The last three posts we are 9-1, let’s line them up for Saturday and see how we do. We have NBA system in Brew Town today at 30-6 ATS. Top Trend flat dead perfect and Steve of the LCC goes after yet another MLB Free winner. Good Luck
What I thought yesterday- Everyone assumed the NFL teams know what they are doing when it comes to drafting, they don’t. Plenty of teams make lots of mistakes. Jacksonville’s first pick was a reach and many others were questionable.
Personally I hope Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow go on to have long NFL careers, proving all the nay-sayers wrong.
Baltimore picking Mount (blob) Cody could turn out to be a steal. He fits their defense and if he decides to mature and drop 50 lbs., could be play-yer.
Free Basketball System -1) Play Against teams like the Bucks when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team, 43.5-45.5 percent allowed, against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games permitting a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent.
Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and St. Louis is 11-0 in road night games over the last two seasons.
Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection sees Tampa Bay bouncing back from upset loss.
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The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.
If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)
We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over Two -650 Under Two +425
Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 1.5 -380 Under 1.5 +290
C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.
Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +100
Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 -300 Under 6.5 +220
Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.
Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One
Over 4.5 +160 Under 4.5 -200
It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.
Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One
Over Four -250 Under Four +190
Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.
Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 9.5 -115 Under 9.5 -115
Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.
Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 6.5 +140 Under 6.5 -180
Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.
Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 4.5 +240 Under 4.5 -320
It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.
Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be
Over 11.5 -145 Under 11.5 +115
Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st
Ndamukong Suh -500 Gerald McCoy +350
McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.
Earl Thomas +120 Joe Haden -150
Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.
Golden Tate +290 Demaryius Thomas -380
In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.
Eric Norwood +135 Jerry Hughes -170
This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.
Anthony Davis+170 Bryan Bulaga -220
This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.
Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round
Yes -130 No –Even
Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.
The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.
That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.
Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.
For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.
California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.
One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.
Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.
C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.
Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.
Being a Notre Dame football fan or supporter just isn’t as much fun as it used to be. Coming off regular seasons of 3-9 and 6-6 respectively, its put up or shut up time for the sometimes Fighting Irish. Will this finally be the year Charley Weis and quarterback Jimmy Clausen make Notre Dame football relevant again?
Weis might be on par with “the most interesting man in the world” who occasionally drinks Dos Equis beer, just in the gridiron sense. Weis came to South Bend as this larger than life character and sold everyone with his bravado and New Jersey tough-guy attitude. He was reported offensive genius behind the New England Patriots (until the next one came along) and was never shy about taking credit for Tom Brady’s growth and success.
Weis was 9-2 and 10-2 in his first two seasons, utilizing former coaches Bob Davie’s and Ty Willingham’s recruits as upperclassmen. In retrospect, Willingham’s firing makes more sense today, as the Irish have lacked talent from its junior and senior classes the previous two years.
Weis made a fundamental mistake to start, he should have preached patience like current president Barack Obama did on the campaign trail. That’s easier said then done with the Subway Alumni and big financial backers; however it would have gone a lot further than making promises he hasn’t kept.
Jimmy Clausen was to be the great savior, partnered with the perfect coach under the Golden Dome. This is a critical year for the junior Clausen also. His freshman season he was overwhelmed and played behind an offensive line that couldn’t keep an army of ants out of the backfield, let a lone a 300-pound defensive lineman. Clausen was much improved last season, but had several forgettable outings, like those against Boston College (0-17) and USC (3-38). Though Clausen had a spectacular game in the Hawaii Bowl, legends are not made around South Bend playing football in Hawaii on Christmas Eve.
DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame at Ov8.5 win total, which doesn’t sound like BSC material, unless they change the schedule back to nine games.
Offensively, Notre Dame has a chance to really be productive. Clausen can wing the pigskin and reports have greater dedication to making better throws, plus positive signs of improved accuracy, especially on out-routes and balls thrown in seven to 15-yard range outside the tackles. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd should be heard of a great deal as receivers and sophomore Kyle Randolph has the look of the next Notre Dame tight end who will end up playing Sunday’s once his college career is complete. This group of pass catchers is arguably the best in the country.
Notre Dame could pass the 8.5 win total, if the power running game returns. The Irish have averaged sickly 110 and 75 yards per game the last two seasons. To be taken seriously, the four returning offensive linemen must play like men, with the Irish averaging at least 150 yards per game, with a stable of above average running backs.
What will determine Weis’ fate probably is something he’s not a big part of, the Notre Dame defense. Six starters return with a load of uncertainty. Three returning lettermen are in secondary, meaning only three starters in the front seven. The Fighting Irish should be better in blitzing defense in year two of defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s style. Though far more athletes are on the two-deep roster, many are sophomores and juniors without a great deal of experience. In many top-flight programs, that would not be an issue, however Notre Dame hasn’t been in the class of elite football programs for some time.
Jeff Makinen of StatFox isn’t convinced the Irish are on the rise until they prove it. “Notre Dame has proven to be overrated year after year. Weis is 29-21 and 23-26-1 against the spread, not coach of the year material. Clausen has gotten a large amount of publicity, with what kind of results on the field? Ron Powlus (former Irish QB) was supposed to be great; I’m seeing similarities between the two quarterbacks. I’d bet Under until you see a reason to change.”
The schedule appears to be conducive to success, at least right today. Nevada, Washington, Boston College, Navy and Connecticut should all be winnable encounters at Notre Dame Stadium. Michigan will be improved, nevertheless is about where the Irish was last season after 3-9 campaign and Purdue brings in a new coach, giving Weis two shots at road wins. Washington State is rebuilding off 2-11 season and will meet the Irish in San Antonio, as showcase for potential Texas recruits to come to northern Indiana to play football and earn an exceptional education.
If Notre Dame is truly a better team, they win those eight games, period.
Concerns start with Michigan State, who continues to get better under coach Mark Dantonio and they have won and covered six straight in South Bend. Do the Irish finally put up a fight?
November road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford could be BCS berth games. The Panthers defeated Clausen and company 36-33 in overtime last season and they will give Notre Dame full attention with a bye week to follow. Coach Weis’ crew could catch a break in season closer against Stanford, who will have played Oregon, USC and bitter rival Cal in the previous three weeks.
For many followers and detractors of the Blue and Gold, the benchmark matchup is USC. The last three games have been losses by total score of 120-27 and it could have been worse. The Trojans are on 7-0 and 6-1 ATS roll against Notre Dame, but look to be the most vulnerable in years with three starters back on defense and new assistant coaches taking over. This doesn’t mean USC is reverting back to pre-Pete Carroll days, just the slightest opportunity for Weis to regain much of his lost stature.
The season will be a success if the Irish earn BCS berth. One rung down on the acceptability scale would be 9-3, with USC upset. Anything less could mean sorry Charlie.
Best educated guess is the Irish get to nine wins and cover the Over.
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