2010 CONFERENCE USA FOOTBALL PREVIEW

2010 CONFERENCE USA FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

‘Welcome Back’ is the theme in 2010 in the C-USA. Its 2009 Most Valuable Player (Houston QB Case Keenum), its 2009 Defensive Player of the Year (UCF DE Bruce Miller) and its 2009 Special Teams Player of the Year (East Carolina WR/KR Dwayne Harris), all seniors, are back,

In addition, former Memphis RB Larry Porter and former ECU DB Ruffin McNeill each return to their alma maters as new head coaches in 2010.

This up and coming loop has sent six teams to post-season in four of the past five seasons, while going 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS against .666 or greater opposition in those games.

Southern Miss takes an eight-year bowl skein into this campaign.

SMU was the most-improved team in the FBS during the 2009 season. The Mustangs won seven more games last year than they did in 2008.

In closing, remember this about this never-say-die conference: since its inception, CUSA underdogs are 21-13 ATS in non-conference battles in which both teams are undefeated, including 17-8 ATS as a dog of seven or more points.

It’s like John Sebastian once said, “Yeah we tease him a lot cause we've hot him on the spot, welcome back,
welcome back, welcome back…

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – 8 / 9
TEAM THEME: BLAZING INFERNO
The Blazers have improved each year under HC Neil Callaway but the Birmingham brigade is clamoring for the 4th-year HC to bring home UAB’s first winning season (and bowl appearance) since 2004. It appears Callaway is starting to buckle under the pressure and is looking for the quick fix as he signed a nation-high 12 junior-college transfers. “We got a good mixture of people at every position,’ said Callaway. “I really think we helped ourselves at every spot and with the number of JC guys that we’ve signed, I think we got some immediate help.” Help is on the way in the form of nine returning starters for a defense that slipped a titch in 2009. The 22nd-ranked offense, which was boosted by the return of the entire unit last year, should once again be productive with the return of eight starters – though Callaway will have to replace versatile QB Joe Webb. The heat is on.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. East Carolina (11/13)

CENTRAL FLORIDA – 8 / 7
TEAM THEME: ODD OCCURRENCE
George O’Leary may want to turn the calendar ahead – say a year from now. The 7th-year HC has had terrific success in odd numbered years (26-14, three bowl appearances) while the even-numbered seasons have been brutal (8-27, zero bowls). If 2010 is going to show any promise, it will start with a rush defense that was tops in Conference USA and No. 4 nationally. C-USA defensive player of the year, Bruce Miller, returns for his senior season. The All-America candidate leads all active players nationally with 27 sacks and 44 tackles for a loss. Offensively, junior RB Byrnn Harvey (1,109 rushing yards, 14 TD’s) spearheads the Knights attack. Harvey actually had more yards in his sophomore season than highly-touted Kevin Smith had in his second year with the Knights. ‘Even’ though the calendar says 2010, the Knights ‘oddly’ enough should be competitive.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (10/6)

EAST CAROLINA – 5 / 2
TEAM THEME: ‘RUFFIN IT’
After escalating the ECU program to new heights, Skip Holtz couldn’t say no to a multi-million dollar offer from South Florida – his reward for putting the Pirates on the map. Enter former ECU defensive back and assistant, Ruffin McNeill. College football’s 13th minority head coach inherits a defense that led the nation in red-zone scoring defense (71.6%) and one that enjoyed the squad’s highest take-away total (34) since 1996. It may be awhile before Greenville sees those numbers again as McNeil also inherits a stop unit that returns just two starters and no linemen. While Holtz had the luxury of 52 returning letterman and 16 returning starters in 2009, Ruffin won’t enjoy the same – just 43 returnees and 7 total starters back for 2010. Early stops at Blacksburg and Chapel Hill will have us jumping ship before this voyage gets set for its September sail.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (11/26)

MARSHALL – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE DOCTOR IS IN
A native of Hurricane, WV and widely regarded as one of the country’s best recruiters, John ‘Doc’ Holliday brings an impressive resumé to Huntington. An associate head coach at West Virginia and Florida, Holliday will need to operate with the skill of a surgeon in order to escape the wrath of a brutal season-opening schedule that is laced with seven consecutive bowl teams – who combined for a 60-33 record. Fourteen returning starters, including a pair of QB’s that have started 24 games the past two seasons, should help in the procedure. So should a home field that has seen the Herd post a 118-19 record at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Need some bar bet material? That .866 win percentage is No. 1 all-time in Division 1 football as Alabama (.825) and Bear Bryant Stadium rank a distant second. Holliday will like those house calls.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (10/23)

MEMPHIS – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: PORTER HOUSE
When Tommy West was pink-slipped in early November last season, he held a fiery press conference saying, “This is not a good day at the office. We’ve got to help this football program… or do away with it.” Help is on the way in the form of new coach Larry Porter, former MSU running back and most recently RB coach and chief recruiter at LSU. Asking every player to ‘Invest in the Helmet’, Porter contends all positions are open. Porter’s first priority will be patching up a defense that was over 100 YPG worse last season than in 2008.With only one QB on the roster that has taken a collegiate snap and rail-thin at WR where the top two receivers in school history are gone, it may be a while before dividends from his recruiting efforts are realized. Porter and the Tigers look to be raw in 2010.
PASS

SOUTHERN MISS – *4 / 9
TEAM THEME: HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS
We’re not quite ready to give another tip of the hat to Larry Fedora but the third-year head coach has kept one important Southern Miss tradition going – winning. Thanks to a season-ending five-game win streak in 2008 and season-opening hat trick in 2009, the Golden Eagles have recorded 16 straight winning campaigns… albeit, by the skin of their teeth. But 2009 saw the both sides of the ball take a slight step backwards. Nine returning starters should help the stop unit turn it around but improving an offense that loses record-setting RB Damion Fletcher and four offensive linemen will be Fedora’s main concern. The good news is there is plenty of experience at the QB position with the expected return of Austin Davis, who sat out most of last season after tearing a ligament in his foot. ‘Favre’ be it for us to say, but something could be amiss in Hattiesburg this season.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/30)

West Division

HOUSTON – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A ‘CASE’ FOR THE HEISMAN
QB Case Keenum and his supporting cast are back and the Cougars are billing him as a legitimate Heisman candidate. And why not? His numbers speak for themselves as he is on the cusp of breaking every NCAA total offense and passing mark. With his top three wideouts all back (each with 85 or more catches), Keenum will likely become the first QB in college football history to throw for 5,000 yards three years in succession. How good has this offense been, you ask? Over the past two seasons, the Cougars have been held to under 28 points just three times while ringing up 40 or more points on 16 occasions! A couple of disappointing season-ending losses, including a throttling by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, should have Keenum and company on the offensive early – and quite often.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (11/5)

RICE – 9 / 9
TEAM THEME: BABY OWLS
The biggest collapse of all FBS programs in 2009 (from 10-3 to 2-10) resulted in a major overhaul to David Bailiff’s coaching staff. In Bailiff’s defense (or lack of one last year), 75 starts were lost to injuries. As a result, 14 starters on the 2009 squad were either freshmen or sophomores on the two-deep roster, matching Louisiana Tech for the youngest starting lineup in the nation. In fact, 22 Owls made their first collegiate start last year. The owlets started to show a little maturity late in the season with a pair of home wins over Tulane and UTEP. The good news is 18 starters who experienced those victories are back. The bad news is they may have to wait an extra week as their 2010 opener finds them playing Texas. That may not be so bad because, like last year, there’s only one way to go – and that’s up!
PLAY ON: as dog vs. SMU (10/2) – *KEY

SMU – *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: PAROLED
Apparently there IS life after death. 2009 saw the Mustangs go bowling for the first time since 1984, two years prior to their infamous ‘death sentence.’ It didn’t take long for June Jones to put his stamp on the program as both the offense and defense took huge strides. After being outscored 458-202 in 2008, the Mustangs got the better of the opposition in 2009 by a 380-359 count – a 277-point turnaround! No wonder they improved a nation’s-best seven games last season. They were also the only team in the country to outgain Houston during the regular season and hold Nevada’s potent rushing attack to over 200 yards below their season average. All this, with the 4th youngest team in the nation as 29 off 44 players on the two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores. With a target squarely on their backs, can the Mustangs once again live to tell about it?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UTEP (11/6)

TEXAS EL PASO – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: DASHING AND DARING
It’s been five years since HC Mike Price has brought a winner to West Texas but there’s a lot to fall in love with in El Paso this year – and it’s not a Mexican girl. QB Trevor Vittatoe, who broke UTEP passing records with three 3,000-yard passing seasons, is back. So is RB Donald Buckram (1,594 rushing yards) – one of only two backs (Toby Gerhart) to rush for 200-plus yards in three separate contests last season. “I think he’ll be even better this year. He’s bigger. He could be 200 pounds by the time the season starts,” gushes Price of Buckram. Eight all-conference honorees also return to El Paso in 2010. The schedule lends support to a big year, as well, as the Miners face only one team in the first eight games that sported a winning record in 2009. If Price can figure out a way to win the close ones (lost five games by a TD or less), then this season could be as “wild as the West Texas wind.”
PLAY ON: as dog vs. UAB (10/16)

TULANE – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOLEDO, TOO LATE
After three seasons and a 9-27 record, Bob Toledo has learned that coaching in New Orleans is not so easy. That is, if you’re the head man at Tulane. With the loss of leading rusher Andre Anderson, another big losing campaign is likely and it’s doubtful Toledo will be back to man the Green Wave sidelines for his wooden anniversary. While there are no ball carriers with any significant experience on the roster, QB Ryan Griffin is back after starting the final six games and putting up solid numbers (1,143 yards, 8 TD’s) as a freshman in 2009. Toledo will have to improve on a 1-7 conference mark in each of the last two seasons if he has any chance of staying Green. A four-game home stand late in the year may help his cause but the feeling here is it will be too little, too late. Wave goodbye, Bob.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/9)

TULSA – *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: MISSION: REVENGE
A 5-7 campaign, on the heels of four straight winning seasons in which they averaged 9.5 wins a year, makes the Hurricane a certified ‘Mission Team’ in 2010. The mission will be to rejuvenate an offense that dropped 160 YPG and 18 PPG. The mission leader is QB G.J. Kinne who passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TD’s, while also leading the team in rushing yards (393 yards) and TD’s (5). Kinne is the only player in school history to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in the same game. WR/KR Damaris Johnson, the nation’s 2009 leader in all-purpose yards with a 224 YPG, looks to make another statement in 2010. Three of the top five tacklers return to a defense that actually improved in points against but slipped in total yards allowed. Despite a road schedule that includes four winning teams and Notre Dame, a soft home schedule makes this mission entirely possible.
PLAY ON: vs. Southern Miss (11/27) – *Key as dog

New Year's Eve Treats

New Year’s Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you don’t need to be a hermit, it’s not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks he’s superman and parties like it’s 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

It’s déjà vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houston’s a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS ’05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the “Backup Bowl” as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesn’t have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasn’t as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooner’s bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

3DW Line –Oklahoma by 7

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium – Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

3DW Line –Missouri by 3

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but that’s hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesn’t correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

3DW Line –Minnesota by 1

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager – For each of these teams, the goal is the same it’s just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

3DW Line –Virginia Tech by 6

Great start to college football Saturday

By game time on Saturday, two more conference tiles will have been decided over the last couple of games and now it’s time to fill the last five spots, which includes four specific BCS bowl slots. Starting in Pittsburgh, the home of the defending professional football and hockey champions and the Pirates (keeps things in balance), the Big East championship game will be played. Over in Greenville, NC, where they average 50 inches of rain a year, the Conference USA crown will be determined, with the winner advancing to the Liberty Bowl. Let the fun begin.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12:00E ABC

The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.

Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.

Bookmaker.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.

This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 4.5

Houston at East Carolina – 12:00E ESPN2

It took all season, but two of the teams that were thought to be in the Conference USA championship game in early October have emerged as division champions. East Carolina held off Southern Mississippi 25-20 and now has a chance to be back-to-back champs. The Pirates (8-4, 5-6 ATS) advanced to the championship contest based on many of the same things that helped them all season. Sixth-year senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney led the way throwing for 269 yards and the defensive line made play after play, allowing East Carolina survive. East Carolina will be the host for this title tilt, however they are only .500 against the spread in last 52 home games.

Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) was supposed to play in this game a season ago, but was derailed by Rice. The Cougars made sure that didn’t happen two years in a row by obliterating the Owls 73-14 and moving on to first championship conflict. Quarterback Case Keenum will bring the nation’s top passing game into Greenville, averaging over 440 yards thru the air, with its dizzying array of pass patterns and movement. Keenum is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award and has terrific receivers to throw to. The Cougars are consistent offensively, scoring in 45 of 48 quarters this season, which is the highest average in college football at 93.7 percent. Houston is only 10-22 ATS in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

East Carolina pulls the upset as 2.5-point dogs if Pinkney throws accurately and RB Dominique Lindsay runs wild. Both are possibilities as Houston allowed 445 yards per game (those same teams averaged 370 YPG) and was 113th in run defense. The best way to beat Houston is a cliché, but it’s true, keep the offense on the sidelines. The Pirates can steal a win since they are 13-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

ECU is lucky to be here. Southern Miss fumbled and lost the ball at the one going in for touchdown and had blocked extra point returned for two points. Houston has to block a very good defensive line to give Keenum time to throw. This offense is unstoppable if pass patterns are given time to develop (ask losers). On defense, the Cougars will allow a ton of yards, but need to make a few stops or force turnovers. Houston historically has a vast collection of bad angles; nonetheless they are 8-3 ATS THIS season.

Here are numbers to chew on about this C-USA battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points. The road team has won four of last five meetings and covered the spread each time. Additionally, in head to head matchups, Houston won by 21 points and East Carolina by 14.2.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

College Football Watch and Win Action

It’s crunch in college football. Conference titles are up for grabs as calendar rolls into the first weekend of November. Upsets are not only likely, they are expected. Does LSU have the muscle to knock off Alabama? Will Ohio State win at Penn State to set up bigger Big Ten battle with Iowa next? If Stanford is going to upset Oregon, they couldn’t ask for better setup. Connecticut and Nebraska have had tumultuous seasons for different reasons; do they have one big game left in them? Can Tulsa rise from three-game losing streak and mess with Houston’s dreams? Answers forthcoming. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

LSU (+7.5, 40) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Sage SEC watchers knew, all the preseason talk of Ole Miss being an upstart in the West Division was bunk, the winner was going to come down to who wins this matchup. For a team that squeaked by Mississippi State (30-26) and Georgia 20-13) on the road and did nothing offensively against top-ranked Florida in falling 13-3, the Tigers (7-1, 4-3 ATS) are receiving a lot of love. There are a number of reasons as to why. If LSU wins out, they will be 11-1 and have rematch with Gators in SEC title tilt. Talent is not an issue for Les Miles club, desire to execute is the conundrum. Besides, it’s more fun to overlook Alabama and Mississippi games are on the road. The Bayou Tigers are 2-6-2 ATS since 2004 on the road after two or more home games.

With a week off, Alabama (5-3 ATS) is expected to be refreshed and continue journey towards showdown with Florida. That means quarterback Greg McElroy has to play like he did in the first five games, not the last three. The Crimson Tide is on unfortunate roll of 11 field goals and one offensive touchdown in the last three SEC contests. Thanks to Mt. Cody (Terrence Cody) single-handedly moving Tennessee linemen backwards twice, Bama is 8-0 for a second straight year. All the blame shouldn’t fall on McElroy, as the offensive line could makes everything easier if sophomore RB Mark Ingram had a few more lanes to run thru. Alabama is 9-1 ATS off two home non-covers where the team won as a favorite.

Have mentioned before the SEC is stuffed with quirky rivalries and this is another that is a head scratcher. The visiting team is 10-1-2 against the spread in the series. Given the preceding number, it would figure close contests right, not a chance with average victory margin of 14 points during this span. The Tide is after first back-to-back covers since 1995-96.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10

Ohio State (+5, 39) at Penn State 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

With Iowa having won last week, this Big Ten battle is elimination game for all practical purposes. Ohio State (7-2 SU& ATS) and Penn State (8-1, 5-4 ATS) both have a conference loss, though the Buckeyes does hold one edge since they face the Hawkeyes at home next week. Ohio State’s chances of success will fall on the young shoulders of Terrelle Pryor, who has played his best against the weaker teams (Purdue not included) and strained taking on better competition with stronger defenses. It does help when the defense plays up to capabilities and creates a turnover or three, giving the Buckeyes momentum and short field. Ohio State is 12-1 ATS playing teams with .666 or higher win percentage.

Penn State needs help in order to be Big Ten champions, having lost to Iowa earlier in the season. The first step is knocking off Oho State, who would presumably be angry and want to topple Iowa from the ranks of the unbeaten. Beyond that, the Nittany Lions can only hope the Hawkeyes lose. Since falling to Iowa, Penn State has been like an approaching November storm, gathering momentum and raining down on opponents. Quarterback Daryll Clark is playing at highest level of the season, connecting with big-play threat wide receiver Derek Moye, which has opened up the rest of the field for other pass catchers. Running back Evan Royster has been patient in picking his spots behind an improving offensive line. Though the non-conference schedule lacked any punch, the Nittany Lions defense has only surrendered more than 17 points once. Penn State is 6-0 ATS after consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last two seasons.

After the home team had covered nine in a row in this series, the visiting club has covered two in a row. Here’s an absolutely insane angle, The Jo Pa’s are 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who allow 12 or less points a game. (Iowa was one such team at the time)

3DW Line – Penn State by 6.5

Oregon (-7, 48.5) at Stanford 3:30E FSN

This is the absolute perfect setup for Stanford (5-3 SU&ATS) to pull the upset in Pac-10 play. The Cardinal is off a home game vanquishing of Arizona State and enjoyed a bye week to get healthy in preparation for Oregon, who is in first place all alone in the conference. The Ducks are off exhilarating USC home triumph and have to gather themselves quickly for the most physical team in the Pac-10. The Stanford game plan will be to bludgeon Oregon with RB Toby Gerhart and if successful, this sets up play-action passes for redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck. Gerhart’s pounding style is like body blows and later in a game; tackler’s might be less inclined to take punishment. Luck has shown ability to complete passes all over the field and has deft touch on in-and-out fade routes. Stanford is 12-5 ATS against Top 10 teams.

Oregon’s offense attracts a great deal of attention and deservedly so, but what has made this team special is a Top 20 team defense that forces a large number of negative plays. The Ducks (7-1, 6-2 ATS) have powerful players in the defensive line that have excellent quickness and speed throughout the entire defense to limit big plays. QB Jeremiah Masoli makes the run-based spread option work and his throwing accuracy has been distinguished for most of the season. Freshman LaMichael James has been stabilizing spoke in the wheel to make Oregon’s run offense work, with ability to make tackler’s miss with his cutting ability. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in consecutive contests.

Oregon has captured the Cardinal, winning eight of last nine, with 7-2 ATS mark. The Ducks have plenty to quack about with 6-1 ATS record at Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 12-1 ATS since Oregon’s last visit to Stanford Stadium, including 11 straight covers.

3DW Line – Oregon by 4.5

Houston (-1.5, 67.5) at Tulsa 7:30E CBSC

Though both Houston and Tulsa lost to UTEP, this is momentous matchup in the Conference USA West Division. The best the loser can likely hope for is minor bowl bid, with the winner still in contention to capture division crown. The Cougars (7-1, 6-1 ATS) are the most talented team in the league and they have wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State to prove it. Coach Kevin Sumlin has done exceptional work in keeping Houston focused week to week and QB Case Keenum is precise dart thrower leading the Cougs attack. The defense has picked up lately, forcing more turnovers and more three and outs. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Besides trying to make third consecutive appearance in C-USA championship game, Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS) also has another motive, revenge. Last season, after suffering first loss of year at Arkansas 30-23, a down Golden Hurricane team at 8-1, ran into a hot Houston club, who smoked them 70-30. That left a raw mark on the returning Tulsa players and guaranteed coach Todd Graham has had the number 70 and box score’s strategically displayed for a constant reminder all week. The Tulsa offensive line must have standup effort as quarterback G.J. Kinne has seen more pressure in the pocket against more advanced competition. Keeping focus shouldn’t be an issue, since this is the first of three challenging league conflicts with East Carolina and at Southern Miss on tap. Tulsa has to move the pigskin and is 9-2 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

These teams have only been together in this conference four years, with Houston having 3-1 SU and ATS edge. Dating back further, the underdog is 5-1 ATS. Tough to figure total, with Cougars 8-0 OVER off a home win and Tulsa 7-0-1 UNDER in 2009.

3DW Line – Houston by 5

Connecticut (+17, 51.5) at Cincinnati 8:00 E ABC/GP

Cincinnati’s unexpected odyssey continues when they host a caustic Connecticut club. The Bearcats stand at 8-0 and 6-2 ATS after smashing Syracuse 28-7 and can write their ticket if they keep winning. Before being injured, quarterback Tony Pike was having marvelous campaign, with his name being tossed around in Heisman conversations. His injury ended that talk and he hopes to be ready starting this week for season-ending push. In his place backup Zach Collaros has filled in magnificently. In spite of one defensive starter returning and changing schemes to 3-4 defense, the athletes that were in waiting have been tremendous, with Cincy among the leaders in the country for tackles for loss. Color these Cats successful with 14-4 ATS Big East record under coach Brian Kelly.

Ask any Big East coach, their least favorite opponent is Connecticut (4-4). The Huskies may lack in the talent department compared to other teams, but they will earn the highest marks in preparation under coach Randy Edsall and almost never relent. This year’s team has made the one or two critical mistakes in suffering four losses (7-1 ATS). The offense is playing more consistent and UConn has more playmakers at the skill positions than ever before. One staple missing is the typical Huskies defense, which has surrendered over 26 points per game in league action. All season against better competition, Connecticut has struggled on third down defense. These Huskies are 5-12 as conference underdogs.

Cincinnati was clobbered at Connecticut 40-16 as three-point favorites last season and would relish the opportunity for payback. The home team is 3-1 SU and ATS, with the underdog having covered three of four since the Bearcats joined the Big East. Cincy is 7-0 ATS off two straight wins by 17 or more points since 2007.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11

Oklahoma (-4.5, 42.5) at Nebraska 8:00E ABC/GP

Remember when this contest used to be one of the premier games each and every year? Since the formulation of the Big 12 in 1996, these former intense competitors now meet every three years, playing home and away. Last season, Oklahoma (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS) blasted Nebraska 62-28 as 21-point home favorites. The Cornhuskers are the host this time around and are thankful for the opportunity the Sooners provided, knocking off Kansas State last week 42-30. The last two games in Lincoln have been disastrous for Nebraska (5-3 SU&ATS), tripping up against Texas Tech 31-10 and committing a school-record eight turnovers in 9-7 loss to Iowa State, including four inside the Cyclones five-yard line. Quarterback Zac Lee has not played well versus stiffer completion and lost his job to Cody Green. The freshman will have to go against dauntless Oklahoma defense. The Huskers 6-1 ATS as conference home underdogs.

Oklahoma has no major bowl bid in its future, but that won’t stop a Bob Stoops team from playing hard and giving its all. With the team officially under the direction of signal caller Landry Jones, it’s about moving the chains and finding a rhythm and creating snowball effect. Jones hits a couple of passes and a running back rips off 12-yard run, suddenly the Sooners are in business and rolling. After a few misgivings about the defense’s desire to dominate, they have answered every question since loss to Miami. Oklahoma might not win the Big 12 South; nonetheless they will try to make sure Texas knows they better not screw up. The Sooners are 16-1 and 12-5 ATS vs. the Big 12 North the last five years.

In the last six meetings, the Sooners are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS. The home team is 9-5 ATS dating back 20 years.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 11

CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Five Bowls Games to Send 2008 out with a Bang

The last day of 2008 offers up five bowls encounters, staggered by times, as an appetizer before New Year’s Eve celebration. It will feature running teams like the Air Force and Georgia Tech, along with teams that love to throw the ball like Houston and Kansas. Other universities will be attempting to end losing streaks like Minnesota and LSU, while a squad like Pittsburgh wants to keep that winning feeling prevailing into next season. On this the 366th day of the leap year, we even get a team that last appeared in a bowl game in 1982 (Vanderbilt), when one of the most popular groups of that year was Culture Club, fronted by Boy George.

Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force vs Houston

This bowl contest is a marvelous matchup in contrast in styles. Air Force uses the option ground game to rack up 268.9 yards per game (5th in the nation) and Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) prefers spread attack with the pass in totaling 413.5 yards per game (2nd in the country). This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Falcons, being one of the youngest teams in the country. They exceeded expectations with 8-4 and 7-4 ATS record and are 13-4 ATS in road games with two or more weeks off. Houston’s defense cost them C-USA title shot in 56-42 loss to Rice and they are only 4-13 ATS after allowing 50 or more points. Air Force may be just 8-9-1 in bowls; nevertheless a 10-5 ATS record makes them attractive potential play. Houston is 6-6 ATS in a dozen tries in the postseason.

Why to Watch and Wager

The Mountain West Conference was believed to be stronger than presumed this season and the Air Force could essentially cement that belief with a victory, assuring the league of a winning postseason record with unbeaten Utah still to come. Military schools are normally very good bowl wagers, since they play with the same intensity all the time and are accomplished in running the ball and eating up time, making bowl foes nervous. The Flyboys are 8-1 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in three straight games. Most people didn’t realize these teams met on Sept.13 when the game was moved to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike. Houston was obviously out of sorts having to give up home game and players worried about their family and friends, losing 31-28 as four point favorites. Some might question the Cougars motivation, but after losing chance to play in C-USA championship, losing three straight bowl games and in revenge spot, there is plenty to prove for Houston.

Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -4, 66

Sun Bowl -Oregon State vs Pittsburgh

The Sun Bowl was able to secure two Top 25 teams and has one of the better non-BCS matchups. If freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is healthy for Oregon State (8-4 SU & ATS), this will set up a hookup between two of the nation's most exciting running backs. Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy is sensational runner and totaled 21 touchdowns in 2008. Both squads overcame slow starts to finish strong. The Panthers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) closed 4-1 straight up and ATS, but were sloppy with the ball and are 3-16 ATS after consecutive games committing three or more turnovers. The Beavers were a busy 8-2 ATS after losing first two, and are 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of last three games. Oregon State is on 4-0 and 3-1 ATS in recent bowls; Pitt plays in the postseason for first time since 2002.

Why to Watch and Wager

Among the bowls before 2009, this has the possibility of being a real head-knocker. Both teams prefer to run the ball and each has an above average passing game. Pittsburgh will have health edge with Jacquizz Rodgers still a little uncertain, but his bother James is definitely out with broken collarbone which he suffered in last game. Though Pittsburgh faired well, they are still coached by Dave Wannstedt, meaning anything is possible, good or bad. Off their 34-10 pasting of Connecticut, the Panthers are 4-11 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points. Oregon State slid from trip to Pasadena to El Paso, but chances are still realized they lost four games. Coach Mike Riley has normally been sound in bowl preparation, with the Beavers 6-2 ATS in last eight off a loss. Sun Bowl fact- The underdog is 16-4 ATS the last two decades.

Bookmaker.com Line – Oregon State -2, 51.5

Music City Bowl - Boston College vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt waited 26 years to play in first bowl game and they don’t even get to leave Nashville, playing in Music City Bowl. The Commodores (6-6, 7-5 ATS) come in among the coldest bowl teams, losing six of last seven encounters. The offense caused this to happen, finishing 117th in total yards. Vandy is 22-7 ATS away from home after playing their last game on the road. Boston College (9-4, 7-5 ATS) suffered a second straight ACC title game defeat and their motivation will come into question. With two defensive teams, this conflict could go Under. Boston College is 22-9 UNDER on the road after a spread loss and Vanderbilt is 17-6 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons. The Eagles are riding eight bowl game winning streak and had reeled off nine bowl covers in a row before losing last two.

Why to Watch and Wager

Let’s start with the fact if your dad or grandfather was a sports bettor and made you watch the bowls when you were around 10 years old, you would be 36 now being able to witness Vanderbilt in a bowl game again. The Commodores haven’t moved the ball against hardly anyone and with the behemoths Boston College has like B.J. Raji, probably aren’t going to be moved by Vandy’s less than dandy O-Line. At least the ‘Dores are 7-2 ATS as underdogs. The Eagles would most likely have played in a better bowl, but B.C. fans are well known for watching bowl games on television, not in the stands. If Boston College could not cover last year against Michigan State in Champs Bowl, they could have equally as difficult a time against Vanderbilt, who has solid defense. The Music City Bowl is notorious for dogs covering with 8-2 ATS mark, with faves losing outright seven times.

Bookmaker.com Line – Boston College -3.5, 40.5

Insight Bowl - Minnesota vs Kansas

Though Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) finished with four straight losses, this bowl experience should be cherished after 1-11 2007 campaign. The Golden Gophers have real deficiencies in the offensive line and are 3-12 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games. Minnesota was 81st in points scored and figures to have to do better against potent Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) offense. Possibly the defense can get after talented Kansas QB Todd Reesing, who was sacked frequently (92nd overall) in 2008.

The Jayhawks schedule was tougher and the talent not quite as good as last year’s Orange Bowl outfit, however the upset of rival Missouri had to be satisfying. Kansas is 17-6 ATS in all lined games over the last two years and 12-3 ATS as chalk. This is the Jayhawks fourth bowl experience in six years and first ever in back-to-back seasons.

Why to Watch and Wager

Which Minnesota team shows up, the won that beat Purdue and Illinois on the road or the one that gained 134 total yards at home against Iowa in season finale 55-0 massacre? On the heels of 1-11 season, seven wins and bowl should look pretty good; however a fifth consecutive loss wipes away that momentum. The Golden Gophers come in 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 40 or more points. You saw how excited Missouri played in Alamo Bowl; will Kansas have the same feeling after Orange Bowl bout from a season ago? The Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall and should be good as long as they don’t turn the ball over excessively. Nevertheless, teams like Minnesota having lost three straight games and catching points cover the spread over 70 percent of the time.

Sportsbook.com Line – Kansas -9, 59

Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU vs Georgia Tech

Nobody would have expected the final records of these two clubs, heading into this bowl matchup when the 2008 began. The thought of LSU allowing 30 or more points in half their games in ludicrous, yet it occurred. The Tigers (7-5, 2-9 ATS) were the first consensus national champion since Ohio State in 1943 to follow their national championship title with a losing conference record and are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The wisdom in hiring Paul Johnson to run option offense with the speed of ACC players was questioned, yet Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) led the league in total offense. The Yellow Jackets were 8-2 ATS this season and are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less. LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS in last five bowls, with serious questions about their desire after playing in so many big contests.

Why to Watch and Wager

If Georgia Tech can run for almost 1,500 yards in last four games against bowl teams Florida State, North Carolina, Miami-Fl and Georgia, why should LSU be any different? Toss in this angle, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 rushing yards per carry over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets will be playing before predominantly home crowd in there own city, though LSU will have plenty of support. What could fire up the Tigers are turnovers. Georgia Tech gave the ball up 24 times and had nearly that many they recovered themselves. If they play dropsies again, LSU still athletes that can be difference makers and cash them in. The Bengal Tigers are 10-1 ATS away from home after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

Sportsbook.com Line – Georgia Tech -4, 53