In search of Thursday layups

After a few not so hot days, came back strong with 3-0 Wednesday, taking record to 142-83. Today we have a Top Trend that is strictly perfection and the LCC has another Free consensus play. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – Brett Favre might have other problems on his hands besides playing football, literally. Read here.

The GUARANTEED Plays were absolutely correct with Atlanta last night. Tonight I have another GUARANTEED WINNER on the docket ready to increase your bankroll yet again. This play is packed with winning information and you’ll be in relaxed position early and often.

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Free Baseball System -1) Not one good system worth anything today.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The L.A. Angels are 12-0 after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 6-0 consensus on the Philadelphia Phillies in South Florida.

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The end of the line for Favre?

Well Brett Favre has reportedly retired again. I like most have had about as much as this as I have of Snookie (gosh where would they ever find another one like her in New Jersey, except maybe by crossing the street).

It’s really a challenge to give him the benefit of the doubt since he’s had more retirements than Cher. All these antics have left me without the warm and fuzzy feeling I used to have for FAV-RE having attended his first game coming off the bench for Don “Magic Man” Majkowski on Sept.27 1992. Now 285 consecutive regular season starts later, it might be over.

Internet reports have oddsmakers scrambling to adjust odds on the Vikings and the poor folks that had Minnesota Over 9.5 for season win total, well find another Futures wager to hopefully break even.

No matter your feelings, he was one of the all-time great quarterbacks and to do what he did last year is incomprehensible at 40. If this is truly it, time will heal all wounds and he will be celebrated again in Wisconsin and throughout football.

I still have to wonder however, if Minnesota starts 2-2 or 1-3, does Commissioner Gordon, aka Brad Childress, launch the Batman signal in the sky (likely a large No. 4), with Dallas, at Green Bay and at New England the next three games to save Metropolis or Minnesota?

What are the Betting Possibilities for Super Bowl XLIV

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.

Time to start winning streak this Monday

Got whacked good yesterday and look to rebound in a hurry. Paul Buck has a Free Play in the NBA. The Top Trend is perfect and involves one of the Big Monday games. The Best System is 84.4 percent, but you will want to read more. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – Though the San Diego Chargers have enjoyed success against the Indianapolis Colts the last decade, the fundamental difference in the coaching philosophies has been on display the last two weeks. The Colts have coaches that can isolate and fix a problem, in this case, the New York Jets blitzing defense, and make it work in their favor. As seen, New York picked up right where they left off against San Diego, sacking Peyton Manning for losses the first two series. However, OC Tom Moore, Manning and OL coach Howard Mudd made quick and effective adjustments, which allowed the Colts to take over the game.

As expected, Darrelle Revis took Reggie Wayne out the game and New York had a solid game plan for Dallas Clark. Instead, Indy started shortening routes and made the Jets secondary start chasing diagonal patterns across the field. Manning started doing more three-step drops and getting rid of the ball, something the Chargers never did.

The offensive line went from man on man passing blocking to more a zone wall, being able to catch or knock off Jets pass-rushers with greater effectiveness. Spreading the Jets defense out more effectively allowed running lanes for Indianapolis running backs. In the end absolutely outstanding in-game adjustments which set up the Colts for a chance to win another Super Bowl.

I’ve read more than few comments from Packers fans relishing Brett Favre’s untimely interception and while I agree as does Favre it was unfortunate throw, the entire Minnesota offense has to be held accountable for their failure to advance.

Simple-minded announcers will point to the fact that statistics lie when determining the outcome of some contests, but this game couldn’t be accurate from the handicapping perspective about the outcome.

First downs – Minnesota 31-15
Total yards – Minnesota 475-257
Rushing yards – Minnesota 165-68
Penalties- New Orleans (9-88) Minnesota (5-32)
Turnovers – Minnesota 5 to 1

Troy Aikman – Ending words with - in’ (ex. - tacklin’), lost track after 50 in the third quarter, sorry, had nothing to do with outcome.

I thought Adrian Peterson would have a big day, but his reckless style of running killed Minnesota. FOX had a number of great replays that showed when A.P. is cutting, juking or just trying to get into open space; the ball separates from his body, letting him become an easy target.

You can knock Favre, but if the other Vikings players do their job throughout the game, or the mix up on the previous play with 12 men on the field hadn’t cost Minnesota five yards, where a running play could have still been in order for field under 50 yards, who knows. I’m not a Favre apologist, I’ve been as tough on him as anyone for all his antics the last several years, but I admired his courage, since I don’t think many quarterbacks could have taken the punishment he did and still finish the game, let alone having a chance to win in OT.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On a good shooting team like Denver (45.5-47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 percent) past the midpoint of the season, after three straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent. I really like this 27-5 ATS system, however no Carmelo at least has me leery.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas is 11-0 ATS playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.5 points a contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck presumes Utah will continue to play well and Phoenix will keep playing lousy.

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Vikings at Saints Preview

Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees. That sets the stage for what should be a highly entertaining NFC Championship encounter. In interviews this week, both quarterbacks have expressed the belief they were destined to be on these particular teams after believing they were no longer wanted by a previous employer.

Favre has enjoyed the ride this season, being in a place we wanted after rightfully or wrongly feeling his services were no longer required in Green Bay after losing NFC title game two years ago. Whether it’s the motivation of winning another Super Bowl and going out on top like John Elway did (something he’s always craved) or sticking it to the Packers organization, or both, the 40-year old quarterback has played with a sense of urgency, knowing his football clock is ticking.

Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.

Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is 3.5-point underdog with total of 53.5, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe it’s because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, he’s noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.

Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson can’t get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.

Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFL’s best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.

If the Vikings can’t generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the “Who Dat” talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.

In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. That’s not to say Brees can’t have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.

The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they can’t allow the league’s top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.

New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.

For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.

Are Jets and Vikings good Money Line plays?

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

Cowboys at Vikings Preview

Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff.

After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won’t be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.

Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.

When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre’s ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.

The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.

Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.

The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.

Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with DiamondSportsbook.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.

Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.

The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as 2.5-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn’t the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.

Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)

Vikings look to sink Chicago's season

Formally known as the Purple People Eaters, Minnesota captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons—playing a 14-game schedule—starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the league’s elite franchises.

Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bay’s lost in Pittsburgh giving them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late ‘70s. Only two current Vikings—Brett Favre and Pat Williams—were alive when it last happened and they’ll try to secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.

Speaking of No. 4, he once again made himself the center of attention by refusing to exit last week’s loss to Carolina. Thus heading to the Windy City, Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) has unintentionally given ESPN a number of storylines heading into its last Monday night telecast.

Though Favre and coach Brad Childress have reportedly kiss and made up, questions have to remain, especially in the Vikings locker room, where players have to wonder who is really in charge. Enough players will back Favre, while others will support the coach. No matter who backs who, Minnesota backers are impassible with their team 5-22 ATS in final road of the regular season.

Favre has been remarkable, no matter what his age, as the Vikings have a had a top 10 offense all season and are fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Minnesota’s outstanding season has in part been because of how they played in division, showcasing a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record in NFC North games.

Minnesota got a potential belated Christmas gift, with New Orleans losing a second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to Tampa Bay and losing in overtime 20-17, leaving ajar the door for Minny to be the top-seed in the NFC if they win out and the Saints falter at Carolina next week.

Chicago (4-10 ATS) fans couldn’t have been happier this past off-season, they finally got their franchise quarterback, one problem; he needs to be able to throw the ball to somebody. Jay Cutler has thrown for over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but been picked off a league-high 25 times. Chicago receivers are arguably the worst in the NFL (good luck trying to find ones that are worse) and the combination of poor route-running and Cutler trying to force throws have sunk Chicago.

The Bears have fallen like the winter temperatures to 5-9 by losing six of its last seven games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. Chicago has become THE play against team having dropped seven in a row against the spread. The Bears are 2-16 ATS this month as underdog versus team that is off SU and ATS loss.

In the previous matchup, Chicago had no answers for Favre, who completed 32 of 48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses—one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe—came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.

The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to 1998. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, coach on the hot seat Lovie Smith has seen his team at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in this campaign.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Minnesota as eight-point road division favorite, with total of 41.5. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS as North Division visiting favorites and is a torpid 2-13 ATS in December as road chalk. The Vikes are 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. If Chicago has an ounce of pride, they should play well after another dismal effort, on home turf against rival with playoffs ahead of them. The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field after posting 10 or fewer points and are 8-0 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Minnesota covers if they have the kind of game plan that has them jumping all over the Bears early. Get Adrian Peterson wide, play action pass deep and use Shiancoe over the middle. The Vikings running game has produced 62 or fewer yards in two of the last three weeks, this is opportunity to fix things against 25th rated run defense. The defensive front four can dominate the Chicago offensive and keep Cutler’s miscues coming. Above all, Childress has to convince his team to play 60 minutes and finish their work, otherwise they could fall victim like the Saints or almost what happened to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Chicago covers if they can make Favre uncomfortable in the pocket. Over the last few seasons, the former Southern Miss product has not played well outdoors in the cold. After 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in November, Favre has just three TD’s and four picks in the final month of 2009. It’s going to be up to the defense to raise their level of play and force Vikings into mistakes. Chicago talk radio has brought up OC Ron Turner as a big part of offensive issues and Da Bears can’t be too quick to abandon the run, as long as they are within two touchdowns. Cutler is a good play-action passer, don’t leave him without options. Chicago must dominate the special teams to control field position.

Monday Night System – Play On a division team that outgained its opponent in earlier game by more than a 100 total yards. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Week 8 NFL Options

The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn’t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It’s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it’s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week’s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.

Keys to the Game-

The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he’s as off-target as he’s been the last two weeks, it’s usually because he strays from fundamentals.

At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn’t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won’t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won’t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Giants -1, 44.5

St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX

The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that’s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)

Keys to the Game-

Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he’s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that’s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.

3DWLine – Detroit by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Detroit -4, 43.5

Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.

Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.

3DWLine – Baltimore by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -3.5, 41.5

Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan’s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)

Keys to the Game –

This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he’s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.

This will be Henne’s first road start and Ryan’s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.

3DWLine – Jets by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5

Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre’s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It’s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau’s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.

Keys to the Game-

If Brett Favre said he’s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny’s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.

Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4’s jersey starting in the first quarter.

3DW Line – Green Bay by 6

DiammondSportsbook.com Line – Green Bay -3, 47

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

We’ve all heard veteran NFL players talk about the league as “just a business”. If you think of the National Football like say a McDonald’s, you have 32 franchisees within its framework. While Mickey D’s would never allow certain bone-headed people to be in charge of their operations, on Sunday, we saw the differences in a well-run franchise and one’s that should be going out of business or at least hanging signs “Under new ownership”.

The slogan “Pride and Poise” associated with the Oakland franchise is hilarious today and should be replaced with “Polluted and Pitiful”. On Sunday, the Raiders were down 28-0 before registering a first down. JaMarcus Russell is setting new standards for quarterback play in the NFL; even Ryan Leaf will soon be forgotten.

When Al Davis moves on to the big black and silver cloud in the sky, he will have ruined a legacy of innovation and excellence for decades, by not knowing when to step away and being a meddler. Oakland’s ability to overpay for unworthy talent and ridiculous draft choices is now looked upon as “well its Oakland”. As written by Len Pasquarelli of ESPN, of the Raiders 56 viable possessions (not including drives with under two minutes in the half) they have 34 series that lasted three plays or less and 40 that were for five snaps or fewer.

Contrast that with the Giants, a well run franchise, with coach Tom Coughlin as head coach. Coughlin had the good sense to reinvent a part of himself and an underachieving team responded by winning a Super Bowl and has been an annual contender for years. New York was easily more than a two touchdown favorite and the word out of Giants camp was Coughlin was preaching all week not to take the Raiders lightly, stay focused and play our game. New York’s diligence in listening was rewarded with several starters not playing more than two-thirds of the game and virtually all the reserves saw considerable action in 44-7 pasting.

The same was true in St. Louis, as certain folks believed Minnesota might be flat on short week and playing road game against winless Rams. The Vikings went off as 10.5-point favorites and whether they were ready to play or not, it was impossible to tell because of the Rams ineptness. St. Louis is another franchise that has been run aground and at least has made an attempt to change with new people in all keys management positions. But with a shocking lack of talent, this isn’t one of those Miami Dolphins turnarounds, this will take time.

Whatever your opinion of Brett Favre, give the Vikings front office their due, they are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) for the first time in six years and pegged the person they believed could make them a true Super Bowl contender.

Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota and the Giants all know what lies ahead for 2009 and their perspectives are very different.

You had to be really impressed with Atlanta coach Mike Smith and how his staff wisely used the bye week. The Falcons used new toy TE Tony Gonzalez like a child, throwing to him over and over again in the first few games, making their home-run hitter and budding star Roddy White an afterthought. Smith had QB Matt Ryan intent on throwing the ball on the perimeter; against what were thought to be very good San Francisco corners. Ryan was on target and White caught eight passes that he turned into 210 yards in Falcons flushing of the Niners 45-10 as one-point underdogs. Interestingly, the money came all Sunday morning on Atlanta, starting the day as 2.5-point underdogs. Next Sunday’s game with Chicago is tantalizing.

While Cincinnati is well-known for its frugal methods (cheap in the real world) they deserve accolades for staying with coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have had a series of injury-plagued seasons and lacked the depth to replace with quality players. Carson Palmer, either being injured or playing hurt, has cost them in two of the last three seasons. Cincinnati has played five games with each contest being decided by a touchdown or less, but at least they are finding ways to win with rededicated Cedric Benson on offense and more aggressive defense. The Cats host Houston and they are 5-13-2 ATS as non-division home favorites.

In the first half, the Dallas Cowboys players where shaking their heads after every bad play, a real sign of each player on his own page. Yes, they sucked it up and came back and defeated Kansas City in non-cover 26-20, but when you consider Oakland defeated the Chiefs in four quarters, that’s a real cause for concern. We’ll see how much it means after their bye week.

I’m convinced the Houston Texans will never be more than a 9-7 team and hardly ever worse than 7-9 with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Houston’s game against Arizona sums up Shaub in a nutshell. The Texans never scored in the first half, trailing 21-0. Shaub finally got in sync with his receivers and Houston scored 21 unanswered points to tie the score at 21. With a chance to drive his team to take the lead, Shaub stared down his receiver like he was looking at Megan Fox, and frequently burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted the pass for a Pick Six. Shaub did drive his team back down the field for tying score, but threw a jittery pass in the end zone and missed open receiver on great play call. The Texans are in the midst of playing four of five on the road and chances are they are just as likely to be a good bet as bad. Next up is Cincinnati and Houston is 44-44 ATS since joining the league against the AFC.

Surprised the Raiders aren’t trying to make deal for Derrick Anderson after he was 2 for 17 and Cleveland still won and covered. To Anderson’s credit he actually completed one more pass making his completion percentage 15 percent, it just happen to be to Buffalo player. Cleveland ended 10-game losing streak (1-8-1 ATS) at Buffalo and heads to Pittsburgh where they are 1-9 (3-7 ATS) since becoming the Browns again in 1999.

Coach Dick Jauron and his offensive staff are clueless. They acquire Terrell Owens and have no idea how to get him the ball. The Bills are like somebody who always fries steaks in a pan, because the meat is usually cheap. Somebody buys them a sharp new grill and some beautifully tender porterhouse steaks to grill up. Instead, what do these people do with delicious looking meat, what they always, fry it in the pan. Unless Buffalo miraculously wins its next three games before the bye, I wouldn’t stray too far from the phone if I was Jauron, who is 4-13 and 6-11 ATS since opening 4-0 in 2008.

Nice Mix for a Tuesday

We ended up 2-2 for our NFL plays and forge ahead towards another week, with a nice variety of sports forthcoming. On the football side we have a Top Trend that has never lost. We have strong consensus who wins Game 163 tonight in baseball. The Best System around is in the NHL and you have to consider it even so early in the season at 86.2 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Brett Favre can still dial it up when completely focused. Though receiving strong criticism on blogs and forums, how could John Gruden and Jaws not be impressed with Favre’s performance? Whether he’s capable of doing this in December or January is another discussion. As many things as Aaron Rodgers seemingly does right, he has to start getting rid of the ball. Any top level quarterback is not going to be sacked eight times, period. It’s great to want a be a hero and make plays down the field, but you only hurt yourself and your team by being somewhat oblivious to offensive line deficiencies. The Packers are 2-2 and the game plans of the Packers coaching staff has helped make this a .500 team to date.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like Montreal when the total is 5.5, off a road win by one goal against opponent off a road win scoring four or more goals. Since 2005, this system is 25-4, 86.2 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) As shown below, Troy is 7-0 ATS after committing three or more turnovers.

Free Baseball Pick -3) At latest count, over 80 percent of LCC members were betting the Twins and just over 60 percent wagered on the Over.

Guaranteed CFB Tuesday play from Paul Buck who is 29-18, 61.7 percent betting college football sides this season.

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All Favre all the Time

In case you haven’t heard, President Obama has made this Monday national “Brett Favre Day”, as a way to celebrate the future Hall of Famer and everyone can quit their jobs, only to return the next day since they had a change of heart and time to think about. Make no mistake; while Green Bay and Minnesota is a heated rivalry known primarily in the Upper Midwest, it takes on a national meaning this Monday Night.

Like the graphic ESPN showed Saturday night, can you imagine Derek Jeter in Boston uniform, Larry Bird playing for the Lakers or for longtime college football fans, what about Woody Hayes wearing a blue and maize tie with a Michigan hat. Some things in life aren’t supposed to be yet, Joe Montana wore a Kansas City uniform and Emmett Smith played in Arizona before calling it quits.

The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. The Packers (2-1 SU &ATS) and Vikings (2-1 ATS) will be playing for more than just Brett Favre, when they get together on Monday. The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week against San Francisco. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. Minnesota trails in the all time series 49-45-1, having lost five of last six, but is 19-8 ATS in home games after a win by six or less points.

Since the day Aaron Rodgers fell on draft day to the Green Bay Packers, his professional career has had a peculiar path, through no fault of his own. The next chapter is written tonight and he would love nothing better than to be the star that leads the Packers to victory in this arresting contest. Unfortunately, Rodgers has had to have more moves that a salsa dancer, since the best blocking scheme the Green Bay offensive line has come up with is the “look out” block, with Rodgers sacked 12 times already. The Packers are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games.

The wagering public has been hitting Minnesota hard, moving them from three-point favorites to 4.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 45.5. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at the MetroDome. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.

Green Bay covers if their run defense holds up. The Packers are allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry; however teams have shown no fear in taking them on, averaging 33 attempts. This means keeping Adrian Peterson in check, no easy task. The offensive line has to perform. For all the talk over the last few years about the Vikings run defense, Mike McCarthy’s schemes have worked pretty well. Keep Rodgers from getting rug burns and attack Minnesota secondary with three and four receiver sets. The Vikes are notorious for weak special teams, win the “under the radar” stat decidedly to put offense in better scoring positions.

Minnesota covers if they do what everyone else has done to Packers O-line, abuse them. Jered Allen probably hasn’t slept all week thinking about how many times he could sack Rodgers. Green Bay’s run game isn’t strong enough to offset their lack of ability to move the chains without the pass. One word said three times- Attack, Attack, Attack. The Vikings have gained 407 yards rushing in last two games against the Pack, why shouldn’t they do it again, especially if Favre can put them in right play against run blitzes. Feed Peterson like a hungry tiger. The pass rush isn’t going to get Rodgers every time, the secondary has to make sure they stick with Packers’ receivers, as Rodgers is well-respected for ability to throw deep accurately.

This will be a spectacle.

Monday Night System – Play On a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. (26-9 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn’t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team’s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York. (Coach Fisher a strong candidate for "What not to wear" TV show)

Carolina can’t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He’s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn’t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn’t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in “Lost”. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don’t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here’s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn’t be 2-1 if they didn’t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

NFL Opening Day and other News

Another great opening day of NFL action. Speaking of great that was yesterday’s 3-0 record. Today we have a terrific NFL system that is 82.8 percent against the number. The Top Trend follows the exploits of a great MLB pitcher on his home turf. Slick Rick attacks football, in a way seldom seen here with Free Play. Good Luck

What I thought today- I read where Brett Favre said he wouldn’t let his streak of consecutive games get in the way of Minnesota winning if he was hurt or not playing well. Brett, please, for the love of god just shut up. I used to think the world of you, but enough already. Your super-sized ego didn’t stop you from wanting to continue to play football. Besides wanting to play, you have to carry vendetta against Green Bay, but now all you care about is not being a problem as an almost 40-year old quarterback. Brett how stupid do you think we are? You can’t quit playing; only a broken leg or right arm will keep you out and EVERYONE including you knows it. Give it up; the act is way beyond tired.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) This is about as simple as gets. Play On NFL favorites when playing on a Thursday. This system is 24-5 ATS, 82.8 percent and believes the Steelers are the play.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are is 19-3 in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked up two more winners yesterday and has a two-teaser, Clemson +11 along with Titans +12.5.

Paul Buck has a Guaranteed Play in the NFL tonight.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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Let's Rip it on Tuesday

A not so hot 0-2 Monday leaves a bad taste in the mouth, but a new day is like mouthwash. The Best System is 83.9 percent which is encouraging. Can a perfect trend really lose two days in a row, I hope not. And a hot better backs a heavenly MLB team tonight. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – I must be the only guy in America who didn’t think Brett Favre’s block was illegal. He went into the guy’s hip and it wasn’t his fault the defender was paying no attention to him. Agree or disagree.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting this Saturday and on Sunday once the NFL begins, I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on those days. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Yankees with a money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less four straight games against opponent after a loss by four runs or more. Since 2005, this system is 52-10, 83.9 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joel Pineiro and St. Louis are 10-0 in the second half of the season winning by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) A member of the LCC who prefers privacy is on 12-2 baseball betting roll and likes the Halos with Ervin Santana to play some sweet music in Seattle.

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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Friday NFL Wagering Opportunities

The Week 2 NFL preseason card thickens with a trio of wagering options to start the weekend. The showcase contest is Tennessee at Dallas, which will be on Fox starting at 8 Eastern. Kansas City will make the trip north to Brett Favre country (now west of Wisconsin) to face the Vikings and former division rivals Atlanta and St. Louis will collide near the shores of the Mississippi River. (Picture made you take a closer look, admit it)

Tennessee at Dallas

The world will get its first look at the brand new Cowboys Stadium, with its retractable-roof, built for reported price of $1.15 billion, which is big even by Texas standards. Dallas gave their usual desultory first game effort (2-5 SU and ATS), in being whacked by Oakland 31-10. Quarterback Tony Romo should see increased playing time in preparation for the regular season. Dallas will look to control Tennessee’s running game since they are 0-11 ATS when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Tennessee already has wrapped up two wins in August and would gladly take a third if the Cowboys want to go thru the motions again. The storyline for the Titans is this, will Vince Young be able to build on last week’s crisp performance (9-14 for 131 yards, TD)? DiamondSportsbook.com has Dallas as three-point favorites with the total at 37 points. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog, while the Cowboys are 2-9 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.

Kansas City at Minnesota

The circus has come to Minneapolis, not the Big Top with cotton candy, thrills and chills, no its Brett Favre, this time wearing a Barney-colored number four. Whatever the reasons for Favre’s return, coach Brad Childress has believed since last season the former Packer and Jet quarterback is better than what he’s had on his roster. Sage Rosenfels is now the backup and in all likelihood, Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty are playing for a roster spot.

The Vikings defense bottled up the Indianapolis last week (142 total yards) and is 5-1 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Minnesota is a three-point favorite on the home turf and will sell more tickets for this encounter than anticipated.

With last week’s 16-10 home loss to Houston, Kansas City is now 5-16 and 4-16-1 ATS since 2004 in the preseason. New coach Todd Haley and Chiefs front office won’t say anything publicly, but there has to be a few furrowed brows after Matt Cassel was outplayed by both Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen in Week 1. Kansas City has failed to cover six straight Week 2 assignments and is 3-12 ATS off a home loss.

Atlanta at St. Louis

New Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be on the home team sidelines in St. Louis for the first time Friday. The always intense former defensive coordinator was pleased with the play of the offensive line that helped generate 6.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries in 23-20 win as four-point road underdogs against the New York Jets. Everything isn’t perfect in Rams-land however, as starting quarterback Mark Bulger fractured pinkie on his throwing hand in practice this past Monday, and is presumed out two weeks. That means the reins are turned over to Kyle Boller as first choice, along with Brock Berlin and Keith Null. With top receiver Donny Avery already out bettors have pounced on Atlanta, taking them from one-point underdogs to three point favorites.

The Falcons backups couldn’t hold a 23-10 lead midway thru the third quarter at Detroit and were passed on the last play of the game 27-26. Matt Ryan and the rest of the first team are expected to see extended minutes this week; however the play of the Atlanta reserves is of note if the Birds face injuries during the regular season. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road and are 6-1 against the number playing the second of two consecutive road encounters.

Trying to stay hot (even in Phoenix) on a Wednesday

A sweet 3-0 day helps building our momentum. Today’s Best System is 88.8 percent, but could be nerve-racking with pitching matchup. Top Trend looks like blowout, will it be? Sal is on another sensational role; check his Best Bet for Wednesday. Good Luck

What I found today – http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9956006/The-world-according-to-Favre

Now on Twitter at: twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more who are hitting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a torrid starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less the last five times he toed the slap. This will be intriguing with Lee and Haren, but system shows 40-5 record since 2005 and suggests play against the Snakes.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 12-1 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20, winning by 2.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 3-1 yesterday including another winner here. Today he expects the Angels to be heavenly, even in Cleveland.

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Taken down The Man this Wednesday

Got blistered pretty good with 1-3 day. Hopefully we can climb back on the winning bandwagon, with a quality system that is 80.7 percent. This hopefully will lead to Top Trend being a winner from a top-line hurler. A new member of the LCC offers his first ever Free Play, hope it’s a winner. Good Luck and a lot of hope I’m asking for.

What I though yesterday – I’m glad Brett Favre decided to retire. I had the pleasure of watching him twice a year or more in person for much of his career and he gave me plenty of thrills. Though as adults, we don’t have many sports heroes like when we were kids, he’s probably the closest thing to one for me in my adult life. The last several years of shanigans (my opinion) have placed a foul taste in my mouth and others about No. 4 and I’ve had no trouble ripping him for what he’s done, in spite of having several publicly painful things happen to him. I now applaud him for stepping aside and instead selling for Sears and other opportunities that will come his way.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Arizona, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are typical NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a capable starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This system is 21-5 since 2005, 80.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) There are trends today with higher win percentages, but this one caught my eye. Roy Halladay and Toronto are 41-4 vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs a game on the season, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle of the LCC is 8-3 the last three days and believes the Mets with will keep playing well, and clip Colorado.

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