Friday evening is moving day in NBA Playoffs

One of two things happens to start the weekend in professional basketball, either a series will conclude and the winning squad can start thinking about their next series and opponent or the competing teams will return to familiar locale for a Game 7 on Sunday. This makes for real drama as a trio of series underdogs look to wrap-up or extend a series.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:00E ESPN

Though the hip-hop generation of NBA players likely doesn’t include many U2 fans, a song comes to mind watching Atlanta and Milwaukee the last three games, “Desire”.

The Bucks performance in pulling the 91-87 upset as nine-point favorites was unremarkable, given the fact they shot 40.3 percent for the game, were outscored at the center position 25-4 and saw various players disappear for long stretches even when they were on the floor.

Yet, if one game defines a team and its coach, it was Game 5 for Milwaukee with their desire. Scott Skiles grinded away as a college and NBA player and his less-talented contingent played like he did his whole career. This Bucks team is 14-4 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season and goes for the first surprise of the playoffs.

Atlanta showed what they were made of as Josh Smith, Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford all decided individually they were going to be “the man” and went about their business trying to take their defenders one on one with passing the ball be damned. Once again the Hawks proved they are not mature TEAM and that they lack heart. Peering ahead it is little wonder this team is 1-10 ATS revenging a home loss this season.

Sportsbooks still has the more talent-laden Atlanta squad as two-point favorites, however it would take a large dosage of courage to back a team that is 1-10 SU and ATS on the playoff road the last three seasons. Milwaukee was the best spread team in the NBA this campaign and it is continuing in the playoffs. They are 20-6 ATS having covered the spread in three or more consecutive contests.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The people of the United States are known for their short attention spans and ever increasing shorter memories. In this celebrity-status world, it’s easy to jump on the latest fad and forget about what is tried and true.

The basketball world has become infatuated with latest new kids on the block, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are young, talented, and fearless and their youth doesn’t allow them to be discouraged for long.

The eminent demise of the Los Angeles Lakers has been discussed from coast to coast on talk radio and every chatroom and blog one could stumble upon. The world had lost track of just how good the Lakers can be last playing a complete basketball game on Mar. 12 in Phoenix, 21 games ago or a lifetime in today’s hectic world.

But the Lakers came prepared, executed their game plan Tuesday evening, integrating all the parts of the triangle offense to perfection and showed why gold and purple still matters. L.A. is 26-15 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four.

Oklahoma City gladly returns home, even faced with elimination and is a one-point favorite with total of 194.5. The Thunder is thunderous 15-5 ATS off a road loss and uncanny 27-8 ATS after failing to cover the number. OKC is 13-3 UNDER at the Ford Center after wearing the visiting blue togs. The Lakers will seek to deliver the knockout blow, but are 1-9 ATS off a cover. Kobe and company are 22-8 UNDER with two days’ rest.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

At least for a day, no negative tweets, talk or posturing out of Denver as they held off first match point against Utah at home Wednesday 116-102.

Focal point Carmelo Anthony must have made his case strong enough that he needed help as five other Nuggets scored in double figures and more importantly, the team collectively took a defensive stance, holding the Jazz to series low 45.2 percent.

“Everybody stepped up tonight and did their part,” Anthony said after the game. “With Nene going down early, ‘Frenchie’ came in and stepped up, ‘Bird’ played the way he is supposed to be playing. Everybody played their role tonight. That’s how we won.”

Denver’s more fluid offense is easily measured; they are 47-8 SU when they have 20 or more assists and 9-24 SU when fall below that figure. The Nuggets cannot afford anything less than the same work ethic and compulsion to team work if they expect to continue series and add to 7-3 ATS mark in the first round of postseason.

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a double digit defeat and did not match Denver’s intensity from last contest. “They were a lot more alive, they went after the ball a little harder than we did,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said. “The players off the bench gave them a big lift. Their bench people killed us.”

Utah is up a six-point home favorite, with the total at 215.5 and might face Denver club without Nene, whose been diagnosed with a sprained knee. The Jazz are 17-4 ATS off a road loss and will continue to keep the offense flowing thru Deron Williams, who became the first player in NBA history to record five straight 20-point/10-assist double-doubles to begin a series.

“Stuff was too easy (for the Nuggets),” Williams said. “We have to get back to playing our basketball.”

The odds are not in Denver’s favor with recent 1-8-1 ATS away slide, but if they want to force a deciding Game 7 at the Pepsi Center on Sunday, they will have to find a way.

Big Boys try to flex NBA muscles

Cleveland and the Los Angeles Lakers earned the top seeds in their respective conferences this season. One team has played deserving of that honor, the other, not so much. Both will hit the hardwood with the same goal in mind, thrusting their will on opponent to either finish them off or to gain the upper hand.

Lake Show in trouble of being cancelled

The Lakers players were telling anyone that would listen their late season doldrums were nothing to be concerned with, once the playoffs began it would be “go” time and they would take care of business.

Oddsmakers weren’t fooled and neither was the public. Los Angeles has a team of mostly self-satisfied players this year, not willing to do what it takes to be great and their visible weakness cannot be masked without all-out effort.

On the season the Lakers shot 45.6 percent from the field, they have not touched that figure once in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is receiving a great of credit for how they are playing defense against the triangle offense, but the fact is the Lakers players are being outworked in trying to run their offense and if say Lamar Odom doesn’t get open on the first option for him to receive the ball, he essentially takes himself out of the play or settles for three-point which is not his specialty.

Odom isn’t the only player with this general indifference, there are many others. It is of little surprise L.A. is 13-25 ATS second half of the season watching this kind of effort.

Kobe Bryant is playing a curious role in this series. Undoubtedly he is more injured that what most know. Other than Game 2 when he scored 39 points with his father in the stands, he at times is not even looking to being offensively assertive and is either trying to get the ball to teammates for them to become more aggressive or he is trying to prove a point by saying “you are either with me or against me” and is disgusted with their lack of performance and is being indignant.

When this has happened in the past Kobe always has an answer, just like this time.

“(Oklahoma City) is a young team that plays hard, that’s playing with house money, so they go in there and let it all hang out,” Bryant said. “It’s a series, it’s a challenge. It’s how playoff basketball should be.” We’ll see he and the Lakers really feel about their situation and are 13-3 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.

Oddsmakers have the Lakers as six-point home favorites with total of 193.5. Los Angeles has won 17 straight games when the series is tied at 2-2 and are 17-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series at any juncture. The Thunder will try to use its growing confidence to pull the upset and have spotted the flaws in Los Angeles and will look to attack once again and are 19-9 ATS as a road underdog this season, losing by less than a point a game (0.9).

This is the late 10:30E conflict on TNT and the Lakers are 11-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.

The end is near

The confidence which the Cleveland Cavaliers play with is flabbergasting. For three quarters of Game 3, Chicago took the action to Cleveland, holding a double digit lead most of the time. The Bulls were the aggressor and it appeared Cavs players were satisfied with their less than full effort. In the four quarter the Cavs came storming back with LeBron James taking over the offense and his teammates knocking down three-pointers, finally succumbing by just two points 108-106, as Chicago made their free throws late.

The most stunning aspect of the close of that contest was the reaction of James and his teammates, not long faces from losing a game they should have won by playing all 48 minutes, but they were smiling, with a almost maniacal grin of “Oh man, we almost got’em, we’ll take care of this later”.

There were no smiles before Game 4 as King James led a tyrant army of mercenaries into the United Center and blew away their Windy City counterparts by 22. Cleveland returns home to end the series and is 18-6 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Cleveland is starting to reap the rewards for trading for Antawn Jamison, who scored 24 points in Game 2. Jamison is highly respected around the league and didn’t come to Cleveland to improve his legacy, but rather to get a championship ring. At 33, Jamison is sensing his basketball mortality.

“This is an opportunity of a lifetime,” he said. “I don’t have another five or 10 years left in this body. The sense of urgency is there, not only with myself but with the rest of these guys. That’s why I think it’s a great fit because we all have the same mentality. We are all trying to accomplish the same thing—right now. We’re not trying to wait until next year or the year after that.” The Cavs have covered 42 of their previous 66 playoff games.

Chicago is also sensing their mortality, about this season. Star guard Derrick Rose missed practice Monday to undergo an MRI on his right ankle and forward Luol Deng sat out with a sore knee and calf. The Bulls are once again a dozen points underdog and hope to hit enough shots to improve on 19-10 ATS record revenging a same season loss.

The Cavaliers will look to polish this series off and most likely face Boston and are 17-7 UNDER after winning by 20 or more points, with average margin of victory 13.9 points for this 8:00E TNT broadcast.

NBA homers have to come thru

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.
Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

Three NBA teams need tasty home cookin'

Over the next two days, the series switch to new locales with the home town fans clamoring for success from the guys in the short pants. A couple of the teams are in desperate straits and need to make something happen or they can start making summer vacation plans. One other squad doesn’t have its best player however can take the series lead with a victory before its loud and proud fans.

Cleveland at Chicago 7:00E TNT

The Bulls played the Cavaliers even for three quarters, unfortunately professional basketball is a four quarters contest and for those that can’t stand the NBA, saying you only have to watch the last quarter, they were nodding their head with pride about Game 2.

Chicago was tied after three quarters but was outscored 35-25 in the final 12 minutes, thanks to LeBron James doing his best Mariano Rivera impression as the closer. (James is well-known Yankees fan) James scored 15 of his 40 points in the final stanza, ruining the Bulls upset bid.
“They call me the closer every time I come in the fourth quarter,” James said. “It’s my time to put the game away or do what I do best and that’s try to close the game the right way.” Cleveland is 14-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

Chicago will receive the energy from its home fans and the Bulls better start rampage from the opening tip, since nobody expects the Bulls to win four of the next five games. One Chi-Town player enduring himself to the locals is Joakim Noah, whose been a force on both ends of the floor and talking a little trash about Cleveland. He’s more than ready for next assignment. (Note picture- Noah not fazed by Zydrunas Ilgauskas Lithuanian mind-probe)

We can't get discouraged," Noah said. "They did what they were supposed to do. We'll have our fans ready to go for the next game and we'll be ready to go on Thursday."

The Bulls are a four-point underdog, with total of 193 and are 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses. Chicago is 13-4 UNDER playing with two days rest this season.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E TNT

This is all fun and new for the Thunder, being in the postseason for the first time as members from the Sooner State. Oklahoma City lost both games to the defending champion L. A. Lakers, but they are far from discouraged.

"I think that our offense was phenomenal," Kevin Durant said. "Our energy on a defensive end was phenomenal. Of course you cannot play perfect defense an entire game. We got a lot of offensive, rebounds and we played hard.

Of course the next step in the progression is actually winning a game and the Thunder gives the impression they are well-equipped to do so. OKC is 14-5 ATS off a road loss and Bookmaker.com has installed them as 3.5-point favorites.

Thunder fans have enjoyed this young team’s rise all year and view this as the beginning of something much bigger and can hardly be disappointed no matter the outcome.

The Lakers were pushed to the end in Game 2, winning 95-92 as 5.5-point favorites, held to 37.5 percent shooting. Kobe Bryant returned to his usual self scoring 39 points, making 13 of 15 from the charity stripe. It’s a rare sight to see Los Angeles as an underdog, especially in a 1 vs 8 matchup and they are 33-18 ATS as a pooch and 10-2 UNDER in this role.

"We're going home to our crowd, which is gonna give us a lot of energy and we're gonna be ready to play," Jeff Green said Tuesday night. His team is 14-2 ATS after a contest with 15 or less assists this season.

Keep an eye on the total of 191.5 with Oklahoma City 12-2 UNDER at the Ford Center off a cover where they lost the game SU as an underdog.

Phoenix at Portland 10:00E NBA TV

Portland looked every bit like the underdog they were supposed to be, being man-handled by Phoenix 119-90 in Game 2 as 8.5-point underdogs. The news however is good on two fronts, a loss is still a loss whether it’s by one point or 29 and the Trailblazers are returning home.

We got a win," Portland guard Andre Miller said. "You don't want to lose like that any time, but we still are motivated. This is a seven-game series. (The Suns) did their job tonight, but we got a game, and it's a series. Now we have to go and try to protect our home court." Portland is 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season.

Phoenix can take pride in understanding and doing what it takes to win as they showed in last outing. They repeatedly ran the floor for easy transition buckets, forced Portland into missing shots with greater defensive intensity (38.2 percent) and spread the ball around with Jason Richardson and Grant Hill being key figures in the victory.

“We were just more aggressive getting the ball up the floor and moving bodies around so they weren’t set,” Steve Nash said, “and they weren’t able to zone it up as well.” That raised the Suns record to 14-4 ATS playing against a team with 60-70 winning percentage this campaign.

Game 3 opened as Pick and Portland has moved to one point underdog with 7-19 ATS record at the Rose Garden after a loss by 10 points or more.

NBA Western Conference Series Outlook

In order to make the playoffs out West you had to win 50 games, something only four teams from the other conference could to. A number of NBA followers believe the Los Angeles Lakers are quite vulnerable in spite of +175 odds of being repeat champions and several teams played much better basketball to conclude the season, leaving the door ajar to speculation. Someone is still going to have knockoff Kobe and company four times to prove the Lakers are not worthy and outside of Lake-show fans, the detractors feel more than one squad is capable. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City

You would have thought the Clippers were getting the No. 1 seed in the West with all the negative talk about the Lakers. Los Angeles has been getting much the same reception as Whitney Houston’s concert stops, nobody’s impressed. Andrew Bynum is not healthy; Kobe Bryant is showing the affects of compounding injuries and his shooting has been off. Derek Fisher can still make big shots, but is having trouble guarding his own shadow and the trio of Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Pau Gasol are noted “thinkers”, not always bringing A-game when needed and wanted. The Lakers have been uninspired for over a month and are 6-10 ATS and have covered back-to-back spreads once since Feb. 11.

Oklahoma City is everything the Lakers are not, young, eager and lacking playoff experience. Phil Jackson lobbed the first salvo, wondering how the NBA’s youngest scoring champ Kevin Durant gets to the line so frequently, insinuating preferential treatment from the zebras. (This from the same coach whose had Bryant and Michael Jordan during his career, I digress) But Durant took the bait and replied, professionally, yet made it more an issue by commenting. The Thunder are not all about Durant, as Russell Westbrook is among the top six point guards in the league and Thabo Sefolosha is undervalued within coach Scott Brooks schemes.

OKC did lose four of last six to draw the defending champs, however they won 50 games (48-34 ATS) and showed uncommon poise with 23-18 and 26-15 ATS road record. The Lakers won three of four, but in only meeting in 2010, the Thunder struck with 16-point shellacking at home over L.A. If the Lakers continue to play with indifference, this series will have some length to it and Ford Center faithful will be loud and proud for first taste postseason action.

3DW Pick- L.A. Lakers (-800) in six over Oklahoma City (+500)

(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio

This marks the fifth time the Mavericks and Spurs will square off in a Texas tussle in the playoffs with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki on opposite benches. Without Bruce Bowen, the animosity has subsided in the last couple of years between these division rivals, but that could heat up again in this series, considering what is at stake.

Dallas had the perfect opportunity to already be a NBA champion in 2006, but gagged a 2-0 lead in the finals against Miami, losing the next four contests. Since that time, owner Mark Cuban has been patient until this season, believing the pieces were in place for title run. This year he jettisoned players he felt were no longer committed to being champions like Josh Howard and retooled roster with the likes of Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood, giving them size and more scoring versatility. Here is what is troubling about the Mavs. Despite winning 55 games and being the second seed, their score differential is only +2.7, the lowest of the Western teams in the playoffs. Dallas is sixth (among West playoff teams) in home court record at 28-13 and they were 30th against the spread at home with 10-29-2 ATS mark.

San Antonio on the other hand manufactured (in the truest since) a 50-win campaign. This is no longer Tim Duncan’s team, his aching knees and aging body are ineffective in back to back games and his post-moves are noticeably slower, not getting off shots like he used to and drawing fouls. That puts the ball in Tony Parker’s hands, but he too has been on the shelf, which led to Manu Ginobili drinking from the fountain of youth and being the leading performer in the second half. The “Spurs way” is next man up and George Hill has been invaluable at guard. In a slower series, this could mean rookie DeJuan Blair could have a bigger impact for San Antonio squad that was 6.3 points better defensively after the All-Star break.

If ever a series had seven games written all over it, this is the one. Let’s go with the upset picking San Antonio, with road team winning four times outright in this physical tight series that marks the end of Mavericks as we know them.

3DW Pick- San Antonio (+135) in seven over Dallas (-165)

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland

For the NBA bettor who prefers to play a streak, Phoenix is the perfect team to match the group Power Station’s 1985 hit “Some Like it Hot”. The Suns closed the season 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) and the two defeats were a five point loss at equally hungry Oklahoma City and failing to ignite at Milwaukee on the last night of four road games in five nights. Their last six wins have been pulverizing, winning by 13.8 points a game. Phoenix tried to move Amare Stoudemire before the All-Star game, but couldn’t find the right compensation. This ended up being the reason the Suns had the best record in the NBA at 23-6 (20-8-1) after the break. Stoudemire was the second half MVP and he and Nash resembled Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll whenever they needed points. Phoenix still runs high-octane offense (110.2 PPG) but plays enough defense (11th in field goal percentage) and has solid core of frontcourt role players who do their job expertly.

It’s unfortunate, a visit this past week to Dictionary.com to look up the word “snake-bit” revealed a picture, that of the Portland Trailblazers. Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla and now Brandon Roy are all lost due to injury. Portland’s one chance is to control the action in the frontcourt and lane area with Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they can maintain a steady flow of points near the bucket, that creates space for Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum among others. The Trailblazers do have depth and were 25-14-2 ATS on the road.

With Roy, this could have been one of the most entertaining first round matchups as Portland had taken four out five, however with the way Phoenix is playing and the Blazers without their best player, chances of upset are greatly diminished. One should not expect Portland to roll over like a dog, they can run with the Suns in short stretches and will look to frustrate Nash with ball pressure and control tempo.

Pick- Phoenix (-600) in six over Portland (+400)

(4) Denver vs (5) Utah

It took 82 games to determine who would be the Northwest Division titlist, with Denver backing in on the last day, as Utah lost at home to the Suns. It will take no more than seven games to figure who has the best team and which is good enough to advance to West semis in this rare postseason confrontation. (Last meeting was 16 years ago)

The Nuggets have been meandering without George Karl on the bench, 6-7 (3-9-1 ATS) in last 13 contests. Denver was third in the NBA in scoring at 106.5 points per game, yet has been held to under 100 points in 11 of previous 15 outings. The Nuggets front office came out at the conclusion of the season and complimented interim coach Adrian Dantley for his fine work, but Denver looks soul-less without Karl calling the shots. Denver is 13-3 ATS the last two years in the playoffs and they continue that streak if Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups exhibit leadership and the bench outplays Utah’s.

The Jazz have two components that will seal their fate either way. Andrei Kirilenko missed final nine regular season games with a calf injury and he is the only Utah player on the roster capable of making life difficult for Carmelo. Carlos Boozer’s fascinating array of moves and shots is predicated on health and his ribs are sore, which could cut his effectiveness. That leaves Deron Williams to carry even a greater amount of the load. He has an outstanding command of the Jerry Sloan’s motion offense and the ball distribution means Williams has to set the offense, not be the main scoring threat.

Utah is 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) in Salt Lake City and 23-17-1 ATS on the road, but falling from potential No. 2 seed to No. 5, losing home court advantage will prove to be too much for unhealthy club that is 1-5 and 1-4-1 ATS in Denver.

Pick- Denver (-200) in seven over Utah (+160)

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

Elderly Celtics in fine betting system

For over two and half months, the Boston Celtics had listened to how old they have gotten, with 17-19 record since Christmas Day and crushing backers with 12-22-2 ATS record in the same time span. Critics of the team thought Boston should replace the Gatorade bottles with Geritol to get more iron and minerals into this aging group. (Blog rumors of Neutrogena use in Celtics locker room for age spots have proven unfounded)

On March 15, Boston (47-26) had apparently had enough of this “old men” talk and started playing basketball as most had expected from them, winning six of seven and covering five times. Doc Rivers club was in a position to make a statement that they indeed were turning the corner, hosting a sizzling San Antonio squad at home as 3.5-point favorites this past Sunday.

Instead, the Celtics were lamentable, missing 13 of 14 three-point shot heaves, shooting 37 percent for the game, on the way to a season low in scoring of 73 points in 21-point thrashing.

Even post-game comments were not about to change people’s perception that this Boston team was turning into the USS Constitution (known as ‘Old Ironsides’), which is stationed in the nearby harbor.

“This does not change our progress,” said 13-year veteran Ray Allen unconvincingly. “You trip up a little here, but it doesn’t change the mission we’re on or the direction we’re heading.”

The Celtics have had over 69 hours to think about Spurs debacle and get ready for one of the young and up and coming teams in the NBA, Oklahoma City (45-28). The Thunder is in sixth place in the Western Conference, led by Kevin Durant and a host of several exciting and skilled players all under 25 years of age. Oklahoma City has been one of finest bets in the NBA all season, ranked third at 43-30 ATS.

Boston on the other hand is play against material, ranked 29th at 30-41-2 ATS, due to incredibly poor home record of 11-24-1 ATS.

Can the C’s turn it around quickly? DiamondSportsbook.com oddsmakers have made Boston 3.5-point favorites, even with Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins listed as questionable and today’s super situation gives them more than fighting chance.

Play On home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days’ rest.

In the last five years, this sweltering system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent and it has been even sharper in the past three seasons at 18-3 against the spread. The outcomes generally have been more comfortable than a Therapeutic Bed, with the home town team winning by 9.6 points per game.

Take a moment or two to review today’s top betting system.

The first week of spring starts

Took it on the chin yesterday with 1-2 day as Texas A&M and Mayland couldn’t pull thru at the bitter end. Today we have our usual collection of Monday NBA systems. Have an excellent trend coming out of the CBI tourney and Sal’s hot and gives us two Free Plays. Good Luck

What I thought today- I happen to catch like three minutes of Colin Cowherd this morning on ESPN radio and this guy has turned into Glenn Beck. He was going on and on about nobody in major markets cares about the NCAA Tournament and that Cinderella’s winning only means lower ratings down the line.

This guy is from the Northwest and now he’s some wise sage about all media living in Connecticut near New York. He was going on saying nobody cared to watch Northern Iowa or Cornell, the ratings were the same as last. Well of course they are Colin you idiot, who knew Kansas was going to be upset and the game was only shown to a portion of the audience in the middle of the afternoon. This guy needs to get his head out of his _ _ _ and just enjoy the tournament instead of big timing everybody with his “worldly knowledge”. I’m done

3Daily Winners is – No.1 the last 10 days at Cappers Monitor
3Daily Winners is – No. 1 the last week at Cappers Watchdog and at My Handicapper
3Daily Winners is – No. 1 in College Basketball the last month at Cappers Watchdog
3Daily Winners is - No.1 in College Basketball for the season (units) at Cappers Monitor

Now on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See NBA article below

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Princeton is 10-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 129.5 or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Sal was 19-6 the last four days in the NCAA’s and the NBA and has double barreled assault today with Oklahoma City and College of Charleston.

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NBA wagering as easy as counting simple numbers

Last week we reviewed the possibilities of what occurs with tired teams, this week we’ll engage in the exercise of NBA squads with no days off all the way to three or days between games for the 2009-10 campaign. As one might expect, teams with roughly 24 hours between games don’t fare well and are generally a losing proposition, though exceptions do exist. It’s a mixed bag for clubs with a day or two off and sometimes, the ATS results might not even tell the whole story! NBA teams with three or more days off are a diverse group, seemingly with no rhyme or reason, but who’s to argue, as long as it leads to a winner! Let’s dive in.

Zero Rest

Among the reasons why the NBA is so difficult to beat wagering on a consistent basis is back to back games. What makes it tougher than say the NHL, which has the same schedule setup, professional basketball is being played with five players for extended periods of time, with usually no more than 10 players seeing the floor for an individual team. Though hockey has six players per squad on the ice at a given time, the shifts are usually no longer than two minutes and as many as 15 players will be skating around the rink for each club during a contest.

This means a player having a bad day with a wife, girlfriend, fellow player (can you say Gilbert Arenas) or coach, could have a direct impact on the game by as much as 20 percent when he is on the floor. Here are the poorest bets one could make this season on teams with no rest. (Note: SU record followed by ATS)

Toronto 5-9, 3-11 ATS
Sacramento 5-10, 4-9-2 ATS

Phoenix 6-9, 6-9 ATS
New York 2-12, 5-9 ATS

Detroit 4-13, 4-12-1 ATS
Cleveland 10-5, 6-9 ATS

The Raptors are especially ugly, losing by 9.2 points per game, with the Pistons misfiring roster nearly as bad at 8.4 PPG. New York and Sacramento are just bad teams, with no rest further enhancing their weaknesses. The Suns are an older team, which would stand to reason why they might struggle in this situation. The majority of the Cavaliers failures have been trying to overcome large numbers from oddsmakers or off big emotional games.

With 30 teams, not everyone fails without rest, some actually succeed, and it’s just the manner in which they do it.

Charlotte 7-8, 10-5 ATS
Golden State 3-10, 9-4 ATS
Milwaukee 10-6, 12-3-1 ATS
Utah 6-7, 8-4-1 ATS
Portland 12-3, 12-3 ATS

The Trailblazers and Bucks are younger teams and they have thrived when confronted with back to back games, winning by 6.6 and 5.2 points per game respectively. The Warriors and Bobcats lack stellar SU records but play closer than what oddsmakers expect them to in piling up spread victories. Golden State has lost by 2.5 PPG and Charlotte by less than point.
Additionally, within this cluster, are more select situations to have a handle on about particular teams. Here is a quick look at the best and worst playing consecutive nights.

Milwaukee (Away/Home) 8-1 ATS
Portland (A/A) 9-1 ATS
Minnesota (A/H) 5-0 ATS
Utah (A/A) 5-0 ATS
Denver (A/A) 1-5-1 ATS

One Day of Rest

This category supports the better teams win at least straight up, with those setting the numbers trying to balance action against premier clubs.

Atlanta 20-9, 17-12 ATS
Boston 20-12, 11-20-1 ATS
Cleveland 27-6, 19-14 ATS
Dallas 22-9, 13-18 ATS
Denver 19-11, 14-16 ATS
L.A. Lakers 23-7, 13-16-1 ATS

Orlando 22-9, 17-13-1 ATS
Phoenix 21-13-12, 23-11 ATS
San Antonio 21-13, 17-16-1 ATS

Utah 21-12, 20-13 ATS

This grouping makes the most sense of any, as a very solid team has advantage of talent, backed with a normal amount of rest. On the assumption all factors are relatively equal, these teams should and do win. Within this, there are nuggets of information to consider.
The Lakers may have losing spread record, however they win these matchups by 7.5 points per game, above their season average of 6.4 PPG, proving those that want to back Kobe and friends are going to pay for them like taking extra baggage on a flight. Boston (+4.2 PPG on the season) is in the same scenario, winning by 4.0 PPG with a day off compared to season average and is really paying the price against the spread.

The exceptions are the Suns and Jazz, winning by 6.1 and 5.3 points per game respectively, more in line with receiving fair market value for their win/loss records. The Hawks are also a fit covering over 58 percent, with a working margin of 4.8 PPG.

One team that is not among the elite, yet has fared well in this position is Memphis at 18-12 and 17-13 ATS, winning by 1.6 PPG.

New Jersey (3-25, 10-18 ATS) fits in virtually every negative aspect of the spectrum, but another squad, Philadelphia, is an equally bad wager at 10-17 ATS, with matching SU record.

Two Days Rest

The next part of the puzzle becomes more specialized, with real winners and losers and some being penalized for who they are.

Cleveland 6-1, 2-4-1 ATS

Dallas 8-0, 7-1 ATS
Denver 7-1, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 2-6, 6-2 ATS
Milwaukee 8-4, 8-4 ATS
New Jersey 0-10, 3-7 ATS
Oklahoma City 8-2, 8-2 ATS
Orlando 4-4, 4-7-1 ATS
Toronto 8-1, 6-3 ATS

The Mavericks have been the class of this bunch, not only with tremendous record, but tearing the opposition apart by 13 PPG. Evidently the Cavaliers and Nuggets have to win by such a large margin also, since their point differentials of +9 and +10.1, only lead to mediocre spread results, again supporting the point that linemakers offer no breaks to public teams. The Raptors and Thunder have thrived with additional rest, being good bets, with the public not paying as close attention to them, and the Milwaukee Bucks are in similar situation. Golden State has been the golden goose as the underdog, covering 75 percent, in spite of only two victories.

Three or more Days Rest

This segment has the fewest amount of plays per team and is the most volatile. How else can one explain the Lakers at 5-0 SU, pounding opponents by overwhelming 14.0 PPG, justify a 2-3 spread record, while Denver is 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, being victorious by 10.2 PPG. Who the opponent is plays into the mix, which one large blowout; combined with several more conventional triumphs can be part of the answer.

The most important lesson to take away from this quadrant is a large amount of rest can either enhance or decline a team’s chances of winning. The extended period of time off might rejuvenate one club, while others might be off kilter without playing and struggle to find there rhythm. Here’s what I mean.

Dallas 1-5, 0-6 ATS
New Orleans 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Philadelphia 1-3, 0-4 ATS
Toronto 4-2, 4-2 ATS

In conclusion, the more you know about how NBA teams perform with variable amounts of rest, the more you put the odds on your side to win bets. This can be as easy as 1 -2 -3.

Sac-Town in Tuesday Totals Play

The Kings have won consecutive games and will try for three in a row, something they have not been able to accomplish since winning four straight Nov. 25 –Dec. 2. Sacramento is again having a miserable season at 20-39, being outscored by 4.4 points per game and are 26th in scoring defense at 105.4 points per game. Among the few bright spots has been rookie Tyreke Evans (he of the well placed elbow) for the Kings, who are horrifying 5-25 on the road (14-15-1 ATS) this season.

Sacramento wants to build a product like Oklahoma City (35-23 SU & ATS), who is one of the up and coming teams in the NBA, led by Kevin Durant. The Thunder has also won two consecutive games, each in blowout fashion (17 and 20 points) and has emerged victorious in 11 of last 13 contests.

“… We have that mindset of trying to be guys that go out and get after it and have that competitive spirit for 48 minutes straight,” Durant said. “That’s our brand of basketball here in Oklahoma City, and that’s how it’s going to be for a long time.”

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma City as 10-point favorites with total of 202.5. Pay particular attention to the total for this reason.

Dreadful road teams, being outscored by three or more points a game, against opponent after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with a total in the range of 200 to 209.5, are 37-11 OVER the last 14 years.

In this situation, the average total score is 212.6 points and this super situation has really been heating up with 17-3 record the previous three seasons. Sacramento is 8-3 OVER as an underdog, while OKC is 8-3 OVER after scoring 100 or more points. Consider this NBA system tonight.

Let's continue the winning on Sunday

We took our record to 17-6 in most recent plays after 2-1 Saturday. We bid farewell to Kyle for now, thanks for the nice run. In his place is Slick Rick, hitting 60 percent this week and he likes a Big East underdog. The Top Trend is 89.4 percent and we have a 31-7 totals play in nationally televised tilt. Good Luck

What I thought Saturday – Will have more to say on Monday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Over on teams like Boston when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, scoring 98-102 PPG, against a defensive team surrendering 102 or more PPG, after allowing 85 points or less. This total system is 31-7, 81.6 percent the last 14 years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Oklahoma City is 17-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning by 7.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 30-18 the last week in all his bets and prefers Marquette with the points.

Disparity rules between NBA Conferences

For a number of years now the Western Conference has been superior to the East. This is easily shown by the fact Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members.
One aspect this year besides the dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 (56.7) edge in head to head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.

As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.

The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their best players while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season primarily beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS.

Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.
The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.

A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.

The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.

Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with 13-6 record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.

Cleveland is the best of the bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., too often, too many points to overcome with 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.

The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.

Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS

You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partners New York, are a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet are about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.

In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.

Hoping for that Super Tuesday

Nice call by Ron of the LCC in his first visit at 3Daily Winners. He has another free NBA play ready to unload today. Our Top Hockey Trend was a winner yesterday, so why not deliver another. The Best System is in the NBA and in the Windy City at 25-5 ATS. Good Luck

What I saw today- In college basketball today, the totals released by oddsmakers are under siege, which is noticeably with such a limited card. Offensive-minded Seton and Villanova went from 163 to 166 and another Big East conflict has Providence and Syracuse moving up three digits from opening number of 166.

Here is a look at what bettors are thinking with the numbers heading downward and conventional wisdom is this would be more smart money than anything.

Towson/Drexel 130.5 to 127.5
Ole Miss/Kentucky 157.5 to 151
SMU/So. Miss. 123 to 119
Mich. State/Wisconsin 126 to 123.5
Northeastern/Delaware 128.5 to126.5
Air Force/S.D. State 119 to 116
Jackv. St./ Tenn. St. 142 to 140

The only side that has seen any significant line movement is Wake Forest going from -7.5 to -6 at home against Miami-FL, who is 6-4 and 5-4 ATS on the road.

In professional basketball, NBA bettors are seeing more defensive game in Cleveland, with the Memphis and the Cavs having been altered from 201.5 to 199. The Clippers and Bulls bash has gone from 195 to 196.5.

All quiet on the ice, with all NHL moves less than 10 cents.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like the Chicago Bulls off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This system chimes in at 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent since 2005.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The Maple Leafs are 0-15 against the money line against defensive teams permitting 2.55 goals game or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron likes Oklahoma City to upend Atlanta on their home floor.

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Young NBA teams earning respect

Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, instead from medium sized markets (except for one) and mostly having a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis.

Atlanta looks to not get tangled in Charlotte’s web

To use a little Stu Scott speak in talking about Larry Brown, the Bobcats head coach, “The man may drive a U-Haul as his top rig with all the stops he’s made, but the dude can still coach”. Since Charlotte was again awarded a NBA franchise, they have been more beatable than a piñata. That was until the oft-traveled Brown found his dream job (for the 10th time) in the middle of North Carolina.

The Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. Brown’s Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”

Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing.

“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).

Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.

How did this happen?

It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.

Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. (Really it’s true) Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of last 13 the last month and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS having won three of their last four games.

Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and they are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.

Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies who are 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City who is 12-3 OVER in road games playing eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.

100 Points meaningful number in the NBA

Breaking the century mark in professional basketball offers insights into many different areas of the game for teams, fans and sports bettors. For those in attendance at an NBA game, the home team breaking 100 may mean a free drink or free food depending on the club’s list of sponsors. For any team, scoring 100 points might lead to a near certain victory, however scoring that many points and giving up equal value on the triple digits side could comprise a win. The NBA sports bettor would have a real edge if he can determine what teams will allow or reach the 100-point threshold, which could build a significant bankroll.

Went thru the complete list of NBA teams and found the teams with the five best records when scoring 100 or more points. (Records are straight up wins)

L.A. Lakers 26-1
Cleveland 25-1
Boston 18-2
Oklahoma City 16-2
Orlando 18-3

The most common characteristic among these teams had nothing to do with scoring, it was points allowed. All five teams are among the Top 8 in fewest points given up. It’s easy to surmise if teams break the century mark in points scored, they are a good bet to not only win, but to cover the spread. Here is their SU and spread records when they do so.

L.A. Lakers 26-1, 16-11 ATS
Cleveland 25-1, 18-8 ATS
Boston 18-2, 12-8 ATS
Oklahoma City 16-2, 15-3 ATS
Orlando 18-3, 13-7-1 ATS

It is not a surprising the Lakers and Celtics have the poorest records in studying these numbers since both are very public teams these days and attract a lot of money, inflating the value of points they are to win by. However, each of the other three teams has a healthy spread record and be counted on to deliver very positive results when ringing up 100 points. A great question would be how can one know when any of these teams will score that many points? More on that later.

Here is something uncovered about these teams that is also extremely revealing, what happens when they surrender triple digits? What we find is these become very ordinary teams that are beatable and just horrific wagers that give away cash almost as fast as Congress.

L.A. Lakers 9-8, 3-14 ATS
Cleveland 8-4, 3-9 ATS
Boston 8-5, 4-9 ATS
Oklahoma City 4-14, 6-12 ATS
Orlando 7-10, 4-12-1 ATS

The most important aspect to remember about these five teams, they are defensive-oriented, while clearly having the ability to score points. They are not like Charlotte or Detroit, who show up in fewest points conceded list, in part because they play a half-court brand of basketball, not conducive to scoring or allowing 100 points. These clubs are primarily favorites and when they allow that many points, it restricts the number of games they can cover the spread, making them extremely poor wager.

This helps lead into area that can be profited from by doing homework on game day. Went back and looked at the spread records of our five teams when they score 100 or more points and permitted less than 100. This is an extremely noteworthy area of profit.

L.A. Lakers 12-4 ATS
Cleveland 15-1 ATS
Boston 8-2 ATS
Oklahoma City 11-0 ATS
Orlando 8-3 ATS

Add these five NBA squads together in this situation and you are looking at a sterling 55-10, 84.6 percent ATS record, highlighted by the Thunder’s perfect mark. While there is no precise method to determine when this actual event will occur, oddsmakers can certainly lend a hand from a predictive nature. For example, say Oklahoma City is playing Sacramento and is a nine-point favorite with total of 197. In this situation, those setting the odds are telling us the Thunder should win the game 103-94 over the Kings, fitting the exact needed criteria to cover the spread and extract a winner.

In no way is there a hint that anyone will hit above 80 percent in following these teams given set of circumstances that unfolds after a game has been played, rather find ways following this simple premise to put the odds in your favor.

The same would hold true for these five clubs if they are matched against opponent where they might be a smaller road favorite with a total of say 209. If the Lakers were favored by five at Indiana with such a total, the score would show L.A. winning 107-102, if the contest plays out correctly and Kobe Bryant’s team has covered less than one out of four of such a setup.
One hundred points could lead to hundreds of profit dollars.

All Systems go on NBA Monday

It’s a special day in the NBA celebrating Martin Luther King Day. This has led a blitz of basketball most of the day, starting in early afternoon and going late into the evening, especially east of the Mississippi. A dozen different opportunities are presented to the sports bettor as the league honors a great man known for heroic deeds. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Detroit (+5.5,192) at New York 1:05E MSG

The Pistons have followed losing 13 in a row with three straight triumphs against New York squad that has dropped four of five. In this situation, look to play on road team having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent having fallen four of their last five games. (63-28 ATS)

Portland (+1.5, 192) at Washington 1:05E NBA-TV

The short-handed Washington Wizards have fallen four of last five games and this afternoon will be their fifth game in a week. Home teams with a winning percentage of 25 to 40 percent, playing their 5th game in 7 days are 62-103 ATS since 1996.

Sacramento (+6, 196) at Charlotte 2:05E

The Charlotte Bobcats have won four in a row, seven of eight and covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games. Sacramento on the other hand has lost three straight (not shooting over 38 percent), 10 of 12 and absolutely buried backers with 2-9-1 recent spread record. Naturally, the Bobcats would be the play correct? In the NBA, look the other way as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 8-24 ATS the last three years after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games.

Oklahoma City (+5.5, 196) at Atlanta 2:05E

The Thunder is proving to be one of the best young teams in all of the NBA, even producing a winning record. Oklahoma City is off an impressive wipeout of Miami 98-80 and road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a home win by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season, are 34-11 UNDER since 2007.

Milwaukee (+6.5, 197.5) at Houston 3:05E

This is the last stop on the Bucks six-game road trip that has seen then manufacture 1-4 (2-3 ATS) record. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee plays OVER, as road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games, against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more on two or more consecutive contests, are 35-12 the last five seasons.

Philadelphia (-1.5, 205.5) at Minnesota 3:35E

The Sixers and Timberwolves are a couple rumpled offensive teams, ranking 21st and 25th in points scored respectively in the league. In spite of their misgivings in placing the ball in the baskets, teams like Philadelphia off consecutive Under’s, playing in a matchup involving two squads that average 92-98 points per game, with a total over 200, are 33-7 OVER since 2005.

New Jersey (+9.5, 196) at L.A. Clippers 3:35E YES

In this battle of can’t dial up long distance vs. can’t guard from far away, something has to give. The Clippers are 27th in three-point accuracy and the Nets are 27th in stopping made baskets from beyond the arc. Home chalk that is poor three point shooting team (33% or less) who commit 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers a game, against lousy three-point defense (36.5% or higher) who average 14.5 or fewer TO's a contest are 13-35 ATS since 2004.

San Antonio (-1, 189) at New Orleans 3:35E

Like all good teams, San Antonio has hit the pot hole in the road, throwing the alignment off, which has caused them to lose last two road games. It appears this should not be a deterrent from considering play on the Spurs, as road favorites off two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of 60-75 percent are 32-14 ATS the previous three years.

Chicago (-2, 219) at Golden State 4:00E WGN

The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season by far, winning four in a row and eight of last 11, covering the number an imposing nine times. Road teams like Chicago after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against opponent going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three outings are 25-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Phoenix (+2, 225) at Memphis 5:35E TNT

The Suns lead the NBA in scoring at 109.3 points per game, but have managed to lose the first three games on their road excursion. The last contest was particularly brutal, losing by 26 points at Charlotte and they will have one more chance to win one time on this trip. Teams scoring 103 or more points a game, who trailed by 20 or more points in their last game at halftime, are 32-10 ATS the next time out.

Dallas (+5, 197) at Boston 8:05E TNT

The Mavericks were blasted at Toronto 110-88 yesterday afternoon and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive tries. This doesn’t set up well for Dallas as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 25-57 ATS.

Orlando (+6, 202) at L.A. Lakers 10:35 TNT

Last season Orlando had plenty of magic on the road, this year, not so much. They are off back to back losses to Denver and Portland by 18 and 15 points respectively. The Lakers on the other hand crushed the Clippers by 40 points Friday night, making exactly half their shots. Teams off blowout win by 15 points or more facing opponent after two straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 13-33 ATS the last five seasons.

Top Monday NBA Systems

The first Monday of the New Year in the NBA finds four games on the NBA agenda. All season we have been providing winning information on this day of the week, with our top situation that matches up with each NBA contests. Here is a look at the top systems for today. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta at Miami (+1.5, 195.5)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit their first slump of the season, losing three of four, however, tonight’s opponent and division rival Miami is also carrying three game losing streak. When a situation like this arises, look to play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, if they have winning 60-75 percentage on the season. Over the last three seasons, this system checks in at 32-12 ATS.

Oklahoma City at Chicago (-2, 194)

When it comes to three-point shooting, it’s hard to matchup two worst teams than these two. Oklahoma City is 26th (31.7 percent) and Chicago is tick behind at 31.6 percent. Even without this as part of the offensive arsenal, look to Play Over in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams, with the Bulls an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense like the Thunder (14.5-16.5 TO's). In the last five seasons, this system is solid 82-45 OVER.

New Orleans at Utah (-7.5, 196)

The Hornets don’t have a number of offensive weapons, which is why they rank 19th in scoring at 98 points per game. They travel to Utah off a pair of close home victories over Miami (95-91) and Houston (99-95). It has been best to play against teams like New Orleans who are decent on offense (98-102 points per game) against a defensive team like the Jazz (92-98 PPG), after two straight wins by six points or less. Since 2005, this system is 33-9 ATS, 78.5 percent.

Portland at L.A. Clippers (-4, 189.5)

Any rest in the NBA is looked upon as being good, considering the grueling schedule. This can refresh the legs and help any team player better defense with more energy. In this Western Conference conflict, check out the UNDER, since home teams are 38-18 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, after successfully covering the spread in two or more games, playing four or less games in 10 days.

NBA Monday Systems

With college football taking a short sabbatical before the bowl games commence, the NBA will take a greater role in the minds of the public. We start a new week with increased focus on the hardwood and besides its comforting to know former NBA referee Tim Donaghy says he refused to make calls to affect games even if it meant he lost money and it angered those paying him. Thanks, Tim. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Denver at Philadelphia (+6, 216)

The Nuggets have won three in a row and seven of last eight (6-2 ATS), with its top-ranked offense scoring at least 100 points in every single contest. Tonight is Denver’s second road tilt on a four-game trip and they are healthy road favorites. When a team is giving 3.5 to 9.5 points after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games, they are nicely profitable 30-11 ATS since 2005.

Portland at New York (-4.5, 203)

It not like the Trailblazers are not used to it, but at some point you have to wonder about big men in Portland. A generation ago, Sam Bowie was supposed to lead Portland and he suffered an injury-plagued career. Now Greg Oden is taking on the same characteristics, out again for the season, this time with broken left kneecap. Portland once again has to move on, however tonight is not the most favorable position. The Blazers stopped Houston 90-89 Saturday and teams that won last game by six or less points and face opponent that has scored 100 or more in four straight contests are 15-40 ATS the last 13 years.

Golden State at Oklahoma City (-7, 222)

There are positives building for the Thunder, sporting winning record (10-9) with a nucleus of young talent. One of Oklahoma City’s strengths in the first quarter of the season has been defense, allowing 95.4 points per game (7th). The last few games they have lost an edge on that end of the floor, allowing teams to break the century mark in three consecutive contests. In comes Golden State who ranks second in the NBA in scoring at 109.8 points per game. Here we find underdogs averaging 103 or more points a game on the season, facing opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games, are 38-15 ATS.

San Antonio at Utah (-1.5, 191.5)

As usual, the Jazz are among the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5 percent, second only to Boston. Utah shot the ball well in Minnesota on Saturday night, but was horrible defensively in allowing the Timberwolves to convert 57.1 percent of shot attempts in 108-101 defeat. This could benefit the Jazz tonight, as teams that shoot 48 percent or higher on the season, after a game allowing a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher are 27-7 ATS, winning by over six points a game.

Bounce back Tuesday

Got our faces rubbed in the dirt with 0-3 Monday, let’s hope we can bounce right back. We have a NBA system that 24-4 ATS and off to great start this season. The Left Coast Connection is solidly behind one NBA team and we have a very sharp angle in the NHL. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I thought yesterday – Props to Paul Buck for his analysis on the Monday Night game for paid customers. In short, he played Pittsburgh because of the quarterback difference, right on the nose.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Chicago off a close home win by three points or less, first half of the season. Since 2005, this NBA system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent including 2-0 this year.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The St. Louis Blues are 4-20 in home games after scoring two goals or less in four straight games since 1996.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC has slam dunk on Oklahoma City (6-0) to cover against Sacramento.

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Doug's Thoughts from The Angry Chair

It was extraordinarily peculiar to see four wild card road teams open up as favorites last week and all but Atlanta held, with a deluge of money coming late on Arizona which saw them close as -2 home favorites at most wagering outlets. What struck me was the Indianapolis Colts and their performance in losing to San Diego in overtime.

To a large degree, Indianapolis was a fraud of a team even manufacturing a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season. They started slowing with Peyton Manning coming back from medical procedures, not having him mentally or physically ready to start the season. They had Christmas well before Dec. 25, as Minnesota and Houston gave away certain victories with fool-hardy play.

Of the 12 wins the Colts managed, they were hardly dominating, winning eight by a touchdown or less. During the broadcast of the wild card game, it was brought up Tony Dungy has taken the Colts to seven straight playoffs in his seven seasons in Indianapolis. No question that is a notable accomplishment, but has it REALLY been that successful a run? Dungy inherited a quarterback who has become a three-time MVP, which made his job a lot easier, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, he’s had potential Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Jeff Saturday and very good players like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. I’m not suggesting Dungy is a bad coach, nonetheless has he and his teams reached their potential?

In four of his seven playoff appearances, it has been one and done for the Colts, three times as favorites, like last Saturday. If you remember, the reason he was asked to leave Tampa Bay wasn’t because he was terrible person, rather the failures losing in the very first playoff game three years in a row from 1999-2001. Maybe the Buccaneers weren’t ready to win, yet the coincidence of them winning the Super Bowl the next year after he left is striking.

Contrast that with Andy Reid, who has a like/hate relationship in Philadelphia (who doesn’t for that matter). Reid makes little effort to be likeable and has seen his share of family issues on the front page of untold newspapers. Yet, with last week’s win at Minnesota, the Eagles have won seven straight (5-2 ATS) first games in the postseason.

Dungy does have a Super Bowl winners ring and Reid doesn’t as a head coach, but purely in the football sense, especially for a sports bettors like you and me, I’d rather have Reid coaching on my nickel than Dungy, who has lost first playoff game seven of 11 times as head coach.

Spoke to a noted college basketball handicapper back in December and me mentioned the Big East as conference that could produce a number of upsets. Much like the mythical beast “Hydra”, the Big East is a multi-headed monster, with nine teams in the Top 25 this week. In Greek mythology stories of Hydra, you cut off one of the heads of the beast and another appears, which is what is likely to happen in the Big East all season. Thus far favorites are 11-2 and 8-5 ATS in conference play; however the grueling affects of this league will surely have more underdog winners in the coming weeks.

I have to admit I haven’t looked at Oklahoma City much concerning betting, since I’m not a big supporter of wagering on teams that have no chance to win. Seeing the loud rumbling noise accompanying a lighting discharge (thunder) squad has the worst scoring margin record in the NBA at -8.0 points per game, I can’t lay down the cash on OKC very often. I was mildly surprised to learn after being bowl games intensive the last few weeks (making a few NBA wagers here and there) Oklahoma City was 21-13-1 ATS, however I wasn’t stunned considering how many points they typically receive.

One team that has me befuddled is the leader in making money in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. Having lived in the land of brats and beer for years (only place I’ve ever heard of having a regional neighborhood called “Piggsville” and not have negative connotation), I’ve always had a soft spot for Bucks. Milwaukee is mere 17-19, with heart-thumping 24-11-1 ATS record. What I find most intriguing about the Bucks spread record is nearly half (9) of their losses have been by 10 or more points. Take away those games against the spread in which they are 2-7 ATS, that means in the rest of all of the games Milwaukee has played, they are 22-4-1 against the spread which is remarkable. From the handicapping perspective, right now, if Milwaukee looks like they might get whipped, either play against them or pass, otherwise, they are definite Play On team. (This last paragraph made Fox's Ben Maller's NBA rumor page)