The last big college football weekend, sadly

Finally get to have this started again. We will start the day with college football system this 88.9 percent in the Apple Cup contest. The Border War yields a Top Trend that is 100 percent perfect. The Free Play has been delivered. Good Luck

What I learned this yesterday – It was a Black Friday for college football bettors that prefer favorites, as they went 3-9-1 against the spread.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Washington, who are average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 or more YPP), in conference games. Since 1992, this system is better than a leftover turkey sandwich at 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Missouri Tigers are 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s top play is SMU for today.

Rivalry Games for Wagering Appetites

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.


Oklahoma State (+7.5, 49) at Oklahoma 12:30E FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 10.5

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida 3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

3DWLine – Florida by 23.5

Georgia (+7.5, 57) at Georgia Tech 8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

3DWLine – Georgia Tech by 13

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford 8:00E ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years. (Does Harbaugh look to run up the score like he did against USC)

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

3DW Line – Stanford by 7.5

Here are other rivalry games of interest.

Clemson at South Carolina (+3.5, 44) 12:00E ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are playing for their first ACC title since 1991 next week, but before that, they would not mind sticking it to Palmetto state rival South Carolina. The Tigers finally exceeded expectations in winning the Atlantic Division and have six game winning streak for the first time in three years. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the last eight years in this encounter and have been an underdog once in 20 years. South Carolina is sliding again due to rugged closing slate and needs this victory for a winning campaign. The Gamecocks are 6-15 ATS in last game and 6-11 ATS the last two games since 2001.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (+8, 47.5) 12:21E SEC Network/GP

The Egg Bowl is among the bitterest state rivalries and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen will get his first taste playing in Starkville. MSU has played a number of the better SEC teams to the finish and it would be a great conclusion to upset Ole Miss this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in final home game. After beating LSU last week 25-23, Mississippi looks to close the season on a high note. The Rebels have better utilized the talents of running back Dexter McCluster the last several weeks and is 7-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The home team is 9-1 and 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 years.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (+15.5, 42) 3:30E ESPN

The Hokies have won nine of last 10 in this rivalry, with seven covers. It’s a different feeling for Virginia Tech in this contest, as usually a bigger game has been in waiting, be it in the ACC or the Big East. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three years. It looks like the end of the line for coach Al Groh, with Virginia on five-game losing streak and another losing season. The Cavaliers anemic offense has been the largest contributor, scoring more than 20 points three times and they are 10-22 ATS when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS vs. Virginia the last 24 years.

Missouri vs. Kansas (+3.5, 56) 3:30E ABC/GP

The longest running series west of the Mississippi River continues in Kansas City for a third straight year. Both teams had disappointment with how the season evolved, yet one squad will have satisfaction in deflating their biggest rival. In this Border War, Missouri’s passing offense is 18-6 ATS when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Kansas on the other hand is 0-6 SU and ATS since win over Iowa State in Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks failures bring up the past and they are 18-39 ATS record in weeks 10 through 13. This is the 118th meeting and the series is 54-54-9, with the dog barking at 10-4 ATS.

Utah at BYU (+7.5, 53) 5:00E CBSC

This is the 85th version of the Holy War and though no conference title is on the line, the intensity will be as strong as ever. BYU is after their fourth consecutive 10-win season and definitely will be in revenge mode after 48-24 demolition at Utah last season. The Cougars are only 4-11 ATS in MWC matchups the last two years. Like BYU, the Utes have lost just twice this season and are 17-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards a game. This is almost always a competitive affair, with 10 of last 12 decided by seven or less points. The underdog is 12-4 ATS since 1993.

UCLA at USC (-13, 47) 10:00E FSN

Much like the Dodgers and Angels of Los Angeles, UCLA and USC failed to deliver in clutch situations, leaving fans wanting for more. The Bruins lack of running game has limited the options in the passing game, with opponents blitzing heavily in obvious throwing situations. UCLA is 6-12 ATS on the road after a Pac-10 home game. This is unfamiliar territory for USC with three losses; however closing with a trio of wins gives the Trojans an eighth straight 10-win or better season. Coming off the bye week, Pete Carroll’s club is 19-7 ATS with rest and the home team is 19-8 ATS for this city rivalry.

Can Nevada's Three-headed Monster upset Boise State?

The WAC title is on the line along with potentially a BCS berth in the Fiesta Bowl for Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS). After several beat downs by Boise State, Nevada has lost 69-67 in triple overtime and 41-34 the last two years to the Broncos. Are the Wolf Pack ready to pull the upset this season?

Since 1999, Boise State is 69-2 SU at home with 44-17 ATS record. Coach Chris Peterson is aware his defense allowed more yards than usual in a couple of games, but chalked them up to just contests that turned into shoot-outs his team won and covered handily. Another positive development is the Broncos red zone offense, which has been stellar in recent weeks after providing pedestrian results most of the season. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has been incredibly efficient, throwing 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions. The Broncos average 41.3 points per game and are 25-6 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight contests.

After starting the year slowly on offense, Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) has been molten in last eight games, averaging over 51 points per game. The Wolf Pack running game is the finest in the country at 373.2 yards per game, led by QB Colin Kaepernick and his running mates Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. During this eight-game winning streak, they have averaged 446.6 yards on the ground and posted 43 rushing touchdowns. They have to be encouraged the Broncos allowed 320 yards rushing to Fresno State and 514 total yards to Idaho. Nevada however is 2-8 ATS against ranked teams.

One aspect not being discussed, but is very important is the defenses, as Boise State ranks 15th nationally and Nevada 85th. With how efficient the Broncos are on offense, it would seem the only way the Wolf Pack stop them is by forcing turnovers. That thought process is a problem, since Moore and Boise State have committed 10 turnovers all season. Coach Peterson’s club is 10-2 ATS at home after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has seen Boise State go from 10-point favorites, all the way to 14 and now coming down again, with total of 70. Nevada’s explosive offense is 12-4 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game and 16-6 OVER as a road underdog.

Boise State is 9-0 and 8-1 ATS facing Nevada and is 37-19 against the spread as WAC favorite of 10 points or more.

This WAC mega-encounter begins at 10:15 Eastern on ESPN2.


Note-The System, Trend and Free Pick will return tomorrow.

Black Friday could take down college powers

In case you missed it, tomorrow is considered a big shopping day and virtually every store in the country has a deal, no really it its true, saw it on the news and online. It’s called Black Friday because of the frenzied pace of the day at these stores. Today in college football, several teams with high aspirations are looking to avoid the dark cloud that could ruin their dreams today. On this Black Friday, Temple, Cincinnati, Alabama and Pittsburgh all hope to sidestep and not come up empty like many people’s debit accounts at the end of the day. Lines from DiamondSportsbook.com. (Note - This picture is from very first Alabama and Auburn game, the Crimson Tide according to local legend were favored by 7.5, but they had not thought about totals back then.)

Temple (-2.5, 46.5) at Ohio 11:00E ESPNU

After being kicked out of the Big East, Temple (9-2, 8-2 ATS), in just its third season in the MAC, plays for Eastern Division crown at Ohio U. The Owls are strong in the trenches, a mark of a successful football team and will seek to embark their will on the Bobcats. In last three years, Temple is 23-10 ATS in all games. The Bobcats (8-3, 6-4 ATS) have kept the pressure on Temple all season with just one MAC defeat and can play for second conference crown in four years. Ohio U. has split their last 10 home finales of the season, but is 7-3 ATS, including three in a row. Since this series began, the home team is 2-0 SU and ATS. The winner moves on to face Central Michigan next Friday for the MAC championship.

3DW Line – Temple by 5.5

Illinois at Cincinnati (-21, 57.5) 12:00E ABC

Illinois (3-7, 2-7-1 ATS) evidently is the first Big Ten team to aggressively pursue playing games later in the year and not being caught having a month or more before playing a bowl game. Turns out it didn’t matter this year, besides the Illini are 2-15 ATS vs. passing teams like the Bearcats (314 YPG) averaging 275 or more passing yards game. Cincinnati (10-0, 6-4 ATS) finishes off the home portion of schedule and needs this win to set up colossal battle with Pittsburgh for Big East title and more. The Bearcats are off a bye and 14-4 ATS after two home games. This is first ever meeting between these teams and first Big Ten team at Nippert Stadium since 2001.

This game doesn’t directly affect Cincinnati as far as BCS bid goes, however should Texas be upset; the Bearcats want to be at the doorstep to possibly play for national championship. Bettors have a great deal of faith in Cincy, as they opened at -17.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 17

Alabama (-10, 46.5) at Auburn 2:30E CBS

While Michigan State and Ohio State is known as the best college football rivalry, the amount of true hatred that divides the state of Alabama for this matchup is legendary. There is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days.

The Crimson Tide (7-3 ATS) is in a precarious position, thinking about next week’s mega-matchup with Florida, while trying to get there having to visit a dangerous Auburn squad on the road. Alabama is 11-0 for the second straight year and appears to have regained offensive rhythm, with quarterback Greg McElroy back to previous form. The defense is relentless and it will be intriguing to see what Auburn’s offense does against the Crimson Tide. Alabama routed Chattanooga last week in tune-up 45-0 and is 13-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in last game.

Auburn’s offensive firepower has been stymied in last six SEC games, averaging just 21.6 points per contest. Quarterback Chris Todd hasn’t been as effective against stronger competition and turnovers have manifested themselves as a part of the offense. The Tigers (7-4, 5-5 ATS) have started fast the last three games, which would help before crowd looking for blood after Auburn was shutout 36-0 last year in Tuscaloosa, the most lopsided game in 47 years. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in last 10 contests off a loss.

The Tigers are 7-4 ATS in last 11 encounters with Alabama and the home team 4-1 against the number.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10


Pittsburgh (-1, 49) at West Virginia 7:00E ESPN2

This is known as the “Backyard Brawl” and it has grown in stature nationally, with West Virginia (7-3, 3-6 ATS) being a national contender in recent years and Pittsburgh (9-1, 6-2-1 ATS) improving steadily. This year shows a changing of the guard, with the Panthers the high ranked team, playing for a BCS bowl berth. This places the Mountaineers in the enviable position of being the home underdog, as least perception wise and they will look to end two game losing streak to Pitt. West Virginia’s defense will have to prevent Dion Lewis from attacking the weak side like Cincinnati did (9.7 yards per carry) and get pressure on quarterback Bill Stull. The offensive line has to open up more running lanes for Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown needs to find the magic touch he had early in the year. The ‘Teers are 2-6 ATS in home finales.

As much as this game means to Pittsburgh from emotional perspective, the matchup with Cincinnati offers even more with Big East title on the line and BCS bowl berth. Coach Dave Wannstedt won’t want his troops going to battle next week off a loss. Pittsburgh will try to use proven formula this season, have the defensive front four control the other teams offense and keep everything in front of them. On offense, stay balanced, moving the chains and hit enough big plays to surprise the opposing team. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS before their final home game.

This is the 102nd meeting between these bitter rivals and Pittsburgh hasn’t won three straight in 27 years. The Panthers are dismal 5-15 ATS in road games after a two-game home stand

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

Happy Thanksgiving to All

It’s a splendid day to slow down, take a break and enjoy life. Let the big box store’s try and fool us thinking they have safety concerns about the day after Thanksgiving, giving them a reason to be open today. At least most of us understand what today is, a day for thanks for all the good things that come to us. In addition, besides great food and family, we receive a healthy portion of football, to which a few dollars could be set aside to hopefully also make it a profitable day in other ways. Here’s a look at the day time action. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Green Bay at Detroit (+11.5, 47.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 69 games on the national holiday and take a 33-34-2 record into this year’s contest against Green Bay. Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) has dropped five straight up and against the spread on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 168-60 margin, and comes into this game winners of just three of its last 32 games (10-21-1 ATS) dating back to the halfway mark of 2007.

Since Green Bay won 37-26 as a field goal favorite two years ago, coach Mike McCarthy’s team has beaten the Lions four straight times (1-3 ATS), with an average score of 34.8-14.8. In fact, Detroit hasn’t won outright in this series since 2005, a span of eight games (2-6 ATS). The game is very important for Green Bay, 6-4 after beating San Francisco this past Sunday and currently is the top NFC wild card team.

Green Bay’s defense is ranked third overall in yards allowed, but it has been feast of famine in points conceded. In the Packers six victories, they have only surrendered more than 17 points once (5-0-1 ATS) and in the four losses, they have allowed 30 or more points (0-4 ATS). They shutout Detroit 26-0 in earlier meeting and are 9-4 ATS as road favorites, however, a great deal of shifting has to occur with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman done for the year with knee injuries.

The Packers will face a similar Detroit offense in the rematch. The Lions are expected to be without rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and third-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson because of injuries. Daunte Culpepper will again get the start in place of Stafford and had a miserable day the last time (6-for-14, 48 yards, one interception) before leaving in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. It’s unfortunate for coach Jim Schwartz , since Stafford had a career day last week, setting a league mark for most touchdown passes (five) in a game by a rookie. His last one, with no time left, beat Cleveland 38-37. The Lions are 6-16 ATS off one or more straight Overs and 1-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.

Detroit hasn’t won back to back games since games 6-thur-8 in 2007; however Green Bay on this day will often bring out the best in them, just like in 2003, when they won 22-14 as a touchdown underdog. The Lions are 8-0 ATS at home in November against teams off consecutive wins.

3DWLine – Green Bay by 13.5 (color for the day)

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5, 40)

Of late, Thanksgiving Day has been more like Groundhog Day, with Detroit losing early game and Dallas winning big in the late afternoon tilt. In fact, the last Turkey Day wins by the Cowboys have been by 25, 31 and 28 points. They are expected to win big again in ’09, with the Oakland coming to town for the inaugural holiday affair at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium.

Dallas comes in with a 7-3 (5-5 ATS) mark after surviving Washington, but is now just 3-6 ATS as double-digit chalk under Wade Phillips. However, they will be looking to extend a run of 29-14 ATS at home in the month of November.

The Cowboys will like the person who hid the big turkey leg in the back of refrigerator for later consumption, sifting thru the maze of food to find it. After averaging 30.2 points per game starting Oct. 11, Dallas has two touchdowns in the last two games in totaling a mere 14 points, which all came in the fourth quarter. The Boys will be searching for offense and are 29-14 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last outing.

This will be Oakland’s first appearance playing on Thanksgiving since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Raiders (3-7, 5-5 ATS), much like recent times, lost 28-14 to Detroit in that game, with one difference, they were an elite team back in yesteryear.

This is Oakland’s first visit to Big D in 11 years and is coming off rare victory last week in upset of Cincinnati 20-17. Coach Tom Cable had seen enough of JaMarcus Russell and his poor work habits and has turned the team over journeymen Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo star has about one-fifth the ability of Russell, but proved last week he’s a fighter and played inspired football. Among the issues in this contest is the Raiders run defense, which is 30th overall and they are 17-33 ATS versus good rushing teams like Dallas (5 YPC), averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry.

Oakland is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 10-points or more under coach Cable, but if they trail at halftime, don’t expect and comeback from the Silver and Black, as they have scored only 42 points in the final 30 minutes on the season, with a grand total of three trips into the end zone. (None in the third quarter)

The culprit is the lack of passing game, which averages an unfathomable 125 yards per game and Dallas is 15-3 ATS at home vs. destitute passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards per attempt, winning by 17.4 points per game.

3DW Line – Dallas by 16

New York Giants at Denver (+6, 42.5)

The Thanksgiving Night game offers the best matchup of the three holiday tilts, as the Giants will be visiting the Broncos. Both teams started fast, with New York winning its first five games, and Denver winning its first six, but each have since faded. Both teams are 6-4 heading into this contest and in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt.

New York (5-5 ATS) only plays Denver once every four years, but folks of the Big Apple always seem to have fond memories of playing the team in blue and orange. Besides the infamous 39-20 Giants win in Super Bowl XXI, Big Blue fans also remember knocking off a previously undefeated Broncos team in 1998, although John Elway would later lead his team to a second straight Super Bowl title a month later.

The 2009 version of this matchup should also provide a bit of drama since both teams once seemed secure in their playoff prospects, but now find themselves in a perilous position, with the loser lacking relevancy with December arriving next week.

A bye week served New York well and it got by Atlanta in overtime, 34-31. It also helped the Giants that Dallas, Philadelphia and the Falcons all lost while they were idle. A nagging issue has arisen, with the Giants incapable of holding fourth quarter leads, giving up a late touchdown to San Diego, causing a 21-20 defeat and surrendering two TD’s to Atlanta in the final stanza, sending last week’s contest into overtime. Possibly the best news moving forward is the G-Men are 18-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

For the Giants, it’s the first visit to Denver since 2001, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. AFC foes and 9-1 ATS in previous 10 second half contests on the road vs. winning teams.

If any of this is cause for alarm, at least New York won their last game. Denver’s 6-0 start was the talk of the league and rookie head coach Josh McDaniels received more acclaim than the highly praised football drama “The Blind Side,” but four straight losses without covers has squelched all that talk. The latest, a 32-3 blowout defeat to surging San Diego, meant the Broncos (6-4 ATS) relinquished first place. Denver is 5-13 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.

Kyle Orton’s cool and collected presence has given way to injury and ineffectiveness. Hurt in the loss to Washington two weeks ago, Orton was dragged back into the huddle last week after backup Chris Simms turned in three ineffective series and led several trips into the Chargers red zone that came up empty.

The rushing attack has also suffered during the losing skid (82 yards per game), and the tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter has only three rushing touchdowns between them. Though wideout Brandon Marshall continues to have a solid season with 52 catches for 628 yards and six scores, his verbal confrontation on the sideline with Moreno after he suffered goal line fumble, spoke of the frustration this Denver team is experiencing. The Broncos could fall out of the AFC West race fast if they don't pick up a win soon and they are 2-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Bookmaker.com has the Giants as sizable seven-point road favorites, with total of 42. The oddsmakers have ample reasons to prefer New York in this spot since they are 9-1 AT in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second part if the year over the last three seasons. In addition, they are 8-0 ATS in a road conflicts when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Even with last week’s loss, Denver is still 8-3-1 ATS as home underdog and have played UNDER in all five home games in 2009.

This will be the usual 8:20 Eastern start for Thursday night football on the NFL Network, with the Giants 10-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Broncos 12-3 OVER after having lost four out of their last five games.

3DW Line – Giants by 3.5

Steve Makinen of the Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly made contributions to this article.

Texas and Texas A&M in Turkey Day Texas Tussle

This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from playing for the national championship. In many ways, the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) season has paralleled quarterback Colt McCoy’s.

Last season, Big 12 field generals were putting up gaudy figures and scoreboards moved like the numbers on the New York Stock Exchange. However this season, McCoy hasn’t always been sharp, Texas has had their share of slow starts, yet when you take away the Oklahoma defensive struggle, they have outscored teams 45-13, awfully impressive. Coach Mack Brown’s team is 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk.

The presumption is coach Mike Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M is 0-2, losing by 83 points this season. For Aggies fans, it has been both feet in the stirrups and holding the reins tight, with losses of 65-10 and 62-14, mixed in with wins like 56-19 over UAB and 52-30 upset of Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) figures to get leveled by the Longhorns, however two years ago they won in College Station 38-30 as touchdown underdogs and in 2005, gave a game effort before falling 40-29 as 28-point underdogs to then # 2 Texas. Off last week’s 38-3 blowout of Baylor, it’s easy to understand that prosperity seldom takes comfort in Aggie-land, with Texas A&M 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

The Aggies have covered four of last five at home vs. the Horns and have to have quarterback Jerrod Johnson supply a big game. Texas A&M has shown capacity to play well and if pressured, Johnson can test the Texas secondary with his big arm, which could make things interesting. Coach Sherman’s team averages 268.8 yards passing and Texas has surrendered 240 yards or more passing four times this season (2-1-1 ATS), which adds intrigue if nothing else. The Aggies are 18-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 21-point favorites with total of 62.5. The Longhorns should stop the Aggies running game, being first in the nation at 50.1 yards per game allowed. The Horns are 9-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last game. (53 total net rushing yards allowed in last two contests) McCoy should have no problems negotiating 100th ranked Texas A&M defense and they are 24-9 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.

ESPN will have this Thanksgiving treat at 8:00 Eastern, with Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.

Thanks in Advance

I just wanted to apologize for not having the System, Trend and Free Picks the last few days. Trying to compact the work week into fewer days just leaves me without time. I will try and have this return on Friday, if not Saturday at the latest. Again thanks for your patience and understanding.

Doug at 3DW

Thanksgiving and other Thursday NFL Trends

Let’s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn’t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let’s just enjoy what we have.

• If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
• If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
• If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
• If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
• If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
• If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
• Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
• Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
• Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
• Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
• Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
• In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
• Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

• Take the OVER on turkey consumption.
• Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.
• Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.
• Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.
• Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.
• Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.
• Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

College Football's Best Rivalries Betting Info

The fabric of college football is wrapped in its traditions and many of its colorful rivalries that make college football such a great sport. This upcoming week, many of the more historic matchups will take place yet again this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

On Thursday night, No. 3 Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-6, but 8-2-1 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a leftover turkey leg.

On Friday afternoon, there is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter.

The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson and Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 triumph.

No.2 Alabama can’t afford a misstep if it expects to keep national championship hopes alive. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series 39-33-1 and will face a vengeful Auburn squad who was embarrassed 36-0 last season, the most lop-sided margin in the series since 1962. This will be Tigers coach Gene Chizik’s first real involvement in this rivalry, rest assured he’s heard about its importance since his hiring. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of Alabama if they could win for the seventh time (4-3 ATS) in the last eight years. The home team however is a dismal 5-9 against the spread.

The action really picks up on Saturday with the Egg Bowl rivalry, as Mississippi heads over to Starkville to renew unpleasantries with the Bulldogs. This match-up is best described as a “family feud” as read in William Barner’s book on the history of the rivalry. Back in the old days, fans would break out into fights before, during and after the games. In 1926, the fighting got so ugly after the first Ole Miss victory in 13 years that officials came up with the concept of the Golden Egg Trophy, awarded to the winner in a formal ceremony each year. It was supposed to cut down on such ugliness, instead the fans just fought outside the stadium as opposed to in it. The Rebels have carried the action most of the last decade, being an underdog just once 2001. Ole Miss has won five of last seven and is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 contests.

A regionalized rivalry known as the “Border War” between Kansas and Missouri will once again have great meaning to the combatants. This will be the third consecutive year they will meet in neutral Kansas City (19 of the first 20 games were played in K.C.). Surprisingly this is the second oldest rivalry in D-1 (FBS), with the winner earning The Indian War Drum. The underdog is 9-5 ATS the last 14 years, which includes the Jayhawks 40-37 upset as 15-point dogs last year. The all-time series record is a dead heat after all these years at 54-54, with 9 ties.

The “Bedlam Game” will be played in Norman this season, when the Oklahoma State Cowboys arrive. It’s hard to almost call this a rivalry since Oklahoma leads with an all-time record of 79-16-7. Billionaire Boone Pickens is doing his best to change all that, upgrading the facilities in Stillwater to be better than any in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. Unfortunately, he can’t buy the Cowboys many victories since his increased involvement in his alma mater. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 fracases.

The battle of Palmetto State is a heated rivalry with origins back to the 1880’s, concerning historic tensions regarding their respective charters. The two institutions are separated by just over 125 miles, holding the longest uninterrupted series in the South and the third longest uninterrupted series overall, having been played every year since 1909. The meeting has a strange ritual dating back to early 1900’s and is carried on today. Without going into all the long details, South Carolina and Clemson University bring a made-up symbol about the other and burns it on Friday night before the big encounter. The 2004 game is the most recent contest etched in the minds of the schools and people across the country, when both teams started brawling at the conclusion of Clemson’s 29-7 victory. Each team had won a total of six games that year and was technically bowl eligible. However, both schools elected to forfeit their postseason opportunity because of the shameful nature of the fight. This series typifies as much as any the frenzied excitement, with the visitor 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings. How Clemson approaches this battle will be intriguing, with more important game against Georgia Tech next for ACC title.

Georgia and Georgia Tech can best be explained by book Bill Cromartie penned – Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate. These teams can’t even agree on the number of games they have competed on the gridiron. Georgia Tech’s records show two more then Georgia’s, as the Bulldogs do not acknowledge the games played in 1943-44, since many of their players were in World War II. Georgia has a 20-game edge in the series after the Yellow Jackets thrilling 45-42 upset last year in Athens. That was coach Mark Richt’s first loss (7-1, 5-1-1 ATS) in this encounter, raising the visitors record to 9-2 ATS since 1998.

Always of significance is the BYU and Utah conflict, known as the “Holy War”. The term Holy War, rather than denoting a war between religions, refers to the intensity of the competitors. Both teams have 9-2 record and the fierceness of these battles in Provo and Salt Lake City is legendary in these parts. These conflicts are annually very close. Only twice in the last 12 years has a game been decided by more than a touchdown. The underdog is a top quality 12-4 ATS.

Florida State and Florida is all about protecting the home turf as demonstrated by 15-6 ATS record in which some of the best athletes in college football have played in this battle. Florida has had the better of it in recent years with five consecutive wins and like most years, the outcome has national implications.

Don't blame us for Ball State and Western Michigan

For most of the season, the Broncos defense has been a liability allowing 28 points per game and ranking 107th in total defense, surrendering 437.3 yards per game. Ten days ago the defense as a group stepped up and forced six turnovers against Eastern Michigan and won handily 35-13 as 13-point favorites. They will attempt to generate the same kind of pressure and hard hitting against Ball State on ESPN2 MAC contest.

Western Michigan (5-6, 3-8 ATS) players after a long season, seem to understand finally what is needed. “I felt things pick up right from the beginning,” Broncos safety Jamail Berry said. “We just came out with the emphasis (that) we need turnovers. Anything’s possible from the D-line all the way back to the secondary. That’s just what we tried to do.”

The Broncos have not been a good cover team the last few years, sporting a 10-22 ATS record. Quarterback Tim Hiller has 98 career touchdown passes and two more ties the MAC’s all-time record and a victory keeps a glimmer of hope for a bowl invite at 6-6.

Ball State (1-10, 5-6 ATS) fell off the planet this season after playing in the conference championship game a season ago. The Cardinals suffered extensive losses on offense and it showed, averaging 18.9 points per game.

They also lost their coach Brady Hoke, who maybe knew what he was doing in getting out and taking San Diego State head job. Ball State made a curious hire in naming Stan Parrish as head coach. Though his credentials as assistant are excellent, coming into this position his record was 2-31-1 and has kept along same career path. After being blasted by Central Michigan 35-3 in final home game and passing for 105 yards, Ball State is 17-6 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last their game.

Bookmaker.com has Western Michigan as 11-point favorites with total 51.5 and the Broncos are 12-5 ATS in home season finales. Ball State is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.

This utterly fascinating (really?) MAC matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and Ball State is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight meetings.

The beginning of holiday week

We should have gone 3-0 yesterday, but the Giants lousy pass defense couldn’t hold a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, allowing us to slip to 2-1. Today out Best System is in the NFL and is in article listed below. The Top Trend heads all the way out to Maui and the Sal’s Top Free Play will arrive shortly.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – The Colts defeated the Ravens, 17-15, to continue their recent trend of extending their winning streak in closely-contested games. The Colts' three other victories this month had come by scores of 18-14 over the 49ers, 20-17 over the Texans and 35-34 over the Patriots, and as in their win over the Ravens, the Colts had trailed in the fourth quarter in each game. Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games after trailing during the fourth quarter in each of those games.

The Colts became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games in the same season by a total margin of 10-or-fewer points. And they did it by filling an inside straight, having won those games by margins of one, two, three and four points. The previous record was set by the 1986 Giants: en route to winning the Super Bowl, Bill Parcells's team defeated the Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and Broncos by a combined margin of 11 points. Thanks, Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) See the Monday night system in below article

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1-12 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s says take the points with the Titans, he's also playing them on the money line.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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Houston in Big Division Matchup

Two weeks after Texans suffered a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis; their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessee’s Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.

The 5-4 Texans have had 15 days ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, as Kris Brown’s last second potential game-tying 42-yard field goal attempt sailed wide left, and now they prepare for first true franchise run toward the postseason. How Houston (5-3-1 ATS) comes out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much they’ve grown. They have won two straight against Tennessee, but only by a combined four points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 4-10 ATS against a team who won last game by 14 or more points.

The Tennessee Titans (3-6, 4-5 ATS) have opened a Pandora’s Box of questions in winning three in a row after losing first six games of the season. Should Tennessee and coach Jeff Fisher be praised for turning season around or chastised for protracted beginning of the year? Coach Fisher, who didn’t appear to be any fan of Vince Young, was left with little choice but to play the former Texas star after humbling 59-0 pasting by New England.

Young has brought energy to the offense in his three starts and been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in leading his squad to a trio of wins and covers.

Coach Fisher’s club is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six AFC South contests, however is 12-3 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Houston as four-point favorites with a total of 48 and Schaub assuredly will attack the Titans 31st ranked pass defense from the start. The Texans are 13-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt and are 12-3 OVER versus division opponents over the last three seasons.

Tennessee’s running game keys their offense and they are 16-6 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Tonight’s visitors are 10-2 UNDER on the road revenging a close loss by seven points or less.

Tennessee covers if they run the ball effectively against Houston’s 14th ranked run defense. The Texans are not known for gap control, which is real plus for Johnson, who can pop into the secondary in a heartbeat. Last week Buffalo made life tough on the Titans by playing eight-men in the box and press coverage on their unimpressive receivers, before self-destructing. With Houston having two weeks to prepare, Tennessee will see more the same, which means taking shots down the field. Young’s arm is more than strong enough; he just needs the pass catchers to make a few plays. After a mediocre start, the Titans pass rush is coming along and they will need to pressure Schaub. Monday night road teams with only one appearance on the season are 34-17-2 ATS, including 5-2 ATS in 2009.

Houston covers if they create a semblance of a running game with zone-blocking scheme. Granted, the Texans are 28th rushing the pigskin, but Tennessee is nothing special stopping the run (16th) and is vulnerable against teams that run and pass the ball effectively. This helps Schaub, whose been forced to throw the ball too often, which has led to nine picks. Just keeping the Titans honest on defense allows Houston to play to their strength, the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against them. Though Young has shown greater maturity and better decision-making, a steady pass rush that doesn’t allow him to leave the pocket makes a below average passer even worse. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Texans post-bye week games since 2003.

Monday Night System – Same as last week’s, Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (12-2 ATS L16Y, 2-0 this season)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Seeking the Big Bounce Back

Hoy Cow, got kicked around but good yesterday with 0-4 record. We’ll look to bounce back immediately, starting with NFL system that is 86.6 percent. The Top Trend is once again perfect, just in the opposite direction. Sal is back and gives out his top play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I’ve been getting my can kicked in college football (below.500) and was talking to friend from Las Vegas whom I haven’t spoken to since early September. He’s up on all happenings on the betting scene in the town and he had a very interesting observation about college football. He said guys that are math-based handicappers are having a below average to bad years (that would be me), but streak players or guys that fly from the seat of their pants are doing quite well, because how they look at numbers and situations is different and things have gone their way.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites off a bye week that lost by four or less points in their last outing as a favorite. Since 1990, this system is 13-2 ATS and is focused on the Giants this week.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, losing by more than two points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) One of my favorite guys in Sal, who is on 14-5 roll in the NFL, including his sweet call on Miami on Thursday. Today he doesn’t care what the price is on the Chargers, take them.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed NFL Game of the Week.

The Platinum Sheet has an expert hitting 57 percent ATS picking ALL NFL games.

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.