This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets. (We all know who
Ashley Judd likes)
This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.
My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.
In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.
I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.
Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.
Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.
Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.
The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.
No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.
Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams – Kansas Maryland Ohio State Georgetown
West Regional Round 1 Betting Preview
Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.
They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.
UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?
Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.
The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.
BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.
Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.
Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.
West Region Sweet 16 teams –Syracuse Murray State Kansas State Pittsburgh
South Regional Round 1 Betting Preview
It’s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.
For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can’t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.
Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog.
Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.
Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation’s capital.
Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary’s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary’s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.
The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.
Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.
South Region Sweet 16 teams –Duke Texas A&M Villanova Baylor
East Regional Round 1 Betting Preview
Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.
Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?
Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.
In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.
West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).
This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.
New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.
The Pac-10 was in danger as recently as three weeks ago of only sending one team to the tournament, when Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) started playing like the team the pre-season publications forecasted. The Huskies have won eight of nine and seven in a row, becoming Pac-10 champions, winning the post-season tourney. The complete turnaround has happened by being mentally tougher away from Seattle, having won six straight (5-1 ATS). They will face similar Marquette (22-11, 17-10 ATS) club that can also motor and is a two-point favorite. This contest involves two star players not everyone is familiar with, Lazar Hayward of the Golden Eagles and Quincy Pondexter of Washington and that alone is reason to watch.
East Region Sweet 16 teams –Kentucky Temple West Virginia Washington
The field of 64 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the “home run” wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.
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