Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional

Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are manageable distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, OH. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two.

Unusual Pairing

To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.

Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.

Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.

Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.

The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122 at DiamondSportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.

Buckeyes look to avoid being Orange Crush

Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16-2 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17-1 ATS).

The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.

Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.

Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 3:50 PM MST

I got an email from a guy who is a pretty sharp bettor who told me to play Michigan on the money line. I didn’t see it until after the game had started, I can only hope he also had the Wolverines against the spread.

An absolutely superb performance by Michigan in which they should have won the game, but their coach John Beilein had his team push hard for 39 minutes and 57.8 seconds and just like a football coach, goes into prevent defense. There is really no defending their defense in those few precious seconds. Manny Harris and his teammates deserved better, but their coach didn’t do his job at crunch time.

You have to give props to Evan Turner, it was a remarkable shot and what ESPN’s Steve Lavin said, I thought as it was happening, great form by Turner to give him and his team a chance.

How do you figure Illinois? For 35 minutes they looked like they should have tied for the Big Ten title, great precision on offense and stifling defense. Wisconsin ended shooting 28.6 percent for the game and was outrebounded by five and certainly did not look like Bo Ryan coached team as eight point favorites.

The top plays from the handicappers today look like this today. St. Louis (L) Florida State, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Xavier.

College teams make case for Big Dance

This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt, UTEP and Ohio State are looking for brownie points in enhance position for NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi. Here is a look at what the three OTHER teams have to do tonight in the final week of college basketball.

Leave the alligator alone

Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.

“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”

Florida is a three-point home favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

Watch out for Thundering Herd

For the last several years, a good trivia question pertaining to college basketball would have been, “In 30 seconds, name the other teams in Conference USA besides Memphis?” With John Calipari taking his recruiting skills and likely probation to Kentucky, like a field filled with small holes, C-USA teams are like prairie dogs popping their heads above ground level and scurrying about. One such team is UTEP (22-5, 11-12 ATS), who is seeking outright title this evening in the state West Virginia and are set to be a treacherous foe for a higher seed in the Big Dance.

Another team trying to get noticed is Marshall (22-7, 14-8 ATS), who is 10-4 and in fourth place in C-USA. Not familiar with the Thundering Herd, than you are missing out. Marshall started the season 15-2, and then lost five in a row, with three of the losses by a total of nine points. This experience made this club tougher and they have reeled off seven wins in a row (4-2 ATS). The Herd holds teams to 38.7 percent shooting, 14th in the country. Marshall has a swatting machine in 6’11 Hassan Whiteside. The freshman leads the country in blocked shots at almost unimaginable 5.5 per game and his 159 rejection notices are 16th all-time in the NCAA with two games to go. For good measure, Whiteside also averages 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. Marshall is 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

This should be a tremendous matchup, as the Miners also play great defense (38.9 percent shooting allowed) and shoot the ball well (47.8) and create defensive pressure and are 15-6 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. Marshall is a slim one point favorite, with total having risen to 147.5 and the Herd is 8-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

What kind of fight does Illini have?

Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of last four contests.

The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.