Magic the favorite in uphill battle

Based on Friday’s accounts of Game 4 between Los Angeles and Orlando, Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy should have been the lead story at the top of every newscast and .com website, since he alone is the reason Orlando failed to tie the series at 2-2 and reportedly killed his team’s chance to be NBA champions. One problem with that thinking, it’s often incorrect. Did Van Gundy error, likely so, he should have had his players foul at almost any point in the final 10.8 seconds, but give Los Angeles a ton of credit, as they perfectly executed out of bounds play that led to Derrick Fisher’s game-tying shot in regulation.

Van Gundy didn’t have the luxury of calling timeout when Jameer Nelson decided to play zone against Fisher at most critical point, in a game known for man defense. Van Gundy played a hunch and he’s being crucified, but let’s not lose sight of another important factor, with 32 seconds remaining in overtime, the score was tied at 91. At that juncture, both teams were still in position to take the game, the Lakers snatched it and the Magic did not.

Van Gundy should be blamed for playing Nelson, when his best option was Rafer Alston, good or bad. It was evident from the first time Nelson took the court in the series, two to three minute stints would be the most useful way to utilize player who hadn’t seen the court in four months. Van Gundy’s trust or lack of in Alston betrayed him and his team fell to 40-12 and 29-23 ATS as home.

Orlando is 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent, but unless they do all the little things (keep in mind everything counts), they won’t improve that record. Reports had Dwight Howard choking for missing two free throws late; however he just reverted to being Superman shooting kryptonite as he had done much of the season. Missing 15 of 37 attempts from the charity stripe will cause almost any team to lose and the 17 turnovers led directly to 16 L.A. points.

The Magic find themselves in this predicament because they failed to match Lakers intensity in second half and scored a grand total of 42 points in last 29 minutes. Orlando is 14-5 ATS when playing with two days rest this season and has to play like a team that is absolutely desperate. Feed the ball into Howard, who must be decisive and go to the basket with authority. When he has the ball for more then two seconds, evil events often occur (seven turnovers in last contest), Howard has to be powerful and demanding.

Van Gundy has to somehow convince Alston he’s his guy (good luck) and get him mentally back into focus. Rashard Lewis is the only player in the Finals that makes Lamar Odom look a bastion of mental rock-solid stability. Wouldn’t you like to know where these players go during games? It appears Lewis should have sugar levels tested frequently throughout any given.

Orlando has again opened as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com to send the series back to other coast, with total at 198.5. The Magic have liked Sunday’s well enough, sporting a 9-3 ATS record and are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 60 percent of their free throws or less this season.

What makes this a challenging wager is the Lakers mindset. They haven’t always brought A-game on the road this postseason. The purple-clad team from L.A. has been a brilliant road underdog, with 11-3 ATS record this season and Kobe Bryant assuredly will have his mad face on, trying to win a championship and not have to share the limelight with a star player of equal status, giving him an argosy of tales and memories to cherish. The Lake Show hasn’t been as profitable on Sunday’s with 3-7 ATS record and is 13-3-1 UNDER on this day of the week.

It will be interesting to watch Van Gundy, does he continue to play his hunches or go more by the book, unless the players execute, either way can be wrong. Game 5 starts at just after 8 Eastern, with the underdog now 8-1 against the spread when these teams compete against one another.

I'm back and so is Game 4 for NBA Finals

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.