MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Rays

With the summer slipping into August this weekend, the baseball pennant races start to take shape with more meaningful games over the next two months. What better way to start building the momentum than with the two best teams in baseball. The first place New York Yankees (65-36, +7.8 units) head south to visit Tampa Bay (63-38, +6.5), who trails by two games in the loss column.

The atmosphere should be electric with all three games sold out and for New York; they have other side bar stories. This is the Yankees first team visit since the passing of George Steinbrenner who resided in Tampa. Alex Rodriguez will continue his elusive quest for home run No. 600. When asked if he feels pressure after failing to connect for a long ball in seven straight games, A-Rod answered this way. “We’re winning, so this is fun,” Rodriguez said. “I’m focusing on something more important: a pennant race.”

The Rays picked the right time to get hot having won six in a row and a continuation of such play would jettison them into first place by the end of the weekend. “I’m sure there’s going to be a vibe,” Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. “They’re playing well. We’re playing well. It’s going to be interesting. I know we’re going to be excited to play.”

The pitching matchup has two young hurlers. Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), after a brilliant start has had rocky moments of late, being tagged for five runs or more in three of previous five starts. Location has been Hughes downfall and the Yankees are only 14-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. Online sports betting outlets have New York as -107 ML wager, as the Yankees seem to thrive against top notch competition with a 12-3 record in road games when playing against teams with a 62% or higher win percentage in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay is 100-48 in home games against right-handed starters the past three seasons and sends Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32) up the hill. Davis has gotten in a nice groove with three consecutive victories and 2.11 ERA. “Every series is important, but this is a big series for us to go out and win some games against them to stay up there with them,” Davis told the Rays’ official website. “If we can do that, then we’ll be in a good situation.” The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts against New York this year and A-Rod has two jacks off of him.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The Rays are hoping outfielders B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are close to 100 percent after missing time this week with sprained ankle and lower back stiffness respectively, getting ready for New York. The second game of the series will also feature Matt “no-hitter” Garza (11-5. 4.08), who faced the minimum 27 batters (one walk) his last time out. Garza was able to work effectively up in the strike zone against depleted Detroit lineup. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Garza’s starts at Tropicana Field, where they have won 10 of 11 coming into the series.

The Bronx Bombers arrive in St. Pete’s having won eight of 11 and have split eight meetings with the Rays. Manager Joe Girardi’s club began the series 31-20 in the visiting gray uniforms, thanks to being victorious in 16 of last 21 contests. Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54) started the season on shaky ground, but has since stabilized with 8-3 mark and 3.16 ERA. The Yanks are 36-16 in last 52 and have won four of last five Vazquez road starts. The Yankees right-hander is 5-5 (4.71) in last 10 starting assignments against Tampa Bay, with Carl Crawford batting .368 against him since 2006. Garza is 1-3 (3.26) vs New York and A-Rod (.467) and Nick Swisher (.500) have been the most troublesome batters he faces from that lineup.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale from the Trop has C.C. Sabathia (13-4, 3.15) on a major roll. The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in last 10 outings and is 14-4 in August of late. He’s been tough all year on right-hand hitters, as they are batting only .234 against him. New York plays great all the time including during the day, with 25-12 record as they prepare for this TBS 1:30 Eastern tilt.

Tampa Bay will start James Shields (9-9, 4.79) who also possess quality August numbers with a 12-6 record. Shields has to start missing more bats, with opponents hitting .281 against him (.266 lifetime) and he is on career path for home runs allowed, already being taken deep 22 times. The Rays are equally effective in day games with 20-10 record and are 11-9 to commence the weekend as underdogs.

Game 3 Edge: New York

New York has won 26 of last 44 conflicts between these teams and is 12-9 at the Trop the past three years. Both teams are at the top of their games, both respecting, but do not fearing the other, which makes for fascinating series.

I’ve hit five straight weekend series wagers and though I’d like to see Tampa Bay win, I’m betting New York and here is why. Sometime next season I’ll write an article about this, but the Rays have double digit hits just once in past seven tries, which has me believing they are living off of great pitching. New York can match Tampa Bay in this area and shutdown their attack. Coincidently, the Yankees have nine or more base knocks in seven of previous nine games, suggesting they will score more runs and takes the series.

Sportsbooks series odds: New York -120, Tampa Bay -110

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

Run Line or Money Line – Yankees case study

The New York Yankees name and brand is known everywhere. Go any place in the world either walking or driving and you are bound to see a Yankees hat or t-shirt. When it comes to betting, the same is true, everyone knows the Bronx Bombers and their storied history and whether you love them or loathe them, everybody has an opinion on the Yankees and those setting the numbers on them are well aware of this fact.

Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to bet against New York, as for well over a decade they have been the best team in baseball year in year out.

The Yankees success has led to frequently inflated money lines by oddsmakers, as they know the wagering public may root for an underdog from time to time, but when it comes down to placing money on wagers, favorites will get the call the vast majority of the time.

With New York having the best talent money can buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in this realm means at least two other victories are required to break even or show a profit.

It is often suggested by handicappers or others in wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are predicting New York wins by two or more runs and if they don’t, your risk is basically cut in half.

The question becomes is this the right strategy?

Broke down last year’s championship regular season on New York and focused first on them being a -155 or higher money line favorite. Of their 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role 82 times or just over half their contests played, which is rather hefty baggage.

For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager Joe Girardi’s club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage when a -155 or higher betting pick.
As you might imagine, a number of the 24 defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter and teammates showed a meager ML profit of +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as decided favorites.

Instead of picking and choosing run lines, let’s convert all 82 contests as good to oversized chalk into run lines.

The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, wagering on the run line.

However, many of our regular wins came with increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W’s that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of +30.55 units.

Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL.

Our 58-24 ML record added up this way.

58 units – 50.2 units = +7.8 units

But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and do the math.

New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to go along with the other 22 wins that added up +22 more units.

Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. Nonetheless look at the difference.

30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8
52.55 - 36.8 = +15.7 units

The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly double’s the amount made of betting the Yankees on the money line in same exact situations. What looks more enticing to you?

Another story frequently spoken in sports betting circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller favorites because of the “value” you are getting on them as compared to higher prices. While this might be true to a point, it’s certainly not a fact.

Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 favorites 56 times, just over a third of the schedule, thus making the argument of “rare” opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, Steinbrenner’s crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of profit.

However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of -130 to -150 they would have came away with +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than playing New York as “valued” favorite 56 times.

The Yankees are the most exaggerated team when it comes to paying the price, nevertheless public teams like Boston, Philadelphia, the Cubs or the Dodgers when they are playing well could well show more profits betting them daily on the run line vs. the money line as good-sized favorites.

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World Series Game 6 Questions and Answers

Tonight either the New York Yankees win a 27th World Series or are pushed to a deciding Game 7. The beauty of a series is it evolves and takes on a life of its own, which is particularly true in baseball since every game involves two new starting pitchers that alter the dynamics from game to game. For the baseball bettor that means breaking the contest down into components in order to pick the right side or total. Here are Game 6’s most pressing questions.

Can Andy Pettitte pitch effectively on three days’ rest?

This is the leading mystery coming into this confrontation and even Pettitte admits he has no idea how his arm will react. When asked what it’s like to throw on short rest, Pettitte responded, “Man, I don't even remember the last time I went on three days' rest,"

In fact, it was September 30, 2006, when still a member of the Houston Astros. The left-hander is not an excitable type and will likely focus his attention on breaking pitches and off-speed stuff if the fastball isn’t up to typical standards. Pettitte is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 career starts on three days' rest. With more adrenaline pumping in the playoffs, he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on short rest. Sportsbook.com has New York as -200 money line favorites. With Pettitte on the mound, his record is 36-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Manager Joe Girardi better hope this works tonight, otherwise he will be facing the critics before tomorrow’s Game 7 with Burnett and Pettitte both failing in using this pitching strategy.

What’s that cool breeze?

Every year different player’s end up having struggles in the playoffs or World Series and right now two guys are in the heart of each team’s lineup. Mark Teixeira is batting below .200 in the Fall Classic and has been fanned 16 times since postseason action commenced. His body language suggests he’s pressing, swinging harder after each strike. New York could use his normally potent bat to wrap up this series, since he contributed to Yankees 60-23 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Ryan Howard’s timing couldn’t be more off. His swing mechanics are a mess and he’s tied the World Series record for strikeouts with 13, with at least one more game to go. What makes hitting so intriguing is Howard could come up in the first inning and hit a soft liner the other way, just over Derek Jeter’s head and suddenly start sending rockets all around Yankee Stadium. Given Philadelphia is such a large underdog; his big bat could take the Phillies to 12-3 in road games after three or more consecutive home games this season.

How does manager Charley Manuel use Pedro Martinez?

Give Martinez credit, in two playoff starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings, striking out 11 and walking just two. Though the radar gun seldom sees 90 anymore, Pedro still struts around the mound like a peacock, acting like he owns the place. Look for Yankees hitters to be more patient this time and not be as inclined to swing at off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. It would be in Manuel’s best interest to start getting a pitcher ready once Martinez goes thru the batting order once, since he doesn’t have enough heat to keep New York batters honest and not sitting on off-speed tosses.

How cool is it right now to be Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

For both these hitters, they are as ESPN’s Stewart Scott would say, “cool as the other side of the pillow”. They are working pitchers until they make the slightest mistake and rocketing shots like they are seeing batting practice speed beach balls. Each is capable of winning a game single-handily with the way they are swinging. Will Utley raise the Phillies playoff record to 21-8 the last two years and force a Game 7 or does A-Rod drop an “A-Bomb” (Yankees radio announcer John Sterling call) and New York is champion yet again and finishes the year 39-11 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

What was learned from Game 5 that could determine winner for tonight?

The most important factor for the sports bettor is the OVER could well hit a fourth straight game. The first two contests of the World Series saw rested starting pitchers going deep in games, for a pair of Under’s. Since then, the two most power-laden team in the big leagues have hit homers in smallish parks against relief pitchers who have resembled an interleague matchup of the Orioles and Nationals.

If you take Mariano Rivera out of the equation, if either team trails buy almost any margin, they have to feel they can comeback against two bullpens short on getting outs quickly.

Wednesday Update with New Feature

Pleased to announce 2-1 day, especially with two NHL Winners. We have an another NHL play, this time a Prefect Trend. The Best System is for the NFL this Sunday involving totals at 83.9 percent. Good Luck

NEW Feature: Take our Poll at the bottom of the page.

What I learned today- Alex Rodriguez had three hits, a home run, two RBIs, three runs scored, a stolen base and a walk in the Yankees victory over the Angels on Tuesday night. Since 1920, the first year that RBIs were officially recorded in the major leagues, only one other player reached all six of those statistical levels in one postseason game: the Phillies' Lenny Dykstra in Game Four of the 1993 World Series vs. Toronto. Rodriguez has five home runs and 11 RBIs in the 2009 postseason. The only other player to hit at least five home runs and drive in 10-or-more runs in his first seven games of one postseason was Carlos Beltran (six HR and 12 RBIs) for Houston in 2004. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like the Bengals when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, being an average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG), against a team with an average defense (295 to 335 YPG), after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Mark this totals system down as 26-5, 83.9 percent since 1983. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Boston Bruins are 12-0 when playing against a bad team (win percentage 25 to 40 percent) in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Take the Phillies to wrap up series with the Dodgers. Though Padilla deserves a lot of credit, check the facts. In last eight starts, he's faced five opponents that could not hit (AZ-2, SF-2, Wash.) and caught Colorado the day after clinching pennant in meaningless game on the last day of the season. Padilla pitched well against Cardinals who were in hitting slump and was impressive against Philly in Game 2. Given his usual track record and Phils urgency before home crowd, take the Phillies.

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The Platinum Sheet has a capper at 24-9-1 ATS in college football Best Bets. (Not me)

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Yankees and Angels ALCS Preview

While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. Each team has a number of offensive strengths, yet both have weaknesses the other team can exploit.

New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.

Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia’s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be “big time” on the various teams he’s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.

A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on “stuff”, yet it always doesn’t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett’s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.

This is a different Angels’ team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The “hack at everything” team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin’ the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.

It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn’t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.

When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O’Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it’s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3’s on most teams. That’s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI’s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he’s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won’t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.

Offensive – American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th


Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don’t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150

Cooley's Comtemplations -103 Damnations

One big name leaked into our laps so may we please have the remaining 103?

On Monday afternoon, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez confessed to using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) for three seasons during his illustrious baseball career.

This is about as big of news as there has been since steroids, HGH and PEDs entered the diamond of the public eye. Baseball fans across the nation have been waiting for a confession like this, and the renaissance of cleaner games on the sandlot is eagerly anticipated by all.

But rest assured, there are many more dark days to come before the Steroid Era is gone.

This is a period in baseball that will never be forgotten. It will be talked about by our children, our children's children and their children's children. The game will eventually rid itself of this disease with its deep and rich history, and it looks like now could be the beginning of the cleansing process.

But more players must follow the lead Alex Rodriguez provided.

Rodriguez has been a Mariner, a Ranger and a Yankee, but on Monday he was a sacrificial lamb. He tossed aside his pride and said, "I am pretty tired of being stupid and selfish and the truth needed to be told a long time ago, and I'm glad it's coming out today. I was young, I was stupid, I was naive. I am very sorry and deeply regretful."

Rodriguez seemed to be sincerely remorseful for taking illegal PEDs from 2001 to 2003 while playing for Texas. As he gave his testimony to Peter Gammons sitting in a chair with a blue sweater and white collar, he appeared to be relieved, scared, contemplative and emotional all at the same time. He even began to choke-up when speaking about his fans "that will never look at (him) the same."

Perhaps his white collar in the interview had an unknowing symbolic significance. Maybe it proves that even celebrities are normal people, just like the white collar worker who is prone to human error.

Rodriguez coming clean in front of the nation is commendable, but he should have done it sooner. When Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte admitted their transgressions a new found respect from fans, coaches, players and the media surfaced.

Over time, this will most likely happen with Rodriguez as well. But now while the iron is hot, the other 103 players should raise their hands and also confess to what they did.

In 2003, Major League Baseball gave an unannounced drug test to a group of active players to see if mandatory, random testings were needed in the sport. After results were gathered and it was determined baseball had a steroid problem, MLB was going to destroy the 104 positive samples, but the federal government issued a subpoena and the list was taken by investigators.

This testing was a secret screening where the results were supposed to be kept confidential and no punishments for positive results were to be handed out. The players' samples were even locked away in one location while the list was stored in another.

One can't help but image what sort of encasement the list and samples were kept in and what kind of credentials a person needed to access them? Did the key holder have to go through a series of fingerprint and retina scans to get to the list?

It kind of sounds like Area 51 with the extra terrestrials and the government hiding everything.

The same place one might find the remaining 103 culprits who cheated the game, the fans and their teams.

Why is it fair for one player to be thrown to the wolves but not the others? Why was it that only Rodriguez's name was divulged from this confidential investigation? Is it so terrible to ask for others to come forward?

Honesty has always been and will always be the best policy.

Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada appear in court on Wednesday for lying to Congressional investigators when he told them he had not taken PEDs during his baseball career.

It looks as if Tejada is one of the lingering 103. Perhaps baseball fans will be able to cross a second name off the infamous list.

Beyond the shadows where the cowardly will remain silent is a tiny golf clap of applause for what Alex Rodriguez accomplished on Monday. The praise can be heard over the continuous song of sarcastic pity played by the critics who hold the world's smallest violin.

"Regardless of what we want to mask and say and justify there is absolutely no excuse for what I did," stated Rodriguez. "If I was a fan, I would be very pissed off."

We are very pissed off. But we are also human and have the ability to forgive, but that begins with more players admitting guilt.

Rodriguez got the monkey off his back, now we need to get the elephant out of the room.


Scott Cooley is Freelance Writer who shares his wisdom here.