2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

Elite 8 Saturday

A good comeback effort on Friday with two winners and just one loss. For Saturday we have Top Trend in the West Regional that is near perfect. Our Best system just misses the 80 percent mark, but does yield two plays that could take it over the threshold. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- It never ceases to amaze me that in sports if you have a weakness, eventually it will be found by somebody. That was true last night of St. Mary’s, Ohio State and Northern Iowa.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinnersdailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Two teams actually fit this system that is 35-9 ATS, 79.5 percent. They are the Lakers and Jazz, with this system 7-1 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas State is 12-1 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 17-4 since Sunday and his play for today is Utah at -8.5 over Washington.

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Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional

Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are manageable distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, OH. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two.

Unusual Pairing

To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.

Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.

Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.

Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.

The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122 at DiamondSportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.

Buckeyes look to avoid being Orange Crush

Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16-2 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17-1 ATS).

The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.

Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.

Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.

Start your Sunday with these five matchups

By now your sleep pattern showed be seriously disrupted, waking yourself up screaming, “onions” from a Bill Raftery call or the occasional Dick Enberg “oh my” as the brain can’t properly rest with the constant rhythm of a basketball pounding the hardwood for hours on end. Additionally, in the other regions of the brain, you are going over why you bet a certain team or why you didn’t have the “onions” to take one you know you should have. Don’t despair, roughly one more eight hour segment to go before you can rest up, with five games coming in the early afternoon or late morning depending on your proximity.

Gonzaga vs. Syracuse 12:10E

The Orangemen answered one question; can they play without injured center Arinze Onuaku? The answer was yes, but Vermont doesn’t have anywhere near the talent level Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) has. Even if Onuaku could go, he’ll have limitations as to what he can do, which means Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins will have to carry the scoring load, with others like Scoop Jackson and Rick Jackson chipping in. Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS) is a 6.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is a 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.

The Bulldogs ended up drawing two phenomenal defensive teams in the early rounds of the West regional, but at least the ‘Cuse likes to get out and run, more to Gonzaga’s liking. The Zags were exquisite in the first half against Florida State, building a 16-point lead, however fell into the Seminoles trap of slow down and needed always reliable Matt Bouldin to bail them out. With the total listed at 150, Gonzaga can play their more free-flowing style, but to win have to solve Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone. Gonzaga is 26-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

1 vs. 8 seeds are 37-9 SU, winning by 9.3 points per game the last 25 years.

Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State 2:20E

As was documented yesterday, 10-seeds oft times present problems for No. 2 seeds, winning outright about 40 percent of the time. Georgia Tech (23-12, 16-12-1 ATS) was the sixth ACC team seeded 10th or worse since 1994 (out of seven), to pull off the upset in the first round. The Yellow Jackets have the athletes and inside power to make them a factor in any contest, however they must play at their own pace since they are 16-6 ATS when they attempt 54 to 62 shots. That means a large number of touches for Gani Lawal and freshman Derrick Favors.

Ohio State (28-7, 17-16-2 ATS) is more diverse offensively than Warren Buffet’s portfolio, making them a headache to defend. Everyone knows what Evan Turner can do, but when Jon Diebler hits seven of the purest three-pointers you have ever seen and defenses start leaning his way, that opens up William Buford and David Lighty to expand their games. The Buckeyes are a 6.5-point pick with total of 133.5 and they are 8-2 ATS playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 UNDER on a neutral court when the total is 130 to 139.5.

Michigan State vs. Maryland 2:30E

Round Two on Sunday resembles a Big Ten meet with four teams in action. The conference was believed to be improved this year and this is a swing game that will help determine if that belief was actually true. Michigan State (25-8, 12-20 ATS) got off a good start against New Mexico State, building a 13-point lead before seeing it all disappear to the more aggressive Aggies in the second half. The Spartans were overwhelmed by New Mexico State’s faster tempo and would have lost except for the Aggies impatience in late game shot selection and 13-22 mark from the free throw line. Coach Gary Williams more experienced team is unlikely to waste that opportunity if they reach that point and Michigan State is 5-15 ATS facing a club with a winning record this season.

Maryland’s (24-8, 17-10 ATS) win over Houston was workman-like, taking the Cougars best shots, while maintaining control. There's no question the Terrapins' success revolves around senior guard Greivis Vasquez, whose game has matured to the level of doing what it takes to win, instead of making sure his numbers are in order. Maryland will undoubtedly use full court or three quarter pressure on the Spartans earlier in the game to determine who they react. The Terps are 8-1 ATS in road conditions after playing consecutive games as a favorite and is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen outings.

Maryland is a one-point favorite; however four seeds are 11-23 ATS since 1998.

Missouri vs. West Virginia 2:40E

Can Missouri (23-10, 15-12 ATS) ring the bell as an upset winner? If they bring the same intensity they played with Friday in beating Clemson they just might. The Tigers 75-60 loss to Nebraska in first Big 12 tourney contest had coach Mike Anderson thinking October, not March. The very next practice was a return to basics, including all the conditioning drills the players hate, but they got the message. Against Clemson they had 15 steals and 20 forced turnovers, which led directly to 20 points in 86-78 triumph. “Our teams typically start playing some of their better basketball right around late February, March,’’ said coach Anderson. “I guess we really turned up the intensity…” The Tigers are 15-4 ATS versus ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers a contest.

West Virginia (28-6, 14-19 ATS) hit the snooze button to start against Morgan State down 10-0, but were alarmed into reality by the soothing tones of coach Bob Huggins and buried the Bears the rest of the first half 38-17 on the way to 27-point win. The Mountaineers will have to show patience on offense in attacking Missouri and take advantage of opportunities once they break the press. West Virginia can’t become flustered either when Mizzou goes on 6-0 or 8-2 runs, that just their style. The ‘Teers are six-point favorites and are 13-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Cornell vs. Wisconsin 2:50E

The Big Red of Cornell (28-4, 17-10 ATS) ended the Ivy’s league’s 12-year drought of empty NCAA trips with a resounding performance against A-10 champion Temple. "Everyone was saying we were Cinderella or it's an upset. Not us," sophomore Chris Wroblewski said Friday after his toppled Temple 78-65 as three-point underdogs. Cornell spent the first half pushing the ball inside and once the Owls were forced to sag lower, the nation’s top three point shooting team unleashed the hounds and total nine 3-pointers. The team from Ithaca, NY is 10-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.

Wisconsin (24-8, 17-13 ATS) played average at best in holding off Wofford 53-49, nevertheless the Badgers showed their most important trait when it mattered most, poise. Wisconsin lost every bit of their early 10-point second half lead, but played solid defense in the closing minutes and made big shots to emerge victorious. The Badgers are reliable three-point defensive team and they will need to deliver. Wisky is a 4.5-point favorite and 8-1 ATS if opposing squad has win percentage of 80 percent or better.

The tournament has shown that 4-seeds taking on 12-seeds in this round win by four points a game, about the same as oddsmakers number.

Are the high seeds a good or bad wager Friday evening?

In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?

(1)Duke vs (16)Arkansas Pine Bluff

The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as championship game participant. That is not exactly man bites dog material given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest from public perception No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.

By now, most are familiar with the fact Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.

(1)Syracuse vs (16)Vermont

The Orangemen are 16-point choice and they need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.

Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.

(2)Ohio State vs (15)UC-Santa Barbara

Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17-point favorite with total of 132, suggests a 75-57 final score.

UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.

(4)Maryland vs. (13)Houston

The Terps will have ginourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.

Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, which was the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.

Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offensives, holding teams to 38.8 percent and are 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15 or more games this season.

(5)Michigan State vs. (12)New Mexico State

The Spartans are favored by 13-points over New Mexico State and cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.

If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), they could have a game on their hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s and the Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.

Michigan State does the job by keeping N.M. State out of the lane area and allowing them to fall in love with three point heaves, which they are prone to do. If the Aggies are not dropping long shots and can’t earn what they need within 15-feet of the basket, the total of 148 fits the Spartans when the numbers fall between 140 to 149.5, showcasing 14-5 ATS mark.

Kansas the favorite and how the rest shakes out

This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets. (We all know who Ashley Judd likes)

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.

Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.

Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.

The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams – Kansas Maryland Ohio State Georgetown

West Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.
UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

West Region Sweet 16 teams –Syracuse Murray State Kansas State Pittsburgh

South Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

It’s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.

For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can’t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.

Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog.

Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.

Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation’s capital.

Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary’s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary’s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.

The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.

Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.

South Region Sweet 16 teams –Duke Texas A&M Villanova Baylor

East Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?

Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.

In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.

West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).

This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.

New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.

The Pac-10 was in danger as recently as three weeks ago of only sending one team to the tournament, when Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) started playing like the team the pre-season publications forecasted. The Huskies have won eight of nine and seven in a row, becoming Pac-10 champions, winning the post-season tourney. The complete turnaround has happened by being mentally tougher away from Seattle, having won six straight (5-1 ATS). They will face similar Marquette (22-11, 17-10 ATS) club that can also motor and is a two-point favorite. This contest involves two star players not everyone is familiar with, Lazar Hayward of the Golden Eagles and Quincy Pondexter of Washington and that alone is reason to watch.

East Region Sweet 16 teams –Kentucky Temple West Virginia Washington

Brackets Announced Today

On Friday we posted a 2-1 day and today the choices are much thinner. We have a NBA system that is 88.5 percent, but tough to swallow. The Big Ten title game has quite an angle and the LCC has a unanimous pick in the A-10. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- This has been a wild ride for me the last few days betting conference tournaments with 4-5, 4-7 and 7-1 days.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites like Milwaukee who are + or (-) three points per game differential, against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less. Though the Bucks seem like obvious play, this 23-3 ATS system takes me off the game.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The favorite in Ohio State and Minnesota matchup is 8-0 ATS.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection is 100 percent (7-0) behind Temple to win and cover.

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Big 10 (11) Title Game Preview

The Minnesota Golden Gophers know how to add simple numbers. If they can count 3, 2 and 1, Minnesota will be the Big Ten postseason champions for 2010. The Golden Gophers dropped third-seeded Michigan State 72-67 in overtime on Friday night and humiliated second seeded Purdue 69-42 yesterday and have their sights set on No. 1 Ohio State in the final game before the NCAA Tournament begins.

This is the first time the Golden Gophers have playing for the Big Ten championship and they believe in themselves. “I feel we can compete with any team in the country and I feel we can compete with any team in the Big Ten,” said forward Ralph Sampson III, who had a team-high 13 points Saturday. “We’ve proven it in this tournament right now.”

Minnesota is coached expertly by Tubby Smith and has won seven of nine and is adding up spread wins faster than the 10,000 lakes are melting with 8-1 ATS run. The Gophers were actually presumed to be better most of the season but again struggled away from home (4-9 and 3-10 ATS before hitting Indianapolis this weekend) until now.

Minnesota has place a guillotine on opposing offenses in this tournament, holding them to 35.6 percent shooting and is 9-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

Ohio State is definitely living by the March basketball motto of “survive and advance”. The Buckeyes have won on a combination of luck, skill and opponents breakdowns to reach the championship, seeking a third title.

Evan Turner sank a 37-footer at the buzzer to shock Michigan in the quarter-finals and needed 50 minutes to eliminate Illinois yesterday afternoon. The Wolverines used poor judgment in allowing Turner to have such a good look at the basket for winning shot (though he deserves credit for making it) and the Fighting Illini had two chances at the end of regulation and the first overtime to oust Ohio State and never managed a shot.

The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more (though it took awhile) over the last three seasons and are surviving on guile as much as skill. “Sometimes you just have to will your way and make things happen and that’s it,” said Turner.

Ohio State is favored by four-points, with total of 129.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 7-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, but only 1-4 ATS against foes on neutral floors. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been made an underdog (4-1 SU) and is 6-0 OVER after allowing 55 points or less this season.

This is the last conference championship, which will begin at 3:30 Eastern on CBS and the favorite in the matchup is perfect 8-0 SU and ATS.

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 3:50 PM MST

I got an email from a guy who is a pretty sharp bettor who told me to play Michigan on the money line. I didn’t see it until after the game had started, I can only hope he also had the Wolverines against the spread.

An absolutely superb performance by Michigan in which they should have won the game, but their coach John Beilein had his team push hard for 39 minutes and 57.8 seconds and just like a football coach, goes into prevent defense. There is really no defending their defense in those few precious seconds. Manny Harris and his teammates deserved better, but their coach didn’t do his job at crunch time.

You have to give props to Evan Turner, it was a remarkable shot and what ESPN’s Steve Lavin said, I thought as it was happening, great form by Turner to give him and his team a chance.

How do you figure Illinois? For 35 minutes they looked like they should have tied for the Big Ten title, great precision on offense and stifling defense. Wisconsin ended shooting 28.6 percent for the game and was outrebounded by five and certainly did not look like Bo Ryan coached team as eight point favorites.

The top plays from the handicappers today look like this today. St. Louis (L) Florida State, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Xavier.

College teams make case for Big Dance

This evening, ranked teams Vanderbilt, UTEP and Ohio State are looking for brownie points in enhance position for NCAA Tournament, but what about their opponents, what kind of noise can they make, since it is because of them you even know the name Joe Lunardi. Here is a look at what the three OTHER teams have to do tonight in the final week of college basketball.

Leave the alligator alone

Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS) is attempting to reenter the NCAA Tournament after a two-year period making their way thru the minor leagues of the NIT. Depending on one’s point of view, the optimist would see playing ranked teams Vanderbilt (22-6, 13-12 ATS) and Kentucky as a real opportunity to lockdown a bid, while the pessimist would see two more losses coming.
The Gators didn’t help their own confidence, losing at Georgia 78-76 this past Saturday and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss. Nevertheless, the coach believes they will come back.

“This team has played hard all year, and they’ve responded well,” coach Billy Donovan said. “I anticipate that they’ll respond and play as hard as they can. Our guys understand we have to play well to put ourselves in a good position.”

Florida is a three-point home favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 146.5. The Gators are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and are 11-1 and 8-4 ATS at the O'Connell Center against the Commodores. Vandy is only 4-15 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

Watch out for Thundering Herd

For the last several years, a good trivia question pertaining to college basketball would have been, “In 30 seconds, name the other teams in Conference USA besides Memphis?” With John Calipari taking his recruiting skills and likely probation to Kentucky, like a field filled with small holes, C-USA teams are like prairie dogs popping their heads above ground level and scurrying about. One such team is UTEP (22-5, 11-12 ATS), who is seeking outright title this evening in the state West Virginia and are set to be a treacherous foe for a higher seed in the Big Dance.

Another team trying to get noticed is Marshall (22-7, 14-8 ATS), who is 10-4 and in fourth place in C-USA. Not familiar with the Thundering Herd, than you are missing out. Marshall started the season 15-2, and then lost five in a row, with three of the losses by a total of nine points. This experience made this club tougher and they have reeled off seven wins in a row (4-2 ATS). The Herd holds teams to 38.7 percent shooting, 14th in the country. Marshall has a swatting machine in 6’11 Hassan Whiteside. The freshman leads the country in blocked shots at almost unimaginable 5.5 per game and his 159 rejection notices are 16th all-time in the NCAA with two games to go. For good measure, Whiteside also averages 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. Marshall is 11-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

This should be a tremendous matchup, as the Miners also play great defense (38.9 percent shooting allowed) and shoot the ball well (47.8) and create defensive pressure and are 15-6 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. Marshall is a slim one point favorite, with total having risen to 147.5 and the Herd is 8-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

What kind of fight does Illini have?

Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota this past Saturday might be the deciding factor as to why they don’t make the field of 65. Coach Bruce Webber’s team has lost three of four and needs to beat ranked teams Ohio State and Wisconsin this week and probably at least get into Big Ten tourney semifinals to secure a spot. After going thru a period of six games starting in late January where they shot 51.1 percent as team (5-1, 4-2 ATS), Illinois (18-11, 11-15-1 ATS) has gone frigid, shooting 37.3 percent or worse in three of last four contests.

The off-target Illini were 23 for 72 against the Golden Gophers, yet remain hopeful since they are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 33 percent of their shots or less.
They will take on a motivated Ohio State squad (23-7, 15-15 ATS) who has plenty to play for. This is the Buckeyes last Big Ten game and a victory assures them of finishing no worse than tied for conference crown, with a chance to still win it outright, pending the results of Purdue and Michigan State, who also have four league losses. The Buckeyes have won nine of 10 (5-5 ATS) and are off a non-cover against Michigan, which plays to their favor since they are 27-12 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.

The sixth ranked Buckeyes are led by Evan Turner, whose stellar all-around play (21.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals) has him as virtual shoo-in for Big Ten player of the year and in a small group for national player of the year. “I wanted to win a Big Ten title, try to get a national championship and try to be one of the best to ever come out of here,” Turner said.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite, however the way the Big Ten season has gone, road teams have enjoyed much success when you least expect it, especially among the top level clubs. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games this season, while the grey and scarlet clad Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in home games after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this campaign.

CBB Weekend Hoops Contests

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb.20

Florida at Mississippi (-4.5, 146) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue (-12.5, 137) 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-1, 155) 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State (-7, 126.5) 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State (-4, 135) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
StatFox Power Line – Michigan State by 2

Villanova at Pittsburgh (+3, 147) 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke (-13, 138) 7:45E FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

Tune it up for Thursday

We are off a 3-0 Tuesday and I believe 12-3 (11-3-1 for some) in last 15 tries for 3DW. Kyle has been nothing short of amazing and hands out what he believes to be another CBB winner out of the West Coast Conference. On the topic of the WCC, that is where today’s Top Trend comes from. Today’s Top System is not official play (needs to be 80 percent) however the best I could find is awfully close at 79.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought last night- Ohio State deserved to lose last night, taking I believe eight consecutive shots from 20 feet or better and not converting one after taking the lead in second half. Coach Thad Matta gets a C for last night for not running play in the lane. (Don’t want to hear they couldn’t pass the ball down low either, I witnessed six times somebody was open in the post)

Sometimes life isn’t fair. Notre Dame deserved to win last night at Louisville, losing in 2 OT’s without Big East’s leading scorer and four players fouling out but didn’t, at least backers got the money.

It was vodka bottle clear last night what is wrong with Texas, collectively they just don’t play as hard as they did earlier in the season, period.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home favorites of 10 or more points like Denver U. revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, against opponent off a home loss against a conference rival. This almost qualifying system is 42-11 ATS, 79.2 the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Portland Pilots (good to know your nicknames) are 10-1 ATS as a favorite this season winning by 14.3 points per contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Mr. College Basketball, Kyle, is on 25-4 run and prefers St. Mary’s tonight.

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Let's have fun on Monday - Winning that is

Take the old 2-1 day every day. Wouldn’t it be great to go 2-1 for a year and bet each day progressively! Have Big Monday system and Top Trend in action in separate games. The former is 82.4 percent and the latter is perfect. While not perfect, Kyle is damn close with the runs he’s on. His next top play is up. Good Luck

What I thought today- What’s not to like about New Mexico? The Lobos were one of the early surprise teams in the country starting 12-0. After a few early stumbles in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico stabilized and has won nine in a row, including two very impressive road games at UNLV and Utah, raising their record to 23-3 and mostly importantly to all of us 16-8-1 ATS.

Baylor is 19-5 after their 64-62 win over Missouri Saturday. Watching the Bears, they do a lot of things well, which is why it is hard to understand why they have only covered two of their last six games. Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udah are special talents for Scott Drew’s team. Shot selection seems to be the biggest problem at winning time.

Duke is obviously the best team in a so-so ACC league, yet being such a public team, they are 10-3 ATS at home. With a 14-0 SU record, maybe winning by 27.6 points per game has something to do with.

Illinois played like a team on Sunday that ran out of gas playing one tough after another in the Big Ten and couldn’t muster the emotion needed for a focused and clearly superior Ohio State club.

Louisville has become one those teams you can’t trust to bet for or against. The Cardinals stood at 1-6 and 2-5 ATS in true road games after being ripped to shreds by St. John’s 74-55 as 5.5-point road favorites. You would figure they would play better at Syracuse since Rick Pitino is too good of coach. However, after the Orangemen took a lead in the final seven minutes, you had to believe Louisville would again find a way to lose on the road to the No.2 team in the country and instead they fought right back and pulled the upset. Are you watching Villanova?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a favorite like Villanova after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. Since 2005, this dandy system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas is 12-0 ATS when playing against teams with 60-80 percent win percentage after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 3-0 yesterday, the dude is just freakin’ sick right now. He’s thinking Maryland mashes Virginia.

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Time to get serious about wagering college basketball

What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 13

Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS

Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.

Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.

Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network

The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.

Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.

Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast

A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.

No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.

George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC

These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.

Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.

Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark

Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2

Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.

Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.

Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E

In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.

Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.

Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.

Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN

You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.

All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.

The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 14

Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS

This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.

Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.

The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.

Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN

Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.

Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.

CBB HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES…

HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES… Know Where Your Team Performs Best

With the 2009-10 College Hoops regular season entering the month before the Big Dance, it’s important to get a pulse on how teams are performing both at home and on the road this campaign.

While there is no certainty that teams will continue to either over-or-under achieve in their best or worst roles, there is no sense in hoping teams will change their stripes at this stage of the season.

Let’s examine the Top Five best and the very worst results by teams in games played at home and on the road through Monday, January 31of this season. All results are ATS…

COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME TEAMS

Moneymakers:

1. Kansas State 7-1
2. San Jose State 7-1
3. Villanova 5-1
4. Wichita State 5-1-1
5. Oklahoma State 4-1-1

Moneyburners:

1. Duquesne 0-5
2. Massachusetts 0-5
3. TCU 1-9
4. Penn State 1-7
5. South Alabama 1-7-1

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROAD TEAMS

Moneymakers:
1. St. Mary’s 6-1
2. Maryland 5-1
3. Mississippi 5-1
4. Northern Iowa 5-1-1
5. Syracuse, Villanova 4-1

Moneyburners:

1. Denver 0-8
2. Washington 0-5
3. California 0-4-1
4. Stanford 1-7
5. Ohio State, Western Kentucky 1-6

There you have it. The best and worst performances by teams in a starring role to date this season. While not quite Oscar worthy, it’s best to remember that forewarned is forearmed…

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

Saturday College Buckets

Men’s college basketball takes over on Saturday’s for the next several months with a boatload of action for sports bettors and those that like to handicap. The coverage is coast to coast and goes from morning until past midnight depending on your location. CBS Sports has a Big Ten battle and two interesting non-conference clashes. ESPN has its usual Big East confrontation early in the day and a top shelf ACC encounter in prime time. This week we also take a look at an unusual matchup in the Colonial Conference, with one team expected to contend and another trying to work its way up. It promises to be a super way to enjoy a Saturday. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com. (Note: Though childish, take a look where Duke player's left foot is. He probably left the Wake Forest player with a pair of blue devils)

Michigan State at Minnesota (-2,138.5) 12:00E CBS

Kudos to coach Tom Izzo, understanding his team and the chemistry involved after finishing runner up for the national championship. Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) was lacking a spark early in the year, as several of last year’s players had not shown improvement. Izzo witnessed sophomore forward Draymond Green was his most consistent player, but felt he might get lost as a starter. Instead, Izzo made Green his sixth man, which has light a fire for the Spartans virtually every game he’s entered. Green rebounds, blocks shots, creates steals and scores, making him an instant success every time he hits the floor. The Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS on the road off of three straight home games.

Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS) has played frenetic defense all season, holding teams to 38.5 percent shooting, something you would expect from a Tubby Smith coach squad. It’s never flashy, but extremely frustrating for opponents trying to find open shots and passing lanes. Minny is 8-1 ATS at home when opponents convert 31 to 37 percent of three’s. The Golden Gophers have been bolstered on offense with Blake Hoffarber who has regained his shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc. He and Lawrence Westbrook will need big games to slow down Spartans.

The Spartans are 7-3 SU at “The Barn”, with 5-3-2 ATS record.

Villanova at St. John’s (+6.148.5) 12:00E ESPN

Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play with. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.

This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which meant unless they can made something positive happen immediately, it was setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is 13-3 ATS on playing on Saturday’s.

Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters.

Ohio State at West Virginia (-6,133) 2:00E CBS

The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player Evan Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts.

The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team and when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, the offense works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests.

West Virginia is 10-3 after a victory with 4-8 ATS mark. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.

Texas at Connecticut (+3, 147) 4:00E CBS

No one can claim this talent-laden Texas (17-1, 8-6 ATS) team has taken the easy way out scheduling wise this season. Besides playing in the arduous Big 12, the Longhorns have gone out of their way to take on some the best schools from the top conferences and will again to play Connecticut. The Texas roster is a puzzle for opposing coaches to figure out. Focus on Damion James and Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley or Gary Johnson can carve an opponent up. The other aspect that shines thru, the Horns players seem to genuinely enjoying playing with one another and share the glory. Texas is 14-0 and 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this campaign.

Evidently Big East play isn’t challenging enough for Connecticut (12-6, 6-9-1 ATS), they have to find a team that is one of the finest in the country to break up the conference slate. All kidding aside, coach Jim Calhoun ( now on medical leave) has played encounters like this the last several years as a refocusing distraction, to test the mental awareness of his players with February not far away. For the most part, the Huskies have played about as expected; nonetheless having Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu elevate their play improves UConn considerably. Connecticut is 16-8 ATS in January games since 2007.

Texas comes to Connecticut off its first loss of the season and hasn’t played well this month, with 0-5 spread record and barely beating Texas A&M CC 76-70. The Longhorns are 1-9-1 against clubs with a winning home record. The Huskies are 9-3 in non-conference action, with sordid 2-8 ATS record.

Old Dominion at William & Mary (+4.5,125) 7:00E WSKY

The standings in the Colonial Conference have many of the usual suspects, however one is different. William & Mary (14-4, 9-4-1 ATS) has been hanging around the upper echelons of the league this season, with coach Tony Shaver’s club displaying supreme confidence. Point guard Quinn McDowell has been the catalyst, playing close to mistake-free as the Tribe has the fewest turnovers in the conference. William & Mary’s confidence comes from how they have played on road where they are 7-3 and 7-2 ATS. Off their defeat at Virginia Commonwealth, the Tribe is 7-1 ATS following a SU loss.

Old Dominion (15-5, 6-9-1 ATS) was the preseason pick to win the Colonial and they look the part in a three-way tied for first place. The Monarchs play superior defense like always (55.5 points per game) and are the league’s top rebounding team. Though the season has gone well, coach Blaine Taylor made a lineup switch, putting guard Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup and the results have been fantastic. At 6’4, Bazemore gives ODU more size in the backcourt and his length creates defensive issues for smaller opponents. The Monarchs are 11-3 off a SU win, with underwhelming 4-7 ATS mark this season, which reflects the past since they are 8-20 ATS after a triumph.

Old Dominion is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at the Williamsburg, VA campus and the visiting team has covered five in a row.

Duke at Clemson (+1,146) 9:00E ESPN

You can bet coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 their last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more tries.

Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers.

Duke is off upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in 10 vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.