Huge Spread Flip in GMAC Bowl

This almost was the fourth matchup of conference champions during the bowl season, but Tulsa and Ball State lost in the championship games. For each team, this is a redemption game, wanting to prove they were as good as they played during the regular year and finish on a positive note. This contest should help Ball State 12-1 (8-3-1 ATS), trying to win a bowl for the first time after four failures. The Cardinals have covered 23 of last 34 games. Tulsa (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS) limited East Carolina to just 278 yards, but the seven turnovers cost them the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane is just 2-9 ATS in road games after the first month of the season the last couple of years and will be seeking to improve on 6-9 and 4-2 ATS bowl record.

Why to Watch and Wager

There should be no shortage of points and oddsmakers are backing up that point with a total of 75. Ball State quarterback Nate Davis was the star of stars in the MAC this season, passing for 26 touchdowns and 3,446 yards, leading an offense that averaged 459.4 yards per game and among the best in the country in throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. Ball State is 7-2 ATS off a loss and 16-5 against the spread versus teams with winning records.

As good as the Ball State offense has been, they look like a mid-level D-2 team compared to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane was second in the country in total offense with 565 yards per game. This is not a one dimensional offense either, rushing for 254.8 yards per game, which compliments David Johnson pass attack that averaged 310.2 YPG in constant hurry-up mode. Tulsa has excellent wide receivers that were part of countless big plays with 10.2 yards gained per pass attempt.

The Golden Hurricane is just 3-8 ATS against teams with winning records, in part because their defense is ordinary, even by C-USA standards in allowing 29.1 points per game. Conversely, Ball State surrendered 18.6 PPG against teams with similar power ratings; however the Cardinals will be without their head coach of six seasons Brady Hoke, who moved west to San Diego State.

Bettors of the GMAC Bowl are ignoring the negatives about Tulsa and moved them 2.5-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com. Ball State 7-2 ATS as an underdog. GMAC favorites have won and covered last six encounters, with average margin of victory 30 points.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror Betting CFB

Seeing the latest craze in college football by some teams is to change the tempo of the offense and run more plays to keep the defense from changing players to fit situations, I’ll do the same thing this week.

Oklahoma State was expected to be better in 2008, but Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech were all presumed to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 South back in August. Thus far the Cowboys are the only team in college football not to suffer a spread loss at 7-0. You have to wonder if T. Boone Pickens is a betting man (sports’ betting that is), since if he bet his alma mater each game and had “let it ride”, he would be overcoming some of the big financial hits he has taken. It’s becoming more evident coach Mike Gundy can coach and recruit a little. Just asking- If you watched Oklahoma State and USC play on the road last week, whom do you think looked like the better team?

Tulsa is unbeaten and 6-1 ATS and had great second half in covering the spread against Central Florida. They have very good receivers and fascinating way of attacking both on offense and defense. Yet could not help but wonder if they wouldn’t be 6-10 point underdogs to Boise State and TCU on neutral fields, let alone against a top level BCS squad. Big test at Arkansas this week and at Houston on Nov.15.

Minnesota is 7-1 and 6-1 ATS and plays three of final four games at home. The Golden Gophers after a 1-11 campaign caught a scheduling break this season in avoiding Michigan State and Penn State. No doubt Minnesota is much improved, but here is a scary thought. If the Nittany Lions remain unbeaten and Texas or Alabama loses, and Ohio State slips up again, that could mean Minny goes to the Rose Bowl to face possibly face USC. A talented Illinois team was catching 13.5 last year, would the Gophers be on the receiving end of 20?

Though not official yet, Michigan will have 33-year bowl streak broken, still having to play three of last four on the road, including at Ohio State. At 2-6 and 1-7 ATS, the most disconcerting aspect of this Rich Rodriquez coached team is they have not gotten better. Though media-types have continued to say Rodriquez will win in Ann Arbor, watching him and his team on the sidelines is very uncomforting. This isn’t supposed to happen at Michigan. The last Michigan team not to go bowling was the 1974 squad who lost at Ohio State 12-10, ending their perfect 10-0 season, with far fewer bowls back in those days. This won’t have quite the same feel.

Fresno State was supposed to finally win the WAC, but once again the always bold talking Bulldogs are nothing special and causing backer’s lots of cash with 1-6 ATS record. Fresno State’s wins at Rutgers and UCLA are far less impressive today as is the narrow loss at home to Wisconsin. Losing at home to Hawaii is ridiculous and they could hardly have been any luckier in winning at Utah State 30-28 last Saturday as 15-point favorites. Coach Pat Hill has this tough guy persona, but how tough is it to bet against the 105th ranked run defense? Hill reminds me of a golfer who shoots one over par at the hardest course in town and is a 12-handicap at easiest course in the area. Of course all he talks about is his one great round.

Quick notes- What did I say about Pittsburgh last week, NEVER trust a Dave Wannstedt coached-team that is supposed to win.

Just a few of weeks ago it was fun to see the “smart” schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern doing so well. The Commodores looked like MSNBC poll showing Barack Obama leading the presidential race, with 5-0 record. Three losses later and confronted with Florida and Tennessee at home and at Kentucky and at Wake Forest, the first bowl possibility in 26 years is slipping again. Northwestern not only lost at insipid Indiana, they lost all everything running back Tyrell Sutton.

Florida State is not only 6-1 and 3-2 ATS, they are returning to physical, smarter football.

At the end of September, talked about what a mess the Big East was based on how down the league is this year, it made sense to look at road teams in conference game. Thus far road teams are 6-4 ATS with four outright wins. One aspect not considered was road favorites and they are 1-2 SU and ATS.

After a 5-8-1 start, college football teams off a three exact spread covers are 10-3 ATS the last three weeks. That would mean Arkansas, Florida, Iowa and Louisville are possible play on teams. The opposite would be true for those failing to cover in a trio of tilts. On the season this group is 9-18-1 ATS and Clemson, Iowa State and Kentucky all make this week’s play against watch list.