ACC 2010 Football Betting Preview

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the pre-season Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.

Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).

And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.

It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9)

CLEMSON – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)

FLORIDA STATE - *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)

MARYLAND – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish.
PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)

WAKE FOREST – 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)

Coastal Division

DUKE – 9 / 6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)

GEORGIA TECH – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)

MIAMI, FLA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)

NORTH CAROLINA – *10 / 9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives.
PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)

VIRGINIA – *6 / 7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8 / 5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)

Order a copy of Marc's outstanding magazine at Playbook.com.

Wednesday Sports Action

A 1-2 off night saw Cleveland fall in our system play, which directly related to the Cavs allowing 100 points (see related article below) and failing to cover. Tonight’s Best System returns to the NBA with the look of a winner at 85.3 percent. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the A-10 and the LCC will have free play shortly trying to continue winning ways. Good Luck

What I thought last night – It’s not every night you fail to cover a single digit spread in college basketball when your team was leading by 17 points in the second half, but Miami-Fl went on to lose the game outright. I also had a loser on Alabama, thinking they would be fired up to favored Tennessee, instead the Crimson Tide players and fans were as about as emotional as if they were playing Tennessee State.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Orlando, a good shooting team (45.5-47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game). This system checks in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent including 6-1 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte 49ers are 0-12 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC takes the Charlotte Bobcats as top play.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4

Trick or Treat CFB Wagering

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Tech’s loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Here’s hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies. Numbers courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia 3:30E CBS

Though this year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party won’t carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn’t have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. “We kind of operate around here on urgency. That’s not something we’re ashamed of,” Meyer said recently. “We’re not playing perfect, and there are times we’re not playing very good at all,” Meyer elaborated. “We’re not on the same planet statistically as last year. I’m not happy where we are at right now.” Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

3DW Line -Florida by 13

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College 3:30E ESPNU

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasn’t stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.’s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

3DW Line – Boston College by 5.5

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

3DWLine – Miami by 2.5

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota 8:00 BTN

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 3

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State 8:00E ABC/GP

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same player’s just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasn’t been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesn’t appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State can’t continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma State’s chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

3DW Line – Texas by 5

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon 8:00E ABC/GP

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kelly’s defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie “Groundhog” with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkley’s confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masoli’s favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregon’s time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

3DW Line - Oregon by 5.5

Five Prime Choice College Football Games

The calendar has flipped over to October, which means an emphasis on conference play takes over. Even though the season is roughly just a third of the way over, this week has survival mode written all over it already. In mid-September, USC and Cal has national title implication, now the loser could be through in the Pac-10 race. Michigan State believed they were contender for Big Ten hunt; instead they are searching just for a win. Despite perfect record, LSU has not impressed and likely can’t absorb a loss with Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida still to play. Lane Kiffen’s Tennessee squad is looking for bowl bid and doesn’t want to slip below .500 again. Oklahoma and Miami really don’t want to take on another L, if they want to remain relevant. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan (+3.5, 54.5) at Michigan State BTN 12:00E

The Wolverines (3-1 ATS) leave Ann Arbor for the first time, but at least they are still playing in the state of Michigan. You would have to think Rich Rodriquez team being 4-0 is a minor surprise nationally, though they were favorites in three of them. Kudos to RichRod for adding more speed on both sides of the ball and believing in frosh QB Tate Forcier to run the offense. One overlooked aspect that is less visible is how much better the offensive line plays. All the fancy formations and trickeration is terrific, but unless the big boys up front create running lanes, none of this happens. Meechigan is 3-8 and frightening 1-10 ATS in road opener.

Michigan State (1-2 ATS) fully expected to be no worse than 3-1 coming to this contest, but after Wisconsin loss, they sit at 1-3. The Spartans pass defense has left much to desire and coach Mark Dantonio summed it up best - “We’ve left plays on the field”. With the defense befuddled at present, the offense has to carry the burden. Kirk Cousins has won the quarterback job and the sophomore has been poised much of the time and shown ability to deliver the pigskin on target to Spartan receivers. Michigan State is 0-6-2 ATS in last eight home sandwich encounters.

In this Wolverine State battle, it’s always meant more to the Spartans, being the second-class citizen, especially in football. Last year they broke their six-game losing streak to Michigan and won at the Big House for the first time since 1990. The visitor is 4-1-1 ATS in last six matchups and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS. The Wolverines opened as favorites and have been shifted to underdogs, which makes the dog play all that more interesting, since the hound is 8-2-1 ATS in East Lansing.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 1.5


LSU (-3.5, 50.5) at Georgia CBS 3:30E

Georgia is 2-0 in the SEC and could be a surprise team of sorts with a win over unbeaten LSU. The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) offense has clicked in averaging 37.6 points per game in last three contests, as senior signal caller Joe Cox has settled into comfortable rhythm. Coach Mark Richt believes even better days are ahead. “We’ve been finding a way to keep it exciting,” Richt said. “I’m very thankful for the victory, excited to be 2-0 in the SEC. I don’t think we’ve come close to playing as well as we can.” Defensively, these Bulldogs have no bite, ranked 67th in total defense and even worse 91st against the pass. There soft zone isn’t exactly the Da Vinci code and a lack of pass rush makes it easier to understand than a Ron White joke. Georgia is 10-15-1 ATS in SEC action the last four seasons.

How good is LSU? Were about to find out with three strenuous conference conflicts starting in Athens. The best description of the Tigers (4-0, 1-2-1 ATS) to this point is “workmanlike” and their victory over Washington to start the year was proof. Last week, in spite a 4-0 turnover advantage, LSU needed a goal line stand at Mississippi State to hold off those Bulldogs. LSU’s offense is ranked last in the SEC at 310 yards per game. QB Jordan Jefferson has his moments as passer and LSU does have talent on the perimeter with Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell. The running game has been inconsistent and can’t afford another pathetic performance like last week when they finished with 30 yards. There is no shortage of athletes on defense, however against the two best offenses they’ve faced; LSU has conceded almost 25 points per game. The Tigers are 20-14-1 ATS on the SEC road the last nine years, but 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers.

Under coach Miles, the Tigers are 9-24-3 ATS in league play and are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Georgia. Last year’s 14-point win was the largest over LSU in five decades. The Bulldogs have struggled with teams sporting 75 percent or higher win percentage, with 3-14 ATS mark. LSU does have history on their side after running the ball so poorly, being 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

3DWLine –Georgia by 4

Auburn (+2.5, 52) at Tennessee ESPN 7:45E

Don’t look for another boring 14-12 game like last season when these teams met. Last year, over two-thirds of the drives (29 total) between Auburn and Tennessee were four plays or fewer, making viewers yawn incessantly. The Tigers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) high-powered offense is averaging 45.2 points per game, with over 526 total yards. It’s a great story of character, as QB Chris Todd has overcome last year’s problems and thrived in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s new offense. In the only above average offense the Auburn defense faced, they struggled (30 points allowed). Tennessee doesn’t necessarily present the same issues that West Virginia exposed. However, if Jonathan Crompton tosses more errant passes, the Tigers have real ball-hawks that will pick them off. This is Auburn’s initial road contest and they are 10-3 ATS in this spot.

Tennessee (2-2 ATS) is back to .500 after outlasting Ohio U 34-23. Coach Lane Kiffin would kill to have a better option than Crompton under center, but he doesn’t. Crompton makes terrible decisions and often worse throws that lead to interceptions. Kiffin has placed the offense in the hands of the offensive line and running backs, trying to give his club the best chance to win. No such issues on the defensive side where safety Eric Berry leads a scrappy contingent that gives its all. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin wants his guys to be more disciplined in third down situations, as the two BCS teams the Vols have played are converting almost 50 percent. Tennessee is 6-13-1 ATS hosting SEC opponents.

Being in opposite SEC divisions, these teams don’t play one another frequently. Auburn has won last four meetings (2-2 ATS), with previous loss to Tennessee coming in 1999. The underdog has covered the spread the last three, with the Volunteers 5-1 ATS in orange uniforms. Timing is everything and the Volunteers are 10-22 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 1.5

Oklahoma (-7.5, 49.5) at Miami ABC-GP 8:00 ABC

Coach Randy Shannon has taken what appeared to be impossible situation and turned into a positive. Miami’s (2-1 SU&ATS) first four games were the most challenging in college football. If they can upset Oklahoma this week, this would mark the return of the importance of the “U” in college football. Jacory Harris has blossomed as sophomore in offensive scheme that suits his abilities. What’s most impressive about Harris’ growth is his football IQ, completing passes to everyone but the ball boy, with a dozen different receivers catching his tosses. Running back Kraig Cooper continues to be a versatile performer, sparking the offense where needed. The defensive line is tougher than the bouncers at The Mansion at Miami Beach. The Hurricanes however are 7-11 ATS at home against Top 25 clubs.

Oklahoma (2-1 SU&ATS) wanted to make sure it was prepared and had a bye week, which was to supposed to benefit Heisman winner Sam Bradford, but coach Bob Stoops is saying that Landry Jones will be his starting quarterback. After the BYU loss, the offense has gotten back in gear and the defense has played at the level most expected before the season began, hanging a couple of zeros on the scoreboard against Idaho State and Tulsa. Coach Stoops has praised the offensive line for opening bigger holes for runners Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS off a win and playing non-conference foe.

If Miami (2-1 SU&ATS) thought they saw a lot of pressure in being overwhelmed by Virginia Tech defense, wait till they see the Sooners’ defenders. Oklahoma laid it on Miami 51-13 two years ago in Norman as 11-point favorites and is 28-5 (7-8 ATS) against all current ACC squads. Boomer Sooner is 10-2 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards (45-0 over Tulsa) and 8-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Miami returns to Landshark Stadium 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Hurricanes only loss to present Big 12 teams was to the Sooners; otherwise they are 8-0 SU and ATS. The last time Oklahoma faced the Canes in Miami was the 1988 Orange Bowl when they lost 20-14, ending a perfect season.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 9.5

USC (-4.5, 46.5) at California ABC-GP 8:00E

This isn’t the kind of game USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) has a problem getting up for and playing their best, however a deeper question exists beyond all the quarterback chatter. What’s the deal with the rest of the Trojans? The offensive line is supposed to be great, thus far that’s very debatable except in spurts. The defense has a ton of talent, but needs the vocal leadership of Taylor Mays as a rallying point, especially in times of adversity. Could the quarterback play be better, of course it, yet the fact remains these are 18 and 19 year olds and no matter what kind of uniform they where, they are going to have rough spots and it’s up to their teammates to step it up and help whoever is under center. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS as 3.5-10-point road favorites.

Off the blowout loss to Oregon, this is the defining game that will tell the story of the Cal Bears (3-1, SU&ATS) in 2009. Forget USC’s Washington State triumph, the Trojans haven’t looked this vulnerable early in the season since Pete Carroll’s first year in 2001. Coach Jeff Tedford knows he has the better quarterback in Kevin Riley and the best running back in Jahvid Best coming into this matchup. The Trojans might have better overall personnel on defense, but with players like defensive end Tyson Alualu and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal can certainly compete, especially if they can control the USC running game. The Bears are 9-4 ATS at Berkeley against ranked opponents.

This Strawberry Canyon collision takes on completely different significance with each team having a Pac-10 loss. The loser at best is looking at Holiday Bowl as most reachable goal from this juncture, not exactly soul-stirring when dreaming of national title chase. Confidence will be extremely important, since both will take shots and how they react will figure into the outcome.

California is 8-0 ATS at home the last two years, but the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in this anticipated Pac-10 tilt. With California 1-7 and 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings and the Trojans 5-16 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, survivor gear required.

3DW Line – Cal by 4.5

Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.

ACC Affair in College Football Thursday

Miami is going to need every one of the nine days off to get ready for Georgia Tech after thriller in Tallahassee, outlasting Florida State 38-34 as six point underdogs. Quarterback Jacory Harris was magnificent throwing for 386 yards and running back Kraig Cooper was a versatile all-around performer in running the ball, catching passes and returning kicks. The defense gave up 404 yards and was especially vulnerable to routes over the middle 10-18 yards down the field.

However, coach Randy Shannon is going to leave the details for the practice field and focus in on the bigger picture. “I’m confident in this football team,” Shannon said. “From what we had to go through three years ago to where we’re at now, it’s a totally different team, totally different mentality.”

The 20th ranked Hurricanes can further enhance their image of yesteryear with a win over No. 14 Georgia Tech Thursday night at LandShark Stadium. Miami has spent a great deal of practice time on improving all areas of special teams, which could described as giving the “golden parachute” of field position, as they allowed the Seminoles average starting at its own 43-yard line following Canes kicks, and three times started drives on Miami’s side of the 50. Miami is only 6-13-1 ATS off a straight up win.

For their home opener, the Hurricanes will have to play assignment football to control Georgia Tech’s option and they are 12-1 on Thursday night’s with cheerless 4-8 ATS record.

This will be the Yellow Jackets second straight Thursday encounter after surviving against Clemson last week 30-27 as five-point favorites. This is Georgia Tech’s first road game of 2009 and they’ll have to clean up the fumbling bugaboo that cost them a couple of wins last year and has returned again. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt has put the pigskin on the ground, though his passing has looked better on occasion to start the year. Last year’s ACC rushing leader Jonathan Dwyer looks like he’s in for another big year and the addition of transfer A-back Anthony Allen adds another dimension to offense. Georgia Tech is only 13-10 ATS the first half of the season the last four years.

Georgia Tech’s defensive front had three players chosen in the NFL draft, with defensive end Derrick Morgan the only holdover. Morgan has been an absolute terror with five sacks in the first two games and has been backed up by a solid group behind him. Expect Yellow Jackets coaches to bring linebackers and safeties to disrupt Harris and keep him from getting comfortable in the pocket for club that is 15-6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Miami as five-point favorites with total of 54. The Hurricanes are despicable 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and are 15-5 UNDER in home games off a road win against a conference rival. Georgia Tech is 19-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game and 12-3 UNDER after a win by six or less points.

The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in four ACC meetings with Miami, including two outright road upsets. The Canes are 1-6 SU and ATS versus Georgia Tech dating back 32 years and are 0-6 against the spread at home when playing with revenge. The Hurricanes are only 17-24 ATS since joining the ACC in conference play.

Labor Day Offerings

The Washington Nationals of all teams came from behind in the bottom of the ninth, giving us official 1-1 record for the day. On Labor Day we have Best College Football System of the weekend at 86.2 percent. The Top Trend is a doozy and the Free Pick has arrived with with material. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses vs team that had a winning record last season. This college football system is 25-4, 86.2 percent and has 1-0 record this weekend.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 7-0 in favor of the Texas Rangers tonight. Bonus- Rutgers has 75 percent of the LCC's action and Miami just over 63 percent.

Paul Buck is having 6-2 weekend in college football and has Big East Winner today. 3Daily Winners was 2-1 on Saturday and prefers one team in ACC matchup tonight on ESPN in our Guaranteed Picks.

Florida Fued Favors Tasty Underdog

This bitter Florida rivalry had gotten duller than Rachel Ray’s Food Network show “$40 a Day”, as both former national behemoths became medial teams. However, Miami and Florida State are headed back towards greater respectability and will play again on Labor Day, after two thrilling matchups the last couple of years.

Miami is 4-1 ATS at Tallahassee and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball to work with 16 returning starters. The Hurricanes will feature pro-style attack, with sophomore Jacory Harris running the show as solo, with Robert Marve a transfer. Graig Cooper leads a rushing attack that should be improved, with a greater commitment after averaging only 129 yards per game a season ago. This key area for Miami since they are 22-8 ATS in road games when they rush for 150 to 200 yards.

Defensively, a number of real solid players are available, though not the typical All-American studs normally seen on the Coral Gables campus. The Hurricanes were last in run defense in the ACC a year ago and defensive packs managed only two interceptions. Linebacker is the best position at the “U”, with Sean Spence the ringleader.

Most of the off-season talk on the Florida State campus has centered on legendary Bobby Bowden losing 14 wins in 2006-07 for rules infractions. As Florida State continues the fight to reinstate those victories, Bowden will work on something he can control, this year’s team.

The Seminoles regained their strength up front on offense, averaging 177 yards rushing per game in 2008. All five starters from that contingent are back and will be leaned on heavily, while new receivers are discovered for sophomore signal caller Christian Ponder. Last season, Ponder played like a talented freshman, showing glimpses of good and bad, he’ll be expected to improve if Florida State expects to be ACC Atlantic champs. On defense, coordinator Mickey Andrews, in his 26th season, will have work to do with just five starters back. How quickly Andrews can make this cohesive unit will set the tone.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites with a total of 47. Florida State is only 12-19 ATS a ACC home favorite since 2001 and will be playing in Doak Campbell Stadium at well below capacity. The Canes are 6-3 ATS as conference road underdogs the last five years in this competitive series.

This Florida battle has been dominated by the underdog, covering eight of the last 10 times. That has usually been the road team, who is 8-3 ATS in these gatherings. Keep an eye on first team to score, with this squad emerging as straight up winner 80 percent of the time in last 20 encounters.

ESPN has this ACC opener starting at 8 Eastern.

What College Football Teams have Guts?

With the advent of the 12th game added to college football schedule in 2006, it was reported by the NCAA, this was designed to create more interesting non-conference conflicts. Well, like any government bureaucracy, the plan was short-sighted, not thought all the way through and turns out to be nothing like it was intended to be. Most BCS universities used this opportunity to add a home game as revenue builder and brushed up on geography, trying to Google locations of FCS schools that could use cold hard cash and would not mind trading a loss for green-backs.

These FCS schools quickly passed a class in economics, no longer settling for a quarter of a million dollars to get beat, raising the price to current levels of $500,000 to close seven digits for the right of bigger schools to build winning records.

This does not go on at every large university thankfully. There are those who have the courage to play home and home with another big program and try and have the team prepared for conference action. They will still play a cream-puff, but at least it doesn’t look like a whole box of Dunkin Donuts, like many other schools.

Here is a review of the schools that have courage and a couple that are cowardly lions. (Any nicknames with lions is purely coincidental)

Georgia and LSU

Mark Richt works well with his athletic director to schedule the right combination. You don’t have to play USC and Ohio State every year in non-conference action, however, find the right above average program that will be tough competition and have the interest of the local fans to come out and watch with a purpose. Georgia opens at Oklahoma State and you can ask Oklahoma and Texas how much fun Stillwater can be to play as a highly ranked team. The Bulldogs have return match in Athens against Arizona State and closes the season as per usual, with in-state rival Georgia Tech, this year in Atlanta. Nobody will begrudge Georgia hosting Tennessee Tech, as a doughnut game between Florida and Auburn.

Contrast Georgia’s slate with that of LSU. It’s not the Tigers fault Washington is moribund, it just worked out that way for the season opener on the road. In their remaining three non-SEC contests, LSU doesn’t even leave the state of Louisiana. The Tigers play Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech and Tulane at Tiger Stadium. And please don’t send email suggesting LSU wants to promote football in the Bayou, nobody is buying it.

Virginia Tech

Someday coach Frank Beamer will retire and fans of college football will be poorer because of it. Beamer will play anyone anywhere, as long as they will visit Blacksburg. No big time program has played as often on Thursday’s, trying to promote what they have going and build on winning tradition. This season, Beamer takes the Hokies down to Atlanta for a beauty against Alabama on Sept. 5. Two weeks later, Nebraska arrives at Lane Stadium and they will have revenge on their minds from last year against East Carolina at home on the first Thursday of November. Even Marshall is a representative opponent.

Florida State

Bobby Bowden is the modern version of building a program from scratch and playing anyone wherever, which he started doing 34 years ago in Tallahassee. After getting away from his roots for a few years earlier this decade, Florida State is getting back to what it used to do. On Sept. 19, the Seminoles will make treacherous trip to Provo, to face BYU. Florida State has more athletes than BYU, nevertheless, the Cougars passing game could be equalizer. Of course defending national champs Florida will close the regular season, but kudos to FSU for scheduling South Florida. It’s not a gimme, as the Bulls have talent and they have plenty of players that Florida State probably never recruited, thus will be motivated to prove Bowden and his team they made mistake.

Miami- Florida

Head coach Randy Shannon is in his third year, trying to rebuild the Hurricanes program back to past glories. Similar to LSU, Miami never leaves Florida for its four non-conference games, with a sharp contrast in quality and whereabouts. The AD didn’t do Shannon any favors, scheduling Oklahoma on Oct. 3, right after encounter at Virginia Tech. The following week they have Florida A&M coming into Landshark Stadium. What separates the Miami from LSU, they go right into the eye of the hurricane so to speak with road challenges at Central and South Florida.

BYU

The Cougars will be more than ready for Mountain West Conference play in 2009. BYU will travel to Arlington, Texas, to play in Jerry Jones new palace against Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in season opener. This is followed by another road excursion to Tulane, before heading home to prepare for Florida State. That is ambitious start for the Cougs, who are preseason MWC favorites.

Houston and Rice

It’s not easy playing in a non-BCS conference, since finding games means traveling for the most part. This is true for Conference USA favorite Houston, who had to make one-sided deal with Oklahoma State and returns to Stillwater for second straight year. The Cougars will at least have Texas Tech at Robertson Stadium on Sept. 26. Following that battle, Houston has three straight road games, with the middle one at Mississippi State.

Rice is off rewarding 10-3 campaign and Texas Bowl rout of Western Michigan. The Owls suffered major losses on offense, which included QB Chase Clement and receiver Jarett Dillard. Having September road games versus Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will test mettle early, with Vanderbilt home game to follow. Later in the middle of October, it’s off to face a good East Carolina club. Nothing easy for Rice this season.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini’s non-Big Ten schedule isn’t so pressing, as it is unusual. This will be the third consecutive year Illinois opens with Missouri, which hasn’t worked out well for coach Ron Zook trying to get off to fast start with a pair of defeats. Illinois State makes the journey south to Champaign for next game and home opener for Illinois. Because the Big Ten slate has the Illini playing at Ohio State, home to Penn State and Michigan State in first three affairs starting Sept. 26, they made Sept. 19 an open date. How the Zookers decided to play the rest of non-conference games was wait until the Big Ten was over, take a bye week and play at Cincinnati the day after Thanksgiving and have Fresno State visit in December to finish the year. Certainly creative, especially for the Big Ten.

Penn State

Joe Paterno has been at Penn State forever, or so it seems. Paterno earlier this year was lobbying for the Big Ten to add a twelfth team to the league and wasn’t shy about his feelings in saying he didn’t want Notre Dame, when Pittsburgh or Syracuse would do fine in his mind. Of course Jo Pa wouldn’t want to do what the Pac-10 did in adding ninth conference game, not when you can schedule Akron, the Orangemen, Temple and Eastern Illinois all at Beaver Stadium.

Betting the ACC Tournament

The 56th annual Atlantic Coast Conference tournament is about ready to tip off, as it leaves the Carolina region for a trip to Atlanta, with Georgia Tech playing host. This has been the premier event in postseason college basketball for years and 2009 should be no different. North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite at -175 to cut down the nets Sunday afternoon; however a cloud of doubt has arisen as junior guard Ty Lawson is questionable for the opener and possibly for the whole tournament with a badly swollen right toe according to coach Roy Williams. Smart bettors know it is Lawson, not Tyler Hansbrough that makes the Tar Heels play most efficiently. Here is a game by game look at the opening round.

Miami vs Virginia Tech 12 Eastern

Miami (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS in ACC) starts the festivities with Virginia Tech in the tournament opener in a 8 vs 9 matchup and are favored by 3.5-points at Bookmaker.com, having won three of last four contests. The Hurricanes lean on two-time All-ACC selection Jack McClinton. The junior guard sets the table for Miami offense and leads the conference in three point accuracy at 46.4 percent. If the games are close, McClinton is a big reason why the Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last two seasons as he converts 88.5 percent from the charity stripe.

Virginia Tech (7-9, 6-10 ATS) fell apart late in the season, losers of six of last seven, including three in a row. The Hokies have been burying backers as well, on 2-7 ATS skid, as they are not receiving enough contributions from leading scorers A.D. Vassallo and point guard Malcolm Delaney. If Virginia Tech is going to move to 17-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick, their scoring tandem must come through.

The winner advances to same time slot Friday to face top seeded North Carolina.

Georgia Tech vs Clemson 2:20 Eastern

Georgia Tech was 2-14 (6-10 ATS) in ACC action and earned the last seed. The Yellow Jackets were a rambling wreck with too many young players in a ruthless league. Georgia Tech lost eight of last nine and is 5-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season. The Jackets were beaten twice by Clemson and failed to cover the spread either time.

Clemson (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) could well have had today off; unfortunately, they lost three of last four, which lowered them to fifth seed. The Tigers didn’t have any teeth at crunch time in those losses and their defensive weakness is guarding opponents once they break their press, surrendering far too many easy baskets once broken down. Clemson went to the title game last year and will seek that magic elixir that got them their in 2008. “We're going to go back to practice and hopefully try to catch fire and get back to the championship," said forward Trevor Booker.

Clemson is a 9.5-point favorite, however is just 10-25 ATS on the road after allowing 80 points or more. The winner moves on to take on Florida State.

N.C. State vs Maryland 7 Eastern

Both the Wolfpack and the Terrapins arrive at the Georgia Dome with seat belts attached and treys in upright position after a bumpy close to the season. N.C. State (6-10, 10-5-1 ATS) lost four of last six ACC affairs, including one to Maryland. The Wolfpack are the 10th seed and are hoping for some of the same magic they made two seasons ago. In 2007, they were a No.10 seed and caught fire, riding it all the way to ACC title tilt, before losing to North Carolina. The club from Raleigh is listed as 1.5-point underdogs and is 7-19 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last two campaigns.

Maryland (7-9, 8-8 ATS) was having a very average season until they caught everyone’s attention in upsetting North Carolina at home in overtime 88-85 on Feb. 21. Since the upset they are 1-3 SU and ATS. The Terps wouldn’t even be a seventh seed except for point guard Greivis Vasquez, having frequently been asked to carry the load for a team light on talent in a conference of this quality. The junior will on occasion come unglued and make bad choices, like in the last game loss at Virginia, with questionable judgments when the game was on the line. Maryland has won and covered last four games against N.C. State, however is mere 3-10 ATS on neutral courts.

Whoever survives has second seeded Wake Forest on tap.

Virginia vs Boston College 9:20 Eastern

In the first day finale, Boston College is 4.5-point choice to surpass 11th seeded Virginia. The Eagles look solid for making the field of 65 on Sunday, but one more win at least only gives a greater level of comfort. Boston College (9-7, 7-9 ATS) already has resume building wins over North Carolina and Duke. Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders give the Eagles exceptional backcourt play and B.C. is 25-10 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent of their three-point shots or worse.

It has been another dismal campaign for Virginia with just four wins (8-8 ATS) in the ACC. The Cavaliers are only 9-23 the last two seasons in conference play, their worst two year stretch in a decade. Virginia is only 1-9 away from home (6-4 ATS) and coach Dave Leitao is trying to keep positive attitude. “Obviously you're the one that drives the bus, and so a lot of times it kind of starts and ends with you. It's difficult, but at the same point in time, it doesn't shake both my confidence and my will of thought to know that we're doing the right thing and we're going in the right direction."

It’s rather easy to make a case, Virginia is the worst team in the ACC, finishing last in the in field-goal percentage (41.8) and field-goal percentage defense (43.8). To complete the inept trifecta, they were last in three point shooting at 31.1 percent. Based on how things have been playing out in Charlottesville, it doesn’t take a degree from Virginia to understand 17-30 spread record in March.

The victor draws Duke Friday night.

A Terrific Tuesday from 3Daily Winners

I had a feeling we would come back and missed by two points in the Monday night game of going 3-0. Great to see our Top System play deliver and we have another beauty in college hoops tonight at 23-5 against the spread. The LLC majority was correct last night on Houston and has unanimous selection tonight. The Top Trend peeks in on a particular NBA team in an awful situation. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON a team like Minnesota , a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a bad defensive team like Virginia (78 or more PPG), after scoring 85 points or more in last outing. This singular system is 23-5 ATS, 82.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Chicago Bulls are 2-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus the Miami Hurricanes as unanimous selection (8-0) in college hoops tonight.

17 Great Reasons to Watch Miami at Georgia Tech

The ACC caught a ton of grief in early September for playing ugly football, as Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech and Florida State all lost games they were expected to win. Since that time, the conference has really come around, with 14-2 non-conference record, covering the spread 11 times. For pure enjoyment or agony (depending what side you’re on), Atlantic Coast Conference football as been as entertaining as, hmm, ACC basketball. With that said, here are 17 reasons to watch tonight’s ACC contest.

1) You can watch for free at home (as opposed to NFL Network), as Direct TV or an advanced cable package no longer makes sense in today’s economy, besides the beers cheaper at home too.
2) Even if going to local watering hole is not a problem, do you really want to spend money when it’s Cincinnati at Pittsburgh?

3) Miami-Florida is in first place in the ACC Coastal Division and can all but wrap up title under second year coach Randy Shannon.

4) You played the Hurricanes and just found out they are 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.

5) You Googled “The U” and found out they only have 15,000 students located in beautiful Coral Gables and wanted to watch the game thinking about be 19 again and attending a university with so many of perks.

6) Being a fan of option football, like many you wonder how Georgia Tech players could figure out how to run their offense, while Michigan still doesn’t have clue.

7) It’s a lot easier to be nervous holding a Georgia Tech -3.5 betting ticket, now backed with the knowledge of the Yellow Jackets being 4-14 against the spread in last home game.

8) Having not seen the Georgia Tech play this year, curiosity is piqued that a team ranked eighth in the country rushing the ball at 250.7 yards per game, turns the ball over more often than a fifth grade basketball team.

9) You are known for asking A LOT of questions and you want to know why they drive a gold and black car onto the field of Georgia Tech games, when they are known as the Yellow Jackets. (Answer- Its origins are in the late 19th century and it was used originally to refer to the makeshift motorized vehicles constructed by Georgia Tech engineers employed in projects in the jungles of South America. The Wrecks were constructed from whatever the engineers could find—mostly old tractor and automotive parts—and were kept running by the engineers' ingenuity and creativity. Other workers in the area began to refer to these vehicles and the men who drove them as "Rambling Wrecks from Georgia Tech.” Thanks Wikipedia)

10) Georgia Tech is 5-1 SU and ATS against Miami.

11) To see how close Chris Fowler comes to laughing when Craig James says or does something whacked.

12) Miami came into this season 3-8 ATS off a win, this year they are 3-1-1 against the number.

13) The public has pushed the total up to 40.5 at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, yet you bought the Platinum Sheet and read the average score between these two schools is 36 points, including bowl matchups.(Know-it-alls will point to those games were not played by current players)

14) Georgia Tech is 9-21 ATS off a bye week.

15) The ‘Canes defense is ranked ninth in total defense, can they stop the Yellow Jackets running game?

16) Miami has won last 11 consecutive Thursday night games, yet is just 4-7 ATS.

17) This beats Thursday Thunder on TNT any time.

Get Your Friday Betting Groove On

An excellent bounce back Thursday with 3-1 record. We do feel bad for the Left Coast Connection member who had the Miami Hurricanes, but that’s gambling. With college basketball starting in earnest tonight, thought we’d throw out the best System available tonight, which has been 90 percent the last two years. We have a peculiar Top Trend to follow in the NBA and it’s never lost. Free Play ready. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) - Play On favorites of 10 or more points like Penn State, who were marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent and 9-1 the last two years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 0-13 ATS versus crummy 3-point shooting teams making 30 percent or less of their attempts.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Five members of the LLC are backing the Houston Rockets tonight.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.