NHL Western Conference Playoff Preview

All four series favorites captured their first round conflicts and moved on to the next round. This sets up a pair of excellent matchups and each is expected to be a long series. Oddsmakers really have these teams bunched to emerge as finalist in the Stanley Cup from the West. Off their still unsteady play, San Jose is no longer the favorite in the Western Conference, as they and Detroit are both +250 to play for Stanley Cup. Chicago is the new choice at +200 with Vancouver all not the far behind at +300.

(1) San Jose vs (5) Detroit

San Jose might be the series favorite, but that is only because they would have four home games if the series went the limit.

These are two teams that know each other well, as coach Todd McLellan was on the Detroit staff until taking the San Jose job two years ago. McLellan installed the puck-possession style that has made the Red Wings so difficult to beat for more than decade.

If the Sharks really expect to make the West Finals, their top line cannot continue to be faulty like they have been for several years in the spring. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton once again added almost nothing and linemate Danny Heatley was not or is not 100 percent. Joe Pavelski’s line saved the Sharks from upset (22 points in series), however Detroit is world’s better than Colorado, especially at playoff time.

Veteran netminder Evgeni Nabokov was beaten twice by his own teammates, yet still conceded just 1.76 goals allowed with .926 save percentage. San Jose needs fast start and is 31-14 playing against a team with a winning record this season.

The NHL didn’t do the Red Wings any favors, having them start this next series less than 48 hours after finishing off Phoenix in Game 7. Thou Detroit had a couple of off games on home ice, they out-scored the Coyotes 17-6 winning the last three contests in the desert and they will have psychological edge over San Jose, based on performance after the regular season concludes.

While clichés are frowned upon into today’s world, they still work. Detroit’s best players have knack for playing their best when needed (something San Jose’s don’t), with Henrik Zetterberg’s 11 points being the finest example.

Netminder Jimmy Howard had plenty of uncomfortable moments against Phoenix, but when he made snap glove save on the first shot from the Coyotes in Game 7, it was apparent he was locked in. San Jose has a great deal more talented snipers that can bury the puck in the net and Howard will need Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and other defensemen to keep the pressure off him. Since the Olympic break, the Wings are 20-8.

Detroit took three of four during the regular season and has won six of last eight at HP Pavilion in San Jose dating back to playoffs on May 2, 2007. This is where pedigree counts and the Red Wings have it.

3Daily Winners Pick- Detroit (-105) in six over San Jose (-125)

(3)Vancouver vs (2) Chicago

A pair of Western Conference division champions will clash in this round. This is a rematch from one season ago and both teams believe anything less than visit to the Cup finals would be a major disappointment.

Thus far the two teams have been a mirror image of one another. Each started the playoffs sluggishly losing two of three and went on to win the last three contests and bring momentum into this round.

Vancouver can live up to their dreams as long as the Sedin brothers stay at their best. Just a few seasons ago Daniel and Henrik were considers postseason pushovers, no more, as they scored five goals and added 13 assists between them. They were involved in every meaningful goal against Los Angeles and will have to continue to dominate if they want to extract revenge on Chicago.

Roberto Loungo has a Gold Medal in 2010 to help him forget when he was open door, allowing the Blackhawks to score seven times in single contest last May. Loungo had a similar flashback in Game 3 against the Kings, as they lit the lamp five times; however he appears to have regained his composure and wants prove he’s the better goalie in this series. Vancouver starts round two 20-6 after two or more Over’s.

Chicago fate in this series might not rest with the Canucks; it might be right in the mirror. Too often the obviously more talent Blackhawks were unwilling to do the dirty work against Nashville and dug a hole for themselves. This could happen more easily with larger repercussions as Vancouver is upgrade ability-wise. When it counted, Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa came thru and they will be counted on again for Chicago to press on.

Rookie Antti Niemi was solid between the pipes with 2.15 GAA, which included keeping the Preds out of the net twice in the series. He’ll need the help of defensemen Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook to keep the Sedin’s busy away from the goal. The Hawks are 40-18 when they register three goals.

These teams split four battles, each winning once on the road. The first two games went Under and the last two went Over the total. Vancouver’s greatest weakness is the blue line. They couldn’t harness good Kings power play unit (seventh in the regular season), permitting 10 goals. Though Chicago’s man advantage crew isn’t as strong as L.A.’s, this could become deciding factor in tight series.

3DW Pick- Chicago (-145) in seven over Vancouver (+115)

Wings and Coyotes in desert duel

Oddsmakers had to be tempted to put Detroit as -300 home favorites for Game 6 after they beat the Coyotes Friday night in Glendale. Phoenix had fought the good fight, gotten back into the postseason with the franchise under a cloud of uncertainty, but were going to fall ultimately to the Red Wings, who’ve made six trips to the Stanley Cups finals in the last 14 years, taking home the trophy four times.

Oddsmakers couldn’t go overboard however, since they had Detroit as -200 and -230 money line favorites in Game 3 and 4 in Motown, thus opened them safely as -210 choice and let the public decide what they wanted. Besides the last thing any sportsbook wanted was more huge payouts on hockey after Washington and Pittsburgh had lost as -300 plus favorites this past week.

Only a small issue came up, Phoenix rose from the ashes thanks to an unlikely source, the power play.

The Coyotes were 28th during the regular season in man advantage goal situations at 14.7 percent and after a good start, were on 0-19 drought against Detroit.

But this is aberrant Phoenix squad. Understand that veteran Mathieu Schneider, who wasn't even playing in the NHL when the Coyotes acquired him at the trade deadline, but due to injuries, Schneider was forced into action and he scored one of the three power play goals the Yotes tallied in 5-2 incomprehensible upset.

Phoenix is 11-2 after a three goal or more margin of victory and looks forward to Tuesday night before the home fans. “Any time you can play in a Game 7, it’s a game you’ll remember,” Coyotes coach Dave Tippett said.

Detroit’s mood is more somber, but knows they have won two games in the road playoff sweaters. “They won the special teams battle,” Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said. “That sucked the life out of our team.”

The Red Wings are 19-4 after allowing five goals or more over the last two seasons and their rookie netminder is coming off increasing scrutiny. Thou brilliant at times, Jimmy Howard has been beaten for four or more goals three times in this series.

“No, I’m not concerned about him at all,” Babcock said when asked about Howard between the pipes. “We’re real comfortable with Howie. You can’t win Game 7 until you get there.”
Howard was defiant about his play and felt his team missed other scoring chances in last contest. “They got lucky,” Howard said. “We hit a couple posts.” Nevertheless, he has a lot of weight on his shoulders for this proud franchise and it is now a one-shot deal for this perennial playoff giant.

The dichotomy of this Game 7 couldn’t be any more striking.

Phoenix last was in the playoffs eight years ago and hasn’t won a playoff series since arriving in the desert, last advancing to next round as the Winnipeg Jets in 1987. Detroit is the two-time Western Conference champions and has the longest continuous postseason streak (19 years taking away the strike season) of all the major sports.

Hockey linemakers have the Wings as -120 money line favorites with total Ov5. They are only 7-13 revenging a loss as a home favorite this campaign and 24-15 UNDER after playing in their own rink. Phoenix fittingly has been an underdog in every game in this series and is 18-6 after lighting the lamp four or more times and is 17-3 UNDER after a two or more goal triumph.

Detroit has won 10 of previous 13 meetings in Arizona but hasn’t been faced with a Game 7 on the road in the first round of the postseason in 19 years, when they lost at St. Louis. In fact, the last time the Wings won opening round deciding contest was back in the days of the Original Six, stopping Chicago in 1964.

The VERSUS Network and TSN have this desert duel at 9:00 Eastern.

Taking control or survival in NHL Sunday Playoffs

In today’s Stanley Cup contests, four series commence in new locations, all tied up at 1-1, the most appealing of the group is Phoenix paying a visit to Motown, who will have two tries to regain home ice advantage. The first is nationally televised tilt on NBC.

You work all year for the playoffs and home ice, and in 60 minutes it can disappear as Chicago found out. Thus far all four higher seeds that lost initial game have come back to even series, can the Blackhawks do the same?

Phoenix at Detroit 3:00E NBC

The Coyotes knew they couldn’t match the speed and skill of the Red Wings in end to end hockey which is the very reason they lost 7-4 in Game 2. Phoenix has to button down the defense and play like they did in the series opener or they will trail for the first time in the series.

“We know when we play our game we’re capable of beating anybody, but we didn’t play our game,” captain Shane Doan said. “I’m sure it was fun to watch, but it wasn’t our type of game.” Phoenix is 15-6 off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons.

The high-scoring affair didn’t bother Detroit, who has won 50 consecutive games when scoring four or more goals in the postseason. “It sure helps winning the game last night instead of coming back being down 2-0,” Detroit captain Nicklas Lidstrom said Saturday. “We’re happy with the split.”

The Red Wings were mediocre 25-11 by their standards at Joe Louis Arena this season, however won eight of last nine in their own rink and are 45-10 in home games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game since 2007-08 campaign.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Detroit as -200 money line favorites, with total Ov5. The Wings are 24-4 after a blowout win by three goals or more and 9-0 UNDER at home after two exact road encounters. Phoenix has one victory is last six tries at “The Joe” and is 8-2 UNDER in road conflicts after both teams scored four goals or more.

Nashville at Chicago 8:30E TSN

The first contest was a battle of playoff newbies in net. Both played well for two periods, with Chicago leading 1-0. J.P. Dumont of Nashville flipped the puck towards the Blackhawks net and goalie Antti Niemi let the rubber play him and the game was tied.

That fluky goal gave the Predators the confidence to believe and Chicago was stunned and caved in. “I think that lucky bounce gave us momentum and gave us that hope, and I think we kind of got going after that,” Predators defenseman Shea Weber said. “That kind of woke us up.”

In less than 20 minutes the Hawks has lost home ice advantage and is faced with uncertainly and must win situation.

“I saw it coming to the net. I don’t know how it bounced or why,” Neimi said. “It had nothing to do with the ice. … It was just a terrible goal. We were handling things that far really good in the game.”

That was Nashville’s first postseason road win in 11 tries and they are 7-2 against good defensive teams conceding 27 or fewer shots on goal and allowing less than 15 percent on the power play.

“They get you when you are trying to make plays in the middle, they all come back really hard and when you try to go east-west, they end up taking it the other way,” Chicago’s Andrew Ladd said Saturday, describing the Predators’ defense.

Ladd and his teammates are -260 money line favorites with total Ov5 and are 16-4 after consecutive home games and 12-5 UNDER after allowing two goals or more in the third period last game this season.

Nashville goes for decisive lead in the series and has four wins in previous 11 visits to the Windy City and is 19-11 OVER having won two of three.

NHL Playoff Preview – Western Conference

The best part of the NHL season has arrived, the Stanley Cup chase. Eight teams from each conference all believing they are the team of destiny. The opening round is often treacherous territory as 12 lower seeds have won the last four years and three other went to a game seven, as the higher seed used its home ice edge to conquer opponent. Goaltending is such a huge part of the Stanley Cup dynamic and five of the seven regular starting netminders in the Western Conference have no previous postseason experience, which will just add to the craziness. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) San Jose vs (8) Colorado

The West has five legitimate teams capable skill-wise of making the Stanley Cup Finals and the top one at least from talent standpoint is San Jose. The Sharks have five 20-goal scorers, but are more thought of as lion from the Wizard of Oz, lacking courage at crunch time. Among the reasons is San Jose’s inability to outwork the opposition in April and May (let alone June) as past playoffs have shown and though Evgeni Nabokov is among the Top 10 goalies in the game, he is 32-31 in the postseason and did nothing to enhance is status with disappointing Olympic performance.

Youth was served in Colorado this season as remade roster was coached by first year coach Joe Sacco. The grind of a long season appeared to wear down the young Avs players, losing 10 of final 13 contests. Their top point producers were mostly first year players like Matt Duchene. Goalie Craig Anderson was 10-4 SU in October, but he too saw his play slip, after facing the most shots of any netminder in the NHL.

San Jose is the third choice to be Stanley Cup champions at +390 and have to take advantage of Colorado’s penalty-killing that has surrendered 15 goals in previous 14 games. San Jose is 5-1 on home ice against the Avalanche and 8-4 in the last three years. If the Sharks are truly hungry as they claim, they dominate Avs at home and at worst split in the Rockies.

3DW Pick- San Jose (-400) in five over Colorado (+330)

(2) Chicago vs (7) Nashville

The Blackhawks are actually the top betting choice to be in Cup Finals; however they will have to navigate a potentially treacherous opponent in Nashville. This will be the last series to commence, starting on Friday and the Predators have blue-line talent like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. They also have netminder who can turn into stone wall in Pekka Rinne, whose had personal win streaks of four or more games three times to go along with seven shutouts. Nashville is offensively challenged but coach Barry Trotz rings out every bit of talent out of this frugal franchise.

Chicago has splendid offensive players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith and is stellar as possessing the puck to keep the pressure on opposing defenses. The Blackhawks will look to keep this advantage and force Nashville mistakes, which could prove fatal with the Preds 28th in penalty kills. Chicago’s question mark is between the pipes with Finnish rookie Antti Niemi. The 26-year old has been the nearly impregnable, handing out seven zeroes in only 38 starts and is riding six-game winning streak. How long can it last?

Chicago won four of six, but these Central Division rivals couldn’t be any less familiar with one another, having not met in 2010. These teams only averaged 4.5 goals a game in their meetings, thus the Under and Chicago looks like the best bet.

3DW Pick- Chicago (-410) in five over Nashville (+340)

(3) Vancouver vs (6) Los Angeles

Unlike the 4 vs.5 matchup, Vancouver and Los Angeles will play in the same time zone for the duration of their series, playing every other day. The Canucks organization (to sound Canadien, pronounce it organ-EYE-zation) thinks of itself more than just a fringe player out West. They see themselves as real contenders with NHL's point’s leader Henrik Sedin leading a deep, balanced offense that can apply continual pressure. In net, Robert Luongo is regarded as one of the best keepers in the game, but can melt down like an ice cream cone on a warm summer’s day, leaving a mess. The Canucks were 30-11 on home ice, but face an under the radar Kings club that could be troublesome.

Though Los Angeles is a sixth seed compared Vancouver at No. 3, they only finished two points behind the Canucks in final standings and reached the 100-point total for the first time in 19 long years. The Kings have quality youngsters like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty and have no real expectations, thus can perform pressure-free compared to Vancouver. The Kings stay in the post-season will correspond with the play of goalie Jonathan Quick. The 24-year old was having brilliant campaign, but lost his final eight starts.

L.A. was 24-17 SU on the road, but lost both contests at Vancouver scoring a total of two goals. They will need Quick to be extra quick and score early to make Canucks breathe with greater uncertainty. This could go the distance with upset potential.

3DW Pick- Vancouver (-240) in seven over Los Angeles (+200)

(4) Phoenix vs (5) Detroit

Without a doubt the most compelling first round matchup of all. Phoenix was the most engaging story in hockey all year. A franchise owned by the league trying to find an owner to keep it in the desert, bringing in a coach just days before the start of the regular season, yet miraculously the Coyotes ended up with the 50 wins (fourth best) and are in the playoffs for the first time in eight years. Coach Dave Babcock is a back of the net choice for coach of the year and netminder Ilya Bryzgalov is a legitimate candidate for the Hart (best player) and Vezina (top goalie) trophies this year. Phoenix is the only higher seed not to be favored in a series and realistically for good reason.

It was not that long along Detroit was fighting just to earn the final spot in the West to make the postseason. However, the Red Wings got healthier week by week after the Olympic break and are on serious roll at 17-3-2. They Red Wings have the players known for high-level performances this time of year. Detroit will look to play keep away with the puck to slow down defensive-minded Phoenix and don’t have to fear the ‘Yotes prowess in shootouts (14 of the Coyotes wins came by this method) since regular overtime will decide winners.

These teams split four conflicts and if Phoenix wants to go beyond Cinderella fairy-tale dressed up as dogs, no better team to prove it against. Red Wings rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard has NO experience this time of the year; however Bryzgalov has just 16 playoff games under his sweater. Coyotes have to stay out of the penalty box and play their game to continue dream season.

3DW Pick- Detroit (-185) in six over Phoenix (+165)

Last exit to make NHL postseason

The hockey season is down to a precious few days and several teams have been fighting for survival just to make the playoffs, let alone worrying about what happens when they get there. Each conference has teams fighting to hang on or struggling to get in, looking to join the chase for the Stanley Cup. Here is look at the possibilities for all the contenders.

Eastern teams presently in

Montreal, Boston and Philadelphia occupy slots six thru eight in the Eastern Conference. Canadiens coach Jacques Martin has all but confirmed that Jaroslav Halak will be the starting goaltender for the remainder of the regular season. Montreal is 19-20 SU on the road and has winnable games at the New York Islanders and at Carolina before returning home to close the season against Toronto. Montreal should emerge as sixth seed.

After finishing second in goals scored a year ago in the NHL, the Bruins have been last most of the season putting the puck in the net and their only saving grace has been defense, with only New Jersey allowing fewer goals. Boston has home games against Buffalo and Carolina; however that isn’t necessarily a good thing for team that is 3-14 SU on home ice since Winter Classic at Fenway Park. Boston’s last game at Washington may be critical, however the Capitals might not bring best effort having wrapped up everything for the playoffs.

Philadelphia has lost nine of last 12 and has placed itself in precarious position. The Flyers can determine their own fate playing home and home with the New York Rangers whom they lead by a point in the standings. Right now Philadelphia also has an edge in a tie-breaker, with the first aspect looked at being number of wins.

Eastern teams trying to move up

The Rangers have won five of six including last three in a row and could use wins over Buffalo and Toronto to set up “all in” matchups with the Flyers. “We do not want to be the New York Rangers team that didn't make the playoffs," Brandon Dubinsky told the New York Post. "That's really important to us.”

Atlanta had a brutal close to the season schedule-wise, facing Washington and Pittsburgh twice along with taking on New Jersey. The Thrashers already lost to the Caps and Penguins last week and have to come up with six points in final three games to realistically even have a chance. Against this type of competition, that could be too tall an order.

Western teams presently in

Detroit has placed themselves in good position in the West, winning 10 of 13 and being as healthy as they have been all season. Rookie Jimmy Howard’s fine play between the pipes is the biggest reason why the Red Wings have gone from being a shaky participant to virtually in and has two matchups with Columbus that should give them the stamp of approval.

Of all the teams fighting to make the postseason, the Los Angeles Kings are the most impressive on their body of work for the year. The Kings are +22 in goal differential, basically the same as New Jersey and Phoenix, both who are comfortably in the playoff picture. L.A. can end Anaheim’s faint hopes with a victory and should earn two easy points hosting Edmonton before closing out the regular season at Colorado.

The Avalanche is gasping for air having tumbled to eighth in the West standings, by virtue of losing seven of nine. This young squad by appearances is just worn out from a long season after playing beyond expectations most of the year, which is evident on the defensive end, conceding three or more goals in all but one of their defeats. Playing at Edmonton should be a win; however with games at Vancouver, plus Chicago and the Kings on home ice, nothing is secured yet. The Avs are 24-15 SU on home ice which could help.

Western teams trying to move up

Calgary is attempting to make late charge, winning six of last 10, but its anemic offense will have to come up big vs. San Jose, Minnesota and at Vancouver to sneak into the playoffs.
Anaheim and St. Louis mathematically are still alive; however each has to win remaining contests to even get a sniff.

Bound for Glory Tuesday

After a couple of desultory days, got back to work with 3-0 Monday. For Tuesday have a sharp Top Trend in the NBA out West. Paul Buck is heating up in the NBA and has what he hopes is another winner for you today. Top quality systems are scarce today, however found one that is good just not up to out 80 percent standards. Good Luck

What I found today – Dallas opened as eight-point favorites against Milwaukee; however several sportsbooks have dropped the Mavs to 6.5-point faves with their 5-15 ATS home record. NBA bettors also haven’t been to keen on Warriors and Kings 221 total in Sacramento and most reporting stations have this one falling to 219.5.

Minnesota is off gut-wrenching one-point loss to Michigan State, nevertheless with its tremendous defense and long history of success at “The Barn”, the action has been on the Golden Gophers taking them from 10-point home favorites to 12 or 12.5.

In the ACC, the Miami and Maryland matchup has drawn the attention of total players, taking this one from opening 153.5 to 156 by afternoon to those East of the Mississippi River. Just the opposite of West Virginia at DePaul, as college hoops aficionados wonder who will score for the Blue Demons behind Will Walker, dropping the total from 126 to 122.5 at a few wagering outlets.

On the ice, despite losing four of last five, the Red Wings are a public betting favorite and have gone from -160 to -175 on the money, getting ready to host Phoenix. Maybe having won seven straight at “The Joe” over the Coyotes is influencing backers.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like Ball State where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. This decent system is 57-20 ATS, 74 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Golden State is 2-12 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest, losing by 12.7 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck had a winner last night and has won eight of his last 10 NBA plays and likes Milwaukee to cover the seven at Dallas.

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Half Season NHL Report

The National Hockey League will soon be taking a break due to the Olympics and with most at or past the halfway point of the season, determined this would be a good time to check in wagering aspects of all the teams. We’ll blend the team thoughts along with betting units for each team to create a perspective.

Eastern Conference

New Jersey (41-12, +17 units) The Devils have rekindled the magic, thanks to a group of hard-working players who rededicated themselves to playing New Jersey hockey and the front office replenished the depth. The Devils come at teams in waves and goalie Martin Brodeur is as sharp as ever. New Jersey’s 15-5 road record speaks to mindset.

Buffalo (28-16, +6.7 units) Buffalo was one of the first teams to adjust to the rule changes a few seasons ago, having faster players that could really work. They never got beyond being a good regular season team, however this season a case could be made presently that net-minder Ryan Miller is the league MVP for team on the rise again. This club is solid wager.

Washington (27-17, +3.2 units) Top scoring team in the league, led by Alex Ovechkin who is playing like a man on a mission. Goaltending is very suspect, which makes them a so-so bet for a top flight squad.

Pittsburgh (28-19, -0.7 units) The defending Stanley Cup champions have not been known for big first half efforts since they became elite team. They are burdened with inflated money lines, making each lost costly and they will go thru the motions for a stretch of games. They were four seed last year and won it all, will likely settle in same area and look to save energy for playoff run.

Montreal (22-25, -1.9 units) Fans of the Canadiens yearn for the days of the up and down the ice high-flyers. This team is in the bottom 15 percent of goals scored per game and goalies Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price essentially have to stand on their heads most night to give Montreal a chance.

Florida (18-27, -2.9 units) No name team that hasn’t make the postseason since 2000. The only reason they are a halfway decent wager is because they are almost .500 on the road, receiving heavy numbers from oddsmakers.

N.Y. Islanders (19-27, -3.5 units) The Eastern Conference is not stuffed with many good hockey teams, which is why the Isles still have a opportunity at the playoffs. To have any chance, the Islanders have to improve -26 goal differential.

Ottawa (22-24, -4.9 units) The Senators have hung in their despite losing their best scorer from last season and crummy goaltending. Credit coach Cory Clouston for keeping this afloat. Watch carefully however, this team could go south with more holes than Dunkin Donuts.
Atlanta (19-25,-5.9 units) Nothing like a nine-game losing streak to ruin what was shaping up to be a good first half of the season the Thrashers. It’s hard to tell what is worse right now, the defense or the goaltending.

N.Y. Rangers (22-23, -6.1 units) Think the Rangers have trouble scoring? Since Nov. 24, the Blueshirts have scored more than three goals three times (22 games). If Marian Gaborik were to get injured, the Rangers would likely be on a two goals max limit. Doesn’t goalie Henrik Lundqvist really deserve this?

Philadelphia (22-22, -6.3 units) Easily the most disappointing team in the East. Continual non-efforts cost John Stevens his coaching job and things haven’t improved much. Talented squad mired in mediocrity makes this a “stay away” from wager unless they collectively decide to play.

Boston (22-22, -7.3 units) If the Bruins had a consistent attack to light the lamp, they would be a super wager, since defensively they are among the best. For the most part they just pepper the net with mediocre shot attempts that high school goalie could stop and waste defensive efforts most nights, making them unsafe bet.

Tampa Bay (17-27, -7.9 units) Lousy record doesn’t tell the whole story. The Lightning is 2-10 in OT, including unlucky 0-6 in shootouts. If Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis start playing up to capabilities, this becomes dangerous play on team in hunt for playoff berth.

Toronto (15-31, -16.1 units) The Maple Leafs needed eight games to register initial victory and five more contests to reach two wins. Who has the league’s worst penalty killing outfit and allows the most goals, you don’t have to read the Hockey News to figure that out.

Carolina (13-31, -16.5 units) Did this team really win the Stanley Cup three and half years ago and make the East Finals last season! There had been talk this team was running on fumes last year, turns out to be true.

Western Conference

Nashville (27-19, +10 units) The biggest surprise for hockey bettors is the play of the Predators. Nashville doesn’t score a lot of goals, however receives contributions from a smorgasbord of players. Back-stops Pekka Rinne and Dan Ellis are like a dependable restaurant, good every time and there is no apparent reason why Nashville can’t keep winning and building bankrolls.

Colorado (26-21, +8.7 units) First year coach Joe Sacco deserves all the credit for molding this young squad into cohesive unit, with most experts seeing them in the Northwest Division basement by now. Not certain the youngsters can hold it together for the second half, more likely a play on-play against team depending on the streak.

Chicago (31-15, +7.5 units) Blackhawks fans can hardly believe their eyes; they have one of the best teams in the NHL after years of spendthrift ways. Chicago has exciting young talented snipers, a stingy defense and the best penalty kill unit in the game. Stanley Cup contender without injuries.

Phoenix (26-20, +7.0 units) Let’s get this straight, this team was in bankruptcy court, hired their present coach one week before the season started, while presumably headed for relocation and only four teams have more points than the Coyotes! Now it makes sense. If Shane Doan can start playing as well as netminder Ilya Bryzgalov, this might be another Miracle on Ice.

Los Angeles (25-21, +3.7 units) The Kings have suffered key injuries to some of its veteran players and still produced a winning record. With these players close to 100 percent, Los Angeles could match their early season success the rest of the way.

Vancouver (27-19, +3.3 units) The Olympics are in Vancouver, which could ruin a good season for the Canucks. Starting at the end of this month, Vancouver has to play eight road games before the break, after the Olympics, six more road games for a total of FOURTEEN straight games away from home. They are 9-11 on the road thus far.

San Jose (29-17, +1.8 units) From talent perspective, the best team in the West and probably the NHL. The problem is the Sharks are boring to bet. Heavy money lines mean soft wins and losses are like beaten eaten by sharks. Similar to New York Yankees, play on when in hot streak to show a profit before the losses hit.

Minnesota (23-23, +1.2 units) Minnesota’s 3-9 start really put them behind the curve and they have rebounded nicely to be .500. Distinct wagering qualities about the Wild - 15-7 at home and 8-16 on the road.

Calgary (26-20, -0.5 units) Jarome Iginla leads two good scoring lines for Calgary who has been somewhat forgotten in the Northwest Division with the play of Colorado. Miikka Kiprusoff is having his best year in net since the lockout and the Flames should be a consistent team in the second half.

Anaheim (20-26, -5.9 units) Too many personnel losses on the blue line have robbed this team of what used to be a reliable defense. The goaltending has been below average, complicating the situation. Even the ability to score is no help from a team that was this close to being in the Stanley Cup Finals last June.

Detroit (23-21, -6.9 units) Perhaps no team has been bitten by the injury bug to its most important players than the Red Wings. If most everyone can come back healthy by March, Detroit suddenly becomes a club nobody wants to face and could string a number of wins together at a fairer value for bettors.

Dallas (19-26, -7.9 units) Dallas is ordinary at best, picking up points in overtime losses, which only helps on the puck line at +1.5. Nothing points to rally or slipping further into the abyss, just continued triviality.

St. Louis (18-26, -8.9 units) It looks like the Blues second half surge from a season ago was a mirage and coach Andy Murray was recently jettisoned. With one of the poorer offenses around, this club is like a bad stock, dump it.

Edmonton (16-28, -11.2 units) What’s the best same to sum up Oilers? Inferior at home with 9-14 mark and rotten on the road with 7-14 record. Oh yea, one more thing, one of the worst defenses in the NHL. That about sums up Edmonton.

Columbus (18-29, -13.5 units) Columbus made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season and has followed up that joyous occasion by stinking up the joint at almost every turn. Even the home ice has yellow tint.

NHL bettors expect stars to shine in Game 7

It has been quite a NHL Playoffs, with TV ratings up, interest on the rise for the sport and first Game 7 in three years. While Carolina and Edmonton was exciting in 2006, the argument can be made this is the most anticipated final encounter since Colorado and New Jersey in 2001 or even 1994, when the New York Rangers broke their 54-year drought between Stanley Cups.

This Cup Finals have been all about the chalk, with the home favorite winning each time, as only the last game decided by a single goal. The final score in most cases didn’t tell the story. Five years ago New Jersey and Anaheim played seven games, with the home team winning each contest. That series was still played under the old rules and even insomniacs were nodding off watching that style of play.

Today’s version of hockey is about speed and skill, and each team is loaded with both. Detroit has overcome a number of injuries to get to this point and should be as rejuvenated as they have been in some time, playing before the home folks and working for just the second time in six days.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened Detroit as -170 money line favorites (highest of the series) and the wagering public has bet them up to -190. The Red Wings are 11-1 at Joe Louis Arena in the postseason and have won nine in a row at home. They are 9-2 as -150 to -200 playoff favorites.
Detroit will need the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg and struggling Marion Hossa to have big games. Zetterburg and particularly Hossa have not been as effective of late. Hossa admitted to ESPN.com reporter Pierre LeBrun he is pressing. Hossa made the controversial choice of leaving Pittsburgh for Detroit in the off-season and could be 0-2 in Cup finals, should the Wings lose. Detroit players like their chances in decisive conflict.

"We're confident going back to our home building and playing in front of our own fans, so it will be a fun game going back for Game 7," Detroit captain Lidstrom said.

Pittsburgh is 6-6 on the Stanley Cup chase road in 2009, with three consecutive defeats in Detroit, totaling two measly goals. The Penguins are 15-6 with two days between games this season. This is the time for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to elevate their games to superstardom. They felt the taste of bitter defeat a year ago and are 60 minutes from hoisting Cup for first time. Neither has scratched the score sheet the last two games, a third would raise more questions than find solutions for a team that is 43-19 after scoring two or less goals.

Like most hockey confrontations, goaltending arrives front and center for such an important contest. Chris Osgood for the Red Wings has the pedigree and the rings. Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury has a chance to step into greatness. Most people forget Fleury was the first piece to Penguins revival, being just the third goaltender taken as the first draft choice. He played on some wretched Pittsburgh squads before Crosby and Malkin showed up and is still the biggest question mark coming into Game 7. He’s been brilliant at times in the series, but also less comfortable than a player wearing skates three sizes too big in three losses in Motown.

"You have stuff happening in your head, but you have to just block all the outside, all the negative thoughts and just play the game, keep it simple, have some fun," Fleury said. "To have an opportunity like this to get [the Cup], it's awesome."

The total is listed at its lowest figure of the seven games at Un5.5 (the rest were even or over 5.5) and the previous three contests in Detroit played Under. The Red Wings are 9-3-2 UNDER in last 14 Stanley Cup Finals contests, with Pittsburgh 16-5 UNDER after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season.

The winner of Game 7 will have untold joy, which will commence at 8:05 Eastern on NBC, with the favorite 13-3 in last 16 meetings between these teams.

Red Wings turn to respond

A regulation NHL hockey game lasts three 20-minute periods, sometimes these contests only need a few minutes to render a verdict as to who wins the game. This exact scenario happened in Game 4 at The Igloo in Pittsburgh and it might turn out to be the turning point of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2009.

Detroit again outplayed the Penguins in the first period, out-shooting them 19-11 and just 46 seconds into the second period, Brad Stuart gave the Red Wings a 2-1. Detroit was still carrying the action to Pittsburgh and drew a penalty to set up power play and everybody watching knew one more goal and the party in the Motor City was about to go into the planning stages.

After Nicklas Lidstrom had his shot blocked by Maxime Talbot, who passed to Jordan Staal, everything at the Mellon Center started happening in slow motion. Staal who had been a non-factor, glided by Brian Ralafski and beat goalie Chris Osgood for a short-handed goal to pull the Pens even at 2-2.

"It was huge," Sidney Crosby said of Staal's goal. "They had gotten a couple power plays right in a row. I think it was three minutes before he scored that goal, straight power play time. So, that was a huge momentum shift for us to get that. To get that kill. That first one, and then for Jordan to score that was a bonus. And then we bounced back right away."

Most businesses suffering from the recession which they could “bounce back” the way the Penguins did. For a period of five minutes and 37 seconds, Pittsburgh put on a display seldom seen in the Finals, as Crosby and Tyler Kennedy lit the lamp to give their team a 4-2 lead, which they never relinquished. It was a unique display of talented players at their best. Something else occurred which happens about as often as Heidi Montag avoiding a photo-op, Detroit lost their poise.

"You can't have letdowns against a team like that three-on-twos, two-on-ones, because eventually they're going to capitalize," Lidstrom said. "We didn't keep our composure there in the second period."

With the race for the Cup now a best two-of-three, the scene shifts back to Detroit, where the Wings are 10-1 in the playoffs and understand how these things go in late spring.

"We've been 2-2 over the years quite a bit, whether it be with Calgary, Nashville, whether it be in the Anaheim series," Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. "Everyone talks about momentum, but I'm a big believer that momentum is, you know, as good as the next day's start kind of thing. Just get out there and get playing again and go from there. ..the next game's absolutely huge for us."

Detroit has won 49 of last 66 contests at Joe Louis Arena and is -150 money line favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. The formula to victory might be as simple as the math. The Red Wings have won both games the total was Under and lost twice when the score went Over the number. The Wings are 22-3 at home after one or more consecutive Overs this season. With the total at Ov5.5, are oddsmakers telling us Pittsburgh might be the play? Detroit is 7-1 OVER in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of two goals or more.

Pittsburgh is revitalized and has Crosby, Evgani Malkin and Staal all playing well, which could spell large conundrum for Detroit. They have broken the ice on Osgood’s invincibility and Marc-Andre Fleury is back to being dependable puck-stopper. The Penguins are 21-8 following a triumph and have played OVER last six times with a day between games.

Thankfully, the Finals return to NBC starting at 8 Eastern, with the favorite having won last five meetings.

Five Thoughts from House of Sports

Pay Up, Your Majesty

NBA commissioner David Stern says LeBron James has been fined $25,000 for skipping the postgame news conference after Cleveland lost to Orlando in the Eastern Conference finals. Stern said Thursday night that he spoke with the Cavaliers star on Wednesday and that James admitted he was wrong to not congratulate Orlando’s players and coaches after the loss. Initially, Stern had said he wasn’t going to fine James, but the commissioner said, “It was inappropriate for me to give someone a pass here.” As much as we admire the skill and charisma that LeBron has brought to the NBA, we’ll have to side with the Commish on this one.

A No-Doubt Rout

After spending the entire week declaring to the world that they “absolutely belonged in the NBA Championship round,” the Orlando Magic performed a disappearing act last night that would have made David Copperfield envious. In one of the most dominating openers to the NBA Finals, the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant poured in 40 points to lead his team to an embarrassingly easy 100-75 destruction of the Magic. “I think the best thing we can do is forget about it,” said a magnanimous Bryant, who added eight assists, eight rebounds, two steals and two blocked shots. “This is a resilient Orlando Magic team.” The Magic, heading into Sunday’s Game 2 in Los Angeles, face an ominous deficit even after one game. Orlando must stare down history to overcome the favored Lakers: Phil Jackson-coached teams have a 43-0 record after winning the first of a best-of-five or seven-game series. Yikes!

Big Day For The Big Unit

He’s no longer the fearsome, intimidating presence he used to be on the mound but pitcher Randy Johnson finally joined the 300-win club. The Big Unit pitched two-hit ball for six innings to pick up his 300th career win Thursday night at Nationals Park, but the milestone nearly had to wait. First his Wednesday start was postponed by rain, and then the San Francisco Giants’ 5-1 victory against the Washington Nationals on Thursday nearly slipped away. With the score 2-1 in the eighth inning, reliever Brian Wilson stuck out Adam Dunn looking on a 3-2 fastball with the bases loaded and two outs. An inning later Johnson became the 24th pitcher to win 300 games.

Sometimes You Feel Like A Nutt

Can we call it “The Houston Nutt Rule?” After Ole Miss signed 37 players in February, the SEC passed a rule last week limiting conference football teams to signing 28 players annually. “The Ole Miss situation was embarrassing for a lot of our coaches,” commissioner Mike Slive said. “I know Ole Miss’ plan was to steer those non-qualifiers to the local JUCOs in Mississippi. But it left a sour taste in a lot of coaches’ mouths that stress that these recruits are students first and athletes second.” NCAA rules allow schools 25 scholarships per year, but there is no rule about how many letters of intent a school can send out to players. Programs across the nation generally oversign in anticipation that a few of the players they sign won’t qualify academically. The SEC joins the Big Ten as the only conferences in the nation to have a limit in place, but one Big 12 assistant who asked to remain anonymous said he hopes this will push the NCAA to make it a rule throughout Division I football.

Take Off, You Hosers

No, we haven’t forgotten about Bob and Doug McKenzie’s favorite sport and the annual battle for Lord Stanley’s Cup. But after Detroit jumped out to a quick 2-0 series lead over Pittsburgh, it looked like a sweep was in the offing. Not so fast, my friends! When Pittsburgh Penguins center Jordan Staal outmuscled Brian Rafalski to score a shorthanded goal against the Detroit Red Wings last night, it ignited the Penguins to a 4-2 victory that tied the best-of-seven series at 2 heading into Game 5 on Saturday in Detroit. Now, two-out-of-three takes home the big prize.

Courtesy of the www.houseofsports.com/

Penguins look to exploit Detroit weakness

Pittsburgh could never have envisioned being outplayed for the better part of two periods on home ice down 0-2 to Detroit and coming away with a victory to close the series to 2-1 in favor of the Red Wings. But that is exactly what happened, thanks to jubilant crowd and the Penguins digging deeper in the third period to win the game.

By the end of the second period, Pittsburgh had taken Detroit’s best shot and lived to tell about. After a 2-2 first period, the Red Wings out-shot, out-played and out-hustled the Pens in the second period. Detroit had 14 shots on goal, compared to four by Pittsburgh, including five that would be considered true goal potential attempts. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury withstood the flurry of Wings’ shots and saved his team for the first time in the Cup Finals.

This must have given Pittsburgh a glimmer of hope as they played wide-open in the third period from the start, peppering Detroit netminder Chris Osgood with shots and laying hits on everyone in a white and red jersey.

This led to Detroit penalty and Sergei Gonchar made them pay, taking 3-2 lead. Detroit played like an older team forced to play third game in four days and mustered only three shots in last stanza.

The Penguins have won 20 of last 25 as playoff favorites and have found one of the few Detroit weaknesses. Much like Rafael Nadal was able to undercover Roger Federer doesn’t play the shoulder height backhand well; Pittsburgh has to be super aggressive in there own end to force penalties. The Red Wings have give up 18 power play goals in 63 penalty kills, for a contemptible 71.4 percentage in the postseason. This is a direct carryover from the regular season, when Detroit was ranked 25th in the league at 78.3 percent. With creative playmakers like Sidney Crosby and Evgani Malkin, the Penguins lit the lamp twice in Game 3 under those circumstances.

Even Detroit players are puzzled. Defenseman Brad Stuart said, "For whatever reason, we've had some trouble with it (killing penalties). If we knew exactly why, we would have corrected it. We're getting some bad breaks. The last goal, we just got caught out there and we're a little gassed. We've come up with some timely kills, but definitely, statistically this doesn't look too good."

Of course the easiest solution is not to commit penalties, however when fatigued or forced to play out of character, miscues occur. Detroit is still in control and a sharper performance could put them one game away from playing decisive game for Stanley Cup. The Red Wings are 44-12 after opponent allows two or fewer goals and are encouraged to possibly have center Pavel Datsyuk back for first time in the Finals. “He’s one of the best players in the world,” Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. “Obviously, we’d like to have him.”

Pittsburgh is -145 money line favorites, with total Ov5.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. The Penguins are 51-16 as home chalk and are 5-0 OVER on one day’s rest. Detroit has now lost last five encounters as road underdogs and is 6-1 OVER when oddsmakers place them in this role.

If the last contest was huge for Pittsburgh, then Game 4 is gargantuan, since a loss means going to the Motor City with Red Wings poised to win another Cup. This conflict will start a little after 8 Eastern on Versus, with the favorite having won last four meetings.

Penguins' focus is on Game 3, not series

The Pittsburgh Penguins players are saying all the right things, it’s just nobody is listening. The Penguins have had bad luck with unusual bounces, ringing the Detroit goalie cage like it’s a doorbell and outplaying the defending Stanley Cup champions for extended periods of time. One problem, Pittsburgh still trails like they did last year 2-0 after two games in the Finals.

Sidney Crosby has had point blank chances all around the Red Wings net, the problem has been, Detroit bodies have been stacked like logs for a log cabin house, with goalie Chris Osgood acting as insulation.

“I think we outplayed them,” Penguins defenseman Hall Gill said. “Last year, we got outplayed pretty badly.”

Those are the kinds of things you say when you have out-shot the opposition 64 -56 and been outscored 6-2 in the first two contests.

Evgeni Malkin is not the pushover he was last year at this time, however he could hardly be called a force and rightfully should be suspended for Game 3, except for another quick NHL office change. Malkin took out his frustration on Detroit‘s Henrik Zetterberg in the closing seconds of last conflict and should have gotten instigator penalty, which carries an automatic one-game suspension when such an occurrence happen in the last five minutes.

However, this is the NHL, who changed around Finals schedule to increase viewership at the last minute and they offered this as reason. “Suspensions are applied under this rule when a team attempts to send a message in the last five minutes by having a player instigate a fight [or] when a player seeks retribution for a prior incident. Neither was the case here," league disciplinarian Colin Campbell.

Campbell must have watching the Travel Channel if he didn’t believe Malkin wasn’t trying to send a message. You can bet the Phoenix Suns wished Campbell was handing out discipline when Robert Horry deliberately threw Steve Nash into scorers table a couple seasons ago and Suns players came to his rescue, drawing similar automatic suspensions, which was enforced.

Pittsburgh returns home, after what amounts to a four game road trip, where they are 6-2 in the postseason and winners of 10 of last 12. The Penguins acted angry and frustrated and are 9-2 off a loss by two or more goals on the road. They can be as hyped up as they want, but unless netminder Marc-Andre Fleury starts playing like he’s in the Finals, instead of like a member of the New York Islanders, it’s a moot point.

Fleury played very skitterish in opener and was better Sunday, until rookie Justin Abdelkader tossed a half-hearted knuckling shot at Fleury, who swung and missed, giving Detroit a huge two goal lead. While the NBC commentators said the Pittsburgh defensemen should have done a better job (and they should have), this is for the Cup and you NEVER allow such a soft goal, IF you have ambitions of being champions.

The Red Wings are ludicrous 18-3 in last 21 Finals encounters and they have been smarter, more productive and had superior goaltending to this juncture.

The way Detroit plays keep away with the puck, it reminds one of watching taller children playing “keep away” with a ball, with younger and smaller kids chasing them around, hollering at them to give up the ball. This strategy has really paid off at the end of games, when tuckered out Pens defensemen have no legs and makes miscues.

Crosby and company might be 12-1 in home games revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, nevertheless Pittsburgh is up against a harrowing situation, as only one of 32 teams have lost first two games on the road and come back to be crowned the champions of hockey and that was 38 years ago when Montreal accomplished the feat.

Pittsburgh is left with little choice other than to place all energy into Game 3, where they are -150 money line favorites with total of 5.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Possibly returning to playoff favorites will help Penguins who are 19-5 in that role. It would appear Pitt has to play Over to win and they are 9-2 OVER after three or more consecutive Unders this season.

Despite playing so effectively, Detroit has lost last four games as underdog and will try to maintain playing so controlled and are 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing two goals or less in four straight tilts.

Amazingly, the Versus Network will have the next two games, starting at 8:05 Eastern in western Pennsylvania, where the Wings have triumphed six of eight times.

Stanley Cup Final Preview

The NHL powers that be in their haste to capitalize on good television ratings and unique rematch, more or less screwed up the Stanley Cup Finals. They were originally scheduled for long break after Detroit and Pittsburgh clinched early, starting on Friday June 5. Instead, the teams will play back to back games this weekend, three games in four days and four games in six days, all before the original start of the series.

Detroit, the defending Cup champions, can’t help but feel the league is against them. The Red Wings have more nagging ailments than a wing at a retirement home.

"We're not happy, I have to be honest," Wings GM Ken Holland told ESPN.com from his office Thursday. "We're disappointed that we haven't had an extra day's rest. It's a double-whammy, the quick turnaround and back-to-back games [to open the finals]. We're disappointed because we think when you win a series in five games or less, that you have earned an opportunity to have a few more days of rest.”

This should provide emotional fuel for Detroit, who still has the most depth of any NHL team and it will be tested against younger and hungry Pittsburgh team. For both teams the schedule is set, thus you have to win four contests to be Stanley Cup champions, even if the league set up doubleheaders.

This is the first rematch from the prior season in 25 years and the parallels are eerie. A young Edmonton team, led by Wayne Gretzky, had been handled by a veteran New York Islanders squad who had dominated play for a number of years. The Oilers learned their lessons and came back and defeated the Isles the following season and set on their own journey.

Pittsburgh, led by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, are trying to do much the same thing. This duo has been the dominant force in this year’s postseason, totaling 56 points. Both struggled in last year’s Finals, especially Malkin, and each seeks redemption. The Penguins are also receiving contributions from players like Bill Guerin and Ruslan Fedotenko, making them especially dangerous.

One big difference for Pittsburgh is maturity level, they have played with more purpose and everyone is doing a superb job forechecking, which has led to numerous scoring chances. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury will give up a couple of soft goals, but has been resolute in not letting it bother him and he’s turned back many difficult shots and is in Cup Finals again. Pittsburgh has won 24 of last 33 games against teams with winning records.

Detroit is banged up and is expecting to have defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom back. How close to full strength he and the other walking wounded will be is anyone’s guess, however this is for the Stanley Cup and there is a great deal of pride involved when your team has won four of last 11.

Pittsburgh does not have anyone like Johan Franzen or Marian Hossa who can causes real headaches for Penguins defense. Neither has been special in the playoffs, though wholly capable. The Hossa situation is a delicious subplot, since he walked away from a better long-term contract offer with Pittsburgh last season, to play for Detroit. He basically thumbed his nose at the Penguins, believing the Red Wings were a better team. Though opinions vary about his decision, Detroit is still 54-18 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

In the name of Gump Worsley, let’s stop all this nonsense about how good is Chris Osgood. All he does is set up the last line of defense of what has been the best team in hockey for a decade. Does he sometimes falter during the regular season, no doubt. If he wasn’t an elite goaltender, he wouldn’t be in net, period.

Detroit is a -150 money line choice to take the first game on home ice, with total Un5.5. The Red Wings have won 16 of last 19 games in the Finals and are 42-9 at Joe Louis after playing at home. Pittsburgh is 9-3 as road underdog of +110 to +150 and is 11-4 as visitor after scoring three or more goals in three consecutive games. The teams split a pair of meetings, each winning on the others home ice.

As far as the series is concerned, Detroit is -145 favorite. If completely healthy, the Red Wings are the best team in hockey. However, they are not and the league did them no favors in setting up schedule this way. Detroit is not nearly as good a defensive team as last year, surrendering 60 more goals during the regular season. With Pittsburgh at the top of their game and their dynamic duo hungry and more forceful, the Penguins are well-positioned. To date, have 11-3 record in selecting series winners and will back Pittsburgh to be crowned champions.

Pick- Pittsburgh (+125) in six

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com

Climbing up the hump on Hump Day

Got punched in the mouth but good yesterday with 0-3 record. It was one of those days you felt it coming, since I missed both personal wagers, and if I would have been real smart, would have passed yesterday all together. But this blog is about information and sometimes you win and sometimes you don’t. In our last 127 plays we are 75-50-3, 60 percent. We come right back to same series for Best System that is 62-9, none too shabby. Heading to the ice for Top Trend, wondering if Red Wings close out series? Sal off a sharp day, can he keep it up with Free play, check it out. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday- Zack Grienke allowed six hits in a complete-game 6-1 victory over the Tigers, raising his ERA to 0.84 in 10 starts this season. Greinke is only the third pitcher in the live-ball era to compile an ERA below 1.00 over his first 10 starts in a season. The others were Hoyt Wilhelm (0.83 in 1959) and Juan Marichal (0.59 in 1966).

Free Baseball System-1) This system is hybrid version of article listed below about Pale Hose and Halos and it reads this way – PLAY AGAINST underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This is Jered Weaver and Angles at 62-9, 87.3 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Detroit Red Wings are 11-0 in home games after playing two games where seven or more total goals were scored.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 5-0 yesterday and likes Minnesota Twins to series over Boston.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Chicago and Detroit Preview

Think back to the first day of 2009, when a jam-packed Wrigley Field was hosting this year’s Winter Classic in the NHL, who would have had any idea the Red Wings and Blackhawks would later meet in the Western Conference Finals? This will be the 15th meeting in the playoffs of these Original Six rivals, the last coming 14 years ago.

Chicago is the biggest underdog of the remaining teams chasing the Stanley Cup and just not because they are playing Detroit. The Blackhawks have picked up fewer extra credit hours than a D-student hosting all-night parties. Chicago’s postseason resume reads like Cat in the Hat. However, things are changing quickly in the city of broad shoulders, as the Hawks has amassed a large quantity of young and speedy skaters, with an average age of under 25, who are growing up quickly.

Consider this tidbit, Chicago sophomore stud Patrick Kane was two years old when six-time Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom played his first NHL game. The Blackhawks closed the season 9-3 and took down Calgary and Vancouver without any playoff pedigree. Jonathan Toews is another young star and Martin Havlat is as big a reason as any the Canucks were sent packing. The Hawks power play has been on fire, converting almost 30 percent in the postseason and they are 24-9 ATS when they get four to five power play opportunities per game this season.

The Detroit Red Wings should have their interest piqued, facing a division rival and considered one of the up and coming teams in the NHL. This is a perfect opportunity for Detroit to show their Central foe that playoff hockey is significantly different from the regular season. The Red Wings blueliners will be in charge of limiting speed rushes by the Blackhawks and if they can steal the puck, the defensemen are well-skilled in playing keep away to frustrate the younger team, which Detroit coach Mike Babacock hopes leads to miscues and scoring chances for his team.

Goalie Chris Osgood won’t go down as an all-time great netminder, just a winner who picks up jewelry for winning Stanley Cups. Johan Franzen has been scoring machine in the postseason with eight goals and 15 points. Hockey fans know what Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk bring to the party, plus the Red Wings have all that experience which has helped them be 22-2 in home games off a home win scoring four or more goals over the last two seasons.

Detroit won the first four meetings, which were all played by Jan. 1, before either team new what specifically they would end up with. Chicago won a pair of meaningless games on the last weekend of regular season to secure fourth seed. The Wings are 8-3 in the postseason and the Hawks are 8-4. From the standpoint of pure talent these two aren’t that apart, but in the end, the experience factor will matter as Detroit keeps dream alive for fifth Cup in last dozen years.

3DW Pick- Detroit (-220) in six

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com

NHL Playoff Preview – Conference Semi-finals

With one series already started, the other three conference semi-finals will begin this weekend. The amazing Anaheim Ducks will look to play spoiler for a second consecutive series, after knocking off top-seeded San Jose. In the East, No.1 Boston goes up against a cagey Carolina club who won a game seven in New Jersey. Washington came back from 3-1 deficit to ruin the Rangers postseason plans and faces Pittsburgh who is trying to get back to Stanley Cup Finals.

(8)Anaheim vs (2) Detroit

The Anaheim Ducks present a ticklish road block for Detroit, whose path to the Finals has been cleared in part with San Jose dismissed. Though Anaheim doesn’t have as many talented performers from the team that won the Cup two years ago, they still have a solid core of performers, well acquainted with the type of mental toughness needed to play hockey in May and June. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer are on the top of their game at present and the rest of the Ducks defensemen are likely the strongest group of those remaining. Goalie Jonas Hiller had Sharks players talking to themselves, with .957 save percentage and two shutouts.

Detroit has more depth and talent and can take stranglehold on this series by jumping on the Ducks. Teams off big upsets will often not be able to sustain momentum against new opponent. What makes the Red Wings so difficult is points come from everywhere. They had 11 different players register three or more points against Columbus. Detroit has no problem mixing it up with Anaheim, but takes far fewer penalties, which should give them edge throughout with potent power play.

Though Anaheim will be awfully physical with Detroit, they tend to take too many dumb penalties and the Red Wings do exceptional job screening goaltenders, ask Columbus net-minder Steve Mason. With too much talent and smarts, Detroit is 21-6 as playoff favorites and advance to West Finals.

Pick- Detroit (-320) in five

(1)Boston vs (6) Carolina

This time of year, rest is believed to be a good thing, taking a mental break and let tired bodies recover. However, how much rest is too much when you have nine days between games like Boston? What the Bruins have to watch for is Carolina carrying momentum into series after winning last two games to upset New Jersey and advance. Boston has a plethora of scorers, going four lines deep, with goal scorers. Goalie Tim Thomas is Vezina finalist and Zdeno Chara leads a sturdy group of defensemen. The Bruins are 31-12 on home ice and have been particularly effective late in the season, winning 10 of last 11.

Carolina is a treacherous opponent for Boston and likely anybody in the East. The Hurricanes have won 13 of last 18 to blow into the second round and have piping-hot goaltender in Cam Ward. He should have a great deal of confidence after staring down future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur and downing the Devils. Carolina has Eric Staal who is still a force and Erik Cole might be due to break out after going scoreless against New Jersey. The Hurricanes come into series 9-3 against offensive teams scoring three goals a game in the half of the season.

Two dynamics really standout in this series. How quickly does Boston find its legs against a real opponent, as an injured Montreal team proved to be nothing more than hard practices? If the Bruins lack focus from the get-go, Carolina could catch them off guard. The Hurricanes lost all four games to Boston this season and have dropped five in a row dating back to last year. Will they be able to shake the confidence of Bruins who are not battle-tested in playoff action like they are? Carolina will have no real fear heading to Bean-town having won 20 of last 28 games there.

Pick- Boston (-240) in seven

(2)Washington vs (4) Pittsburgh

The NHL bosses couldn’t have asked for a better set-up to build the drama of the Stanley Cup playoffs than this matchup. This will be the first of what could be several postseason meetings between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. What about the undercard, with Ovechkin facing off against regular season scoring champ Evgeni Malkin?

If that isn’t enough to bring the circus to town, what about the goaltender matchup? Rookie Simeon Varlamov is 21-years old and entered the playoffs in net in Game 2, which turned out to be a gutsy call by Washington coach Bruce Boudreau. Varlamov did his job, however the Penguins snipers are much better sharp-shooters than what the Rangers had. The Capitals were able to comeback against New York when Alexander Semin became a factor. For the series, he scored five times and totaled eight points. Washington starts this best of seven 37-16 as home favorites.

Pittsburgh has responded to coach Dan Bylsma, who lost the interim tag this week. Besides his collection of young, but veteran players, he has goalie Marc-Andre Fleury who is back to playing like he did at the end of last season. The Pens won’t be intimidated by setting, having won six of last seven as +150 or less money line road underdogs.

This series has everything imaginable and how the stars focus on their own team as opposed to the opponent will be critical. Washington won three of four this year; nonetheless the Penguins could start swiftly having emerged victorious five of six in Washington.

Pick- Pittsburgh (-105) in seven

Interview with a Hot Handicapper

Rocky Atkinson, the Rocketman, is a professional handicapper who has been around the block. He knows the ins and outs of the game and is having a year most handicappers and sports bettors would only dream of. It would take up pages of space to list all the accomplishments of the Rocketman and would suggest viewing his website for detail at RocketmanSports.com. As Rocky put it, he may be “old school”, but sports bettors know, winning never gets old.

Doug Upstone: Rocky, you are having a monster year, after many years of success. What are you doing differently then in the past?

Rocketman: I haven’t changed a whole lot, if things don’t do well for a certain season or sport I tinker, overall still doing about the same thing.

DU: When you say you tinker, what do you tinker with?

RA: Let’s take the NHL for example; this has been my best year in the NHL EVER, in any sport, by units won. I took an idea from Major League baseball and added it to my NHL handicapping. It’s really worked out; I’m up +137.7 units right now.

DU: I checked around and see you leading in the NHL at every sports monitor by a large margin, awesome job. While on the topic of hockey, the NHL has gone to the conference semi-finals, what thoughts do you have on the four series about to commence?

RA: In the Western Conference, Vancouver is extremely hot right now. Vancouver swept St Louis four games to none in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Vancouver has now won seven games in a row heading into Round 2 against Chicago. Vancouver has had a ton of rest as they haven't played in nine days. Is that good or bad for them? I'm thinking good in this case. Vancouver has won eight of the last 12 meetings with Chicago the past three years and 15 of the last 22 in Vancouver since 1996. I feel like Vancouver gets the job done in this series but it won't be easy.

Anaheim is coming off an incredible series against San Jose as they ousted the #1 seed in the West in six games. Detroit swept a pesky Columbus team, winning the first three games by three or more goals. I'm expecting a letdown from Anaheim here in this series and Detroit definitely has the better team and I feel is now the team to beat this year. Detroit is 24-7-2 at home vs Anaheim since 1996 giving them a huge edge there. Detroit is playing with seven days rest while Anaheim is playing with three. Detroit should get the job done easy here in this series, but the price is too high.

DU: What about the Eastern Conference?

RA: It took Carolina all seven games to beat New Jersey, but they got the job done. Carolina is a team that seems to step it up in the big games. They are 8-3 in the second round games since 1996, while Boston is only 2-4 in the same time frame in conference semis. Boston swept their series against Montreal beating them four games to none. Boston has won the past five meetings against Carolina; however Carolina is 19-8-2 at Boston since 1996. Over the past three years, this series is tied at six wins each. I'm going to lean to Carolina in this series to pull the upset. You will be getting good price in this one.

In the other series, I'm looking for Pittsburgh to upset Washington. The Rangers took Washington all the way to a Game 7 in their series while Pittsburgh got by the Flyers in six games. Washington had to win three in a row to escape elimination. Pittsburgh has won eight of the last 12 meetings in this series including a very nice 5-1 record in Washington the past three years.

DU: Great info, mentioned correlation you’ve made between baseball and hockey, could you explain further?

RA: What I do in those two sports is I’ve developed power ratings; I call them The Rocketman Line. I do this for each sport. I take my lines and compare them to Las Vegas line and when I have a differential that meets my criteria, I look deeper into that game.

DU: In talking about baseball, I know you are off to sensational start in that sport also, what are some of your keys to beating baseball and getting through the daily grind, since baseball has 15 games, five of the seven days of the week for the most part.

RA: The one thing I do in baseball and in every other sport actually, that differs me from other handicappers, is they think they have to have something to put out and sell. Most will put out a ton of plays; the fact is if you don’t have anything on the shelf, people surely can’t buy it. I try not to worry about that. I feel that proper money management is a huge ingredient to the overall winning recipe. I don’t play a game because it’s on TV, just because its Monday Night football or the playoffs. I don’t force a play that isn’t there; I simply pass and wait for something better that comes along the following day. In baseball, I’ve only has 18 plays for entire season. I’m 14-4, 78 percent and my top Major League baseball plays are 8-0, those are my four and five unit plays. In fact, I just checked Sports Monitor standings and I’m No. 1 there.

DU: Beautiful. I saw on your website, you have a line that says –Stop Gambling, Start Investing- explain what you mean by that.

RA: I give out plays, but I also try and teach people about proper investing. A gambler and I used to do this, will play every NFL game on Sunday. You are definitely going to play the Monday Night football game, trying to double down to win or try and get your losses back. That’s not smart; you have to be like more of an investor. If I release a play, bet that play for the exact amount of units I give out, don’t bet with your heart, don’t bet on all the TV games. Stay with the investment. Try one of my packages and in the long term, you will beat the man.

DU: I see you cover seven different sports, where do you find the time?

RA: (Chuckle) That’s where the Rocketman Line comes in. I look at every single game on the board each day. I start handicapping over night and often don’t finish till about lunch time the following day, except for on the weekends of course. I put in many, many hours, I’m an old-school guy, I do most of my work on paper. I update my power ratings each day, that’s where I start and I go from there.

DU: Many handicappers have bad reputations with the public and deservedly so, but you have always stayed above the fray. I understand you are involved with Relay for Life, tell me about your involvement?

RA: I started with Relay for Life about five years ago; it is with the American Cancer Society. We start at 7:00 PM on Friday night and we go till 7:00 AM on Saturday morning. We have different teams to raise money for the Cancer Society at a park here in South Carolina. The money is used for research and to help those who are in need.

My team is from my church and the idea is to have one person from your team on the track the entire 12 hours doing a lap. Last year our county raised $157,000.00. I’m a sponsor and try to help out as much as I can. The first lap of event is done by cancer survivors, it’s called the Survivor lap and they let go of doves. It’s really a nice cause to be a part of.

DU: I can tell by your voice, you are passionate about it as well.

RA: A couple of years ago, my wife’s first cousin’s child, contracted a very rare disease, she was two or three when she was diagnosed. She had to go to St. Jude’s in Memphis, TN and have operation to have part of both of her kidney’s taken out. She is in remission and doing well. It is a joy to see her leading the pace lap.

DU: Wow that is great and very inspiring. It’s nice to tell people about the human side of handicappers. Too often the story is all the bad news.

RA: Very true.

DU: In summation, what piece of advice would you have the sports bettor looking to improve?

RA: Definitely work on money management. I’ve been on fire, yet I have some members who say, “Hey man, I need some help! I’ve lost” even though I killed it with the plays they bought. They start adding plays of their own or other people. Stay with a money management system; don’t play games just to play them. A lot of people start doing what is called recreational betting, that’s where they get into trouble. Like I said, stop gambling and start investing. You don’t have to play every day.

DU: Great advice Rocky and continued success to you for the rest of the year.

RA: Thanks Doug, it’s been a pleasure.

NHL Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Being a higher seed has meant very little since the strike season in the West. In the 12 first-round series, only five of the teams seeded one-four have advanced to conference semi-finals, which included 2006, when not one team survived the opening round. While most would agree that is unlikely to happen, little doubt an upset or two and long series’ are expected to be the norm. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) San Jose vs (8) Anaheim

It’s not like San Jose doesn’t know the drill, another successful regular season and this year they won the President’s Trophy for having the best record, great, super, whatever, how will the Sharks do in the Stanley Cup playoffs. San Jose has been as good as any team in NHL the last five seasons and the furthest point of advancement is one conference final, not close to good enough. For San Jose, they need to play like real sharks, be coldly efficient, spot the prey and go in for the kill. That is not the mentality of this team, which is why they brought in six players who all have Cup jewelry. San Jose has dynamic power play, ranked third and goalie Evgeni Nabokov is just the sixth backstop to post back to back 40+ win seasons, though is 30-27 in the postseason.

San Jose drew a brutal opening assignment as the top seed in Anaheim. This is the first All-Cali postseason matchup in four decades and the Ducks fly into the playoffs with 13-3 record if you throw after Game 82 after clinching. Anaheim isn’t the same team that won the Cup two years ago; however the roster is still dotted with many of the same stars like Chris Pronger, Francois Beauchemin, Teemu Selanne and the Niedermayer brothers. Many of the flock from these Ducks are wily vets and they won’t fold under pressure.

The Sharks were league best 32-5-4 at the HP Pavilion, but will face hated division rival Anaheim, who buzzed to 7-0-2 close on the road. San Jose won four of six meetings and the road team won last three conflicts. Joe Thornton’s team is 9-3 at home against teams with winning road record, but the Ducks have taken last four of five away from home. This should be a wonderfully played and excruciating series out west.

Pick- San Jose (-290) in seven

(2) Detroit vs (7) Columbus

For those that can’t stand all the success Detroit has enjoyed for years, the Red Wings drawing playoff newbie Columbus is a sickening feeling. Detroit won 50 or more games for the fourth consecutive campaign and has more talent and depth than a typical party at the Playboy Mansion. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are exceptional playmakers and nobody is more frustrating to play than Detroit as they can play “keep away” with the puck. Each year the goaltending is brought up, yet Chris Osgood knows how to elevate his game or Ty Conklin is capable. Thou the Wings closed the season an untidy 2-6, they still are Detroit.

Columbus players trusted coach Ken Hitchcock and he helped direct them to first ever playoff appearance. The Blue Jackets are unknown to even hockey fans, but captain Rick Nash is a keeper, having netted 40 goals and still only 24 and goalie Steve Mason is just 20 and bagged 33 wins with 2.25 goals against average. Mason and his line-mates are going to have to be on high alert, facing the challenge of the league’s best power play in Detroit.

Detroit won’t have an easy time trying to keep the Stanley Cup in Hockey-town, as they have been more inconsistent this season. The weaknesses they have probably won’t manifest themselves against Columbus, who has the worst power play at conversion rate of 12.7 percent. Detroit has won eight off 11 on home ice when interested.

Pick- Detroit (-500) in five

(3) Vancouver vs (6) St. Louis

Picture having to choose between swimsuit hotties Marisa Miller (cheap ploy) or Brooklyn Decker and that gives you an indication how simmering Vancouver and St. Louis have played. The Canucks record on Jan. 31 was 22-20-8 and they were about as close to contending for the Northwest Division as Terrell Owens was to being a Buffalo Bill. Behind the best goaltender in the NHL, Roberto Luongo, Vancouver parlayed his superior play (33-13-7 and nine shutouts) and a wise move by coach Alain Vigneault to 23-7-2 finish. He took Alexandre Burrows and worked him in with the Sedin twins, which placed Ryan Kesler with Mats Sundin and Pavol Demitra. This gave the Canucks two effective scoring lines for the first time in eons.

St. Louis wasn’t exactly playing great hockey at the same time as Vancouver either, being eight games under .500, with youth showing and an inordinate amount of injuries. As the season wore on, the Blues got healthier and this youthful squad, whose top four of six scorers are under 26 years old, found a groove and finished 21-7-6 to earn sixth seed. With all the injuries, this team needed goalie who had courage and have him make “stand on his head” efforts and Chris Mason delivered. Almost three months ago to the day, Mason is 17-6-3, with five posted zeros in net.

Mason is playing as well as Luongo at the moment and the Blues have superior special teams, ranking third in penalty kills and eighth in man-advantage situations. St. Louis has a nice mix of veterans and did win once this year in Vancouver, with the teams splitting four contests. The Canucks have better players, yet their forwards have not been clutch players. With two Cinderella’s meeting, backing the one from Saint Louie.

Pick- St. Louis (+190) in six

(4) Chicago vs (5) Calgary

On Mar. 5, Calgary opened a long road trip with a pair of victories, slowing building lead in the Northwest Division. Since that time, the Flames have flamed-out with 7-11 record and fell all the way to fifth seed. Calgary was fired up to initiate trade for center Olli Jokinen from Phoenix and he and captain Jarome Iginla immediately clicked. Since all the early joy, Jokinen has gone from desert hot to Canada cold, with no goals in 13 contests. Remember when Miikka Kiprusoff was the best goalie you never heard of? Well, he’s slipped considerably the last two seasons to ordinary and the Calgary front office has done little to give Kiprusoff some rest that might restore him.

It’s good for hockey to have Original Six teams in the playoffs and Chicago returns for the first time since 2002, making it five total this season. After years of floundering, the notoriously cheap Blackhawks put money into scouting and have drafted wisely with a nice array of young talent. Chicago has youngsters like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who can strike fear into defenses and GM Dale Tallon brought in gritty vets like Sami Pahlsson, to add experience having championship ring from Anaheim. The Hawks blue-liners are as fast and skilled as any of the teams in the playoffs.

Chicago having the home ice edge has to play relaxed at the United Center, since Blackhawks’ fans will be in full throat. The Hawks are 13-4 against offensive teams averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the second half of the season and crushed Calgary in all four games, outscoring them 19-7. Calgary has lost in the first round each time since making Cup Finals in 2004. They have lost nine of last 11 as visitors and look as fragile as fifth-grader having to make first speech in class.

Pick- Chicago (-150) in seven

Hockey Teams to Bet For or Against

With less than 10 games left in the regular season, NHL teams are battling for playoff positions with fervor. Not all teams are being successful, while others are thriving; making their case they belong in the post-season. Here is what clubs to look for over the next couple of weeks for wagering purposes.

San Jose and Detroit are neck and neck for the best record in the NHL. The Sharks coach Todd McLellan and front office has real dilemma about what to do. Currently, San Jose has eight players injured. Do they try and rest these players to be as ready as possible and sacrifice home ice advantage to Detroit to get healthier or go full throttle and hope they don’t lose these players for a longer period? The schedule is rather favorable for the Sharks, with toughest games against Anaheim and Calgary. Watch the prices on San Jose and play on them, when comfortable.

With Detroit having won seven of last 10, they only have two road games remaining and are in great position to win the Presidents' Trophy (Best overall record). The Red Wings are 26-9 at home and are hoping either goalie Chris Osgood or Ty Conklin comes up big as postseason arrives. Detroit is much like the New York Yankees, meaning large money lines and when losses occur that can take a week to make up for. Still, with the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena, hard to not play them.

Quack, quack, that’s right the Anaheim Ducks are making noise having won six of last seven and for the moment are in the Western playoffs. The Ducks picked a swell time to play well and if they can keep it moving, they’ll make the postseason again. Standing in their way is a formidable group, which includes a pair of home and home contests with San Jose and Edmonton, who have their own motivation.

Carolina and Pittsburgh are flying to the finish, winners of seven of last 10 games. Each club has their sights set on passing Philadelphia, for the coveted home ice in the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes will play four of remaining six games at home, in arguably the loudest building in the NHL, where they have won nine in a row. The only issue is with the road games, both are at New Jersey.

Pittsburgh is starting to look like the team that went to the Stanley Cup a year ago, which suggests the Eastern Conference is in a whole lot of trouble. The Penguins have all their top level players healthy and playing to capabilities. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been scintillating between the pipes. Fleury is 20-10-4 with three shutouts dating to New Year's Day. He has allowed two or fewer goals over at least 60 minutes in 17 of those games. It’s a pretty good bet Pittsburgh is for real.

Montreal is 10-15 since February began and looks like they are in turmoil. The ownership group is bleeding money and wants to sell the storied franchise. The Canadiens are barely hanging on in the East to final playoff slot, which is attributed to defense that is 11th on goals allowed in the conference. After playing next two games at home, Montreal will be on the road four of next five and closes the season back on home ice with Pittsburgh. The Canadiens are fortunate all the other teams fighting for last playoff position are playing as bad or worse than they are, thus they might sneak, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.