Back to Business Sunday

Sorry I missed everyone yesterday; to make a long story short, my daughter lives in Hawaii, which caused a few anxious moments early in the day and ended up going to the Phoenix Open. I decided it was better to do nothing than a poor job.

Speaking of poor, that’s what we were Friday at just 1-3, so let’s make this a bounce back day. Have a terrific system play that is 87.5 percent in the ACC and found a strong Top Trend in the NBA. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday – The Phoenix Open is easily the craziest golf tournament on the PGA Tour. 30,000+ people at the 16th hole cheering all the time, while downing a few(?) adult beverages. Large groups of people dressed in similar fashion (about 30 people were all dressed in various forms of yellow and white) moving around as group. In all, fun to watch, even the golf.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Virginia, who are average three-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent) against a good three-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or worse. This is really a superb system at 28-4 ATS, 87.5 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The L.A. Clippers are 2-13 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Steve from the LCC really is good with Western Region teams in all sports and tells me UC-Davis is the play.

Betting Options for NBA Draft

It’s nothing short of amazing how drafts in various sports have become a cottage industry onto themselves. The next one of importance is in the NBA. The fine folks of ESPN will have enough visible personnel during its broadcast of who is going where in professional basketball, they could invade Malta. They will tell the story of what happens, while you can turn into recreational sports bettor and play along making prop bets on the various happenings. Here’s hoping Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have another on-screen argument and what to look for from the draft.

Most NBA experts that follow the draft believe this could be one of the craziest and most entertaining nights of professional basketball, without one center jump. Speaking to an avid NBA bettor and one who follows the game 24/7, he points to organizational philosophies making the difference. “One player can turn a NBA franchise around. The Bulls took Derrick Rose, in the playoffs with brighter future. It comes down to front office types making shrewd decisions. Take the right player, fortunes will rise; take the wrong player, Hello lottery again.”

One wretched franchise that can change what has become a way of life is the Los Angeles Clippers. They have the first pick and the world expects them to take Blake Griffin. He has the look and determination of a player who COULD (not will) lead the Clips out of the NBA abyss. The Clippers might be wise to sign his brother Taylor as free agent and keep him on the team as 12th man and have Blake be happier to start his NBA career.

From here, the NBA water gets a littler murky, though certain things should happen. (Picks based on current slots as of writing)

Player to get Drafted First from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hasheem Thabeet -350
James Harden +225

This is not as easy as it looks since Memphis would prefer to move out of No. 2 slot. Thabeet is the obvious choice to build with A.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, however questions surround how good a defender and rebounder he will be a next level. Harden is actually a more proven commodity, but might be too similar to Mayo and appears to have less upside than Thabeet. The Grizzlies want to believe they are getting the real deal and not taking the next Andrew Bogut. Play Thabeet.

Stephen Curry -200
Johnny Flynn +155

Curry is the correct choice; nevertheless, as mentioned, different front offices are not always in sync. Sacramento has the fourth pick and wants a point guard. Depending on the day, time or if the humidity is a little higher in Sac-Town, the Kings have professed to like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Flynn and Brandon Jennings name has started popping up. In the end, Sacramento takes Evans based on last impression and Curry goes to Minnesota, ahead of Flynn.

Tyler Hansbrough -300
Chase Budinger +200

Going to play the dog here with Budinger and here’s why. When it comes down to it, Hansbrough’s lack of athletic ability will scare teams off, in spite of toughness which many teams could use. (I’m hoping Charlotte doesn’t screw this up) The absolute perfect place for Hansbrough to flourish to start professional career is Utah, which has 20th pick. Though Budinger isn’t all that well liked with many GM’s believing he is nearly finished product, the Philadelphia 76ers need players that can shoot, which is the former volleyball player’s greatest strength. Granted, Philly needs a point guard for aging before your eyes Andre Miller at No. 17, nonetheless having player off the bench to score immediately is more pressing need.

Wayne Ellington -140
DaJaun Summers Even

This is a hard play to make, since it becomes about need. A team like Atlanta could use another outside shooter, which Ellington is. Though there are reservations about his ability to put the ball on the deck and create, as a spot-up shooter, as good as you will find in the draft. Summers is a fit for a team like Memphis looking for size and is interchangeable at three or four spot. A smallish play on Ellington because he can make shots and Summers has been more unreliable.

Brandon Jennings -110
Jrue Holiday -130

Any NBA General Manager only has to think back to Sebastian Telfair, when considering Brandon Jennings. If I lose this wager, will call up offending team and ask them to bet me double or nothing which player has better NBA career.

Darren Collison (UCLA) - When Will He be Drafted (1st or 2nd Round)

First –Even
Second -140

Collison goes in the first round, with Oklahoma City and Portland as possible destinations. I would shocked if the Lakers took him at #29 since they already have one UCLA point guard with marginal ability in Jordan Farmar.

DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -160
15th or later +120

Though his knees are a concern to potential suitors, Blair’s crew has supplied the right information about his health and his stock has risen as much as anyone’s. Top 14 choices New Jersey and Indiana make the most sense for the big man. Bet the -160.

Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -170
15th or later +130

Henderson got better each season at Duke, proving he’s willing to do what it takes to be a pro. With too many attitude players with potentially bigger upsides having egos already that of superstar, having the chance to pick more level-headed player has to make lottery teams like Toronto or Charlotte pleased. Take the -170.

Ty Lawson (North Carolina) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice +120
15th or later -160

Lawson could go to Pacers early, but his lack of size and potential problematic ability to find clear shots have him falling out of the first 14 selections.

DeMar DeRozan (USC) - Over/Under Draft Position

Over 10.5 -Even
Under 10.5 -140

This is the perfect example why GM’s and coaches can’t sleep nights. DeRozan has Top 5 ability, nobody questions that. At USC as a freshman, he showed his brilliance and lack of maturity almost evenly. There are genuine concerns about his true readiness at this level. Toronto at No.9 is the team most in need of his skills, however, DeRozan has made it known he’s not cool about the idea of playing north of the border. Take the Over.

Number of North Carolina players chosen in first round

One - +600
Two - +200
Three – minus 200
Four - +800

The Tar Heels are the national champions and will get the respect they likely deserve and will have three players chosen in the first round, all who have been mentioned already, leaving no need to be redundant as to who they are.

NBA Systems in Absurd Contest

There are lovable dogs, ugly dogs, mean dogs and yappy dogs that never shut-up, barking all the time. The NBA has a couple of mutts in the Western Conference, the L.A. Clippers and Memphis, with very little to love about either of these two squads. On Friday night, these two putrid clubs will meet, which begs the question, why would 3Daily Winners take up valuable time and space to showcase these two dowdy dogs?

Before that question is answered directly, let’s take a brief look at each team. (Don’t worry, it won’t take long) The Los Angeles Clippers are easy fodder for Jay Leno on nightly basis. Their latest losing streak has reached seven games, losing by 20.2 points per game. This is game five of seven in what has to seem like a road trip that started last year. The Clippers are 5-19 as visitors and are 11-13 against the spread.

All these blowouts aren’t good for any team’s confidence and that shows up for the Clips who are 3-14 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more this season. This doesn’t mean it is all for naught, especially when Memphis is the opposition. The Grizzlies have actually won two games in a row (who said pigs don’t fly); with the latter two days ago against a good Houston club 104-93, as six-point home underdogs.

This could actually work to the Clippers advantage and here is why.

Play Against home teams off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses.

Teams like Los Angeles have benefited in this position to the tune of 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent.

In fairness, the league’s worst run franchise and possibly the worst in all of sports can’t have it come that easy. As an NBA writer said years ago, if the Clippers ever won the NBA championship, the champagne would probably be tainted and all the players would end up dying in the celebration.

Believe it or not, Memphis also fits an incredible system that is just a little less potent, but can place the sports bettor on the right side of the action. The Grizzlies on Monday ended a losing streak that reached a dozen (remarkably 0-12 ATS also), taking out the ugliest dog in the Eastern Conference, Washington 113-97. With the victory over the Rockets, that marked the first time Memphis has won back to back games by double digits since the final three games of the 2006-07 season. (Holy Cow!)

This in turn shines the light on the Grizzlies as system play on team too.

Play On home teams off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, against opponent off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.

This beautiful situation also is in the rarified air of 82.8 percent with 24-5 ATS mark since 1996.

Bookmaker.com has Memphis as 5.5-point favorites and not because they are 4-13 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.

If you are confused about which system is the better to play, consider the matchup, which tells you everything you need to know.

Sunday Best from 3Daily Winners

I know its sour grapes, but I hated to see the refs help decide the Colts and Chargers game. I’m not saying any of the penalties were bad calls, but if is close; let the players on the field decide the game, not the guys with hankies. In all honesty would have felt the same way if I had picked San Diego, having thought I was extremely lucky. What are your thoughts?

Hats off to UW-Milwaukee, who made two trips to Chicago this week for conference games and came away winners both times and gave us a system loss for a 2-1 day. Today we have a rare money line college basketball play. Besides it being right over 90 percent of the time, you can read the rest to understand why I choose it. Sal from the LCC continues his run in the NFL and offers another Free play today. Today’s Top Trend follows the always amusing exploits of the Clippers. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites vs. the money line like UC-Riverside, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, being a good team, winning 60-80 percent or more of their games on the season. This money line system is an extremely productive play at 137-15, 90.1 percent. I can recommend a play like this since the money line is not heavy at -140.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Clippers are 4-16 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last two years.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal from the Left Coast Connection is now on 16-3 run in the NFL, with Arizona winner here and the Under on Indy and San Diego last night. Today he rides Miami at +3.5.

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Betting Material for Monday

It was a mixed bag of sorts for 3Daily Winners with a 1-2 day in the NFL Sunday and 2-3 record on the week. We ended up with four of five Winners in college football and a good week overall totaling everything up. Spoke to Kendall last night, he’s lost his best play two weeks in a row here, but keeps on winning in the NFL. He ended up 3-1, with winners on Green Bay, Cincinnati and New England, losing with the Browns. He’s still hard to comprehend 31-7. Though not an official play, we offer up a 78 percent system for Monday night. Our Top Trend is pure perfection in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. (they’ll cut themselves with their own) Clippers are 0-11 ATS revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Very interesting dynamic going tonight. The Left Coast Connection has 21 members playing tonight's Monday Night game, 13 on Washington and 8 on Pittsburgh. What makes this thought provoking is 10 of the 13 are making money betting in the NFL this season. Six of the 8 who are on the Steelers are losing money at present wagering in the NFL. Like I said, interesting.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.