Step up to the dish and swing away on Thursday

With Tuesday’s plays, we stand at 85-46. Because of so many early games I couldn’t post this sooner, but we still have three solid systems to look at tonight on the diamond. The early and late Top Trends are both perfect, however we will count only the latter one for record keeping. You know who is to win the Dodgers vs. Angels battle, I think I do with Free Play. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – I had the Yankees on the run line last night and though they won 6-5 in extra innings (I’m 4-13 past nine innings this season- OMG), I did not. Here is the stupid part. The D-Backs handed out THIRTEEN WALKS (previous MLB high this season was 11), New York had 10 hits and they still only scored six runs.

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Free Baseball System -1) See the MLB systems below

Free Baseball Trend -2) Didn’t get to post on time, but Tampa Bay is now 20-0 in home games after scoring four runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons. Instead for this evening, consider the Mets who are 8-0 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs a game in 2010.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Our Free picks haven’t been up to usual standards of late, thus I’ll take a trip to the dish with the Halos to sweep the Dodgers.

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Baseball Systems that are a home run

It’s the first full week of May baseball action and on this Tuesday a number of high quality baseball systems standout. A number of underdogs are really up against solid situations that in the past have been very profitable by playing against them. Will this happen again, read on and make your own decisions.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05E

The Orioles swept Boston over the weekend, but reality came calling in the form of Yankee pinstripes, ending Baltimore’s brief euphoria. The O’s are 10th in the American League in batting at .246 and they will face A.J. Burnett (3-0, 2.43 ERA) as +220 money line underdogs. Here we find road underdogs of +150 or more, batting .260 or less against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) , with a starting hurler that gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start are unbecoming 18-84 since 1997.

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati 7:10E

The Mets have lost three in a row after their eight game winning streak was snapped and are +130 road dogs in the Queen City. Other than last night, the starting pitchers have been roughed up forcing a top notch New York bullpen (2.60 ERA) to start piling up the innings. Surprisingly, underdogs with ML of +100 to +150, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, having worked three straight games throwing four or more innings, are 30-9.

L.A. Angels at Boston 7:10E

The Angels of Anaheim are having serious pitching problems. Among their 15 losses on the year, nine have been by four runs or more, including last night’s 17-8 pasting to the Red Sox, their fourth consecutive road loss. The Halos are +175 dogs and non-favorites being outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season after allowing 15 runs or more are alarming 7-39.

Detroit at Minnesota 8:10E

Joe Mauer might be out of the line-up, yet Minnesota keeps punching the ball around the yard and is second in the AL in batting average (.279) and third in runs scored at 5.4 per contest. In game two of their series with division rival Detroit, the Twins are -135 favorites and home chalk of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games in May, are sharp 43-10 since 2006.

Colorado at San Diego 10:05E

The Rockies got a much needed win last night in San Diego. Colorado’s pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Though the bullpen has a fine 2.48 ERA, they are three of six in save opportunities.

Colorado acquired Greg Smith to be a left-handed starter and thus far his results are atrocious with 7.33 ERA. The Rockies have lost Smith’s last three outings since he has performed even worse with 9.53 ERA and bloated WHIP of 2.471.

Colorado might be catching +135 on the ML, however road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, using a nasty starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts are 7-33, 17.5 percent the previous five seasons.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

In Search of Winning Thursday

After 16 weeks of providing 60 percent or higher plays, we have hit the wall this week. As I said before, we’ll brag a little when we are doing well and face up to the fact when we are not. We’ve had five lousy days in a row and believe we have the right tonic in today’s Free Play and Top Trend. We want the Top System to be a winner; it just won’t count in our record since it is below 80 percent. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- While Henry Aaron is one of the all-time great players; he’s on occasion voiced opinions that were questionable. He recently said all 104 players names should be released on 2003 MLB drug testing. I agree, but he’s also asked about having asterisk by their names in the record books. That is incorrect since what those players did was not against the rules of baseball. I agree it was against the integrity of the game, but it wasn’t against the rules.

Aaron has also said Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame. In this case Rose did break the rules and has been punished. Why would Aaron want a convicted (loose term I understand) liar allowed to receive the game’s greatest honor yet chastise others for what wasn’t illegal? This type of logic would be like every person who was pulled aside for potential drunken driving and blew 0.9 when the law was 1.0 and deciding to re-ticket them now since the new rule is 0.8. Thanks for the memories Hank, but you are wrong on these points. (Your opinions welcome)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY OVER on teams like Oakland teams when the total is 9 to 9.5, off two straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog and have 38 to 46 win percentage on the on the season. This non-qualifying system is 33-10, 76.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Though Texas is very popular wager today; the Rangers are 1-10 in road games with double revenge against opponent this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Jason of the LCC had been having ordinary MLB season by his standards, but has gotten as hot as the August weather and like the Yankees on the run line.

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New York Yankees revenge-minded favorites

The New York Yankees hold down first place in the American League East, however that will be only one the things they will have on their minds as Boston comes to town for consequential four-game series. New York is 0 for 2009 against the Red Sox, having lost eight games to them and they fully realized many more losses could cost them coveted division crown.

With the Yankees having been outscored 55-31 by the BoSox this season, manager Joe Girardi framed succinctly what these games mean. “You want to get that zero, that goose egg out of there,” Girardi said. “We’re going to be asked about that goose egg as long as it’s there, so you want to get that out of the way as soon as possible.”

After playing sloppy baseball the first three games in Chicago, New York won the last contest against the White Sox and swept Toronto 2-0, including taking down Yankee-killer Roy Halladay. This has to give Girardi’s club a mental boost and they are 14-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season.

Boston (62-44, +3 units) limps into the Big Apple, after losing two to Tampa Bay, falling further behind the Bronx Bombers and letting the Rays narrow the gap for wild card to three games. The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent all season on the road, scoring 4.8 runs per game, but tending to do it bunches. This accounts for 27-27 record and they are only 18-29 playing against a team with win percentage of 54-to-62 percent in the second half of the season since last year.

Boston will be at another disadvantage, as pickup John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12 ERA) has been totally ineffective. In his last three starts, Smoltz has ERA of 9.18 and has been tagged for six home runs, not exactly recipe for success at long ball-friendly Yankee Stadium. Though the former Atlanta hurler didn’t walk a batter, he is 1-8 after allowing no free passes over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yanks Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) by contrast has been amazingly effective. He’s come up with several big performances when New York has needed them and in last three starts, he has 0.83 ERA over 21 innings, surrendering just eight hits, posting three wins. Chamberlain and his pin-striped teammates are 14-3 in his last 17 starts in the Bronx.

Sports bettors are pounding the money line at Bookmaker.com on New York, now up to -200 after opening at -170, with the total relatively stable at Un10. The Red Sox should have confidence based on this year’s results and are 22-7 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season. New York returns home feeling much the same way on three game winning streak. The Yankees are 20-6 off a victory and have won 27 of last 37 encounters. They have had their way with right-hand starters with sensational 17-4 record.

First pitch is set for 7:05 Eastern and though public perception is these rivals always play high-scoring games, they are 9-9 against the total playing in New York.

Planning on Winning Sunday at 3Daily Winners

Had a misstep yesterday with 1-2 mark and want to close the week on winning note. To do so have 85 percent system taking place in the Bay Area. Today’s Top Trend involves bad baseball teams, which is worse, keep reading. I’ll throw out my two cents (I actually will wager more) on Free Play. Good Luck

Thought of the day – While most people don’t believe the New York Yankees could lose four in a row to Chicago, don’t count me among them. The Yankees are playing very sloppy baseball, both physically and mentally and though C.C. Money Bags has good history against the White Sox, his recent starts have teams batting .317 against him. Mark Buehrle has poor history against Yanks, but you won’t see me betting against him on a Sunday at the Cell.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The pitcher is Cole Hamels, which means San Francisco could be hurting for system that is 51-9, 85 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’m as hot as anyone right now with 21 winners in 28 games (not bragging just factual) and I like Toronto to toast Oakland.

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Seeking Tuesday Triumphs

Wasn’t that something about King Felix getting crowned to keep Seattle’s negative streak alive? We bounce right back off losing day with three winners, just like the blog says. Only one top notch system and it involves two AL East squads. Throwing out two Top Trends that are combined 22-0. The Free Plays continue to percolate and Mark has a parlay on tap. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Aerosmith can still rock with the best of them. Steven Tyler doesn’t run around like he used to, but still a very good frontman. Joe Perry has more active role these days, maybe because of Guitar Hero or possibility to take a little pressure off Tyler. ZZ Top was good and they showed popular MTV videos from the 80’s when they played the songs. My daughter knew most of the songs and enjoyed it, having heard them growing up.

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Free Baseball System-1) The only qualify system today suggests to PLAY ON home favorites like Boston with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Over the last dozen years, this system checks in 83-17, 83 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Going to step out a bit and provide two trends on teams off losses. The L.A. Dodgers are 10-0 this season off a pair of defeats and Tampa Bay is 12-0 in home games after allowing nine runs or more.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark moved up to 8-2, with his top play cashing yesterday. Tonight he has a Yankees and Red Sox money line parlay.

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Time for Rays to Roll

You will have to forgive the Tampa Bay Rays for possibly not giving their best performance on Sunday, losing 5-1 to Toronto. Tampa Bay still won the series north of the border and completed one of the better road trips of the year with 6-4 record. While it’s true, every game will count the same no matter when it’s played over a 162-game schedule, some games and series have more meaning then others, which would be the case starting Monday night for the Rays.

Manager Joe Madden’s club is 54-45 (+1.3 units) and trails the first place New York Yankees by 6.5 games in the AL East. In order for Tampa Bay to start closing the gap, they have to do no worse than win two out of three encounters in opening up big nine-game homestand.

“This is a crucial homestand,” Pat Burrell said. “I think it will dictate a lot, especially with the (July 31 trade) deadline coming up. If we have a real good homestand, I mean real good; we’re going to be in a good place.”

The Rays will try to build on recent success they have enjoyed at Tropicana Field, where they have won 20 of last 25. Tampa Bay knows the Bronx Bombers have explosive offensive, which they have managed to turnaround to their favor with 22-6 mark at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better.

James Shields (6-6, 3.70 ERA) will be given the assignment of containing New York and he’s had more than his share of problems. Shields’ hasn’t won a game since June 20 and his ERA is 5.89 in his last three starts. Fortunately, he loves pitching at The Trop and is 4-2 there this season and with the Rays off a loss, Shields and mates are 8-2 on home turf.

The Yankees (60-38, +1.2 units) leave home having won 10 of 11 and open an important road trip in West Florida. Besides facing Tampa Bay, New York will have four in the Windy City with the White Sox and head to Toronto for two tilts before returning home to take on the challenge of Boston.

The Yankees haven’t always been dominant during this streak, but they found ways to win. Joe Girardi’s veteran club is 12-2 in last 14 contests against right-hander hurlers and has conquered teams with winning records to the tune of 15-5. A.J. Burnett (9-4, 3.74) has settled into the role the New York front office had in mind when they doled out $82.5 million contract to him. Over his last six starts, Burnett has been dominating, sporting 5-1 record and 1.82 ERA.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money line road favorites, with total Un9. The Yanks have won 12 of 14 when Burnett is wearing the favorite cap and they are 41-17 as chalk. New York is 6-0 UNDER in Burnett’s last six starts. Though Shields is effective pitcher at home, Yankees hitters have brought out the worst in him with 1-6 record, 5.73 ERA in eight career starts. He’ll seek previous magic which has allowed the Rays to win 27 of his 35 home starts, including four of five as underdog. Since leaving the name Devil Rays behind, Tampa Bay is 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 of this weighty series is set to commence at 7:08 Eastern and can be viewed on YES and Fox Sports Florida, along with MLB.TV. Burnett is 8-4 versus the Rays in his career and New York is 12-9 the last few years as visitor where Big Stein resides.

Thursday July 23 Betting Buzz

A clean sweep yesterday raised our record to 158-100-3, a super 61.2 percent. Have a ridiculous system today this 54-4, yea, that’s right. The Top Trend is a keeper at 12-0 and Sal has hopefully another Free Winner. Good Luck.

Thoughts on Today – There is a number of big favorites today. It is often tempting to parlay a group like this (I have in the past), however something tells me one is going down. I wish I could identify which one.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +175 to +250, with a team batting average .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with sizzling starting pitcher, who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Good gravy, this system is 54-4, 93.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 12-0 in home games after allowing four runs or less four straight games over the last two seasons, winning by and average of 4.2 runs per game in next contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 2-2 yesterday, which included his winner here. That makes him 20-5 in baseball of late. I had conference call I had to take, so missed his White Sox play, but I checked and he says he likes the Phillies on the run line equally as well.

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Do these Big Underdogs have a shot?

The Tuesday offerings on the Major League schedule have four games with four significant underdogs. The reasons are varied as to why, but what sports bettors want to know is if these pooches have to chance to pull the upset, leading to a significant payday. Here is a breakdown of each large underdog’s chances.

Baltimore at New York

The Orioles are trying to rebuild again, this time going thru the draft and using their young players. Unfortunately, this to will take time and in the mean while, Baltimore (41-51, -7 units) fans are once asked to be patient. The Orioles lost a close 2-1 game last night against the Yankees, however doing pretty well only counts if you are an AIG employee, which entitles you to bonus no matter what. Baltimore is 2-23 on the road versus AL East opponents and after surrendering only four runs in last two games, the O’s are 4-17 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive contests over the last two seasons. Bookmaker.com has Baltimore as +165 money line road underdogs with Rich Hill (3-2, 7.22 ERA) facing the Yankees. How little do the oddmakers think of Baltimore, New York is starting Sergio Mitre, who last started a big league game in Sept. 2007. The Orioles chances are not so hot with 11-39 record as dogs of +150 or higher.

Boston at Texas

The Red Sox (55-37, +6.9) have lost three in a row to fall into a first place tie with the Yankees and baseball bettors like their chances of ending streak even more than oddsmakers. Texas (50-41, +10.4), who defeated Boston 6-3 last evening, opened as +135 home underdogs were swiftly taken to +155, presumably with believers seeing a real pitching mismatch. Josh Beckett (11-3, 3.35) is BoSox hurler and he’s 9-1 with 2.14 ERA in last 13 outings. Beckett and the Red Sox are 21-4 as a road favorite of -125 or more since last season and they will face Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter (1-1, 2.35). The 23-year Hunter looks more like a standup outside linebacker than a pitcher, throws a low 90’s sinker, though like most young pitchers has control issues. Give Texas a punchers chance since they are 11-4 as home dogs and Boston has scored three runs against the last five rookie starting pitchers they have seen this season.

San Francisco at Atlanta

San Francisco (50-42, +9.1) has not been an offensive juggernaut to begin with; ranking 27th in runs scored at 4.1. Lately, the Giants have not done much to improve that position, scoring 14 total runs in last six contests, causing them to lose four times. Chances are it won’t get a whole easier, since they are +185 underdogs facing Atlanta’s Derek Lowe (8-7, 4.40). San Francisco faced Lowe plenty of times when he was with the Dodgers and they haven’t scored on him in last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants will send rookie Ryan Sadowski (2-1, 1.00) up the hill and he’s shown good poise according to manager Bruce Boche. Trouble is San Fran is 8-19 as road underdog of +150 to +200. Atlanta (47-46, -6.3) has been hitting the ball, but is 8-19 after scoring seven runs or more two straight games. If the Giants can score early to build confidence and Sadowski finds early rhythm, San Francisco’s is bullpen capable of containing the Braves for upset.

Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers

The Reds (44-48, -1.3) have lost nine of 13 to fall into fifth place in the NL Central. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has sprung a leak except for Bronson Arroyo, conceding 78 runs in last nine losses. They don’t figure to improve with Homer Bailey (1-1, 6.43) pitching against the Dodgers (59-34, +18.6). Bailey is a former first round draft choice of the Reds. The Reds are losing patience with the 23-year, who is known as much for his silly stubbornness as his ability. Bailey and the Reds are 1-12 in games he has started the last two years. Cincy is a +175 road dog and would appear in a horrible situation with the Dodgers 31-12 as +110 or higher home favorites.

Baseball Betting in the Second Half

With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played, a lot!

Playing Favorites is more costly

Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.

My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.

Find bad teams playing well

It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.

Ride Streaks Good and Bad

Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter

As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.

Follow home/road records

By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.

September can be scary

For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.

Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.

Looking back at Preseason MLB Futures Wagers

Back in March, one of my assignments was to go cover the strengths and weakness of each Major League Baseball team and make a prediction on how each club would likely measure up against the season totals set by the oddsmakers. With the baseball season roughly 54 percent completed, thought I would look back and see how I preformed four months ago and how I might end up when the final results are officially in.

National League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Philadelphia (Un88 – projected 90 wins)

The Phillies finally started to play well at Citizens Bank Park and are up to 22-23 record, having won nine of last 10. If the bullpen continues to improve and National League’s best offense keeps firing, playing in mediocre division, Philly should comfortably surpass 88 wins.

Florida (Ov75 – projected 83 wins)

Though the Marlins are -12 in runs scored/runs allowed, their starting pitching is expected to continue to improve, making me look I made the right choice.

Atlanta (84.5 No Call – projected 79 wins)

All the numbers prove this is .500 club and nothing really shows Atlanta should be any different the rest of the way. Might have overestimated the Braves slightly.

N.Y. York Mets (Ov89 – projected 78 wins)

Injuries to several starters have made the Mets a pedestrian offensive club. Beyond Johan Santana, unreliable starters pitch in rotation and bullpen allows too many keys hits. New York seldom rises to the occasion, as 16-25 record acknowledges as an underdog. Missed badly.

Washington (Un72.5 – projected 48 wins)

Firing the manager doesn’t change the players. The Nationals have too many young starting pitchers, deplorable bullpen and not enough every day players that care, all leading to another Washington failure. About as easy as it gets on this call.

St. Louis (Ov83.5 – projected 87 wins)

Called for the Cardinals to compete for division crown and they have been the best team in the NL Central thus far. They are on schedule to go Over the number and if Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick find batting stroke, St. Louis should win 90 games.

Milwaukee (Ov81.5 – projected 83 wins)

I thought the Brewers were barely above .500 club and they have proven me correct thus far. Milwaukee lacks enough starting pitchers that could send the team on seven or eight game winning streak or play well over extended period, taking 15 of 20 contests for example. For the most part, the Crew wins when favored (28-19) and lose when expected (17-24 as underdogs).

Chicago Cubs (Ov92.5 – projected 81 wins)

As correct as I was about Washington, like everyone, missed the Cubs by a magnificent Michigan Mile. Offense has been horrendous, ranking 14th in the National League in run production at 4.1 per game. Inconsistent starting pitching and injuries, means the Chicago would have to go 50-26 the rest of the way to surpass total. In the words of Al Borland, “I don’t think so Tim.”

Houston (O73.5 – projected 81 wins)

Despite having more retreads in starting staff than a used car lot, the Astros have overachieved thus far. Nonetheless, staring at -30 in RS/RA means this isn’t put to bed yet.

Cincinnati (78.5 No call– projected 78 wins)

Cincinnati has played as presumed and if anything could go Under in the second half. Only two NL teams have worse RS/RA allowed figures.

Pittsburgh (Ov69 – projected 70 wins)

Thought the Pirates might climb to 71 or 72 wins and gave them waffling approval months ago. Unless they remain snake-bit in one run games (5-14), could have a winner here.

L.A. Dodgers (Ov85 – projected 103 wins)

The Dodgers figured to be better than last season, but on pace to win over 100 games, nobody saw that coming. The ability to dominate division foes (30-12) makes this easy winner.

San Francisco (Un79.5 – projected 90 wins)

The Giants pitching was to be their calling card in 2009 and has it ever. The wild card leader at the moment, San Francisco is first in fewest runs allowed (3.7) and strikeouts (7.9 PG) and second in hits allowed (7.9 PG) and batting average (.239). Still weary of offense holding up in late August and September, yet have to say I blew this one.

Colorado (Ov76.5 – projected 86 wins)

The Rockies are making me look smart, in their now typical fashion, closing 28-9 before the All-Star break. One aspect nobody counted on was Jason Marquis leading the senior circuit with 11 wins at this point.

Arizona (86 No call – projected 69 wins)

Though I had no real thoughts on the Diamondbacks, misjudged how badly this team can play. This club lacks focus and true determination. Playing better the rest of the way would not be a shocker, however the only way they get 86 wins is taking whole squad to Arizona Fall Instructional League and pick up wins there.

San Diego (Un71 – projected 66 wins)

Never wavered in my belief that San Diego is the least talented team in baseball, even after 9-3 start. The Padres are proving to be what they are, awful.

American League (My pick and future record based on current form)

Boston (Un94.5 – projected 99 wins)

The Red Sox are putting together another superb season, with first-class offense, good starting pitching and a deep and varied bullpen with lots of answers. Thought this would be really solid team, but not at this pace.

N.Y. Yankees (Ov94.5 – projected 93 wins)

New York bumbled early and have bounced back to play superior baseball, if you disregard another lost trip in Anaheim. Expect this total to come down to last few days of the season.

Tampa Bay (Un88.5 – projected 87 wins)

Really believed the Rays would to come back to earth after unforeseen 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay is in wild card contention at the minimum, how they finish on the road (18-26 presently) will go a long way in determining final results. They will not have the benefit of playing the NL East any longer, whom they were 12-3 against.

Toronto (Un72 – projected 79 wins)

Though this prediction appears to be a loser, if Roy Halladay is traded soon, have to think this still could be good, with 35 of the Blue Jays remaining 62 games against Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Baltimore (Un78.5 – projected 73 wins)

The Orioles do have some positives, with young talent starting to emerge in spots. Nevertheless, too challenging a division has the Birds falling short.

Detroit (Ov81.5 – projected 89 wins)

Detroit made too many wise decisions in the off-season not to be better than last year. With improved defense, a potent batting order and better than presumed bullpen, this is the team to beat in AL Central.

Chic. White Sox (Ov77.5 – projected 83 wins)

The peripheral numbers suggest nothing more than a .500 team and have to agree. This is still accurate enough to project a correct prognostication for the White Sox.

Minnesota (Ov83.5 – projected 82 wins)

You never count Minnesota out until they are dead. Manager Ron Gardenhire is one of the best and the Twins +29 in runs RS/RA suggests they could well compete with Detroit (+32) down the stretch and go Over the total.

Kansas City (Un76.5 – projected 68 wins)

The Royals higher expectations have met resistance, as sorry offense that is 29th in runs scored, wastes too many good outings by starting pitchers, who feel compelled to be almost perfect to win.

Cleveland (Ov85.5 – projected 64 wins)

Having seen Cleveland a few times in spring training, I really believed the Indians had enough offense to overcome below average staff. Could not have been more wrong than Washington (past and present), believing stimulus packages are solution to fixing economy.

L.A. Angels (Ov88.5 – projected 92 wins)

Even with the preseason injuries, who would have thought journeyman Matt Palmer would have more wins as starting pitcher (7), than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar (5) combined and the Angels would be on pace to win 92 games at break. Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter have kept Los Angeles busy on the base paths with top hitting team and second in runs scored.

Texas (Ov74 – projected 89 wins)

The Rangers can still hit, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but it has been the pitching that has turned Texas into division and wild card contender. After years of having pathetic pitching, the Rangers are middle of the pack in runs surrendered at 4.6 per game, thanks to off-season regiment and organizational influence. Spotted preseason banter and jumped on board.

Seattle (Un73 – projected 85 wins)

Is it possible the Mariners are really fifth in runs given up? I can not see this holding up, especially with 25th ranked offense. Seattle is 21-13 in one run games, which has kept the Mariners afloat.

Oakland (Un82.5 – projected 70 wins)

“Moneyball” is about as relevant as the Stone Temple Pilots these days, with the Athletics having more “For Sale” signs than a neighborhood full of foreclosures.

Saturday Selections and Notice

As mentioned in the Free email I send out (signup on the right), the most members ever of the Left Coast Connection were on one team (Phillies), who were throttled last evening. Cole Hamels cost a lot of people money, fortunately not me. We ended up 2-1, giving us 119-79-3 record since April 11. Today we have top quality system that is 50-12 in a contest at Citi Field. The Top Trend is 100% perfect, will it stay that way? Slick Rick has been doing well, and takes look at the Brew Crew and Giants contest. Good Luck.

Special Notice – I’m on vacation starting today. Their will not be anything on this blog on Sunday and Wednesday for sure and I’ll do what I can to try and take care of Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, normal service returns on Thursday July 2. And yes I will have a good time.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -110 or higher, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. This arresting system is 50-12, 80.6 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Reds are 9-0 against the money line after a loss by six runs or more this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick is 8-3 the last four days and prefers Milwaukee to keeping laying it on San Francisco.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

MLB Series Wagering - Mets at Yankees

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees return to the Big Apple in the best of moods after suffering series’ losses in what has amounted to rivalry week for both teams. The Mets lost series to Philadelphia, giving them six losses in last nine contests. The Yankees were swept in Boston and are 0-8 against the Red Sox in 2009.

Though players typically try and down play the significance of these types of interleague games, the fact is this is New York and they can’t help being caught up in the maelstrom with rabid fans and media descending on them. Both scuffling clubs will bring positives into the Subway Series, as the Metropolitans (31-27, -0.3 units) are 23-8 in road games when playing on Friday since 2007 and the Yanks are 15-3 at home after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span.

Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88 ERA) has experienced a career renaissance this season, being picked up late by the Mets who needed a fifth starter. Pitching at Citi Field has helped the well-traveled veteran right-hander; however he’s performed above average on the road with 3-1 and serviceable 4.07 ERA. Hernandez has been downright awesome in his last three starts, with a 1.66 earned run average, which included complete game and seven shutout innings, thou both were against woeful Washington. He’s been moved up one day since John Maine was placed on DL Thursday, yet at least still had four days between starts. Hernandez is 18-10 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yankees (34-26, -2.8 units) counter with Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.39), who will not have to face dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes, who are both disabled. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but, losing five of last eight games and scoring 4.2 runs per game in the process. The Yanks are 18-11 in their new home and part of Chamberlain’s job will be to keep the ball in the yard. Balls have been flying over the fence at Coors Field pace. Chamberlain has been about average (which is good at the new Yankee Stadium), surrendering a total of seven homers in his 11 games pitched. New York and the big right-hander are 7-1 in last eight starts at Yankee Stadium.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the home-standing team in the pinstripes as -220 money line favorites with total Un10.5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in interleague play at 124-89 (.582) and are 45-17 as a favorite of -201 or greater. Watch the total on this one, since the Mets are 11-1 OVER on the road after three or more consecutive home games and the Yankees are 13-2 OVER at home after a one run loss.

Game 1 Edge: Yankees

The middle encounter will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair. At this time, the presumed fill-in starter for the Mets will be Fernanado Nieve, who pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season for the Mets after they called him up from Triple-A Buffalo on June 6. Nieve is a hard throwing righty, who has shown proclivity to hit a lot of bats in his major league stints. Most likely, manager Jerry Manual will have to go to bullpen, which has been an issue for the Yankees who are 2-9 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22) will go the Yankees, who’s not found the new ballpark to his liking. More balls fly out to right field and Pettitte’s ERA is 5.40 at home compared to 2.58 on the road. The Yanks are 29-13 when the veteran lefty is a Game 2 starter and they are 8-2 versus their city rival when he takes the hill.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

Amazingly, this won’t be the Sunday night game, probably because ESPN didn’t want to cut in on NBA Finals action. The series finale expects to be a good pitching matchup with Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39) battling A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89). Both pitchers are coming off less than impressive efforts, with Santana tying a career high in allowing four home runs, yet pitched well enough to pick up the win. Burnett was too amped or too strong, walking five and allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, in 7-0 loss at Boston. Day games have favored the Yankees who are 13-9 coming into the series, compared to the Mets 8-11 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

Despite having the best record in interleague action, the Yankees are 19-17 against the Mets since 2003. Don’t see this as being deterrent, as Joe Girardi’s club will want to put Boston series behind them. The key game will be the opener and don’t see New York losing. (OK, I’m doing anything to improve my record, make it the Yankees) With the Bombers favored big in the first two contests, backing both and keeping fingers crossed they deliver a series win.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Mets +200, Yankees -260

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 2-6

Bullpen matters to baseball bettors

Maybe it’s the SportsCenter syndrome, or too many highlights on Baseball Tonight, but it sure seems like their have been more blown saves this season then in the past. Talked to a number of people, from normal every day fans to serious baseball bettors and the answer was the same, they agreed, more blown saves in 2009 then in the past. This piqued my curiosity and had to find the correct answer. As it turns out, they are up slightly, however not as much as I and others believed.

This year, save conversions are running about 65 percent, which is actually up from last season’s total of 64 percent. From 2002 to 2007 the range was 66 to 68 percent. This is not earth-shattering news. Over the past seven seasons, the average number of save opportunities per team is just over 63 per year. The difference between the best and worst years is two blown saves per season, which does not automatically mean a team loses the game, as they often come back and win, like the Los Angeles Angels did Thursday afternoon in Toronto.

Where it matters to baseball bettors is the best and worst teams in the big leagues. The top five teams in saves are as follows. (Thru June 3, rounding up numbers)

1) Cincinnati - 93 percent
2) Texas – 85 percent
3) Boston – 83 percent
4) N.Y. Mets – 73 percent
5) Philadelphia – 73 percent

This group is not necessarily the best teams in baseball; nonetheless they have unique quality every one laying down money wants to see. Collectively, these teams are +29.8 units. When handicapping games, why this is important is if any of these teams have a favorable to somewhat favorable pitching matchup and they can enter the later innings with a lead, chances are they will close the deal with set-up man and closer.

Value is also to be found on the bottom end of the spectrum, playing against teams that have lamentable bullpens. In this case, if the starting pitching matchup is close to dead even and the teams are fairly equal in hitting numbers, the club with relief pitchers that struggle to hold opponents at bay, are intriguing plays. With these types of teams, a one or two run lead means it is slightly better then 50-50 they will hold the advantage and deliver a winning wager. Here is current bottom five teams in save percentage.

30) Washington - 38 percent
29) Houston – 52 percent
28) Toronto 53 percent
27) Cleveland 55 percent
26) Florida 55 percent

This grouping has lost 35.1 units in combining to blow 52 saves already this year. Though the Blue Jays are actually in the black for units won, they have given up leads, only to rebound and come back to win in last at bats.

While saving games is important, it helps to have depth and quality hurlers who have a great deal to offer. For example, the starting pitcher is cuffed around for five runs in four innings and is pulled. The particular team trails 5-1, but because of the long reliever and his cohorts shut down the opposition, sometimes they end up scoring enough runs and can sneak away with a victory, because the pen held the fort.

There are two units of measurement to identify the entire bullpen, earned run average and WHIP. (For those who forgot about how WHIP is formulated- Divide the number of hits and walks by the number of innings pitched)

The ERA is a fairly accurate method of looking at a bullpen, from a broader perspective. Generally speaking, most good teams will have lower ERA’s and most bad teams will have high ERA’s. Among the weakness of this statistic, it does not take into consideration the affects of ball parks (pitcher’s parks vs hitter’s parks). If a reliever allows the tying or winning run to score, the previous pitcher is held accountable, not the hurler that gave up the hit, which is why the stat “holds” was invented.

Here is the top and bottom teams in each league by ERA’s for bullpens.

National League
1) N.Y. Mets
2) Milwaukee
3) Cincinnati
4) St. Louis
5) L.A. Dodgers

12) Houston
13) Chic. Cubs
14) Arizona
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Boston
2) Chic. White Sox
3) Seattle
4) Tampa Bay
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) N.Y. Yankees
12) Cleveland
13) Baltimore
14) L.A. Angels

Nearly all the National League teams are in relative harmony with the teams’ records; this is not the case in the American League. Four of the top five teams in ERA bullpens in the junior circuit are average to mediocre clubs. Possibly the reasons for this is starting pitching is sordid or the offensive doesn’t generate enough runs, even if the pen does its job. In the bottom assemblage is first place teams the Yankees and Rangers. Both clubs have suffered blowouts that inflated numbers and play in what is today pitcher’s parks. While the jury is still out how good these bullpens will ultimately be, they have been masked in sorts by high scoring offenses.

This is where the WHIP comes into play to tie up the loose ends. The WHIP counts from first pitch by any reliever. Give up a hit or walk, it matters and here we can start to understand why certain ERA’s differ from the WHIP. The Yankees WHIP is 6th in the AL, more in line with how they are playing. The White Sox, they fall to 7th when using this as measuring stick, suggesting they are not quite as effective and the offense is lagging. The most notable differential is the Mariners, who have the 3rd best ERA, yet are next to last in WHIP in the AL. This shows their pitchers create problems for themselves. For the most part the Seattle relievers have avoided major disasters; however, over the course of 162-game season, chances are this will catch up with any team.

Here is how the WHIP’s shake out in each league.

National League
1) Milwaukee
2) St. Louis
3) Philadelphia
4) N.Y. Mets
5) Cincinnati

12) Chic. Cubs
13) Arizona
14) Pittsburgh
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Toronto
2) Boston
3) Tampa Bay
4) Minnesota
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) Baltimore
12) Kansas City
13) Seattle

14) L.A. Angels

Knowing what are the best and worst bullpens, from a complete perspective, will add real dollars to wagering account over the course of a long season.

Rangers in bad betting spot

Life has been pretty darn good for manager Ron Washington’s club in 2009. The Los Angeles Angels were everyone’s selection to runaway with the AL West crown, but Texas (30-21, +10.1 units) will have something to say about who is crowned champion this year. They rank fifth in runs scored in baseball and for the most part, their pitching has been decent enough to be in the middle of the road in runs allowed. Texas does have demons and in this battle of two first place teams in the American League, the Rangers are being lassoed by better team.

Texas has frequently had issues with the New York Yankees, dating back to 1998-99, when they lost consecutive postseason series to them. This year, the Bronx Bombers have won three of four and the losses by the Rangers have not been close. Texas has lost by 10, 7 and 9 runs, with the last figure coming last night. After Vincente Padilla was slapped around for seven runs in less than four innings of work, the bullpen came in and made matters worse with New York adding five more runs the rest of the way.

In contrast, two New York relievers pitched two innings and allowed no runs. Though the Yankees bullpen still have troublesome ERA of 5.03, this is far better than the one that was well over six before they helped contribute to skipper Joe Girardi’s club winning 16 of last 20.

New York (31-21, +1.5) is 21-3 in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games and Andy Pettitte (5-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) will try to continue to ease the strain on pen. The veteran left-hander has won last three decisions and the team has won the last five times Pettitte was the starter. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Yankees as -170 money line favorites with the total Ov10.5 and they will face a good pitcher in Scott Feldman (4-0, 3.91, 1.180), who is 4-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts after being used out of the bullpen for the first two weeks of the season.

Unfortunately for Feldman and Texas, the odds may be stacked against them with this super situation.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games.

The logic here is if a team is this large an underdog, they will likely have to go back to the bullpen again, which was just roughed up. Contrast that with the favorite, who has received a number of fine performances of late and we come across a system that delivers winners at the rate of 84.1 percent since 2004 at 58-11.

While there is no truth to the rumor General Motors, in an effort to conserve money wanted to use the new Yankee Stadium for wind-tunnel testing, at least one home run has been hit in all 24 games played there. Most have been hit to right field, but with the lefty Pettitte on the mound, that should curtail unsightly element.

The average margin of victory has been 2.5 runs and this system has been on turbo-charge, winning 30 of last 33. With New York 12-2 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season, this might be the right spot to go against the Rangers.

Trying for Terrific Tuesday

With yesterday’s 0-2 mark, our record of late is 84-56-3, 60 percent on the button. Today is a hard day to wager MLB in my opinion, with many large numbers and underdogs with obvious flaws. The Twins don’t have many flaws in today’s Top Trend. The Best system in is NL and Tim Lincecum will play a role. Paul Buck is back and offers Free Play. Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday -The Yankees played error-free baseball in their 5-2 win at Cleveland, extending their errorless streak to 18 games, a new major-league record. That the Yankees have posted a 14-4 record to move from third place to first during their errorless streak should not be viewed as a coincidence. Over the past two years, since June 1, 2007, they have posted a 131-60 record in games in which they haven't committed an error (.686), compared to a 60-73 mark in games with errors (.451).

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs (Washington) with a money line of +125 to +175, who score between 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a solid NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This sweet system brings home the bacon 81 percent of the time with 51-12 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 13-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-2 in last eight plays on the base paths and prefers the Dodgers this evening.

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Yankees favored in Cleveland Monday

The New York Yankees go for the series win in game number four against Cleveland, trying to maintain lead over Boston for first place in the American League East. New York came back from a four run deficit Sunday, thanks to Mark Teixeira’s four runs batted in. Teixeira now has a 13-game hitting streak, off a bad start and is hitting .400 (22 for 55) with eight homers and 20 RBIs during his streak.

However, a lead off walk by reliever Phil Coke ended up setting the table for Cleveland’s Jhonny Peralta, who drove in the winning run with his third hit of the day giving the Indians a 5-4 walk-off win.

The Yankees (29-21, -0.5 units) will turn to Joba Chamberlain (2-1, 3.97 ERA) looking for the series win, after winning first two contests. The young right-hander had another shaky start in his last outing Tuesday at Texas, allowing three runs over four innings with four walks. Chamberlain has ERA of 10.00 in the first inning this season in his nine starts. “Plain and simple, I was terrible,” he said. “I’ve got to do a better job of keeping the team in the game.”

New York has won the last six times they have played in Game 4 of a series and they have captured 14 of last 18 tilts during this run. With Chamberlain on the mound, the Yanks are 8-2 against teams with losing records and 13-4 when favored.

Cleveland (22-30, -8.8) will counter Jeremy Sowers (1-2, 7.71) who returns to the starting rotation. Sowers was dreadful with 0-2 record and 12.00 ERA, in two spot starts in May. He redeemed himself in part last Monday, tossing five scoreless innings in relief, in unfathomable 11-10 win against Tampa Bay. That was the left-hander’s first career stint out of the bullpen.

Sowers and the Tribe are 1-6 when he starts the game versus a team with winning record.
The early line from DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -160 money line favorites with the total Un10. The Bronx Bombers are 7-1 against lefty starters, with matching record on the road if total is between 9 and 10.5 runs. Cleveland, despite their troubles this campaign, is 10-4 as home underdogs, though 6-15 in that role if Sowers is pitcher.

The Yankees are 7-3-1 OVER when Chamberlain toes the rubber and the Indians are 20-7 OVER as underdogs. It should be noted, nine of last dozen at Progressive Field between these teams have gone UNDER.

This is ESPN contest, which starts at 7:05 Eastern and if you follow baseball on the days of the week, New York is 5-13 in last 18 Monday affairs and the Tribe are 11-4 on the first day of the work week.

MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Red Sox

Just the words -Yankees and Red Sox- bring a strong passion for every baseball fan. Oh sure, we all know ESPN and Fox are biased towards covering these teams, but why shouldn’t they be. In today’s world of fighting for every position and yielding no quarter, New York and Boston are like Coke and Pepsi competing for your attention. Think about it, what rivalry in sports is acted out in the national media 12 months a year? They compete strenuously during the regular season and on occasion in the playoffs. After one has potentially gained the slightest edge on the other, they compete for free agents and try to make newsworthy splash in trade to out-do one another. These two teams and organizations exemplify the very word, competition.

What also makes this rivalry great is how the teams approach each series. This weekend starts the first of 18 meetings between these AL East combatants and even though the score isn’t always close, a compelling tale emerges from each contest. Over the last seven regular seasons, New York leads 68-63 overall. The widest margin has been 11-8 in any given year, with 10-9 occurring three times and one split. Of course New York fans will tell anybody that will listen; their team has won five of last seven series.

All the players also know it’s just not another series and guys like Mark Teixeira will feel the wrath of Boston fans, after shunning Boston’s advances, to wear the pinstripes. Both teams start the weekend tied for second place in the division behind Toronto. The Red Sox are the hotter team having won seven in a row and they are 43-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs a game like New York who is sorting out bullpen and a few spots in the starting rotation. They will have Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50 ERA) take the ball first. The left-hander fired seven shutout innings in last outing after a pair of shaky performances to start the year. Boston is a -135 money line favorite at most sportsbooks, with total Un9.5. Lester and BoSox are 21-4 at Fenway Park the last three seasons.

Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06 ERA) has a pair of no-decisions, pitching well against Kansas City and was wild against Cleveland. Chamberlain has similar stuff to Lester, with mid-90s fastball and sharp slider and the Yanks are 9-4 when he starts for them.

Game 1 Edge: Red Sox

The second meeting will be a Fox afternoon affair, with a couple of old Florida teammates from 2003 World Series champion doing battle. The Yankees coming into the series had won three in a row and five of seven and trot out one of their high-priced acquisitions, A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20). After two crisp outings, Burnett was wild against Cleveland walking seven, however permitted just three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander hopes to benefit from Robinson Cano’s hot bat, which included 10-game hitting streak arriving in Bean-town. Burnett has enjoyed much success against Boston with 5-0 record and 2.56 ERA in eight career starts. Josh Beckett’s (2-1, 3.79) suspension moved him back one game. The Texas native has kept the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run and opponents are batting just .229 against his servings and he is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Both teams have performed well in Game 2 situations with New York 20-8 and Boston 17-8 when Beckett is starter.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

To complete the series, it’s something old and something new, as 37-year old Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53) faces 24-year Juston Masterson (1-0, 3.18). Pettitte has not only given the Yankees wins, but saved the bullpen in his three starts, going at least seven innings each time in 2009. The cagy lefty has spotted his two-seam fastball expertly and his cutter has been almost un-hittable. After starting in the bullpen, the 6’6 Masterson made adjustment to starter Monday, picking up first win with 5 1/3 effective innings. He’s been very sharp with control, ringing up 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his brief career, opposing batters are hitting measly .221 against Masterson, while Pettitte is 6-2 in 13 career starts at Fenway.

Game 3 Edge: Yankees

These rivals have split last 18 contests the last two years in Boston with OVER 12-6. If the games continue to be played Over the total, this should favor Boston who has 2.49 bullpen ERA, compared to New York’s unsightly 6.00. Yet, this is still the Yankees and Red Sox, which suggests anything is possible, thus I’ll side with underdog New York whom I believe has better pitching matchup in last two games to win the series.

Betjamaica.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees +125, Boston -155

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 1-1

Seeking Tuesday Betting Triumphs

Because of rain and not so hot information, we battled to have 1-0 Monday and moved to 16-10-1. The system will remain the same with slightly different twist to guess the year of the system started. Can you guess what year with yesterday’s and today’s clues? The Cavs and LeBron are featured in the Top Trend and Greg looks to build on hot streak with another Free winner. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Boston Celtics are in real trouble, made worse with Leon Powe done. Lefty Arthur Rhodes may be 100 and pitched for all 30 teams (modest exaggeration), but he can still get hitters out in the clutch.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by four runs or more. Somewhat similar to yesterday system in the regard the oddsmakers are leading us in certain direction despite contrarian information. This system is 92-20, 82.1 percent since Babyface and Eric Clapton won the Grammy for “Record of the Year” for - Change the World.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-1 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Greg from the Left Coast Connection is 14-3 over the last nine days in all wagers, including yesterday’s winner and believes Portland will blaze a trail over Houston.

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