Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

Big East Tourney Thoughts -First Round

It had to happen and it was the right thing to do, but the amount of people waiting for the start of the Big East Tournament that now includes all 16 teams for the first time, has all the excitement surrounding it as the MEAC Conference tournament, which also starts today. The first day is so lightly regarded, even the Big East Network isn’t going to telecast it, and instead it is available online at BigEast.tv, which would draw this response from Homer Simpson. “Woowhoo”.

At least St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers and DePaul are not shunned to some sort of basketball purgatory for having terrible season and will have a chance to compete, should they choose to do so. Three teams actually have something to play for, though it’s a reach, as Georgetown, Cincinnati and Notre Dame have the slimmest of chances to still be invited to the Big Dance. To even be considered part of that conversation, that would require a visit to the semi-finals, at least.

Cincinnati will face DePaul at high noon Eastern and it is hard to believe the Blue Demons will put up much of a fight after going zero for the Big East this season in 18 tries (6-12 ATS). DePaul has played with the enthusiasm of person finding out they are being laid off, but have to work two more weeks in order to get a two month severance package. On the year, DePaul is 8-18 ATS and Bookmaker.com has them as a rock solid eight-point underdog. The Bearcats are not exactly smokin’ coming in, with three consecutive losses and in need of OnStar to find the basket, as they have not converted over 38 percent from the field in last trio of tilts and are 0-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite over the last two seasons.

Immediately following, the next contest would have greater appeal if they ran ESPN Classic between Georgetown and St. John’s. This is actually the hot matchup of the day, with the Hoyas 3-3 in last six and the Storm 3-2 to close the year and 5-2 ATS in final seven tries. As you probably know, the fortunes of St. John’s altered when they caved in to political correctness and changed the school’s nickname away from Redmen. As a semi-educated adult, I know that has nothing to do with it, but can’t St. John’s start attracting a few kids from the city to at least be .500 and not have a sorry 6-13 ATS record against teams with winning records. Georgetown lost their confidence early in the Big East campaign and never regained it, finishing 7-11 and never met Wall Street-type expectations either with 4-14 ATS record in conference. The Hoyas and DePaul totaled 88 points in last game and G-Town is 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less this season. Georgetown favored by six, smells like an upset.

In the evening, Notre Dame will bring its defenseless team into Madison Square Garden to take on Rutgers, a team that has given them trouble, at least when giving points. The Irish had a season reminiscent of the football team, high expectations, few results. Notre Dame did mange to defeat the teams they were supposed late in the season, including routing St. John’s by 19 as 11.5-point favorites, but they are just 1-7 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. Rutgers won two Big East games, including their last one over South Florida in a defensive classic (?) 45-42. The Scarlet Knights have shone to be pesky for Notre Dame with three covers in three losses the last three years and are receiving 11-points.

Oh, excuse me, I just yawned thinking about South Florida and Seton Hall. The Pirates looked like they might have some life when they won five games in a row in Big East action, however those wins all came against teams playing today and they finished 2-5, with one of the wins coming against tonight’s opponent. If you want to trace South Florida problems, it’s easier than finding fake Cartier watches in New York City. The Bulls shoot 39.8 percent from the field, make 29.6 percent from beyond the arc and convert 60.2 percent from the charity stripe. It’s no wonder USF is 5-14 ATS off a road loss. Seton Hall is a 5.5-point favorite and is 10-2 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.

Opening day plays- Cincy, St. John’s, Rutgers and Seton Hall. Back here tomorrow for second round from MSG.