NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

Early Line Moves in Football

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

Last week was improved across the board as I expected, not sensational, just steady. The college sides were 5-4 ATS, raising record to 12-15 on the year and totals (where many professional bettors hang out) were 7-3 on early action, taking that record to 14-9. Last week, there was no side action in the NFL, leaving the record at 3-2; however the totals were 2-1, for 2-4 start.

I’m all but certain next year I won’t count the first week in college or pros, since those numbers have too much exposure over time to all kinds of bettors.

College Sides
Northwestern -2 to +1.5
Rutgers -3 to Pick
Utah -11.5 to -14
Navy -26.5 to -30
Arizona -2.5 to +2

College Totals
Misso/Nev 58 to 62
Buff/Temple 49 to 45.5
TCU/Clem 48 to 44
UAB/Tex A&M 60 to 63
USM/Kansas 57 to 61
ASU/ Geor 56 to 51
Cal/Oreg 60 to 56
USF/Flor. St. 54 to 50
N.D./Purdue 57 to 60

NFL Sides
Green Bay -8.5 to -6.5
San Diego -7.5 to -5.5
Pittsburgh -6 to -3.5
Arizona Pick to -2.5

NFL Totals
SF/Minn 42 to 40
Car/Dall 45 to 47.5

Boise State travels to Raisin Country

Boise State opens defense of its WAC title and goes for its seventh crown in eight years with even higher ambitions. The Broncos have started in scintillating fashion with consecutive wins over Oregon and Miami-O and have their eyes pointed to another BCS berth if they can go undefeated and be impressive in its televised tilts. They will take to the road for their first conference game against a team noted for playing the good teams tough.

The Broncos are 54-2 and 35-21 ATS in WAC play since joining in 2001, with one of those straight up losses coming in 2005 at Bulldog Stadium 27-7. Fresno State coach Pat Hill has always placed great importance on certain games and evidently not others, as Fresno State has never won a WAC title in his 12 years. However, this one matchup the Bulldogs would love to have and get Fresno State on the home page of sports websites.

The Bulldogs almost knocked off the Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers on the road last Saturday. Fresno State held 21-7 lead as 7.5-point underdogs, but three Ryan Colburn second half interceptions kept Wisconsin in the game and the Bulldogs eventually lost 34-31 in double overtime. Coach Hill has expressed confidence his team will respond to bitterly disappointing loss, there is evidence to suggest otherwise with Fresno State 5-11-1 and plaintive 1-16-1 ATS of defeat.

Sports bettors are passing on various sorts of this kind of information.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened the Bulldogs as 12-point underdogs and has moved them downward to +7.5 according to the action, with total of 53.5. Fresno State has lost seven of last eight SU and ATS, including last three by almost 30 points per game.

Boise State is 11-3 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more over the last three seasons.

Fresno State is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored and 13-4 UNDER at after covering one or more wins spreads.

This is one of what is believed to be three road tests for Boise State, which will be played before a boisterous Bulldogs crowd. The Broncos are expected to win the game, yet are only 10-11 ATS as away favorites since 2005.

ESPN has the kickoff at 9 Eastern and in last eight WAC meetings; the winner has covered the spread by 14 points per game.

Know your College Football Coaches before wagering

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh - Virginia- 31-18

Notes- Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 26-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes at Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Turner Gill –Buffalo- 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie –UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest– 28-19

Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-22 and 6-17 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -9-2
Mark Mangino –Kansas -25-9
Mike Gundy –Okla. State – 15-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina -14-7

Notes-Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 27-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 19-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-7
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 20-10
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5

Notes- Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 9-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Mike Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-5
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 11-4
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 27-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6

Notes- Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-27 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-12 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-13 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden –Florida State- 43-23
Randy Edsall– UConn – 28-15

Notes- Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-14 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.

Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

College Football is Back!

Finally! After what seems like an eternity, all the talk about college football will cease and the games will be played, with salivating sports bettors ready for action. Five lined games will open the festivities and we’ll cover four of them here, including the very first one, South Carolina at N.C. State. Let the fun begin!

South Carolina at N.C. State

Folks in Columbia are still waiting for the Steve Spurrier magic to kick in. In four seasons, the ol’ ball coach is 28-22 and 26-20-1 against the spread. After losing last three games, including bowl invite by a combined score of 118-30, the never satisfied Spurrier changed out five coaches trying to find magic formula to turn South Carolina into SEC contender. With only 12 starters returning, Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work. Previous quarterbacks have transferred out except for sophomore Stephen Garcia, who has worked on being better passer to match his athletic running style. The offense only rushed for 94.1 yards per game last year and new line coach Eric Wolford is preaching toughness. The defense has talent in front seven; however secondary has to be rebuilt after finishing second in the country in passing yards allowed. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 ATS in last eight road games.

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. O’Brien enters his third season in Raleigh with 11-14 record, though has bettors attention with 15-8 ATS mark. Leading the way is ACC Rookie of the Year Russell White, who tossed 17 touchdowns, with only one interception. The offensive line should be steady with three starters back, however quality depth is nonexistent beyond starting five. The linebackers are difference-makers and the defensive line has potential All-ACC performers Alan-Michael Cash and Willie Young. The secondary has questions that will have to be answered for another bowl trip for a squad that is on 7-0-1 ATS run to start a new campaign.

With weeks to look at the side and total from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, sports bettors have taken N.C. State from three-point favorites to five. The total has remained relatively stable moving from 45 to 46.

North Carolina State was embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina as two touchdown underdogs last year and are looking forward to return engagement at Carter-Finley Stadium this go-round. This matchup will once again be on ESPN at 7 Eastern and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 against the spread in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on September 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. N.C. State is 4-1-1 ATS hosting the Gamecocks.

Troy at Bowling Green

This game will garner very little attention on the national scope, however is extremely important to Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. The SBC teams have for years taken paydays to be somebody’s patsy (they still will, just less frequently); however they have a goal in mind today. The Sun Belt wants to gain recognition like the MAC teams and in order to surpass them and gain bragging rights, they have to start knocking them off.

Troy is the unanimous choice to win the Sun Belt and is loaded on both sides of the ball. If the offensive line comes together, the Trojans could surpass last year’s offense that averaged more than 32 points per game. Defensively, the athletic front seven is a load for a team that is 7-3 ATS on the non-conference road.

First year coach Dave Clawson is right about his team’s non-conference schedule, “It’s a really challenging schedule,” Clawson said about playing Troy, Boise State, at Missouri and at Marshall. “The one thing I do know is that we will be well-prepared for our MAC schedule by the time we are through with our out-of-conference schedule.” With just 10 starters returning, the Eagles might be hard pressed to improve on 3-10 ATS home record the last three years. Troy is touchdown favorite.

North Texas at Ball State

On ESPNU at 7:30 Eastern, two other Sun Belt and MAC teams will collide. North Texas ruled the SBC in the early years of this decade, no more, having won five conference games in last four years. Coach Todd Dodge is convinced the personnel is improving and if his redshirt freshman son Riley can rev up the offense, brighter days could be ahead in Denton for a team that is 0-20 and 2-18 ATS in non-conference road games.

Ball State won’t look like the same team. A new coach, new quarterback and four new offensive linemen are where it starts in Muncie. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page takes over for prolific passer Nate Davis and hopes his line will give him time to show off his arm. The defense switches to 4-3 from 3-4, however has speed and athletes on this side of the ball seldom seen on the Ball State campus. The Cardinals are 16-point favorites and are 7-1 ATS as home chalk.

Utah at Utah State

It will be a tough encore for Utah after completing 13-0 season and ranked No.2 in the final polls after taking apart Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes lost QB Brian Johnson to graduation and coach Kyle Whittingham has decided to keep everyone in suspense about who his new signal caller will be. Blog reports from observers have seen junior college transfer Terrance Cain taking the majority of the snaps with the first team. Utah is listed as 21-point favorite over in-rival Utah State and they are 10-5-1 ATS as 20-point or more choice.

Utah players and coaches will see a familiar face on the Aggies sideline in Gary Andersen, who has been the Utes defensive coordinator the last three seasons. Anderson has brought excitement to Logan, though the talent will still have to arrive later. In “The Battle of the Brothers” Utah is 11-0 and 8-3 ATS since 1998, with the visitor 8-1 ATS. This is on the MTN at 9:00 Eastern.

Today, review these American League Totals

It’s a lighter card in the junior circuit and it’s as good a time as any to look some different wagering possibilities. Most knowledgeable baseball sports bettors prefer to play totals since they believe they are easier to beat and less risk is involved paying the juice. Here is a look at each American League contest reviewing the best ways to consider on the totals front.

Texas at New York

This will be the only afternoon affair in the AL, as these two playoff contenders wrap up three-game series. They have split the first two games and have played Over on both occasions. The Yankees are 29-29-3 against the oddsmakers total number at home and are 9-1 Over at home vs. an AL starting pitcher like Dustin Nippert (4-2, 3.95, 1.457 WHIP as starter), whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last two seasons. Texas has been a decided Under team on the road with 36-22-2 record and they are 16-2 Under after a loss by four runs or more this season. Bookmaker.com has this contest at Ov9.5 and home plate umpire Jim Reynolds has called 14 of 21 games Over this season.

Cleveland at Baltimore

The Indians travel to Baltimore to open a four-game series and they are 19-7 Over in road games after a win this season. The Tribe is a modest underdog and they are 33-12 Over as a road dog of +100 or higher in 2009, in part thanks to bullpen that has 5.70 ERA in visiting uniforms. The Orioles will face the servings of lefthander Aaron Laffey (7-3, 3.42) and they are 27-17-2 Under vs. port-siders, averaging just four runs per contest. Baltimore is 17-7 Under at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Chicago at Boston

The White Sox have proven to be the cure after Boston lost series to the Yankees this past weekend. The Red Sox have won the first three games of the series and go for the sweep tonight. Chicago’s offense has held them back, scoring 3.75 runs per game in losing six of last eight and they are 7-1 Under during that stretch. Boston on the other hand has totaled nine or more hits in eight of last nine encounters and is 7-2 Over. The Red Sox won a 3-2 squeaker last night and are 10-2 Over at Fenway Park after a win by two runs or less this season. The Pale Hose are 14-3 Under having lost four of their last five games this season. The total on this conflict has risen to 10.

Kansas City at Seattle

Kansas City jets into Seattle to play four times with Kyle Davies (4-9, 6.12) the opening game pitcher for the Royals. The Mariners are off a sweep of Oakland and 11-0 Over vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20, with average score totaling 12.6 runs a game. The total is set at Un8.5, with the rub being the Seattle bullpen, who has pitched lights out. The M’s are 22-7 Under with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games this season. The Royals only average 3.6 runs per game as visitors they are 23-9 Under vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.

Oakland at Los Angeles

The top Over team in baseball is the Angels at 72-47-6. Los Angeles has the top offense in the big leagues at 5.7 RPG and lacks a quality pitching staff to retire batters consistently. The L.A. bullpen has been an issue from the opening game of the season and the Halos are 12-4 Over after two straight games where the bullpen gave up zero runs this season. Oakland has problems scoring runs. The A’s have tallied more than three runs three times in the last 11 games and average only 4.2 RPG on the road. However, Oakland has shaky starting pitching and the bullpen has shown signs of weakening, particularly on the road and they are 10-3 Over after surrendering five or more runs.

Wagering on the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

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New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.

Nats streak in jeopardy facing gruesome system

Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.

The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.

Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.

These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.

This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.

Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.

Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.

Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.

Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.

How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.

Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.

Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

Umpire Report for Baseball Bettors

In searching thru various forums, I will come across enough baseball bettors, who place real value on who is calling balls and strikes. Though this is often an overlooked aspect of sports wagering, much like meaningful trends, it is foolish not to consider, especially when extreme cases are involved. Much like all but washed-up Mike Hampton of Houston having 14-3 career record against Pittsburgh, including four of his five wins this season; it pays to know all the little oddities that surround baseball to have fuller understanding of winning wagers.

The home plate umpire can and does have a direct impact on every game they call. How often do you see the frustrated batter or pitcher either saying something or emitting body language that you understand as the observer they believed the person with the chest protector missed a call?

Commissioner Bud Selig has unified the umpires, eliminating the way American League and National League umps called games and placed them on higher alert by monitoring their games with special cameras to grade them on regular basis. Though this generally has brought the disparity between the league’s closer together, without question, certain men in blue call the game differently and players have to adjust.

For sports bettors, the greatest influence an umpire can have is on the total. Though the strike-zone is supposed to be uniform, much like pass interference in football, different people have differing views as to what they see. For the sake simplicity and accuracy, we only looked at adjudicators that have called balls and strikes for a minimum of 12 games in 2009. Here are the top UNDER umpires this season to date.

1) Andy Fletcher 13-3-2
2) Scott Barry 13-4-1
3) Brian Gorman 12-4-1
4) Fieldin Culbreth 11-4-1
5) Bill Miller 13-5

Collectively, this contingent is 45.5 units Under in the 67 games they crouched behind the catcher. In most cases, one umpire stands out for his method of calling games and Bill Miller would be the one in this group. Miller has a broader strike zone than most mediators, making him a pitchers delight behind the dish. He ranks eighth in fewest walks allowed (5.9) per game and is second in punch-outs at 15.7 per contest, among the 69 umpires that have called a dozen or more games looking in the pitchers eye.

If you happen to be attending or being able to watch a ballgame, in which our next collection of arbiters is involved behind the plate, make sure you three or more hours, since this will likely be the length of time needed to complete nine innings of baseball.

Here is the Top 5 OVER umps as baseball approaches the All-Star break.

1) Tim McClelland 12-5-2
2) Eric Cooper 12-5
3) Randy Marsh 11-5-1
4) Jim Reynolds 8-4
5) Jerry Meals 11-6-1

As you can see, this assemblage is not as one-sided in viewpoint of what they are calling as their fellow brethren in blue. This collection is 46-25 (26.4 units) Over, for a 64.7 percentage. Compare that to the Top 5 umpires who call more strikes and force hitters to have wider and longer strike zones. That collection of umps is 62-20 Under, 75.6 percent.

Most pitchers cringe at the thought of Randy Marsh behind the plate, knowing they have to get more of the plate to get strikes rung up, since he is sixth in most walks called at 8.3 per game (same as McClellend) and registers the fewest strikeouts (11.8) among all plate moderators.
It is probably not a wise choice to pick a total based on an umpire alone, but a fool and his money are soon to part if one isn’t knowledgeable who is calling ball and strikes. Remember this the next time you go to a game and hear the words bellow out, “Come on blue, get your head in the game.”

Cleveland Cavs and backers in search of answers

It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however their team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series.

So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.

Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.

When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.

Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.

Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.

Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.

Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.

Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.

Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.

The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.

L.A. seeks answers in hostile environment

If the Los Angeles Lakers would go on to win the NBA championship, the comparisons would be similar to the last title Michael Jordan had in Chicago, where every series and every game for the most part ended up being a severe challenge. Right now, that is probably the furthest thing from Kobe Bryant’s and his teammates mind, as they are waste deep in torment, dealing with Denver team that has strong desire to show they are the new kids on the block.

To this juncture, the difference between the Lakers and Denver is thinner than the Rocky Mountain air and that was in smog-filled L.A. The first two games were mirror images of one another, just from opposite ends.

Denver started Game 1 fast, missed a boatload of free throws and didn’t execute at the end and lost. In Game 2 it was Los Angeles who powered to early lead, only to see the Nuggets come back by halftime. In the second half, Denver made nearly everything from the charity stripe and it was the Lakers who didn’t execute in halfcourt at crunch time.

The perception that the Lakers have better personnel is being backtracked quickly. Derek Fisher should be coming off the bench, since he is defensive liability and doesn’t offer much when his shot is not falling. Though generally effective, how many teams would forward Trevor Ariza start for in the NBA?

Another noted difference is intangible and subjective, but Denver has two mentally strong players in Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, who do the Lakers have beyond Kobe? Pau Gasol is a very good player, but does he play in elite category when the game is on the line, sometimes.

The Lakers are 3-7 ATS in last 10 conference final conflicts and are in third different circumstance in this year’s postseason embarking on first road playoff game of the series. They were up 2-0 heading to Utah and lost by two. They were tied with Houston getting ready to play Game 3 of that series and gave convincing winning effort; however that was coming off a win.

Even the great Zen Master is being dragged through the mud in these NBA Playoffs. Hardcore Lakers fans and backers were shocked Phil Jackson didn’t out-coach Doc Rivers in the Finals last season and many agreed Rivers got the better of Jackson, from motivational perspective in getting his players to play harder.

Jackson is under the microscope again with his team giving more than one sorry effort in the postseason and his substitution patterns coming into question. In Thursday’s contest, he gave Kobe a "mental break" in the fourth quarter and in less then 100 seconds, Denver turned a one point deficit into a five point lead. It should be noted, Jackson has always made discussion generating substitutions, they just always used to work.

Even lame brains like Andrew Bynum are calling Jackson out, saying, "Honestly, I think we need to rethink how we are doing the defense. … They are just attacking it and swinging [the ball] to the other side. It is an easy three-on-two every time that they swing it to the other side."
This zero-sum insight from starting center who was going to be the difference-maker for L.A., yet has logged 34 total minutes and 15 points in two games, not earning the trust of his coach, based on actions, not words.

Denver has covered a confounding dozen straight playoff games and returns home to the Pepsi Center energized and confident. George Karl’s club has won 15 in a row at its mile high place of work (11-4 ATS) and is 20-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Comparisons to other Denver teams are useless, as this group is completely different.

I think we got a lot tougher in the last two minutes of the game," Billups said. "We had guys diving for loose balls. ... We just got tougher, where we should have done that in Game 1. We learned from that and did it in Game 2."

Sports bettors are paying attention also and believing what they are seeing in Denver. DiamondSportsbook.com opened the Nuggets as three-point favorite and it was hit hard the Denver money, moving line to four points, before settling back to 3.5. The total is relatively stationary at 211.5, with the Lakers 15-6 UNDER after one or more losses this season. Melo and the guys will want to come out flying and are 12-3 OVER at home after scoring 100 points or more three straight games.

The Lakers are 22-11 ATS as a road underdog and they are 4-3 SU and ATS in last seven visits to Colorado. Denver is 28-10 ATS after playing consecutive road games and on 22-5 ATS run against teams with winning records.

ESPN moves its cameras East for Game 3 and 8:35 Eastern start, with the last five meetings in Denver between these teams having played UNDER.

NBA Sports Bettors to Ponder Mental State

As evidenced yesterday in Houston, how a professional basketball team feels about a given situation will likely set the tone for the eventual outcome. The old-school ploy of a few handicappers was to suggest they had people in the locker room or inside contacts that would give the sports bettor an edge. If that were true it would have helped in playing against the Lakers yesterday. It would also help to know if Cleveland and Denver want to sweep their respective series up 3-0 or would be content to go home and likely polish off inferior opponents.

Of the two, the Cavaliers look the best to put opposing team out of their misery. LeBron James is playing with the steely determination, probably not seen since No. 23 wore a Chicago Bulls uniform. James won the MVP trophy last week and in Game 3 gave sterling performance, scoring 47 points, nabbing 12 rebounds and handing out eight assists.

When asked what he does when James is having one of nights, Cleveland coach Mike Anderson said, “I try as much as possible,” Brown said Sunday, “to stay out of the way.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has Cleveland as amazing 10-point road favorites, with total of 183. The Cavs deserve this loft status, having outscored Atlanta by over 20 points per game and are destroying them on the boards, with 16 more rebounds per game.

Cleveland has won seven in a row and 12 of 13 (only loss was by one point when James and others either did not play or saw little floor time in final regular season game) and have covered a saucy 11 in a row.

The Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more this season and have the defense to match, being 11-2 ATS after allowing 85 points or less three consecutive contests. Atlanta’s guard Joe Johnson really wants to be defiant, however the facts speak otherwise. “There’s no way you can tell us this team (Cleveland) is 20 to 30 points better than we are. It’s not possible.”-said Johnson.

Joe, I’m afraid it’s true.

Down in Dallas, if Denver comes to play, they can take a down in the dumps Mavericks team and end their suffering with a big first quarter. The entire Dallas organization is still grieving about the non-called intentional foul attempt by Antione Wright on Carmelo Anthony, who in turn sank game winning three-point shot, giving Denver 3-0 lead as four-point underdogs.

What comes to mind about all the Dallas whining is how they didn’t put the Nuggets away before the miracle shot. Denver missed 15 of first 17 shots and only had two buckets from further than five feet in the first 24 minutes, yet led by three at the half. Dallas also had a four point lead with 31 seconds left in the game and could not hold it.

The NBA in its infinite wisdom wasted little time turning out statement saying a foul probably should have been called. Oh, that makes Dallas feel a lot better! If you thought the 61 fouls in Game 3 was too many, wait until Game 4, both coaches better have reserves ready, since league officials are apt to call every visible or questionable foul and not be shown up.

Similar to Cleveland, Denver has turned into a printing press of cash payouts with 8-0 ATS record in the postseason. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season and could be facing a Dallas team who is thinking about the past instead of the present.

“This is about as tough of a loss as I've been a part of in my 11 years," said Dirk Nowitzki, who overcame a difficult week off the court to score 33 points and grab 16 rebounds. "That's a game we've got to have."

He’s right, since no team has ever come back down 3-0 in the NBA Playoffs. Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite and they are just 4-9 ATS in that role in the postseason. Denver is 6-0 against the spread after breaking the 100-point barrier and is 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings with the Mavericks.

All signs point to sweeps on TNT tonight starting at 7 Eastern, however it all depends about the mental state.

Digging for NBA Winners in Easter Basket

On Sunday, a number of kids will conduct Easter egg hunts, which is fun for both children and adults. In many ways, that’s what sports bettors do each and every day, search thru things, looking behind and under every place to find the elusive winner, especially before somebody (the oddsmaker in this case) beats them to it. Thus, enjoy the day and try and hunt a couple of televised winners.

Dallas at New Orleans

It’s been quite a week for the Dallas Mavericks (48-31, 39-40), going from being threatened for last playoff spot, to climbing up the ladder faster than a Dallas oilman who just found a massive oil discovery. The Mavs all but eliminated Phoenix last Sunday, trumped Utah to tie them Wednesday and nailed New Orleans to pull even with the Hornets. Those victories were all executed at home, in order for Dallas to take sole possession of the sixth slot in the Western Conference; they will have to go into the hornets nest to take down New Orleans.

We’ve won some nice home games, but our true tests are on the road,” Nowitzki said, who is averaging 29.8 points over the last five games. “How you respond to some adversity on the road? That’s really what determines if you’re a good team.”

The Mavs have won and covered three in a row with their 100-92 win as 7.5-point favorite over the Hornets Friday. They haven’t done both to take it to four straight since Nov. 21 against Memphis. Breaking the century mark in points score has been important for Dallas, with 10-4 ATS record when doing so.

New Orleans (48-31, 34-44-1 ATS) is going to need greater contributions from players other than Chris Paul and David West to fend off Dallas. Paul had 42 points (one off career high) and West chipped in 20, with those two being the only players to break into double digits. The Hornets have lost four of five with a faulty defense, allowing 102.1 points per game compared to 94.3 PPG on the season.

The Hornets are just 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records and are on 13-3 Under tear. Dallas is 19-28 ATS on the season after a victory and has played Under the last four times against clubs with winning home records.

ABC has the coverage with starting at 1 Eastern with the home team 9-3 ATS.

Boston at Cleveland

This Eastern Conference conflict is a battle being pulled and tugged in many different directions. Boston (60-19, 41-38 ATS) needs one more win to secure the second seed in the East ahead of Orlando, but will have to do battle without one its key components. Kevin Garnett will miss his 20th game out of the last 24, with coach Doc Rivers looking at one of the next two games to have Garnett participate in. The Celtics are on 10-1 and 7-4 ATS roll and have covered last five games against teams with winning records.

Cleveland (64-15, 46-33 ATS) has a little work to do of their own. The Cavaliers have already wrapped up the East and with two wins or a Lakers loss, will own homecourt advantage throughout the postseason.

The Cavs are also trying to get into the record books. This season they are 38-1 (25-14 ATS) at Quicken Loans Arena and if they win last two home games, they tie the record for most home wins at 40, held by the 1985-86 Boston Celtics. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Part two of the Easter doubleheader will begin at 3:30 Eastern with Boston 0-4 SU and ATS at LeBron’s place.

Check with Bookmaker.com for the side and total numbers on these matchups and Happy Easter from 3Daily Winners.

Handicapping for 2009-10 College Basketball

With North Carolina cutting down the nets in Detroit, the 2008-09 college hoops season is history and what can happen next season keeps alumni contributing to their school’s athletic fund and dreaming of sitting behind the team bench in next year’s Final Four. The cry comes out “if we only would have had better facilities” we would have landed that five-star recruit from Montrose Oak Prep Academy.

For the sports bettor, it is never too early to start looking at next year in college hoops. With so many teams and players and coaches moving to a new program, college hoops requires the most preseason handicapping preparation of all sports. Actually, this is the best time to start taking notes while this current season is still fresh on your mind. Hours invested today in study and research are reminiscent of what retirement accounts and mutual funds used to be like: things that grow in value as time goes by.

It is time to start checking schools recruiting classes and incoming, as well as outgoing, transfers. When you actually check the number of transfers that even actually play for their new school, it is alarmingly less than you would expect. Or they fail to live up to lofty expectations, such as the case of originally highly touted 6-10 Eric Boateng who went to Arizona State from Duke. Boateng averaged less than 8 minutes and two points a game this past season.

We’ve already had some major coaching changes, the most notable being the hiring of Memphis’s John Calipari to fill the departure of Billy Gillespie at Kentucky. Mark Gottfried at Alabama finally used up his nine lives while Tony Bennett departs Washington State bringing his Princeton-style offense to Virginia. Mark Fox travels from the University of Nevada to replace Dennis Felton at Georgia. If any other larger schools have job openings, expect to see Creighton’s Dana Altman or New Mexico’s Steve Alford names tossed around.

The pressure for getting the top recruits increased the day the NBA said they required draftees to be one year removed from high school and must have their 19th birthday, or later, in the year of the draft. This rule, in theory, was going to help prevent any more Korleone Youngs, the 1998 poster child of the ill fate that can happen to a high-schooler who shouldn’t go pro early.

However, except for Brandon Jennings who opted for playing overseas in his first year out of high school, we still are seeing a number of “one-and-done” college freshmen. With the continued improvement in early development of players, these one-year players can be program-changers. They can also have a negative effect on a program that can’t reload quickly with capable replacements.

Underclassmen have until April 26 to declare themselves eligible for the draft. Provided they don't sign with an agent, they then have until June 15 to withdraw their names. Some on this year’s list who have already declared are no surprise. Naturally, there will be some “Korleone Youngs” who jump ship too early.

Wake Forest could be the hardest hit school for early professional departures with So. 6-8 James Johnson and Fr. Al-Farouq Aminu most likely leaving and So. PG Jeff Teague also a candidate. Georgetown’s disappointing season could continue into the off-season with 6-8 DaJuan Summers already signing with an agent and 6-10 Fr. Greg Monroe likely to leave.

Both Arizona schools will take a step backwards next year with the Wildcats watching Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger go pro early and possibly even point guard Nic Wise. The Sun Devils will say goodbye to So. James Harden.

Rebuilding next year will be Utah and UAB who both lose four seniors. Both teams had very little depth so the cupboard is fairly bare for returning players. Utah has a very good recruiting class lined up but UAB recently lost a top 5 recruit to Memphis, DeMarcus Cousins. Teams rebuilding with young players should be watched for potential play-on status once conference action gets started and the newbies are learning to play as a team. Early failures can give value later in the season.

With Calipari packing up the U-Haul, recruit Cousins might venture back to the Mike Davis UAB fold or very well could follow Calipari to UK. Currently, this is one of college hoops biggest unsolved mysteries. Who can Calipari bring to UK and who will go elsewhere. Outgoing Kentucky coach Gillespie had signed a fine Wildcat recruiting class including top-flight center Daniel Orton. As of the writing of this article, most everything was up in the air on what would happen.

As judged by one recruiting service, the #1 prospect John Wall, was tempted with Memphis but looks like he is headed to Duke. Lance Stephenson, a top ten recruit, appeared to be signing with Kansas on March 31 but with the Calipari news, he has delayed his announcement. While Stephenson liked Memphis originally, he appeared to be going elsewhere because another top ten shooting guard recruit, Xavier Henry, had already inked with Calipari at MU. With Calipari leaving Elvis’ hometown, it appears so is Henry as he is possibly signing with Kansas, the alma mater of his father, former Jayhawk standout Carl Henry. Another part of the story is he would like to bring his older brother with him, C.J., who was a walk-on at Memphis last year.
This is becoming better than a soap opera. It appears some recruit’s decisions will be predicated upon who is named the new coach at Memphis. Former NBA coaches Reggie Theus and Avery Johnson are at the top of the list.

Currently, Kansas has the #7 rated incoming class and would get a huge boost if either top 10 recruit, Henry or Stephenson, commits to Kansas. If Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins don’t leave early for the NBA, Kansas should be ranked in the top 3 in preseason polls.

Definitely battling for Big 12 supremacy next year will be Texas. The Longhorns lose undersized shooting guard A.J. Abrams but he will be quickly forgotten when 6-3 Avery Bradley arrives in Austin. Bradley was the MVP for the USA Today’s #1 ranked Findlay Prep team of Henderson, NV, who won the inaugural National High School Invitational Sunday. The Horns have the #3 rated recruiting class and will be a top ten team next season. They could move closer to #1 if big man Dexter Pittman continues his improvement in skills and conditioning and Damion James progresses as much next year as he did this year.

Marquette loses three senior starters but has a strong five-man recruiting class. North Carolina has snagged four McDonald’s All-Americans for their upcoming season, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Duke have two each. Nova also has inked 6-9 Mouphtaou Yarou, a surprise non-participant in the Mickey D Classic. The Wildcats’ two McDonald’s participants, both guards, were very impressive and will keep the flame burning in Philly. Duke’s players will bring some needed size to the Blue Devils.

The MVP of the McDonald’s Classic, 6-9 Derrick Favors, will remind Georgia Tech fans of Amare Stoudemire. The Yellow Jackets have a top five class with 5 quality recruits signed that should breath life into what was a stagnant offense this past season.

Tom Crean will have Indiana pointed in the right direction next year with a top ten class. UConn might be facing some stiff NCAA penalties as well as losing 3 seniors and in all probability, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet. With the comments that Connecticut Coach Jim Calhoun is making, you won’t see him on the sidelines next year but in the ESPN studio giving commentary. (after all, he doesn’t live far from their studios)

Cross-town rivals UCLA and USC both have top ten incoming classes. The Bruins lose much more through graduation, though. Pitt loses three senior starters including Sam Young and Levance Fields and probably will see DeJuan Blair opt for the NBA. Not inking an overly strong recruiting class does not bode well for the Panthers next year.

How about a team on the rise that is totally unexpected: Oregon State. Coach Craig Robinson, the President’s brother-in-law, landed two four-star guards and has two Australian frontcourt studs coming in. The surprise of post-season play is also the surprise of the recruiting season.
Do your research now and start uncovering the surprises for the 2009-10 season.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority knows everything basketball and much more.