Suns seek to avoid bring burned by Lakers

You have to give Ron-Ron credit, of the 10 players on the floor watching Kobe Bryant’s shot attempt to win another game, he was the only that realized it was going to land short of its destination, ran towards the ball, grabbed it and put in the basket to set off wild celebration by the ultra-cool movie and TV stars who realized this wasn’t scripted.

Ron Artest saved the day despite faulty vision, “I thought Kobe got fouled on the shot, so I figured it was going to be short,” Artest said. “And it was a little short.”

The series moves to its first elimination matchup and Phoenix made be down, but they certainly are not out.

As the new Philadelphia 76ers coach and analyst Doug Collins correctly pointed out, it felt like the Lakers were ahead by 15 points when they led by just eight midway thru the fourth quarter.

Coach Phil Jackson made a series of key adjustments before Game 5, running unbalanced overload against the Phoenix zone and running cutters weakside once the ball was passed into the lane area. The Suns tried a 1-3-1 changeup, but players and coaches at this level crave up a cheap gimmick like that in no time.

Lamar Odom returned to being aggressive and he and Derek Fisher drove thru the Phoenix zone like “CHIPS” with traffic stopped. All this led to a procession of layups and easy buckets.
Coach Alvin Gentry’s zone isn’t designed to disable the Los Angeles, rather to hopefully force up bad shot attempts along with normal misses. The Lakers will head to the sun drenched desert 13-4 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season.

The final minutes of Game 5 spoke loudly about both teams. Phoenix was unwilling to quit, especially Steve Nash. The Lakers had taken away aspects of the Canadien’s ability to use the screen and roll effectively, by jumping big men at him and setting up “wall” with Derek Fisher going underneath. Upon his return in the final minutes, Nash took matters into his own hands by taking and making shots, which caused vacillation by the Lakers bigs and gave him just enough room to operate.

Overall Los Angeles may be taller, but lack the lateral quickness to rotate back if Nash goes into the Lakers forest of tall timber. L.A. also showed a common flaw of this team, similar to the one that cost them to lose to Boston in the finals two years ago, a killer instinct. Artest’s ridiculous three-point attempt and other less the precise offensive sets enabled the more determined team late in the contest to almost steal one.

The Suns are 11-3 ATS at home off a road loss and need a few elements to occur to force a Memorial Day matchup.

Amare Stoudemire needs another bust-out effort like Game 3. A total of 40+ points isn’t required, however that same type of aggressiveness and rebounding desire is. Phoenix is going to shoot three-pointers regardless, thus the number made isn’t as important as the percentage, which has to be above 30 percent.

Channing Frye and Jared Dudley have found a comfortable rhythm in the West Finals; however Leandro Barbosa and Goran Dragic cannot be outscored by Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic like they were in the last contest (7-5).

The Suns are 1.5-point pick and are 9-1 ATS at U.S. Airways Arena after a loss by six points or less. The last game saw the first total go below the number in the series and the home team fail to cover. The oddsmakers have adjusted the total downward to 216, nevertheless Los Angeles is 7-0 OVER in the purple uniforms after allowing 100 points or more in exactly two straight tilts and Phoenix is 15-5 OVER at Planet Orange versus good shooting teams making 46 or more of their shots since the midpoint of the season the previous two years.

Game Six has been moved up to 8:30 Eastern on TNT as the Lakers try to close out the series. They are away 17-6 ATS away from home having lost two of their last three games.

Home Rules in NBA West Finals

People tend to hear and then add their own personal twist to what they just listened to, which ultimately tends to change or exaggerate the original topic. The Phoenix Suns had gone from a terrible defense team to one that was competent after the All-Star break this season. The more games Phoenix won and their players and coaches talked about improved defense being the difference, the more the media and public bought into it.

After holding Portland and San Antonio to 95.9 points per game in their first two series triumphs, the mantra was viewed as the new and improved Phoenix Suns.

The Los Angeles Lakers being more talented, with better offensive weapons, quickly put Alan Gentry’s team more into proper perspective, averaging 126 points in the first two games against the Suns.

Gentry is an affable coach, quick to give praise to his team and at least publicly, measures his disappointment when he sees a lack of effort or execution.

For Game 3, Gentry knew a couple of areas that needed immediate improvement.

He started with realizing his club was no match to play the Lakers straight-up defensively and that doubling different L.A. players was failing as badly as British Petroleum’s attempt to solve the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentry knew his team was still below average defensively, but was capable of making SOME stops, which might be enough to knock off the Lakers if the offense continued to be productive.
The head coach and assistant coaches went to a zone defense, which took Kobe Bryant and his teammates out of the triangle offense. Gentry and his staff hoped Los Angeles might become content to fire away from long range and kept his fingers crossed they wouldn’t bury too many. Though the Lakers made nine three-point baskets, it took them 32 attempts to reach that level, lowering their record to 7-3 ATS as road underdogs.

Offensively, Phoenix got aggressive taking the ball to the basket. Forget the talk the Lakers being Lemuel Gulliver from the book “Gulliver’s Travels”, where he washed ashore after a shipwreck and was captured by the people Lilliput (the Suns were bring characterized as the same size as Lilliputians), being one-twelfth the size of a normal human being.

The Suns went at their “giant” foes with abandon and ended up shooting 42 free throws (37 made) to their counterpart’s smallish total of 20. The 118-109 victory brought Phoenix back into the series and gave them hope for the next contest where they are 37-10 and 29-16-2 ATS.
Two main players on the floor changed the direction of the series. Amare Stoudemire was virtually unstoppable with 42 points and 11 rebounds and Lamar Odom returned to the planet earth, with 10 points on 4-14 shooting and had as many fouls as rebounds (6).

Though it probably won’t show in Game 4, Los Angeles has had ample rest, however another loss in the desert could make the series a far greater challenge, forced to play every other day, where they are 4-12 ATS with one day off.

The money is mostly riding on the Lakers, now a one-point favorite after being a 1.5-point underdog to open, with the total higher yet again at 222 after three straight Over’s.

Kobe and company are 18-7 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive contests and 23-12 OVER having won two of their last three games this season. Phoenix will try and square up the series and is 22-8 ATS after a tilt where both teams scored 105 points or more. The team with shaggy-haired point guard and fractured nose is 41-22 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season.

TNT will against provide this West Finals conflict starting at 9:00 Eastern with coaching adjustments very important. The home team is on 8-1 ATS run between these Pacific Division competitors.

Suns need to play D-Fence

Arizona has been in the news quite a bit lately and various government agencies have been under attack. In response to this, they have become downright defensive, which is something Suns fans are looking for from their team playing at home trailing the Los Angeles Lakers 2-0.

Phoenix has willing approved 128 and 124 points to the Lakers in the first two supposed conflicts with Los Angeles in the Western Finals, which might be considered passable if this was an old-school ABA contest or an All-Star clash. The problem is that neither is true, and the Lakers have scored more than George Clooney and Brad Pitt in their younger days.
Nothing has worked on the defensive end for the Suns that even coach Alvin Gentry let his guard down after Game 2.

"I'm open for suggestions," Gentry said on his way out of the interview room late Wednesday night.

"Even from the media."

A better place to start is with his players. With all the talk of who is or is not legal in the Grand Canyon state, Gentry has to convince his players that getting up and guarding your man is perfectly legal, but it doesn’t do much good to let the player you are supposed to be guarding to around you like a bull and matador confrontation, in which the outcome is you are gored for another basket.

"Every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down," Gentry said, "they go somewhere else."

Phoenix has tried to double Kobe Bryant; he passes to open man, while still scoring enough points himself. The Suns put two players on Pau Gasol on the paint, yet at 7’0 holding the ball over his head looking for open teammate, he looks like an eighth grader playing keep away from a group of first graders. Gasol has found Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and others effortlessly.
Things have gotten so bad for Phoenix even Jordan Farmar (13.5 points per game) and Shannon Brown (10.0 PPG) have looked like they could start for any of lottery teams the way they have scored in this series.

“Well, what can you say?" Gentry said. "We are just having a hard time. We can't slow them down. I thought we played well offensively, but every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down, they go somewhere else.

“And, you know, you do a great job on Kobe, and I thought we did. Then they go to Pau and we double-team Pau and there's Lamar, and we get it out of Lamar's hand and Jordan Farmar makes shots. And there's a reason they're the world champs. There's a good reason they're the world champs."

The Suns return home where they are 36-10, 28-16-2 ATS and have to find answers quickly. Maybe its wear Amare Stoudemire glasses that are far-sighted so they have to get closer to guard the players in purple.

What Phoenix has to do more than anything is play team defense. It’s obvious the Suns are not very sound doubling players on continual basis; instead each player has to make it his responsibility to guard his own man. If Kobe scores 50 or even 60 so be it, you guard your man and box-out on the boards.

Make the Lakers uncomfortable, they’ve played like a bunch of guys having a having a good time walking along Santa Monica beach. Throw live snakes on the floor before the game to get their attention, prove you mean business and make them understand from the start this isn’t going to be a vacation in the desert.

"You saw what the Thunder (Oklahoma City) did," Jared Dudley said. "That's our mindset."

Oddsmakers have Phoenix as 1.5-point favorites and has to take advantage of the crowd and make shots to make L.A. unsettled. They are 1-8 ATS in road games when their opponents make 39 to 45 percent of their three-pointers. The Suns have to make the Lakers pay for their limited defensive pressure and are 24-7 ATS vs. defensive teams forcing 14 or less turnovers a game the second half of this season.

Those doing sports betting presently anticipate there is almost no ceiling on the total that has sky-rocketed to 219 and Steve Nash’s pals need a lower scoring contest and they are 20-10 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. Kobe and company have the ability to shift gears and are 7-0 UNDER on the road after covering the spread in two or more consecutive times.

TNT has what is basically a do-or-die tilt for the Suns at 8:30 Eastern and they are 15-5 ATS at Planet Orange having lost two of their last three games.

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Better bring shades for Suns and Lakers in Game 2

One of the wonderful aspects of visiting Tinsel Town is you never know when the stars will be out. You could be standing in line at legendary Pink’s Hot Dogs or roast beef haven Phillipes and Sandra Bullock or Tom Hanks might be waiting in line with you. The same can also be true on the hardwood, where every now and again the Los Angeles Lakers and their stars give a memorable performance at the Staples Center.

There is always a bit of the unknown when a NBA team has a long layoff, you can never be sure what it means good or bad. The Orlando Magic appeared to be effected negatively with their extra time off against Boston, but the Lakers played refreshed and looked better than a Santa Monica sunset.

Kobe Bryant was in “the zone” scoring 40 points on 23 shot attempts. Bryant appeared more than any other L.A. player to have benefitted from the down time. "My legs benefited a lot," Bryant said. "I was able to take some time off and just get stronger, get my legs stronger, body stronger."

However, Bryant wasn’t the only Lakers player that played rejuvenated and Phil Jackson’s squad proved just how challenging they are to defeat when they all committed to common goal.

Lamar Odom had 19 points and 19 boards (seven on offense) and was dialed in throughout.
Paul Gasol was 10 for 13 shooting, even converting on a couple of almost impossible buckets for a man his size. Derek Fisher was defensively possessed in staying with Steve Nash and though he has 13 assists, Fisher and his teammates limited the former MVP to 13 points on only 10 shots.

Two keys for Phoenix coming into the series were rebounding and bench strength. The Suns were outrebounded by eight and their reserves were out-pointed 44-35 in losing by 21.

"They played great, one of the best games I've seen them play in the playoffs this season," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "Kobe kind of controlled the whole game. I thought we could have withstood the game that he had ... but when he's making his jumper like that, there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

Phoenix is going to have to play much better defense as L.A. was fearless doing what they wanted offensively. (Shannon Brown’s dunk attempt for example) The Suns are 31-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season and if Kobe stays percolating, they must negate the rest of his teammates since you aren’t going to be on the winning side permitting 58 percent shooting.

“They're probably going to continue to be taller than us as the series goes on, so we've got to ... make everything as tough as possible," Steve Nash wryly stated. "We played hard, but we didn't make enough shots, and we had a few too many breakdowns."

Subtract Grant Hill and the other four Phoenix starters shot 59.5 percent, the issue was they generated only 42 attempts. If the Suns expect to tie series and move spread record to 20-10 after one or more losses, the starters have to get more shots at the rim and Channing Frye and Jared Dudley can’t put up combined 2 for 13 numbers.

Phoenix is a seven-point underdogs, with total leaping to 216. For those that use online sports betting it’s impossible to ignore the Lakers are 11-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s and 17-6 against the spread in home games when playing only their second game in week. Coach Jackson’s club is 13-4 UNDER after a wipeout win by 20 points or more.

TNT will again have the coverage of Game 2 from LaLa-Land at 9:00 Eastern with the desert dogs 14-4 UNDER after they allowed a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher.

NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Phoenix

Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA.

Both those assessments have proven correct, however one will be kicked to the curb with the West Finals at hand. Here is a look at what each team has to do to reach the The Finals.

One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS and were like Whitney Houston’s recent concert tour, very unimpressive. More than one sports fan believed Oklahoma City had a fair shot to upset Los Angeles in the first round and after they suffered 21-point loss to the Thunder to tie the series at two, that belief no longer seemed so far-fetched.

However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.

I apologize in advance, but there is not getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.

L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.

Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.

Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.

Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.

That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.

Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.

Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.

Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.

Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14. With how ineffective the L.A. bench is, they need to outscore them nightly by 15 or more points, which place the Suns in far more advantageous spot and could mean heavier minutes for Lakers regulars, this might matter later in the series.

It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.

Jackson pulled out his clichéd “zen master” card saying Nash carry’s the ball (and Michael Jordan did what in Chicago when Phil was there), but he picked the wrong guy in Nash.

"It's news to me. I'm fortunate. I don't know if I've been called for a carry yet,'' he said after the Suns practiced Saturday, then he added straight-faced: "I've never heard anyone accuse me of carrying it. I mean, the best coach in the league Greg Popovich (of San Antonio) didn't have a problem with it last week.''(Nice subtle rip on the Zen-ster)

As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.

(In my best NBA analyst voice and following all spoken clichés) At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, (I'm surprised California government officials are letting the Lakers play in Zona, since Sherrif Joe will want to see Gasol's papers) gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.

3Daily Winners Pick- L.A. Lakers (-350) in seven over Phoenix (+290)

Cavs and Suns look to do their thang on Mother's Day

Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.

Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC

At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.

“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.

The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.

“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”

Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.

Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.

Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT

It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.

Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.

The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.

San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked.
In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.

On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.

"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.

The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.

Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.

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Spurs vs Suns Series Preview

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about each other. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been Avis to the Spurs Hertz, with Phoenix having been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war.

(3)Phoenix vs (7) San Antonio

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.
The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.
Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

3Daily Winners Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

Nuggets and Suns in heated encounter

Two days. That’s all that remains in the NBA season, yet the Western Conference war of attrition continues. As of this moment, four things are for certain, the Lakers are the top seed, Dallas is the Southwest Division champs, the eight teams have been determined and the rest is like Sonic’s drive-up menu, a lot of options.

Two teams out west will help solve or further make a mess of the situation, as Denver visits downtown Phoenix (The Purple Palace or Planet Orange depending on the local sportscaster). The Nuggets (53-28, 35-41-5 ATS) conclude their regular season tonight and can be Northwest Division champions with a win and Utah losing one of their final two games.

Denver mauled Memphis 123-101 last night as 11-point favorites and is 25-11 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite. They will have to complete an about face tonight, because just about a block away from Alice Cooper’s restaurant (he of "Welcome to my nightmare" album) has been the desert of doom for the Nuggets. The last time Denver left Phoenix victorious was Apr. 7, 2004, 10 games ago (2-8 ATS). “I thought I won one there recently,” Carmelo Anthony said Monday. “We’ll get one tomorrow, hopefully.”

The Suns (52-28, 45-33-2 ATS) are forcing opposing teams to wear SPF30 just to play them, having won 12 of 14 (9-4-1 ATS), presently tied with Utah and having the same number of defeats as Denver.

Phoenix is in the ideal situation however, able to control their destiny. A win tonight and at Utah tomorrow moves the Suns from fifth spot and having to open up on the playoff road, up to No. 3 and the first two tilts on home court where they are 31-9 and 23-15-2 ATS. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are rested thanks to schedule-maker and they are 12-3 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days this season.

Bookmaker.com has the Suns as 5.5-point home faves with total of 216.5 and they are 21-9-1 ATS in last 31 tries and 12-3 UNDER on own floor versus offensive teams scoring 103 or more points game over the last two seasons.

Denver’s stakes are equally as high and they are 13-5 ATS after two games as a home favorite and are 17-6 UNDER in road contests off a Pepsi Center win by 10 points or more.

This is second game on TNT that has 7:30 Pacific start time, which will help sort out the West Conference congestion.

Phoenix Suns in burning hot situation

In sports, one of the old sayings is – sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. For Phoenix, this has turned out to be abundantly true. It was known all over the league the Suns front office was trying to move Amare Stoudemire and were reportedly very close with both Cleveland and Miami, however Phoenix didn’t pull the trigger on either deal and Stoudemire stayed. This non-move has turned out to be the best move for the franchise.

At the trade deadline, the Suns (45-26, 39-30-2 ATS) were bouncing back between seventh and eighth position for NBA playoffs, but no more. Phoenix has won 13 of last 16 (11-4-1 ATS), including last five in a row. Not only have the Suns moved up to fifth spot in Western Conference, they are one loss behind Dallas, Denver and Utah to potentially rise as high as the No. 2 slot out West with 11 games to play.

Among the varied reasons for this upheaval is Stoudemire. Often thought to be a malcontent, more worried about personal stats than winning, he has been absolutely domineering with 30.8 points while adding 10.0 rebounds over the last 11 games.

“He’s been great,” coach Alvin Gentry said of the forward, who leads the team with 22.9 points and 8.8 boards per game. “We try to take advantage of situations where they try to put undersized guys on him.

“He’s come through for us big time. He’s played great. The last month and a half, I think he’s been the best player in the NBA.”

The Suns are 3-1-1 ATS during this latest winning streak, which including titillating 152-114 explosion over Minnesota. Phoenix has shot 52.7 percent or better in four of last five outings.
The person that led the Suns revival is now the coach of the New York franchise, Mike D’Antoni. Thus far in taking over the Knicks he has been similar to his predecessors, unsuccessful at 26-45. The roster lacks many of the attributes he had in the desert, namely a point guard even remotely similar to Steve Nash.

New York isn’t all that interesting to watch either, ranked 11th in scoring at 101.7 points per game and has played UNDER in eight of last 11 contests.

The folks at DiamondSportsbook.com have Phoenix as 10.5-point favorites, with total of 224 and that spread could be beatable with this super system.

Play On favorites of 10 or more points after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent after going Under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.

This isn’t a system that comes up frequently, just over two times a season on average since 1996. While it doesn’t pop up often, the results certainly do stand out with 25-5 ATS record, 83.3 percent. Among the comforting aspects are the favorite has NEVER lost and the average winning margin is 17.9 points per game. This system has also stayed consistent, 13-2 ATS the last five seasons.

To further enhance to probability of this system being correct, Phoenix is off a 133-131 squeaker over Golden State Monday night and the blazing hot Suns are 11-1 ATS after a close win by three points or less over the last three seasons.

NBA Road Teams as Hot as Brooklyn Decker

While Phoenix is known as a great vacation spot other than the summer time and Utah is known for, well, being Utah, both basketball teams are heating up in what should be another scintillating run for eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. Both teams are in action tonight, on the road, seeking to keep the momentum building.

Jazz hitting all the right notes

The Jazz (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) opened the second part of their schedule with a road win last night in Houston 104-95 and they will have three more games away from home on this trip. Utah has won 10 of 11 (8-2-1 ATS) and 14 of last 16 (11-2-3 ATS). Never regarded as superior visiting club, the Jazz are attempting to win their fifth consecutive road game for the first time in two years when they visit New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS).

The Hornets are adjusting to life without superstar guard Chris Paul, who had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and is out a minimum of three more weeks. New Orleans, after losing three in a row, won two of last three before the break, covering all of them thanks to hot shooting, which hid defensive flaws. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher over the last two seasons.

Utah is playing outstanding team basketball and is 30-13 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists, which raised their record to 13-3 ATS in the last two February’s. This leads to the Jazz as 3.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 201.5. New Orleans has won the only meeting between these teams this season in Utah, yet is 7-17 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. This encounter starts just after 8:00 Eastern in local markets, with the Hornets 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog.

Farewell Amare?

The Phoenix Suns (32-22, 28-25-1 ATS) have been playing their best basketball since early November, on 6-1 SU and ATS roll off their impressive 109-95 win at Memphis yesterday. This was the second time the Suns have held an opponent under 40 percent shooting in this stretch of games; however the chemistry of this team is expected to be in flux.

Insider reports in Phoenix have contract talks between Amare Stoudemire and the Suns as wide apart as the Grand Canyon; fueling speculation a trade is imminent. Cleveland is still believed the most likely destination, though Miami is still in the mix. Charlotte’s name has been mentioned, however they have nothing the Suns would want or need, particularly since they sit at seventh seed presently, but just a couple of games out of moving up to fourth slot. As far as tonight, Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more five consecutive contests this year.

Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS) was lauded for acquiring Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson from Washington in a seven-player deal, nonetheless this much upheaval changes team dynamics and it takes at least a little time to sort out players roles. How the Mavericks handle this transitional period will likely decide they playoff positioning.

After losing at Oklahoma City 99-86 on Tuesday, shooting a season 32.3 percent, Dallas now has as many losses as San Antonio (21) and could tumble from third seed to eighth with a losing streak. The Mavericks are 4-7 (2-9 ATS) in last 11 and are 2-12 ATS at home after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Dallas is a 4.5-point home favorite, for reasons unknown. The Mavs are undistinguished 15-9 at American Airlines Center and gut-wrenching (for backers) 5-19 (that’s true) against the spread. The total of 217.5 might be the most important number to consider, since Dallas is 0-10 ATS on home floor versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this campaign. Dallas has flustered Phoenix, winning seven of last eight in Big D (4-3-1 ATS) including four in a row.

This showdown is on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern and the Suns are 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The Stoudemire watch continues.

Heat and Suns look to increase temperatures

Dwayne Wade and his Heat teammates ended their five game losing streak last evening, in humbling Houston 99-66. They will seek just their third road win in 10 attempts in a place that has not hospitable to them. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball since the beginning of the season and are rested for opponent who is injured and off playing last night.

Miami (25-27 SU & ATS) had lost five in a row, and been beaten rather severally (9.6 points per game) and was determined to change their attitude around at home against the Rockets. The Heat turned up the heat on Houston, building a 56-31 halftime lead and never looked back. “Instead of feeling sorry for ourselves, we came in with the right mindset to work and try to get better,” coach Erik Spoelstra said.

To take positive momentum into the All-Star break, the Heat players will need a non-placet attitude about playing consecutive nights. Miami is 2-8 and 3-7 ATS playing with no rest and been bashed by 12.4 points a contest in this situation. The Heat are 3-12 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons and head to a joint where success is tough to come by.

Miami has lost five in a row at Phillips Arena during the regular season and eight of nine if you include the playoffs in almost three seasons (3-6 ATS). Atlanta (33-17, 32-18 ATS) has the second best home record in the Eastern Conference at 21-5 and the finest spread record in the NBA at 18-8 ATS. The Hawks have captured nine of last 10 (7-3 ATS) and are 15-5 ATS on home floor after playing three consecutive games as favorite.

The Heat is a seven-point road underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 191 and is 17-34 ATS off a home win since 2007. Atlanta on the other hand is 15-6 ATS overall and 10-2 OVER in a home game facing a team with a losing record this season.

This doesn’t look like a crucial contest for Phoenix (31-21, 27-24-1 ATS), however it is important for the following reasons. The Suns five game winning streak has restored the club’s confidence, especially with the last four victories coming on the road. A sixth straight W might cool talk of trading All-Star center Amare Stoudemire, whose averaged 27.8 points and 12.3 rebounds in those four road triumphs.

Phoenix has gone from a low Western Conference seed to now with visions of moving up to fourth slot if they continue with big second half. Besides trying to earn another win, the Suns will begin playing their final 29 games well-rested, with this being their only contest in 11 day period. Phoenix won and covered at Sacramento last Friday 114-102 and is 12-4 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.

Conversely, Portland (30-24, 29-24-1 ATS) can’t get to break quick enough. The Trailblazers have been injury-plagued again and have missed the heart and soul of their team, Brandon Roy. Portland is 4-7 (7-4 ATS) in Roy’s absence and though Jerryd Bayless filled in admirable for a time, averaging 14 points per game, he’s down to 6.5 PPG in last two tries and the Blazers have scored 82 and 77 points in last two games played at home. Coach Nate McMillan’s team is 47-70 ATS playing eight or more games in 14 days.

The Suns are eight-point home chalk, with total of 210.5 and they are 12-2 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite and 9-0 OVER at home off two or more consecutive road wins. Portland is 17-8 ATS versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game and 12-3 OVER as a road underdog this season.

Eyes Wide Open in Phoenix

Are the Phoenix Suns turning into a joke? For starters, Commish Stern has to peeved the biggest news each day over the weekend in the NBA was not the All-Star game, but the ongoing front office saga of the Suns. Owner Robert Sarver changes his mind quicker than a six year old. One minute he wants to win the NBA title and the next, move salary. Bobby, make up your mind!

Steve Kerr has shown his inexperience throughout since being hired. The move for Shaq was calculated risk and though nobody really believed it would work, Phoenix wasn’t going to win a NBA title unless they tried something. The Suns have turned out to be one of those teams that were elite in the league for a number of years, but never good enough to get over the hump. The hiring of Porter was misguided for many reasons, which ultimately all turned out to be true.

Terry Porter was good hire in principle, the problem was the roster. The Suns are littered with one dimensional offensive-minded player’s with almost no interest in playing solid defense. Asking Porter to coach established players that have had a higher level (not the top level like the Big Cactus) of success to change their ways, well unless the team leaders bought in, this was going nowhere and Kerr should have been wise enough to know this.

Porter might be a good coach, however was in the wrong situation. Part of being a coach or any leader for that matter is being a salesman. Porter appeared to believe the professionalism he played with should be how the players should react. The former Portland Trailblazer was never able to line up the right players to get the team to follow his leadership, which ultimately led to his demise.

The Suns players have also been child-like. Here is a group of players who have never won anything (except one) and they flat out refused to truly embrace something different that MIGHT have made them better. Amare Stoudemire was one of the biggest frauds. He was happy as clam last season when Shaq arrived and he could play power forward and dominate with greater freedom in uptempo style. But when his touches and scoring opportunities were being used up in new scheme, his displeasure and body language could not have been more apparent.

With Jason Richardson getting into trouble twice with the law since being traded to the desert, this is a volatile situation and Alvin Gentry himself goes into a dicey spot.

Gentry is used to being a go between as assistant, now he will be calling the shots. The players may be thankful for looser offensive reins, but he is still going to ask them to play defense. Throw in the roster isn’t settled yet either, with Stoudemire still possibly on the move, since Sarver isn’t about to overpay for a fringe playoff team that is over the salary cap.

What was for years one of the most stable franchises in the NBA, is now in turmoil with no simple solutions.