Jets at Colts Preview

Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but he’s able to rally the troops with the familiar “us against the world” refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.

It’s the clichéd “respect card” that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryan’s conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.

The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Auto’s Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.

New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryan’s belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.

The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however don’t for second think they haven’t been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York can’t make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as eight-point favorites with total of 40 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, he’s arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.

Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy won’t make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.

The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.

Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New York’s defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indy’s offense.

This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)

Jets at Chargers Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don’t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn’t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn’t look to stop a portion of a team’s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who’s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don’t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it’s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there’s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn’t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York’s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.

Jets vs. Bengals Betting Matchup

All the NFL analysts on television and radio keep saying the same thing don’t read too much into the New York Jets clocking Cincinnati 37-0 last week. The Jets had to win and the Bengals had nothing to play for blah, blah, blah. In theory that makes sense, but is losing by such a horrific score ever a good thing, especially when you have to play the same team again the next week?

The motivation angle works that Cincinnati will be more fired up after being throttled and will be back on home field before adoring fans and bring full playbook as opposed to Cliff Notes version they used last week.

There are a number of troubling signs for Bengals fans despite the dismissal. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games and has covered the spread just one time. They have scored more than 20 points just twice since November and one of those was 23 against Detroit, not exactly newsworthy. Say what you will about playing possum, but after allowing 257 yards on the ground to the Jets, Cincy is 4-15 ATS after surrendering 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Cincinnati has lost four defensive starters since the Week 3 of the season and they plainly are not as good as they were earlier in the year. Carson Palmer has really only played one outstanding game the second half of the season, when he threw for 293 net yards at San Diego. Granted the focus has been running the ball more, nonetheless the loss of Chris Henry as a player has impacted the passing game tremendously.

The Jets defense ranked No.1 in total defense and Darrelle Revis had a special year at corner. He certainly has the ability to take away the Bengals top receiver, Chad Ochocinco. As Coach Rex Ryan pointed out, New York at least in theory is built for the playoffs. They feature a strong defense with top-rated running game at 172.2 yards per game, led by Thomas Jones and are 12-2 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards.

Coach Ryan made no specific reference to quarterback Mark Sanchez and for good reason, since he is realistically their top liability coming into the game. Undoubtedly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will do everything he can to protect his rookie signal, but will have to deal with Cincinnati’s run blitzes on early downs after going totally vanilla a week ago.

Sanchez will be forced to complete slant passes or quick outs against solid Bengals corners Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The Jets traded for Braylon Edwards during the season and it is his time to be a difference-maker. The Flyboys are 6-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning home records.

The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long, unless the running game clicks and Palmer starts completing some passes. Expect Cincinnati to run crossing routes to either free up Ochocinco or create space for other pass-catchers to be a factor. The Bengals offensive line has to bring it and create lanes for Cedric Benson.

Bookmaker.com has Cincinnati favored by 2.5-points with total of 33.5. The Cats are 0-7 ATS as favorites this season and 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game the last three years. New York is hardly a picture of prosperity with 2-10 ATS record after two straight wins by 10 or more points; however are 8-3 ATS as road dogs catching three or fewer points.

The home team has covered the last four meetings and Cincy is 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite.

Young Studs key in AFC East Battle

For the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, four games into the season look a little different than most anticipated. As they prepare for a division game on Monday, how these are where they are and the outcome of the game is not lost on the teams and fans alike.

New York (3-1 SU&ATS) drafted Mark Sanchez and believed he could help them right away, however very few outside the Jets locked room thought their first round pick would play this well this soon.

Yes, Sanchez did have a few rookie moments in loss to New Orleans last week, but that is to be expected and he has embraced his position in the Big Apple and has been an important cog in the wheel to New York’s fast start. The next step in Sanchez’s career development is how he bounces back from adversity, especially on the road, where the Jets are 6-0 ATS at Miami.

Coach Rex Ryan’s pressure tactics are paying dividends, with is club fourth in total defense at 277.7 yards per game and third in points allowed at 14.2. It’s of significance, Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding 285 or less yards per game.

The Dolphins (1-3 SU &ATS) off last year’s complete turnaround that produced an AFC East title, expected to keep moving in the same direction. However, three straight losses to start the season were more shocking than recent pictures of Kevin Federline. Though the Dolphins run for 183.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL) they still lack explosion on offense. Part of it is how they’ve been built with Chad Pennington as the quarterback, using the running game and controlled passing. That is out the window with the former Jets QB on the shelf again, and a stronger armed Chad Henne takes over, with less actual playing experience than his counterpart Sanchez.

All division games take on added importance and this one just became more so for both teams with New England being upset at Denver Sunday. A win gives the Jets back the lead in the AFC East and a Miami victory makes it two in a row and places them just one game behind the Pats and Flyboys.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York favored by 2.5 with total of 36. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in October off a SU and ATS loss and in revenge spot against opponent (Lost to Miami 24-17 in last meeting). The Jets are 17-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards. The Dolphins are 19-6 UNDER after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and could be in favorable situation with underdogs 8-1 ATS in Miami’s last nine pre-bye week games.

New York covers if they contain Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense. Coach Ryan has faced the Wildcat in the playoffs with Baltimore last year and attacked Brown up the middle and outside defenders stayed home to contain Brown. With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard, the Jets secondary should be able to handle ordinary Fins pass-catchers and stuff the box with run stoppers and blitz Henne like he’s seeing a green and white squadron. On offense, building an early lead is important, since that means Sanchez doesn’t have to do as much and run play action to attack Miami safeties that are much better against the run than the pass.

Miami covers if they control the line of scrimmage and maintain possession of the pigskin. Sanchez is a good rookie quarterback, but he’s not Peyton Manning. They Jets have given up 280 yards total on the ground the last two weeks, primarily outside the A and B gaps. Brown and Ricky Williams should test them. Henne has the arm to at least stretch the field beyond 10 yards, which could mean crossing patterns for solid route runners like Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to move the chains and get the secondary away from the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are second against the rush (61 YPG), which could force the New York to throw more than they prefer. Chances are Braylon Edwards will not be as much a factor this early.

Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road last week against a team that covered at home at the same time. (18-6 ATS)

Let's keep the Winners coming on Monday

The winning continues despite a sorry system play which was about as close as those saying President Obama wasn’t American. We’ll try and do best with fabulous system that is 12-0 this year alone. The Top Trend is reverse perfect at 0-12 in the American League and Sal is officially white hot and goes for fifth in a row here. Good Luck

What I learned today – Mark Sanchez became the first rookie in nearly 60 years to score a touchdown and throw a TD pass in the first quarter of the same game. The last rookie to do that was Adrian Burk of the Baltimore Colts in 1950. Among the others to have done so was a pair of rookies in 1921 better known for their respective success as an NFL coach and an Olympian: Curly Lambeau and Jim Thorpe. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is 60-4, 93.7 percent in the last five years and is 12-0 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal's best play is on Tampa Bay today and for those who want to know what he likes on Monday, he made a small wager on the Over (MNF play won't count).

Guaranteed NFL Pick with Paul Buck’s Monday Magic.

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

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Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

Betting Options for NFL Draft

For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head. For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.

The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Matthew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.

If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. Here are several props I found online.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (-350) - Under 2.5 (+225)

The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (+120) - Under 2.5 ( -160)

Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 6 (-170) - Under 6 (+130)

This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)

Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.

What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.

What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?
Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)

In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.

What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?
Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)

I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?

What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)

This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.

What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?
Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)

Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.

What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?
Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)

New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.

What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150
Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200

Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don't be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?
James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175
Clay Matthews (USC) -250

At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)

In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.

Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)

The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.

Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.

Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.

Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)

This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Davis has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.

Patrick White (West Virginia) - Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)
Yes (-150) – No (+110)

Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.