Baseball Series Wagering - Twins at Royals

The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.

Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.

These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.

Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)

Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.

“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.

"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”

The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.

The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.

Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.

In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com.

“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”

3Daily Winners Pick: Minnesota

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125

Baseball Series Betting- Kansas City at Minnesota

With the exception of Cleveland, the American League Central standings are tighter than a pair of Mariah Carey jeans. Two of the teams in the division will be going toe-to-toe for three games when first place Kansas City tries to hold on to slim lead over .500 Minnesota. The Royals roll into the Twins Cities taking three of four against Toronto and are feeling pretty good to start May with 12-10 record, since they have been without their closer Joakim Soria. The right-handed fire-baller has not pitched since April 22 at Cleveland because of stiffness in the back of his right shoulder. Manager Trey Hillman said, “I’d say we'll have him back for the Minnesota series, that’s what I’m hopeful of." Kansas City has a few missing pieces due to injury, however they have survived on pitching, allowing the fewest runs in the American League at 3.7 per game.

Minnesota doesn’t feel too bad to be in their position, without one its big bats in the lineup. Catcher and reigning AL batting champion Joe Mauer is scheduled to make his 2009 debut. Mauer started the season on the disabled list and is key component to the Twins offense. Minnesota is 23rd in runs scored at 4.2 per game and manager Ron Gardenhire understands Mauer’s value. “When he’s not in the lineup and not in the field handling the running game and everything, you miss those things,” Gardenhire said. “He’s an All-Star, and, you know, probably the best hitter in the league. So, yeah, you miss that a lot.”

In the first game, Bookmaker.com has Minnesota with a decided edge, making them -170 money line favorites with a total of Ov9. The reason is Kevin Slowey (3-0, 4.44 ERA) of the Twins is facing Sidney Ponson (0-3, 5.79 ERA). Slowey started slowly, but has only given up three runs in last two starts over 15 innings. The righthander does not throw heat, nonetheless has excellent arm motion, making his pitches difficult to detect. The Twins off a day of rest are 16-4 in next outing.

Ponson was brought into Kansas City to hopefully be fifth starter and innings-eater. He’s only had one real bad game among his four starts and pitched six innings or more in three of his outings. Though seldom associated with winning, Ponson and former teams are 32-18 in May during his career. Against the Twins, Ponson is 11-3, his most wins against any club, with a 2.69 ERA. But he's just 5-7 at the Metrodome, including a 1-4 mark the one year he pitched for the Twins.

Slowey is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) vs. Kansas City and Minnesota is 26-11 at home when playing against a team with a winning record.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The second game has a compelling pitching matchup. The Royals Brian Bannister had a horrible 2008 (9-16) campaign and spring training proved to be more of the same and was sent to Triple-A Omaha. Since being recalled, Bannister has been lights out with 2-0 record with miniscule 0.69 ERA. Bannister’s stuff is a little above average, but as he proved in 2007, he’s capable of having winning record. He will be opposed by Glen Perkins (1-2, 2.48). The Twins lefty lacks overpowering pitches, but to date has solved the long ball conundrum, allowing no home runs in four starts after surrendering 25 a season ago. Perkins has pitched eight innings (all at home) three times already this season keeping hitters off-balance. Kansas City is 12-4 in Game 2’s, but have lost last five Saturday starts by Bannister. The Twinkies have won last four of Perkins starts against winning teams and are 9-1 if he pitches the middle game of the series.

Game 2 Edge: Minnesota

Coming into the series, the Royals were 8-1 against teams with winning home records and they are keeping fingers crossed Gil Meche (1-2, 3.77) can make scheduled start. The K.C. ace lasted just 3 2/3 against Toronto, suffering from lower back stiffness, which caused his pitches to be up and was riddled for five runs on seven hits. Meche has said his back has been bothering him since March and it was significantly worse in last outing. Scott Baker (0-2, 9.82) has had a miserable start to the season, giving up seven home runs over 8 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the year. Against Tampa Bay, he kept the ball in the yard and struck out season high of seven, but still suffered the loss. Watch for how K.C. does in Saturday’s contest, with Minny 10-21 if opponent scored five or more runs in previous game.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Contacted Hurricane Bill of Playbook.com to get his feelings on the series. “This should be a low scoring-series with both teams averaging just around 4 runs per game. Nice advantage for the Twins not having to face Greinke (pitched Wednesday) and possibly not having to face Meche (Sunday start is in question due to sore back). Also, All-Star closer Joakim Soria (sore right shouder) still may not be 100% (one appearance since 4/13) and that could come into play in a low-scoring series. Huge pitching mismatch for the hosts in Game 1 of this three-game set as the underrated Kevin Slowey hooks up with the pathetic Sidney Ponson.”

Would have to agree with Hurricane Bill, and see Twins taking opener and like the fact Perkins pitches so well in the Metrodome. Take Minnesota in series wager for upcoming weekend.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Kansas City +140, Minnesota -180

3DW Pick: Minnesota

2009 Record – 1-2