Happy New Year

To start football for 2010, the compelling game of the three is probably the least interesting in football terms. Today marks the end of the line for Bobby Bowden’s historic coaching career. He was as gracious in defeat as he was in victory and the game of college football takes a hit for losing such a great man. The best early game is LSU and Penn State in the Holiday Bowl with two schools synonymous with winning. The Big Ten Conference opened strong in the bowl season with Wisconsin victory; can Northwestern build on the momentum with their first postseason triumph in 62 years?


Outback Bowl
Auburn vs. Northwestern
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa
11:00E ESPN

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948, to break that trend it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the New Year’s Day conflicts. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997and are underdogs to Auburn (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) team, which won just two of its last seven games in 2009. Interestingly, the Outback underdog has covered the number the last five times the pointspread exceeded four points. Auburn offers a new approach as offensive team these days; however is 5-9 ATS as bowl chalk. The Tigers were 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. other bowlers. Northwestern (5-6 ATS) won last three games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.

Reasons to wager – Don’t right off Northwestern in this New Year’s opener. QB Mike Kafka is an all-purpose performer and the Wildcats are well-suited for this role since they are 10-3 ATS as underdogs recently, with eight outright upsets. While Auburn’s offense saw dramatic improvement this season, the defense went backwards, allowing a SEC-high 26.9 points per game. Though the players change, coach Gene Chizik should remind his team, Northwestern has given 43.8 points a bowl in last six tries. The Tigers will look to establish runners Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb. If they do, this opens up passing lanes for Chris Todd who threw 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Auburn defense has to turnover the Wildcats since they are 2-9 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons. Sportsbook.com has Northwestern catching eight points with total of 54 and the Wildcats are 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by 3.2 point per game.

3DW Line – Auburn by 7

Capitol One Bowl
LSU vs. Penn State
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
1:00E ABC

Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of the losses happened in Orlando. The Nittany Lions yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3 and 5-6-1 ATS, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in L5 matchups.

Reasons to wager- Both of these teams are perfectly placed in Orlando, since neither could beat the superior teams in their conference and their best wins are ordinary to say the least. Penn State emerges as winner if they stop a pedestrian LSU offensive line. It appears they should, however the only comparable opponents Penn State faced were Iowa and Oho State and they shoved the ball down the Nittany Lions throat for a combined 391 rushing yards. Penn State is a mere 6-17 ATS away from Mt. Nittany vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game. LSU has lacked any sort of offensive consistency all year and doesn’t figure to find it against a solid Penn State defense. What the Tigers have to do is stop Lions offense and win field position battle and stick with the running game. Jordan Jefferson can hit six passes in a row and miss next six, get him in comfortable locations on the field for success. LSU is 12-1 ATS away from home after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville
1:00E CBS

This will be Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sidelines for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. With Florida State sporting a 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, they shouldn’t be playing New Year’s Day, but TV ratings matter. Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. West Virginia (5-6 ATS) is 9-3 and has won four straight bowl games, with last loss coming to same opponent in this very game in 2005. The ACC is 7-2 ATS the previous nine encounters.

Reasons to wager- Not sure if there are exceptional reasons to tune in and place money on this Gator Bowl. Florida State’s flaws were spotted early, allowing almost 400 passing yards to Miami and having to come from behind in the fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State. Finishing second in too many recruiting battles, shows the Seminoles record is well-deserved. On offense, E.J. Manuel has stepped in for injured Christian Ponder, with mixed results. Like most freshmen quarterbacks, he was poised when he had time, but got in a hurry when pressured and was less selective in the red zone. The Noles are 29-11 ATS after two or more consecutive spread. Betting on old smiley face from West Virginia can be hazardous to one’s health and wagering account. West Virginia is 2.5-point favorite with total of 60 and coach Bill Stewart is 6-13 ATS as the favorite wearing the lead head set. The Mountaineers win this game with ease if QB Jarrett Brown returns to his pre-concussion form from October. West Virginia has too many speedy players to account for and if Brown is close to 100 percent clarity with this much time off, no reason they don’t knock off Florida State, except for the Stewart factor.

3DW Line – West Virginia by 4

Bettors might TiVo this ACC contest

The two biggest disappoints in the ACC this season have been Florida State (2-4, 1-5 ATS) and North Carolina (4-2, 2-3 ATS). Both team were improved last season with many positive signs and were expected to compete for the right to play in ACC championship game in 2009. Instead, ESPN has one of its worst dud games on a Thursday night it has had in years. Each of the Atlantic Coast Conference teams currently resides in the basement of their respective teams, talk about a need for flex scheduling!

Florida State’s bizarre season continues to become stranger as it goes along. The season started with the cloud over coach Bobby Bowden, being stripped of wins in his pursuit of Joe Paterno as the winningest coach in D-1 or FBS history. The exciting 38-34 loss to Miami in the opener was harbinger of defensive issues not wholly recognizable at the time.

A fourth quarter come from behind 19-9 win against FCS Jacksonville State was masked with impressive 54-28 win over then previously unbeaten BYU. That is where the rubber met the road. The Seminoles have not won since, losing three times and the defense has been scorched for 30.5 points per game in their four trips to the gridiron.

Several people are calling for Bobby Bowden to step down while others are saying leave him alone and let him decide when the time is right. What is another peculiar aspect in Florida State’s season are Bowden’s comments leading up this contest.

“I’m disappointed with the losses and yet we’ve done some good things. We’ve done something this year that we haven’t done before,” Bowden said. “Our offense against BYU took the ball and scored the first seven times they got the ball. Then against Georgia Tech, we took the ball and scored the first five times we got the ball.

“But defensively, we’ve had a hard time stopping the big play. We’ll go out there and stop a team, and stop a team, and stop a team and then whoop. So if they ever get that squared away we’ll be a pretty good ballclub.

“Another thing is, nobody’s crushed us. We haven’t been blown out. We’ve been right down to the wire with everybody, which maybe with one play less for them or one play more for us, we could be up at the top.”

Coach Bowden putting positive spin on losing season, what is next Glenn Beck and Keith Olberman become dining partners? At least the Noles are 27-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread.

North Carolina has been done in by anemic offense. The Tar Heels rank No. 101 in rushing, No. 103 in passing, which ends up totaling 282.2 yards per game, 117th in total offense. Take away the wins against FCS Georgia Southern and The Citadel and North Carolina is the worst offensive team in the country. Subtract those two games and the Tar Heels are averaging 59.7 yards per game on the ground.

With no running game and QB T.J. Yates being rushed continually when dropping back to pass, and never in sync with receivers, the offense has scored 12 or fewer points three times on the year. UNC also averages almost three turnovers a game and is 12-26 ATS at home after playing a non-conference tilt.

Despite no offensive support, the Tar Heels stop troops rank third in the country in total defense at 237.7 yards per game. The numbers are somewhat misleading based on competition; however they would still be in the Top 20 defensively if just the four FBS teams were counted.

Bookmaker.com has North Carolina as 2.5-point favorites with total of 48 in the first ever Thursday-night televised home game for the Tar Heels in school history. The Heels are 6-2 with 3-5 ATS in last eight weekday games. They are 1-14-1 against Florida State, with 8-8 ATS mark and 7-0 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.

If the Seminoles defense can’t get healthy against this offense, there is no hope for the season. Florida State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog since 2005 (includes bowls), yet 4-13 ATS in road games against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers a game.

The Worldwide Leader has this ACC clash at 7:45 Eastern and will undoubtedly make reference to Florida State having never lost four in a row with Bobby Bowden patrolling the sidelines. Including Labor Day loss, the Noles are 0-5 ATS on weekdays.

Florida Fued Favors Tasty Underdog

This bitter Florida rivalry had gotten duller than Rachel Ray’s Food Network show “$40 a Day”, as both former national behemoths became medial teams. However, Miami and Florida State are headed back towards greater respectability and will play again on Labor Day, after two thrilling matchups the last couple of years.

Miami is 4-1 ATS at Tallahassee and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball to work with 16 returning starters. The Hurricanes will feature pro-style attack, with sophomore Jacory Harris running the show as solo, with Robert Marve a transfer. Graig Cooper leads a rushing attack that should be improved, with a greater commitment after averaging only 129 yards per game a season ago. This key area for Miami since they are 22-8 ATS in road games when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.

Defensively, a number of real solid players are available, though not the typical All-American studs normally seen on the Coral Gables campus. The Hurricanes were last in run defense in the ACC a year ago and defensive packs managed only two interceptions. Linebacker is the best position at the “U”, with Sean Spence the ringleader.

Most of the off-season talk on the Florida State campus has centered on legendary Bobby Bowden losing 14 wins in 2006-07 for rules infractions. As Florida State continues the fight to reinstate those victories, Bowden will work on something he can control, this year’s team.

The Seminoles regained their strength up front on offense, averaging 177 yards rushing per game in 2008. All five starters from that contingent are back and will be leaned on heavily, while new receivers are discovered for sophomore signal caller Christian Ponder. Last season, Ponder played like a talented freshman, showing glimpses of good and bad, he’ll be expected to improve if Florida State expects to be ACC Atlantic champs. On defense, coordinator Mickey Andrews, in his 26th season, will have work to do with just five starters back. How quickly Andrews can make this cohesive unit will set the tone.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites with a total of 47. Florida State is only 12-19 ATS a ACC home favorite since 2001 and will be playing in Doak Campbell Stadium at well below capacity. The Canes are 6-3 ATS as conference road underdogs the last five years in this competitive series.

This Florida battle has been dominated by the underdog, covering eight of the last 10 times. That has usually been the road team, who is 8-3 ATS in these gatherings. Keep an eye on first team to score, with this squad emerging as straight up winner 80 percent of the time in last 20 encounters.

ESPN has this ACC opener starting at 8 Eastern.

Late Season Betting on Ranked Teams

The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.

Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.

Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.

After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.

His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.

Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.

All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.

1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?

2) How do ranked teams perform at home?

3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?

The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.

The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.

One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.

Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.

My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.

I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.

In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?

The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.

Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.

In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.