AUGUST’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

By Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL pre-season whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott *12-6
The Minnesota starting pitching has been mediocre for a large part of the season and Scott Baker has been part of the problem, with ERA hovering around 5. This would be the right time for the right-hander to pitch up to expectations with the Twins looking for another AL Central crown.

Bush, Dave * 8-3
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush begins this month with below average career record of 53-64, however he has flourished in the dog days of summer. With fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he has to have his variety of breaking stuff working to be effective, which it is usually this month.

Hernandez, Felix * 13-5
Last season Hernandez was 19-5, with WHIP of 1.114 and hitters batting .227 against him. This year his WHIP to start this month is exactly the same, opponents are hitting ever so slightly better at .232, yet with an inferior team, he is 7-8. With run support, King Felix could have typical August.

Kazmir, Scott * 12-5
On the DL, expected to have rehab assignment the middle of August and could return if all goes well.

Lincecum, Tim * 12-6
Being a two-time Cy Young winner, there are not many bad months. Though still extremely effective, the ERA is up over three this season, with strikeouts down and opponents batting average up to .240 (compared to .221 career). Let’s see if Lincecum pitches to usual high standards with San Francisco back in pennant race.

Oswalt, Roy *13-3
Always a strong closer at the end of the year, Oswalt got the energy boost he needed being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pettitte, Andy *13-5
On the DL since July 19, Pettitte has been soft-tossing without discomfort and could well be back before projected 4-5 weeks initial outlook to continue August dominance.

Pineiro, Joel * 12-2
In the midst of solid 10-7 season and career innings pitched, the Angels right-hander is out six to eight weeks with oblique strain.

Sabathia, C.C. * 14-4
The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts, proving he is primed for another awesome August.

Santana, Ervin * 10-4
Always a quality No. 3 starter, Santana has often been an important cog in the Angels winning AL West titles. While this might not occur in 2010, this Dominican dandy is poised for another sharp month.

Shields, James *12-6
If Tampa Bay is to catch the Yankees, getting better pitching from James Shields would make a difference. His 9-9 record with 4.79 ERA is far cry from 2007-08 when he was 26-16, with ERA a full run lower. Time for Shields to find a way to avoid bats.

Wainwright, Adam *10-3
The Cardinals have a pair of aces with Chris Carpenter and Wainwright and the Georgia native could be on to 20-win campaign if he has usual stellar August. Opposing teams are batting a career low .219 against him.

Wolf, Randy * 10-3
The lefty has found the difference between Miller Park and Dodger Stadium to be severe this season. Two areas demonstrate the difference for Wolf this year compared to last. In 2009, opponents hit .227 against Wolf, presently they are at .269. His strikeout totals this season are more reflective of his poorer career years with 87 to begin August, compared to 160 last season. Will Wolf turn it around?

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach * 2-8
When opponents are batting over .300 against a starting pitcher for his career, the front office should look in the mirror and question themselves.

Guthrie, Mark * 5-13
His ERA is up nearly a run in last 10 starts, explaining 1-6 record. When Guthrie struggles, it’s because the fastball comes to the plate like it is on a string and breaking stuff lacks bite to keep hitters off balance. Pitching for Orioles doesn’t help.

Hernandez, Livan * 4-11
His ERA is creeping up, yet still highly respectable 3.22. For most of his later career, Hernandez has tended to wear down as the year progressed, making him play against pitcher as part of his M.O.

Olsen, Scott * 2-9
Has made one start since being placed on the DL in May and difficult to determine how the left-hander might do for Washington with only 20 total appearances the last two years.

Owings, Micah * 3-8
Optioned to Triple-A Louisville by Cincinnati on July 28.

Robertson, Nate * 3-8
Released by Florida on July 27.


Doug Upstone of 3dailywinners.net contributed to this article.

MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Rays

With the summer slipping into August this weekend, the baseball pennant races start to take shape with more meaningful games over the next two months. What better way to start building the momentum than with the two best teams in baseball. The first place New York Yankees (65-36, +7.8 units) head south to visit Tampa Bay (63-38, +6.5), who trails by two games in the loss column.

The atmosphere should be electric with all three games sold out and for New York; they have other side bar stories. This is the Yankees first team visit since the passing of George Steinbrenner who resided in Tampa. Alex Rodriguez will continue his elusive quest for home run No. 600. When asked if he feels pressure after failing to connect for a long ball in seven straight games, A-Rod answered this way. “We’re winning, so this is fun,” Rodriguez said. “I’m focusing on something more important: a pennant race.”

The Rays picked the right time to get hot having won six in a row and a continuation of such play would jettison them into first place by the end of the weekend. “I’m sure there’s going to be a vibe,” Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. “They’re playing well. We’re playing well. It’s going to be interesting. I know we’re going to be excited to play.”

The pitching matchup has two young hurlers. Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), after a brilliant start has had rocky moments of late, being tagged for five runs or more in three of previous five starts. Location has been Hughes downfall and the Yankees are only 14-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. Online sports betting outlets have New York as -107 ML wager, as the Yankees seem to thrive against top notch competition with a 12-3 record in road games when playing against teams with a 62% or higher win percentage in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay is 100-48 in home games against right-handed starters the past three seasons and sends Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32) up the hill. Davis has gotten in a nice groove with three consecutive victories and 2.11 ERA. “Every series is important, but this is a big series for us to go out and win some games against them to stay up there with them,” Davis told the Rays’ official website. “If we can do that, then we’ll be in a good situation.” The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts against New York this year and A-Rod has two jacks off of him.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The Rays are hoping outfielders B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are close to 100 percent after missing time this week with sprained ankle and lower back stiffness respectively, getting ready for New York. The second game of the series will also feature Matt “no-hitter” Garza (11-5. 4.08), who faced the minimum 27 batters (one walk) his last time out. Garza was able to work effectively up in the strike zone against depleted Detroit lineup. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Garza’s starts at Tropicana Field, where they have won 10 of 11 coming into the series.

The Bronx Bombers arrive in St. Pete’s having won eight of 11 and have split eight meetings with the Rays. Manager Joe Girardi’s club began the series 31-20 in the visiting gray uniforms, thanks to being victorious in 16 of last 21 contests. Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54) started the season on shaky ground, but has since stabilized with 8-3 mark and 3.16 ERA. The Yanks are 36-16 in last 52 and have won four of last five Vazquez road starts. The Yankees right-hander is 5-5 (4.71) in last 10 starting assignments against Tampa Bay, with Carl Crawford batting .368 against him since 2006. Garza is 1-3 (3.26) vs New York and A-Rod (.467) and Nick Swisher (.500) have been the most troublesome batters he faces from that lineup.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale from the Trop has C.C. Sabathia (13-4, 3.15) on a major roll. The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in last 10 outings and is 14-4 in August of late. He’s been tough all year on right-hand hitters, as they are batting only .234 against him. New York plays great all the time including during the day, with 25-12 record as they prepare for this TBS 1:30 Eastern tilt.

Tampa Bay will start James Shields (9-9, 4.79) who also possess quality August numbers with a 12-6 record. Shields has to start missing more bats, with opponents hitting .281 against him (.266 lifetime) and he is on career path for home runs allowed, already being taken deep 22 times. The Rays are equally effective in day games with 20-10 record and are 11-9 to commence the weekend as underdogs.

Game 3 Edge: New York

New York has won 26 of last 44 conflicts between these teams and is 12-9 at the Trop the past three years. Both teams are at the top of their games, both respecting, but do not fearing the other, which makes for fascinating series.

I’ve hit five straight weekend series wagers and though I’d like to see Tampa Bay win, I’m betting New York and here is why. Sometime next season I’ll write an article about this, but the Rays have double digit hits just once in past seven tries, which has me believing they are living off of great pitching. New York can match Tampa Bay in this area and shutdown their attack. Coincidently, the Yankees have nine or more base knocks in seven of previous nine games, suggesting they will score more runs and takes the series.

Sportsbooks series odds: New York -120, Tampa Bay -110

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

Thursday Selections and Big News

Yesterday was fabulous with 4-1 overall record with only loss coming in extra innings. That takes our record to 121-66, a bedrock solid 64.7 percent. Tonight’s Top Trend is run line selection and Kendall offers another terrific play for Free. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – The GUARANTEED Picks are back and we have one in the American League tonight.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Earlier today there was a system on Florida (which ended up being correct), however nothing of note for tonight, thus passing.

Free Baseball Trend -2) C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees are 13-1 against the run line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season, winning by 5.8 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall knocked two in a row and goes for three straight expecting the Giants to bag Arizona.

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We look for more Winners this Friday

Sweet goodness, another 3-0 day lifts us to 110-57. This evening we have an 81.8 percent system in the AL Central and our Top Trend is majestically perfect. Though Ron of the LCC isn’t perfect in a lot ways (gotcha Ron), he’s been that way around here for a long time and has another top Free play. Good Luck

What I thought today – The Yankees and Braves are very interesting run line options tonight, just not for me.

I almost forgot. I saw on Twitter that Gary Busey said he had worked with Mel Gibson and in his opinion, Gibson is indeed a racist. I thought what better person to judge character than a whack job like Busey.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Tribe, who are below average AL hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a team with a solid bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or lower, playing on Friday. I’m not sure what this day of the week has to do with system, but no arguments with 43-10 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The teams C.C. Sabathia has pitched for the last three seasons are 15-0 vs. clubs averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the year.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron pushed his streak to 58-15 with two more winners yesterday and is thinking the Astros will sky-rocket to victory.

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MLB Series Wagering- Rays at Yankees

The two best teams in baseball square off in the Bronx to begin their second half of the season. Tampa Bay (54-34, +2.7 units) trails New York (56-32, +7.4) by two games and would like to close the gap even further with a series triumph. The Rays have played with the off-kilter intensity of Mel Gibson, not in the present form, but like his character in “Mad Max –Road Warrior”. Tampa Bay has far and away the best road record in baseball at 28-14 (+12) and they are flat out fantastic in the division with 12-2 mark, which includes a pair of wins May 19-20 at Yankees Stadium.

For New York fans and many of the players, this series starts with a melancholy feel, as legendary public address announcer Bob Sheppard and “The Boss” George Steinbrenner, both passed away this past week. “I think he’s a father figure to everyone that was in our organization in the past or present, because he really took care of his players,” Jeter said. “You know, whether it was a player that’s on the team now or someone that played for a week 30 years ago.

The Yankees will wear patches on their uniforms for the remainder of the season to honor Steinbrenner and Sheppard.

New York returns home like they are just out of the microwave, winners of eight of last nine. Among the hottest Yankees is pitcher C.C. Sabathia (12-3, 3.09 ERA), whose been delivering as consistently as UPS. Sabathia is 8-0 since June began with miniscule 1.81 ERA. In fact, in his last 38 2/3 innings, the big lefthander has permitted four earned runs. The Bronx Bombers are -175 money line favorites at online sports betting outlets and no wonder with the big man 15-0 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

After scuffling for awhile, the Rays are back online, also winners of eight of last nine outings. Tampa Bay deserves notice for 12-1 record vs. an AL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.20 or better this season, nonetheless, James Shields (7-9, 4.87) is curious choice as starting pitcher for series opener. Shields is 1-8 with a 7.00 ERA in his last nine outings and 2-7 with 5.54 ERA in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

“I’m happy that we’re playing them right out of the gates,” Shields told MLB.com. “We’re right behind them right now and it’s a good chance for us to pick up a couple of games on them.” With those words in mind, you can’t help of thinking of Ace Ventura saying “All righty than”.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The team in pinstripes has the third best home record in baseball starting this series at 28-13. For those seeking sports betting tips, New York is playing 40 of final 74 games at home, which will give them definite edge along with inflated money and run lines. A.J. Burnett (7-7, 4.75) will again pitch on this FOX Saturday afternoon affair. Two weeks ago Saturday, he was dreadful at Los Angeles, lasting just three innings and permitting six runs. That concluded a stretch of five June starts with an ERA over 11 and the Yankees coaches deducted Burnett needed to start using his change-up more and this has brought immediate results, allowing two total runs in last two starts covering 13 2/3 innings. The Yanks are 43-18 in Game 2’s, but have won just one of Burnett’s previous six starts.

Jeff Niemann (7-2, 2.77) has arguably been manager Joe Maddon’s most dependable starter all season, particularly on the road. Niemann is 4-0 (the Rays are 8-0 in 2010 when he starts) in visiting uniform and Tampa Bay is inconceivable 17-2 in the second game of a series when the 6’9 right-handed toes the rubber. The Rays best bet to win is grab the lead before the eighth inning since New York is 4-26 when trailing after seven frames and 48-4 when leading.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale matches a pair of lefties, one representing the past and present, with the other already an All-Star with unlimited future. Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.70) is 38 years old and is getting better with age, being an All-Star again this season. Pettitte is extremely knowledgeable hurler, quickly figuring out what pitches are working from his repertoire and keeping hitters off-balance. Pettitte and teammates are 12-3 as favorites this year and 22-10 in day games. Skipper Maddon would be wise to load lineup with right-hand sticks as opposing LH hitters are batting .167 vs. Pettitte’s tosses.

The Rays counter with All-Star starter David Price (12-4. 2.42) who is fulfilling the promise as Tampa Bay’s top pick of the 2007 June draft. The 24-year old has all the pitches, including a tight slider and improving change-up. He and the Rays are 6-0 in the division and 6-1 in the day time.

Game 3 Edge: New York

This should be a highly competitive series given how each team has played. Tampa Bay has 3-2 lead this season and somewhat surprisingly, the last six meetings have gone Over the total for those betting on sports. Both clubs are exceptional in their roles of home and away, yet the visiting team has taken five of past six. Despite this, it’s very difficult to bet against the Yankees at home, thus will be betting them for this weekend.

Sportsbook series odds: Tampa Bay +170, New York -220

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

World Series Preview

Most any year, the New York Yankees being in the Fall Classic automatically makes it special. Whether you love them or hate, the team in the pinstripes is an attention-getter as 26-time World Series champions. Because of their success, New York fans believe they should be in the World Series every year, however as long-time Yankees Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada would explain, wearing the uniform doesn’t guarantee you make it this far, let alone win as they have failed to do in last two trips.

New York is favored to win another title, which doesn’t mean anything to the defending World Series champion Phillies, who are attempting to be first repeat champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. Some teams are intimidated by the Yankees uniforms; don’t expect it to be Philadelphia, who has proven to be a deserving champion.

Pitching counts in the postseason and so does power. New York was the top home run hitting team in the big leagues with 244 and Philadelphia was the best in the National League at 224. Both teams play in homer-friendly parks, which were the top two in home runs allowed. The last time the two top hitting home run teams collided was 1926.

For those that prefer top quality pitching, it hardly gets better than Game 1 of the series. C.C. Sabathia is 12-1 since August (Yankees 14-1 in his starts) and has sick 1.19 ERA in three postseason starts. Sabathia will face someone who dressed in the same locker room as him just 16 months ago in Cliff Lee. The other former Cleveland Indian is 12-4 since July 16, and has an even lower ERA in his three postseason starts at 0.74. Both teams better start swinging from the start, as each pitcher has 20 strikeouts and three walks in the playoffs. This will be just the sixth time in World Series history, two former Cy Young winners faceoff.

For history buffs this from Jayson Stark of ESPN. Philadelphia is attempting to be just the third National League team in the last century to win back-to-back World Series, both previous teams to do so defeated the Yankees. It should also be reported five others tried and failed. These teams last met in the World Series 59 years ago. This is the third time since MLB went to division play that the defending champs faced the team with the best record in baseball, both times the champions went on to win again.

Nuts and Bolts- Philadelphia has been the best team in baseball on the road virtually all season with its 51-34 record. The Phils are 3-1 in the postseason in traveling uniforms. On June 22, the Phillies had a 10-22 record at Citizens Bank Park. Since that time, they are a torrid 39-15. Philadelphia is 31-16 against left-hand starters and 73-48 in games decided by two or more runs. New York quickly adapted to new surroundings in the Bronx and has 62-24 home record, winning by impressive 1.3 runs per game, the second best in MLB. The pitching hasn’t mattered; the Yankees are 70-43 against RH pitchers and 40-18 versus lefties. The Yanks are 99-48 as favorites and even better than Philly in games decided by two or more runs with 86-43 record.

3DW Take: For the second year in a row, Philadelphia is an underdog in the World Series. The Phillies beat New York two of three this season and are not going to fear the Yankees. New York has the better starting pitching which has carried them for the most part in the playoffs. Beyond Mariano Rivera, the bullpen has been unnerving and Joe Girardi has been widely criticized for over-managing.

Philadelphia will piece together starting pitchers and really needs Cole Hamels to return to last year’s postseason form immediately. The Phillies bullpen has caused a few anxious moments in the playoffs, yet has escaped unscathed. For the Phillies to win they need to win both of Lee’s starts and Hamels has to pitch effectively.

The Yankees scouts have done uncanny work in having New York players in just the right spots on the field. In the series win over the Angels, lost track after 10 line drives outs, with Yankees players always perfectly positioned. If the opposing team has made a base-running blunder, New York has been able to steal an out each time. There is no lineup that has 27 harder outs in baseball.

All the talk in baseball is always about pitching this time of year, but the opposite is also true, as batters go into slumps. In this series, look for the team that continues to hit, especially for extra-base power. The Yankees should win in six, but the value of a team being defending champions, an underdog role to create even greater focus and being able to win on the road is too much value to pass up. Philadelphia in a classic series.

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com: Philadelphia +165, New York -195

Wednesday October 28
Philadelphia (Lee) at New York (Sabathia) 7:57 EDT

Thursday October 29
Philadelphia (Martinez) at New York (Burnett) 7:57 EDT

Saturday October 31
New York (Pettitte) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:57 EDT

Sunday November 1
New York (TBD) at Philadelphia (TBD) 8:20 EDT

Monday November 2
New York at Philadelphia if necessary

Wednesday November 4
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Thursday November 5
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Yankees and Angels ALCS Preview

While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. Each team has a number of offensive strengths, yet both have weaknesses the other team can exploit.

New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.

Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia’s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be “big time” on the various teams he’s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.

A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on “stuff”, yet it always doesn’t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett’s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.

This is a different Angels’ team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The “hack at everything” team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin’ the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.

It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn’t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.

When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O’Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it’s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3’s on most teams. That’s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI’s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he’s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won’t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.

Offensive – American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th


Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don’t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

Cleveland woes could continue against rugged system

When last season looked like a washout for the Cleveland Indians, they did what they could to trade off assets like C. C. Sabathia and Casey Blake, in looking towards the future. The way Cleveland has played in 2009; it’s hard to say what they will do for an encore after being so miserable.

The Indians offense by all appearances is still productive, ranking sixth in runs scored at 5.2. The Tribe’s team batting average is ordinary at .261 and they have been slumping of late, hitting under .250 as club the last 20 games, despite hanging 15 runs on Oakland last Friday.

While some will quote baseball statistics and point out – what you see is not what you get – the fact is Cleveland pitching shows precisely what it has to offer.

The Tribe allows 5.5 runs per game, same as Washington, making this tandem the two worst in baseball. Cleveland hurlers surrender the second most free passes at 3.9 per game, which is huge problem if you concede 9.8 hits per contest (29th), meaning opposing team have almost 14 base-runners each night, not including errors, placing tremendous pressure on the offense to score six runs every contest at a minimum.

If starting pitchers David Huff, Tomo Ohka, Carl Pavano, Jeremy Sowers and tonight’s starter Aaron Laffey (3-1, 3.93 ERA) don’t exactly seem impressive; think about what hitters in the opposite clubhouse are dreaming of. Adding fuel to this combustible situation is the Indians bullpen, which has 5.13 ERA, 12-17 record and paid closer Kerry Wood (he’d be fired as car salesman for not closing) leads a pen that is 50-50 (14 of 28) in save opportunities this season. It’s no wonder Cleveland is 33-51 and lost 22.8 units.

The Indians after losing 10-6 to AL Central division adversary Chicago last evening will face an aging pitcher who likely salvaged his career in Charlotte of all places. Jose Contreras (3-7, 4.84) at age 37, probably can figure his best days are behind him and it looked like it might be way behind him after starting 0-5 with an ERA over eight, placing him behind the 8-ball so to speak.

He went to Triple-A Charlotte, worked on his mechanics and rewound his career. Since returning to the White Sox (43-30, +3.6 units), Contreras is 3-2 with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in five starts. He’s been part of the Sox surge which has led to 12 wins in last 16 outings. “I’ve got it back,” said Contreras, when asked about 3-0 record in last four starts.

With Cleveland pitching in ruins, the batters not hitting as well and having to tackle a starting pitcher in a zone, this sets up as awful situation for the Tribe and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Indians as +130 underdogs.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

This system comes up fairly frequently and is 110-34 since 2005, 76.4 percent. In 2009, the numbers have improved slightly at 12-3, adding even more confidence. And speaking of confidence that is exactly what White Sox hitters have after posting big crooked numbers at US Cellular Field, with 17-4 mark after scoring nine or more runs. Even more impressive for the Pale Hose is 13-1 record at home after a game where they had six or more extra base hits over the last two seasons.

For the sports bettor looking for one big play tonight, this might be the one at affordable number.