Steelers at Broncos MNF Preview

AFC powers Pittsburgh and Denver collide in what figures to be one of the better Monday night games in what has been an entertaining season. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are 5-2 after their bye week, off a tremendous high after getting past previously undefeated Minnesota. Ben Roethlisberger may be putting up some crazy passing stats in 2009, but it was heroic defensive efforts by LaMarr Woodley and Keyaron Fox that did the Vikings in.

The current four-game win streak has witnessed the Steelers (2-5 ATS) get their vaunted running game back on track (126.2 vs. 81 YPG the first three games), although no other back has scored besides Rashard Mendenhall. While head coach Mike Tomlin has received the usual contributions from Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, tight end Heath Miller has gotten off to one of the best years of his five-year career, snatching 40 balls for 353 yards and four touchdowns. They will be looking to extend a run of 29-11 ATS when playing against teams with a 75 percent or higher winning percentage.

Defensively, the extra week off can only help the recently-healed Troy Polamalu, who made six tackles and had two passes defended in last contest, after recording only two stops the previous week versus Cleveland. There has also been no Super Bowl hangover from linebacker James Harrison, who is second on the team in tackles (41) and tops in sacks with eight. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is 1-2 and 0-3 ATS on the road and has now dropped five straight games against the number away from home.

The stellar play of Kyle Orton has made the breakup of Jay Cutler and Denver look like one of those month-long high school flings and not some heavily invested marriage. And while the permanently scowled Cutler deals with throwing to subpar Bears receivers, Orton has his team sitting pretty atop the AFC West with room to spare.

Now, all the preseason predictions of a 5-11 season have faded into the thin Rocky air, as the Broncos (6-1 ATS) have the inside track to locking down a division crown and possibly a first-round bye in the postseason. That’s because Orton has kept it simple in a 6-1 start, and his nine touchdowns and one interception reflect it. Denver is 6-1 ATS against AFC teams playing with rest.

Denver’s winning ways have also kept receiver Brandon Marshall quiet and happy after preseason antics to try to orchestrate trip out of town. Instead, fans have witnessed some game-altering performances in home underdog wins over Dallas and New England, with huge touchdown catches. The Broncos are perfect 3-0 SU & ATS at home, having outscored opponents by a 21.3-11.0 margin.

One would also be remiss not to mention the NFL’s top total defense and the exploits of linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who has already posted 10 sacks.

DiamondSportsbook.com established Denver as three-point home underdogs and the number has stuck all week. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS as a home team catching and with the total at 40, are 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game. The Steelers are 6-19 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and 13-5 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. In this head-to-head series, dogs have covered four straight and six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER.

The Steelers cover if Roethlisberger stays patient against very strong and fundamentally sound Denver D. The Broncos secondary can lock up receivers in man coverage, placing greater emphasis on using TE Miller. The normally reliable Denver offensive line had all kinds of problems with Baltimore blitzes last week, which should give Pittsburgh confidence they can get to Orton. Pitt is -3 in turnover margin, improve that number on Monday and victory ensues.

The Broncos cover if Orton does a better job in recognizing the blitz. Though last week he didn’t make a lot of obvious mistakes, the check downs were too often in the three-to-five yard range. Coach Josh McDaniels and Orton have to be able to hit receivers moving forward for additional gains. When McDaniels was at New England, they would spread the Steelers defense throwing deep to expand zone and come underneath on crossing routes, with additional room created. Pass catchers Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler are capable of creating such an attack. Expect Denver to play games to free up Dumervil, to use his explosive quickness against Big Ben, who will hold the ball.

System Play – Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3, having won four out of their last five games, taking the field in November. (36-12 ATS, L12Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

The Chargers will look to bolt to lead on Monday Night

The Chargers waited until Week 13 last season to get their act together and snagged the division title on the final Sunday of the season. This year’s push for the AFC West crown needs to begin on Monday night when they host upstart Denver, which comes off its fifth win out of the gate.

San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t enjoyed a fast start since 2006 when it won four of its first five and finished 13-3. It lost three of four to start the following season and was 2-3 at this same time a year ago. At .500 and coming off a bye as well as a 38-28 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 4, head coach Norv Turner can’t put his finger on one thing that’s ailing his talented club that is 6-15-3 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

Fatigue won’t be to blame if San Diego drops this critical Monday night contest against the Broncos. The Chargers will have had 15 days to prepare its No. 26th ranked defense. They have really missed NT Jamal Williams, surrendering 151 yards on the ground (27th). Coach Turner’s team is in must-win mode, and fortunately, has done just that versus Denver of late, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six meetings. They’ve also done well at home under Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS after beating New England and head into their bye week next Sunday. Denver had a myriad of defensive issues a year ago, but not anymore. Its resurgence has been led by a unit that was nothing short of a sieve in 2008, yielding 28 points per game, including 90 in two meetings with the Chargers. Through the first five weeks, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has directed a group that allowed 43 points (1st in the NFL) and no more than 17 in any game. Even against the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Broncos didn’t come apart and pitched a shutout in the second half and are second in total defense.

The Broncos are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games on the road vs division squads. Denver won its only game vs. an AFC West foe so far, snapping a skid of 3-15 ATS vs. division rivals.

Denver opened as four-point road underdogs and once the public took a closer look, they moved them to three-point dogs. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS versus AFC opponents with rest. DiamondSportsbook.com has the total at 43.5 and Denver is 16-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. San Diego is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous outing and is 20-6 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Denver covers if they establish the run against San Diego. With no Williams in the middle, Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann should get a great push, opening lanes for rookie Knowshon Moreno to earn tough yards inside and burst either way with an opening. The Broncos have started slow each of the last two games, trailing by 10 points early. Though coach Josh McDaniels and his staff have made outstanding adjustments at halftime, with Denver an otherworldly 59-7 in the second half, that might not work as well on the road. A confident team with a quick start could add discomfort to a division club not playing at their level with a first quarter burst. Phillip Rivers is arguably the best deep passer in the NFL, the safeties have to maintain their integrity and limit big gains.

San Diego covers if they play with the needed urgency in a division game with plenty of rest. The Chargers were pancaked at Pittsburgh, before making late rally. Falling behind to Denver plays into their hands as their defense is even tougher with a lead. San Diego has to improve dramatically on first down on offense and defense. They rank 25th is first down efficiency offensively and opponents convert 49 percent of third downs, mostly because of earlier down failures. The Chargers have generated the fewest amount of third and longs in the league. Try and make QB Kyle Orton a difference-maker, not a game manager like he has been for the most part. Take the early lead, play solid run defense and have Orton play from behind for significant periods of time.

Monday Night System – Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Jay Cutler returns to Mile High City

Edward Everett Hale wrote a short story about the death of poor Philip Nolan back in the early 1800’s and based on the path Jay Cutler’s mouth and actions are leading him, he could follow in Mr. Nolan’s footsteps. Hale wrote of Nolan’s death as “A Man without a Country” and Cutler this year is making enemies every time his lips start flapping. (Gosh, Jay Cutler sure looks different out of uniform. Or maybe I pulled the wrong Jay Cutler picture)

Cutler would be wise to keep his pie-hole shut Sunday night and absorb the booing the Denver Broncos faithful will rein on him and just play football. The former Vanderbilt product (This is supposed the Harvard of the South, right) showed a rocket arm with oodles of potential in the Rockies, unfortunately proved to have skin thinner than a slice of salami, talking his way out of the Mile High City when his new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t shower him with love and had the gall to check into the services of other available quarterbacks.

Once traded to Chicago, the now windy Cutler, fit right into the Windy City, ripping Broncos fans (later apologizing) compared to Bears’ loyalists and later suggesting Devin Hester is limited as pass receiver. Of course Culter hasn’t exactly made anyone forget Billy Wade or Sid Luckman (very old school Bears QB’s) by his performances thus far, other than having All-Pro foot in mouth offseason.

Lovie Smith’s Bears have looked like most NFL teams this time of year, part choppy and part pretty good. Chicago played well at home last week in containing the Giants in 17-3 as 2.5-point favorites. They will look to do the same in Denver, but are 2-12 ATS off a home win.

Coach McDaniels acted like a rookie coach the way he handled the Cutler saga, but could not have bargained for his best receiver Brandon Marshall, would be so insubordinate he’d have to suspend for the rest of the preseason, with the rest of the story to evolve.

Quarterback Kyle Orton has looked out of place in Denver uniform, throwing numerous bad passes (including interception left-handed). The Denver front office put on happy face after trading for Orton in Cutler deal, hoping the former Purdue chucker could just manage games, much like he did in Chicago. Though nothing really matters yet, Orton has definitely not settled into his new surroundings.

Maybe positive support from the home fans will help, as they see Orton in Broncos home uniform for first time. Denver is 11-2 ATS at home after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Broncos as two-point favorites with total listed at 38. Denver is 11-1 ATS when they are below .500 in the preseason. The Bears are 9-21 ATS in the final two weeks of the exhibition season and 12-3 OVER in road games off one or more games going Under the total.

The NBC crew should have field day with this matchup which starts at 8 Eastern.