Betting Options for NBA Draft

It’s nothing short of amazing how drafts in various sports have become a cottage industry onto themselves. The next one of importance is in the NBA. The fine folks of ESPN will have enough visible personnel during its broadcast of who is going where in professional basketball, they could invade Malta. They will tell the story of what happens, while you can turn into recreational sports bettor and play along making prop bets on the various happenings. Here’s hoping Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have another on-screen argument and what to look for from the draft.

Most NBA experts that follow the draft believe this could be one of the craziest and most entertaining nights of professional basketball, without one center jump. Speaking to an avid NBA bettor and one who follows the game 24/7, he points to organizational philosophies making the difference. “One player can turn a NBA franchise around. The Bulls took Derrick Rose, in the playoffs with brighter future. It comes down to front office types making shrewd decisions. Take the right player, fortunes will rise; take the wrong player, Hello lottery again.”

One wretched franchise that can change what has become a way of life is the Los Angeles Clippers. They have the first pick and the world expects them to take Blake Griffin. He has the look and determination of a player who COULD (not will) lead the Clips out of the NBA abyss. The Clippers might be wise to sign his brother Taylor as free agent and keep him on the team as 12th man and have Blake be happier to start his NBA career.

From here, the NBA water gets a littler murky, though certain things should happen. (Picks based on current slots as of writing)

Player to get Drafted First from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hasheem Thabeet -350
James Harden +225

This is not as easy as it looks since Memphis would prefer to move out of No. 2 slot. Thabeet is the obvious choice to build with A.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, however questions surround how good a defender and rebounder he will be a next level. Harden is actually a more proven commodity, but might be too similar to Mayo and appears to have less upside than Thabeet. The Grizzlies want to believe they are getting the real deal and not taking the next Andrew Bogut. Play Thabeet.

Stephen Curry -200
Johnny Flynn +155

Curry is the correct choice; nevertheless, as mentioned, different front offices are not always in sync. Sacramento has the fourth pick and wants a point guard. Depending on the day, time or if the humidity is a little higher in Sac-Town, the Kings have professed to like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Flynn and Brandon Jennings name has started popping up. In the end, Sacramento takes Evans based on last impression and Curry goes to Minnesota, ahead of Flynn.

Tyler Hansbrough -300
Chase Budinger +200

Going to play the dog here with Budinger and here’s why. When it comes down to it, Hansbrough’s lack of athletic ability will scare teams off, in spite of toughness which many teams could use. (I’m hoping Charlotte doesn’t screw this up) The absolute perfect place for Hansbrough to flourish to start professional career is Utah, which has 20th pick. Though Budinger isn’t all that well liked with many GM’s believing he is nearly finished product, the Philadelphia 76ers need players that can shoot, which is the former volleyball player’s greatest strength. Granted, Philly needs a point guard for aging before your eyes Andre Miller at No. 17, nonetheless having player off the bench to score immediately is more pressing need.

Wayne Ellington -140
DaJaun Summers Even

This is a hard play to make, since it becomes about need. A team like Atlanta could use another outside shooter, which Ellington is. Though there are reservations about his ability to put the ball on the deck and create, as a spot-up shooter, as good as you will find in the draft. Summers is a fit for a team like Memphis looking for size and is interchangeable at three or four spot. A smallish play on Ellington because he can make shots and Summers has been more unreliable.

Brandon Jennings -110
Jrue Holiday -130

Any NBA General Manager only has to think back to Sebastian Telfair, when considering Brandon Jennings. If I lose this wager, will call up offending team and ask them to bet me double or nothing which player has better NBA career.

Darren Collison (UCLA) - When Will He be Drafted (1st or 2nd Round)

First –Even
Second -140

Collison goes in the first round, with Oklahoma City and Portland as possible destinations. I would shocked if the Lakers took him at #29 since they already have one UCLA point guard with marginal ability in Jordan Farmar.

DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -160
15th or later +120

Though his knees are a concern to potential suitors, Blair’s crew has supplied the right information about his health and his stock has risen as much as anyone’s. Top 14 choices New Jersey and Indiana make the most sense for the big man. Bet the -160.

Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -170
15th or later +130

Henderson got better each season at Duke, proving he’s willing to do what it takes to be a pro. With too many attitude players with potentially bigger upsides having egos already that of superstar, having the chance to pick more level-headed player has to make lottery teams like Toronto or Charlotte pleased. Take the -170.

Ty Lawson (North Carolina) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice +120
15th or later -160

Lawson could go to Pacers early, but his lack of size and potential problematic ability to find clear shots have him falling out of the first 14 selections.

DeMar DeRozan (USC) - Over/Under Draft Position

Over 10.5 -Even
Under 10.5 -140

This is the perfect example why GM’s and coaches can’t sleep nights. DeRozan has Top 5 ability, nobody questions that. At USC as a freshman, he showed his brilliance and lack of maturity almost evenly. There are genuine concerns about his true readiness at this level. Toronto at No.9 is the team most in need of his skills, however, DeRozan has made it known he’s not cool about the idea of playing north of the border. Take the Over.

Number of North Carolina players chosen in first round

One - +600
Two - +200
Three – minus 200
Four - +800

The Tar Heels are the national champions and will get the respect they likely deserve and will have three players chosen in the first round, all who have been mentioned already, leaving no need to be redundant as to who they are.

NIT has Quality Contest for Bettors Attention

Normally, the early rounds of the NIT are about as anticipated as another episode of “Chuck “on NBC. That changes this year, at least for one game, when Davidson travels to Moraga, CA. to take on St. Mary’s in the second round no less of the National Invitational Tournament.

What has caused the uproar of having the 3,500 seat McKeon Pavilion sold out in the fastest time ever in school history, well, just like in the days of the Old West, a hotshot gunslinger is coming to town and plain folks want to see what he has and the locals want to see how he holds up against their guy, who’s returning to form after being wounded.

Davidson (27-7, 14-16-2 ATS) has Stephen Curry who took the Wildcats within one late missed three-point shot of being one of the biggest surprise Final Four teams in years, losing to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. Davidson was upset by College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament semi-finals, which relegated them to the NIT this season. The Wildcats simply are not as good as last year’s squad, but have continued to show to be a wise road wager since Curry stepped on campus with a 29-11-1 ATS record as visitors.

St. Mary’s (27-6, 17-12 ATS) is excited about the opportunity to play in nationally recognized contest, yet you know they believe it would be them, not Arizona, in the Sweet 16 if they would have been given the chance. The Patty Mills injury and subsequent play sent the Gaels in this direction and the best thing they can do is win the tournament to prove their point.

St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and Mills looks to be at or near full strength, scoring 27 points against Washington State in NIT opener. Curry laid 32 on South Carolina, his 15th game of 30 or more this season, and relishes the competition.

“It's beyond just me and him (Mills) out there playing, “Curry said. “ I'm just excited to go out there and play and take on a new, different opponent."

While both schools easily score in the 70’s, the coaches will stress defense. Davidson holds opposing teams to 39.6 percent shooting and is 15-4 and 9-8 ATS on the road. St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good at 41.3 percent, nonetheless holds opponents to fewer points at 63.8 points per game, compared to the Wildcats 65.5.

Davidson is a four-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 143, which is a role they have embraced, posting 11-1 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is 14-1 and 6-6 ATS at home and is 7-1 against the number when a favorite or underdog of 10 or less points on home floor.

"The Steph-Patty Mills matchup, everyone is talking about it," Davidson forward Steve Rossiter said. "I just got to make sure I don't get caught watching during the game."

ESPN2 hopes people are interested enough to want to check out the action, though the 11:30 Eastern time slot might be arduous for those in the East and Midwest. Keep in mind Davidson is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less, winning by an average of 1.6 points.

College Hoops Futures Bets

In last week’s college basketball article, I looked at the past five years of Final Four teams and their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as well as the differential between the two. Using the minimum numbers for each category that occurred over the past five seasons, I made a list of teams who achieved as high or higher number in all three areas. My list of teams numbered sixteen last week.

After using current data, five teams fell out of my qualifying Final Four list and one new one emerged to reduce this week’s slate to 12 teams. Three teams fell out because their defensive efficiency number worsened above the minimum, Missouri, Utah, and Georgetown. Illinois and Kentucky’s offensive efficiency numbers were reduced below our required minimum. Any of these teams can show up on the list again. This week’s list is as follows ranked by the best margin between offensive and defensive efficiency:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Gonzaga
6. West Virginia
7. Arizona State
8. Wake Forest
9. Washington
10. Butler
11. Xavier
12. Villanova

I like to look for inside-outside scoring capabilities on a team. A team cannot rely too much on any one player for their points. Balance is key. Having at least two good shooters from three-point range is a strong benefit when playing against a zone. Sure, players like Davidson’s Stephen Curry are special and many times can carry a team on their shoulders. However, it is very difficult for one player to be able to do that for the five NCAA Tournament wins it takes to become national champion.

The past five years has seen two number-one seeds playing in the championship game three times with the other two years having #2 versus #3 seeds to win it all. Out of the 20 Final Four teams, every squad has been no lower than a #3 seed except for two #4’s, one #5, and a rogue #11, George Mason in 2005-06.

In looking at wagering on a futures bet to win it all, I didn’t want to get worse than 10 to 1 odds so that eliminated a number of my teams. Let’s examine some of the ones I considered.Villanova’s 6-8 forward Sr. Dante Cunningham is having a breakout season leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. However, after improving last season, Jr. Scottie Reynolds has digressed in shooting this year behind the arc while falling to a field goal percentage of 39.0%. Nova is only 2-4 this season against teams in the top 50 RPI. The Wildcats should fall from my list of top Final Four candidates soon.

West Virginia plays tremendous defense but has had difficulties closing games out. While 6-7 Jr. Da’Sean Butler is an all-Big East caliber player, the Mountaineers have two freshmen in their top 5 minute earners with one of those being their point guard, Truck Bryant. They also have the lowest offensive effective field goal percentage of our 12 teams and along with Washington, are the only team to be below 50% in that category.

Xavier played an exceptional non-conference schedule this year helping prepare them for the Atlantic 10 conference race. They have beaten the likes of Missouri, Memphis, and LSU. Their two losses this season were against fellow elite teams on our list, Duke and Butler. Playing their worst game of the year, the Musketeers were down by 31 points at halftime to Duke before losing by 18. The next game was against Butler where Xavier turned the ball over 17 times and put the Bulldogs at the free-throw line for 33 attempts where Butler shot 78.8%. The bright side was they held Butler to just 35.1% shooting.The Musketeers are a well balanced team with three players scoring in double-digits. Any one of five players can go off for 20. A good inside-outside combo in F Derrick Brown and G C.J. Anderson, a gritty competitor. The team shoots the ball well aided by a lot of back screens, play very good defense, and have the best rate in the country at getting to the charity stripe. Their downside is they have the worst turnover rate of our 12 squads, losing the rock on 22.1% of their possessions, 247th in the country. Xavier doesn’t get the national publicity they deserve. They normally play a top 50 non-conference schedule and have had very good post-season success. The Musketeers have gone to three straight NCAA tournaments and seven in the last eight years. They made the Elite Eight last season before losing to UCLA in the West regional final and are one of only nine programs to make multiple appearances in the final eight in the last five years. Xavier is a projected #4 seed by collegerpi.com. At 75 to 1 current odds, that is a long-shot wager I am going to take. I am not saying the Musketeers are going to win it all, but this is a wager that has value to me.

While Butler has beaten Xavier and UAB with their only loss coming at Ohio State by 3 points, I cannot take a flyer on the Bulldogs to capture the college crown as they are ranked 340th out of 344 Division 1 schools in experience. Butler has two freshmen and two sophomores starting.

The University of Washington is playing the best defense they have for the past six seasons, including when they made the Sweet 16 in 2006 led by Brandon Roy where they lost in overtime to UConn. The Huskies don’t make many three’s ranking in the bottom ten nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc. Washington didn’t play a very tough non-con slate losing to Kansas and Florida in a November tournament in Kansas City. The only other Top 50 school they played was a win at home over Oklahoma State. U-Dub is the second worst shooting team and they have the worst defensive effective field goal percentage out of our elite dozen. This past weekend on the road they beat another of our group, Arizona State, after they had dropped a game to Arizona two nights earlier. The Huskies are led by Frosh sparkplug PG Isaiah Thomas and the physical 6-7 Sr Jon Brockman. Even though the Pac-10 is down this year and I don’t like the UW coach very much plus I have my doubts on the Huskies’ true defensive capabilities, at odds of 100 to 1 to becoming the champions, I am going to skip taking the wife out to dinner one night this week and go drop a Benjamin on a Washington futures bet.

After all, who thought the Arizona Cardinals would be within three minutes of winning the Super Bowl?I listed the odds for the teams on my list of winning the championship courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Wake Forest was 14 to 1. At that price I put money on Wake to end up #1. Wake plays at a frenetic pace, seventh fastest in D-1. The Deamon Deacons play superb defense, #5 in defensive efficiency. Even though they have exceptional size, they cover the perimeter like a blanket ranking third in D-1 in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They have beaten two teams on my current list, North Carolina and Duke, and two others that are close to being on the list, BYU and Clemson. They are also exceptional in a stat I like to look at, defensive assist-to-field goal ratio. Wake gets to march to the line frequently ranking 20th in their percentage free throw attempts to field goal attempts, 45.4. Collegerpi.com has Wake as one of their current #1 seeds.

I mentioned that Villanova is a team that will probably slide off my list of potential FF teams, and obviously there are some who could possibly move on to the list. Purdue is projected as a #4 seed and just needs to get and stay as healthy as possible while adding one more point to their OE. Rick Pitino’s Louisville is doing their normal second half of the season surge and only need to improve their OE two points to qualify for our list. While Oklahoma is listed as one of the four #1 seeds by collegerpi.com, they have to improve their defensive efficiency by more than 2 points to make my potential Final Four list.

Sure, this is just the first week of February. It is never too early to look at futures bets. It is similar to playing the lottery, but the people who had Celtics futures tickets last year aren’t complaining.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority drops by to share his wisdom.