Cardinals at Saints Preview

After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to The Big Easy. This first divisional playoff game has all the makings of spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head.

Arizona (11-6, 9-7 ATS) is coming off an amazing offensive game. Led by Kurt Warner completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns, the Cardinals were able to survive against Green Bay. This was the second time the future Hall of Famer had more touchdown then incompletions (in 1999 he was 20 for 23 with five TD passes against San Francisco when playing with St. Louis) in his career.

The Cardinals are the most offbeat team in the NFL that wins division titles. When coach Ken Whistenhunt’s squad has nothing to play for, they resemble many of the Cardinals teams of the past, playing inept football. While most experts and former football players say no team can just “flip the switch” and play at their peak, Arizona has confounded everyone the last two years and done just that in registering 8-1 ATS record when playing against a top-level team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher.

In the past, Arizona was among the most meager of traveling teams, however they are 7-2 and 5-3-1 ATS in last nine road trips, allowing 17 points per contest. Their defense was shredded last week by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, but they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS) after winning their first 13 games of the season, lost their last three and have a similar curiosity factor as Conan O’Brien as people want to see what the Saints will do next. Drew Brees was on his way to MVP season, but trailed off in the second half as opposing teams looked to take away the run and force New Orleans into more obvious passing situations and blitzed Brees more accordingly.

Historically, the Saints haven’t handled adversity well with 8-19 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Coach Sean Payton believes this team is better prepared for this spot, since they are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at the Super Dome the last two seasons and has scored 32.1 points per game.

New Orleans has to be encouraged going against the Cardinals defense, since their receivers are at least as deep and talented as Green Bay’s and Arizona has weaknesses beyond its main three players in the secondary. The Saints big play offense is 15-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

Bookmaker.com installed New Orleans as a touchdown favorite with total of 57 points, the highest such playoff figure dating back to at least 1988. Teams that have lost their last two games against the spread during the regular season are 13-5 ATS this round (this will include the Colts also) and the Saints are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER at home after one or more spread losses.

Arizona is one two teams this weekend that drew the short straw, having to play a rested team on just six days rest and loses even more time playing the latter game last week and having to travel East. Look for the Cardinals to test the Saints soft run defense with Beanie Wells to open up the passing game. Expect Warner to try and hit big play early to help build team confidence. The Cards secondary has to have better idea scheme-wise and take correct angles for tackling purposes. The defensive line can’t let Brees stand in the pocket, otherwise these birds are cooked. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 UNDER after one or more wins this season.

New Orleans has to do what Arizona did last week, start fast and hope defense can hold up. Their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games and this team needs a shot of confidence from the get-go. Coach Payton has to get Arizona defense off-balance like last week and keep them guessing. With Saints expected to be as healthy as they’ve been in a month, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem are real keys against team that is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in the postseason since last year.

Packers at Cardinals Wagering Outlook

The Packers had not faced Arizona at any time in over three seasons, now they will be making a third trip to the desert in just over four months and a second in two weeks. Green Bay assaulted Arizona 33-7 in Week 17, as both teams came into that game with very different mindsets.

The Cardinals played with little ambition and the game plan had about as much flavor as diet dressing. Coach Ken Whisenhunt was down this road a season ago and feels he has the right pulse on his more veteran team and decided to take his lumps and live to fight a bigger battle in the week ahead.

Coach Mike McCarthy has a younger team, playing its best football of the season and chose a more aggressive stance, having his club play with more vibe. Green Bay took what Arizona was willing to give and built up 33-0 lead before calling off the dogs.

In the last wild card game of the weekend, we’ll see what approach was correct.

This will be the only matchup of the wild card team having the better record and the Packers are torrid, having won seven of eight (7-0-1 ATS). Green Bay’s running game offers more than enough to keep any defense honest and the blocking downfield has been spectacular, with Ryan Grant ripping off long touchdown runs despite slightly above average speed. The Pack is 20-7-1 ATS on the road the last several seasons.

Aaron Rodgers is seeing the field well, finding second and third receivers without holding onto the ball, which was his penchant earlier. Finding the long ball with home run hitter Greg Jennings opened up the field and TE Jermichael Finley is proving to be a tough matchup for every opponent.

In the second half of the year, DC Dom Capers 3-4 defense gelled. The players started to play instinctively instead of reacting and the blitzing of linebackers Nick Barnett and Clay Matthews really paid dividends. Charles Woodson proved to be the best all-around cornerback in football and will receive plenty of support for Defensive Player of the Year, for a team that is 8-0 ATS as a visitor when their defense forces two turnovers since 2007.

For Arizona it starts with attitude, can they once again just “turn the switch” and play great football. Over the last two years in the most meaningful games they have been able do so. On defense, they will have to super aggressive, forcing Rodgers to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants and play more press coverage in the secondary, since all four starters have good hands and have played corner at some point in their careers. DT Darnell Dockett has to control the middle of the defense like he is capable of doing so, making Packers one dimensional. The Cards are 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons.

On offense, Kurt Warner has to protect the ball and be accurate. Establish Larry Fitzgerald first in the passing game and find the mismatches against a thinned out Green Bay secondary like Pittsburgh did when they threw for over 500 yards. At some point in the first quarter, get the running game cranked up, to keep the linebackers honest and play their positions, instead of heading up field all the time. The Cards are 13-4 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a contest.

Arizona opened as 2.5-point home favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and has been bet down to two-point underdogs, with total at 47.5. They are 18-6 ATS in home games off a home loss and 18-5 OVER after scoring 15 or less points. The Packers are playing with supreme confidence and are 12-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less and 15-2 OVER with four or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Fingers crossed for terrific Tuesday

We got blitzed but good yesterday with 0-3 record and will to turn that right around today. We have three hoops plays to show, first Slick Rick’s Free Best Bet. The Best System is a rare first half play in the NBA and it makes a lot of sense, with low risk, points wise. In college basketball, a Top Trend of note at 16-2 ATS. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Sometimes even the best information can be incorrect. I had a friend call me (connected with several Cards players) and tell me Arizona can’t wait to take the field against the Niners Monday. They want so badly to beat this team they can taste it. I didn’t make a huge wager, just my typical that matches a 2* play. As it turns out, the Cardinals were too amped to play (three off-sides defensive penalties on first drive) and since they felt so good about what they were about to do, they lost their confidence in a blizzard of mistakes and turnovers. I was OK with losing, since I trusted the info; the team just didn’t come through.

I wish I could accurately describe this, but a few people that know me understand, since I’ve explained. Once I saw Kurt Warner on the sidelines before the game Monday, I knew I was in trouble. He’s got this look, kind of a wide-eyed, pissed out blank look. For whatever reason, I noticed it several years ago since he’s been in Arizona and he always plays his worst games with that look.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Phoenix vs. the first half line, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season against opponent after leading their last three games by 5 or more points at the half. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent since 1996 and since the Suns are currently a two point favorite for the game, they just have to lead at halftime.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Louisiana Tech is 16-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 5-0 in the NBA the last two days and likes Charlotte to nail the Knicks. (I’m leaning towards New York, though no money on my part)

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

Arizona favored to play there best football

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home. Also, we’ll preview the Patriots at the Redskins.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and want this to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. The could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

New England at Washington

Washington entertained the idea of chasing Jay Cutler who wanted out of Denver and gave serious consideration to drafting Mark Sanchez. Neither of those things happened and Redskins fans are starting to wonder if the Washington front office made an error in not following thru. Jason Campbell was believed to a work in progress when he was drafted and it well documented his head has been filled with new offensive schemes annually, dating back to Auburn days. Campbell is no longer a kid quarterback (27 years old) and he is 5 for 20 passing in the preseason, for a whopping 58 yards. This has to be the time he elevates his game. The Redskins are 3.5-point home underdogs, with total of 37.5 and they are 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

If one reads into comments made by coaches, New England could be edged this week. Coach Bill Belichick was unusually critical of his team’s 7-6 loss at home to Cincinnati as a touchdown favorite. Belichick said “We just generally had too many mistakes, too many errors in every phase of the game with every unit pretty much in every area.” It has been a different atmosphere in Patriots training camp, more hitting, longer practices and more double sessions. New England is 17-8 ATS in third game of the preseason, including 5-1 ATS since 2003. Tom Brady and his teammates might be in the mood to set an example in this contest.

Super Bowl XLIII- Who Covers and Why

Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.

Pittsburgh wins and covers because…

They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.

Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight end Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.

If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.

Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.

Arizona wins and covers because…

The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.

The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.

Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.

The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.

Every last thing you need to know about the Super Bowl 43

I had a very clear understanding of who I thought would win and cover the Super Bowl, what total to take and what props to play. After doing research for this article, I’m more confused about what to do next than Megan from “The Bachelor”.

I started by going to Sportsbook.com to get a feel what the wagering public was thinking and 52-55 percent of the quote-unquote “squares” are on Arizona to cover the spread. Based on recent history, this made sense to me taking the points, especially if the line holds at Pittsburgh -7. Over 60 percent of these same people that place bets at this book like the total to Over, this also made sense to me since the logical conclusion would be the Cardinals and Over and the Steelers and Under.

The money line action has steadily grown towards the Cardinals all week, up to 89 percent of all bets placed was on Arizona. From a value standpoint, this has merit and talking to Doug from 3Daily Winners, he believes many of the same lemmings (my term not his) that cashed on the Giants last year have returned believing the same thing could happen again.

I read where last year was supposed to be the big bonanza, with an estimated 100 million bet on the SB 42. It ended up being a little too optimistic for the perfect storm to occur with the perfect Pats and confident dog Giants, settling at 92M plus. Because of these recessionary times and the less than glamorous Cardinals in the game, this year’s number has been downsized to no more than 85 million and probably less.

Another factor of the decrease of the number is the rebirth of the local guy taking bets. Many bookies went out of business or were cut so severely because of the offshore internet sites that opened up. Once the government snuck in the bill about offshore betting being illegal, this opened up a whole new ball game for these fellas.

Most of the smart ones embraced technology and now have websites set up just like the offshore books and run very much the same way. The beauty for them now is instead of fielding phone calls or sending emails what the current lines are, they just have their “customers” login and view the lines themselves. This has also aided them in their ability to do prop bets for the Super Bowl and take in even more money, as long as they can cover the losses. These guys work less and are making more money then they ever did before. It’s sure is good the government ended up helping those in the United States keep the money here instead of letting in go abroad. (Wink)

To get a feel for what handicappers are thinking about the Big Game, I went to The Spread.com where they always have people posting Free and paid picks. Here the views of who will cover are different from the wagering public. At last count over 60 percent of the cappers were on Pittsburgh, including most of the big names in the business. Having once been in the business myself, I was surprised to see touts giving out a favorite, especially with a touchdown line. They were dead even on the total.

Next I went to every major sports website and read every article they had posted. ESPN.com tends to be more serious, while Fox Sports.com blends in more goofy stories, searching too hard it seems to have that “different angle”. The rest off the sites were somewhere in between. For all the stories on Al Gore’s information highway (You didn’t know he invented the internet and found global warming also?), there was very little I already didn’t know.

I was shocked and dumbfounded to see Brenda Warner (Kurt’s wife), remembering her when she had the spiked-hair which made her look, you know, like a switch-hitter. Now she has that blonde hair and looks sort of hot (especially compared to before). Speaking of hot, what about Big Ben’s either current or possibly former girlfriend? Google her up.

My search for newsworthy trends, angles or what I thought was different info yielded the following.

*Kurt Warner could become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.

*No Super Bowl team had ever been beaten by more than 21 points twice during the regular season, Arizona was defeated on four occasions in this manner.

*The team with the most sacks has won 12 of last 13 Super Bowls and is 8-3-2 ATS.

*Losing Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points are astonishing 0-31 and 3-28 ATS.

*Teams in their first Super Bowl against a team with previous experience (of any kind) are 4-12 and 5-11 ATS.

*The outright winner of the Super Bowl is 34-8 ATS.

*Teams off consecutive upsets are 4-2-1 ATS in the Big Game.

*Pittsburgh is attempting to be the first team to ever have six Super Bowl trophies.
*Teams that win the turnover battle are 30-3 and 27-6 ATS.

*For total players consider the referee. Over the last three years, Terry McCauley’s games have averaged 39.3 points per game, the lowest among all NFL referees.

*Kurt Warner has gone seven years between Super Bowl games, Ben Roethlisberger is try to join Tom Brady as the only quarterback with two rings by age 26.

*Arizona allowed 426 points during the regular season; the previous worst for a Super Bowl team was 360.

*Pittsburgh is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS if they out-rushed their opponent this year and Arizona is 9-0 SU & ATS if they did so.

Made calls down to Tampa area and it resembles Steel City South. As many as 30 or more bars have been designated as Pittsburgh bars. The number for Arizona, well that would be about as many as people who saw there stock portfolio grow in 2008, none.

When I spoke to Doug (who lives in Phoenix area) he told me something I found humorous. The day after the Arizona beat Philadelphia, the different news stations in Phoenix were reporting Cardinals fans were actually going to travel to Tampa even if they didn’t have tickets. Obviously the news people there are dolts and what sounds like a few hundred at most fans from the Grand Canyon State will be outnumbered 30-1 by those in black and gold.

After all this research, my head was spinning and I felt like Paris Hilton at physics convention. (That would be stupid) Decided to go back to my original belief that Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule in the league all season, had few letdowns and for my money was the best team in football since Week 7. I just can’t shake the thought of all those horrific Cardinals losses and maybe it’s all in the past, but like their forever cheap owner Bill Bidwell (Oh do I have stories about him and his father) I find it impossible to believe they will play well enough to win.

Put me down for Steelers 31-20 and I hope I’m right.

These were the thoughts of one Red Wydley.

Super Bowl XLIII Props Debate

The “Super Bowl Scuffle” has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday. Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it and this piece has been picked up more each year by different websites and publications. This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday. So sit back and enjoy. Perhaps the guys can help you uncover a golden nugget buried underneath the excessive options and vigorish.

The various props and odds have been taken from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets. All odds are considered (-110) unless noted.

Moderator: Hello everybody, and welcome back to another edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, the fourth edition of the popular props debate between Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone. Steve performs a variety of services for StatFox, writing, editing and Managing Editor for other publications. Doug is the lead writer for StatFox.com and is an experienced sports handicapper. So, without further ado, I welcome in our distinguished contributors. Good day guys, hope you’re both getting ready for the big game!

Steve: Hey everyone, hello Douglas, my man, I trust your local Scottsdale stores are keeping the shelves stocked with Arizona Super Bowl gear (and sunscreen)? Up here in frigid Wisconsin I’m just happy I took the plunge and got myself a new snowthrower. Trust me; it’s been put to good use. Nothing breaks the winter up better than Super Bowl Sunday though. I am pumped and ready to roll…I’m sure you’re suffering from Scarlet Fever, so I hope you can take an unbiased look at this year’s game.

Doug: Steve, it has been hotter than a "cougar convention" at one of the local Scottsdale beverage establishments. While you poor folks in the Midwest and East have suffered with bitterly cold temperatures, we have people here complaining it's too hot already, with temps 75-80 for weeks. Things have really heated up with the Bird Fever. While much of the country suffered the affects of a recession, being in the Arizona Cardinals jersey and t-shirts business takes away any feelings of a bad economy.

Moderator: Wow, yes, it’s easy to forget that Doug resides in Cardinal Country. We trust Doug will put aside any personal feeling he harbors in the pursuit of gambling happiness on Super Bowl Sunday. So let’s get to it, I’ll list the props, you guys simply tell which option you prefer and why. Best of luck to both of you.

GAME POINTSPREAD
PITTSBURGH -7
ARIZONA +7

Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I can see Arizona leading into the second half, before Pittsburgh starts to rattle Kurt Warner and slow down the Cardinals offense. Though I can see Pittsburgh covering, I’ll say Arizona needs two scores, kicks the field goal to trail by six and doesn’t recover onside kick to lose.

Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.

To read the rest of this article, click here.

Breakdown of Super Bowl XLIII Point Spread

This year’s Super Bowl might not have all the snazzy names from a year ago New England and the New York Giants provided, but this matchup have more intriguing stories than Pittsburgh has rivers and just slightly less restaurants and nightclubs Scottsdale has to visit. Start with Arizona having not won a playoff since 1947, twice removed from the south side of Chicago to present location. While Cardinals and players have been spouting nobody believed in them, what was the basis of any history to do so? Speaking of history, Pittsburgh’s NFL history before drafting Mean Joe Greene and Terry Bradshaw in 1969 and 1970 respectively was of similar failure to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was on the ground floor of the NFL’s emergence in 1933 and made the post season once before 1972 (ironically 1947) when their run as on the most decorated AFC champion began.

Other storylines include Bill Cowher stepping down as coach and Arizona’s head man Ken Whisenhunt, a Steelers assistant and Russ Grimm (formerly Pittsburgh assistant, now with the Cardinals) were finalists for the job before the Pittsburgh organization went out an hired a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.

Between now and the start of the game you will have more useless knowledge about players, coaches and teams in the Big Game than a youngster has about each of the Jonas Brothers, nonetheless we’ll try a different approach.

Arizona Running Game vs Pittsburgh Front Seven

After beating a sickly St. Louis squad 34-13 on Nov.2, running the 33 times for 177 yards, Arizona won the NFC West a couple weeks later and lost their way in the process. Over the next seven contests, the Redbirds averaged 16 carries per game. Granted, in several games they fell behind early and were forced to throw the ball to try to score more quickly and abandoned the run. Nevertheless, every game started a 0-0 and even when Arizona trailed 7-0 or even 14-0 in some of those losses, they were all too happy to chuck the run and pass the ball three times for too frequent three and outs. Though the season finale could hardly be described as an awakening, the reinsertion of a fresh and frustrated Edgerrin James yielded a 100+ yard rushing game for the first time in eight tries and set the table for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to rethink playoff strategy. Since their first offensive possession of the postseason, it is obvious “The Edge” is back and the offensive line has improved dramatically, relishing the challenge. Most of the running plays are now one cut and go and though the Arizona linemen are not dominating, there are holes to run thru. One aspect not discussed about the Cards linemen and how they have improved, not one starter has missed a game, which led to chemistry and communication improvements.

The Steelers led the league in total defense and points allowed and were second against the run in surrendering 3.3 yards per carry. The setup is simple, the linemen clog gaps and the linebackers swoop in and make tackles. If Pittsburgh can make Arizona one-dimensional, they can dictate the tempo and come after Kurt Warner with less fear of having to worry about running game. This will be as important an issue as any in the Super Bowl.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Kurt Warner vs Pittsburgh Secondary

It’s not often a quarterback goes seven years between Super Bowl assignments (John Elway went eight), but Kurt Warner has rewarded the coaches faith in him naming him starter in August. Though the Hall of Fame talk seems premature, no doubting the wisdom and toughness Warner has acquired over what has become a long career. Like most veteran signal callers, Warner has seen it all. As I had mentioned several times this season, given time, the Northern Iowa product is still a top five quarterback. He read every Philadelphia blitz correctly and threw the ball with precision into vacated area. Look for Arizona to go to third receiver Steve Breaston more in this game, since the Pitt defenders beyond Ike Taylor are not great individual defenders. Running back Tim Hightower can also be highly effective for Warner, when they push the Steelers secondary deep with their receivers and force Troy Polamalu into coverage, instead of hanging around the line of scrimmage. How Pittsburgh thwarts the Cardinals passing game is with pressure. Television types are talking about how Warner will pick apart Steelers if they blitz too much, of course the very same talking heads said the Philly blitzes would shutdown Cards passing game. Linebacker James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel and LB Lamar Woodley hold the key. Harrison and Keisel are on the back side of Warner and get to him with speed and quickness and knock the ball loose. Woodley is important as he brings in-the-face pressure on Warner and the Steelers defense is the absolute best in having defenders in passing lanes. Expect DC Dick LeBeau to stay in base defense early to see if rushers can get to Warner and turn up the heat as needed.

Spread Differential - None

Pittsburgh Running Game vs Arizona Front Seven

The second most important part of the Super Bowl will be how these two units matchup. After Minnesota and New England combined to rush for 422 yards against Arizona, defensive coordinator Clancy Pendegrast simplified schemes in front, having more gap control. This put players like Darnell Dockett in better positions to make plays at the line of scrimmage and get better penetration on wide plays to his side. The Pittsburgh offensive line is nothing special, just above average. They are helped tremendously by having a healthy Willie Parker, who doesn’t need much of a hole and can out-run defenders if he can just run to daylight. Though the Steelers did almost nothing against Baltimore running the ball (who does?), Arizona is not nearly as stout and guards Chris Kemoeatu and Darnell Stapleton might have chances to get Parker to second level, where he can deadly. As opposed to the other teams the Cardinals defense has faced in the postseason, Pittsburgh won’t give up on the run.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -1

Ben Roethlisberger vs Arizona Secondary

Ben Roethlisberger hangs on to the ball too long and takes too many sacks, yawn, yawn, yawn, tell me something new. When Big Ben is healthy he is slipperier than an eel to take down and finds ways to make plays. Because of his size, he’s an inviting target for defenses to take shots at and defensive coordinators tell there players all week to wrap up Roethlisberger, otherwise he’ll make big plays to win. Guess which one happens more often? Santonio Holmes has been a very good compliment to Hines Ward. The former Georgia product demands coverage help, allowing the speedy Holmes more room to roam. The Arizona secondary won’t be listed among the best in football. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a special talent and Cards coaches had to get him on the field. DRC (that’s insider talk in Phoenix) will still make overaggressive mistakes like any rookie corner and Big Ben will test him. Look for OC Bruce Arians to test Roderick Hood early and often. The best way to exploit Hood is with three receiver sets, making former corner and now safety Antrel Rolle guard somebody else one and one, placing Hood on more of an island. With all this going on, tight end Heath Miller becomes another weapon in Pittsburgh’s arsenal, of which the Cardinals secondary can not lose sight of. The best way to contain Roethlisberger is off the edge, make him step up in the pocket with no escape route. He’s at his best going to his right in open spaces to see the whole field and has the patience to let a receiver run to open area and deliver strike. The Arizona defenders have to keep Big Ben in a U-shaped cup to curtail his effectiveness.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Special Teams

Not much to choose from here as both teams are rather undistinguished. In terms of kicks that could be difference makers, Neil Rackers is 8 for 11 beyond 40 yards for the entire season and one of four past 50 or more yards. Jeff Reed has had much tougher conditions to kick in playing half his games in Heinz Field, yet he is 11 for 15 at 40+ yards. Both have average to below return games on kickoffs and punt returns, though game-breakers are returning kicks. Arizona on average has allowed six more yards per return on kickoffs, though this doesn’t seem to be a significant factor. Looking at the numbers, one could surmise neither team places a great deal of emphasis on special teams and they just presume the players on the field to do what is expected of them.

Spread Differential -None

Coaching

This is a rare matchup of coaches in a Super Bowl game. Beyond the two coaches having to spruce up resumes and work on interviewing skills when the Pittsburgh job opened up two years ago, we don’t know much about either one in such a huge moment, even with a Google search. Not since the 2001 Super Bowl, when Brian Billick and Jim Fassel were on the sidelines for Baltimore and the New York Giants, have we had two coaches without deep backgrounds as head coaches. Both coaches have tough-guy mentalities, with reasonable accountability of their players and they don’t stick with one train of thought to just be stubborn and inflexible. Ken Whisenhunt made the call that Kurt Warner was going to give his team the best chance to win and when Edgerrin James was not producing, did not hesitate to go to Tim Hightower. When it was shown the rookie was not ready for every down duty, Whisenhunt went back to James and praised him for be a professional when relegated to the bench.

Mike Tomlin last season ran a ruthless preseason, establishing himself as the head coach and made the players realize Bill Cowher was indeed gone. Tomlin simplified elements of the Pittsburgh offense and defense, yet never strayed far from the strengths of his squad. If any franchise embodies the fundamentals of professional football, it is Pittsburgh, with blocking and tackling at the core.

Both coaches have proven to be secure in their positions hiring top notch assistants, who could go on to heading coaching jobs one day themselves. With two weeks to prepare, both should have strong game plans designed to negate the other and tricks plays will be used. What we don’t know based on their inexperience on the game’s biggest stage, is how they will react under pressure for certain calls and adjustments to be made.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

Unless you were among the few thousands that trudged to Tempe, AZ to sit in 90 to 100 degree heat for almost two decades and never wavered in your belief the Cardinals would someday be in the Super Bowl, this has been a complete shock. The game of professional football has followed the same path as college basketball and major league baseball; it’s what you do late that counts. Arizona has essentially been an underdog just like the Giants were last season, though the Cardinals did have the benefit of two home games. The underdog role fits this team perfectly, just fueling the motivation it needs to just keep on playing outstanding football. The Cardinals are just the second Super Bowl team to have seven losses (1979 L.A. Rams, played Pittsburgh by the way in SB XIV) and like the Giants are free of any expectations coming into Tampa. The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.

Pittsburgh is a deserved favorite, having played seven regular season games against teams that made the NFL playoffs, plus New England and Dallas who were post-season caliber. The Steelers were favored 13 times and came away winners on 10 occasions (7-6 ATS), winning by an average margin of eight points. Pittsburgh does have the better team, which has played better all season long. In retrospect, the Giants were hot last year and New England had already peaked and still could have won except for miracle catch. This is not the case with the Steelers who have proven to be a top notch thoroughbred from start to finish. Since Roethlisberger’s arrival, Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Spread Differential –Arizona -1

Cumulative Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -6

NFC Title Game Preview

Since adopting the 12-team playoff format in 1990, the National Football Conference has been a button-down affair. Last year the fifth seeded New York Giants were the lowest seed ever to make the NFC Championship game, being the first ever to be below a three seed to do so. This year, the NFC looks like a NCAA regional basketball bracket which has been loaded with upsets, as No. 4 Arizona will play host to No. 6 Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl, unfathomable.

The Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs is hard enough to believe, but playing for the right to be NFC champions, it’s time to call the Ripley’s people. Against Atlanta two weeks ago, Arizona hosted its first playoff game since moving to the desert over 20 years ago and now this!

Why do the Cardinals suddenly have better than snow balls chance in Scottsdale to win this contest, considering they lost to Philadelphia by 28 on Thanksgiving night and were wiped out at New England 47-7 less then a month ago? Start with the quarterback Kurt Warner, who raised his record to 7-2 (4-4-1 ATS) in the postseason with upset of Carolina. Warner is the wily vet this team turns to for his experience. Coach Ken Whisenhunt deserves a 20-foot cactus size amount of credit, back from his days with Pittsburgh, for knowing you have to run to win in the playoffs and letting the past go, reinserting Edgerrin James. The 71 carries the last two weeks keeps defenses from just rushing Warner to stop the Cardinals prolific passing game. One defense, Arizona now looks like, well Philadelphia and has forced a dozen turnovers in last three games, with opponents averaging just 74 yards per game rushing in this stretch. The Cardinals have this unlikely home game, where they are 7-2 and 6-3 ATS this season.

If your surprised to see Arizona here, how about the Eagles? After tying Cincinnati and being bulldozed by Baltimore 36-7, Philadelphia had a short week to prepare for Arizona for Turkey Day night game. Donovan McNabb was benched and looked finished in Philly and though the Eagles coaches would never admit it, likely the only reason McNabb was not benched against Arizona was because they could not put in offense for backup Kevin Kolb on a short week. That game became the turning point as McNabb found a rhythm and the offense started to click. Coach Andy Reid went back to basics, relying on offensive line and Brian Westbrook and started running the ball, not worrying if every running play worked. The offense gelled, McNabb’s confidence and accuracy returned and everything fell into place. The Eagles defense has been almost impregnable in last six weeks, surrendering 11 points a game.

It is back to the road favorite role for Philadelphia, with the opening line showing them as three-point favorites, just like they were in wild card win over Minnesota. Since that time, Bookmaker.com has moved them to four-point play with total of 47. The Eagles are trying to become the third team in four years to win three consecutive road games in the postseason to make it to the Super Bowl. Philly is 12-12 ATS the last four seasons as road favorites. This will be Philadelphia’s fifth appearance in the NFC title game since 2002 and they are 1-3 and 2-2 ATS. The Eagles are 19-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game.

Arizona will of course be playing the “no respect” card this week, being home underdogs, which should provide additional fuel. Since moving to Glendale, the Cardinals have enjoyed a much better home field advantage and are 3-1 SU and against the spread on the receiving end of points under Whisenhunt. They are 28-12 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game.

No matter the outcome, history will be made, either the Cards as the lowest home seed to make the Super Bowl or the Eagles the lowest seed ever from the NFC.

What you Need to Know

For Philadelphia to win, they need to be physical with Arizona receivers, especially Larry Fitzgerald, trying to throw off timing of routes. Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, must run the ball to setup passing offense. On defense, Jim Johnson knows the way to get Warner off his game is by pressure; he will certainly try to bring the heat.

Arizona has stuffed two outstanding running teams in Atlanta and Carolina and needs the trifecta to travel to Tampa. The defensive front has been terrific and has set the table for bad throws by opposing quarterbacks. The Cards O-Line has to win first down to keep Warner out of third and long, when the Eagles will fly around on defense.

Key System- Play Against any team that knocks off the defending Super Bowl champions if their next game is not in the Super Bowl. (9-1 ATS)

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror - NFL Playoffs

While this year’s NFL postseason tournament more resembles a NCAA basketball tournament bracket, with the vast number of upsets and top seeds going down in a heap, a few reliable formulas are still working as we head towards the Conference championships and the Super Bowl.

The Basics

Thus far home teams are taking on the chin, despite the raucous crowd support these teams enjoy. Homers are 3-5 SU and against the spread, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years) As favorites, these home teams are 2-3 ATS. Though weather was more a factor for the division games, the Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point, tying the most in three years, when we also had a sixth seed (Pittsburgh) in the conference finals. In the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15. For what it’s worth, the Over is 6-2 the last four years in conference championships, more coming this week?

Turnovers

There are two tried principles every sports bettor’s wish they had the Magic 8-ball for to determine the outcome of playoff games. Every year we hear about how turnovers will determine the outcome of games and this year is no different. The eight winners are a +16 this far, with only San Diego’s win over Indianapolis being the surprise of sorts having a -2 turnover margin. Teams with that edge are 6-1 ATS with one game having the same amount of turnovers.
Turnovers, especially fumbles, are considered random events by most sports handicappers; however they are magnified in the playoffs, with emotions at such a fevered pitch. Turnovers seemingly create such an extreme response when it comes to the players, being sky high when they go in a teams favor and an almost ashen-look on the faces of the players of the team that turned it over. The unpredictable nature of a Chad Pennington throwing seven interceptions all year and following that up with four picks in loss to Baltimore is mind-boggling. Or Tennessee out-gaining the Ravens 391-211 in total yards, having the ball for over 34 minutes, yet committing three turnovers, two as fumbles (eight during the regular season) costing them a chance at victory. Determine the winner of turnover battle, that’s your winner.

Quarterbacks

The NFL is known as quarterback league and though any defense will influence how a signal caller will play over four quarters, their impact on any given game is immense. In the wild card games, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb out-performed their counterparts in leading their teams to victory. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco didn’t outplay either of his two opponents per se; however he made a few key plays in each game and didn’t make the big mistake. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme was crestfallen with his performance against Arizona and he should have been in throwing five interceptions.

Besides Delhomme’s meltdown, the game that signified the importance of quarterback play was Philadelphia and the Giants. Eli Manning was having a terrible time throwing the ball into the wind, tossing several knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield would have been proud of. Manning’s troubles weren’t just against the wind, as he overthrew open receivers or missed the target by a foot or more on slant routes that demand precision. Remember, Manning until last year’s late season run was known for poor mechanics. McNabb had no such issues, throwing tight spirals all day, with his only problems being on short touch passes into the wind that demanded loft, not velocity, throwing the pigskin off course. Both defenses played great games, but in the end, McNabb ability to make plays and Manning’s equal inability to not so was the difference. Expect this to influence this week’s conference championships as well.

Running the Ball

Being able to run the ball, not necessarily for a ton of yards, but to have attempts that keep a defense honest, is another important factor in winning playoff games. While detractors will point to the passing game that sets up victory in many cases to allow teams to run the ball late in games, the recent success of Philadelphia and Arizona, two teams known for throwing the ball, have found greater success with offensive balance. The team with the most rushing attempts is 6-2 SU and ATS in this year’s playoffs. The average difference in carries for the winning team is 32.6 to 23.7 per game.

Stopping the Run

Here’s a thought-provoking question, how many times have you heard a coach or player say, we have to stop the run of the opposing team? The answer is most of the time and there is good reason for it. Being run on is defensively demoralizing. When a team is passing the ball, certain elements have to come together, the receiver has to get open and run the correct route. The quarterback has to have protection and deliver the ball on time and accurately. If any of those things don’t happen, a pass can be incomplete. The running game is simpler, it’s about blocking and tackling and the runner hitting the hole. Certainly their can be similar breakdowns that destroy plays, yet stopping the opponent from running makes them one dimensional and easier to defend. As fellow StatFox cohort Steve found, teams that allow the fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season has always been a solid wager and this season is incredible 7-1 ATS. (See Platinum Sheet for other unique info) This week that favors the teams from the Keystone State, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Betting Keys to Five Key NFL Games in Week 15

The regular season is winding down and so are the remaining opportunities to keep winning wagers in the NFL. The NFC South has three of its teams involved in crucial contests, which will be critical to who ends at the top of the division and who makes the playoffs. The New York Jets have been grounded with a pair of defeats and will attempt to take flight again and keep share of the division lead versus AFC East rival Buffalo. Arizona won first division title since Bruce Springsteen released instant classic ‘Born to Run” album and now have to deal with celebrity and how to prepare for postseason and teams on the remainder schedule like Minnesota. Finally, Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew un-pleasantries, with extra ambulances and doctors on call. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 15 numbers.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Falcons -3, 44.5)

It’s inconceivable the Tampa Bay defense will be steamrolled a second straight time, even facing Michael Turner. Similar to Carolina, Atlanta prefers to move the chains and try a few deep balls. The Buccaneers defense has to control third downs or it could be another tough road loss. On offense Garcia needs more help from offensive line, to start running game and play-action passing. The Bucs are 11-4-1 ATS in recent battles. Atlanta leads the league in first quarter points with 94. This shows excellent planning and execution and home keeps the crowd in the game. The Falcons defense has to do better job against the run, permitting 123.4 yards a game the last five weeks. Make Tampa Bay one dimensional, which frees up John Abraham to rush Jeff Garcia. If Roddy White catches three long passes, good chance the favorite moves to 16-5-1 ATS in this southern showdown.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Jets -7.5, 41)

Brett Favre has to load up on Red Bull or some energy drink, as once again his play is noticeably slipping late in the season. Opposing teams have devised ways to take away deep ball from Jets, with no burners and the secondary has more holes than Dunkin Donuts without a pass rush. When New York had five game winning streak, they scored on first possession, put the right plays together to make that happen again. Buffalo players are wondering why offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has gotten so pass happy, especially with two quarterbacks with limited ability in that persuasion. The Bills work better running the pigskin and blending the pass. Buffalo has covered seven of last 10, the defense will need to win field position battle and force two or more miscues.

Denver at Carolina (Panthers -7.5, 48)

Mike Shanahan’s team has been impossible to figure, however they might bloviate having the opportunity to attack Carolina corners with Jay Cutler tossing the ball, after seeing how open Tampa Bay receivers were down the field. By now the Broncos don’t worry whose running, with turnstile efforts this season. Carolina can be run on. Denver has actually been better against the run with 4-3 setup and safety near the line of scrimmage. If they fail to stop Panthers back, Broncos drop to 1-9 ATS in December after a pair of wins and covers. This is Carolina’s last home game and NFC South teams are 23-2, 18-6-1 ATS at home in 2008. Off the huge win last Monday, a drop in intensity would wipe out potential importance of Giants game next week. John Fox’s squad can control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this matchup and bludgeon Broncos with Steve Smith down the field.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals -3, 47)

Tavaris Jackson will get the call for the Vikes who want him to play like he did last week in relief of Frerotte. If Arizona could, they would wear Detroit helmets, as Adrian Peterson has five fumbles against the Lions this season. Peterson knows he has to secure the ball better, with Cardinals swooping in to swipe the ball away. The Vikings run of the mill secondary will need Jared Allen and others to rattle Warner. The Cardinals will want to improve certain areas before playoffs (does that sound odd), while keeping wins coming. Kurt Warner has eight turnovers in last four games, not acceptable. The running game has to rise to well below average instead of 32nd. A hundred yard effort against Minny would be big confidence boost. Play like a division champion at home against a visitor that is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning home records.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, 34)

Pittsburgh is well renowned for playing with intensity, however this stage will have Baltimore stoked. The Steelers must match the Ravens and stop them at the point of attack when running the ball. Flacco was often confused last week, with Dick LeBeau calling the defense he’ll do whatever he can to the rookie to keep in same state of mind. Baltimore has to consistently win first and second down, Keeping Joe Flacco in manageable situations and Ben Roethlisberger in third and long. Baltimore will take stupid penalties when they are too juiced up, they must maintain poise and not give away free yards to Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins.

The Cardinals are Big Chalk on Monday Night Football

If the Cardinals don’t find a way to win the NFC West this year, they never will. Since the move from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, the franchise has suffered a losing record in 17 of 20 seasons, but not last year when the Cardinals closed with back-to-back wins to finish 8-8. Sun Devil Stadium didn’t offer much in terms of home-field advantage during the Cardinals’ first 18 years in the desert, but their new state-of-the-art venue in Glendale seems to have changed that parameter for the better with a 9-2 and 8-3 spread record since its opening.

Arizona has done some serious home cooking with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), beating Miami, Buffalo and Dallas so far this season by a combined 102-51.

Bookmaker.com has established the division leading Redbirds as 10-point home favorites (down from opening 11), with a total of 47.5. The Cards are flushed with new-found success and have to take the next step in overcoming the past with 0-7 ATS record as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.

With San Francisco in town on Monday night, the Cardinals will take the University of Phoenix Stadium field for the first time in a month. The last time they were home they made NFL history, beating the Cowboys 30-24 in overtime on a recovered blocked punt in the end zone. Arizona had a bye the following week, lost 27-23 in Carolina in Week 8 and won 34-13 in St. Louis last Sunday.

A postseason berth is the goal for the Cardinals, who had to face only two returning playoff teams over their first nine games. They lead the NFC West by three games over each of their three rivals, none of which seems capable of a turnaround.

The 49ers are 2-6 SU and ATS, and making headlines for all the wrong reasons. San Francisco, which lost 23-13 at home to Arizona in Week 1 thanks to five turnovers, became a league spectacle two weeks ago when interim head coach Mike Singletary sent Vernon Davis to the locker room after the third quarter of a 34-13 loss to Seattle, blasted the third-year tight end in the post-game press conference and apologized to fans. The next day, Singletary benched quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill. The Niners will come into this AFC West encounter only 5-14 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

Hill led the 49ers to a pair of victories late last season and had the benefit of a bye week to help get ready for Arizona, which has allowed 218.2 yards passing per game (18th overall) and 16 touchdowns—most in the NFL. Hill looked relatively sharp in relief of O’Sullivan against the Seahawks and completed 15 of 23 attempts for 173 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. This will be his first career start on the road for a squad that is 6-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.

San Francisco covers if they do what they do best, run the ball. Frank Gore is still their best weapon; make him the top priority is establish a pace to the game, which should help Hill in the short passing game. Hill has shown the ability in his limited action to read and get rid of the ball, something O’Sullivan was getting worse at each week taking so many sacks. Defensively, San Fran needs an identity; pick one, 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Lastly, get Vernon Davis the ball, otherwise he becomes a distraction by not touching the ball as the team and media views it as a rift. The 49ers must control the clock and score. Otherwise they fall to 0-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game since 2006.

Arizona covers if they are focused. Being so far ahead in the division despite having a lack of organizational success for decades, this is the kind of game the Cardinals can prove before a national audience they should be taken seriously. The easiest way to beat a beleaguered opponent is to jump on them early, this should figure into Arizona’s game plan. This should also be a contest the Cards can get back to fundamentals by tackling better, something that been a problem all season. Kurt Warner and company averages 387 yards of offense, if they can do just a little better, they’ll take care of the Niners who are 3-16 ATS in road games when they allow 400 or more total yards.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play against any underdog who has allowed 24 or more points in two straight games. This system is 25-11-1 ATS, 69.4 percent.

NFL Quarterback Carousel

Round and round, up and down.

So goes the beloved amusement park pastime and so goes the quarterback carousel in the National Football League.

The scenario that has played out in 2008 could not have been predicted by anyone and has the signs of becoming even more complex. This is about as crazy of a game of musical quarterbacks as I've seen in my brief sportslife.

Through nine weeks of the season we’ve witnessed 46 different signal callers under center for 32 teams. There have been six permanent quarterback changes due to performance or injury and after this week, only half of the teams will still be playing with the same QB they started the season with.

You might be able to point the blame of this quarterback chaos to Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard. He sparked this uncontrollable downward spiral after rolling into Tom Brady’s knee, effectively ending his year (and my fantasy football season) in the first quarter of Week 1.

And now Matt Cassel, who never started a game in college and was probably a better baseball prospect than football player, is attempting to lead the New England Patriots back to the Super Bowl where perfection narrowly escaped the dynasty a season ago.

The QB changes are many I have to use extreme brevity in this recap because you would grow tired of scrolling through the pages if I delved deep into the intricacies of each alteration.

I'm going to spare elaborating on teams like the Chiefs who have had 16 different quarterbacks (okay, maybe just three) and the Lions who also have a new QB, but still haven’t won a game even with the departure of the evil Matt Millen.

I won't even begin to mention how the Tennessee Titans made the right move by benching youngster Vince Young, whose commitment to football is questionable at this point, and opting for wily veteran Kerry Collins.

Vikings head man Brad Childress must have stolen a play from the Jeff Fisher quarterback school of thought as Minnesota also elected to resurrect a has-been from the brink of extinction in Gus Ferrotte, opposed to enduring another learning season from inexperienced gunslinger Tavaris Jackson.

And who could forget the Brian Griese experiment? He did throw for 407 yards after winging the ball 67 times in a win at Chicago but subsequently lost his starting job two games later to Jeff Garcia.

If I haven’t lost you already, strap into those saddles and stirrups because this ride is about to get rowdy.

The merry-go-round continues with the NFC West, which has experienced complete quarterback disarray. All four teams have encountered some form of QB controversy at one point this season. Trent “I Have A Concussion” Green got a sympathy start from the Rams former head coach Scott Linehan but current coach Jim Haslett has since reverted back to old ways with Marc Bulger at the helm.

The Seahawks went 1-3 with Matt “Bad Back” Hasselbeck to begin the season and are 1-3 without him since. That team has been decimated by injuries all over the field and you can’t expect Seneca Wallace to guide Seattle to a fifth consecutive division title. Hasselbeck is expected to return in Week 11.

How about the laughable San Francisco 49ers? They drop 24 million on a #1 overall pick in Alex Smith who has turned out to be about as good as Ryan Leaf. So they opt to go with offensive coordinator Martz’s man who came to the Bay from Detroit. But that guinea pig failed as J.T. O’Sullivan helped them to a 2-6 record and as soon as Mike Singletary replaced Nolan as the head coach, found himself standing on the sidelines. This week, Shaun Hill is preparing himself to be the most recent 49ers quarterback failure.

I have the perfect remedy for the Niners. They need to put Michael Robinson, former Penn State QB, and Frank Gore in the backfield and run the Wildcat formation every down. You even have Arnaz Battle, who was a thrower back in his days with the Irish, to set up the triple Wildcat backfield! What defense wouldn’t be confused with all the reverses, pitches, handoffs and an occasional toss to Vernon Davis?

The final portion of this NFC West shakedown involves the division leader in a pre-season QB change. Question remains, will Matt Leinhart ever live up to the expectations bestowed upon him?

Ken Wisenhunt surely isn’t sold on him as being the future of his Arizona Cardinals club. He has had three seasons to take the starting job that has essentially been shoved to him on a silver platter. But Arena Football League star turned Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner has claimed the top spot season after season.

And Warner is ready to retire at the drop of a dime. He threw a bad pass to Anquan Boldin who got his jaw shattered and felt bad so he wanted to quit. How bad do you have to be to not snatch the starting job away from a guy who doesn’t even really want to play anymore?

I guess if you have Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith you really don’t have to be that good to win ballgames. And maybe he wasn’t, perhaps we should ask the 2005 National Champion Texas Longhorns.

Speaking of USC Heisman Trophy winners, this should have been the year that Carson Palmer was talked about in the same breath as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. But that may never happen.

Palmer put together a stellar season in 2005 and showed glimpses of greatness, but ever since that knee injury has been nothing but disappointing. Now he needs Tommy John surgery? Isn’t that a surgical procedure for baseball players? Regardless, Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it around in Cincy and that should hint to someone that the team needs a complete overhaul.

So the Houston Texans finally found their man huh? Snatched Matt Schaub away from the Falcons, just before the Vickster gets indicted on dog fighting charges, to replace David Carr. Who I have to say was the beneficiary of a good college team and system…ahem…Alex Smith.

But now Schaub is out 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL and “Pinch of Sage” Rosenfels will get a second opportunity to prove his worth. He suited up against the Colts in Week 5 and nearly had a stranglehold on the starting gig but threw a pick-six and fumbled away two balls to allow Indy to overcome a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.

Our pinkie finger is probably the most expendable appendage we have. But to Tony Romo and the Cowboys it is worth its weight in gold. Seriously though, a pinkie? I pick my nose with my pinkie finger, and that’s about all it is good for. You should be able to throw a football with a bum pinkie.

No matter, the ‘Boys are 1-2 without their savior and his second coming may be too late. They sit at the bottom of the NFC East standings with a 5-4 record and have a brutal schedule left after their bye week, starting with a date in Washington against the ‘Skins.

The most recent changing of the guard happened in our first NFL Network Thursday night matchup. Four-year pro Derek Anderson might have splintered his booty squirming around on the bench having to watch pretty-boy Brady Quinn get the nod after starting 23 straight contests.

Anderson just hadn’t appeared to have been able to put up to the lofty numbers he did a season ago (29 TDs, 3700+ yards), but maybe if Braylon Edwards could catch a pass or Kellen Winslow actually tried to run a route he could have kept his job.

And I’m sure his uneasiness didn’t subside after the kid went 23-35 with 239 yards and a couple of touchies. Well, at least Kellen Winslow was still dropping passes and fumbling balls. That guy needs to take a seat in the corner and put on the dunce hat or he is about to REALLY start pissing some people off.

There looks to be another QB swap on the horizon as well, but most likely a temporary one. We never heard the end of “Rex is our quarterback” from Chicago coach Lovie Smith in 2007. And then Da Bears roll into 2008 with the “Kyle is our quarterback” campaign plastered all over the walls.

This worked out pretty well until Orton went down with a high ankle sprain last weekend. And now we will get to see how disgusting Grossman can look against the mighty Titans defense. He was able to mount a comeback in last week’s game, throwing for a score and running in another, but this test won’t be against the hapless Detroit Lions.

As long as quarterbacks in the NFL keep underachieving and getting injured, we’ll keep pumping tokens into this carousel.


Scott Cooley is a free-lance writer and chimes in from time to time at 3Daily Winners.