With
North Carolina cutting down the nets in Detroit, the 2008-09 college hoops season is history and what can happen next season keeps alumni contributing to their school’s athletic fund and dreaming of sitting behind the team bench in next year’s Final Four. The cry comes out “if we only would have had better facilities” we would have landed that five-star recruit from Montrose Oak Prep Academy.
For the sports bettor, it is never too early to start looking at next year in college hoops. With so many teams and players and coaches moving to a new program, college hoops requires the most preseason handicapping preparation of all sports. Actually, this is the best time to start taking notes while this current season is still fresh on your mind. Hours invested today in study and research are reminiscent of what retirement accounts and mutual funds used to be like: things that grow in value as time goes by.
It is time to start checking schools recruiting classes and incoming, as well as outgoing, transfers. When you actually check the number of transfers that even actually play for their new school, it is alarmingly less than you would expect. Or they fail to live up to lofty expectations, such as the case of originally highly touted 6-10 Eric Boateng who went to Arizona State from Duke. Boateng averaged less than 8 minutes and two points a game this past season.
We’ve already had some major coaching changes, the most notable being the hiring of Memphis’s John Calipari to fill the departure of Billy Gillespie at Kentucky. Mark Gottfried at Alabama finally used up his nine lives while Tony Bennett departs Washington State bringing his Princeton-style offense to Virginia. Mark Fox travels from the University of Nevada to replace Dennis Felton at Georgia. If any other larger schools have job openings, expect to see Creighton’s Dana Altman or New Mexico’s Steve Alford names tossed around.
The pressure for getting the top recruits increased the day the NBA said they required draftees to be one year removed from high school and must have their 19th birthday, or later, in the year of the draft. This rule, in theory, was going to help prevent any more Korleone Youngs, the 1998 poster child of the ill fate that can happen to a high-schooler who shouldn’t go pro early.
However, except for Brandon Jennings who opted for playing overseas in his first year out of high school, we still are seeing a number of “one-and-done” college freshmen. With the continued improvement in early development of players, these one-year players can be program-changers. They can also have a negative effect on a program that can’t reload quickly with capable replacements.
Underclassmen have until April 26 to declare themselves eligible for the draft. Provided they don't sign with an agent, they then have until June 15 to withdraw their names. Some on this year’s list who have already declared are no surprise. Naturally, there will be some “Korleone Youngs” who jump ship too early.
Wake Forest could be the hardest hit school for early professional departures with So. 6-8 James Johnson and Fr. Al-Farouq Aminu most likely leaving and So. PG Jeff Teague also a candidate. Georgetown’s disappointing season could continue into the off-season with 6-8 DaJuan Summers already signing with an agent and 6-10 Fr. Greg Monroe likely to leave.
Both Arizona schools will take a step backwards next year with the Wildcats watching Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger go pro early and possibly even point guard Nic Wise. The Sun Devils will say goodbye to So. James Harden.
Rebuilding next year will be Utah and UAB who both lose four seniors. Both teams had very little depth so the cupboard is fairly bare for returning players. Utah has a very good recruiting class lined up but UAB recently lost a top 5 recruit to Memphis, DeMarcus Cousins. Teams rebuilding with young players should be watched for potential play-on status once conference action gets started and the newbies are learning to play as a team. Early failures can give value later in the season.
With Calipari packing up the U-Haul, recruit Cousins might venture back to the Mike Davis UAB fold or very well could follow Calipari to UK. Currently, this is one of college hoops biggest unsolved mysteries. Who can Calipari bring to UK and who will go elsewhere. Outgoing Kentucky coach Gillespie had signed a fine Wildcat recruiting class including top-flight center Daniel Orton. As of the writing of this article, most everything was up in the air on what would happen.
As judged by one recruiting service, the #1 prospect John Wall, was tempted with Memphis but looks like he is headed to Duke. Lance Stephenson, a top ten recruit, appeared to be signing with Kansas on March 31 but with the Calipari news, he has delayed his announcement. While Stephenson liked Memphis originally, he appeared to be going elsewhere because another top ten shooting guard recruit, Xavier Henry, had already inked with Calipari at MU. With Calipari leaving Elvis’ hometown, it appears so is Henry as he is possibly signing with Kansas, the alma mater of his father, former Jayhawk standout Carl Henry. Another part of the story is he would like to bring his older brother with him, C.J., who was a walk-on at Memphis last year.
This is becoming better than a soap opera. It appears some recruit’s decisions will be predicated upon who is named the new coach at Memphis. Former NBA coaches Reggie Theus and Avery Johnson are at the top of the list.
Currently, Kansas has the #7 rated incoming class and would get a huge boost if either top 10 recruit, Henry or Stephenson, commits to Kansas. If Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins don’t leave early for the NBA, Kansas should be ranked in the top 3 in preseason polls.
Definitely battling for Big 12 supremacy next year will be Texas. The Longhorns lose undersized shooting guard A.J. Abrams but he will be quickly forgotten when 6-3 Avery Bradley arrives in Austin. Bradley was the MVP for the USA Today’s #1 ranked Findlay Prep team of Henderson, NV, who won the inaugural National High School Invitational Sunday. The Horns have the #3 rated recruiting class and will be a top ten team next season. They could move closer to #1 if big man Dexter Pittman continues his improvement in skills and conditioning and Damion James progresses as much next year as he did this year.
Marquette loses three senior starters but has a strong five-man recruiting class. North Carolina has snagged four McDonald’s All-Americans for their upcoming season, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Duke have two each. Nova also has inked 6-9 Mouphtaou Yarou, a surprise non-participant in the Mickey D Classic. The Wildcats’ two McDonald’s participants, both guards, were very impressive and will keep the flame burning in Philly. Duke’s players will bring some needed size to the Blue Devils.
The MVP of the McDonald’s Classic, 6-9 Derrick Favors, will remind Georgia Tech fans of Amare Stoudemire. The Yellow Jackets have a top five class with 5 quality recruits signed that should breath life into what was a stagnant offense this past season.
Tom Crean will have Indiana pointed in the right direction next year with a top ten class. UConn might be facing some stiff NCAA penalties as well as losing 3 seniors and in all probability, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet. With the comments that Connecticut Coach Jim Calhoun is making, you won’t see him on the sidelines next year but in the ESPN studio giving commentary. (after all, he doesn’t live far from their studios)
Cross-town rivals UCLA and USC both have top ten incoming classes. The Bruins lose much more through graduation, though. Pitt loses three senior starters including Sam Young and Levance Fields and probably will see DeJuan Blair opt for the NBA. Not inking an overly strong recruiting class does not bode well for the Panthers next year.
How about a team on the rise that is totally unexpected: Oregon State. Coach Craig Robinson, the President’s brother-in-law, landed two four-star guards and has two Australian frontcourt studs coming in. The surprise of post-season play is also the surprise of the recruiting season.
Do your research now and start uncovering the surprises for the 2009-10 season.
Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority knows everything basketball and much more.
In what many are calling the greatest NCAA Tournament ever, at the very least to this point, the East Region has been a sea of tranquility, at least in part. Top seeds Kentucky and West Virginia are the only No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make to the Elite Eight field from the same region and these two squads are combined 6-0 SU and ATS to this juncture. For those who would run over Cinderella’s glass slipper and discard her to the side of the road, this is the right matchup.
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