Wagers to consider for NFL Draft

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.

If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)

We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over Two -650
Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380
Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300
Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160
Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250
Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140
Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240
Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145
Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500
Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120
Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290
Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135
Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170
Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130
No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

The Sunday Setup

Closed with a 2-1-1 day and have a system on a sorry NFL underdog that is 28-6 ATS. Speaking of pooches, have a great angles on another dog at 84.6 percent. The Free Play is an AFC divisional matchup. Good Luck

What I know today – Being a sports bettor is much easier than betting horses. (Lots of longshots at Turf Paradise yesterday and the #5 cashed the first eight races)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On teams like Washington after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous contest, in conference games. Since 2004, this system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Houston Texans are 11-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit seven of last nine plays in the NFL and has Pittsburgh as his play.

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Week 16 NFL Previews

On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver’s in a tough spot at Philly and can’t afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.

Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

For the Bengals, it’s time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second’s loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry’s funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis’ team won’t get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.

Keys to the Game-

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don’t give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel’s completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn’t lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.

With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -13.5, 39.5

Carolina at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Fox’s backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.

Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he’s fearless in trying to thread the needle; he’ll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.

3DW Line – Giants by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -8, 42.5

Jacksonville at New England 1:00E CBS

New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.

Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.

Keys to the Game –

Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43

Denver at Philadelphia 4:15E CBS

After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.

Keys to the Game-

Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.

The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Week 15 in the NFL

It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX

In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.

The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41

Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS

Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.

Keys to the Game-

Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.

Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43

Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX

Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.

Keys to the Game-

San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.

Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39

Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS

Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.

Keys to the Game –

It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.

Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.

3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX

Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.

Keys to the Game-

Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.

Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?

3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror

The old story about defenses winning championships has held up to the test of time. On weekly basis this can also be the case, when defensive failures lead to losses. Two teams Sunday that have set high standards this decade were victims to such occurrences.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four in a row and are not getting much done defensively. The numbers still show the Steelers are among the best in football, but against the Oakland Raiders Sunday, they looked more like the Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers held THREE fourth quarter leads against the Raiders and couldn’t hold any of them. The new sensational pitch and catch tandem of Bruce Gradkowski and Louis Murphy was unstoppable. When you consider Pittsburgh was a 15-point favorite and Oakland had three total touchdowns in the last quarter in 11 previous games this season, it’s shocking how far the Steelers have fallen since destroying Denver on Nov. 9.

For all the Bill Belichick apologists that felt he made the right move in going for first down at Indianapolis, subsequent losses to New Orleans and Miami have suddenly made the AFC East race more compelling with a month to go. The New England defense isn’t holding up, so maybe Belichick was right and followed his beliefs. This past weekend, Chad Henne went toe to toe with Tom Brady and his team emerged victorious. The other former Michigan quarterback threw for 335 yards against Patriots secondary.

With inferior talent on the last line of defense, New England has been lit up officially for 316, 367 and 328 yards passing in three of the four weeks. The trade of DE Richard Seymour is looking worse all the time, as the Pats have no pass rush. About the only good news is the remaining schedule includes Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville and @Houston. They should be favored in each and have excellent chance to be paper champs at 11-5, but certainly not feared.

The Dallas Cowboys December woes have been well documented, but what kind of a game plan was that on Sunday in the Meadowlands? Tony Romo was asked to throw 55 times against the Giants. If the Cowboys were trailing 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and were not having much luck catching up, that figure would at least have some credibility. However that wasn’t the case, at all. Dallas trailed by just seven points midway thru the fourth quarter, which was their largest deficit to that point in the game. Having one of the best running games in the NFL, they ran a ridiculous 23 times and played like they were the underdog instead of the favorite. The Dallas coaches get a D- for first Cowboys effort in December with San Diego up next.

If you have ever had your hand slammed by a door, that was similar to the pain Cincinnati backers felt when Detroit back-doored the 13-point favored Bengals with 96 seconds to play.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans looked like a good bet at Indianapolis, catching seven points. Late Tuesday or Wednesday day depending on the sportsbook, the Titans went to +6.5. By Friday, most of the public money was on Tennessee and according to Las Vegas sources, a good chunk of sharp action was also backing Jeff Fisher’s club. A quick perusal of some forums over the weekend that have handicappers picks listed, showed the Titans as a 25-1 choice, easily the highest I’d seen all season, this going against an unbeaten team playing at home. The rest is history as the Colts covered rather easily.

There are points in a game where it makes sense to go for touchdowns as opposed to field goals and unquestionably having the advantage of looking back offers far greater clarity than living in the moment. Twice coach Fisher went for first down and or touchdowns and failed trying to lower a 24-10 deficit. Looking back, if he would have kicked very makeable field goals from short distances, Tennessee would have trailed just 24-16, still having time to make up the eight points.

Pop the Falcons out of the microwave, they are done.

It was a wild Sunday for bettors, as 10 underdogs covered the spread, which included six of those pooches winning outright. Friends on the Strip tell me it was easily the most profitable NFL weekend of the year, which was made all that much sweeter by Arizona’s easy upset victory over Minnesota.

New England loss wiped out a vast number of parlays and New Orleans decision to kick a field goal in overtime after taking it all the way down to one yard line destroyed six-point parlay cards. As a Las Vegas source told me, “The bean counters will be sending out rare positive emails to their least favorite aspect of the casino.”

Steelers at Broncos MNF Preview

AFC powers Pittsburgh and Denver collide in what figures to be one of the better Monday night games in what has been an entertaining season. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are 5-2 after their bye week, off a tremendous high after getting past previously undefeated Minnesota. Ben Roethlisberger may be putting up some crazy passing stats in 2009, but it was heroic defensive efforts by LaMarr Woodley and Keyaron Fox that did the Vikings in.

The current four-game win streak has witnessed the Steelers (2-5 ATS) get their vaunted running game back on track (126.2 vs. 81 YPG the first three games), although no other back has scored besides Rashard Mendenhall. While head coach Mike Tomlin has received the usual contributions from Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, tight end Heath Miller has gotten off to one of the best years of his five-year career, snatching 40 balls for 353 yards and four touchdowns. They will be looking to extend a run of 29-11 ATS when playing against teams with a 75 percent or higher winning percentage.

Defensively, the extra week off can only help the recently-healed Troy Polamalu, who made six tackles and had two passes defended in last contest, after recording only two stops the previous week versus Cleveland. There has also been no Super Bowl hangover from linebacker James Harrison, who is second on the team in tackles (41) and tops in sacks with eight. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is 1-2 and 0-3 ATS on the road and has now dropped five straight games against the number away from home.

The stellar play of Kyle Orton has made the breakup of Jay Cutler and Denver look like one of those month-long high school flings and not some heavily invested marriage. And while the permanently scowled Cutler deals with throwing to subpar Bears receivers, Orton has his team sitting pretty atop the AFC West with room to spare.

Now, all the preseason predictions of a 5-11 season have faded into the thin Rocky air, as the Broncos (6-1 ATS) have the inside track to locking down a division crown and possibly a first-round bye in the postseason. That’s because Orton has kept it simple in a 6-1 start, and his nine touchdowns and one interception reflect it. Denver is 6-1 ATS against AFC teams playing with rest.

Denver’s winning ways have also kept receiver Brandon Marshall quiet and happy after preseason antics to try to orchestrate trip out of town. Instead, fans have witnessed some game-altering performances in home underdog wins over Dallas and New England, with huge touchdown catches. The Broncos are perfect 3-0 SU & ATS at home, having outscored opponents by a 21.3-11.0 margin.

One would also be remiss not to mention the NFL’s top total defense and the exploits of linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who has already posted 10 sacks.

DiamondSportsbook.com established Denver as three-point home underdogs and the number has stuck all week. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS as a home team catching and with the total at 40, are 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game. The Steelers are 6-19 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and 13-5 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. In this head-to-head series, dogs have covered four straight and six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER.

The Steelers cover if Roethlisberger stays patient against very strong and fundamentally sound Denver D. The Broncos secondary can lock up receivers in man coverage, placing greater emphasis on using TE Miller. The normally reliable Denver offensive line had all kinds of problems with Baltimore blitzes last week, which should give Pittsburgh confidence they can get to Orton. Pitt is -3 in turnover margin, improve that number on Monday and victory ensues.

The Broncos cover if Orton does a better job in recognizing the blitz. Though last week he didn’t make a lot of obvious mistakes, the check downs were too often in the three-to-five yard range. Coach Josh McDaniels and Orton have to be able to hit receivers moving forward for additional gains. When McDaniels was at New England, they would spread the Steelers defense throwing deep to expand zone and come underneath on crossing routes, with additional room created. Pass catchers Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler are capable of creating such an attack. Expect Denver to play games to free up Dumervil, to use his explosive quickness against Big Ben, who will hold the ball.

System Play – Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3, having won four out of their last five games, taking the field in November. (36-12 ATS, L12Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Week 7 NFL Game Matchups

Their might only be 13 games on the schedule for this week, however, Sunday afternoon five exceptional matchups really standout. This week AFC-NFC conflicts dominate the schedule and four in particular are worth noting. The NFC leads 13-10 SU and Minnesota will put unbeaten record on the line at Pittsburgh. Two upstarts, San Francisco and Houston will try to keep pushing playoff aspirations. Chicago and Cincinnati meet in the Queen City and one team will have consecutive losses at the end of the day. New Orleans is in potential flat spot on the road against rested home underdog Miami and Dallas also returns from a bye week and to face a dangerous Atlanta squad.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 1:00E FOX

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) continues its most difficult stretch of the 2009 season with a trip to what could be the NFL’s toughest environment, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The defending champion Steelers (1-5 ATS) are starting to find their groove, having won three straight games to move to 4-2, with 27-14 win over Cleveland. They’ll head into their bye week next, important since underdogs and road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven tries vs. NFC foes and just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS hosting the Vikings. Still, with a 28-11 ATS record vs. teams with winning percentage of 75 or higher, Pittsburgh has to like its chances. Minnesota will be out for more late game magic vs. the Steelers and is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Keys to the Game-

At 40-years old, Brett Favre has the third highest quarterback rating at this juncture of the season, as the offensive line has done superior work in keeping his jersey clean. This allows Favre to step into his throws and getting attacking defenses. Last week was perfect example as they built 14-0 lead on Baltimore before they knew what hit them. Minnesota has performed poorly in two of last three games in the fourth quarter, being torched on the ground and thru the air. That won’t work against Ben Roethlisberger and the Vikes are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive regular season games and keeping Adrian Peterson in tow is tantamount. Favre has hit a number of plays to WR Sidney Rice the last few weeks, those have to be contained. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards and must keep Jered Allen away from Big Ben and keep the pressure on 24th ranked pass defense.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -6, 46.5

San Francisco at Houston 1:00E FOX

After being off last week, San Francisco coach Mike Singletary faces a challenge of getting his 49ers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) teams to play well, as they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-bye week games prior to his arrival. Another obstacle figures to be the fact that this will be the 49ers first ever trip to Reliant Stadium. They are still stinging from the 45-10 loss to Atlanta, their first ATS setback of 2009. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road under Singletary. Houston (3-3 SU&ATS) has been tough to read this season, alternating wins and losses. This week would be a loss according to that pattern. The Texans boast a 16-11 ATS home record under Gary Kubiak, but just 3-3 ATS hosting NFC foes. In addition to San Francisco’s post-bye team struggles, the OVER has converted in those last 10 games.

Keys to the Game-

With a week off, it’s time for the Niners to be more creative offensively. Lacking a deep threat in the passing game, teams have increasingly crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Michael Crabtree might not all the offense; however he knows how to go deep and fight for the pigskin. San Francisco has the worst third down conversion rate in the league, which means more three and four yard gains on first down are imperative. The 49ers defense found out what a hot quarterback can do against Atlanta and Matt Schaub shifts the ball around to lots of receivers. They have to tighten coverage or they will fall to 5-13 ATS on the road against foe off a SU underdog triumph.

The Houston running game has been ineffectual (30th), nevertheless getting the ball to RB Steve Slaton on screens and wheel-routes in the correct method to exploit slower linebackers. The offensive line will have to allow Schaub time to throw and he has been on target with clean throwing lanes. The defensive line should use this opportunity to get sack-groove back as QB Shaun Hill lacks pocket presence and has been tackled for loss repeatedly. The Texans have covered nine of last 13 tilts.

3DW Line – Houston by 2
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -3, 44

Chicago at Cincinnati 4:15E FOX

Chicago begins a two-game stint against AFC North foes when it travels to Cincinnati. The Bears (3-2, SU&ATS) haven’t been to the Queen City since recording a 24-0 win back in 2001. Overall, the road team has won three of the last four games, both SU & ATS, between these non-conference foes. The Bears are just 10-12 ATS vs. AFC teams under Lovie Smith, including 5-5 ATS on the road. Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS) shares the same won-lost record as Pittsburgh for the AFC Central lead and hopes to head into its bye week on a good note. The Bengals off the home loss to Houston in which they yielded 472 yards, are looking for a sixth straight ATS win vs. the NFC, although they are just 2-4-1 ATS as hosts in that role since 2005. Road teams are 6-2 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001.

Keys to the Game-

Chicago should know what to do with former teammate Cedric Benson, as he is one-cut-and-go runner. The Bears defense tackles bottled up Michael Turner last week (30-yards) and need to shoot the gaps to contain Benson. Cincinnati loves to blitz and might need to even more without DE Antwan Odom gone for the season. Though the Bears receiving core is feeble, so is the Bengals 28th rated pass defense. Give Jay Cutler time and Chicago has the upset and Bears move to 10-4 ATS following a spread loss.

When Cincinnati almost lost to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they were arrogant in kicking the ball to Joshua Cribbs, giving the Browns excellent field position time and again. Coach Marvin Lewis has to be smarter against the Bears return personnel or a loss could entail. Be patient with Benson on the ground. He has shown proclivity for breaking big runs, don’t be discouraged by a series of minimal gains. The Bengals have bounced back after sorry defensive performances and are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards. Create exotic blitz packages to annoy Cutler, who have shown he’s not above making poor throwing decisions.

3DWLine – Chicago by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -1, 42.5

New Orleans at Miami 4:15E FOX

After losing its first three games, Miami won its last two before its bye week to climb back into the AFC East race. The next three weeks will determine whether the Dolphins (2-3 ATS) are capable of staying in the hunt. After this game against the undefeated Saints (5-0 SU&ATS), they face trips to New York and New England, both critical divisional contests. Miami comes in on a 4-8 ATS slide as a home underdog. New Orleans is off the statement win over the Giants and also faces a pair of divisional opponents up next, only at home, starting with Atlanta. The Saints are 6-0 ATS the last two years vs. the AFC, and 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East foes dating back to 1992. They are also 8-1 ATS as road chalk under coach Sean Payton. Miami last hosted the Saints in 1998, and is 2-0 SU & ATS in those meetings.

Keys to the Game –

The New England Patriots of a couple of seasons ago might have been a tremendous story ravaging the NFL in the first part of the season; however this New Orleans offense is no less lethal. Coach Payton’s attacking game plans immediately have opponents on tilt, with Drew Brees the executioner. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons in no small part because they win the turnover battle. They are +9 in 2009. New Orleans must tame the “wildcat”. Scoring quickly and building lead places more pressure on slower-paced Miami to score more frequently.

The best way to cool Brees is have him on the sidelines. Miami has the NFL’s best running game and averages over 36 carries a game. Use the same tactics that almost ended Indianapolis unbeaten season. With an extra week to work out deficiencies, the Dolphins have to have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor pestering Brees or he will eat up safeties, the weak link of Fins defense. Miami is 4-14 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog and they better spot TE Jeremy Shockey from the Saints first offensive snap or another loss is forthcoming.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6.5, 48

Atlanta at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas may have headed into its bye week with the confidence of a 3-2 team, but the truth is the Cowboys (2-3 ATS) are closer to being 1-4 than they are to being elite outfit. A late interception return versus Carolina and OT win at Kansas City has made the difference. Offensively they have been stellar, gaining an incredible 7.0 yards per play, best in the NFL. However, defensively, they are yielding 5.8 yards per play, and ranked 22nd in total defense. They start a two-game homestand, and they’ll take on another pretty good team offensively, Atlanta, who comes in at 4-1 after beating Chicago. The Falcons (4-1 ATS) begin a stretch of four road games in their next five. They are on a run of 21-9 ATS in October road games. Speaking of visitors, road teams are 6-0 SU & ATS in Dallas’ last six post-bye week contests.

Keys to the Game-

Frequently, teams off a bye are somewhat lethargic playing at home and off a victory. This sets up perfect opportunity to spring no-huddle offense on Dallas, say the second series of the game. Matt Ryan showed he can handle this attack comfortably and the Cowboys are 26th against the pass. Atlanta has improved the last two weeks stopping the run and applying quarterback pressure, but has blown contain and let opposing QB’s scramble for first downs. Keep Romo in the pocket. Once again the secondary is a concern for Falcons, which means pass rush has to work. The Birds are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since last year.

The offensive line has to take it Atlanta, building on No.3 rush attack. This keeps Romo from making boneheaded plays. Great efficiency is also needed in the red zone as seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions is not good enough. Ryan, the former Boston College quarterback, has not been sacked since the third quarter of the first game against Miami. After lumbering start, Cowboys have 10 sacks in last three contests. Get to Ryan and chances of 6-0 ATS record off a bye improve substantially.

3DWLine – Atlanta by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -4.5, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Unique OutPlay Factor Ratings

It's about this time each football season that I love to dig into the StatFox database for both college & pro football and tabulate the Outplay Factor Ratings for each team. By now, all the clubs have at least four games in the books, meaning we have a decent idea as to how they stack up for 2009. However, as is always the case, there are teams that are overrated and teams that are underrated. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can help to pinpoint such cases, as they ignore wins & losses, and rather quantify how well a team is either outplaying or being outplayed by their opponents. The big thing that the OF does for us is take into account schedule strength, as often teams are given too much credit for whipping up on bad opponents while not enough for playing a very competitive game but coming up short to an elite club.

With that in mind, here are the early season StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for all the clubs as they headed into last weekend's games. I have sorted the teams by division or conference so you can easily compare the numbers, as the teams match up head-to-head most often. The (Off) column is the team's Offensive Outplay Factor Rating, with the higher numbers better. The (Def) column is Defensive Outplay Factor Rating, and there the lower the better. The (COF) is the Composite Outplay Factor Rating, and you can use each team's rating to generate a theoretical pointspread by comparing it to another club and then assigning home field advantage. The (RK) column indicates where that team ranks in the NFL or nationally in college. These numbers take into account ONLY 2009 game results, rather than a specific number of recent games.

Some of the things you'll want to keep an eye on as you analyze these numbers are first, any teams that may rank at or near the top of their respective division/conference in Outplay Factor Rating but not in the actual won-lost standings. These are the types of teams that may be getting undervalued by oddsmakers. Vice-versa for those teams at or near the bottom in OF, but not so in the standings. These are clubs that may be overachieving or getting the benefit of good fortune and hence ready to take a dive. The other factor that is important to consider is to find teams that are generating good offensive & defensive balance. If a team is drastically outplaying its opponents on one side of the ball and not the other, it may be a sign of a potential weak spot for that club. In other words, if a team such as San Diego has a very high offensive OF rating (positive) but also a very high positive on its defensive rating, that means it's offense is carrying the load entirely. A couple of bad or even average games by that unit and that team might be in some trouble. Same goes for a team with two very low negative numbers. That is a team that is outperforming its opponents defensively, but not getting the same performance out of its offense.

You can find out more about the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating by search the term on your favorite search engine or in the Fox Den Forum on StatFox.com.

NFL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

AFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ENGLAND: +7.8 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.2) #5 of 32

NY JETS: +6.8 (Off: +-3.1, Def: +-9.9) #8 of 32

MIAMI: +4.2 (Off: +0.6, Def: +-3.6) #14 of 32

BUFFALO: +-8.8 (Off: +-5.9, Def: +2.9) #28 of 32

The AFC East has the highest combined OF of any division in the NFL thus far. Does that make it the toughest? Possibly. Even Miami had a positive rating after its first four games despite going just 1-3, meaning the Dolphins could be an underrated club in coming weeks. Both New York and New England have favorable schedules upcoming in terms of OF's, so expect these teams to continue to stay atop the division.

AFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CINCINNATI: +4.6 (Off: +1.2, Def: +-3.4) #12 of 32

BALTIMORE: +4.3 (Off: +4.9, Def: +0.6) #13 of 32

PITTSBURGH: +0.2 (Off: +-2, Def: +-2.2) #19 of 32

CLEVELAND: +-7.8 (Off: +-6.4, Def: +1.4) #26 of 32

The AFC North OF standings are the same as the won-lost standings, perhaps indicating that Cincinnati being atop the division is not a fluke. However, the Bengals rating of +4.6 is just 12th in the league, meaning this division as a whole in underachieving. Pittsburgh's rating is particularly alarming, since +0.2 is barely outplaying opponents, and the Steelers' final OF of '08 was +9.2. Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as some other bottom feeder teams.

AFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

INDIANAPOLIS: +11 (Off: +5.1, Def: +-5.9) #2 of 32

JACKSONVILLE: +-4.6 (Off: +-1.5, Def: +3.1) #22 of 32

HOUSTON: +-7 (Off: +-0.1, Def: +6.9) #25 of 32

TENNESSEE: +-8.3 (Off: +-2.7, Def: +5.6) #27 of 32

The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings for the AFC South are a one-horse race. Oh wait, so are the actual won-lost standings. Indy has been as good as it has appeared, outplaying teams by 11.0 PPG, which is 1.8 PPG better than the #1 ranked team of '08. The other three clubs are well below the zero mark, meaning that the Colts should be favored by at least 15-points in divisional play before applying any home field points.

AFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

DENVER: +7.2 (Off: +-1.4, Def: +-8.6) #6 of 32

SAN DIEGO: +-1.3 (Off: +4.1, Def: +5.4) #20 of 32

KANSAS CITY: +-6.2 (Off: +-3.3, Def: +2.9) #24 of 32

OAKLAND: +-13.2 (Off: +-10.2, Def: +3) #31 of 32

Like the AFC South, the West also has one team in positive territory in StatFox OF headed into Week 6. Denver has won close games, and the Broncos rating of +7.2 is indicative of that. They may be 5-0, but at +7.2, should not be considered yet as a large favorite. However, according to OF ratings, there's no reason San Diego should be favored on Monday. The Chiefs are better than Oakland, despite the Raiders head-to-head win.

NFC EAST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NY GIANTS: +8.3 (Off: +6.7, Def: +-1.6) #4 of 32

PHILADELPHIA: +5.9 (Off: +7.2, Def: +1.3) #9 of 32

DALLAS: +2.8 (Off: +3.5, Def: +0.7) #16 of 32

WASHINGTON: +-10.7 (Off: +-11.4, Def: +-0.7) #30 of 32

The NFC East is stacking up just as envisioned, with Washington bringing up the rear. However, only numbers such as the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings can quantify just how bad the Redskins have been in their 2-3 start. At -10.7, they are 30th out of 120 teams, and with the meat of their schedule upcoming, things could get ugly for that franchise. The Giants have been good, but not at the level of New Orleans & Indy. Dallas may be the most overrated team in the NFL.

NFC NORTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

CHICAGO: +6.9 (Off: +3.3, Def: +-3.6) #7 of 32

MINNESOTA: +4.9 (Off: +5.5, Def: +0.6) #11 of 32

GREEN BAY: +2.7 (Off: +4.8, Def: +2.1) #17 of 32

DETROIT: +-3.7 (Off: +2.6, Def: +6.3) #21 of 32

According to the StatFox OF Ratings, the NFC North is only slightly worse than the East. In fact the degree at which Detroit betters Washington explains how the Lions won their only game. In fact, Detroit should not be grouped with the truly poor teams at this point and is capable of winning games. Minnesota is easily the worst 5-0 team in football and will be tested the next three weeks. Chicago has been solid on both sides of the ball, while Green Bay needs to improve defensively.

NFC SOUTH: COF (Off, Def), Rank

NEW ORLEANS: +18.3 (Off: +13.2, Def: +-5.1) #1 of 32

ATLANTA: +8.3 (Off: +4.6, Def: +-3.7) #3 of 32

CAROLINA: +-6 (Off: +-4.1, Def: +1.9) #23 of 32

TAMPA BAY: +-10.1 (Off: +-5.4, Def: +4.7) #29 of 32

The NFC South OF ratings are as imblanced as the won-lost standings, and New Orleans is setting the pace for the entire league. The Saints will be tested this week at home vs. the Giants though. Atlanta's rout of San Francisco helped boost its rating about four points, and the Falcons are now ranked as the 3rd best team in the entire NFL. Tampa and Carolina go head-to-head Sunday, and assuming the Bucs have very little home field edge, oddsmakers have the spread pegged right, Carolina -4.

NFC WEST: COF (Off, Def), Rank

SEATTLE: +5.5 (Off: +1.4, Def: +-4.1) #10 of 32

SAN FRANCISCO: +4.1 (Off: +2.1, Def: +-2) #15 of 32

ARIZONA: +1.2 (Off: +0.4, Def: +-0.8) #18 of 32

ST LOUIS: +-17.7 (Off: +-11.9, Def: +5.8) #32 of 32

The NFC West is balanced after five weeks, just as the won-lost standings indicate. Right now, it is Seattle pacing the OF ratings, with a +5.5, putting it ahead of teams like Dallas & Minnesota. The Seahawks two shutouts help lead to a -4.1 defensive OF, 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco & Arizona are ranked lower overall than Seattle but have shown balance on both sides of the ball. St. Louis is plain awful, and according to the OF's, should be at least a 15-point dog in all divisional games.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS (as of Monday, October 12th)

To read all about the college teams, click here.

Article by Steve Makinen of Statfox and The Platinum Sheet.

Load it up for another NFL Sunday

USC flexed their considerable muscles, which send us to losing day. Yesterday was one of the craziest days I’d seen in awhile. The Best System looks in on big Ravens and pats matchup, picking a winner with 82.1 percent side. The Top Trend looks at another important AFC contest with one team 12-1.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Since Joe Paterno has taken over as coach art Penn State, there has been 893 coaching changes in D-1 or FBS football.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3, with a turnover margin of +1 a game or better on the season, after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens are 23-5. 82.1 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Steelers are 12-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken is 8-2 in the NFL and has more courage than I taking Oakland plus the points.

Guaranteed NFL Plays with Paul Buck's Sunday Night Soluntion.

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NFL Week 3 Inside Info

The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are two the teams that need to get season turned in the right direction quickly or preseason aspirations might be unfounded. The San Francisco 49ers has adopted the personality of their coach Mike Singletary and will try and pull another surprise in Minnesota on Sunday. Drew Brees has New Orleans en fuego, but they are expected to having a rugged time in Buffalo. Can Cincinnati end home drought to the Super Bowl champions? That question and many others will be answered as theirs Week 3 of the NFL commences.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Titans and Jets aren’t divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fisher’s team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets’ Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.

Keys to the Game-

Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and they’ve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.

The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an “I told you so manner”. New York’s front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.

3DWLine – N.Y. Jets -7

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Jets -2, 37

San Francisco at Minnesota 1:00E FOX

Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).

Keys to the Game-

The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. It’s true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasn’t gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), they’ll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.

San Francisco’s defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; they’ll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -7, 39.5

Atlanta at New England 1:00E FOX

The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFL’s better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

It’s not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just don’t look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.

Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New England’s defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin he’s wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New England by 1

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -4.5, 46.5

New Orleans at Buffalo 4:05E FOX

New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.

Keys to the Game –

The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that “hits” on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bay’s drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards can’t turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6, 51.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals’, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.

Keys to the Game-

It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasn’t won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.

The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 5.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3.5, 37.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.