The Valley Title Game Preview

The Valley’s postseason tournament has gone according to script, with the top two teams meeting for the champions. Regular season champion Northern Iowa (27-4, 20-10 ATS) has given two defensive clinics, holding Drake and Bradley to each 40 points apiece in winning by 15 and 17 points respectively. The Panthers are 12-6 ATS after holding an opponent to under 60 points this season.

Coming into the tournament, the Panthers were second in the country in fewest points allowed at 58.4 per game and have done nothing to disprove the notion somebody in the NCAA Tournament is going to have to shoot well to beat them.

Northern Iowa is really playing for pride today before a national televised audience on CBS starting at 2:00 Eastern, since they are going to the Big Dance regardless. However, coach Ben Jacobson will talk about pride, winning both the regular season and Arch Madness tournament and having this special group of players be back to back champions. One aspect that won’t discussed but is very much on Jacobson’s mind, knowing with a win, his squad would be a deserving sixth seed based on the fact they have been in the lower echelons of the Top 25 a good portion of the season.

Wichita State (25-8, 13-13 ATS) is not a lock the NCAA Tournament and needs a win to punch their ticket. The Shockers have held off Missouri State and Illinois State for wins and covers and are 10-2 and 7-4 ATS off a spread victory.

For Wichita State to pull the upset, junior J.T. Durley has to avoid foul trouble, something he has not been able to do the last couple of days. The Shockers need his 11.5 points per game and five rebounds and can’t beat UNI with him playing cheerleader on the bench.

Teams are also putting defensive pressure on point guard Clevin Hannah and leading scorer (12.3 PPG) to disrupt Shockers offense and keep him from scoring. Opponents are playing him with bigger guards (Hannah is 5’11 155), using their strength to try to push him around. Hannah has responded by driving to the basket and passing to his big men. Nonetheless, he has 11 points in two games. Wichita State is 7-3 ATS against teams with winning percentage of .600 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Northern Iowa as the favorite and they have split with the Shockers, winning at home 59-56 and losing on the road 60-51, failing to cover in either instance. Wichita State could be the play since the underdog is 11-3 ATS in previous 14 meetings.

The total is important to consider also, since the tourney this season is 5-3 UNDER, which is consistent with the five prior years of 30-15 UNDER.

Missouri Valley Conference Wagering Overview

This will be the first conference of the more prominent mid-majors and they will enjoy a national audience to boot for its championship encounter. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State.

The Favorites

Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa are the defending champs and seek third title since 2004.

Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 and 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.

Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to championship, Illinois State will have to play superior defense like they have been lately and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.

The Long Shots

Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.

Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.

The Numbers

The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.

There have been 11 instances since 2004 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.

Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.

Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

The Outcome

In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.

The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Big East and The Valley have showcase contests

Whenever Pittsburgh and West Virginia matchup up in any competition it is charmingly known as the “Backyard Brawl”. This evening, these bitter rivals will go head to head again, each trying to not fall further behind front-running Villanova in the Big East. In the heartland, the often underrated Missouri Valley will have its top two teams clashing, with Northern Iowa all but creating insurmountable lead with a win or Wichita State climbing with a game with a victory.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia 7:00E

Both of these universities are more well known for football, which would explain why this is just the fourth meeting out of 179-game history that both teams come in ranked. Pittsburgh (16-5, 10-7-2 ATS) has fallen to 22nd in the country, having lost three of four, as their point production has fallen. The Panthers are not an offensive juggernaut to begin with, averaging 67.5 points per game, but in last four outings they are woebegone 62.7 PPG. In their upset loss at South Florida this past Sunday, they missed Jermaine Dixon, a known defender, as Bulls guard Dominique Jones hung 37 on Pitt. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS after playing a road game over the last two seasons.

West Virginia (17-3, 7-12 ATS) was like a movie in their 77-74 win over Louisville. The Mountaineers had a great beginning and ending (outscored the Cardinals 31-4 in those segments) and rather dull in the middle. West Virginia has been very good team all year with the likes of Da’Sean Butler among others; however they have lacked a big man, until now. 6’9 freshman Deniz Kilicli makes his debut after sitting out 20 games for NCAA rules violation and he is the skilled wide body coach Bob Huggins needs, it’s just a matter of changing team chemistry this far down the road. Playing at home will help the Mountaineers who are 32-13 ATS on the own floor off a home win.

West Virginia has reeled off four straight wins and is 6-5 and 4-7 hosting Pittsburgh the last 12 years and is a nine-point favorite at Sportsbook.com. The ‘Teers are 10-1 SU at The Coliseum this season with meager 3-7 ATS mark.

Wichita State at Northern Iowa 8:00E

The Panthers of Northern Iowa (19-2, 15-5 ATS) have been one of the best bets in college basketball all season and have just one loss in the Missouri Valley Conference. That was administered 15 days ago by tonight’s foe Wichita State (19-4, 9-7 ATS), who travels to Cedar Falls. UNI plays at a controlled pace in scoring 64.8 points per game, with very balanced scoring. What makes them challenging club to play is their defense, holding opposing teams to 55.1 points per game on 40 percent shooting. They actually held Wichita State to season long defensive field goal percentage average in 60-51 defeat, but where done in by their own inability to shoot effectively, especially in the first half. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less two consecutive games this season.

The Shockers are a 6.5-point underdog and trail Northern Iowa by two games in the Valley standings. They too spread around the ball for scoring purposes, with top three scorers separated by just one point. Third leading scorer J.T. Durley did most of the damage in last meeting, tallying 19 points. Wichita State is off a 55-54 win at Southern Illinois and is 22-9 ATS in road games after one or more Under’s.

The duo of Adam Koch and Jordan Eglseder is handful for any opponent and the Northern Iowa guards value each possession which is why they are 9-2 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. In the last 12 years the Panthers are 8-3 and 7-4 ATS at the McLeod Center vs. Wichita State.

It Pays to Know NBA Betting and Your State Capitals

I was on a radio station a couple of weeks ago to talk about betting on the National Basketball Association. The host of the show asked me a question which I am sure he wanted to receive a highly intelligent, insightful answer that would be enlightening to his listeners. We then could have an extended discussion going into great detail that would be quite informative.

The radio host asked me, “What is the secret to making money betting the NBA”? Perhaps he was looking for me to talk about predicting team wins using the bell curve method or employing individual player ratings to determine the outcome of key match-ups and how they will affect a game. Or maybe he was looking for a humorous response such as “have Tim Donaghy introduce you to a few of his referee friends”.

Considering his expectations, it was quite deflating to him when I answered, “just pick winners”. There was a pause on the other end as his brain was scrambling for ways he was going to fill twelve minutes of air time until the next commercial break. I assume he was determining whether I was being a smart aleck or if I was just a moron.

I wasn’t trying to be a jerk nor was I giving him a flippant answer. Actually, my response carries a lot of validity. It would have been more accurate if I worded it “bet on winning teams”, but I guess working a couple of summers in a theme park while going to school left me with a habit of giving offhand and glib remarks to thoughtless questions posed by tourists and now, obviously, radio hosts.

The radio interview continued with another dead spot or two. I did finally impress the radio guy when I told him I knew the capitals of all fifty states. He quickly quizzed me asking what was Vermont’s state capital? Not only did I correctly answer Montpelier, but I added the fun fact that with a population of under 9,000 people, it is the smallest capital city in the country. The interview ended with me trying to convince him that the state capital of West Virginia, Charleston, was named after a lively popular dance in the 1920’s.

Back to the initial point though…Let’s take a look at whether betting on winning teams has been profitable in the NBA. Is there a connection between teams winning straight-up and covering the point spread? Do teams that have a higher winning percentage cover the point spread more than teams that lose a fair amount of their games?

One thing about the NBA, as well as the NFL, you normally see many teams closer to .500 in ATS and in Over/Under stats than you do compared to their amateur cohorts. With much smaller leagues, 30 or 32 teams in pro hoops and pro football, and a much smaller degree of differences and variances in style of play, you get more standardization of results and margins.

In college sports you have a wide diversity in talent as well as styles. Depth on college teams is much thinner, in most cases, than it is at the professional level. There is not nearly the drop-off in talent between the first-string and the reserves on an NBA team as there is in, say, the Missouri Valley Conference. Injuries can decimate teams at the amateur level. Look at a team like the Houston Rockets. Last year they frequently played without one or even both of their stars, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, due to injury. Houston still managed the sixth best record in the NBA winning 55 games in the regular season.

Last season in the NBA showed more of a gap between the top ten teams and the bottom ten squads. Each of the past three years the best team won right around 80% of their games straight up. Boston had the best record last year, Dallas in 2006-07, and before that it was Detroit. In the 2005-06 and 2006-07 campaigns, the tenth best record in the NBA regular season was 45-37, 54.9%. Last year Dallas had the tenth best winning percentage with a record of 51-31, 62.2%.

Looking for a correlation between straight-up winning and beating the number, last season the bottom ten teams in straight-up winning percentage contained seven of the ten worst point-spread covering teams. Not one team that finished in the top third in ATS% was in the bottom third in straight-up winning percentage.

The bottom ten teams combined regular season winning percentage was 250-570, 30.49%. Betting on those losing teams last season to win against the spread saw you only winning 44.06% of your wagers, 356-452.

Seven of the top ten teams who covered the point spread last year were also in the ten best overall winning teams. Only one team who was in the bottom third of the league in ATS%, Dallas, had the one of the top ten SU records.

The SU mark of the 2007-08 top ten teams was 561-269, 68.41%. Faithfully betting on these teams gave you a winning ATS slate of 56.07%. So last year, betting on the top ten teams with the best SU record was a very profitable venture.

One thing that you do have to remember is you have bad teams playing other bad teams as well as the top ten teams going against each other. Since there is a winner and a loser in every game, records will be padded on both sides at a .500 rate when a similar caliber team plays each other. I wanted to see if our results from last season, “just betting winners”, was being replicated this season. The quick answer was yes as six of the bottom ten teams against the spread are also in the bottom third of the straight-up winning percentage. Bad teams can cover as evidenced by the worst team in the league, Oklahoma City, 2-19 SU, being in the top ten in covering the number. Charlotte, one of the bottom SU teams, is also in the top ten in ATS records. The problem is these teams are few and far between.

On the contrary, of the ten best SU teams this season, six of those are also in the top ten for winning against the spread. Not one of the bad teams is in the top ten in covering the number.
The gap last year between very good and bad teams was assisted by having a couple of very bad teams. Two and three seasons ago, no team had below a 25% winning percentage. Last year two teams, Oklahoma City (Seattle) and Miami, finished below that mark winning 20 and 15 games respectively. This season is showing even a larger gap with amazingly seven teams with a 25% or lower winning percentage straight up.

In fact, the bottom ten teams right now are winning straight-up at a rate of 25.38%, 50-147, more than five percentage points below last years ten cellar dwellers. They are covering the point spread at a slightly worse pace than last year, 43.88%.

The top third winning teams this year have an impressive combined mark of 142-53, 72.82% SU. They are covering the oddsmaker’s line even better than last year, 57.51%, 111-82. A record which can’t stay this high is Cleveland’s 16-4, 80% ATS tally.

There are betting trends that come and go in sports wagering. A few years ago betting on favorites in the NFL was at an all-time best rate. This year NFL double-digit underdogs are money in the bank. Last year and this season have seen a very profitable NBA trend to just bet on the best ten teams as gauged by their straight-up record and to bet against the worst ten teams. If handicapping NBA games continues to be this easy, I will have a lot of free time on my hands. Maybe even enough time to visit Montpelier, VT, and see that impressive gold dome on the capital building.

Free lancewriter Jim Kruger is a sharp basketball handicapper and state capital expert, who has no idea what he had for lunch.