Bring the brooms for Monday

One professional basketball team swept away the competition in the second round; now two more will try and match them to start a new work week. Orlando and Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and do the same thing Phoenix performed yesterday and whisk away their opponent’s in four games to advance to conference finals.

The Magic are presumed to have the easier time since they have toyed with Atlanta like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. Orlando has won the three games in the series by an average of 29 points, which by NBA standards is about the same difference as a balanced budget in Washington D.C. vs. the national debt.

Orlando’s worst shooting game in the series was their last at 50.7 percent (the other two were 52.4 and 55.9 percent), while Atlanta shot attempts looked like a few of Tiger Woods drives over the weekend, making a paltry 36.8 percent vs. the Magic, however at least Woods had a back neck as excuse.

The Magic have won lucky 13 in a row (12-1 ATS) and are 13-3 ATS in road games having covered 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last three seasons. Oddsmakers are taking a hit on the Hawks as the old “pendulum” theory is taking a beating with Atlanta, which is why Orlando is 6.5-point favorites after being just two in Game 3.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs and 4-18 ATS off a home massacre of 20 points or more and the most telling and damning remarks come from one of their own.

When asked how well his team plays together center Al Horhord offered this.

“The chemistry, it’s OK,” Horford said, hardly a glowing assessment. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.” How could a sports bettor take the points with that cryptic statement for this TNT tilt at 8:00 Eastern?

While many basketball experts don’t recognize much of a difference between the Lakers and Utah besides the height factor, Los Angeles has on other clear edge, which is why they are the defending NBA champions.

The Lakers are maddening bunch this year as reported underachievers, merely going thru the motions too often for people’s taste. They had the third best regular season record at 57-25 and were far from domineering at +4.7 points point differential (tied for sixth overall). Their 39-50-2 spread record is a scattergood for a team of their ability, yet the one thing they do right the vast portion of the time is they make one more shot, grab one more rebound or make one more defensive stop to win games than the opposition. This carried them to Game 3 victory and 3-0 series lead even if good fortune as much as anything kept Wesley Matthews tip-in try at the buzzer out of the basket.

For all the criticism Phil Jackson’s team receives they have won five in a row and covered the number four times and have growing confidence, which is not good news for future opponents.
“Down the stretch, we made big shots. We’ve got guys that aren’t scared to take them,” Kobe Bryant said. “All across the board, guys will step up and they make them. That’s why we never really fret when it’s a five-point game or a two-point game with a couple minutes to go. “
The Lakers have no problem playing the up-tempo game with Utah and are 9-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Utah is 2.5-point favorites, with total at a series high of 207 and the Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year. “If we get the ball in the basket last night in the end of the ballgame it’s a different day,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Sunday. “But that’s part of it. You learn how to deal with the good and bad in life. There’s always going to be both at different times.”

The Jazz are 8-0 ATS at Energy Solutions Arena after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and are 8-1 OVER in all playoff conflicts this campaign. The Lakers would prefer not to extend series and have nearly as much rest as the Suns before they meet and are 34-19 ATS as underdogs.

This contest will begin after Orlando and Atlanta complete their game and L.A. is 13-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

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Is it wise to wager on Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.
However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter.

Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

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Are the Atlanta Hawks already finished?

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to ESPN at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

It's Cinco de Mayo - Stay thirsty my friends

Oh yea, that more like it, two for Tuesday. For Cinco de Mayo (wearing my new Los Suns jersey) have an MLB Super System that is 84.1 percent. The Top Trend is beauty and Paul Buck will have Free Pick before you know it, like right now. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Hey Atlanta, just a heads up. The second round of the playoffs has started. Yea, I know you are a bit tuckered out from seven games against inferior Milwaukee team and it would have been nice to take nap every day with your favorite blanket like Orlando did after sweeping the Jordan’s.

Well I checked with the NBA and everyone on your team gets a merit badge for attending Game 1. Oh sure you lost by 43, it happens. Don’t worry about shooting 34.6 percent, at least Josh Smith was 7-14 and he got a lollipop from the trainer for doing his best like a good boy.

For your next game against the Magic, I like to make one small suggestion, when the coach yells “Box out” that means you get in front of you man, not stand behind him and get out-rebounded by 18.

So you Hawks, you get ready to do your best and don’t worry about the outcome, because the most important things in life is trying hard and updating your Twitter and Facebook accounts.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like the Halos with a money line of +100 to +150, being an AL team with a low on-base percentage of .320 or worse, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a scary bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Over the last five seasons this systems calculates at 37-7.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Houston Astros are 1-12 off consecutive losses.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is on the Chicago Cubs in the Steel City.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Orlando vs Atlanta Series Outlook

The Magic and Hawks took opposite paths to this series matchup, Orlando using only four games, while Atlanta was pushed to full seven. However, this is what the Hawks wanted, they are out to prove they are an elite club deserving of being in the final four of NBA tournament, while this is another stop on the way for the team from central Florida, wanting to repeat as conference champions. What is set to occur, read on.

(2) Orlando vs (3) Atlanta

If the Orlando Magic is a little tight to start Eastern Conference semi-final series with Atlanta don’t be shocked. Not tight like in nervous, more in the muscles being strained, as they haven’t played a NBA game since Mar. 26 in being the only NBA team to sweep opponent.

Though Orlando needed only four contests to send the Bobcats packing, a similar performance could send them home before Memorial Day. Dwight "Foul-On-U" Howard played roughly 54 percent of the time against Charlotte and it had nothing to do with being tired or the Magic being far ahead. Howard was continually in foul trouble and was WAY to easily frustrated by the antics of Bobcats big men and let his ego matter more than the team.

Though Atlanta coach Mike Woodson will not be mentioned in the same sentence with Larry Brown as astute NBA coaching legends, he will learn from what the Charlotte was able to do and work to have Howard take himself out of the game instead of being dominate force.

Vince Carter shot 35.7 percent in first playoff series with Orlando, that won’t cut it against Atlanta. Carter was too tentative and fell back into comfort zone of hoisting jumps shots. (Though he’s not that accomplished at making them) He has to be willing to put the ball on the deck, drive to the rim, get fouled and make free throws to create more wide open chances for jumpers.

If those two players perform up to capabilities, Orlando could have another short series, since Jameer Nelson, Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were burying three’s like “Fito” with his bone in the backyard. In many ways Nelson is the key performer among this trio, as he can force Atlanta to sit Mike Bibby, since he is not a good defender any longer and make the Hawks use Jamal Crawford as more two-way player.

Orlando won three of four meetings with Southeast Division partner, with average margin of victory 22.1 points per game. The Magic come into this series 40-19 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Coach Woodson wants to believe his club learned something about itself and it will carry over into this next series. Realistically, except for fourth quarter collapse in Game 5, the Hawks have played very good defense for three games and started sharing the ball in the last six quarters.

Atlanta players don’t have to run isolations time after time to score, they get much better offensive flow by passing, cutting and finding open shooters. Though Milwaukee lacked the height to compete with the Hawks inside, the increased offensive movement made them a much better offensive rebounding team which will be a requirement in this series, especially if it leads to fouls on Howard.

On defense, Atlanta was able to pressure the Bucks guards with greater persistence and they will have to have that same gumption with all the Orlando shooters.

To start the series, the better strategy for the Hawks is to man-up the Magic and keep in contact with their sharp-shooters and hope Al Horford can force Howard out to around 10 feet and keep him away from the rim. What hurts Atlanta is when they allow dribble penetration, setting up Howard for easy dunks because of help defense and three-point marksmen are left alone to hit the bulls-eye.

Joe Johnson and Crawford have to be the offensive catalysts as scorers and facilitators. Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams are much better players when they receive passes in their comfort zone.

"We're confident," Hawks center Horford said. "I think we've figured out if we play hard defensively we always give ourselves a chance to win games. And we just have to come out and match their intensity. They have a lot of good shooters, they have Dwight inside. It's going to be a challenge... but we're excited." Atlanta is 5-18 ATS on the road in all playoff games.

Atlanta will have no better chance to grab the upper hand feeding off the momentum of series win and Orlando being rusty for first contest. The Hawks players, at least outwardly believe they can win two series for the first time in franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968. That means playing at a level they are not accustomed to and doing whatever it takes. From talent perspective, they could pull the upset, but Orlando is a bad matchup for them with their style (4-8 SU & ATS) and ultimately prevails.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-800) in six over Atlanta (+600)

Friday evening is moving day in NBA Playoffs

One of two things happens to start the weekend in professional basketball, either a series will conclude and the winning squad can start thinking about their next series and opponent or the competing teams will return to familiar locale for a Game 7 on Sunday. This makes for real drama as a trio of series underdogs look to wrap-up or extend a series.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:00E ESPN

Though the hip-hop generation of NBA players likely doesn’t include many U2 fans, a song comes to mind watching Atlanta and Milwaukee the last three games, “Desire”.

The Bucks performance in pulling the 91-87 upset as nine-point favorites was unremarkable, given the fact they shot 40.3 percent for the game, were outscored at the center position 25-4 and saw various players disappear for long stretches even when they were on the floor.

Yet, if one game defines a team and its coach, it was Game 5 for Milwaukee with their desire. Scott Skiles grinded away as a college and NBA player and his less-talented contingent played like he did his whole career. This Bucks team is 14-4 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season and goes for the first surprise of the playoffs.

Atlanta showed what they were made of as Josh Smith, Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford all decided individually they were going to be “the man” and went about their business trying to take their defenders one on one with passing the ball be damned. Once again the Hawks proved they are not mature TEAM and that they lack heart. Peering ahead it is little wonder this team is 1-10 ATS revenging a home loss this season.

Sportsbooks still has the more talent-laden Atlanta squad as two-point favorites, however it would take a large dosage of courage to back a team that is 1-10 SU and ATS on the playoff road the last three seasons. Milwaukee was the best spread team in the NBA this campaign and it is continuing in the playoffs. They are 20-6 ATS having covered the spread in three or more consecutive contests.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The people of the United States are known for their short attention spans and ever increasing shorter memories. In this celebrity-status world, it’s easy to jump on the latest fad and forget about what is tried and true.

The basketball world has become infatuated with latest new kids on the block, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are young, talented, and fearless and their youth doesn’t allow them to be discouraged for long.

The eminent demise of the Los Angeles Lakers has been discussed from coast to coast on talk radio and every chatroom and blog one could stumble upon. The world had lost track of just how good the Lakers can be last playing a complete basketball game on Mar. 12 in Phoenix, 21 games ago or a lifetime in today’s hectic world.

But the Lakers came prepared, executed their game plan Tuesday evening, integrating all the parts of the triangle offense to perfection and showed why gold and purple still matters. L.A. is 26-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four.

Oklahoma City gladly returns home, even faced with elimination and is a one-point favorite with total of 194.5. The Thunder is thunderous 15-5 ATS off a road loss and uncanny 27-8 ATS after failing to cover the number. OKC is 13-3 UNDER at the Ford Center after wearing the visiting blue togs. The Lakers will seek to deliver the knockout blow, but are 1-9 ATS off a cover. Kobe and company are 22-8 UNDER with two days’ rest.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

At least for a day, no negative tweets, talk or posturing out of Denver as they held off first match point against Utah at home Wednesday 116-102.

Focal point Carmelo Anthony must have made his case strong enough that he needed help as five other Nuggets scored in double figures and more importantly, the team collectively took a defensive stance, holding the Jazz to series low 45.2 percent.

“Everybody stepped up tonight and did their part,” Anthony said after the game. “With Nene going down early, ‘Frenchie’ came in and stepped up, ‘Bird’ played the way he is supposed to be playing. Everybody played their role tonight. That’s how we won.”

Denver’s more fluid offense is easily measured; they are 47-8 SU when they have 20 or more assists and 9-24 SU when fall below that figure. The Nuggets cannot afford anything less than the same work ethic and compulsion to team work if they expect to continue series and add to 7-3 ATS mark in the first round of postseason.

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a double digit defeat and did not match Denver’s intensity from last contest. “They were a lot more alive, they went after the ball a little harder than we did,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said. “The players off the bench gave them a big lift. Their bench people killed us.”

Utah is up a six-point home favorite, with the total at 215.5 and might face Denver club without Nene, whose been diagnosed with a sprained knee. The Jazz are 17-4 ATS off a road loss and will continue to keep the offense flowing thru Deron Williams, who became the first player in NBA history to record five straight 20-point/10-assist double-doubles to begin a series.

“Stuff was too easy (for the Nuggets),” Williams said. “We have to get back to playing our basketball.”

The odds are not in Denver’s favor with recent 1-8-1 ATS away slide, but if they want to force a deciding Game 7 at the Pepsi Center on Sunday, they will have to find a way.

NBA Game 5's are pivotal

Four teams in professional basketball have a huge stake in the outcome of tonight’s games. The winner in Milwaukee and Atlanta takes series lead and the loser faces elimination in next contest. Denver is already facing the possibility of having their season end tonight, while the gutty and determined Utah Jazz are looking to advance to next round with a win.

Home is where the heart is

The Atlanta Hawks believed they had reached a point in their growth process that they should be thought as serious Eastern Conference contenders at the very least. Instead they look very much like the Atlanta team of two years ago, still searching for true identity against Milwaukee club that has their best player on the sidelines in a suit.

It’s definitely frustrating,” guard Joe Johnson said Tuesday after the Hawks practiced for the pivotal fifth game. “We come into this situation talking so much about what we’re going to do—this and that, this and that—yet we haven’t done nothing. We haven’t done nothing we set out to do.”

Atlanta is a miserable road playoff team but returns home where the comfort level is more to their liking. The Hawks are 36-7 and 27-16 ATS at Phillips Arena, winning by 8.6 points per contest. Atlanta has won 14 consecutive home games and is 7-2 ATS in last nine.

Milwaukee is receiving different contributions, which has helped them overcome the loss of Andrew Bogut. Dan Gadzuric has given valuable minutes off the bench and Carlos Delfino buried six 3-pointers in Game 4 to help the Bucks square the series and they are 27-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.

Sportsbooks have Atlanta as nine-point favorites with total of 192 and they are 9-19 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite. Milwaukee is far from solid sports betting wager with 2-8-1 ATS mark as playoff underdogs.

TNT has this Eastern conflict at 8:00 Eastern and the Hawks are 16-6 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Rocky Mountain tall problems for Denver

The Nuggets are touchy-feely content after a day to recant their feelings about losing Game 4 and falling to 3-1 deficit against Utah. Carmelo Anthony said he was misunderstood when he was quoted as saying he couldn’t beat Utah by himself. J.R. Smith, the ultimate team player (?), tweeted his teammates are being selfish and interim coach Adrian Dantley wondered aloud how a player could score 39 points and still commit nine turnovers, like Carmelo did in last contest.

Yup, the Nuggets are now just one big happy family as they prepare for Game 5 at home. “A lot of people took what I said when I said I needed help the wrong way. But I talked to my teammates. They know what I meant,” Anthony said after Tuesday’s practice. “We talk basketball every day, so they know I’m not pointing nobody out individually.

“I’m not saying I’m playing the best I can play. I’m in there with them. We’re all losing together.”

Denver is losing on the defensive end, conceding 112.2 points a contest to the Jazz, who are shooting over 50 percent for the series. The Nuggets players should be dressed as matadors, since they let Utah players by them while holding their plastic swords. Somebody on this team needs to take the role of leadership and get his team fired up. If so, Denver improves on 26-11 ATS record at home after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.

While the Nuggets might need a team meeting with Dr. Phil, Utah is relishing its opportunity and focused on the task at hand. Deron Williams was asked about the frustrations Denver is feeling, “Let’s worry about us. Whatever they say is what they say. We’re just worried about winning this next game and closing the series out.” he said.

The Jazz are 12-2 ATS after a contest where both teams scored 105 points or more this season and Carlos Boozer won’t have any talk about what a great spot his team is in. “We’re not going to fall into the trap of thinking that we’ve won the series. We haven’t. We have a lead in the series. We haven’t won anything.” - The former Duke star stated.

Denver is a seven-point favorite and is 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. With the total at 215, the Nuggets have to play better defense and are 21-7 UNDER in the first round of the postseason. Utah is 20-7 ATS when playing only their second game in five days and is 7-1 OVER in last eight visits to the Mile High City. This true Western shootout begins right after the Bucks and Hawks.

NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

NBA homers have to come thru

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.
Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

NBA Eastern Conference Series Outlook

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

3DW Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4) Boston vs (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

The Top NBA systems for Monday

Five games will mark the Monday slate, however the best of the group didn’t have a side or total when this article needed to be completed since LeBron James and Cleveland is up in the air for visiting San Antonio. Instead, we press on with the rest of the other games, including games involving car-wrecks New York and New Jersey. Who said Monday’s aren’t fun. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta (-7, 210.5) at New York

You’ll have to excuse Knicks if they are really down, not every team could lose by 20 points to New Jersey, especially after they enjoyed a 16-point lead in the same game. If you can’t close out the Lousy Bets from the Garden State, you deserve what you get. Of note, the Knicks couldn’t throw in the Hudson River, setting a NBA record of miss-guided futility, with ZERO for 18 total beyond the three point arc. Here is what to do with the New York “Bombers”, play against home teams after they allowed 100 points or more in five games, against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in consecutive contests. A record of 26-8 ATS tends to work.

New Jersey (+8.5, 196) at Memphis

Memphis didn’t handle the pressure of taking care of San Antonio at home Saturday, losing by 10 points to division partner, their seventh straight defeat at FedEx Forum. When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points for team like Grizzlies, playing a non-conference clash off a division loss, the outcome the previous three years is 59-30 UNDER.

Dallas (-7, 207) at Minnesota

The Dallas Mavericks have won 11 in a row and will look to maul Minnesota an eight straight time this Monday. The Mavs are battling injuries, yet keep in winning. They won 122-116 at Chicago two nights ago and road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points, in the second half of the season, are 43-15 ATS since 2005.

Golden State (+7, 214.5) at New Orleans

The Hornets are really struggling without Chris Paul. Having lost four in a row SU and ATS and six of seven overall, New Orleans lack of defense is really hurting them without offensive production. When a team has being beaten by the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season and the total is greater than or equal to 210, the UNDER is 53-23.

NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.

East vs West Televised Tilts

Once again this season, the Western Conference has the edge over the East. The West has 11 teams at .500 or better, compared to those from the Eastern side with eight. One distinct disadvantage the East has is New Jersey (1-21 SU vs. the West), that would be the Nets, not the state. ESPN will have two confrontations to wager on Friday night with the NBA bettor being able to show his allegiance.

Dallas at Atlanta 7:00 E

While a number of Eastern Conference teams have been pummeled by the West, one club that hasn’t is Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS). The Hawks are 18-8 against the other conference with a 15-11 ATS mark. Atlanta is even more imposing at Phillips Arena with 10-1 (6-5 ATS) record.

The Hawks return home from .500 four game road trip and gave a run of the mill performance in defeating Minnesota 98-92 as 11.5-point favorites. Atlanta was bailed out by Josh Smith, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

He was all over the place,” coach Mike Woodson said. “He blocked some shots. He scored for us, made some free throws. He was solid from beginning to end, and we’re going to need him the rest of the way.” Atlanta is 18-9 ATS after playing a home game this season.

The Hawks are going to need Smith and a complete team effort to slow down Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS). The Mavericks have won five in a row and have really put the defensive clamps down on opposing teams, limiting them to 90.2 points per game during this win streak. Dallas has a number of negative trends this season, but they are 16-9 ATS when they hold opponents to 96 or fewer points.

The Mavs are only three-point road underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, possibly because they are 17-5 (10-12 ATS) against the East. Dallas will have to overcome frightening angle that has them at 5-15 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta on the other hand is 22-6 and 19-10 ATS at home and 26-12 ATS on their own court after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two years.

Atlanta has won and covered last two meeting at home and is 17-6 OVER after one or more Under’s this season. The Hawks also won at Dallas 80-75 on Dec. 5 as six-point underdogs and the Mavericks are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

Orlando at New Orleans 9:30 E

The Magic have won 13 of last 17 (9-7-1 ATS) and no tricks have been involved. Center Dwight Howard has been the centerpiece of Orlando (39-19, 28-26-4 ATS) surge, that has catapulted them into first place in the Southwest Division and ahead of Boston for the second best record in the East.

“He’s worked hard. He’s made improvement and I think he’s going to play at a high level all of the time.” – Coach Stan Van Gundy said about Howard.

The Magic humiliated Houston 110-92 at their place and is 17-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. Orlando has been above average against the West with 12-8 mark and 8-9-3 ATS record.

New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) could use some help, having lost seven of last 11. The Hornets have pressed on without their leader Chris Paul, as their rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton has played well on the offensive end, but possibly isn’t getting the rest of the team into the offense. As one might expect, defense is an on-going lesson for this duo at this level and they and their teammates permitted Milwaukee to score 72 of their 115 points in the paint in last outing, which is dreadful, since the Bucks aren’t exactly known as inside scoring team.

We just didn’t have enough fight, which is inexcusable for a team like this,” Collison said. “Mentally, we weren’t in it on the defensive end.” The Hornets will have to get into it or they will fall to 2-11 ATS on Friday night’s.

New Orleans is five-point home underdog with total of 201 and they are 10-15 (13-12 ATS) facing teams east of the nearby Mississippi River. The Hornets lost by six at Orlando earlier this month and is 25-11 ATS at home revenging a same season loss and 14-3 UNDER as a home underdog. The Magic has mesmerized non-conference foes on the road the last three years with 29-13 ATS record and is 16-6 UNDER as a road favorite this season.

The Hornets are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS against Orlando since moving to the Crescent City.

All Systems go for NBA Monday

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up their four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington

Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.

Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York

The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.

Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.

Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah

Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS.

Heat and Suns look to increase temperatures

Dwayne Wade and his Heat teammates ended their five game losing streak last evening, in humbling Houston 99-66. They will seek just their third road win in 10 attempts in a place that has not hospitable to them. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season and are rested for opponent who is injured and off playing last night.

Miami (25-27 SU & ATS) had lost five in a row, and been beaten rather severally (9.6 points per game) and was determined to change their attitude around at home against the Rockets. The Heat turned up the heat on Houston, building a 56-31 halftime lead and never looked back. “Instead of feeling sorry for ourselves, we came in with the right mindset to work and try to get better,” coach Erik Spoelstra said.

To take positive momentum into the All-Star break, the Heat players will need a non-placet attitude about playing consecutive nights. Miami is 2-8 and 3-7 ATS playing with no rest and been bashed by 12.4 points a contest in this situation. The Heat are 3-12 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons and head to a joint where success is tough to come by.

Miami has lost five in a row at Phillips Arena during the regular season and eight of nine if you include the playoffs in almost three seasons (3-6 ATS). Atlanta (33-17, 32-18 ATS) has the second best home record in the Eastern Conference at 21-5 and the finest spread record in the NBA at 18-8 ATS. The Hawks have captured nine of last 10 (7-3 ATS) and are 15-5 ATS on home floor after playing three consecutive games as favorite.

The Heat is a seven-point road underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 191 and is 17-34 ATS off a home win since 2007. Atlanta on the other hand is 15-6 ATS overall and 10-2 OVER in a home game facing a team with a losing record this season.

This doesn’t look like a crucial contest for Phoenix (31-21, 27-24-1 ATS), however it is important for the following reasons. The Suns five game winning streak has restored the club’s confidence, especially with the last four victories coming on the road. A sixth straight W might cool talk of trading All-Star center Amare Stoudemire, whose averaged 27.8 points and 12.3 rebounds in those four road triumphs.

Phoenix has gone from a low Western Conference seed to now with visions of moving up to fourth slot if they continue with big second half. Besides trying to earn another win, the Suns will begin playing their final 29 games well-rested, with this being their only contest in 11 day period. Phoenix won and covered at Sacramento last Friday 114-102 and is 12-4 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.

Conversely, Portland (30-24, 29-24-1 ATS) can’t get to break quick enough. The Trailblazers have been injury-plagued again and have missed the heart and soul of their team, Brandon Roy. Portland is 4-7 (7-4 ATS) in Roy’s absence and though Jerryd Bayless filled in admirable for a time, averaging 14 points per game, he’s down to 6.5 PPG in last two tries and the Blazers have scored 82 and 77 points in last two games played at home. Coach Nate McMillan’s team is 47-70 ATS playing eight or more games in 14 days.

The Suns are eight-point home chalk, with total of 210.5 and they are 12-2 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite and 9-0 OVER at home off two or more consecutive road wins. Portland is 17-8 ATS versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game and 12-3 OVER as a road underdog this season.

All Systems Go for NBA Monday

On a busy night for sports bettors in professional basketball, five matchups in particular standout, given specific situations on the sides and totals. Take a hard look at these systems before making a decision on what looks best on the NBA board to start another week of wagering. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Indiana (+4.5, 206) at Philadelphia

The Pacers headed down a very familiar path, losing a lot of basketball games. Indiana has dropped four of last five, as even their offense is failing them, averaging 95.8 points per game compared to season average of 99. Having lost by 10 points at home to the Sixers Saturday, they turn right around and face them again in Philly. Teams that have played five or more consecutive Unders, averaging 98-102 points per contest, against an ordinary offensive team (92-98 PPG) are 5-23 ATS the last five seasons.

Cleveland (-1, 190) at Miami

The Cavaliers have won four in a row, including a pair of narrow wins over the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Cleveland ranks 13th in points scored at 100.9 PPG, however, pedestrian offensive teams (98-102 PPG) facing other teams that allow 92-98 points a contest, after two wins by six or fewer points are 33-64 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (+1, 204.5) at Memphis

The Orlando Magic after losing last three games of their recent road trip have come back to win take a trio of contests by 10 points or more. Orlando is seventh in points surrendered at 96.2 per game and visits a Memphis squad that 24th defensively in conceding 103.9 PPG. These factors set up a total situation that reads this way. Play Over when the total is 200 to 209.5, with one team permitting 92-98 PPG, against a lousy defensive team (102 or more PPG), after two straight wins by 10 points or more. (25-7 L5Y)

Atlanta (+1, 197) at Houston

The Rockets have not been firing correctly in 2010, winning just four of 10 tries and costing backers dearly with 2-8 ATS mark. Their record has fallen to 24-19 and home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, with winning percentage between 51 and 60 percent, are 9-32 ATS since 2005.

Phoenix (+6.5, 221.5) at Utah

The Suns (26-19) and Jazz (25-18) have similar records, with Phoenix having lost five of last seven and Utah hitting the right notes having emerged victorious six of last seven games. Though the Jazz are vastly superior defensive team (97 vs 107.4 points allowed) oddsmakers see Phoenix dictating the tempo with predicted total. In this case, Play Over when the total is greater than or equal to 210, in a game involving two marginal winning teams, with record falling into 51 to 60 percent. (32-8 L5Y)

Young NBA teams earning respect

Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, instead from medium sized markets (except for one) and mostly having a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis.

Atlanta looks to not get tangled in Charlotte’s web

To use a little Stu Scott speak in talking about Larry Brown, the Bobcats head coach, “The man may drive a U-Haul as his top rig with all the stops he’s made, but the dude can still coach”. Since Charlotte was again awarded a NBA franchise, they have been more beatable than a piñata. That was until the oft-traveled Brown found his dream job (for the 10th time) in the middle of North Carolina.

The Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. Brown’s Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”

Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing.

“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).

Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.

How did this happen?

It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.

Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. (Really it’s true) Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of last 13 the last month and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS having won three of their last four games.

Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and they are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.

Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies who are 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City who is 12-3 OVER in road games playing eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.

Back in the saddle again

After a very long and unexpected break, time to regroup and move ahead.

We start with a NBA system that is outstanding 24-3 ATS, only question I have is quick turnaround revenge for the home team. A strong play against Top Trend in college hoops in the WAC and Sal has Free NBA play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday- The NFL Wild Card round produced three outright underdog winners along with all four games going Over the total. As Steve Makinen of StatFox uncovered, teams that won the regular season matchup in Week 17 are 6-5 and 5-5-1 ATS in the Wild Card round. Most compelling was the fact the OVER is now 10-1 in return games.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON road teams like Atlanta scoring 103 or more points game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This NBA system is scintillating 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Fresno State is 2-11 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal has been burning up the nets in the NBA and has the Hornets to win in Philly.

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NBA Monday Systems

A rather large NBA card in available to start another work week. As has become the custom on this day of the week, we bring you some of the very best professional basketball systems to consider for your wagering pleasure. Numbers from Diamondportsbook.com.

Toronto at Indiana (-1.5, 217)

The Pacers and Raptors are two teams that don’t pay strict attention to defense, ranking 24th and 26th respectively in points allowed. Tonight give the edge to Toronto since home teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game facing a club that allows over 102 PPG, after two straight contests where both teams scored 100 points or more, are 15-39 ATS.

Atlanta at Boston (-3.5, 192)

The Atlanta Hawks defeated Boston at home this past Friday 93-85 as four-point favorites. The next night Atlanta was abysmal in Orlando, losing by 32 points. Though it’s a tough road rematch for the Hawks, visiting teams scoring 103 or more points a game, trailing by 20 or more points in last contest are 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent in following encounter.

Milwaukee at Phoenix (-8.5, 211)

The Bucks are on a treacherous Western Conference six-game road trip, against the Lakers last night they were mauled 95-77. They play tonight in downtown Phoenix, which will be there third game in four days. Teams in that situation with a win percentage of 40 to 49 percent, facing a club with a winning record and a total of at least 210, are 25-6 OVER the last five seasons.

Miami at Utah (-7.5, 192)

The Utah Jazz is having a mediocre season by their standards at 20-17, yet have managed to cover their last three contests. Miami is actually doing a little worse overall at 18-17, which tonight’s matchup plays into a total system. When a squad has successfully covered the spread in two or more games, in a matchup involving two marginal winning teams (51 to 60 win percentage), with the total between 190 and 199.5, the UNDER is 45-17 since 2005.

Minnesota at Denver (-13, 216)

On Nov. 29, Minnesota marched into Denver and handed the Nuggets a 106-100 loss as 14.5-point underdogs. That is just one of three home losses for Denver, who is off heartbreaking two-point defeat at Sacramento Saturday. Check the total tonight as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite of seven or more, off a close road loss of three points or less, are 28-7 UNDER since 1996.

Cleveland at Golden State (+5, 215.5)

The Cavaliers (29-10) are playing their third road game in four nights and are 15-7 and 14-8 ATS as visitors. Though Golden State prefers to score with no semblance of defensive structure, play the UNDER when the total is 200 or higher, with teams like Cleveland playing their third road game in five days or less. with a winning percentage of 60-75 percent. (60-27)

Top Monday NBA Systems

The first Monday of the New Year in the NBA finds four games on the NBA agenda. All season we have been providing winning information on this day of the week, with our top situation that matches up with each NBA contests. Here is a look at the top systems for today. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta at Miami (+1.5, 195.5)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit their first slump of the season, losing three of four, however, tonight’s opponent and division rival Miami is also carrying three game losing streak. When a situation like this arises, look to play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, if they have winning 60-75 percentage on the season. Over the last three seasons, this system checks in at 32-12 ATS.

Oklahoma City at Chicago (-2, 194)

When it comes to three-point shooting, it’s hard to matchup two worst teams than these two. Oklahoma City is 26th (31.7 percent) and Chicago is tick behind at 31.6 percent. Even without this as part of the offensive arsenal, look to Play Over in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams, with the Bulls an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense like the Thunder (14.5-16.5 TO's). In the last five seasons, this system is solid 82-45 OVER.

New Orleans at Utah (-7.5, 196)

The Hornets don’t have a number of offensive weapons, which is why they rank 19th in scoring at 98 points per game. They travel to Utah off a pair of close home victories over Miami (95-91) and Houston (99-95). It has been best to play against teams like New Orleans who are decent on offense (98-102 points per game) against a defensive team like the Jazz (92-98 PPG), after two straight wins by six points or less. Since 2005, this system is 33-9 ATS, 78.5 percent.

Portland at L.A. Clippers (-4, 189.5)

Any rest in the NBA is looked upon as being good, considering the grueling schedule. This can refresh the legs and help any team player better defense with more energy. In this Western Conference conflict, check out the UNDER, since home teams are 38-18 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, after successfully covering the spread in two or more games, playing four or less games in 10 days.