Load it up for Monday

An extremely rare couple of losing days has us changing things up a bit, as does a light schedule. We have a run line system going today in a makeup game. The Top Trend is a Totals play and the Free Play is based on consensus action for a Monday. Good Luck.

What I saw yesterday and today – If you don’t believe pressure affects a person, you couldn’t be more wrong if you watched Ricky Barnes the last two days. The halfway leader at the U.S. Open completely changed his swing, going from fluid controlled motion to looking like Arnold Palmer, at current age. Barnes had terrible left side thrust and his hands couldn’t get up with his body and was all over the place. Congrats to Lucas Glover who more held his composure.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs (Cubs) against a 1.5 run line, (Money Line =-190 to +165) who are below average NL hitting team with .255 or less batting average, against a good starting pitcher (3.70 or less ERA), starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing, This run line system is 47-15, 75.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The San Francisco Giants are 14-1 UNDER after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Today, 11 LCC members are on Oakland, with not one backing the Giants in Bay Area battle.

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The 2009 U.S. Open Preview

The favorite for this year’s United States Open championship is – surprise, Tiger Woods at +125. El Tigre showed the world he is pretty all the way back with his brilliant come from behind win at the Memorial. After not trusting his surgically repaired knee, Woods showed himself and everyone else he’s back, as his previously erratic driver nailed 49 of 56 fairways at Jack Nicklaus’ tournament.

The Open returns to Bethpage Black, after being highly successful there in 2002. This is a public golf course that people arrive at 4 AM in the morning to secure an open tee time. Make no mistakes, this is a great track and it will play 200 yards longer then it did seven years ago, meaning you have to get off the tee or be incredibility accurate with long irons, hybrids and fairway woods.

Is Tiger a shoo-in to win his 15th major?

Though Woods has had great success on public golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, he’s not a lock, despite playing well. This week’s wild card in hardly a longshot, (second betting choice at +1000) but Phil Mickelson has many hats to wear this week. Lefty was a tremendous crowd favorite here in 2002 and that doesn’t figure to change this year, especially with what has gone on with his wife Amy’s breast cancer diagnosis.

Though many golf pros don’t like Phil’s act, New Yorker’s embraced him immediately, consider it like a Mets and Yankees thing. Woods is like the Yankees, big and powerful and always lets you know who is in charge. Mickelson plays to the crowd and though the second best player in the world, he’ll always be in Tiger’s shadow, making him the classic underdog.

Will Mickelson have the patience to play 72 holes of golf under control, with what is swirling around in his head? The crowd will help, but it seems unlikely.

Padraig Harrington (+4000) won the last two major titles of 2008 and has worked to get better; however his swing adjustments have not panned out to date. Angel Cabrera (+7500) won The Masters in overtime in April and is wholly capable of putting up black numbers or shooting 79 twice to start The Open. Sergio Garcia (+4000) is playing with broken heart, having split up with Greg Norman’s daughter. Just wait till he gets within earshot of a New Yorker with a few Bud Light’s in his belly. As Mr. T once said, “I pity the fool.”

Players with the right game or playing well have to be strongly considered. Jim Furyk (+1500) is always a threat and tends to hang around the leaderboard at most majors with is steady play and is solid head to head wager. Geoff Ogilvy (+2000) and Sean O’Hair (+4000) have the length needed and are stable personality-wise to go through the grind that is the U.S. Open. One player that sticks out is Paul Casey (+2500), three wins (two in Europe) this year and a batch of other top finishes. Steve Stricker has played as consistently well as anyone on tour the last 18 months and the same no-name feel another Madison, WI. golfer by the name of Andy North had, being a two-time Open champion. (Ironically, North’s only two wins on the PGA Tour)

In looking over the head-to-head matchups, found a few that will be on my list of wagers at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Steve Stricker -220 over Adam Scott
Retief Goosen -105 over Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey -130 over Angel Cabrera
Vijay Singh -115 over Ernie Els

The U. S. Open is the sternest test in golf. If you like a player who is capable of being a “birdie machine”, save your money. This major is won by players who have the mental capacity to grind through 18 holes, four consecutive days. The course is set up to ensure par is a good score on every hole. The rough was believed to be a little too long right off the fairway seven years ago and Mike Davis of the USGA, the person who sets up the Open courses, went to graduated levels of rough, too truly punish the player who hits it wide.

The greens will be lightning fast, though relatively flat. Professional players are used to seeing breaks and will sometimes “over-read” these greens, believing there is more break than it looks.
Since Davis has taken over course management, the U.S. Open has become watchful again and the theatre spectacular. Expect more of the same in New York starting Thursday.