Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Young Studs key in AFC East Battle

For the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, four games into the season look a little different than most anticipated. As they prepare for a division game on Monday, how these are where they are and the outcome of the game is not lost on the teams and fans alike.

New York (3-1 SU&ATS) drafted Mark Sanchez and believed he could help them right away, however very few outside the Jets locked room thought their first round pick would play this well this soon.

Yes, Sanchez did have a few rookie moments in loss to New Orleans last week, but that is to be expected and he has embraced his position in the Big Apple and has been an important cog in the wheel to New York’s fast start. The next step in Sanchez’s career development is how he bounces back from adversity, especially on the road, where the Jets are 6-0 ATS at Miami.

Coach Rex Ryan’s pressure tactics are paying dividends, with is club fourth in total defense at 277.7 yards per game and third in points allowed at 14.2. It’s of significance, Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding 285 or less yards per game.

The Dolphins (1-3 SU &ATS) off last year’s complete turnaround that produced an AFC East title, expected to keep moving in the same direction. However, three straight losses to start the season were more shocking than recent pictures of Kevin Federline. Though the Dolphins run for 183.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL) they still lack explosion on offense. Part of it is how they’ve been built with Chad Pennington as the quarterback, using the running game and controlled passing. That is out the window with the former Jets QB on the shelf again, and a stronger armed Chad Henne takes over, with less actual playing experience than his counterpart Sanchez.

All division games take on added importance and this one just became more so for both teams with New England being upset at Denver Sunday. A win gives the Jets back the lead in the AFC East and a Miami victory makes it two in a row and places them just one game behind the Pats and Flyboys.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York favored by 2.5 with total of 36. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in October off a SU and ATS loss and in revenge spot against opponent (Lost to Miami 24-17 in last meeting). The Jets are 17-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards. The Dolphins are 19-6 UNDER after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and could be in favorable situation with underdogs 8-1 ATS in Miami’s last nine pre-bye week games.

New York covers if they contain Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense. Coach Ryan has faced the Wildcat in the playoffs with Baltimore last year and attacked Brown up the middle and outside defenders stayed home to contain Brown. With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard, the Jets secondary should be able to handle ordinary Fins pass-catchers and stuff the box with run stoppers and blitz Henne like he’s seeing a green and white squadron. On offense, building an early lead is important, since that means Sanchez doesn’t have to do as much and run play action to attack Miami safeties that are much better against the run than the pass.

Miami covers if they control the line of scrimmage and maintain possession of the pigskin. Sanchez is a good rookie quarterback, but he’s not Peyton Manning. They Jets have given up 280 yards total on the ground the last two weeks, primarily outside the A and B gaps. Brown and Ricky Williams should test them. Henne has the arm to at least stretch the field beyond 10 yards, which could mean crossing patterns for solid route runners like Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to move the chains and get the secondary away from the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are second against the rush (61 YPG), which could force the New York to throw more than they prefer. Chances are Braylon Edwards will not be as much a factor this early.

Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road last week against a team that covered at home at the same time. (18-6 ATS)

WILD, WILD NFL

WildCat. WildHog. WildThing.

Call it anything you want, but some form of the WildWhatever offense has stampeded onto a playing field near you.

This latest NFL trend is confusing the defenses and entertaining the masses. The unorthodox offensive scheme, referred to by most as the WildCat offense or formation, is somewhat of a rarity to catch with only 10 to 15 of these plays being called in a given week.

I don't know the exact position terminology and it would probably get confusing so I'm just going to breakdown this formation with simplicity. A skill player such as a running back or wide receiver lines up in shotgun formation. A second skill player player is positioned to that player's right or left. Once the ball is snapped to the player directly behind center he has three options. Run the ball, hand the ball off to his teammate or throw the ball.

You may have seen a version of this offense in college football called the spread offense. The same principles are applied here except that the quarterback is taken out of the backfield. On some occasions the quarterback is positioned as a wideout and in others he's watching from the sidelines.

The primary advantage of utilizing this formation is that instead of playing with 10 offensive players versus 11 defensive players when the quarterback is on the field, the offense can operate on an even level with 11 on 11 in personnel terms. The element of surprise is also an edge as the defense has to be on its toes when this formation is presented.

The Miami Dolphins unleashed this ground-borne virus that is spreading throughout the league against New England in Week 3 of the season. They absolutely ran all over the Pats, combining backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to create 216 yards of offense and parlaying that success into a 38-13 victory. In Week 5 they made mincemeat of the San Diego Chargers, shredding them for 167 yards on 12 WildCat carries.

Bill Parcell's freshest Frankenstein is logging the most attempts of the Wildcat offense. Miami is averaging about five per game since its introduction and it has proved to be prolific - yielding eight of their 23 offensive touchdowns. And they are showing no signs of slowing down the game plan either. The 'Phins ran it on eight instances last week versus Seattle and six times in Sunday's defensive bout against Oakland.

Speaking of the Raiders, even with their porous offense they are able to get in on the fun and roll out the WildCat offense. After all, super-talented back Darren McFadden is no stranger to the atypical run game having executed a version of it when playing at Arkansas under head coach Houston Nutt. He and current Dallas Cowboys player Felix Jones used to make opposing defenses look clueless as they racked up hundreds of yards on the ground.

The Arkansas Razorbacks called it the WildHog in honor of their mascot. Nutt has since moved on to Ole Miss where they run a variation of the offense and have given it the moniker WildRebel.

The naming origins of this unique offensive explosion have been interesting to say the least. It is rumored that the Dolphins' labeling of the formation came from the Wildcats of West Genesee High School where Miami assistant coach Steve Bush once worked.

Last Monday against the 49ers Anquan Boldin became the first wide receiver to take a direct snap. Ken Wisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals call this the Pahokee formation which was Boldin's hometown and high school in Florida.

Tonight we may see the Cleveland Browns bust out the Flash formation with Josh Cribbs taking the ball from center like he did last Thursday against the Broncos. Cribbs' alma mater is the Kent State Golden Flashes.

While the WildCat offense has been very productive, there have to be some problems with it or every team would use it, right? Maybe the availability and reliability of a skill player who can handle a snap and read a defense quickly poses a hindrance for some teams.

Or in the case of a wide receiver taking the snap, maybe some teams don't want their franchise player getting blown up by guys like Ray Lewis. I realize that Anquan Boldin is a big, physical receiver but he is not invincible. And what about the quarterback being used downfield as a blocker? You can bet defenses will be licking their chops to take a shot.

But there is no doubt teams are taking notice and are doing some experimenting. I don't have the luxury of the Elias Sports Bureau at my fingertips to check the stats but from my count a total of nine teams (Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals, Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, 49ers) have run some form of the WildCat offense.

It seems that better defenses will prevail against it, but will some mastermind come up with a way to completely shut down the WildCat offense?

I sure hope not. I hope it sticks around forever. It makes the running game more exciting and improves the overall entertainment of the game.

Scott Cooley offers his perspective as freelance writer and friend of 3Daily Winners.