Covering the Wagering Scene for All 94 Feet

With basketball taking over the landscape the rest of winter and a large portion of spring once that game with all the roman numerals is completed, thought we would try something new. Here is what I saw, heard or read this past weekend in basketball.

The Memphis Tigers win against Tennessee in Knoxville was important for John Calipari’s team but doesn’t need to be oversold. The Tigers shot 33.9 percent (15-56) against a defense that has allowed all opponents to convert 43.3 percent on the season. While coach Bruce Pearl has altered some defensive concepts, the win over Vanderbilt on the road earlier this week, looks a whole lot less impressive with what Florida did to the Commodores on Sunday, beating them by 25. Memphis is a good team that can play exceptional defense, yet is a squad with no player who is noteworthy on the offensive end and everyone other than guard Tyreke Evans needs to be set up to have a chance to score. Not really certain if Memphis is anything other than a game to game wager at about .500.

The Big Ten is generally better than most believed back in October, yet it might not translate into March. Michigan State engineered an impressive comeback at Ohio State, outscoring the Buckeyes 52-36, to win by 11 and cover the three point road favorite number. At the same time it was also visible to see why the Spartans are only 3-4 ATS this month. Raymar Morgan is imperative to their success and his illness is inhibiting Tom Izzo’s club from reaching its potential. Morgan just can't seem to fully shake the viral infection that has now affected him for three games, though players like Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas are coming on. If Morgan gets healthy, watch out.

Illinois proved they are the second best team in the conference, ahead of Purdue at this juncture. Though nowhere near as talented as the team the played for national championship a few years back, the Fighting Illini pass the ball as well as any team in the country and doubts of Bruce Webber being able to recruit with the development of the sophomore class are being forgotten like Savage Garden song.

Ohio State doesn’t have enough offense and players that look ready to meet the challenge when adversity strikes. Almost hard to comprehend how soft Wisconsin is on defense with Bo Ryan still coaching.

Connecticut without a doubt has the look of a team capable of winning six games in late March and early April. What stood out in their win against Notre Dame was the versatility and desire displayed. Jerome Dyson and A. J. Price played well in the backcourt and Kemba Walker looked good coming of the bench. Forward Jeff Adrein looks like he’s been working out with LeBron and a team of Russian weightlifters and fought for every rebound. Hasheem Thabeet has skills as defensive player, with virtually nobody like him in college basketball, however he looks like a real project at the next level to be a contributor scoring.

Notre Dame is fast turning into a major disappointment and all Mike Brey can try and do is restore his player’s confidence. Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland and Tory Jackson shot the ball so poorly; it looked like they couldn’t throw the ball in the nearby St. Joes’s river, let alone into the cylinder. The Irish are not quick and if they can’t score, they will really struggle. I’m not sure how you bet on the Irish right now.

How cool is it being Craig Robinson this past week? Who is Mr. Robinson you ask? This past week his sister officially became the First Lady and his brother-in-law picked up a cool gig for at least four years in Washington. He returned back to Corvallis as the Oregon State basketball coach and all his team does is travel northern Cali, where they upset California and Stanford as 17.5-point and 16-point road dogs. This raised their record to 8-10 and 7-7 ATS and the Beavers are 3-5 SU in the Pac-10 after a 0-18 campaign a season ago. Maybe the whole change thing hangin’ around President Obama has something to it. Not sure if Oregon State deserves our attention just yet with cash, however a few home dogs roles are coming, so watch for numbers that might work.

Louisville’s performance at Syracuse was sick it was so good. Coach Rick Pitino has sold his team on “team” and look at the results! Circle next Monday, UConn at the ‘Ville.

I’ve seen San Antonio enough to formulate this thought, they are done. Not like a well-done steak at Ruth Chris, more like their time is up as being a true NBA championship contender done. All the different websites that have standings still have them in first place in the Southwest Division, nevertheless, the Lakers blew them out Sunday and an improved Andrew Bynum played Tim Duncan to a standstill. The Spurs are still a good team and some nights very good, but unless King James demands a trade southwest Texas, San Antonio is not going to beat the Lakers in a seven game series. Since Dec. 23, the Duncan gang is 3-6 ATS in all games where the spread was (+) or (–) 7.5 points.

Hey GM Steve Kerr, how’s that remake working in Phoenix? He moved Shawn Marion for what became known as the Big Cactus and presently Miami and the Suns have nearly the same record this season with the Suns 14-27-1 ATS. Jason Richardson for Raja Bell and Boris Diaw? This month Charlotte is 7-5 and 9-3 ATS, the setting Suns, .500 and 2-9-1 against the spread.

Though Kerr was technically correct in wanting to build a more traditional team, attempting to have 30-something players and a cast that doesn’t know how to play defense to become suddenly defensive-minded, well that’s like laying in the desert sun in the summer time and expecting not to get burnt.

New Year’s Day Bowl Games Early Starters

Happy New Year! With the advent of 2009 (doesn’t the turn of the century seem like it wasn’t that long ago) the Cotton Bowl opted out for a date for tomorrow, helping out all of us that had a little too much fun and stayed up a little too late last night. On paper at least, we appear to have three games that have possibilities of being close. The old-school belief is now when the favorites start coming in with regularity in bowl contests, let’s see if the New Year starts out that way.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs South Carolina

More than one eyebrow was raised when this contest was announced to start the New Year’s Day bowl festivities. This makes this a more compelling meeting for each, looking to erase doubts. Iowa started 3-3, with three defeats by nine points. The Hawkeyes put it together, culminating in an upset of Penn State. After 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota, Iowa is 17-5 ATS after a game committing no turnovers. The vaunted South Carolina defense caved in for 87 points in last two losses, with zero help from offense. With Iowa solid defensively, surprisingly the Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS vs teams who give up 14 or less PPG. The Hawkeyes are meager 2-6 ATS as bowl favorite, with USC marginally better 2-4 ATS as dog.

Why to Watch and Wager

Steve Spurrier is very aware his team has faded down the stretch the last two years. In fact losing the last couple of games have become common place in Columbia, having done so six of the last seven seasons. Spurrier, seldom the positive sort, has taken a more positive approach since losing to Clemson and wants his players to enjoy the moment and end the season on upbeat note. It might not be that easy for the Gamecocks who are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has won five of last six with ball-hawking defense that is +8 in turnover margin during this streak. Running back Shonn Greene has led the Hawkeyes offense and they have gotten just enough out the passing game to average 30.2 points per game. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the Outback Bowl, the favorite is 14-6 against the spread with Big Ten 4-2 ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – Iowa -3.5, 43

Capital One Bowl- Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State (9-3, 6-6 ATS) is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl for the first time in nine seasons as they believe they are on the right track to make this annual event. The Spartans were waxed 49-18 by Penn State in their finale, but that’s nothing new and coach Mark Dantonio teams are 9-1 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. Possibly Georgia (9-3, 3-6-2 ATS) could have lived up to the preseason hype of number one if they could have fielded the team they thought they had in July, but injuries took care of any dreams. Coach Mark Richt teams traditionally have been good away from home, 15-6 ATS playing against a team with 75 percent or higher win percentage. The Bulldogs are good 15-11 ATS in bowls (7-3 ATS L10), with Spartans 5-4 ATS as underdogs.

Why to Watch and Wager

For Georgia, it’s about getting the running game going against Michigan State. In the Bulldogs three losses, Knowshon Moreno was held under the century mark. The coaches have also reviewed the run defense, which allowed 226.4 yards per game in last five encounters, including distressing 409 to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites in last seven outings. Michigan State assuredly will test that Georgia front with Javon Ringer, who finished third nationally in rushing at 132.5 yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns with 21. Quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to play well for the Spartans to pull the upset and Michigan State is 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This bowl has been recently dominated by the Big Ten with five covers in six games, with the only loser being in overtime. In fact, the Big Ten has a streak of four consecutive outright upsets in Orlando.

Bookmaker.com Line – Georgia -7.5, 55

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Nebraska

Clemson University rewarded Dabo Swinney with head coaching position, for making the best of difficult situation and guiding the Tigers (7-5, 4-6 ATS) to three wins to close the season. Clemson finally lived up to preseason hype, with defense that was ranked 15th overall. They will be called on again against high-powered Nebraska offense that scores 36.2 points per game. The Cornhuskers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) made strides to return to past glories with eight wins this season. Nebraska is a ball-hog on offense, holding it for over 33 minutes a game. The Huskers out-played Colorado in final home game, yet is 0-7 ATS after out-gaining foe by 125 or more total yards. Oddly, Nebraska is 15-15 ATS in bowls. The ACC is 7-0 ATS in this bowl, though Clemson was the last loser in 2001 game.

Why to Watch and Wager

After a tumultuous season, Clemson can still cap the year with a New Year’s Day triumph. The Tigers are making their ninth Gator Bowl appearance and have the same number of functioning weapons they had to start the season. Quarterback Cullen Harper and the backfield of James Davis and C.J. Spiller were all swallowed up by ineffective offensive line, until gaining confidence late in year, which allowed them to win four of five. It should be noted, Clemson averaged just 16.8 points per game away from home compared to 25.5 overall. The Tigers are only 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Nebraska returns to bowl game after one year absence and plays in this bowl for the first time ever. Senior quarterback Joe Ganz was among the plethora of fine signal callers in the Big 12. The Cornhuskers won five of last six and averaged 38 points per game in last three. Even in winning, Nebraska average better than two turnovers a game and is 2-10 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins. The favorite has cashed in nine of last 12 Gator Bowls.

Bookmaker.com Line – Clemson -2, 56

Methods to Improve your College Hoops Handicapping

College basketball is a sport that has more variance by teams from season to season than any other. You are dealing only with five players competing at one time against another team. One player can make a huge difference in a team’s results on a straight-up basis and also in covering the point spread. If you were a NCAA hoops fan in 1988, you will remember Danny and the Miracles winning it all for the University of Kansas. Can anyone name any of Danny Manning’s teammates?

It is never too early to start looking at a team’s characteristics and tendencies in college hoops. After all, you want to get on a team or find squads to bet against as early as possible when the point spreads and totals might not be entirely in line. Many of the teams you find to bet against will not be in the same form they were last year or not living up to expectations. And, obviously, just the opposite is true when looking for teams to put on your “play on list”. You can find line value on the surprise teams that everybody else hasn’t already spotted and you can find get extra points going against the disappointing teams.

Many times when a coach leaves a program, especially after a few good years, it seems the program takes a downturn, as if the outgoing coach knew the incoming and returning talent wasn’t going to be able to keep up with the success of prior campaigns. This appears to be the situation at Wichita State with Mark Turgeon leaving the wheat fields of Kansas for the Aggies of Texas A&M last year. WSU struggled with all types of bad luck last season even though they were able to hire a fine coach, Greg Marshall, with a very good track record. As head coach of Big South Winthrop, Marshall led his team to seven NCAA Tournament appearances in nine years. That is even more impressive when you realize this is a league that gets one invitation to the Big Dance.

Marshall has taken a diverse team of newbies and covered the spread three games in a row against quality competition including Georgetown and Michigan State. This is a team that was picked in the bottom three of the Missouri Valley Conference. Marshall is an excellent teacher and I expect WSU to outperform preseason predictions. They are currently sporting a 4-0 against the spread record and a team worth watching.

UNLV is a team that was picked to win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 25. A strong recruiting class was supposed to help the three returning starters, especially in the middle where the Rebels started 6-7 Joe Darger at center last year. Five-star recruit 7-0 Beas Hamga has seen virtually zero minutes as he is the epitome of a project. UNLV is counting on 3-point shots to fall as their lack of an inside presence has hurt them. The offense revolves around star guard Wink Adams. If he is not playing up to par, UNLV is an average team at best. The Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS even though they were picked to win the Mountain West Conference. UNLV dropped two games over the weekend with Adams going 5 for 25 from the field averaging 7.5 ppg.

In determining which teams to wager on, a statistic I like to look at is the difference in offensive field goal shooting and defensive shooting percentage. I have long maintained that good shooting teams are ones you want to look at to back against the point spread. Playing good defense only makes a team tougher to beat. Wake Forest is among leaders the nation in this category along with Arizona and Utah. Stew Morrill’s teams are always tough Utah State and they lead the country in shooting percentage at 56.6 percent. These are the types of teams I will look to play on as the season progresses.

Teams that are at the other end of the spectrum are Wright State, Louisiana-Monroe, Drexel, and UC-Irvine. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that a team that doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t defend well is not a good team to bet on. These are teams I put in my “play against” file.

Another statistical area I like to examine is a teams’ turnover differential. When you have many teams only taking 57 to 63 shots per game, a discrepancy in the number of net turnovers each team has can make a difference in the outcome of the game. Teams that have a very good differential include Louisville, Houston, Davidson, West Virginia, Missouri, and Nebraska. These teams also have a 14-6 ATS mark at the time of writing this article. Protecting the rock while being able to steal it are two qualities I want in teams I back.

I am always wary of putting my money on teams that shoot an extraordinary number of three-point goals relative to their two-point field goal attempts. If hoisting shots up from downtown is a team’s main method of offense, it can be a long day if the bombs are not going down. A bad shooting night can obviously happen, especially on the road away from the comforts and familiarity of your home gym. Teams rarely get to the free throw often when they are camping out behind the three-point arc which increases the reliance of making those 3’s.

Some good examples of teams shooting a relatively high number of 3’s and a low number of free throws are Iowa State, 14th out of 344 teams on three-point attempts, 326th on free-throw attempts. Troy is 22nd in TPA’s and 340th in FTA’s, Tennessee-Martin, 42nd and 324th, and Akron, 47th and 320th. Combined, these teams have a 3-11 ATS record. These will be teams I will avoid playing on and will be on my play against list when they are on the road.

On a side note, it is still too early to determine if moving the three-point line back a foot to 20’9” will make much of a difference. Currently there is a 1.2% reduction in the percentage of 3’s being made out of the 344 Division-1 teams, 33.2% this year compared to 34.4% last year. Teams overall are cutting back just a shade on the percentage of shots from behind the arc, 33.3% of all field goal attempts this year versus 34.4% last season.

These are some basic methods to start making a play on/against directory of teams. With so many lined teams, it is wise to have some methodologies to par your respective lists down.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority contributed this article.

Wednesday Betting Information

A peculiar 1-1-1 day as Tennessee pushed at home with line moving up to -27. I was pleased to be on Florida State and escaped by a single point. The Washington Generals couldn’t beat the Harlem Globetrotters, sorry Miami Heat as expected. We have a perfect Trend loaded for reasoning in the NBA this evening. No great systems available today, thus will look to college football on Saturday with TWO plays out an 81.8 percent system. Also, the LCC checks in on tonight's important college football game.Good Luck.

Updating 3Daily Winners at monitors.

Free Sports Monitor #1 NFL
Free Sports Monitor #2 CBB
The Sports Eye #3 NFL
The Sports Eye #5 CFB
The Sports Eye #1 NHL (Free Plays)
Cappers Watchdog #7 NFL (Win percentage - Min.20 plays)
Cappers Watchdog #2 NHL (Win percentage)


Free Football System-1) Play Against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after having won three out of their last four games against opponent after having won six or seven out of their last eight games. This college football system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent. There are two Play Against teams the fit, Air Force and Michigan State.

Free Basketball Trend -2) UTAH is 11-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has tonight's big MAC game this way - Central Michigan 10 members, Ball State minus the points 3 members.