SEC and A-10 Game Previews

It’s hard to argue with the two earlier matchups on Sunday in the Southeastern Conference and the Atlantic 10. Kentucky and Mississippi State won their respective divisions in the SEC and Temple and Richmond were battling for the league crown in the A-10 right from the moment league play commenced. Three of the four teams are a lock to hear their name Sunday, while one will have to play with great urgency to make sure their name is called.

Bulldogs still on the bubble

Mississippi State is in the SEC title tilt for a second consecutive year and according to those that follow how the brackets are made, are still situated atop the bubble. Coach Rick Stansbury understands his team better than anyone and knows what it has been through in putting together 23-10 campaign. The Bulldogs lost star recruit Renardo Sidney to ineligibility, suffered a series of injuries and gotten far less than expected out of point guard position.

Stansbury also knows a little better play at point probably turns around a few of the six losses into wins, losing those contests by five or fewer points. He can’t change the past, but his Bulldogs can assure their future with the upset of Kentucky. Off their win over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State is 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game and has to find a way to slow down the Big Blue machine.

Kentucky might have put in the best performance of any top level team in the tournament in blasting 15th ranked Tennessee 74-45. Freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall paced the Wildcats as Kentucky shot 52.1 percent while holding the Volunteers to 19 first half points and 30.9 percent shooting for the game. John Calipari’s crew is 6-3 ATS in last nine outings.
Mississippi State feels they are up to the challenge, having lost to Kentucky in overtime 81-75 and DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point underdogs with total of 138.

“They’re one of the best teams in the country, and when they came to our place, we had them, but it slipped out of our hands,” said Bulldogs forward Jarvis Varnado. “We want this rematch, and we’ll be up for it.” The gang from Starkville is 10-4 ATS as an underdog.

This SEC showdown begins at 1:00 Eastern on ABC and Kentucky is 0-7 ATS after allowing 50 or less points.

Owls and Spiders collide

Not exactly two common nicknames, however Temple and Richmond have played uncommon basketball all season long. The Owls are a real hoot with what they accomplished this season. Temple’s 28 wins are the most since the 2001 campaign, they knocked off a Top 5 team this season (city rival Villanova) and broke into the Top 25 for the first time in nine years.

Top seeded Temple is seeking its third straight A-10 postseason title and features three features double-figure scorers in Ryan Brooks, Juan Fernandez and Lavoy Allen. The Owls have been the bettor’s best friend with 22-11 ATS record this season and they are now 9-1 ATS in March since last year.

Richmond finished with the third seed and played a highly entertaining contest with Xavier on Saturday, coming out on top in overtime 89-85 as three-point underdogs. The Spiders are led by the sensational Kevin Anderson, who despite being 5’11 can get any shot on the floor he wants, similar to Tony Parker of San Antonio.

Anderson isn’t the only quality Richmond player, with David Gonzalvez and others able to wisely find shots and openings in coach Chris Mooney offense. The Spiders are 15-5 ATS away from home against A-10 competitors the last two years.

Richmond is a four-point underdog, with total listed at 115.5 and has tremendous respect for their opponent.

“They look great,” coach Chris Mooney said of Temple. “They are one of the best teams in the country. I think coach (Fran) Dunphy is one of the best coaches in the country. Their defense is suffocating. Their offense is very, very good and efficient. It’s going to be an enormous challenge.” The Spiders were up to the challenge once handing Temple their last loss 71-54 at home, nine games ago.

Temple is stellar 8-1 since that time and is unbelievable 8-0 ATS in conference tournament games over the last three seasons. Both teams get the national spotlight with a 1:00 Eastern start on CBS.

Battle of Big Men in SEC Action

Kentucky’s second ranked basketball team is the tallest in the country and at any time they could play a NBA-sized frontline and often do. Four of their keys players are freshmen and from a purely talent standpoint only Syracuse might have more arguably, with Kansas right behind them. Though the Wildcats have been tripped up just once all season, they have not been to Starksville, where it is not unusual for Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS) to play beyond their ability when a top level team arrives in town.

Mississippi State’s offense may go up and like the stock market, but its defense delivers like UPS. Center Jarvis Varnado is a swatting machine near the bucket and has a real hunger for grabbing rebounds. The Bulldogs have been at the top of the SEC in fewest points allowed (62.6 points per game) nearly the entire season and would be a Top 25 team if coach Rick Stansbury could get reliable point guard play. Whether its regular starter Dee Bost or backups, too many forced plays and poor shot selection have contributed to Mississippi State losing six games by five points or less.

The Bulldogs defeated Auburn in overtime 85-75 in last contest and are 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are tied with Arkansas at 6-4 for the SEC West lead and their offense is built around making long bombs. Mississippi State made 11 three’s balls against the Tigers for the win and they are proficient at home shooting the long ball with 39.7 percent marksmanship, converting on 10 of 26 attempts. With a defense that allows 36.8 percent shooting percentage and ability to score in bunches, it’s no wonder Mississippi State is 14-2 ATS against offensive clubs scoring 77 or points a game.

The Wildcats (24-1, 12-11 ATS) might not do everything right to please coach John Calipari, but they are awfully close. This team is dominated by freshmen who can play and they have grown as the season as progressed. That is not only a compliment to the players, but to Coach Cal who has impressed on them the importance of playing defense, holding opponents 37.6 percent shooting, by effectively cutting off the lane area. Though the Bulldogs are good rebounding team with a +4 in margin differential, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at +10. The Wildcats are 26-8 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kentucky will have to stand-up to three point barrage they will face. “They are going to shoot them whether you are there or not, you just have to make them hard,” Calipari said. “You have to understand what you’re playing against. You can’t fall asleep.” The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS off a spread win, including dropping last five.

Kentucky is three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total of 143. The game features a potential unique matchup of big men, Varnado against DeMarcus Cousins. Varnado leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally with 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s second in NCAA history with 519 career blocked shots. Cousins’ has exceptional offensive skills in the paint, is an aggressive defender and can really run the court. “They’re two different kinds of players,” coach Calipari said. “One is going to block shots and be active and be quicker to the ball. The other is just a hard matchup for teams.” Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER after consecutive wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.

This is the second game on Super Tuesday on ESPN and Mississippi State has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum since losing home opener (4-3-1 ATS) and they are 10-1 ATS versus teams making 48 percent of their shots since 2007-08 season. Big Blue has won four of last six in Starksville and is 17-8 ATS off a home win. Because the Bulldogs are not great at guard, John Wall could be the difference.

Keep in mind, the team with the higher three-point shooting percentage is 4-1 ATS.