What would make Kansas City a good bet?

It’s been awhile since the Royals were a good team, not great, just average. The highlight of the last several seasons was a strong 18-8 finish in September of 2008, which led to 75-87 record and hope for the following season. That lasted just over a month (18-11 on May 7, 2009), before Kansas City took their rightful place in the cellar of the AL Central for the sixth time in seven years.

Will the Royals EVER be good again like the George Brett days or is this franchise doomed to be Pittsburgh of the American League?

It’s hard to find much good to say about K.C. given their more recent history. The last manager to have a winning record was Hal McRae at 286-277 from 1991 to 1994 before he was jettisoned. In his place has been a parade of eight skippers, including the last flavor Ned Yost, who was run out of Milwaukee in the heat of a pennant race in 2008.

From a wagering point of view, Kansas City isn’t all that bad at 42-57, -1.9 units. Nonetheless, they are only one of four American League teams with a losing home record in 2010 at 20-26 (-5.9 units).

Decked out in my general manager’s attire, the Royals do offer positives. Kauffman Stadium is an older park that stood the test of time beautifully and the renovations have been trumpeted throughout baseball.

The casual and even fairly serious baseball fan might not know Kansas City has and continues to lead the American League in batting with .280 average. Why than do the Royals rank 10th in runs scored (4.3) per game, no boppers. K.C. is 12th in home runs in the AL with 66, which means despite having 117 more base hits than Toronto on the season, they have touched home 37 fewer times than the Blue Jays, who lead the Major’s in long balls with 152.

A big blow to the franchise has been the lack of development of Alex Gordon. Once thought to be a cornerstone, Gordon has never really hit, been injury-prone and his third base defense has led to him being made into an outfielder. At 26, Gordon is no longer a prospect and needs to blossom immediately to hold any value.

Jose Guillen, Billy Butler and David DeJesus are all above average players; however they are complementary types, not building blocks towards division contention.

The overly sensitive Kansas City front office (how dare anyone criticize us, it takes time to rebuild) likes its minor league studs like third base prospect Mike Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Wil Myers, yet none are really thought to be ready at least until 2012 for full-time duty.

Personally, I believe it would be a huge mistake to trade Zack Grienke (6-10, 4.01 ERA) since every team, no matter how bad they might be, has to have a pitcher the rest of the players trust in which they truly believe they have a significant chance to win every five days. The rest of the of the starting staff looks very much like a collection of No. 4 or No. 5, which makes winning at best a 50-50 bet , particularly with second-rate relievers beyond closer Joakim Soria (0-2, 2.25, 27 saves).

Last night Kansas City was beaten into submission, losing 19-1 to Minnesota and the task for this evening doesn’t get a whole lot easier facing Carl Pavano (12-6, 3.26 ERA). The right-hander is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts and the former fragile Yankee hurler has four complete games in last seven outings (including previous two). Pavano has been in the AL Central the last two years and he is 22-10 against division opponents over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Royals are +140 underdogs at online sportsbooks and ridiculously bad 48-108 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. K.C. has lost eight of last 10 as dogs and is 1-7 versus right-hand pitchers. Bruce Chen (5-4, 4.38) tries to avoid a third straight loss taking the ball for his club, but is 1-6 as a Game 2 starter.

Kansas City might have great eating barbeque joints and the future of the Royals might be bright, yet the present is dimmer than a two year old energy saving light bulb.

Knowing Football Numbers Builds Bankrolls

Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when the sportsbooks where whining like adult babies about all the favorites winning and they were suffering heavy losses, well they were strangely quiet after this weekend and for good reason. The books cleaned up as NFL favorites were 3-10 against the spread. They reaped the benefits of Green Bay losing outright to Tampa Bay, helping them take in a great deal of teaser money. The San Diego Chargers come from behind victory was also a boom, as heavy betting by Giants fans figuring their team couldn’t lose four in a row, was flushed away. NFL favorites are 28-38-1 ATS the last five weeks.

This helps set up a very interesting Week 10 in the NFL, as teams off road underdog outright wins are 13-6-1 ATS. This week Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas and Arizona all qualify.

It used to be only sharps would bet football early and it would be relatively easy to track what top bettors were playing. It seems as least this year that has not been the case. In the NFL, games that move two or more points on sides by Tuesday night are 5-9 ATS in that direction and totals are even worse 6-12. That’s not to say sharp bettors don’t have off years. But last week was perfect example of patterns not following traditional methods of smart bettors. New Orleans shot from 8.5 to 11-point favorite in a division game against Atlanta and defensive-minded clubs Denver and Baltimore opened at 40 and rose to 42 quickly. Over the years, that is contrarian to their normal wagering patterns.

The Midwest might be facing declining population and the Big Ten clearly is not what it used to be, however these fans still support football and backing them with cash is still frequented. It was a dreadful day for alumni betting on their favorites and the books pocketed handsomely. In games between Big Ten Conference foes, the underdog was perfect 5-0 ATS, with four outright road upsets.

After coming up short most of the season, college home underdogs are showing some bite with 22-14 ATS record the last couple of weeks. Teams off three exact covers (no bye weeks) are 6-14-1 ATS the last month. Teams that force or commit five or more turnovers are 22-8-1 ATS the last month if they play the following week.

Though the numbers has dropped off from ridiculous proportions, totals moves of three or more points from opening until closing are still scintillating 106-56-2, 65.4 percent in the direction they’ve moved and have yet to have a losing week all season.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you were one of the sports bettors who had Carolina at -7 at home against Buffalo last Sunday, you were robbed. No it wasn’t by the oddsmaker and it wasn’t by Jake Delhomme (though he played a strong supporting role), it was the Carolina kicker John Kasay.

As advanced steps have been taken to analyze sports, one not given nearly enough credit is lost opportunities and how they relate to future results. My guess as to why this has never taken a strong foothold is because a lot can sound like whining depending on the story-teller and today’s world tends to be more results oriented, leaving less room for conjecture.

The Carolina Panthers were moving the ball up and down the field but stalling when they needed to punch the ball in the end zone. Kasay had two field goal opportunities in the first half against the Bills from very makeable distances of 43 and 39 yards respectively and he missed both. Where his misses altered the course game was in the last five minutes of the third quarter. Another Carolina drive was stalling at the 16-yard line of Buffalo, with the Bills ahead 7-2. Despite Kasay’s long history of success, coach John Fox was displeased with his accuracy on this day and decided to pass on 33-yard attempt and went on fourth down and about four feet. Carolina was stuffed at the point of attack and lost the ball on downs, trailing by the same score, in spite of 16-4 first down dominance.

That was essentially the game as the Bills took advantage of Delhomme interceptions and scored the next 10 points to build commanding 17-2 lead.

Kasay’s two misses changed everything. If he makes both field goals, the Panthers lead 8-7 and assuredly a normally conservative coach Fox kicks the field goal, giving Carolina an 11-7 lead and Buffalo now needs a touchdown from backup Ryan Fitzgerald, which based on final tally of total yards (425-167 Panthers) seems unlikely. Of course there is no way to know, but based on the pace of the game, Carolina at worst would have kicked another field goal (for a push) or possibly would have tallied a touchdown for the winner. A kicker’s inability to put the ball between the uprights cost his team and Carolina backers a victory.

Cross off New Orleans as a team that can’t overcome serious adversity. Whatever was possible for undefeated team playing a flat game against rested opponent on the road to go wrong did for the Saints. Drew Brees was sacked, hurried and intercepted, as New Orleans fell behind 24-3, but they never gave up and for the third time already this season, the Miami defense faltered in the second half and lost for a second time in three attempts. The Saints aren’t going 16-0, but with each passing week it looks like the road thru the NFC to the Super Bowl goes thru New Orleans.

If you have Direct TV, you saw a month’s worth of bad football this past week on the NFL package. The average winning margin for week seven was just over 20 points per game which has to approach some record. What is going to be really hard on NFL bettors is when these awful teams start meeting each other with nothing to play for, whom to you choose.

Know your Numbers- The current disparity in the NFL is shown by the fact teams with winning records playing teams with losing records are 14-7 ATS since week 4. –A couple of years ago the StatFox Edge Football Annual ran an article about Yards Per Points Scored. The basic premise was to Play On the Top 5 teams and Play Against the bottom five teams on a weekly basis. Thus far the Top 5 is 8-5-1 ATS and the bottom five is 6-12 ATS. (Teams in same group playing each other are not counted) If a matchup has a crossover from each group, the better team is 3-0 ATS thus far.—Favorites ended up 9-3-1 ATS last week, giving them 56-46-1 ATS record on the season. A sportsbook operator on the Vegas Strip I spoke to said the bean-counters were not going to be happy, as teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England and the New York Jets not only were heavily bet straight up, but were in various parlay and teasers that won, making it a one of the worst Sunday’s in the NFL in recent memory for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Going Green has payoff with right methods

In these times of trying to be environmentally friendly, it is good for the earth to do so. The three R’s are at the centerpiece of this movement, recycle, reuse and reduce. Buying in larger quantities helps reduce the amounts of garbage is placed in landfills. Other tips include product lifecycle, sustainability and value. In the spirit of looking to do what’s right for the earth, adding Green to one’s wagering account also is beneficial since the more greenbacks a person has; it makes it easier to buy in bulk.

Let’s be clear, Al Gore might not wholly endorse this idea, but winning college football wagers surely creates a friendly environment, especially in these economic times.

As mentioned, the first aspect to consider is lifecycle. While there is no way to know exactly what the future holds, a true Green investor likes to have a good start to the future based on prior results. Take these college football teams for example.

ATS Records
Idaho 7-0
Connecticut 6-0
Central Michigan 6-1
Nebraska 5-1
UL-Monroe 5-1
Wyoming 5-1
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 5-2

As these college football teams approach or are at the midpoint of their respective schedules, they have shown to be worthy of furthering the cause of Going Green by generating a vast amount of cash. What these teams have proven is they can look the wisest of oddsmakers and prove to the world they are more wrong than your local weatherman.

In most cases, the sportsbooks don’t take too heavy a beating since many teams on this list are below or off many sports bettors radar. That’s just fine since the majority of us are more concerned about doing what is right within our means and would prefer the public stayed away from our opportunity to Green-up our world.

Idaho a wonderful example of exercising one’s right of Going Green. The Vandals have been like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor with six covers of the spread as underdogs, which has included five OUTRIGHT upsets. Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999, having last played a in bowl game the previous year in Boise, ID at the Humanitarian Bowl against Southern Mississippi. The Vandals were favorites last week against Hawaii, which was the second time this has happened in 37 games. Trips to Nevada and Boise State will be challenging, however this just might be year to back Idaho and stay in the green.

Another consideration is sustainability for Going Green. It won’t happen every year, but tried and true college football programs are like blue chip stocks, they may not pay out huge dividends every year, but over time your money will grow. This season such marquee names include Nebraska, Alabama and Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers haven’t been in the public eye a great deal since winning the national championship in 1997. Frank Solich was a good coach, but wasn’t a great recruiter and Bill Callahan would be wise to stay two states away from Nebraska. Bo Pelini has brought back the Husker mentality of playing hard-nosed defense and placed the offense in the hands of able assistant coaches. With a Top 12 defense and quality offense, the covers should keep coming in Husker Nation.

When Nick Saban was hired, everyone figured it was just a matter of time before Alabama was a national power again and were they ever right. Alabama is a physically dominant team on both sides of the ball and since Saban has been able to bring in these type of players, the Crimson Tide are rolling with 14-6 ATS record in the regular season the last two years.

It’s hard to imagine a name like Ohio State not being given their due, but the Buckeyes just go about their business and keeping winning games. This is far from one of coach Jim Tressel’s best squads in Columbus and sports bettors have been able to take advantage of the situation with oddsmakers dissing them to a certain extent. A couple points to remember about Tressel teams that have Buckeye leaves on helmets. Ohio State won’t cover all the time, but they seldom lose when they are not supposed. In 45 regular games the Buckeyes have been favored by 10 or more points since 2001, they’ve lost only three times, including at Purdue last Saturday. Since “The Vest” was in his second year, Ohio State has never had a losing ATS record on the season (52-38 ATS).

The final part of going Green is value. The whole aspect of doing what is right for the world doesn’t come easy; you have to work for it. A lot of time it costs money and energy spent in terms of consumable workload. The beauty of the putting in the time is there can be a payoff in the end.

Searching thru figures to find teams that have a stellar defense like Connecticut is invaluable to Going Green. Coach Randy Edsall had built a program on defense and though the Huskies offense can make an adult more squeamish than a Six Flags rollercoaster ride, few people constantly monitor every penny they make or lose. The Huskies bring home the money.

The MAC conference generally draws about as much attention as a Carly Simon comeback (google to see how many CD’s she sold with last project). This makes a team like Central Michigan a valuable commodity. The Chippewas have been putting up outstanding offensive numbers since Dan LeFevour arrived at Mt. Pleasant what seems like eight years ago. LeFevour’s first two years C. Mich was 18-7-1 ATS, however last year without much of a defense, they sank to 5-7 against the spread. With 10 starters back on the defensive side, covering spreads is back to normal for Central Michigan.

Wyoming has scored 10 points or less three different times including being shut out twice, however that hasn’t stopped them from posting 4-3 SU record and sparkling spread mark. The Cowboys have relished the role of underdog and are 4-1 against the spread in that situation. With the offense lagging, Wyoming’s defense has raised the level of their play in 2009 with its eight returning starters. Take away the 41 points they allowed to No. 3 Texas and these Cowboys have permitted just 17.7 points per game.

Our hope this has been a valuable lesson in understanding some of the elements of what it takes and what it means to Go Green. Now is the time to get it right since Dec. 5 is the last day to have everything in order before a different type of opportunity presents itself for going even further Green, with the bowl season.

NFL Schedule Thoughts and Info

If you own a business or are in the marketing department of your work place, if you have any extra cash to play with (unlikely I understand), you might want to consider hiring somebody who has worked for the National Football League. Late Tuesday, the NFL released it schedule and by the way the NFL pages on various websites were flooded with information and people commenting, plus the way radio talk shows were hit with calls and reactions, you would have thought E’s “The Girls Next Door” were going to have an episode without clothing.

Make no mistake, it is fun and exciting to look over all the various teams and whom they will play and take a gander at all the prime time matchups. It is however imperative to keep things in perspective, since what is written and understood today will be far different later in the season.

How different you ask, let’s take a trip down memory lane, about 365 days ago. When last year’s schedule came out, Pittsburgh’s was the most difficult. In analyzing their slate, there did not appear to be one game among the 16 they would have breather. For the most part that was true, with Cincinnati and Cleveland being the only teams that were worse than expected. Yet despite the arduous slate, the Steelers almost always found a way to win and ended up winning another Super Bowl.

After pulling off an undefeated regular season, luck fell the way of New England; at least it appeared so, with the Patriots having the easiest schedule. No matter who New England was about to play, everything changed when Tom Brady went down to injury in the opening minutes. After romping thru the AFC East for years, an aging defense and back-up quarterback were nailed twice in division contests in Foxboro, which one could easily reason why Bill Belichick’s team failed to make the playoffs.

Nevertheless, it is fun to speculate what could and might happen since reality will take over starting September 10.

Because of the musical chairs nature of the NFL schedule, formulated by how a team finishes and predetermined out-of-conference opponents, any team that draws a challenging slate one year is not guaranteed to have the easiest the following and vise-versa. To prove there is a higher power, even above the NFL (really there is) the football gods and others brought balance and order to various divisions.

In 2008, the NFC South and AFC East had the easiest schedules to navigate. Five of the eight teams took advantage of their good fortune and improved their record from the previous season. The Patriots could not possibly improve on 16-0 perfection and Tampa Bay and Buffalo ended up the same record as the previous year.

This season the anvil falls. The teams with the eight hardest schedules based on last year’s results, are from the NFC South and AFC East. Miami catches the brunt of the punishment, facing teams that were 152-104, 59.4 percent. Besides the annual confrontations within the division, the Dolphins have the loaded AFC South and the NFC South. Seven of those eight teams were .500 or better and if that isn’t enough piling on, the other two tilts come in Weeks 2 and 3, a Monday night with Indianapolis and short week to make west coast trip to San Diego. Miami will face the third most difficult slate in seven years.

Next is the Carolina Panthers, who awoken last season, being more injury free and captured the NFC South. This year, Carolina takes on teams that were 151-104-1 (59.2 percent). The Panthers change the languishing AFC West for the East in non-conference play and comes out on the short end of surrendering the NFC North for the significantly tougher East. The two extra games are a December Sunday night game against Minnesota and a trip to the desert to take on the Super Bowl experienced Arizona Cardinals, who bounced them out of the postseason. Jake Delhomme or somebody better be able to pass, since the December sked doesn’t lend itself to huge running lanes, facing the Bucs, Patriots, Vikings and Giants in order.

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers go from the most toilsome, to one of the easiest 16-game schedules, coming in at 29th. In the end, it likely won’t be this simple for Pittsburgh as they will take everybody’s best shot, particularly on the road. Ben Roethlisberger and company gladly give away the NFC East for the NFC North (who doesn’t want to play Detroit) and the AFC West as whole doesn’t look like a group ready for prime time football.

The teams with the three most halcyon appointments later this year all reside in the NFC North. Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay are thought to be geared towards improvement, though the Lions shouldn’t be the “welcome” mat they were last season. The Bears have a substantial start having to play at Green Bay and hosting Pittsburgh. After that the annual two-pack with Detroit, along with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati and St. Louis, Da Bears should come out of that mix of contests no worse than 5-1, if Jay Cutler is the final piece to Chicago’s puzzle.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last seven Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For Pittsburgh backers and those seeking an edge, only two of the prior six Super Bowl champions have posted a winning spread record the year after winning the title.

2007 N.Y. Giants 12-4 12-4 ATS
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

Facing the supposed hardest 16 games does not guarantee failure for betting purposes. Though Miami looks like they will have a full plate, the last dozen teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate, was 94-90-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in South Florida for a Dolphins postseason party, as only four of the last 12 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

Teams that have had the easiest program like Chicago, have only made the playoffs once of the last eight squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This is a sorry grouping, with 55-73 record and 59-67-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

The Atlanta Falcons have a three-game homestand starting in late November and chances are they will need it, after playing four of the previous five in places like Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina and New York (Giants).

It will be traveling time for the G-Men and Seattle this upcoming season. After opening at home against Washington, New York travels to the Cowboys new ball yard and also visits Tampa Bay and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. The Giants catch a bit of break, with the Bucs and Chiefs with new coaching staffs still sorting things out early in the year. The Seahawks sojourn starts the third Sunday in November, which takes then to Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis, at least no three time zone games.

Do you ever wonder if the Dallas players sometimes wonder what it would be like to be normal? In 2009, they have six specific games that are unique telecasts, not played at 1 of 4:15 Eastern. If you’re good enough it probably doesn’t matter, yet having a constantly disruptive schedule can’t add much stability.

Miami has four prime time games; does this look and smell like Cleveland of last year all over again?

Bill Belichick and his team put the “England” in New England, when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay in late October.

After a fair schedule to open the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be tested having to take on Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh in weeks 13-15.

The NFL is not too impressed with Tampa Bay this season, after just missing the playoffs last and being division champs the previous year, every game starts at 1 or just after 4 Eastern.

Remember how poorly West Coast teams performed in Eastern Time Zone last year, well because of schedule changes, there is only six such games the first nine weeks of the season.

Betting Day 1 NCAA Tournament

The first day of tournament yields unbelievable excitement and that is before the games even start. Lines at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and the state of Nevada are long with players giddy and anxious, certain they are going to make a killing. Those that use online services find certain sites so slow it feels like back when it was pre-Pentium days. It’s also quite a day for bookmakers, thrilled to take all the action, but a little nervous too many favorites will come in.

The opening day has everybody pumped, as even some companies will let employees watch games or have extended lunch (in many cases not much to do these days) and if you’re an AIG employee, probably snacking on filet and jumbo shrimp on the company. (Wink Wink) Let’s start taking a look at all the early contests that set the table for the first day of action. Lines courtesy of BetJamaica.com.

LSU vs Butler 12:20 E Line –LSU -2.5, 127.5

CBS trots out the A-Team to start the tournament for this 8 vs 9 matchup with Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. LSU surprised a lot of people in winning 26 games, but lost focus after winning SEC, losing three of last four and not shooting over 40 percent. This group has experience with Marcus Thornton, Tasmin Mitchell and Garrett Temple, part of team that went to Final Foul. The Tigers have had issues with teams that control tempo and are 1-8 ATS versus teams averaging 53 or less shots a game. Remember how important veteran experience is in tournament in backcourt, Butler starts two freshman as guards and three altogether. What is intriguing about the Bulldogs is no seniors in top nine players, how will they hold up against vets like Thornton? Butler is 13-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.

Memphis vs. Cal-State Northridge 12:25E Line – Memphis -19.5, 130.5

CS-Northridge has scored under 60 points just five times this season in averaging 73.7 points per game. The Matadors are likely to feel like they have had a cape thrown over them, probably struggling to reach the 60 barrier against Memphis defense. The Tigers aren’t as talented as last year’s group that was about a second from national championship, however they are every bit as good as the prior two John Calipari squads and convert almost 70 percent from the charity stripe. Memphis leads the nation in field goal percentage defense at 36.2 percent. What has been amazing for backers is the Tigers haven’t been overvalued all season and are 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. The Matadors could have expected to make a better showing, but their leading scorer was suspended and top point guard was in auto accident last month, meaning backups are facing Memphis pressure, yikes.

BYU vs Texas A&M 12:30E Line – BYU -2, 139

This is a rare rematch from last year’s tournament, which was essentially unavoidable, with BYU not available for Friday/Sunday contests because of religious beliefs. The Cougars are favored this time around and are 10-3-1 ATS off a loss. BYU has excellent shooters, both deep and around the lane. Despite lacking height, the Cougars have a gang mentality for rebounding and are +4. What hurts BYU is lack of athleticism, which is a strength of Texas A&M. The Aggies were flying towards the end of the regular season, until second half collapse against Texas Tech in Big 12 tourney. The Aggies had won six in a row and looked like a threat to the top teams. Texas A&M has to play to their strengths and let point guard Donald Sloan run the show. The Aggies are 9-2 ATS in all neutral court games recently and are 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Purdue vs No. Iowa 2:30E Line – Purdue -8, 125

Just like using the Clapper, the light went on for Purdue, winning the Big Ten tournament. Like most teams, coach Matt Painter’s squad needed continuity and Robbie Hummel returning to health made everything blossom. The Boilermakers hold teams to 38.9 percent shooting, playing fundamental defense, yet would not be characterized as being a physical team. Purdue is 7-2 ATS this season when favored by 7 to 12.5-point range. Northern Iowa was seeing a successful season floating away, losing four of five in the middle of February; however they regained their swagger and doubled as Missouri Valley regular and postseason champions. Lead announcer Kevin Harlan has been practicing since Sunday night how to say Kwadzo Ahelegbe and Ali Farokhmanesh, two-thirds of UNI’s guard tandem. What made the Panthers so tough is 7’0 Jordan Eglseder and rugged Adam Koch. Northern Iowa’s playing as well as Purdue and is 12-6 and 11-7 on the road, catching this many points.

North Carolina vs Radford 2:50E Line – North Carolina -25.5, 163

Even if Ty Lawson is a no-go, North Carolina should have enough firepower, before what will be a very partisan crowd in Greensboro. The Tar Heels average 90.2 points per game and Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington and Lawson didn’t come back to Chapel Hill to make the NCAA Tournament, they came back to win it. North Carolina was shabby 11-19 ATS this season, however is 28-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Radford won 17 of last 19 games in being Big South champs. They play good defense in giving up just 39.7 percent, yet are vulnerable to three point shooting, surrendering eight a game.

California vs Maryland 2:55E Line – Cal -1, 140

California being in the tournament was a surprise, having a new coach and losing Ryan Anderson from last year. Coach Mike Montgomery is a proven commodity and he molded this group into a good unit that values possessions and takes good shots. The Bears led the nation in three-point accuracy at 43.4 percent and are 12-3 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Maryland often plays like a gang of one with guard Greivis Vasquez, as do-everything performer. It’s funny how coach Gary Williams is receiving so much credit for maximizing the talent on hand with not much there, didn’t he recruit them? The Terps are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record past the midpoint of the season the last two years and are benefiting from the play Adrian Bowie and Dave Neal late in the season.

Connecticut vs Chattanooga 3:00E Line –UConn -20.5, 145

Connecticut doesn’t figure to have any problems with Chattanooga, but might down the line. If guard A.J. Price isn’t hitting three’s, not many options to prevent teams from packing it in around the lane against the Huskies. Connecticut will want to be able to go to its potent frontcourt players; however are 3-12 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 or more points. Chattanooga benefited from playing conference tournament at home and the three wins put them over .500 (18-16) for the season. The Mocs too often were sloppy in ball-handling, which helped contribute to opposing teams to scoring 76 points against them. Chattanooga has failed to cover 15 of last 22 times they were underdogs.

Washington vs Mississippi State 5:00E Line – Washington -6, 148.5

Washington won Pac-10 title for the first time in 56 years and prefers to play fast, with diminutive guards Justin Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas. Both can really scoot and help Huskies score easy transition points. Jon Brockman is a double-double waiting to happen and Quincy Pondexter is now the player most expected out of high school. Washington is 7-0 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season and got to the free throw line more than any other conference team. How far can Mississippi State go on three days rest, having to travel to Portland, after winning four games in four days in SEC tourney? We’re about to find out and the ball will be in the hands of freshman Dee Bost. The Bulldogs aren’t bashful about jacking up long range shots, averaging 23 per game beyond the arc, making eight per outing. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS as neutral site underdogs, with the human eraser Jarvis Varnado guarding the rim.

Cashing in on the Louisville Money-Making Express

Coach Rick Pitino is a truly unique individual, he gets life. Not just in the basketball sense, but on broader subjects. Of course he wrote the obligatory basketball book - Full-court Pressure: A Year in Kentucky Basketball, when he was at Lexington, on his way to winning national championship. However, his scope is much larger, with books like – Success is a Choice and Lead to Success, telling stories how to overachieve and be a great leader in business and in life. Though no known new book is forthcoming, the title would be easy to identify for astute followers of Pitino at Louisville - Finding Success Betting the Big East.

In what arguably has been the toughest conference in college basketball over the last three years, Coach Pitino’s team’s are 38-10 the last three years in the regular season in the conference and an astonishing 36-11-1 against the spread. That is +23.9 units of profit playing some of the fiercest competition any team can face.

The Cardinals (21-5, 16-10 ATS) are one of four teams with a pair of losses in the Big East, still with hopes of trying to win the league regular season title. Louisville has won and covered three in a row since running into the Notre Dame buzz saw on the road. Louisville responded with home wins over DePaul and Providence by a combined 63 points and overcame a good Cincinnati team on there home court 72-63, as 5.5-point favorites, which even impressed the coach.

“I think our passing has gotten better,” Pitino said. “We made some excellent passes. We executed great against their full-court pressure. We just played a terrific game.”

Louisville will play a second straight conference road game at ghastly Georgetown (14-11, 7-13-1 ATS). The Cardinals make every sports bettor giddy, with their 22-4 ATS road record since 2007. Part of the Cards success has come in the second month of the year, where they are 17-4 against the oddsmakers number. With Pitino’s books being about learning to build success the right way, his teams the last three years are 15-4 ATS off a road win.

Coach John Thompson III might have gone to Amazon.com and picked up enough copies of Pitino’s books and handed them out to his players once the new year arrived. Georgetown was supposed to be run of the mill in conference, but after knocking then No.1 Connecticut at there place to raise record to 10-1, hopes of Hoyas uprising were taking place. Similar to the euphoria of President Barack Obama taking up residence in nearly Washington, D.C., reality set in and problems arose.

If any team has a weaknesses, conference opponents will be the ones to expose them and Georgetown ended up with a Pandora’s boxful. The Hoyas have lost eight of 10 (1-8-1 ATS) and are 4-10 and 2-11-1 ATS since hitting 2009. When asked if he thought this was a difficult season, Thompson offered these thoughts.

“Period. Not just at Georgetown,” Thompson said. “But we’ll get through this. Yeah, it’s trying. But we’re going to do what we do. We’re going to try to get better from the top on down.” The Hoyas are 5-9 and 3-11 ATS in the Big East.

Despite the problems, oddsmakers haven’t written off Georgetown, as they opened as a one-point underdog with a total of 130 at many sportsbooks. When checking different angles, it’s not easy to support G-Town, since they are 0-8 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3. The Cardinals would look to be in a more favorable position with 13-2 ATS mark as road favorite or pick and 8-1 ATS if the number is six or less.

Angles, trends and book sales don’t win games, players and coaches do. ESPN will have the next story unfold for both teams at 7 Eastern on Big Monday, with likely many bettors waiting for Pitino’s club to add another winning chapter.

Jim Kruger Studies College Basketball Futures

Growing up, my brother and I would watch the Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson. One of our favorite guests was Criswell, a strange sounding character who predicted the future. Carson would have him on in December to tell his viewing audience what bizarre things were going to happen in the coming year. Being little kids, we believed Criswell and were sure his predictions would come true.

Little did we know that Criswell was a bit off-kilter and being extremely odd was what had made him famous. You may recall him acting in probably the worst movie of all time, “Plan 9 from Outer Space”. It is so bad it actually is entertaining.

To his credit, Criswell did announce several months before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated that JFK would not run for re-election because of something that would happen to him in November, 1963. And, while he also predicted years in advance the election of then actor Ronald Reagan as Governor of California, the prediction I remember the most on Carson was that blind cockroaches would be found on the west coast. I was amazed by that and for the next year asked my mother every week if she had heard about any new important discoveries concerning cockroaches.

In a basic sense, betting on sports is predicting the future. You are trying to make money by predicting the outcome of an event, or even something pertaining to an entire season, a true futures bet. Not only can you bet on who is going to win a national championship, but even who will win a division or conference. Many sportsbooks have futures wagers on who will win the home run race, the Cy Young Award, MVP, etc.

A friend of mine showed me a futures ticket he had for Arizona to win the Super Bowl. After Arizona beat Atlanta, he placed a $600 wager to win 18 dimes, 30 to 1 odds, on the Cards being crowned the next world champions.

I love to bet season wins in sports and do so every year with quite a very good success rate. Since I am already tying up a chunk of change for an entire season on my season wins bets, I normally don’t make many futures wagers, also. However, after my friend Dan showed me that ticket, I have changed my attitude.

When you consider that a recent spat of unlikely candidates have won league and even national championships, such as Tampa Bay in Major League Baseball last year or the Boston Celtics, which started out last spring with 125 to 1 odds to win it all in the NBA, why not devote more time in looking for potential winners other than your early favorites. Since there is no time like the present, let’s start by looking at candidates to win the 2009 College Basketball Championship.

To start this selection process, I wanted to see what type of numbers in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency teams that had been very successful in the tournament the past five years. Instead of just taking the teams who had made it to the Final Four, I added the Elite Eight teams into the data sample also. Games involving Elite Eight teams can sometimes go either way as the competition is so keen and the skill set of each team is so good. I did not include Sweet 16 teams as there is a higher chance of luck for a team to make it that far as compared to getting to the Elite Eight. Sometimes higher-seeded teams get upset and help clear a path to the Sweet 16 for some squads that truly don’t meet up to the standards of a team deserving to make it to the final eight.

Besides offensive efficiency, the number of points scored per 100 offensive possessions, and defensive efficiency, the number a team allows, I calculated the difference between the two by subtracting the DE from the OE. I marked the lowest rating of each category from the teams who had made it to the Final Four over the past five years. From this year’s current ratings, I listed any team who was equal or better than those minimum rating for OE, DE, and the difference between OE and DE. The minimum I used for each category was the following:
Category:

Minimum RatingOffensive Efficiency: 109.9

Defensive Efficiency: 90.0

Difference OE vs. DE: 20.0

Under this year’s rankings, there were 52 teams that qualified under offensive efficiency, 28 had low enough defensive efficiency numbers, and 36 had a good enough differential between OE and DE to make the list.

The next step was to see what teams made all three lists. Many teams were on two of the qualifying lists but not all three. The biggest downfall for most teams was their failure to have a good enough DE rating. Baylor had the fourth best offense at the time of this article but was only 86th in defense. Notre Dame was #6 offensively but even worse than Baylor in DE, # 166.
A few squads made the cut on defense but fell miserably short offensively. Southern California was the fifteenth best defense but only #77 on offense. Washington State was #12 on DE but a mediocre #146 on OE.

There were sixteen teams that made the minimum requirements in all three categories. These are my potential Final Four teams. From this pool, I will select what teams to place bets to win it all. They are in order by their differential rating. I also included the odds as listed by sportsbook.com to win it all. Futures odds vary greatly. At the Stations Casinos in Vegas, posted on their intranet betting service for Nevada residents, they have North Carolina at 5 to 6, Wake Forest at 7 to 1, and a huge difference with Gonzaga at 6 to 1.

Rank, Team, Differential, Odds

1. Duke: 34.35 (7 to 1)

2. North Carolina: 33.86 (2.25 to 1)

3. Pittsburgh: 31.63 (7 to 1)

4. Missouri: 30.06 (100 to 1)

5. Gonzaga: 30 (30 to 1)

6. Arizona St.: 29.54 (35 to 1)

7. Connecticut: 29.27 (6 to 1)

8. Georgetown: 28.51 (50 to 1)

9. West Virginia: 28.4 (100 to 1)

10. Wake Forest: 25.8 (14 to 1)

11. Illinois: 24.42 (50 to 1)

12. Xavier: 24.23 (80 to 1)

13. Washington: 23.59 (50 to 1)

14. Kentucky: 22.93 (40 to 1)

15. Utah: 21.84 (250 to 1)

16. Villanova: 21.45 (100 to 1)

There are five Big East representatives, three from the ACC, two are Pac-10 squads, and six teams representing six different conferences.

What was surprising was that so few of Southeastern Schools showed up in the cream of the crop in any of the categories. Outside of Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida were on the OE and the Differential lists but failed to have a good enough DE number. With Florida standing at #76 defensively and Tennessee even lower at #104, the chances are very slim they will qualify defensively.

Four teams, three from the Big 12, are already on two of the three lists and are very close to having good enough marks on all three to qualify for making the potential Final Four group. Kansas is the closest needing only .03 of an improvement defensively. Oklahoma needs to improve their defense by 1.50 to join the FF qualifiers. Needing better offensive numbers are Texas, 2.17 points short, and Memphis, only 1.51 lacking.

Next week I will unveil my futures bets and discuss the different teams chances of being the next national champ.

Oh, and you might make a note of this on your calendar. Shortly before his death in 1982, Criswell predicted the end of the world would happen on the Winter Solstice in the year 2012. Of course he did not clarify whether he was predicting that would happen on the Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, which happens in late December, or for the Southern Hemisphere, which rolls around in late June. Maybe the end of the world will happen in two stages with only a half going first and the second half following suit six months later. Maybe by then, we will have found those blind cockroaches.

Jim Kruger is from Vegas Sports Authority and also writes for StatFox.com.