Dual in the Desert of Unbeatens

What is great about Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.

In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn’t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.

How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU’s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.

Coach Gary Patterson’s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here’s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, “Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team…….BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams”.

This does not signify that TCU won’t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.

What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname –The Assassin.

Alas, Boise isn’t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.

Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State’s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school’s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.

DiamondSportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year’s 46 points in San Diego contest. We’ll keep with our Monday night theme. We’ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.

Boise State covers if they can match TCU’s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB’s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.

TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson’s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn’t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson’s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It’s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.

Bowl System – Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)

Can Nevada's Three-headed Monster upset Boise State?

The WAC title is on the line along with potentially a BCS berth in the Fiesta Bowl for Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS). After several beat downs by Boise State, Nevada has lost 69-67 in triple overtime and 41-34 the last two years to the Broncos. Are the Wolf Pack ready to pull the upset this season?

Since 1999, Boise State is 69-2 SU at home with 44-17 ATS record. Coach Chris Peterson is aware his defense allowed more yards than usual in a couple of games, but chalked them up to just contests that turned into shoot-outs his team won and covered handily. Another positive development is the Broncos red zone offense, which has been stellar in recent weeks after providing pedestrian results most of the season. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has been incredibly efficient, throwing 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions. The Broncos average 41.3 points per game and are 25-6 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight contests.

After starting the year slowly on offense, Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) has been molten in last eight games, averaging over 51 points per game. The Wolf Pack running game is the finest in the country at 373.2 yards per game, led by QB Colin Kaepernick and his running mates Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. During this eight-game winning streak, they have averaged 446.6 yards on the ground and posted 43 rushing touchdowns. They have to be encouraged the Broncos allowed 320 yards rushing to Fresno State and 514 total yards to Idaho. Nevada however is 2-8 ATS against ranked teams.

One aspect not being discussed, but is very important is the defenses, as Boise State ranks 15th nationally and Nevada 85th. With how efficient the Broncos are on offense, it would seem the only way the Wolf Pack stop them is by forcing turnovers. That thought process is a problem, since Moore and Boise State have committed 10 turnovers all season. Coach Peterson’s club is 10-2 ATS at home after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

DiamondSportsbook.com has seen Boise State go from 10-point favorites, all the way to 14 and now coming down again, with total of 70. Nevada’s explosive offense is 12-4 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game and 16-6 OVER as a road underdog.

Boise State is 9-0 and 8-1 ATS facing Nevada and is 37-19 against the spread as WAC favorite of 10 points or more.

This WAC mega-encounter begins at 10:15 Eastern on ESPN2.


Note-The System, Trend and Free Pick will return tomorrow.

Will the Boise State Broncos Go Unbeaten?

For the above question, we’ll find out very early if this is truly a possibility, when the 14th ranked Broncos host the 16th ranked Oregon Ducks. Boise State is unanimous choice to win the WAC this season and is the early season darling from the non-BCS schools to possibly pluck another BCS berth when the bids come out in December. Consider the track record of Boise State coming into the season.

Boise State has had three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five years and is 55-9 in all games since 2004. Faced with oddsmakers’ numbers just begging the sports bettor to play the other side, the Broncos are 33-25-1 against the spread in that time period.

In games played on the “Smurf Turf” blue carpet at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is 64-2 and 40-17 ATS the last decade, which includes 49 in a row during the regular season. Boise State returns a dozen starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who broke unto the scene last year as a freshman. In truth, coach Chris Peterson might have a team equal to or better than the 2006 squad (which was 13-0 and knocked off Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) next season.

The Oregon Ducks are not to be taken for granted just because they have a new coach in Chip Kelly. With just ten returning starters from last year’s surprising 10-3 squad, the ranking appears a trifle inflated, however three components help justify the number.

Oregon might not average 41.9 points per game this upcoming season, however, will still have ample firepower with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls. The junior quarterback is far from classic passer, but he’s accurate and is powerful runner and is listed as All-Pac 10 QB in several preseason publications. Speaking of powerful, 240-pound LeGarrette Blount is one blunt object in the open field. The architect of this high-powered offense is coach Kelly, whose been the Oregon offense coordinator. The Ducks are 27-5 ATS in first road game, including covering nine of last 10.

Bookmaker.com has Boise State listed as 3.5-point home favorite, down from opening number of 5.5, with total having risen to 64. We checked in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com to get is opinion on this anticipated contest and Boise State’s chances of going unscathed during the regular season.

“I feel like Boise State will get by Oregon at home and cover the number. Boise State is incredible at home with 66-6 SU record and 42-18 ATS since 1992. Last year the Broncos beat opponents by an average of 40.7 to 8 at home. Chris Peterson is in his 4th year as head coach of Boise State and has led them to a 35-4 overall record. Boise State wins this one.
I would also consider the total; with Oregon is 7-0 to the Over when playing WAC opponents.

As far as Boise State going undefeated this year, I'm going to have to say no. They should have a tough time when they play in Fresno State but I think they will actually win that one in a nail-biter. The one game I see them losing will be when they travel to Tulsa on October 14th. Tulsa was undefeated at home last season and will give Boise all they can handle and then some.”

This is the second game on ESPN Thursday night, which will start at 10:15 Eastern and Oregon has revenge on their minds after last year’s 37-32 home upset as 10.5-point favorites to the Broncos. Masoli told a Eugene television station during the offseason that the loss was “embarrassing” and that this year he and his team would “take it to (Boise State).”

Boise State’s first test could set the tone for 2009 campaign.