For most people, the title of this article I was asked to write makes no sense. And while I can appreciate the logic of those of you who think flipping a coin to guess “heads or tails” would be an equally worthy pursuit, cut me a little slack and at least play along. I hear all the complaints; it’s just an exhibition game! Whine, whine whine and I suppose you are going to sit there and act so high and mighty that you wouldn’t lower yourself to watching and betting on such contest, yet you are same person salivating in August for professional football and are willing to bet on a game involving two fourth string quarterbacks and bunch of other players that won’t even be on those teams’ rosters, but you are OK with that because it’s a preseason (exhibition) game?
Here are reasons to Bet and Watch the Pro Bowl.
1) How many reruns can you watch of Criminal Minds or NCIS in a weekend?
This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.
The Super Bowl players always hated to go to the game unless the wife, girlfriend or whomever wanted a vacation and some of the cool swag that comes with the trip. For many of the players they get a little extra cha-ching for playing and typically turn it over to their other half, to make them look like good guys. The Miami setting is still cool and the night life is even better. ESPN is going to handle this like a live NFL Films production, so the entertainment value at least has potential.
2) It’s betting on football and you can watch
The vast majority of football bettors, hell bettors in general like to watch what they bet on for some reason, like their anguished faces or smirking know it smiles will in some way determine the outcome. Think of it as an awards show, just without all the stars being able to attend. The NFC is favored by 2.5-points and for you those of you addicted to line movement, the total opened at 60.5 and has tumbled like President Obama’s approval rating to 57 points.
3) Check out players in laid back setting and see how those from your favorite team perform.
I’ve read more than one report that a lot of the Pro Bowl players aren’t very cool with moving the game up two weeks. Most of these young studs want to come to South Beach to hang out and party, not practice and play a meaningless game. One thing about these guys once they strap on the pads and start hitting each other, the competitive part of their personality surfaces and they want to win for each other, just because. Besides, since many guys will be around Miami all next week some extra good-natured barbs can be launched at one another based on the outcome or if something funny happened during the game. That is unless Gilbert Arenas shows up. During the game the players will be more relaxed and might offer something humorous.
4) Public service material about the Pro Bowl
My friend Steve Makinen from StatFox assembled a vast amount of Pro Bowl data for those that just want the information and even offers a prediction. (Clearly Steve has even less a life than yours truly)
Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.
Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.
The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.
Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare prediction of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.
5) Pro Bowl info and betting stuff
The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins and covers in the last two games. In fact, the NFC has covered the spread the last four matchups and is 7-5 ATS the last dozen years, with the teams splitting the end results. Looking back to 1997, dogs are 6-6 ATS with the Over 8-4. (Just the fact that I took the time to look that up makes me just as bad as Steve)
One needless bit of information has been stripped away with this year’s new date; whatever conference won the Super Bowl was 15-11 SU dating back to 1983.
If your life is boring and mundane to all your friends, reinforce their beliefs and watch the Pro Bowl. Better yet invite people you will be seeing next week for a Super Bowl party and tell them you are having a Pro Bowl shin-dig, they will think you are really nuts.
This article penned by Red Wydley.
Think about this for a minute; say you gave up drinking beer for a month. You are used to Guinness or some of the other heavier brews on the market. You dropped a few pounds and decided to treat yourself, but not go crazy and thought a Michelob Ultra is the way to ease back in. That accurately describes the NFL Hall of Fame Game, not overly satisfying after months of no football, but it beats the heck out of watching the World Cup.
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