Tim Tebow's New Doo

Not everyone can where this look. Well actually nobody can, not even Tim Tebow.

Welcome to the NFL T-squared!

Being as rookie can really suck!

Saturday Special's

The last three posts we are 9-1, let’s line them up for Saturday and see how we do. We have NBA system in Brew Town today at 30-6 ATS. Top Trend flat dead perfect and Steve of the LCC goes after yet another MLB Free winner. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Everyone assumed the NFL teams know what they are doing when it comes to drafting, they don’t. Plenty of teams make lots of mistakes. Jacksonville’s first pick was a reach and many others were questionable.

Personally I hope Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow go on to have long NFL careers, proving all the nay-sayers wrong.

Baltimore picking Mount (blob) Cody could turn out to be a steal. He fits their defense and if he decides to mature and drop 50 lbs., could be play-yer.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against teams like the Bucks when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team, 43.5-45.5 percent allowed, against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games permitting a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis is 11-0 in road night games over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection sees Tampa Bay bouncing back from upset loss.

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Wagers to consider for NFL Draft

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.

If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)

We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over Two -650
Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380
Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300
Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160
Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250
Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140
Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240
Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145
Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500
Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120
Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290
Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135
Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170
Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130
No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

Florida and Alabama for SEC Title

As soon as the first BCS ratings were announced, it was a foregone conclusion these two SEC teams would meet again for what is essentially a semi-final game for the national championship. This is the second year in a row these teams will meet sporting a perfect records, however Alabama (12-0, 7-4 ATS) has closed the gap, now 5.5-point underdogs compared to +10 a season ago. The Crimson Tide have tailback Mark Ingram running behind five behemoths.

Quarterback Greg McElroy has rectified mid-season slump and again is on target to Julio Jones and other pass-catchers. The defense is led by nose tackle Terrence Cody and has a number of large bodies and they have been ranked with Florida all season among the top three defenses in college football. Bama is 13-5 ATS after eight or more consecutive straight up wins.

Just how good has the Florida (12-0, 6-5 ATS) football program been the last several of years? This senior class is 47-6, the best ever in the long history of the SEC and they are impressive 31-17-2 ATS, often facing spreads bigger than the Mt. Cody. Besides the numbers, this Florida team wants to leave an indelible mark, like the basketball team did a few years back.

The Gators are trying to be back-to-back champions and be first Florida squad to claim a national championship being unbeaten. Tim Tebow (that's him in the picture in case you weren't sure) has put up numbers and accomplished feats that arguably make him the greatest college football player of all-time. The offense lacked the playmakers of a year ago but offensive line has pulled them through. The defense covered up what rough patches the offense suffered. The Gators are 9-2 ATS away from Gainesville after two or more consecutive straight up wins.

This is a de facto BCS Final Four encounter. Florida has the edge because they have Tebow and shined on this stage every time they have played under Urban Meyer. Pick the style of play, the Gators eat it up. Teams with winning records, Florida is 11-2 ATS. You play great defense and hold teams to 17 or fewer points, the Gators are 6-0 ATS. What about teams with high scoring offenses that total 31 or more points a game, 8-1 ATS the last three years. Did we mention Tin Tebow?

Job one of Alabama’s tremendous defense; take away the Florida dive play, that means you Mr. Cody. If LB Rolando McClain is making tackles within four yards of line of scrimmage, the Crimson Tide defense is doing its job. The Florida passing tends to run in streaks during games, don’t let Tebow get comfortable throwing the ball. Coach Nick Saban’s offensive line had played outstanding until last week in Auburn. They have to be great against fabulous Florida defense and they got early Christmas present, not having to deal with DE Carlos Dunlap (suspended for drunk driving charges). Mark Ingram can’t run like he did last week and QB Greg McElroy cannot crumble in the moment for a team that is 7-0 ATS away from home vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards per attempt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Gators as favorites; however from our friends at Playbook.com, we find No.1 teams are 2-9 and 1-10 ATS off a win by 25 or more points. The total has been steady at 41 and Florida is 7-1 UNDER after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games and Alabama is 11-2 UNDER after five or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This has the making of classic defensive struggle and Florida is 6-4 and 5-4-1 ATS since 1992.

3DW Line – Florida by 2

Trick or Treat CFB Wagering

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Tech’s loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Here’s hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies. Numbers courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia 3:30E CBS

Though this year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party won’t carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn’t have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. “We kind of operate around here on urgency. That’s not something we’re ashamed of,” Meyer said recently. “We’re not playing perfect, and there are times we’re not playing very good at all,” Meyer elaborated. “We’re not on the same planet statistically as last year. I’m not happy where we are at right now.” Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

3DW Line -Florida by 13

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College 3:30E ESPNU

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasn’t stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.’s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

3DW Line – Boston College by 5.5

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

3DWLine – Miami by 2.5

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota 8:00 BTN

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 3

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State 8:00E ABC/GP

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same player’s just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasn’t been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesn’t appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State can’t continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma State’s chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

3DW Line – Texas by 5

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon 8:00E ABC/GP

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kelly’s defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie “Groundhog” with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkley’s confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masoli’s favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregon’s time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

3DW Line - Oregon by 5.5

Do the Tigers have enough in the tank to outlast Florida?

There is nothing like a SEC Saturday night game in person and though a few fistfights could be started about what is the best location, Baton Rouge has no peer. LSU is grateful circumstances worked out that they host top-ranked Florida at Tiger Stadium at night, where they win over 80 percent of the time once the sun goes down.

In the collegiate sense, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow are Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Tebow is the perfect quarterback to run Meyer’s read option offense and though other quarterbacks are blessed with better skills in other areas just like Montana, the list is short where these two quarterbacks stand in history in their respective sports.

Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS) is more than Tim Tebow and chances are we will find out how much more, with Tebow’s playing time an uncertainty due to concussion. During the off-week, coach Meyer and his offensive coaches have devised a separate package for sophomore backup John Brantley, which includes more I-formation sets. Brantley supposedly is more a NFL-type quarterback in throwing style and arm strength.

While many people are already drooling about the possibility of Florida and Alabama rematch in the SEC title game, think about these numbers for the Gators in the statistics.

Points allowed – 1st
Total defense -1st
Points scored – 2nd
Total offense - 3rd
Rushing yards -1st

At this point of the season, it’s nearly impossible to have a more complete Ladders resume. Much like the Florida basketball team that came back to create a legacy, this football team appears hell-bent on doing the same. Florida is 6-1 ATS the last three years as SEC road favorites.

LSU (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS) is No.4 in the country based on preseason rankings and other teams being upset, not on current body of work. Coach Les Miles is still seeking consistent play from his offense. The misfires have been a combination of QB Jordan Jefferson not hitting open receivers and the offensive line not giving running backs enough time to run up a hole for yardage. The Tigers offense is among the poorest in the country (99th in total offense) in gaining real estate.

The defense is not up to usual standards, nowhere near the Top 25 in the country, ranked 39th in allowing 321.6 yards. A schedule that has included UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State just proves how lackluster the defense has been. LSU is 5-15 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points a game.

However, this is Saturday night in Bayou Country. A bowl of gumbo and plate of jambalaya goes down real easy with adult beverages. Bookmaker.com has LSU as seven-point underdogs with total of 44.5. The Tigers may be 0-7 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season, but LSU can compete physically. Remember, a below average Tennessee team was capable of making Florida one dimensional on offense on the road, a far more talented Tiger bunch can at least do the same before the home folks. As CBS analyst Gary Danielson noticed, Jefferson is comfortable throwing the ball despite running reputation and has solid wide receivers.

No matter who is taking the snaps, Florida will attack LSU front, which given the talent, would be considered roman ‘a clef if put into literary terms (41st against the run). The Gators running game should force coach Miles to bring up more defenders, leaving better passing lanes. The Gainesville group is 13-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS against fellow SEC members. A choppy offensive plays right into the hands of hungry Gators defense, who could stymie the Cleveland Browns, let alone LSU.

Since 1998, LSU is 4-7 and 3-8 ATS against Florida. The home team is 5-12 ATS the last 17 years and the Bengal Tigers haven’t covered as home underdogs since 2000. (0-3 ATS)

Kickoff is at 8 Eastern on CBS.

3DW Line – Florida by 8

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Inside the mind of Professional Sports Bettor

Fezzik is a professional gambler living in Las Vegas. He’s made a name for himself winning the 2008 Hilton Super Contest with 67.5 percent record against the spread on 85 wagers. Last year he also finished second in college football in Leroy’s contest, with 53-31 ATS record. He’s a featured guest on many Vegas sports betting shows since arriving in Sin City and has joined forces with Anthony Curtis at LVASports.com, which is populated by many of the industry's top gambling professionals. We sat down with Fezzik and picked his brain.


Doug Upstone: You are a highly acclaimed professional gambler, explain what that means?

Fezzik: What it means is you make you living by winning at gambling. I would call myself an “advantage player”. I will also play poker and blackjack, anything I can get an advantage at. Primarily its sports betting, that’s the most lucrative.

DU: With the football season fast approaching, explain your typical work week schedule in terms of preparation?

Fezzik: For me, you have to start on Sunday evening. Most professional gamblers I know are betting the halftime numbers on the late games and are preparing for opening numbers. For the very best players, there is no time to rest, they are not watching games to see how their bets turn out, though they may have them on, they are focused on the opening lines for the following week.

They are making their numbers for the following week on college and NFL games, so they are ready to bet as soon as the lines come up on Sunday afternoon. Because of their skill, they are able to get some really sharp bets. These bettors are not looking for in-depth analysis; they are searching for oddsmakers mistakes. They are looking for numbers they know are off by two points. Any number that is off by two or more points and they think is obvious that anybody who does serious work in studying numbers, they will just fire (bet), even if the limits are low. They are going to hit what they see as mistakes.

On Monday, they are looking at props for Monday Night Football, looking to play a middle if available or fading a public move on the side or total.

Myself, on Monday I start breaking down totals on college football for the following week, since those numbers don’t come until Tuesday.

Starting on Tuesday, everything to this point has just been my opinion. I will meet with a group of sharp bettors in Las Vegas and kick around thoughts and ideas, often focusing in on certain games and possible player injuries. This is the more intense handicapping day. If we are all in agreement, I’ll shop for the best number and bet more on that game.

Wednesday is supposed to be an off day, but it seldom is, even if the lines have stabilized by this point. It’s fairly typical for me to work until 3 in the morning Monday night and get up at 7AM on Tuesday. I try and sleep in on Wednesday’s to prevent further sleep deprivation. Wednesday is usually date night and Thursday I return to handicapping looking for more particular advantages. I should add, in between I make any number of bets on games, be it sides or totals. Thursday my attention shifts to the various contests I entered and study the lines for what I might play. For me Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are similar.

DU: In summation, you look to attack weak numbers early and if drastic changes occur, you will address those situations if they arise?

Fezzik: Exactly. Thursday is real good for checking weather reports, if I already like an Under and adverse weather is a possibility, I’ll fire on a game that coincides with my number at current value. I won’t play an Under because of bad weather if my numbers come out higher to start.

DU: What led you to this lifestyle?

Fezzik: Always a math geek, always good at numbers and probabilities, forecasts. I view it as day trading; it’s really the same as trading on the stock market, with the exception it’s probably easier to win at this.

DU: Would you recommend this to others?

Fezzik: No. Unless you are really good at math. Most people are not very good at math and those that are move on to make really good money at other lines of work.

DU: What does a professional gambler do for fun?

Fezzik: What’s nice about being a professional gambler is you can always gamble for fun. When I’m running around I might play in poker tournament that isn’t high stakes. I might enter a $100.00 poker tournament, just to play live poker, that’s fun. I like casinos, I like hanging out in sportsbooks.

I do like to go hiking up Mt. Charleston here in Vegas, which is almost 12,000 feet. It’s great to go to Lee Canyon, which is about 9,000 feet. I was there recently and it was 80 degrees, when it was 115 degrees in Vegas. I’ll try to shoot out to Shakespearean festival in Southern Utah before the season starts. I like to play golf, though I’m not very good at it. Golf in Las Vegas is one of the best values in the summer time, playing great courses from $25.00.

DU: If you weren’t a professional gambler, what would you be doing?

Fezzik: I’m pretty sure I’d be in the financial services arena, probably pricing variable annuities or being a bond trader.

DU: Do you have a preference of college or pro football?

Fezzik: I like pro football better, but I was forced to focus on college football more, since the numbers are weaker and it’s easier to beat them. The marketplace dictates the college numbers are more beatable.

DU: Where have you found the greatest opportunities in sports wagering, sides or totals?

Fezzik: The totals are easily the weaker market. The average football better wagers less than $500.00 a game. Why would they bother to beat the most difficult thing to beat, NFL sides, instead of betting college totals? The answer is they are not very good at it as recreational players.

If you told me I could only bet $500.00 a game, I’d go bet WNBA totals and college basketball totals, clearly, which are easier to beat. The frustration is if I want to bet $2,000 on college basketball total, I might have to drive to four places, which is very difficult. The great advantage of betting a NFL side, I can wager $10,000 on a single bet at one location. If you are truly good at wagering in the NFL, you can bet your opinions forcefully and with volume.

DU: What are some of your favorite wagers for the upcoming season?

Fezzik: Do you want the ones still available or the ones that are long gone?

DU: You decide.

Fezzik: I got Seattle at +275 to win the NFC West. Denver and Tampa Bay are both likely to stink this year. If you were able to play Denver at Un7.5 this year, you have a tremendous bet. You have a good bet at U7 and a marginal bet at U6.5 wins and anything less than that is probably a bad bet. Tampa Bay Un7 is great bet; Un6.5 is good bet and Un6, garbage. It’s hard for people to hear that. They wonder how can it be a great bet at Un7 and be a terrible bet Un6? I tell them, it’s worth 100 cents to move one point on a an NFL total, if I told you a baseball team was a great bet at +200 but a bad bet at +100, you would nod your head and say that makes sense.

DU: The Florida Gators are ranked number one and the defending champions. They also have what appears to be a favorable schedule. Do you see them going unbeaten and finishing No.1 again or who else do you like?

Fezzik: Florida is the clear favorite and a monster with Tim Tebow back along with 11 defensive starters. If you give me the field against Florida, I’d take the field. In reviewing the numbers, Florida has about a 38 percent chance of winning the national championship, which is huge number. If I had to do a forecast, I’d say they would win 11 games. LSU has them at home on October 10th, which would seem the game the Gators could fall, but it will be tough to trip them up.

DU: Should the average football bettor be aggressive to start the season or be more cautious?

Fezzik: This is one of my pet peeves, since all the experts say to start slow. In my opinion, that is terrible advice. The very best wagers are made in May for the upcoming football season. The people that do their homework early and quickly, make bets like Broncos and Bengals as Pick (now Bengals -3), which is just a sick bet. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but you won’t find a better play for a variety of reasons. I see this closing at Bengals -3.5.

Last year in Week 5 on Sunday night, Pittsburgh was getting 5.5 points at Jacksonville and +6 was available at different outlets. Clearly, that is going to be a better bet than anything you find Week 10. Earlier in the year, the numbers are much further off then later in the year. For those waiting for perfect information, comes perfect lines or very tight lines. Your largest wagers should come early in the year, if you are prepared. And I don’t know any professional gambler that would disagree with that.

DU: Based on your accomplishments, what advice would you pass along to any sports bettor to give them the best chance to win?

Fezzik: I would simulate the first 200 bets and track how you are doing before betting. Keep track if you are winning or losing and write down why you would have made the bet. Next if you want to bet, I would bet peanuts; way less than you think you should bet. If you can have access to advantage player, I would frequent forums that cater to gaining knowledge. In blackjack, BJ21com, Stanford Wong’s website. I’m biased toward LVASports.com, where I’m a moderator on Anthony Curtis’ website. SharpSportsBetting.com and EOG.com are other great sites to go and ask questions and learn.

It’s hard to determine who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Don’t confuse the vast majority of the touts with a professional gambler. For the most part, handicappers can be successful, but they can’t share the great expertise and teach you anything.

A great example of this is touts have their Game of the Year late in the season, when as I just explained, some of the best opportunities are early in the year. They would never think to have a Game of the Year the first few weeks of the season, because they believe this would make them look foolish.

DU: The cappers that have Game of the Year’s early end up having eight or 10, to keep the customer on the hook.

Fezzik: I like John Kelly’s advise which is “listen to everyone, follow know one”. Do your research, listen to what people like and why and go back and do more research.

DU: I think too frequently everyone is looking for the “hot guy”, whether they are a handicapper or somebody on winning streak in a forum. These guys tend to dry up in time.

Fezzik: A one year record is totally irrelevant to me. Give me someone’s five-year record or lifetime record that’s what’s really significant. Take a coin and flip it 80 times and you’ll be shocked how often you get 50 tails and 30 heads.

I wanted to emphasize this, I hear all the time, “this is the right side or the wrong side of a game”. Every game has a right side for both teams if you give me the right number. Not long ago I liked Winnipeg and Calgary Under 51 points in Canadian Football, but give me 48, sure I’d play Over, since I think the number should be 49.5. I can’t stand when people say “this is the right side of the game”. That is almost never the case. You give me enough points and I’ll take the lesser team in the right value spot.

DU: Do you play many parlays yourself?

Fezzik: There are three reasons to play parlays. Reason One- You are laying less than a $1.10 on each progressive side. Standard odds on a parlay are betting 5 to win 13 on a two-team parlay. If you win more than 13, you are effectively laying less than a $1.10 on each individual bets. You find a book that pays 14 to 5 on two-teamer, you would be playing badly not to be playing parlay. Why not play less than $1.10 if you are going to bet a lot of games?

Reason Two – If there is a correlation. An obvious correlation would be big favorites -200 or higher.

Reason Three – To circumvent the limits at a sportsbook. If you have $500 limit, you could parlay few games and parlay $300 bets and next think you know you have $1,100 in action. That’s an excellent reason to play parlays.

One thing I read is authors saying “If you hit 55 percent, your return on investment is higher playing parlays”. It’s a correct statement, but you won’t be making more money betting parlays, instead you should be betting more on straight bets.

DU: Anything else you would like to add?

Fezzik: Advantage players like me have different perspective on how to bet sports. If a person is wagering for recreational purposes, betting their own money and having fun doing what they want to do, that’s all good.

DU: Great insights, I appreciate it.

Fezzik: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun.

CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue - Part Dos

In part two of our article about college football pre-season magazines, we’ll take a look at the other five conferences, the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, MAC and Sun Belt. Three of the five leagues and or divisions have unanimous choices and it doesn’t take brain surgeon to figure what teams those are, with a few others up for grabs. Read on to learn more and start preparing to place your bets.

Big Ten
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan State
4) Iowa
5) Illinois
6) Michigan
7) Wisconsin
8) Minnesota
9) Northwestern
10) Purdue
11) Indiana

Analysis- Here’s a surprise; Ohio State and Penn State are the favorites to win the Big Ten. Well, not really. The Buckeyes reload with the best of them and they will find out early where they are on national scope, hosting USC. Honestly, not sure why the Nittany Lions are rated this high with all the personnel losses and they haven’t recruited like the other top schools in the country. This also might be indictment of Big Ten. Michigan State continues to improve under coach Mark Dantonio, however quarterback and running back positions must be filled. Iowa could finish higher if lines on both sides of the pigskin dominate. Illinois could be most explosive offense in the conference and they might need to be, with so many new faces in back seven of defense. Rich Rodriguez better have a winning record in Ann Arbor, or fans of the Maize and Blue will really become restless. Minnesota opens new outdoor venue, but also has trips to Penn State and Ohio State that will impede progress. The rest of the teams have more holes than a Dunkin Donuts. Another so-so year in Big Ten Country.

Pac-10
1) USC
2) California
3) Oregon
4) Oregon State
5) UCLA
6) Arizona State
7) Stanford
8) Arizona
9) Washington
10) Washington State

Analysis – When somebody raises the bar to a new level, aren’t those chasing the lead dog supposed to at least catch them in time, if not surpass their efforts? In spite of only having 12 returning starters (three on defense), USC is the unanimous choice to repeat as Pac-10 champs. Besides Pete Carroll’s ability to fill a three-deep roster with incredible talent, this happens to be the year the Pacific 10 is quarterback poor. Only Washington and Oregon have field leaders that can be counted on to start the year. If one team has legit shot at the Trojans this year, it is California. If Kevin Riley improves accuracy to receiving targets, the 15 other Bears’ players that started last season should be even hungrier. Cal will know where they stand by early October with games at Oregon and USC, the first two on Pac-10 slate. Oregon has new coach in Chip Kelly needing to rebuild O-Line. Oregon State will have several fresh eager Beavers on defense. The rest are trying cover up weakness, with the Washington universities trying to lay foundation.

SEC East
1) Florida
2) Georgia
3) Tennessee
4) So. Carolina
5) Kentucky
6) Vanderbilt

SEC West
1) Mississippi
2) Alabama
3) LSU
4) Arkansas
5) Auburn
6) Mississippi State

Analysis – In the East Division, Florida is the hands-down choice to be play for SEC title again and is most everyone’s No.1 team to start the season. Georgia has just the kind of team that excels when in this position. Coach Mark Richt’s best teams have been those with lower expectations. Tennessee’s Lane Kiffin will eventually have to stop talking and coach, trying to bring in players that can knock off the Gators and Bulldogs. Steve Spurrier has found out top recruits like Gainesville better than Columbia, SC. As mundane as the East appears, the West Division should be rollicking fun. Ole Miss has gathered the most first place votes, with a talented squad led by QB Jevan Snead and Oxford will play host to Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, with Florida or Georgia nowhere in sight. If Greg McElroy is as prepared to lead the Crimson Tide as he believes, those that choose Bama to win the West should be correct. Coach Les Miles has always been unafraid of change and brought in top notch coaches like John Chavis (14 years at Tennessee) to improve his defense. Check with Bookmaker.com for the latest odds. These Tigers will be trouble. This is still the best conference in football by fair margin. (Did you guess that was Tim Tebow pic?)

MAC-East
1) Buffalo
2) Bowling Green
3) Temple
4) Ohio U
5) Akron
6) Kent State
7) Miami-O

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan
2) Western Michigan
3) Northern Illinois
4) Ball State
5) Toledo
6) Eastern Michigan

Analysis- The MAC conference has its up and down years and this could be one of the not so great years with five new coaches among the 13 universities. What last season proved is mediocrity or losing, won’t cut it in the MAC anymore. This conference needs to put fannies in the seats and have teams that play well with all it’s weekday televised games during the course of the season. Buffalo created vast excitement, winning the East Division and is the odds-on choice to repeat, with Bowling Green and Ohio U. snagging first place votes. In the West Division, the two best quarterbacks in the league reside on that half of the ledger. Dan LeFevour will once again be at the helm for Central Michigan, while Tim Hiller is under center for Western Michigan. None of the rest of the squads are presumed to compete for West crown. Everyone is still scratching their heads at Ball State, why Brady Hoke left his alma mater to coach San Diego State. At best a lateral career move for Hoke.

Sun Belt
1) Troy
2) Arkansas State
3) Florida Atlantic
4) Middle Tennessee State
5) UL-Monroe
6) Florida International
7) Louisiana- Lafayette
8) North Texas
9) Western Kentucky

Analysis- Maybe it’s the nickname Trojans, but Troy has the same appeal in the Sun Belt Conference that USC has out West, being unanimous choice. Troy joined the Sun Belt in 2004 and has won three championships in a row. Coach Larry Blakeney recruits well, sets high expectations and hits the road to play top teams like Florida this season. The league as a whole is improving and Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic are part of that development. The Red Wolves are loaded at skill positions, while the Owls are flying with confidence, having won six of last seven contests a year ago, including the Motor City Bowl upset of Central Michigan. Middle Tennessee State has 19 starters back, however many played as freshmen and sophomores. The Blue Raiders have upset potential if Dwight Dasher emerges as quarterback. The remaining group will try to avoid last place, hoping its newest member Western Kentucky, will occupy that spot in 2009.

Total Betting Withdrawal Today

This is never a fun day. The whole Home Run Derby is a mild distraction Monday night, watching long prestigious shots that look like they could hit the Mississippi River on the one bounce in St. Louis, but that is not what I’m talking about. This is about no real sports to bet on. There two days every year, where no major sports are available to wager on, the day before and after the baseball All-Star game.

Today is the worst of the two days by far in my opinion, because most of the time there is a WNBA game, horse racing or something to at least think about betting on, but for this Monday, well it stinks. (Couldn’t use the word I wanted)

I mean really, think about it, especially when it comes to basketball followed by baseball. You study, analyze and go over a myriad of possibilities for months daily and suddenly; you’re Will Smith in “I am Legend”, nothing to do. Damn it’s not fair.

So what does a sports bettor do, this is what I’m thinking about. I bought a fresh batch of college and pro football annuals, so this year instead of working 80+ hours a week getting to know all the ins and outs of all the teams at the end of August, I won’t procrastinate and get a head start.

(Is this Tim Tebow’s sixth year of eligibility?) In fact, I just received in the mail my 2009 StatFox Edge (cheesy plug) and I’ll start combing thru what college starters are coming back, along with the all important quarterback position and the number of linemen and backups reporting. Actually this is really a good idea, because the last time I was truly prepared for almost anything was my sister’s wedding and that was because my parents were all over me.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m ready to go when the bell sounds, it’s the whole preparation deal is not my strongest suit. I’ve checked around and New England, the Giants and Philadelphia look like Super Bowl potential teams at Bookmaker.com, along with the defending champion Steelers. Pittsburgh has plenty to admire, nevertheless, I seldom wager on NFL futures on last year’s champions.

Gee, I wonder if Brett Favre is going to sign with Minnesota, they even have a picture on the internet of the place he bought. Or possibly, Favre’s going into real estate investment after staying up late one night and watching one of the guru’s talk about buying homes “with almost nothing down”.

“Hi I’m Brett Favre and I’ve made millions playing football and turned into prima donna, however, I think I retired for the last time and now am buying real estate properties across the country, trying to improve my image and doing my part to stimulate the economy, all while wearing my Wrangler jeans.”

I thought of something else I could do, review all my notes I made on baseball before the season. That might be a pretty good way to see if what I believed is still true or am I living under false pretense. I think the last time I did this Vida Blue was pitching in the All-Star game as a rookie. I’m having an average baseball season by my standards; maybe a refresher is a good idea.
I have golf wagering down cold and would study the British Open this week anyways, but now I have to fit it in somewhere the next couple of days.

This is invigorating thinking about being productive with this time off. I can catch up, look ahead and act like people that really work for a living.

Come Wednesday morning, I’ll be waiting at this computer for Thursday’s eight baseball games to have official odds, because that is what gambling degens like me do, live for the action.

Written by Red Wydley.

The Day After College Football Ends

Congratulations to the Florida Gators on winning the national championship. Tim Tebow has a legacy few in college football have had before him. The desire and will he has to succeed is truly remarkable. I know Bob Stoops will receive a ton of bad press and hate mail, but the fact remains, in all four games his Oklahoma team played for the national championship, it was clear, not by a large margin in each case, he had the lesser team. Much like the Buffalo Bills during their Super Bowl losing streak, a couple of plays made, could have turned the outcome in a much different manner.

Like Florida, we were a perfect on Thursday (2-0) and look to continue with an outstanding NBA system that is 82.8 percent on underdogs. We’ll hand out two Top Trends, as they relate to the same game in college hoops this evening. The LLC has been doing quite well as a consensus; we release their Best Bet tonight. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points like Indiana after allowing 100 points or more two straight games against opponent, after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. Teams like the Pacers in this situation are 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent since 1996.

Free Basketball Trends -2) San Diego is 13-2 ATS off a home win, while tonight’s opponent San Francisco is 0-9 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has been exceptional of late, so let’s try them tonight in the NBA. Five members are on the Miami Heat with no detractors.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

BCS Championship Wagering Preview

Finally! College football fans and football bettors have had to wait over a month for this day to arrive, the playing of the BCS national championship game. Along the way, we watched the Pac-10 surprise us, the Big Ten disappoint (again) and the elite of the Big 12 under whelm. We’ve listened to ESPN analysts give us mounds of information and been forced to stomach Dr. Lou and have been amazed at how little the Fox crew knows about college football. But none of that matters now, because Florida and Oklahoma are about to settle everything (we hope) on the field of play.

While the merits of one team having a shot for BCS title can be discussed vehemently, nobody can realistically argue these are not the two hottest teams to end the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow promised all of us after losing at home to Mississippi 31-30, nobody would play harder (You didn’t need YouTube to view this a thousand times) and he and his teammates made good on that promise as the Gators won last nine games by 36.4 points per game.

Oklahoma also had to show resolve and even when they did, it almost wasn’t enough. The Sooners lost to Texas (as everyone dressed in burnt orange is quick to remind the world) and had to do something the rest of the season that would make stand out, while keep on winning. All they did was average a sick 59.8 points per game the rest of the season, including passing the Big 6 0 in last five games. If you really think about, if Oklahoma had won the rest of their games, but averaged say 45 points a game, they probably would have never passed Texas.

We all know defense wins championships, but the best guess here is both coaches are setting up speed bumps or road blocks, knowing full well their is little either can do other than to cause confusion to slow down the other’s offense. Florida is stellar 10-2 ATS and 7-0 ATS against teams scoring 34 or more points and Oklahoma is 8-0 ATS after scoring 50 or more points.

On the year, Florida technically had a tougher schedule, meeting 10 bowl teams, compared to eight for Oklahoma. The Gators were 9-1 and 8-2 ATS, winning by 31.4 points per games. The Sooners were 7-1 and 6-2 ATS, winning by 29 PPG.

One absolutely delicious aspect of this matchup is the differences in the conferences during the regular season. In looking strictly at play within the conferences (excluding league championship games) the contrast couldn’t be any more stark. The SEC had two teams that scored 275 or more points in conference action (Florida and Alabama), compared to the Big 12, which saw seven schools pass the same point total. The average total score of a Southeast Conference contest was just over 46 points, while the Big 12 was 68 total points on the nose.

Bookmaker.com opened this title game at Florida at -3 and 72. After the wagering public got a look at how the each conference did in the bowls, they have moved the Gators up to five points, with the total dwindling to 69.5.

At this point, it becomes a matter of “what if”. This year’s Heisman winner Sam Bradford has been stupid good since losing to Texas, with 25 touchdowns and ONE interception. Only Texas and TCU “held” Oklahoma to 35 points and each was known for being able to pressure the quarterback. If Florida creates pressure up front with a few sacks and general steady pressure, Bradford might not be as confident in the pocket. Otherwise, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Florida is in a similar, yet different battle to win this encounter. The Gators three lowest rushing total games came against Miami-Fl., Ole Miss and Alabama, all games Florida had difficulties getting the offense going. As great as it is to see Tebow scurrying around and trying to bulldoze people over, all it really means is the running game is not working and his receivers are covered. Chances are Bob Stoops would love to see Tebow as Florida’s leading rusher in this game. The Gators need to run the ball first and are 6-0 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt and 8-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Oklahoma’s coach Stoops used to be known as “Big Game Bob”, however four BCS losses later, his reputation has been run aground and is 4-5 bowling, with only three covers. His counterpart Urban Meyer is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls.

If we have learned anything from the BCS bowl games, it’s about starting after a long layoff. Texas, Penn State and Alabama were all late to the party, with the latter two never recovering and the Longhorns taking to the final seconds to secure victory. Conversely, a hot start propelled USC and Utah to relatively easy wins.

Since they started using bowl games to determine the national champions, only once has one conference won three in a row, which was the SEC in 1978-80, can Oklahoma prevent history from repeating?

Will the Evil Genius Fluster Florida?

The SEC championship games returns to its roots so to speak, with this matchup. Florida and Alabama played in the first three Southeastern Conference title tilts starting back in 1992. The uncertainty of those games and what they meant on a larger scale came more into focus later with the birth of the BCS. The 2008 title game has kind of a Final Four feel about it, with the winner of these two tremendous teams moving on to the BCS championship. As opposed to the hoops counterpart, the loser is “relegated” to the Sugar Bowl, instead of the championship game.

Alabama whipped rival Auburn 36-0, doing what they do best, running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 50 times for 4.6 yards per carry and effectively averaged 17 yards per completion. Against the Gators, they must be able to keep the contest at their pace, not the frenetic Florida style. The Crimson Tide controls the ball for over 32 minutes a game and is 6-0 ATS away from home after two or more victories. On defense, Bama is third in the country, allowing 248.5 yards per game because of what they do up front. Also, they disguise coverage’s well, utilizing the zone blitz package that cuts down on the kind of big plays that occur when a blitzing team gets burned. Alabama is 6-0 ATS after allowing nine points or less in last game since Nick Saban became coach.

Florida has the look of national championship material, gator-izing opponents by 39.6 points per game since suffering only defeat to Mississippi. Let’s not joke around; today this is the best team in the country. Every other team in contention for the national championship has identifiable warts, except Florida. There is no faze of the game they are not excelling and would be favored against every team they would face in the national championship.

The Gators have shown a propensity to take down teams that hog the pigskin with a 13-3 ATS mark in road games vs. ball control teams, who have the ball 32 or more possession minutes a game.

2007 Heisman winner Tim Tebow might be picking up the same hardware as last year with a shining performance against the Tide. Tebow is a unique athlete in today’s world, everything he says he backs up. He took responsibility for the Ole Miss loss, off he and the Gators went. He’s led this team to 11-1 and 9-2 ATS record this year and Florida is 12-4 against the number after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Florida favored by 10-points with a total of 52. Using deduction reasoning, oddmakers are telling us the Gators won 31-21. Thus if Florida is to cover, they would also probably make a good Over bet, especially with home run potential. Conversely, if the Crimson Tide are to cover and pull the upset, they need to make this a 60 minute game, meaning punch Florida in the mouth a few times, get the running game going and see if the Gators can play defense for 30 or more minutes. This would in turn lead to an Under play.

Since 1992, these to schools have met five times in the postseason, compared to four in the regular season. Florida is 5-4 and 3-5-1 ATS and the number two team will be a rare favorite against the top team in the country. Going as far back as 1992, no unbeaten team has been a double digit underdog to a once beaten team after 10 or more games during the regular season.

CBS will have the telecast of what is the biggest game of the year in college to date at 4 Eastern and what might be later looked upon as the real championship game.