Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Bears by the Bay for NFL Thursday Night

It’s the first of six consecutive games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be fair (as in OK) matchups, with the league not trying to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. Of course the NFL bosses will throw around money to prevent sports bettors from having legalized gambling, thus what they are really doing is providing one game on their network for the enjoyment of those that can afford the NFL Network for the enjoyment of all their fans, having absolutely nothing to do with sports wagering. (Wink, wink)

The Setup

The first Thursday night game of the NFL season pits two fringe playoff contenders in the NFC against one another. San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS) is playing at home and as the small favorite, which could prove important, since favorites are 24-6 ATS on Thursday games going back five seasons. It’s also notable since favorites are on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams, each time the host club in the role of the chalk. The 49ers are on a four-game losing skid, but have won five of last seven at home. Chicago (4-4 SU&ATS) is on a 25-11 ATS run on the road in November, but just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, being outscored by 10.5 points per game while turning the ball over 13 times. The Bears are not playing well, having lost three of their last four tries.

Why Watch

Mike Singletary is a legend in Chicago, for his fiery play and intensity (those bulging eyes shots are classic) and ended up the Hall of Fame. Now he faces his old team as the coach.

Though it was before Singletary was head coach, a bit of bad blood exists between these teams’ front offices. In 2006, the Bears brought tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against San Fran, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft.

This contest features two of the better tight ends on the NFC with Vernon Davis and Greg Olson, the latter coming off three touchdown game.

Which quarterback will throw more game-changing interceptions to drive sport bettor insane? Alex Smith has five picks in basically 2.5 games and Jay Cutler has just what you get at Dunkin Donuts, a dozen.

Why Wager

Do you really care about the NBA yet? Yea didn’t think so. The Bears are 6-0 ATS having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 8-16 ATS after allowing 28 or more points.

Some might be of the opinion Chicago is more done than the last of the leaves that were just raked up and the Bears are 1-8 ATS after gaining six or more yards play in their previous game. Besides, the Niners are 5-2-1 ATS after an L.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has 49ers by 3 with total of 43.5.

What Happens

The aforementioned Mr. Briggs steps his play up and tries to compensate for crummy secondary by playing the run like a stud and blitzes QB Smith into mistakes. Defensive lineman Tommie Harris finally decides to play football and not look like the second coming of Alonzo Spellman. The Chicago wide receivers are the worst in the NFL and most have no clue how to run deep routes. Throw short and hope they make a move to use exceptional speed.

Of course for every action there is a reaction and San Francisco would be making a huge mistake not keeping Smith in the shotgun as much as possible. He’s obviously more comfortable in it from his college days and reads the field better. Remember the strength of the offense was supposed to be the line, ask Frank Gore what he thinks about that notion with all his one and two yard gains. Block somebody. Excuse the 49ers secondary if they smile a lot facing the Bears wideouts, put any kind of pressure on Cutler and they are covered like blanket.

The Outcome

3DW selects San Fran to cover

The Cardinals are Big Chalk on Monday Night Football

If the Cardinals don’t find a way to win the NFC West this year, they never will. Since the move from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, the franchise has suffered a losing record in 17 of 20 seasons, but not last year when the Cardinals closed with back-to-back wins to finish 8-8. Sun Devil Stadium didn’t offer much in terms of home-field advantage during the Cardinals’ first 18 years in the desert, but their new state-of-the-art venue in Glendale seems to have changed that parameter for the better with a 9-2 and 8-3 spread record since its opening.

Arizona has done some serious home cooking with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), beating Miami, Buffalo and Dallas so far this season by a combined 102-51.

Bookmaker.com has established the division leading Redbirds as 10-point home favorites (down from opening 11), with a total of 47.5. The Cards are flushed with new-found success and have to take the next step in overcoming the past with 0-7 ATS record as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.

With San Francisco in town on Monday night, the Cardinals will take the University of Phoenix Stadium field for the first time in a month. The last time they were home they made NFL history, beating the Cowboys 30-24 in overtime on a recovered blocked punt in the end zone. Arizona had a bye the following week, lost 27-23 in Carolina in Week 8 and won 34-13 in St. Louis last Sunday.

A postseason berth is the goal for the Cardinals, who had to face only two returning playoff teams over their first nine games. They lead the NFC West by three games over each of their three rivals, none of which seems capable of a turnaround.

The 49ers are 2-6 SU and ATS, and making headlines for all the wrong reasons. San Francisco, which lost 23-13 at home to Arizona in Week 1 thanks to five turnovers, became a league spectacle two weeks ago when interim head coach Mike Singletary sent Vernon Davis to the locker room after the third quarter of a 34-13 loss to Seattle, blasted the third-year tight end in the post-game press conference and apologized to fans. The next day, Singletary benched quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill. The Niners will come into this AFC West encounter only 5-14 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

Hill led the 49ers to a pair of victories late last season and had the benefit of a bye week to help get ready for Arizona, which has allowed 218.2 yards passing per game (18th overall) and 16 touchdowns—most in the NFL. Hill looked relatively sharp in relief of O’Sullivan against the Seahawks and completed 15 of 23 attempts for 173 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. This will be his first career start on the road for a squad that is 6-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.

San Francisco covers if they do what they do best, run the ball. Frank Gore is still their best weapon; make him the top priority is establish a pace to the game, which should help Hill in the short passing game. Hill has shown the ability in his limited action to read and get rid of the ball, something O’Sullivan was getting worse at each week taking so many sacks. Defensively, San Fran needs an identity; pick one, 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Lastly, get Vernon Davis the ball, otherwise he becomes a distraction by not touching the ball as the team and media views it as a rift. The 49ers must control the clock and score. Otherwise they fall to 0-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game since 2006.

Arizona covers if they are focused. Being so far ahead in the division despite having a lack of organizational success for decades, this is the kind of game the Cardinals can prove before a national audience they should be taken seriously. The easiest way to beat a beleaguered opponent is to jump on them early, this should figure into Arizona’s game plan. This should also be a contest the Cards can get back to fundamentals by tackling better, something that been a problem all season. Kurt Warner and company averages 387 yards of offense, if they can do just a little better, they’ll take care of the Niners who are 3-16 ATS in road games when they allow 400 or more total yards.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play against any underdog who has allowed 24 or more points in two straight games. This system is 25-11-1 ATS, 69.4 percent.

NFL Quarterback Carousel

Round and round, up and down.

So goes the beloved amusement park pastime and so goes the quarterback carousel in the National Football League.

The scenario that has played out in 2008 could not have been predicted by anyone and has the signs of becoming even more complex. This is about as crazy of a game of musical quarterbacks as I've seen in my brief sportslife.

Through nine weeks of the season we’ve witnessed 46 different signal callers under center for 32 teams. There have been six permanent quarterback changes due to performance or injury and after this week, only half of the teams will still be playing with the same QB they started the season with.

You might be able to point the blame of this quarterback chaos to Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard. He sparked this uncontrollable downward spiral after rolling into Tom Brady’s knee, effectively ending his year (and my fantasy football season) in the first quarter of Week 1.

And now Matt Cassel, who never started a game in college and was probably a better baseball prospect than football player, is attempting to lead the New England Patriots back to the Super Bowl where perfection narrowly escaped the dynasty a season ago.

The QB changes are many I have to use extreme brevity in this recap because you would grow tired of scrolling through the pages if I delved deep into the intricacies of each alteration.

I'm going to spare elaborating on teams like the Chiefs who have had 16 different quarterbacks (okay, maybe just three) and the Lions who also have a new QB, but still haven’t won a game even with the departure of the evil Matt Millen.

I won't even begin to mention how the Tennessee Titans made the right move by benching youngster Vince Young, whose commitment to football is questionable at this point, and opting for wily veteran Kerry Collins.

Vikings head man Brad Childress must have stolen a play from the Jeff Fisher quarterback school of thought as Minnesota also elected to resurrect a has-been from the brink of extinction in Gus Ferrotte, opposed to enduring another learning season from inexperienced gunslinger Tavaris Jackson.

And who could forget the Brian Griese experiment? He did throw for 407 yards after winging the ball 67 times in a win at Chicago but subsequently lost his starting job two games later to Jeff Garcia.

If I haven’t lost you already, strap into those saddles and stirrups because this ride is about to get rowdy.

The merry-go-round continues with the NFC West, which has experienced complete quarterback disarray. All four teams have encountered some form of QB controversy at one point this season. Trent “I Have A Concussion” Green got a sympathy start from the Rams former head coach Scott Linehan but current coach Jim Haslett has since reverted back to old ways with Marc Bulger at the helm.

The Seahawks went 1-3 with Matt “Bad Back” Hasselbeck to begin the season and are 1-3 without him since. That team has been decimated by injuries all over the field and you can’t expect Seneca Wallace to guide Seattle to a fifth consecutive division title. Hasselbeck is expected to return in Week 11.

How about the laughable San Francisco 49ers? They drop 24 million on a #1 overall pick in Alex Smith who has turned out to be about as good as Ryan Leaf. So they opt to go with offensive coordinator Martz’s man who came to the Bay from Detroit. But that guinea pig failed as J.T. O’Sullivan helped them to a 2-6 record and as soon as Mike Singletary replaced Nolan as the head coach, found himself standing on the sidelines. This week, Shaun Hill is preparing himself to be the most recent 49ers quarterback failure.

I have the perfect remedy for the Niners. They need to put Michael Robinson, former Penn State QB, and Frank Gore in the backfield and run the Wildcat formation every down. You even have Arnaz Battle, who was a thrower back in his days with the Irish, to set up the triple Wildcat backfield! What defense wouldn’t be confused with all the reverses, pitches, handoffs and an occasional toss to Vernon Davis?

The final portion of this NFC West shakedown involves the division leader in a pre-season QB change. Question remains, will Matt Leinhart ever live up to the expectations bestowed upon him?

Ken Wisenhunt surely isn’t sold on him as being the future of his Arizona Cardinals club. He has had three seasons to take the starting job that has essentially been shoved to him on a silver platter. But Arena Football League star turned Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner has claimed the top spot season after season.

And Warner is ready to retire at the drop of a dime. He threw a bad pass to Anquan Boldin who got his jaw shattered and felt bad so he wanted to quit. How bad do you have to be to not snatch the starting job away from a guy who doesn’t even really want to play anymore?

I guess if you have Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith you really don’t have to be that good to win ballgames. And maybe he wasn’t, perhaps we should ask the 2005 National Champion Texas Longhorns.

Speaking of USC Heisman Trophy winners, this should have been the year that Carson Palmer was talked about in the same breath as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. But that may never happen.

Palmer put together a stellar season in 2005 and showed glimpses of greatness, but ever since that knee injury has been nothing but disappointing. Now he needs Tommy John surgery? Isn’t that a surgical procedure for baseball players? Regardless, Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it around in Cincy and that should hint to someone that the team needs a complete overhaul.

So the Houston Texans finally found their man huh? Snatched Matt Schaub away from the Falcons, just before the Vickster gets indicted on dog fighting charges, to replace David Carr. Who I have to say was the beneficiary of a good college team and system…ahem…Alex Smith.

But now Schaub is out 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL and “Pinch of Sage” Rosenfels will get a second opportunity to prove his worth. He suited up against the Colts in Week 5 and nearly had a stranglehold on the starting gig but threw a pick-six and fumbled away two balls to allow Indy to overcome a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.

Our pinkie finger is probably the most expendable appendage we have. But to Tony Romo and the Cowboys it is worth its weight in gold. Seriously though, a pinkie? I pick my nose with my pinkie finger, and that’s about all it is good for. You should be able to throw a football with a bum pinkie.

No matter, the ‘Boys are 1-2 without their savior and his second coming may be too late. They sit at the bottom of the NFC East standings with a 5-4 record and have a brutal schedule left after their bye week, starting with a date in Washington against the ‘Skins.

The most recent changing of the guard happened in our first NFL Network Thursday night matchup. Four-year pro Derek Anderson might have splintered his booty squirming around on the bench having to watch pretty-boy Brady Quinn get the nod after starting 23 straight contests.

Anderson just hadn’t appeared to have been able to put up to the lofty numbers he did a season ago (29 TDs, 3700+ yards), but maybe if Braylon Edwards could catch a pass or Kellen Winslow actually tried to run a route he could have kept his job.

And I’m sure his uneasiness didn’t subside after the kid went 23-35 with 239 yards and a couple of touchies. Well, at least Kellen Winslow was still dropping passes and fumbling balls. That guy needs to take a seat in the corner and put on the dunce hat or he is about to REALLY start pissing some people off.

There looks to be another QB swap on the horizon as well, but most likely a temporary one. We never heard the end of “Rex is our quarterback” from Chicago coach Lovie Smith in 2007. And then Da Bears roll into 2008 with the “Kyle is our quarterback” campaign plastered all over the walls.

This worked out pretty well until Orton went down with a high ankle sprain last weekend. And now we will get to see how disgusting Grossman can look against the mighty Titans defense. He was able to mount a comeback in last week’s game, throwing for a score and running in another, but this test won’t be against the hapless Detroit Lions.

As long as quarterbacks in the NFL keep underachieving and getting injured, we’ll keep pumping tokens into this carousel.


Scott Cooley is a free-lance writer and chimes in from time to time at 3Daily Winners.