What we learned from MLB Interleague Play

As per usual, the American League once again showed their superiority over their union partners from the National League in interleague play with a 134-118 edge. This marks the seventh straight time the junior circuit has been victorious, however for those thirsting for the 16-team league to finally win this event, this year was the closest the National League has been since this rein began in 2004. (AL won that year 126-125)

One of the humorous aspects each year is the managers that end up with a tougher draw, whine like Oksana Grigorieva (Mel Gibson’s soon to be ex) about what misfortune they have encountered.

Joe Torre was lightly complaining his team had to face the Angels six times, plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Detroit, which led to 4-11 record this year. Torre might have a slight argument, since his team faced better clubs than either San Francisco or San Diego, who are ahead of them in the standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers always play terrible against AL, thus this isn’t news and besides, who had the Padres in first place on July 1 in the NL West this season unless they were taking on Triple-A teams.

Over the course of a 162-game slate, there is going to be ups and downs and if a team is in one situation or the other, that more than anything will affect how they play and more likely determine their outcome.

The biggest benefactor of the interleague play was the Chicago White Sox, who single-handily accounted for 75 percent of the difference in the two leagues with their 15-3 record. The White Sox did have any easier draw, having to play Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington and taking on their sinking cross-town rivals the Cubs, didn’t hurt either. However, manager Ozzie Guillen’s club also swept first place Atlanta on the south side during their 11-game win streak and is right back in contention in the AL Central race with Minnesota and Detroit.

Texas and Boston were two other teams that improved their status whipping their National League counterparts. The Rangers contingent of opponents might already be out of the pennant chase, yet you have to tip your cap for franchise best 8-1 road trip, that included stops in Milwaukee, Florida and Houston. Texas returned home and swept Pittsburgh, to make win streak 11 and they start series with Los Angeles on 16-2 roll, 4.5 games ahead of the Angels.

The Red Sox were 13-5 in their interleague adventure and faced three solid clubs from the NL West and went toe to toe six times with the two-time National League champion Phillies. Their success moved them up to second place in the AL East standings, surpassing Tampa Bay and closing in on the Yankees.

With the Dodgers swimming into the interleague black hole with teams like Washington (5-13 interleague play), Pittsburgh (2-13) and Houston (3-12), somebody from the NL had to emerge victorious.

The biggest winner was the New York Mets at 13-5. Their 6-0 record over Baltimore and Cleveland could hardly be described as taxing, yet for a team that is 9-20 on the road everywhere else, that six-pack of visiting triumphs sure came in handy. The Metropolitans again had to face the Yankees six times and manager Jerry Manuel didn’t whine once, keeping his lips closed tight also facing division contenders like the Tigers and Twins.

Of the National Leaguer’s that were 9-6, division leader San Diego was most impressive with 4-2 road mark.

One final note, it would be a complete oversight not to mention the Pirates. Pittsburgh now holds the record for baseball futility with 17 consecutive losing seasons since Barry Bonds left town in 1992 as a free agent for San Francisco. Barring an unprecedented comeback, No. 18 just needs 32 more losses in the final 86 games. Their aforementioned pitiful interleague record of 2-13, saw them outscored by 2.8 runs per game, quite an accomplishment.

Make Umpires part of MLB Wagering Portfolio

This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever.

But umpires have other uses besides being screamed at like “Hey ump you stink” or “Come on blue get in the game”. Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.

This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.

Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.

This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.

Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.

Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)

Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2

Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.

Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)

Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3

One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.

One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.

These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.

You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.

Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.

The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.

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Base Hits can lead to Big Profits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored. (Tampa Bay 12-1 when they outhit opposition)

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

Minnesota and New York ALDS Preview

The New York Yankees went on an unparalleled spending spree last season and it ended up helping them have the best record in baseball at 103-59. Everyone knows that is fine and dandy, however how New York plays in October will determine if it was money well spent.

The Yankees haven’t played in the World Series since 2001 and haven’t won the Fall Classic since taking home the big trophy in years 1998-2000. Mr. Yankee Derek Jeter understands better than anybody why this team could be different.

“We have much better pitching, and this lineup allows everyone to be more aggressive because we have good hitters 1-9.”

New York’s dominance pops up in a couple of different ways. In games decided by two or more runs, they were 62-43. At the new Yankee Stadium they built a 57-24 record and if Minnesota or anyone dares to start a left-hander against them, good luck, with the Bronx Bombers 36-18.

The Minnesota will make the unlikely journey to New York riding high. The Twins won what might be the best baseball game anyone will see the rest of the season Tuesday night, taking down Detroit 6-5 in 12 sensational innings.

The Twins are the hottest team remaining, winning 17 of last 22, including the all important last five in a row. Minnesota will have their work cut out for them since they lost all seven games to the Yankees this season and they have one victory in last 11 tries playing in the Bronx.

The Yankees are easily the biggest favorite to win the four divisional series at -400 and are the odds on favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com to be champions yet again at +160 odds. Let’s see what the Yankees do.


Offensive – American League
Runs scored Minnesota 4th New York 1st
Home Runs Minnesota 9th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Minnesota 7th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 4th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Minnesota 5th New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Minnesota 11th New York 4th
Strikeouts Minnesota 10th New York 1st
Walks Minnesota 1st New York 11th
On base Ptc. Minnesota 7th New York 4th
Putouts Minnesota 6th New York 3rd
Errors Minnesota T-1st New York 5th

No rain in Seattle forecast with this system

Success is too often defined by winning championships, since only one team can walk away with the trophy. The Seattle Mariners (82-76, +10.2 units) fit the profile of a successful baseball team in 2009. After losing an American League worst 101 games last season, the Mariners have assured themselves of a winning season, with a 20+ game improvement.

Seattle is 45-32 this year as Safeco Field and will go for the sweep of the Oakland A’s (75-83, +7.2 units) this evening. The Mariners turnaround revolved around pitching, defense and very little hitting outside of always dependable Ichiro Suzuki. Seattle, going into the final few days of the season ranks sixth in runs allowed (4.3), but are dead last in runs scored (4.0) on the year.

The starting pitching has frequently allowed the bullpen to not be overexposed, which has made them more productive when called upon, despite not having overwhelming ability. This has been the case in this series, where the M’s bullpen has only seen 2 1/3 innings of work. Doug Fister (2-4, 4.50 ERA) will try and keep the good times flowing against an Oakland club that is 0-10 in road games when playing against teams with win percentage of 51 to 54 percent, in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Before last Sunday, the A’s were in the process of making their body of work look respectable for the season, winning 16 games in 20 tries. However, since Sunday, they have lost three in a row, surrendering 20 runs in the process.

They will hand the ball to rookie Brett Anderson (11-10, 4.12), trying to salvage one game in the series. The 21-year-old left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four outings, which included a victory over Seattle at home on Sept.5.

Because of how well Anderson is pitching, Bookmaker.com has established Oakland as -120 money line favorites, with the total Ov7.5. That sounds right as long as Anderson can pitch, but what about if the A’s overworked and unproductive bullpen is called upon? That is where today’s Top System comes into action.

Play On home teams when the money line is +125 to -125, with a well rested bullpen, who has thrown two innings or less in each of the last three games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings.

Over the last dozen years, this system has delivered exceptional results at 31-8, 79.5 percent. With Seattle 14-5 after allowing one run or less (7-0 shutout last night) in a win over a division rival and the Athletics 5-18 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons, the Mariners could be a nice underdog play with a chance to go 8-1 at home versus Oakland this season.

Today, review these American League Totals

It’s a lighter card in the junior circuit and it’s as good a time as any to look some different wagering possibilities. Most knowledgeable baseball sports bettors prefer to play totals since they believe they are easier to beat and less risk is involved paying the juice. Here is a look at each American League contest reviewing the best ways to consider on the totals front.

Texas at New York

This will be the only afternoon affair in the AL, as these two playoff contenders wrap up three-game series. They have split the first two games and have played Over on both occasions. The Yankees are 29-29-3 against the oddsmakers total number at home and are 9-1 Over at home vs. an AL starting pitcher like Dustin Nippert (4-2, 3.95, 1.457 WHIP as starter), whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last two seasons. Texas has been a decided Under team on the road with 36-22-2 record and they are 16-2 Under after a loss by four runs or more this season. Bookmaker.com has this contest at Ov9.5 and home plate umpire Jim Reynolds has called 14 of 21 games Over this season.

Cleveland at Baltimore

The Indians travel to Baltimore to open a four-game series and they are 19-7 Over in road games after a win this season. The Tribe is a modest underdog and they are 33-12 Over as a road dog of +100 or higher in 2009, in part thanks to bullpen that has 5.70 ERA in visiting uniforms. The Orioles will face the servings of lefthander Aaron Laffey (7-3, 3.42) and they are 27-17-2 Under vs. port-siders, averaging just four runs per contest. Baltimore is 17-7 Under at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Chicago at Boston

The White Sox have proven to be the cure after Boston lost series to the Yankees this past weekend. The Red Sox have won the first three games of the series and go for the sweep tonight. Chicago’s offense has held them back, scoring 3.75 runs per game in losing six of last eight and they are 7-1 Under during that stretch. Boston on the other hand has totaled nine or more hits in eight of last nine encounters and is 7-2 Over. The Red Sox won a 3-2 squeaker last night and are 10-2 Over at Fenway Park after a win by two runs or less this season. The Pale Hose are 14-3 Under having lost four of their last five games this season. The total on this conflict has risen to 10.

Kansas City at Seattle

Kansas City jets into Seattle to play four times with Kyle Davies (4-9, 6.12) the opening game pitcher for the Royals. The Mariners are off a sweep of Oakland and 11-0 Over vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20, with average score totaling 12.6 runs a game. The total is set at Un8.5, with the rub being the Seattle bullpen, who has pitched lights out. The M’s are 22-7 Under with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games this season. The Royals only average 3.6 runs per game as visitors they are 23-9 Under vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.

Oakland at Los Angeles

The top Over team in baseball is the Angels at 72-47-6. Los Angeles has the top offense in the big leagues at 5.7 RPG and lacks a quality pitching staff to retire batters consistently. The L.A. bullpen has been an issue from the opening game of the season and the Halos are 12-4 Over after two straight games where the bullpen gave up zero runs this season. Oakland has problems scoring runs. The A’s have tallied more than three runs three times in the last 11 games and average only 4.2 RPG on the road. However, Oakland has shaky starting pitching and the bullpen has shown signs of weakening, particularly on the road and they are 10-3 Over after surrendering five or more runs.

The Texas Rangers are what?

One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.

After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game.

The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it, which is about as likely as daytime high of 70 with low humidity in the middle of August in Dallas-Fort Worth area.

With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-39-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-48-3 Under this season.

What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.

In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching (obviously that rings of an oxymoron) and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wusses, throw strikes and have fielders take care of the rest.

Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 35 of 44 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Though it takes getting used, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-19-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-19-2 Under mark as a favorite.

Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.

These Angels make Heavenly Profits

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim quietly moved ahead of more well-known teams like Boston and the New York Yankees, to be the best team in the American League with 63-40 record and would be ahead for the best overall record with their city brethren, the Dodgers, if they had played two more games and won both. The Angels may not have made a lot of noise in climbing to be the best team in the AL, but they have excruciatingly loud with how they swing the bat.

The Angels lead the Major Leagues in hitting with a .290 average. With the high batting average, they are also the No.1 scoring offense at 5.7 runs per game, helped dramatically by hitting .308 with runners in scoring position. Just how good is the Los Angeles offense, start considering these numbers.

Manager Mike Scioscia’s team plays its own version of merry-go-round, with 94 more total hits than the average AL team to this point of the season. The Halos are second in baseball in all important on-base percentage to the Yankees and are third in slugging percentage, despite hitting 40 less home runs than the Bronx Bombers (154 homers) and 45 less than second place Texas (159 homers).

To understand just how good Los Angeles has been playing, consider on June 12, they were 29-29 on the season. Since then, L.A. is 34-11, having picked up +21.65 units of profit in just over seven weeks. Over what is a quarter of the season during this stretch, the Angels are AVERAGING over seven runs per game. That includes not having two of their biggest sluggers, Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup since before the All-Star break when they swept the Yankees at the Big A.

Just this part weekend, L.A. traveled to Minnesota, who was just off a sweep of the Chicago White Sox and feeling pretty spry. All the Angels did was outscore the Twins 35-15, collecting at least 15 hits in each game, becoming just the second American League team since the 1938 Red Sox (Sept. 4-5) to score more than ten runs with at least 15 base hits in each of three straight games. The Cleveland Indians did so in the interim with 15-4, 13-5 and 17-9 victories over the Brewers at County Stadium (Sept. 4-6 1986) according to Elias Sports Bureau.

The Angels remarkable offense plays in the Windy City starting Tuesday against the White Sox. The domination of this newer Big Red Machine shows up in several other key areas. A test of a team’s strength is how they preside over other opponents. Scioscia’s squad leads the major’s in running from first to third and this dizzying pace has them at 27-12 in games decided by four or more runs. They are 14-7 (+14.6) as underdogs and one game behind Philadelphia for the best road record (31-20) in baseball, having won 15 of last 18 as visitors.

Are the Angels than true World Series contenders? Probably not, unless the offense can continue at near the same pace, this is unlikely to occur in the postseason. The Los Angeles pitching staff does not strike fear into opposing hitters with ERA of almost five. John Lackey’s pitching has improved as the season has won on, but he is no longer the hard thrower he was when the Halos won the World Series in 2002. Jered Weaver has started to pitch like a No. 4 starter again, after throwing like an ace early in the season. Joe Saunders is hitting a lot of bats and Ervin Santana is a shell of former self since coming back from injury.

The bullpen has gotten better after carrying ERA of 5.5 or worse into June, but could hardly be described as reliable. The Angels front office acted like a salesperson working without leads in this recession and did nothing to help out current team, despite many working parts in the minor leagues.

That is something to concern with later; right now the Angels are stuffing bankrolls. Parlay wagers on them with the OVER mean serious return on investment, with Los Angeles 61-37-5 OVER (No.1). Totals players can’t believe their great fortune with L.A. on 13-0 OVER run. Since July 1, the Angels and OVER has won on parlays 18 times.

It’s not always fun to follow the crowd and do what everyone else is doing, nevertheless, when money is ripe to be taken, playing these Angels and the total is heavenly.

Texas batters have Rangers up against Rough System

Over the years, the best baseball played in the state of Texas has in been in Austin at the University of Texas, who plays in tonight’s College World Series championship game. The Texas Rangers have long been known for something also, hitting the ball and not winning many games. The Rangers organization has never been able to develop pitchers, thus having everyday hitters has been their best road to what success they have enjoyed.

This season, with a better bullpen and change in pitching philosophy, Texas has spent the vast majority of the time in first place in the American League West by themselves, until know. Having lost five in a row and nine of last 14, the Rangers have been caught by favored Los Angeles. To the casual baseball observer, one would expect another collapse of Texas pitching to be the culprit; however this is not the case at the present time, as the Rangers bats have gone uncommonly quiet.

In their current batting slump, Texas is hitting below .250 as a team, scoring as many as six runs only twice and averaging 2.64 runs per game. Though management is saying they are not concerned per se, there are troubling signs.

“Obviously we’ve hit a speed bump and the players know that,” general manager Jon Daniels told the Rangers’ official Web site. “But I’d much rather talk about an offensive slump than the pitching issues we’ve had to deal with in the past.”

In looking at Lone Star Ball blog, we find a series of Rangers woes when it comes to hitting.
In the American League, Texas has the highest percentage of swings and misses at 20 percent. The Rangers are last in pitches taken for strikes at 24 percent. Texas batters swing at 48 percent of the pitches they see, which is the highest in the AL, with first place Boston taking hacks the fewest amount of times at 41 percent. The Rangers only make contact 74 percent of the time, which is again dead last.

The pitching axiom of throwing first pitch strike is much easier against Texas, since they swing at one-third of these pitches. Consider Tampa Bay is the second most impatient team to swing the bat on the first pitch at 28 percent and doing the math you have a difference of almost 18 percent between first and second positions, which is an enormous gap.

Last night pitcher Max Scherzer of Arizona was able to strikeout seven Texas hitters in six innings, by pitching up the ladder to Rangers hitters. (With each strike pitching higher in the zone) With how undisciplined Texas hitters are right now, six of the seven pitches that resulted in K’s would have been balls with more patience.

There task becomes a lot whole more difficult this evening facing Dan Haren (6-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.822 WHIP). Haren would have much better record be it for more run support and is 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his career in interleague play, including 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last nine outings. Haren has been close to un-hittable in last five starts, with a 3-0 record and silly 1.66 ERA.

This places Texas in a conundrum, going up against a system that reads this way:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP or 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

With Haren posting 96 strikeouts in 101 innings, the free-swinging Rangers might cool off the surroundings of the 100+ degrees heat in downtown Phoenix, providing natural wind flow. This system is 76-13, 85.4 percent since 2004. Haren is 22-7 in June starts (Teams Record) in his career and is 22-8 UNDER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as -175 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Sure the Rangers miss Josh Hamilton’s bat in the lineup, but what they miss more is plate discipline, after leading the AL in contact on percentage of swings in 2008.

Thursday’s Best System Fits Baltimore

The return of interleague play picks up tomorrow; however before then is the matter of finishing off series within each team’s respective league. The Baltimore Orioles have been grounded since putting together a five-game winning streak at the end of May and have lost eight of last 10 games. The O’s could take a step in the right direction of ending this slump by overcoming Seattle and winning a series.

Baltimore’s troubles are easily traced to lack of hitting, as they have gotten as many as four runs only once in last 10 tries. The Orioles (25-34, -7.2 units) slump has seen them fall to ninth in batting average in the American League and 10th in runs scored. Today they will match up with a former teammate, now pitching for Seattle (29-30, -1.6 units), Garrett Olson.

The 25-year old Olson (0-1, 4.39 ERA) will be returning to Camden Yards for the first time, making his first appearance in another uniform. The left-hander gives up a lot of groundballs, which could be construed as bad luck, but most are hit with velocity and are quasi-line drives, just with a couple of bounces. Though the Orioles are far from pitching-rich, the biggest reason Olson was traded is he never developed an “out-pitch” to keep opposing batters off-balance and finish them off. This will be his fourth start and he has also come out of the bullpen six times this season, as the Mariners seek to find a role for Olson.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as a -156 money line favorite, with total of nine. A super situation arises this evening favoring the Birds and it reads this way:

PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -125 to -175, who are below average American League hitting team (BA .265 or less), against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.70 to 5.70, playing on a Thursday.

What this 84.1 percent system is telling us is if a team is below the norm as hitters, yet can still be this heavy a favorite, they must be in a very good situation. The record of 37-7 dates back to 1997 and in the last five years, this system has clicked off 10 of 11 winners, with average margin of victory 2.6 runs.

It is true, the Orioles are impatient lot, nevertheless, the Mariners are 13-30 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three or less walks a game. After completing your afternoon wagers, the O’s might be worth a look in night action.

Bullpen matters to baseball bettors

Maybe it’s the SportsCenter syndrome, or too many highlights on Baseball Tonight, but it sure seems like their have been more blown saves this season then in the past. Talked to a number of people, from normal every day fans to serious baseball bettors and the answer was the same, they agreed, more blown saves in 2009 then in the past. This piqued my curiosity and had to find the correct answer. As it turns out, they are up slightly, however not as much as I and others believed.

This year, save conversions are running about 65 percent, which is actually up from last season’s total of 64 percent. From 2002 to 2007 the range was 66 to 68 percent. This is not earth-shattering news. Over the past seven seasons, the average number of save opportunities per team is just over 63 per year. The difference between the best and worst years is two blown saves per season, which does not automatically mean a team loses the game, as they often come back and win, like the Los Angeles Angels did Thursday afternoon in Toronto.

Where it matters to baseball bettors is the best and worst teams in the big leagues. The top five teams in saves are as follows. (Thru June 3, rounding up numbers)

1) Cincinnati - 93 percent
2) Texas – 85 percent
3) Boston – 83 percent
4) N.Y. Mets – 73 percent
5) Philadelphia – 73 percent

This group is not necessarily the best teams in baseball; nonetheless they have unique quality every one laying down money wants to see. Collectively, these teams are +29.8 units. When handicapping games, why this is important is if any of these teams have a favorable to somewhat favorable pitching matchup and they can enter the later innings with a lead, chances are they will close the deal with set-up man and closer.

Value is also to be found on the bottom end of the spectrum, playing against teams that have lamentable bullpens. In this case, if the starting pitching matchup is close to dead even and the teams are fairly equal in hitting numbers, the club with relief pitchers that struggle to hold opponents at bay, are intriguing plays. With these types of teams, a one or two run lead means it is slightly better then 50-50 they will hold the advantage and deliver a winning wager. Here is current bottom five teams in save percentage.

30) Washington - 38 percent
29) Houston – 52 percent
28) Toronto 53 percent
27) Cleveland 55 percent
26) Florida 55 percent

This grouping has lost 35.1 units in combining to blow 52 saves already this year. Though the Blue Jays are actually in the black for units won, they have given up leads, only to rebound and come back to win in last at bats.

While saving games is important, it helps to have depth and quality hurlers who have a great deal to offer. For example, the starting pitcher is cuffed around for five runs in four innings and is pulled. The particular team trails 5-1, but because of the long reliever and his cohorts shut down the opposition, sometimes they end up scoring enough runs and can sneak away with a victory, because the pen held the fort.

There are two units of measurement to identify the entire bullpen, earned run average and WHIP. (For those who forgot about how WHIP is formulated- Divide the number of hits and walks by the number of innings pitched)

The ERA is a fairly accurate method of looking at a bullpen, from a broader perspective. Generally speaking, most good teams will have lower ERA’s and most bad teams will have high ERA’s. Among the weakness of this statistic, it does not take into consideration the affects of ball parks (pitcher’s parks vs hitter’s parks). If a reliever allows the tying or winning run to score, the previous pitcher is held accountable, not the hurler that gave up the hit, which is why the stat “holds” was invented.

Here is the top and bottom teams in each league by ERA’s for bullpens.

National League
1) N.Y. Mets
2) Milwaukee
3) Cincinnati
4) St. Louis
5) L.A. Dodgers

12) Houston
13) Chic. Cubs
14) Arizona
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Boston
2) Chic. White Sox
3) Seattle
4) Tampa Bay
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) N.Y. Yankees
12) Cleveland
13) Baltimore
14) L.A. Angels

Nearly all the National League teams are in relative harmony with the teams’ records; this is not the case in the American League. Four of the top five teams in ERA bullpens in the junior circuit are average to mediocre clubs. Possibly the reasons for this is starting pitching is sordid or the offensive doesn’t generate enough runs, even if the pen does its job. In the bottom assemblage is first place teams the Yankees and Rangers. Both clubs have suffered blowouts that inflated numbers and play in what is today pitcher’s parks. While the jury is still out how good these bullpens will ultimately be, they have been masked in sorts by high scoring offenses.

This is where the WHIP comes into play to tie up the loose ends. The WHIP counts from first pitch by any reliever. Give up a hit or walk, it matters and here we can start to understand why certain ERA’s differ from the WHIP. The Yankees WHIP is 6th in the AL, more in line with how they are playing. The White Sox, they fall to 7th when using this as measuring stick, suggesting they are not quite as effective and the offense is lagging. The most notable differential is the Mariners, who have the 3rd best ERA, yet are next to last in WHIP in the AL. This shows their pitchers create problems for themselves. For the most part the Seattle relievers have avoided major disasters; however, over the course of 162-game season, chances are this will catch up with any team.

Here is how the WHIP’s shake out in each league.

National League
1) Milwaukee
2) St. Louis
3) Philadelphia
4) N.Y. Mets
5) Cincinnati

12) Chic. Cubs
13) Arizona
14) Pittsburgh
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Toronto
2) Boston
3) Tampa Bay
4) Minnesota
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) Baltimore
12) Kansas City
13) Seattle

14) L.A. Angels

Knowing what are the best and worst bullpens, from a complete perspective, will add real dollars to wagering account over the course of a long season.

Rangers in bad betting spot

Life has been pretty darn good for manager Ron Washington’s club in 2009. The Los Angeles Angels were everyone’s selection to runaway with the AL West crown, but Texas (30-21, +10.1 units) will have something to say about who is crowned champion this year. They rank fifth in runs scored in baseball and for the most part, their pitching has been decent enough to be in the middle of the road in runs allowed. Texas does have demons and in this battle of two first place teams in the American League, the Rangers are being lassoed by better team.

Texas has frequently had issues with the New York Yankees, dating back to 1998-99, when they lost consecutive postseason series to them. This year, the Bronx Bombers have won three of four and the losses by the Rangers have not been close. Texas has lost by 10, 7 and 9 runs, with the last figure coming last night. After Vincente Padilla was slapped around for seven runs in less than four innings of work, the bullpen came in and made matters worse with New York adding five more runs the rest of the way.

In contrast, two New York relievers pitched two innings and allowed no runs. Though the Yankees bullpen still have troublesome ERA of 5.03, this is far better than the one that was well over six before they helped contribute to skipper Joe Girardi’s club winning 16 of last 20.

New York (31-21, +1.5) is 21-3 in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games and Andy Pettitte (5-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) will try to continue to ease the strain on pen. The veteran left-hander has won last three decisions and the team has won the last five times Pettitte was the starter. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Yankees as -170 money line favorites with the total Ov10.5 and they will face a good pitcher in Scott Feldman (4-0, 3.91, 1.180), who is 4-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts after being used out of the bullpen for the first two weeks of the season.

Unfortunately for Feldman and Texas, the odds may be stacked against them with this super situation.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games.

The logic here is if a team is this large an underdog, they will likely have to go back to the bullpen again, which was just roughed up. Contrast that with the favorite, who has received a number of fine performances of late and we come across a system that delivers winners at the rate of 84.1 percent since 2004 at 58-11.

While there is no truth to the rumor General Motors, in an effort to conserve money wanted to use the new Yankee Stadium for wind-tunnel testing, at least one home run has been hit in all 24 games played there. Most have been hit to right field, but with the lefty Pettitte on the mound, that should curtail unsightly element.

The average margin of victory has been 2.5 runs and this system has been on turbo-charge, winning 30 of last 33. With New York 12-2 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season, this might be the right spot to go against the Rangers.

Interleague MLB Play- It’s one-sided

Read a great article this week by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, talking about 70-75 percent of all baseball players dislike interleague play. Among the reasons given are unfamiliarity of players, meaningless matchups (the Pittsburgh vs Washington series was a classic this week), dealing with the DH and unfair schedule for teams within same division. Excuse me while I wipe away the tears for these blockheads. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers whining about having to the play the toughest schedule before last season, how did that work out?

While we all share their pain, enough of us like it. Attendance typically runs ahead of the norm for these games (10 percent last season), suggesting we like the rivalry games and are curious enough to go to the park to see in person players and teams we would not ordinarily be able to. Taking it further, according to Stark’s article, if you subtracted rivalry matchups in each of the last three seasons, interleague attendance was still 7.5 percent higher last year, 4.1 percent bigger in 2007 and 6.0 percent larger in 2006.

For sports bettors, interleague play has created a great deal of opportunity if you follow the K.I.S.S. method. The American League has been the dominant force for better than a decade and not many signs point to change.

To blindly play every American League team since 2003, you would have a 709-565 record (55.7 percent) and netted +94.7 units or about +19 units per year, just betting interleague games. That’s rather eye-opening.

Oddsmakers are doing their best to curtail the situation, by adding margin into AL teams to make them less attractive, however if the National League clubs can’t win, no number is going to chase off enough action to make a big enough difference to those accepting wagers.

It is nothing short of amazing to review the numbers see in the last two years only the New York Mets (17-13, +2.4 units) and Chicago Cubs (14-13, -0.9) have winning records versus the junior circuit. With 14 NL teams having .500 or below records, this equates to 222-291 record, 43.3 percent. In just two years, betting the 16 NL clubs would have cost -57.45 units, meaning you had roughly 2,336 other games to wager on to get your money back for this folly.

Only the St. Louis Cardinals have winning record at 43-38 (+3) the last five years against the AL, showing how wide the differential is between the two leagues in head to head competition.

For the most part, the oddsmakers like those at DiammondSportsbook.com have been in tune with the total, with only a handful of teams sticking out. Over the last couple of years, Atlanta (11-18), San Francisco (11-19) and the Dodgers (11-19) have managed to play UNDER, while Florida (20-10) and Baltimore (21-13) have gone the other direction and been OVER the number.

The Braves have been more consistent in the totals direction over a longer period of time, with 44-32 UNDER mark since 2003. The Cleveland Indians have kept pace with the Bravos in this category with 51-38 UNDER record in the same time frame.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Arizona at 43-33 OVER and the Kansas City Royals at even better 51-37 OVER the last five seasons.

The run line shows potential for interleague play, more so then regular league encounters. In the last two years, games decided by two or more runs were 62 of 83 played the opening weekend of interleague action, which is 74.6 percent. Though the number is small compared to all games played, it does show a trend towards games that are not as close, since normally one run games make up about 28-31 percent on any given year.

Over the last several seasons, a number of teams have shown potential as drawing worthy consideration for the run line; here is what teams matched up.

Boston won by 1.6 runs per game - L5Y
Detroit won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Kansas City won by 1.4 RPG - L2Y
L.A. Angels won by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
L.A. Dodgers lost by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
Minnesota won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Twins won by 1.6 RPG – L5Y
Pittsburgh lost by 2.1 RPG – L5Y
San Francisco lost by 1.5 RPG – L2Y

This should provide good information heading into holiday weekend for profitable interleague action. To see a complete breakdown of every MLB team in interleague play the last decade, click here. Good Luck.