Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

Thursday's Top Action

We’ll start Thursday with top notch System is college hoops that is 25-5 ATS. The Top Trend is nearly perfect in the SEC tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today - Last night in a busy college basketball Wednesday, home underdogs were 6-9-1 ATS. Home favorites of 10 or more were pedestrian 5-5 ATS on the college hardwood. In the NBA last evening, the OVER was 8-3.

Check the internet for Lane Kiffin’s press conferences, one leaving Tennessee and the other taking the USC job. Make sure to have the shower running, you’ll need one after listening to him.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against road teams like the Citadel when the line is +3 to -3, who shoot 42 or less percent on the season, against opponent after three straight games allowing a shooting pct. or 40 percent or less. This system pops in at 83.3 percent over 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Mississippi State is 11-1 ATS after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) LCC consensus play on St. Mary's.

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Bowl season ready to roll

All the gifts have been opened and glad tidings shared. The gift cards (the new fruit cake) are stacked to never fit in the wallet and the return receipts are in a nice tidy bundle. For the sports bettor the first six bowl games were like the appetizer trey passed around the last 36 hours, good choices, but it is time to eat. Starting Saturday and for the next eight days, 24 bowl games will be televised to whet the insatiable appetite of even the most piggish of wagering junkie. Without further ado, let get this party started.

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs. Ohio U
Ford Field – Detroit
1:00E ESPN

Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition, as Ohio U. and Marshall meet. The Bobcats (9-4 SU & ATS) are seeking their first 10-win season in 31 years and return to scene where they lost MAC championship to Central Michigan. Marshall (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) is in first bowl since 2004, which wasn’t enough to prevent from coach Mark Snyder being forced to resign. Interim coach Rick Minter takes over as the Thundering Herd look to have first winning campaign in six years.

Marshall was a regular participant in this bowl at the turn of the century making four straight trips. The Thundering Herd is 5-2 SU and ATS as a bowler, however just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS vs. those also playing in bowls. Ohio U. has never won a bowl in three previous tries, falling in the GMAC Bowl in 2007 and losing twice in the 1960’s. The Bobcats split games vs. other bowl teams, with sharp 5-1 ATS mark. The MAC is 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven contests.

Why watch and wager –Ohio is favored by three-points at Bookmaker.com, won three of last four, covered each time and will have regular coach Frank Solich as their leader. Marshall finished 1-3 SU and ATS and will have coach looking for another job at the completion of this bowl game. If Bobcats quarterback Theo Scott has more touchdowns than picks, Ohio is 6-0 SU. The players from Athens are 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive covers this season. Marshall has offensive limitations and feeds running back Darius Marshall (ironic) a load of times, hoping he gets hot vs. ordinary Ohio run D. The Thundering Herd is anything but with 8-22 ATS record having lost two out of last three contests. Motivation is on the side of Ohio, seeking first-ever bowl victory and the most coveted trophy in college football, The Deep Dish Large Pizza (crazy bread included). For geography buffs, these schools are a mere 90 miles apart.

3DW Line – Pick

Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Bank of American Stadium – Charlotte
4:30E ESPN

Charlotte hosts its eighth annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in this bowl and they come in 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-4-1 ATS) looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from ending Cincinnati’s Cinderella season and making a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Coach Dave Wannstedt still has something to sell his team as they could be the first 10-win Pittsburgh squad since Dan Marino wore the blue and gold 28 years ago.

Both teams suffered disappointing season ending losses and North Carolina is 12-14 all-time in bowl matchups, with winning spread record of 10-6-2 ATS. The Tar Heels are 5-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs and were 5-3 and .500 ATS against other bowl squads. Pittsburgh has failed to win or cover last three bowl assignments and is 10-15 and 7-10 ATS in their history. The Panthers are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs. those also playing after the regular season. The Big East is 2-4 ATS in this contest.

Why watch and wager – Difficult bowl game to gauge range of emotions. Pittsburgh could be more chagrined than a Republican about the health care bill and fail to take winnable contest at home against Bearcats. North Carolina has shown more range of emotions than Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes. The Tar Heels started 3-0, lost three of four, won and covered four in a row and filled a diaper at N.C. State. If emotions plays no part, than turnovers have to for North Carolina to win, since their offense isn’t good enough to emerge victorious on its own. The Heels are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. For Pittsburgh, they traded Bourbon Street beads for car parts. The Panthers have to attack with explosive pass catches TE Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin early, which loosens up above average UNC defensive line for diminutive Dion Lewis to scoot thru. Pitt is three-point favorite with total of 44.5, yet is 3-7 ATS when picked by three or fewer points.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
AT&T Park – San Francisco
8:00E ESPN

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC (8-4, 3-9 ATS), as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, but Trojans defense allowed more than 35 points three times after having done so twice prior to this season since Pete Carroll was coach. Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) was inconsistent in their first season under coach Frank Spaziani, but reached a bowl for the 11th straight year despite being picked to finish last in the ACC's Atlantic Division in the league's preseason poll.

This is USC’s first non-BCS bowl game since 2001 and they have spectacular 31-16 all-time bowl mark with 13-12 ATS record. Under coach Carroll, they are 6-2 SU and ATS. One of the few schools that could match the Trojans postseason prowess is Boston College, who saw their eight-game bowl streak snapped last year in the Music City matchup. The Eagles are 13-7 and 10-7 ATS, with 5-3 ATS mark as underdogs. Underdogs are rock solid 5-1 ATS in San Fran and with the total at 44, all three tilts that had totals of 46 or less show underdogs 3-0 SU & ATS.

Why watch and wager – People can’t turn away from car wrecks and mishaps and USC qualifies as both. After seven straight Pac-10 titles and matching number of BCS bids, coach Carroll’s fun-loving crew plays in a converted baseball stadium. No, the Trojans aren’t using Joe McKnight’s Range Rover connection to arrive at AT&T Park and freshman Matt Barkley won’t have important offensive weapons to use once again. USC is 19-6 ATS with two weeks or more to prepare. Boston College also starts a freshman signal caller, he just happens to be 25-year old Dave Shinskie. The Eagles offensive line has to open holes for RB Montel Harris, which sets up WR Rich Gunnell for play-action passes. B.C.’s goal is slow the game down and remind older USC players that this is the Emerald Bowl, not a more prestigious contest. The Eagles are catching seven-points with total at 45 and they are 13-3 as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs.

3DW Line – USC by 5

College Buckets on ESPN2

With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started.

Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2

Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.

Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.

USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2

Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.

Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is 20.5-point favorite and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Here’s the deal, if you bet for or against the Carolina Panthers and lose, it’s your fault, since you’ve been warned. Jake Delhomme has a stranglehold on this franchise and his remarkably inconsistent play has bettors improving Rogaine sales, pulling their hair out.

After Delhomme continued last year’s playoff meltdown by throwing seven interceptions in first three games, all Carolina losses, coach John Fox said the he was his quarterback (since he didn’t have another on the roster that was any better). The Panthers offense live and running backs put a band-aid on the problem by winning three of next four games, and Delhomme actually went three games without a pick.

After last week’s loss to the Jets, it’s clear the “bad” Jake is back. He threw four absolutely lame interceptions against the Jets in 17-6 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. He threw more passes off his back foot against the Flyboys secondary; he actually wore out two heels on his right shoe in 34 pass attempts. In his last two games, Jake is 33-78 for 357 yards and has two TD’s and five picks. His quarterback ratings for those two contests have been 60.3 and 12.7. As stated, you been warned.

If you wondered how 6-5 Jacksonville could possibly attain a winning record, you have plenty of company. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL with a positive record that has allowed more points than they have scored and by a rather large margin (202-255). Don’t expect them to be around come playoff time.

The Arizona and Tennessee contest ended being the betting game of the week. The Titans had largely opened as one-point home favorites and it drifted up to two points by Saturday. Just as the first NFL games were kicking off Sunday, word started filtering out that Kurt Warner was not going to play. That led to a rush of Tennessee money pouring in with many bettors having the Titans as -3 or those who came at game time at -3.5. As we know, Vince Young threw a touchdown on last play of the game and those holding Cardinals tickets lost for the most part, while many Titans backers were hung at -3.5, while those that held -3 or +3 got their money back.

Week 12 of the NFL was the first time in five weeks the favorites had a winning spread record (9-7) and for the fourth time in five weeks, the UNDER was the play overall.

Last Friday was the big shopping day known as Black Friday. For college football bettors who prefer favorites, the term took on another meaning as the chalk was 3-8-1 ATS and for the weekend they were 17-31-1 ATS, their worst showing percentage-wise since Week 5 of last season (16-30-1 ATS).

From an entertainment perspective, rivalry week was awesome and more like it used to be several years ago when underdogs were dependable plays when matched against their biggest rival.

Time to call out Pete Carroll as a hypocrite. After engaging and questioning Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh about going for two-points trying to get to a half a hundred against his Trojans, two weeks later USC threw TD bomb in the last minute to score a needless touchdown in 28-7 win over city rival UCLA. What made it all the more unusual is sometimes word gets to coaches about alumni having large wagers on certain games and they wouldn’t mind if the coach scored one more to make sure the donors are happy. That didn’t appear to be the case here since USC opened at -14, but were bet down quickly from there.

Know your Football Numbers-

Winning as a road underdog in the NFL is a big deal this season. This has been a real confidence booster for these clubs since they are 20-10-2 ATS in next game. We’re seeing a modest resurgence of an old favorite in the NFL, playing on teams off exactly three ATS losses. Their record is 11-6 ATS in 2009 and Seattle could be a potential play, but they had a bye week in the mix, which knocks them out.

My pal Steve Makinen wrote an article recently stating some stats are more dependable than others when addressing the NFL and he mentioned yards per point. Since week 4 (what I use as starting point), teams that were in the top 5 for that week and not playing another team in the same group, are respectable 20-15-1 ATS. Those teams in the bottom five after rocky 6-12 ATS start are 13-6 against the spread. Also of interest, when a bottom five team plays a top five team in YPPT, they are 4-3 ATS, having covered last four. Click here to see this week’s teams.

Turnovers are the one aspect college football bettors can’t truly account for. However, this season there has been one area you can at least receive some help. Teams that have committed five or more turnovers are 24-12-1 ATS if they play the following week and squads that force five or more miscues are 28-19-1 ATS if they play the next weekend.

CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

Trick or Treat CFB Wagering

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Tech’s loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Here’s hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies. Numbers courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia 3:30E CBS

Though this year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party won’t carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn’t have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. “We kind of operate around here on urgency. That’s not something we’re ashamed of,” Meyer said recently. “We’re not playing perfect, and there are times we’re not playing very good at all,” Meyer elaborated. “We’re not on the same planet statistically as last year. I’m not happy where we are at right now.” Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

3DW Line -Florida by 13

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College 3:30E ESPNU

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasn’t stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.’s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

3DW Line – Boston College by 5.5

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

3DWLine – Miami by 2.5

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota 8:00 BTN

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 3

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State 8:00E ABC/GP

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same player’s just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasn’t been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesn’t appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State can’t continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma State’s chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

3DW Line – Texas by 5

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon 8:00E ABC/GP

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kelly’s defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie “Groundhog” with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkley’s confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masoli’s favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregon’s time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

3DW Line - Oregon by 5.5

Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17

It pays to have a great defense in college football

Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, it’s always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, “defense wins championships”. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?

Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. It’s been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.

When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you can’t do better than zero.

Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense don’t have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.

What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I don’t need to read this article to know that. And for the most part I’d agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.

Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Let’s see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.

Total defense is another good method to follow, but don’t buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week won’t hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.

Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporter’s often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.

The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to “points allowed” for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bama’s opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tide’s offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tide’s opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyone’s radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.

The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pa’s with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.

The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.

Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.

In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.

Five Prime Choice College Football Games

The calendar has flipped over to October, which means an emphasis on conference play takes over. Even though the season is roughly just a third of the way over, this week has survival mode written all over it already. In mid-September, USC and Cal has national title implication, now the loser could be through in the Pac-10 race. Michigan State believed they were contender for Big Ten hunt; instead they are searching just for a win. Despite perfect record, LSU has not impressed and likely can’t absorb a loss with Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida still to play. Lane Kiffen’s Tennessee squad is looking for bowl bid and doesn’t want to slip below .500 again. Oklahoma and Miami really don’t want to take on another L, if they want to remain relevant. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan (+3.5, 54.5) at Michigan State BTN 12:00E

The Wolverines (3-1 ATS) leave Ann Arbor for the first time, but at least they are still playing in the state of Michigan. You would have to think Rich Rodriquez team being 4-0 is a minor surprise nationally, though they were favorites in three of them. Kudos to RichRod for adding more speed on both sides of the ball and believing in frosh QB Tate Forcier to run the offense. One overlooked aspect that is less visible is how much better the offensive line plays. All the fancy formations and trickeration is terrific, but unless the big boys up front create running lanes, none of this happens. Meechigan is 3-8 and frightening 1-10 ATS in road opener.

Michigan State (1-2 ATS) fully expected to be no worse than 3-1 coming to this contest, but after Wisconsin loss, they sit at 1-3. The Spartans pass defense has left much to desire and coach Mark Dantonio summed it up best - “We’ve left plays on the field”. With the defense befuddled at present, the offense has to carry the burden. Kirk Cousins has won the quarterback job and the sophomore has been poised much of the time and shown ability to deliver the pigskin on target to Spartan receivers. Michigan State is 0-6-2 ATS in last eight home sandwich encounters.

In this Wolverine State battle, it’s always meant more to the Spartans, being the second-class citizen, especially in football. Last year they broke their six-game losing streak to Michigan and won at the Big House for the first time since 1990. The visitor is 4-1-1 ATS in last six matchups and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS. The Wolverines opened as favorites and have been shifted to underdogs, which makes the dog play all that more interesting, since the hound is 8-2-1 ATS in East Lansing.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 1.5


LSU (-3.5, 50.5) at Georgia CBS 3:30E

Georgia is 2-0 in the SEC and could be a surprise team of sorts with a win over unbeaten LSU. The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) offense has clicked in averaging 37.6 points per game in last three contests, as senior signal caller Joe Cox has settled into comfortable rhythm. Coach Mark Richt believes even better days are ahead. “We’ve been finding a way to keep it exciting,” Richt said. “I’m very thankful for the victory, excited to be 2-0 in the SEC. I don’t think we’ve come close to playing as well as we can.” Defensively, these Bulldogs have no bite, ranked 67th in total defense and even worse 91st against the pass. There soft zone isn’t exactly the Da Vinci code and a lack of pass rush makes it easier to understand than a Ron White joke. Georgia is 10-15-1 ATS in SEC action the last four seasons.

How good is LSU? Were about to find out with three strenuous conference conflicts starting in Athens. The best description of the Tigers (4-0, 1-2-1 ATS) to this point is “workmanlike” and their victory over Washington to start the year was proof. Last week, in spite a 4-0 turnover advantage, LSU needed a goal line stand at Mississippi State to hold off those Bulldogs. LSU’s offense is ranked last in the SEC at 310 yards per game. QB Jordan Jefferson has his moments as passer and LSU does have talent on the perimeter with Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell. The running game has been inconsistent and can’t afford another pathetic performance like last week when they finished with 30 yards. There is no shortage of athletes on defense, however against the two best offenses they’ve faced; LSU has conceded almost 25 points per game. The Tigers are 20-14-1 ATS on the SEC road the last nine years, but 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers.

Under coach Miles, the Tigers are 9-24-3 ATS in league play and are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Georgia. Last year’s 14-point win was the largest over LSU in five decades. The Bulldogs have struggled with teams sporting 75 percent or higher win percentage, with 3-14 ATS mark. LSU does have history on their side after running the ball so poorly, being 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

3DWLine –Georgia by 4

Auburn (+2.5, 52) at Tennessee ESPN 7:45E

Don’t look for another boring 14-12 game like last season when these teams met. Last year, over two-thirds of the drives (29 total) between Auburn and Tennessee were four plays or fewer, making viewers yawn incessantly. The Tigers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) high-powered offense is averaging 45.2 points per game, with over 526 total yards. It’s a great story of character, as QB Chris Todd has overcome last year’s problems and thrived in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s new offense. In the only above average offense the Auburn defense faced, they struggled (30 points allowed). Tennessee doesn’t necessarily present the same issues that West Virginia exposed. However, if Jonathan Crompton tosses more errant passes, the Tigers have real ball-hawks that will pick them off. This is Auburn’s initial road contest and they are 10-3 ATS in this spot.

Tennessee (2-2 ATS) is back to .500 after outlasting Ohio U 34-23. Coach Lane Kiffin would kill to have a better option than Crompton under center, but he doesn’t. Crompton makes terrible decisions and often worse throws that lead to interceptions. Kiffin has placed the offense in the hands of the offensive line and running backs, trying to give his club the best chance to win. No such issues on the defensive side where safety Eric Berry leads a scrappy contingent that gives its all. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin wants his guys to be more disciplined in third down situations, as the two BCS teams the Vols have played are converting almost 50 percent. Tennessee is 6-13-1 ATS hosting SEC opponents.

Being in opposite SEC divisions, these teams don’t play one another frequently. Auburn has won last four meetings (2-2 ATS), with previous loss to Tennessee coming in 1999. The underdog has covered the spread the last three, with the Volunteers 5-1 ATS in orange uniforms. Timing is everything and the Volunteers are 10-22 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 1.5

Oklahoma (-7.5, 49.5) at Miami ABC-GP 8:00 ABC

Coach Randy Shannon has taken what appeared to be impossible situation and turned into a positive. Miami’s (2-1 SU&ATS) first four games were the most challenging in college football. If they can upset Oklahoma this week, this would mark the return of the importance of the “U” in college football. Jacory Harris has blossomed as sophomore in offensive scheme that suits his abilities. What’s most impressive about Harris’ growth is his football IQ, completing passes to everyone but the ball boy, with a dozen different receivers catching his tosses. Running back Kraig Cooper continues to be a versatile performer, sparking the offense where needed. The defensive line is tougher than the bouncers at The Mansion at Miami Beach. The Hurricanes however are 7-11 ATS at home against Top 25 clubs.

Oklahoma (2-1 SU&ATS) wanted to make sure it was prepared and had a bye week, which was to supposed to benefit Heisman winner Sam Bradford, but coach Bob Stoops is saying that Landry Jones will be his starting quarterback. After the BYU loss, the offense has gotten back in gear and the defense has played at the level most expected before the season began, hanging a couple of zeros on the scoreboard against Idaho State and Tulsa. Coach Stoops has praised the offensive line for opening bigger holes for runners Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS off a win and playing non-conference foe.

If Miami (2-1 SU&ATS) thought they saw a lot of pressure in being overwhelmed by Virginia Tech defense, wait till they see the Sooners’ defenders. Oklahoma laid it on Miami 51-13 two years ago in Norman as 11-point favorites and is 28-5 (7-8 ATS) against all current ACC squads. Boomer Sooner is 10-2 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards (45-0 over Tulsa) and 8-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Miami returns to Landshark Stadium 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Hurricanes only loss to present Big 12 teams was to the Sooners; otherwise they are 8-0 SU and ATS. The last time Oklahoma faced the Canes in Miami was the 1988 Orange Bowl when they lost 20-14, ending a perfect season.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 9.5

USC (-4.5, 46.5) at California ABC-GP 8:00E

This isn’t the kind of game USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) has a problem getting up for and playing their best, however a deeper question exists beyond all the quarterback chatter. What’s the deal with the rest of the Trojans? The offensive line is supposed to be great, thus far that’s very debatable except in spurts. The defense has a ton of talent, but needs the vocal leadership of Taylor Mays as a rallying point, especially in times of adversity. Could the quarterback play be better, of course it, yet the fact remains these are 18 and 19 year olds and no matter what kind of uniform they where, they are going to have rough spots and it’s up to their teammates to step it up and help whoever is under center. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS as 3.5-10-point road favorites.

Off the blowout loss to Oregon, this is the defining game that will tell the story of the Cal Bears (3-1, SU&ATS) in 2009. Forget USC’s Washington State triumph, the Trojans haven’t looked this vulnerable early in the season since Pete Carroll’s first year in 2001. Coach Jeff Tedford knows he has the better quarterback in Kevin Riley and the best running back in Jahvid Best coming into this matchup. The Trojans might have better overall personnel on defense, but with players like defensive end Tyson Alualu and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal can certainly compete, especially if they can control the USC running game. The Bears are 9-4 ATS at Berkeley against ranked opponents.

This Strawberry Canyon collision takes on completely different significance with each team having a Pac-10 loss. The loser at best is looking at Holiday Bowl as most reachable goal from this juncture, not exactly soul-stirring when dreaming of national title chase. Confidence will be extremely important, since both will take shots and how they react will figure into the outcome.

California is 8-0 ATS at home the last two years, but the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in this anticipated Pac-10 tilt. With California 1-7 and 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings and the Trojans 5-16 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, survivor gear required.

3DW Line – Cal by 4.5