of hot (especially compared to before). Speaking of hot, what about Big Ben’s either current or possibly former girlfriend? Google her up.

My search for newsworthy trends, angles or what I thought was different info yielded the following.

*Kurt Warner could become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.

*No Super Bowl team had ever been beaten by more than 21 points twice during the regular season, Arizona was defeated on four occasions in this manner.

*The team with the most sacks has won 12 of last 13 Super Bowls and is 8-3-2 ATS.

*Losing Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points are astonishing 0-31 and 3-28 ATS.

*Teams in their first Super Bowl against a team with previous experience (of any kind) are 4-12 and 5-11 ATS.

*The outright winner of the Super Bowl is 34-8 ATS.

*Teams off consecutive upsets are 4-2-1 ATS in the Big Game.

*Pittsburgh is attempting to be the first team to ever have six Super Bowl trophies.
*Teams that win the turnover battle are 30-3 and 27-6 ATS.

*For total players consider the referee. Over the last three years, Terry McCauley’s games have averaged 39.3 points per game, the lowest among all NFL referees.

*Kurt Warner has gone seven years between Super Bowl games, Ben Roethlisberger is try to join Tom Brady as the only quarterback with two rings by age 26.

*Arizona allowed 426 points during the regular season; the previous worst for a Super Bowl team was 360.

*Pittsburgh is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS if they out-rushed their opponent this year and Arizona is 9-0 SU & ATS if they did so.

Made calls down to Tampa area and it resembles Steel City South. As many as 30 or more bars have been designated as Pittsburgh bars. The number for Arizona, well that would be about as many as people who saw there stock portfolio grow in 2008, none.

When I spoke to Doug (who lives in Phoenix area) he told me something I found humorous. The day after the Arizona beat Philadelphia, the different news stations in Phoenix were reporting Cardinals fans were actually going to travel to Tampa even if they didn’t have tickets. Obviously the news people there are dolts and what sounds like a few hundred at most fans from the Grand Canyon State will be outnumbered 30-1 by those in black and gold.

After all this research, my head was spinning and I felt like Paris Hilton at physics convention. (That would be stupid) Decided to go back to my original belief that Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule in the league all season, had few letdowns and for my money was the best team in football since Week 7. I just can’t shake the thought of all those horrific Cardinals losses and maybe it’s all in the past, but like their forever cheap owner Bill Bidwell (Oh do I have stories about him and his father) I find it impossible to believe they will play well enough to win.

Put me down for Steelers 31-20 and I hope I’m right.

These were the thoughts of one Red Wydley.

Taking Home the Money College Basketball Totals

For many sports bettors, college basketball totals take on Forrest Gump-ish quality, as they are like a box of chocolates, but after studying all the sides most days, it’s hard to choose which games to play. Many sports bettors are more comfortable staying within the realm of what they know, which seldom includes college basketball totals.

Oddsmakers also are not as comfortable putting out totals on these games, as you will notice they usually arrive mid-morning on the day of the games, after releasing the side action in the late afternoon the day before. There is a good reason for this; “sharps” know the best value in college basketball wagering is on totals, because that is where the most potential errors can occur, especially on deep, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday cards. Those setting the numbers want to limit their exposure to these players, reducing the time they can cherry pick miscues, thus protecting themselves as best they.

How can somebody be successful betting college totals, you have to be ready to stay away from the glimmer of the big conferences, focus your attention on the smaller leagues, where these types of teams are more likely to pop up and oddsmakers pay lesser attention to, since they are wagered on accordingly. Here is a look at some of the very best teams every college basketball bettor should be looking at. (The focus will be on teams that have played more than half the games with a posted total)

For those who prefer to play Over the total, Ohio U (8-6, 6-5 ATS) is about as good as you could want with 7-2-1 mark. It’s a fairly remarkable team without much size or a bench, playing primarily in a league not known for scoring, yet is climbing over the total. Most of their winning numbers have come out of MAC play, thus it is worth watching to notice if the Bobcats can keep on delivering in conference action.

The Manhattan Jaspers (9-7, 5-5 ATS) out of the MAAC are 7-2 OVER, after winning just 12 games last season. It appears oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, since Manhattan has been the talk of the conference as an immensely improved team. What impresses people is how hard they play and even in defeat, they keep playing the whole 40 minutes, giving total players a chance. Off a loss the Jaspers are 4-1 Over.

LaSalle (8-6, 4-4-1 ATS) is part of the “Big 5” universities in Philadelphia area and has been a moneymaker for those watching totals with 7-2 mark, favoring the higher numbers. The Explorers defense is run of the mill, allowing 69.2 points per game on 42.4 percent. Offensively they do a good job, in scoring 72.5 points per game and averaging better than 10 offensive rebounds a contest, which helps push them Over the total. Like Manhattan, LaSalle has been a solid play off a loss at 4-0 Over, scoring 77 PPG.

One team that is no stranger to total players is Long Beach State. The 49ers (9-7, 10-6 ATS) have changed coaches from their 90+ point days, yet are still leaping over numbers 75 percent of the time with a 9-3 Over mark. L.B. State still moves the ball up and down the floor in averaging 72. 4 points an outing, but where they really are a good play is the utter of lack defense they don’t play, particularly on the road where they give up 75.8 PPG. When the 49ers travel to a team that has even a semblance of offense, the Over has to be the play.

On the other end of the spectrum is the dark side, where supposedly only those in the know play totals on the Under. Handicappers and linemakers have been selling us for years about “squares” only being on the Over and while some validity still holds true to that belief, the marketplace is far more knowledgeable, with greater access to information, making that point less trustworthy then in the past.

Any basketball bettor knows Utah State (15-1, 7-4 ATS) is a perennial player in the WAC title chase and makes frequent visits to the Top 25. The Aggies play stingy defense (59.6 PPG) and take their time on offense under coach Stew Morrill, always looking for a high percentage shot. Utah State’s effective controlled style, bothers opposing teams and the Aggies at 9-2 UNDER is not a shocker for interested bettors.

San Diego is know for its beautiful year round climate, seldom too hot or too cold and this basketball season is known for having two schools that favor one side of the totals action. San Diego State returned five starters and the results have been even better than expected with 12-3 mark (8-4 ATS). This veteran Aztec club does not have a player taller than 6’8, nonetheless, they can bang in the paint with taller opponents and play solid help-position defense that forces teams to connect from the perimeter. Opposing squads are only at 40.9 percent against coach Steve Fisher’s team, scoring 55.7 PPG. The Aztecs are a cash-machine 8-2 UNDER.

Not far away is the San Diego University campus and the Toreros are right in the same area as their counterparts at 11-3 UNDER. San Diego (10-7, 8-6 ATS) was believed to be a contender in the West Coast Conference, but they lost three key components in all-conference guard Brandon Johnson (for the season), plus Trumaine Johnson and De'Jon Jackson have only recently returned. The offense really suffered without this trio, with San Diego starting 4-6. With the latter Johnson back with Jackson, all-WCC performer Gyno Pomare has stepped up his scoring and the Toreros offense is a threat again. Their defense still playing well, suggesting the Under’s should keep on coming.

Following and playing totals does take time and effort, yet knowing where to start with the correct teams can be profitable right from the outset.

NBA December Betting Knowledge

I don’t know how many NBA sports bettors ever think about the differences in the time of the season and what influence, if any, it might have on which team will cover a point spread or what games in what situations might go Over or Under the lined total? Is this a valid angle to look at?

Living in Las Vegas and having gambled in all capacities for more years than I care to remember (those cocktail waitresses coming around all the time playing you with free drinks might have something to do with my memory insufficiencies), I’ve seen all types of beliefs, superstitions, methodologies, mantras, etc. of people who sit in the sports book, in front of slots and video poker machines, and at the card and dice tables.

Standing at the rail of the craps table, or more likely leaning on it, I’ve watched people increase their wager tenfold because somebody has thrown three naturals in a row, 7 or 11, on the come out roll. Their logic is he’s hot and he will roll another 7 or 11 winner giving them enough money to pay the cover charge to the casino’s super nightclub with a party being hosted by Corey Feldman. They don’t realize, or forget (those cocktail waitresses fault again?) that every roll of the dice is an independent event with prior results having no effect on the upcoming roll.


I think the phrase “I’m due”, “he’s due,”, “they’re due”, or for heaven’s sake, “somebody is due”! is one of the most frequently-uttered axioms in gambling. “I’m down $400 in blackjack, I’m due to win”. Well, maybe if you would learn to double-down when you have a total of ten and the dealer has a four showing, you wouldn’t be losing so badly. It is also one of the most fruitless expressions there is not just in gambling, but in life. I went through six years of college thinking I was due for an “A” in a class, any class. It finally happened in Bowling 101. I was so ecstatic until I found out that anybody who showed up for every class got a perfect grade. I guess I was somewhat ignorant thinking my 119 average on the lanes would achieve such a high grade.


It is not just a superstition or a wild belief that certain times of the season have certain tendencies. Just like at the beginning of a new baseball season, the first 30 days has some strong trends as many teams are getting used to working with new teammates on both offense and defense. There are always a few new coaches or changes in systems that teams have to become fluid with. December has its own certain trends that occur that not many people are aware of. These aren’t all 60%+ winning systems. They are more like tendencies to give you an edge, which in betting the NBA, it is very important to have any edge you can get.


Getting an edge is easy for December games. Since the beginning of the 2004 season during the month of December, away dogs have cashed a ticket 54.1% of the time. Except for the last couple of weeks of the season in April, December is the only month that has greater than a 50.5% winning rate for road dogs. That is as basic as you can get. Does this mean you should blindly bet on away dogs in December? In my opinion it doesn’t, but it does make me look at road dogs first before considering a home favorite. It’s nice to start capping a game with a 4.1% edge.


A situation that has averaged about nine occurrences a season but is worth looking for due to such a high winning percentage is: Since the 2002 season, a team off of a road win of 20 points or more has a 31-15 ATS record in December, 67.4%. There is only one other month with even a winning record in this situation, 28-22 in the month of March. The linesmaker doesn’t catch up with shading the line enough this early in the season. By January he does with the result of a 16-26 ATS record for the team off the big road victory.


How about following an easy trend for December that gives you two-for-one results: winners in both the side and the total? This out of sight trend only entails playing on teams that have won two road games in a row and also playing Over the lined total in that game. In December over the past three years, you would have cashed 15 out of twenty tickets on the winning side, one push, and 17 out of 21 times on the winning total. You don’t have to be a maverick of a handicapper to make money betting that trend.



A general rule many handicappers follow is to play on teams that have lost a couple of games in a row. They believe the line will be adjusted enough so the losing team is getting some value. This isn’t the case in December games. Teams that have lost two straight games only have a losing ATS record in that third game during one month of the season. And naturally that month is December. Just as in one of our earlier examples, the line has not adjusted accordingly this early in the season.


As in most sports, revenge can be a great tool to look for when handicapping games. First, in this example, we have to exclude April where you have about two weeks left of the regular season and a lot of funny stuff can happen such as teams tanking games to achieve a good draft spot, teams with playoff spots cinched that are resting regulars, and teams looking at young players to determine their future with the squad.


So, excluding April, if you just blindly played on a team seeking revenge from a same-season defeat, you would make money in every month over the past three years except what month? Move to the head of the class (or the front of the betting line) if you said December! Playing on same-season revenge-seeking teams in November, January, February, or March, means you would have a winning record of 55.5%. If you have played the NBA before, you will know that is not a bad record to hang your hat on. Maybe same-season revenge-seeking teams in December get into the holiday spirit as they only cover the point spread 45.5% of the time.


Pay attention to these December trends to help make you money. Right now, I am in the middle of a tough bowling match, but not to worry. I’m due to pick this 7-10 split up.


Jim Kruger is a noted NBA handicapper and owner of Vegas Sports Authority.