CBB Favorites have it far from easy

Underdogs ruled the day on Thursday, covering over 58 percent of games played by teams that typically have their contests with lines from oddsmakers. With the stakes increase as the tournaments move along, are the favorites more or less vulnerable as these conflicts move ahead? Here are wagering aspects to consider about tonight’s varied line-up and what might occur for those in the favored position.

Starting in the ACC, Florida State won five of last six contests to move up to third seed in the conference and tries to return to championship game for a second straight year. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites, which is possible dicey situation since they are 8-17 ATS this season, having dropped their last three.

North Carolina State provides the opposition and they are 4-1 SU and ATS in last five games, shooting over 50 percent three different times. The Wolfpack have been ordinary at best again this season with 18-14 record, however off upset of Clemson last night, they own 14-4 ATS record on Friday’s (the ACC doesn’t play on Friday’s in the regular season), which suggests Florida State could have trouble on their hands.

Michigan State might have tied for the Big Ten championship, but those setting the numbers are far from impressed. The Spartans face a Minnesota squad that also failed to meet expectations this campaign with 19-12 record, nonetheless, the Golden Gophers are burying opponents with 5-2 finish and six covers. Minnesota is long and lost twice to Michigan State by six points and one point and realizes who’s to blame.

"Last time we played Michigan State we lost by one point and we made a lot of mistakes in the last four minutes, so I definitely think we can pull off the upset," said Gophers Devoe Joseph.
The Spartans have won eight straight over Minnesota, covering seven of them, but Minny has shot 58 percent or higher in last two games and is 6-0 ATS after a contest where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.

UTEP won its first outright conference title in 23 years and is hardly being rewarded for it in Conference USA. Normally, the league champion plays the earliest game in the quarterfinals, not the C-USA, they had the Miners in the last game of the day and their reward is having to play Tulsa in their home town, about 16 hours after soundly defeating Central Florida 76-54 as 10-point favorites in the first semi-final. "No other tournament in the country is doing that," said Miners coach Tony Barbee.

UTEP has won 16 in a row (10-6 ATS), which included a pair of wins over Tulsa. The Miners are 3.5-point favorites and 7-0 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since last season. The Golden Hurricane will have revenge and partisan crowd in this quasi-home game and Tulsa is 12-3 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick.

Sports Bettors want a Super Tuesday

Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who is off a crushing defeat. College basketball sports bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday.

Spartans claim Michigan as their state

Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed their true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run their record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans despite shooting just 39.3 percent kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beat Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully getting our goals at the end of the year.

The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.

Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament.

“Those are our two options right now.” The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.

ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Meechigan has covered four in a row overall.

Top team hits the road

John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for a team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and they are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.

South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points.

South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.

This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.

Oh how the mighty have fallen

North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight they might be a generous two-point choice in Raleigh against Wolfpack team that actually has better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.

Back for Thursday

After Monday’s poor showing, we came back Tuesday with 3-0 day and look to keep building on that occurrence. No great systems today (80 percent or higher), nonetheless one that is very solid in college hoops at 76 percent. The Top Trend looks in on an ACC team tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – Really sad about Chris Henry. He was always in trouble for one thing or another from his days at West Virginia and it turns out to be just another tragic story.

I keep hearing sports bettors are pounding the Colts, however in the circles I’m traveling everyone is on Jacksonville. Interesting to note several sportsbooks do not want to let go of Indy at -3 and I’m seeing and hearing -125 or -130 on them, which tells me they don’t want Jacksonville at +3.5.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a home team like Troy, who is an offensive team scoring 76 or more points a game, against a defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG, after allowing 90 points or more. Over the last five years this system is 38-12 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) N.C. State is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick like many so-called sharp bettors has Jacksonville tonight.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Saturday's Hot Plate

We’ve been in a slump all week, time to bounce out of it and I believe we have the ammo to do so. We’ll start in the Big Ten with an 85.7 percent Best System. That is followed by a perfect reverse trend at 0-15. Though I actually like the team to win and cover, I’m off it because of the strong angle. Paul Buck has not one but two Free Plays today. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – It drives me crazy when people gloat about be right on a game they were incredibly fortunate to win. Thursday night I had a push with East Carolina and I got emails from people who had West Virginia at -12.5, telling me what a sap I was for having ECU. I guess I am, since I had the correct side for 58 minutes and only a bad bounce that led to interception cost me the cover. You will always find me thanking my lucky stars when I receive luck like that, not bragging because of unusual fortune.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like MEECHIGAN off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of six more, with a winning record on the season. Since 2000, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Saw this earlier this year and still can’t believe it. Penn State is 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is having an exceptional season in college football with 62-39 record (61.3 percent) on all sides and totals. He won’t reveal his top pick (it’s for sale here) but his next two choices are UCLA and N.C. State.

We have a pair of 4* plays (out of 5) that are a Guaranteed Package in college football today. Be a HUGE Winner today!

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley