The Valley Title Game Preview

The Valley’s postseason tournament has gone according to script, with the top two teams meeting for the champions. Regular season champion Northern Iowa (27-4, 20-10 ATS) has given two defensive clinics, holding Drake and Bradley to each 40 points apiece in winning by 15 and 17 points respectively. The Panthers are 12-6 ATS after holding an opponent to under 60 points this season.

Coming into the tournament, the Panthers were second in the country in fewest points allowed at 58.4 per game and have done nothing to disprove the notion somebody in the NCAA Tournament is going to have to shoot well to beat them.

Northern Iowa is really playing for pride today before a national televised audience on CBS starting at 2:00 Eastern, since they are going to the Big Dance regardless. However, coach Ben Jacobson will talk about pride, winning both the regular season and Arch Madness tournament and having this special group of players be back to back champions. One aspect that won’t discussed but is very much on Jacobson’s mind, knowing with a win, his squad would be a deserving sixth seed based on the fact they have been in the lower echelons of the Top 25 a good portion of the season.

Wichita State (25-8, 13-13 ATS) is not a lock the NCAA Tournament and needs a win to punch their ticket. The Shockers have held off Missouri State and Illinois State for wins and covers and are 10-2 and 7-4 ATS off a spread victory.

For Wichita State to pull the upset, junior J.T. Durley has to avoid foul trouble, something he has not been able to do the last couple of days. The Shockers need his 11.5 points per game and five rebounds and can’t beat UNI with him playing cheerleader on the bench.

Teams are also putting defensive pressure on point guard Clevin Hannah and leading scorer (12.3 PPG) to disrupt Shockers offense and keep him from scoring. Opponents are playing him with bigger guards (Hannah is 5’11 155), using their strength to try to push him around. Hannah has responded by driving to the basket and passing to his big men. Nonetheless, he has 11 points in two games. Wichita State is 7-3 ATS against teams with winning percentage of .600 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Northern Iowa as the favorite and they have split with the Shockers, winning at home 59-56 and losing on the road 60-51, failing to cover in either instance. Wichita State could be the play since the underdog is 11-3 ATS in previous 14 meetings.

The total is important to consider also, since the tourney this season is 5-3 UNDER, which is consistent with the five prior years of 30-15 UNDER.

Missouri Valley Conference Wagering Overview

This will be the first conference of the more prominent mid-majors and they will enjoy a national audience to boot for its championship encounter. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State.

The Favorites

Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa are the defending champs and seek third title since 2004.

Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 and 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.

Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to championship, Illinois State will have to play superior defense like they have been lately and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.

The Long Shots

Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.

Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.

The Numbers

The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.

There have been 11 instances since 2004 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.

Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.

Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

The Outcome

In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.

The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.