Opposites Attract for Monday Baseball Betting

The Detroit Tigers and the Philadelphia Phillies did not get off to the kind of starts they wanted to begin the second half of the season. The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals did just the opposite, racing out of the box. The American and National League teams will face off against each other tonight, each trying to extend or break the habits they began the final stage of the baseball season with.

Tigers offense needs bite

Detroit (48-42, +3.2) will attempt to take a similar path that Texas (53-39, +0.2) just completed and return to winning ways. The Rangers had lost four consecutive home games to last place Baltimore before the break and used that frustration to win a four-game series at Boston over the weekend. The Tigers will try to follow suit, after dropping four straight to cellar-dweller Cleveland.

“Shame on us,” Detroit manager Jim Leyland said. “This club appeared like it wasn’t ready to play this weekend and that’s the manager’s responsibility. That’s not the players. I’m shocked, really.”

The Tigers offense went flat, totaling eight runs against the 12th ranked team in the AL in runs allowed. Sluggers Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera were especially guilty, being five for 29 in the series. Detroit returns home where they are league-best 32-13 (+16.8) and 12-2 after scoring two runs or less two straight games since last year.

Texas was close to sweeping the Red Sox, with their only loss in extra innings Saturday and outscored Boston 21-11 in their four contests. The Rangers arrive in MoTown having won 12 of last 15 road games and will send Scott Feldman (5-8, 5.32 ERA) to the mound, whose been pounded for 14 runs (10 earned), 18 hits over two starts and six innings facing Tigers’ hitters.

Online sports betting outlets have Detroit as -120 money line favorites with total of 9.5 and they are 16-3 at home off a loss to a division rival as a favorite and 8-0 OVER, after scoring three runs or less, three battles in a row. Jeremy Bonderman (5-6, 4.79) takes the ball for the home team and Detroit is 6-1 as a home favorite when he starts.

For this 7:05 Eastern AL affair, Josh Hamilton will try to keep swinging a hot bat and win in Detroit for the first time in a dozen tries.

Redbirds are flying high

St. Louis (51-41, -5.5) was best described as being a mild underachiever in the NL the first half of the season, however they might be ready to take flight and command of the Central Division after drilling the Dodgers four straight and reclaiming first place. The Cardinals offense is scoring runs at a more familiar pace in winning five in a row (5.1 RPG). The last five runs were a confidence builder, touching home plate that many times in the eighth and ninth innings to overcome a 4-0 deficit to Los Angeles for a stirring come from behind triumph.

“The most significant thing is that we’re 10 games over .500,” Tony La Russa said.

The St. Louis starting pitchers and bullpen have been in harmony after their three day vacation and are 59-23 home games after permitting four runs or less five consecutive contests the last 13 years.

This ESPN Monday night matchup has a struggling Philadelphia club (48-43, -9.1) searching for answers. The Phillies lost three of four to the Cubs and realistically should have lost all four in the Windy City except for Carlos Marmol having wild streak that gift wrapped a four-run ninth inning rally Saturday.

“We haven’t hit for a long time,” Phils skipper Charlie Manuel told MLB.com. “We hit spurts where we come out of it. On a given night, we might score some runs, but it seems like we fall right back into it. Inconsistent play. It’s what we talk about every day.”

About the only good news for Philadelphia is 20-8 Monday record and starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick (5-3, 4.44) is 20-7 in a series opener with the help of teammates.

For those following sports betting lines, St. Louis is a -125 ML choice with Blake Hawksworth (3-5, 4.73) the announced hurler. Hawksworth has been forced into the rotation due to injuries, using deception material, relying heavily on the changeup. He’s been continually in trouble as opponents are batting .320 against him this season. He’ll have to be especially careful with St. Louis native Ryan Howard, who is batting .381 with seven homers and 29 RBIs in 17 career games in his home town.

The Cardinals are going after their six straight home win, which they haven’t accomplished since last August and are a mere 4-9 after a one run win in 2010. For whatever reason, the Philadelphia offense perks up with Kendrick on the mound (6.2 RPG) and this combination is 27-13 playing at night.

MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

World Series Game 6 Questions and Answers

Tonight either the New York Yankees win a 27th World Series or are pushed to a deciding Game 7. The beauty of a series is it evolves and takes on a life of its own, which is particularly true in baseball since every game involves two new starting pitchers that alter the dynamics from game to game. For the baseball bettor that means breaking the contest down into components in order to pick the right side or total. Here are Game 6’s most pressing questions.

Can Andy Pettitte pitch effectively on three days’ rest?

This is the leading mystery coming into this confrontation and even Pettitte admits he has no idea how his arm will react. When asked what it’s like to throw on short rest, Pettitte responded, “Man, I don't even remember the last time I went on three days' rest,"

In fact, it was September 30, 2006, when still a member of the Houston Astros. The left-hander is not an excitable type and will likely focus his attention on breaking pitches and off-speed stuff if the fastball isn’t up to typical standards. Pettitte is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 career starts on three days' rest. With more adrenaline pumping in the playoffs, he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on short rest. Sportsbook.com has New York as -200 money line favorites. With Pettitte on the mound, his record is 36-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Manager Joe Girardi better hope this works tonight, otherwise he will be facing the critics before tomorrow’s Game 7 with Burnett and Pettitte both failing in using this pitching strategy.

What’s that cool breeze?

Every year different player’s end up having struggles in the playoffs or World Series and right now two guys are in the heart of each team’s lineup. Mark Teixeira is batting below .200 in the Fall Classic and has been fanned 16 times since postseason action commenced. His body language suggests he’s pressing, swinging harder after each strike. New York could use his normally potent bat to wrap up this series, since he contributed to Yankees 60-23 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Ryan Howard’s timing couldn’t be more off. His swing mechanics are a mess and he’s tied the World Series record for strikeouts with 13, with at least one more game to go. What makes hitting so intriguing is Howard could come up in the first inning and hit a soft liner the other way, just over Derek Jeter’s head and suddenly start sending rockets all around Yankee Stadium. Given Philadelphia is such a large underdog; his big bat could take the Phillies to 12-3 in road games after three or more consecutive home games this season.

How does manager Charley Manuel use Pedro Martinez?

Give Martinez credit, in two playoff starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings, striking out 11 and walking just two. Though the radar gun seldom sees 90 anymore, Pedro still struts around the mound like a peacock, acting like he owns the place. Look for Yankees hitters to be more patient this time and not be as inclined to swing at off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. It would be in Manuel’s best interest to start getting a pitcher ready once Martinez goes thru the batting order once, since he doesn’t have enough heat to keep New York batters honest and not sitting on off-speed tosses.

How cool is it right now to be Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

For both these hitters, they are as ESPN’s Stewart Scott would say, “cool as the other side of the pillow”. They are working pitchers until they make the slightest mistake and rocketing shots like they are seeing batting practice speed beach balls. Each is capable of winning a game single-handily with the way they are swinging. Will Utley raise the Phillies playoff record to 21-8 the last two years and force a Game 7 or does A-Rod drop an “A-Bomb” (Yankees radio announcer John Sterling call) and New York is champion yet again and finishes the year 39-11 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

What was learned from Game 5 that could determine winner for tonight?

The most important factor for the sports bettor is the OVER could well hit a fourth straight game. The first two contests of the World Series saw rested starting pitchers going deep in games, for a pair of Under’s. Since then, the two most power-laden team in the big leagues have hit homers in smallish parks against relief pitchers who have resembled an interleague matchup of the Orioles and Nationals.

If you take Mariano Rivera out of the equation, if either team trails buy almost any margin, they have to feel they can comeback against two bullpens short on getting outs quickly.

Dodgers and Phillies NLCS Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers were dismissed in five games by the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies last October and believe they have advantages 12 months later in their favor. Though the Dodgers lack a true No.1 ace, manager Joe Torre is confident he can matchup with the Phillies better by mixing and matching to situations and still have added depth to turn to a pitcher that was a starter during the regular season if his chosen starter struggles early.

In last year’s NLCS, Los Angeles started five right-hand pitchers. Expect to see lefties Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf in the first four games as starting pitchers to hopefully combat Philly sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Torre is still contemplating who the other starters will be, but rest assured he will put Los Angeles in the best position to win the series based on his history.

On offense, a year’s experience should be invaluable to L.A. Last year they were loose in sweeping the Cubs, but everyone but Manny Ramirez puckered up once the next round came about. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are the two most likely keys for the Dodgers offense; however the bottom of the order can also play an important role and Torre likes the experience from players like Casey Blake to deliver.

This is the Dodgers eight NLCS and first back to back in 31 years. Ironically, exactly half of their appearances in this round of the postseason have been against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are looking to make a historical statement with visions of becoming the first NL team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia in fact is the first National League team to make consecutive appearances in the NLCS since Atlanta in 1995-96. It’s hard to fathom the Phillies will shutdown like St. Louis did against the Dodgers in the first round, since they led the league in home runs, scoring and most extra bases hits. The quartet of Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Howard and Utley were the first group of Phillies to hit 30 or more home runs in a season.

Look for Cole Hamels to be Game 1 starter. Though the lefty has not been nearly as effective as last season, he’s rested and loves pitching at Dodger Stadium. In three starts in L.A., Hamels has pitched 23 innings, allowing three runs on 15 hits, striking out 17 and walking just five batters. In his career he is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA facing Los Angeles hitters.

Expect manager Charley Manuel to save Cliff Lee for Game 3 at home, which gives him ample rest and also makes him available for Game 7 on normal rest if needed. Manual will piece together the rest of rotation and expect Chan Ho Park to be added to the bullpen.

Based on the body of work, the Dodgers have distinct edge in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill have been lights out for opposing teams for six weeks. Though Brad Lidge picked up two saves in the NLDS, it was out of necessity, not desire. The skipper Manuel had used up all other options in both situations and played the percentages in utilizing Lidge and escaped both times. Has last season’s most dominant closer regained enough confidence to be called upon again, only Manuel knows with fingers crossed inside his pockets.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th Philadelphia 1st
Walks Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 9th
Walks Dodgers 8th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Errors Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 2nd


Key Numbers- The Dodgers won the season series 4-3 and are 9-5 at home against the Phillies and 4-8 in the City of Brotherly Love the last three years. Los Angeles is among the best teams in baseball at home with 52-31 record and is 71-47 against RH starters. Torre’s club was only average in games decided by three or less runs with 59-51 record. Though playing in a weak division, the Dodgers are 20-6 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road record during the regular season at 48-33 and picked up two more wins in Colorado. Conventional wisdom has the Phillies being stymied against left-hand pitching; however a deep and versatile lineup is 29-16 against port-siders. The Phils have been much better in closer contests with 56-41 record with games decided by three or less runs.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Dodgers -120, Phillies Even

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena