NFL Draft Winners and Losers for upcoming season

The National Football League’s prime time draft was a rating success and much like Wal-Mart, obliterated the competition for sports television ratings, sending NBA commish David Stern a chilling message about what people prefer to watch this time of year.

Though the most football experts say the actual results of the draft won’t be known for a few years after everyone chosen can be evaluated thoroughly, that however is not the world we live in. It’s with a great of certainty the History Channel does score well for viewership or hits on-line with the under 30 crowd, unless it was something their parents had talked about.

With that idea in mind, here’s what teams could be impacted this upcoming year both positively and negatively.

Winners

It would have been hard for St. Louis to screw this up. Sam Bradford is their franchise signal caller and presumably they will have him start by sometime in October, if not sooner. OT Rodger Saffold will help adding depth and Bradford protection in the offensive line and WR Mardy Gilyard has good hands and an aggressive attitude. If seventh round pick George Selvie played like he did as sophomore and junior on the defensive line at South Florida, the Rams got a steal.

The first year for GM John Schneider and Pete Carroll in Seattle could hardly have gone better. OT Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas were two coveted players and they landed them both. Before the draft they maneuvered to acquire Charley Whitehurst as quarterback, that is still a wait and see development, but is a better choice over aging Matt Hasselbeck. If WR Golden Tate becomes more disciplined route runner, he will catch anything near him and be home run threat. CB Walter Thurmond might be theft in the fourth round if he stays healthy. The additions of LenDale White and Leon Washington will add far greater versatility to offensive backfield with minimal damage to future drafts.

This is not a misprint, seemingly in spite of themselves the Oakland Raiders not only didn’t screw up their picks, and they might actually benefit from them. Al Davis finally took a real football player in the first round in MLB Rolando McClain. Though most had him going a bit later in the first round, he adds size and instincts in the heart of the defense behind Richard Seymour. The Raiders evidently even had a plan, trading former MLB Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville for speedy (4.28) Clemson WR Jacoby Ford. Bruce Campbell was “combine king” in Indianapolis and has potential to be special in the offensive line and they didn’t take him with first pick to boot. Not sure if Jason Campbell will ever amount to more than what he already is, but JaMarcus Russell’s football future is now up to him. Don’t be surprised it Oakland demands the former top pick takes a MONSTER pay cut and if he refuses, he’d be lucky to get a month of free meals at Applebee’s for a contract as free agent, let alone cash for the money he’s stolen.

Honorable mention – Miami, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets and Baltimore

Losers

What was Jacksonville thinking or were they? The Jaguars selected California’s Tyson Alualu with the 10th overall pick and not one accredited draft expert had him higher than 25th, meaning if Jacksonville was uncertain about what to do, they could have traded down, picked up another selection and still gotten Alualu. Larry Hart, Austen Lee and D’Anthony Smith are all potential defensive disrupters, but their impact would appear to be minimal this upcoming year.

Minnesota has defensive backfield needs and didn’t address them in the most positive way, settling for CB Chris Cook from Virginia, who ran a slowish-time at the combine. USC pass rusher Everson Griffin slipped to the fourth round, so either the Vikings got exceptional value for this player with first round ability or he is underachiever and won’t amount to much. It didn’t matter who drafted Toby Gearhart, questions on both sides were going to be raised. It just happened Minnesota choose him and the world will find out soon enough if he is a quality football player or if the numbers on speed and upright running style means limited career.

Hard to call Tennessee a loser in this spot, because their top picks are in many ways coach Jeff Fisher-type players. Nevertheless, each coming out of college has athletic limitations, without having the proverbial “upside”. Derrick Morgan is high effort player, but not gifted athlete. WR Damian Williams has trouble eluding jams off the line of scrimmage and will try and be difference-maker as punt returner. LB Rennie Curran tackles everything he sees, the issue is what he sees at 5’10. Safety Myron Rolle IS the smartest player in the draft (Rhodes Scholar at Oxford), but coaches at this level wonder about a player that wants to be a surgeon, unless he is cutting up opposing wide receivers.

Dishonorable mention – Chicago, San Diego and Cleveland

Unbeaten Indy looks to tame Jaguars

Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.

The Setup

The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesn’t want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts’ tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in ’09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.

Why Watch

In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team won’t willingly “try not to win” and “those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season”. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.

Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.

Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.

Why Wager

Colts backers know how good they’ve been on the road, and though this isn’t a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.

The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rio’s defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.

Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has the Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.

What Happens

Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.

Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.

The Outcome

3DW ratings picks Indianapolis by 11


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

Let's knock'em Sunday

We fashioned our third straight 2-1 day, which is great, however still pushing for that 3-0 figure. Let’s begin hopefully another Best System play that is 29-5 ATS the last five years. The Top System is in an AFC South matchup and the Free Play will be here momentarily or as soon as I get it posted. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – That getting up this early after hosting a Christmas party, I don’t have my usual wit and charm. (Some of you might question that to begin with) What I’m trying to say is I’m tired.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Tampa Bay after one or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage of 25 percent or less of their games, in the second half of the season. This baby comes in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent since 2005. (3-0 TY)

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Fifteen members of the Left Coast Connection are on Tennessee with nobody taking the Colts. Honestly, I find that curious.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Here’s the deal, if you bet for or against the Carolina Panthers and lose, it’s your fault, since you’ve been warned. Jake Delhomme has a stranglehold on this franchise and his remarkably inconsistent play has bettors improving Rogaine sales, pulling their hair out.

After Delhomme continued last year’s playoff meltdown by throwing seven interceptions in first three games, all Carolina losses, coach John Fox said the he was his quarterback (since he didn’t have another on the roster that was any better). The Panthers offense live and running backs put a band-aid on the problem by winning three of next four games, and Delhomme actually went three games without a pick.

After last week’s loss to the Jets, it’s clear the “bad” Jake is back. He threw four absolutely lame interceptions against the Jets in 17-6 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. He threw more passes off his back foot against the Flyboys secondary; he actually wore out two heels on his right shoe in 34 pass attempts. In his last two games, Jake is 33-78 for 357 yards and has two TD’s and five picks. His quarterback ratings for those two contests have been 60.3 and 12.7. As stated, you been warned.

If you wondered how 6-5 Jacksonville could possibly attain a winning record, you have plenty of company. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL with a positive record that has allowed more points than they have scored and by a rather large margin (202-255). Don’t expect them to be around come playoff time.

The Arizona and Tennessee contest ended being the betting game of the week. The Titans had largely opened as one-point home favorites and it drifted up to two points by Saturday. Just as the first NFL games were kicking off Sunday, word started filtering out that Kurt Warner was not going to play. That led to a rush of Tennessee money pouring in with many bettors having the Titans as -3 or those who came at game time at -3.5. As we know, Vince Young threw a touchdown on last play of the game and those holding Cardinals tickets lost for the most part, while many Titans backers were hung at -3.5, while those that held -3 or +3 got their money back.

Week 12 of the NFL was the first time in five weeks the favorites had a winning spread record (9-7) and for the fourth time in five weeks, the UNDER was the play overall.

Last Friday was the big shopping day known as Black Friday. For college football bettors who prefer favorites, the term took on another meaning as the chalk was 3-8-1 ATS and for the weekend they were 17-31-1 ATS, their worst showing percentage-wise since Week 5 of last season (16-30-1 ATS).

From an entertainment perspective, rivalry week was awesome and more like it used to be several years ago when underdogs were dependable plays when matched against their biggest rival.

Time to call out Pete Carroll as a hypocrite. After engaging and questioning Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh about going for two-points trying to get to a half a hundred against his Trojans, two weeks later USC threw TD bomb in the last minute to score a needless touchdown in 28-7 win over city rival UCLA. What made it all the more unusual is sometimes word gets to coaches about alumni having large wagers on certain games and they wouldn’t mind if the coach scored one more to make sure the donors are happy. That didn’t appear to be the case here since USC opened at -14, but were bet down quickly from there.

Know your Football Numbers-

Winning as a road underdog in the NFL is a big deal this season. This has been a real confidence booster for these clubs since they are 20-10-2 ATS in next game. We’re seeing a modest resurgence of an old favorite in the NFL, playing on teams off exactly three ATS losses. Their record is 11-6 ATS in 2009 and Seattle could be a potential play, but they had a bye week in the mix, which knocks them out.

My pal Steve Makinen wrote an article recently stating some stats are more dependable than others when addressing the NFL and he mentioned yards per point. Since week 4 (what I use as starting point), teams that were in the top 5 for that week and not playing another team in the same group, are respectable 20-15-1 ATS. Those teams in the bottom five after rocky 6-12 ATS start are 13-6 against the spread. Also of interest, when a bottom five team plays a top five team in YPPT, they are 4-3 ATS, having covered last four. Click here to see this week’s teams.

Turnovers are the one aspect college football bettors can’t truly account for. However, this season there has been one area you can at least receive some help. Teams that have committed five or more turnovers are 24-12-1 ATS if they play the following week and squads that force five or more miscues are 28-19-1 ATS if they play the next weekend.

Bringing our Sunday Best

I have so much respect for Sal I played SMU just because of his skill, even though I didn’t like the game at all and I got what I deserved. Overall a disappointing 1-2 record as underdogs again ruled the day for the most part. For Week 12 of the NFL, we’ll see if we can find another Best System winner that is 86.7 percent. The Jaguars are among the leading contenders in the AFC for the wild card despite being outscored on the season. The Top Trend checks in on them. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – It’s been a few years, but wasn’t it great as a viewer to watch so many compelling college football games? The rivalry game aspect has not been as interesting the last few years, but it made up for lost time with one amazing finish or upset after another. Truly a memorable couple of days.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like Arizona after a game where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. Going back five seasons, this system is 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent, which includes the 3-0 record this year.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-12 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall has hit 12 of last 16 NFL plays and likes Atlanta to punish Tampa Bay at home.

Seeking the Big Bounce Back

Hoy Cow, got kicked around but good yesterday with 0-4 record. We’ll look to bounce back immediately, starting with NFL system that is 86.6 percent. The Top Trend is once again perfect, just in the opposite direction. Sal is back and gives out his top play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I’ve been getting my can kicked in college football (below.500) and was talking to friend from Las Vegas whom I haven’t spoken to since early September. He’s up on all happenings on the betting scene in the town and he had a very interesting observation about college football. He said guys that are math-based handicappers are having a below average to bad years (that would be me), but streak players or guys that fly from the seat of their pants are doing quite well, because how they look at numbers and situations is different and things have gone their way.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites off a bye week that lost by four or less points in their last outing as a favorite. Since 1990, this system is 13-2 ATS and is focused on the Giants this week.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, losing by more than two points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) One of my favorite guys in Sal, who is on 14-5 roll in the NFL, including his sweet call on Miami on Thursday. Today he doesn’t care what the price is on the Chargers, take them.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed NFL Game of the Week.

The Platinum Sheet has an expert hitting 57 percent ATS picking ALL NFL games.

Dressed for Sunday Success

We came up 1.5-points short of going 4-0 in CFB this week and instead settled for 3-1. I searched everywhere but couldn’t find a great system, but found a damn good one at 78.4 percent. The Top Trend is in division dandy and Ken off a brilliant Saturday looks to continue winning ways with his Top Play as Free Pick. Good luck

What I thought yesterday – What the hell happened to Colt McCoy, the Notre Dame defense, the USC offense, the Georgia defense, BYU and when does a team bring back ONE starter on defense start 3-0 (Cincinnati)? Special thanks to the Mangino’s for the late cover over Duke.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This non-qualifying system is 40-11, ATS over the last 26 years at 78.4 percent and shows Kansas City and Jacksonville as the Play Against teams.

Free Football Trend -2) The Atlanta Falcons are 1-12 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LLC was perfect 6-0 yesterday and is playing Da Raaiders today with the +3.

Check out today’s Guaranteed NFL Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 14-2 ATS last week in NFL.

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Week 3 is sneak peek into the start of NFL regular season

This is the week most NFL coaches enjoy in August, having preparation that is most similar to what the regular season will be like in a couple of weeks. For the most part, the starters will play in the third quarter and the intensity level is relatively high for football played this month, with jobs on the line at various positions and teams wanting to make a good showing. Week 3 starts with three contests, all with their own unique flavor.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

If this was a TMZ.com piece, Michael Vick would be splashed all over and quotes and pictures would be seen. However this isn’t TMZ, this is about sports betting and what could lie ahead for a pair of teams without a preseason victory. Teams that don’t win a game in the preseason have averaged 7.3 wins a year once the real season begins since 1997, which is well below the expectations for both these clubs. Even worse, only one of the last 11 teams that were 0 for the preseason has made the playoffs. (Thanks Mr. East of Playbook.com for that info)


Jacksonville has lost there two games by a total four points and could just as easily be 2-0, be it for a bit more offensive execution. Quarterback David Garrard has looked sharp and receiver Troy Williamson has been exceptional opposite of Torry Holt as the Jaguars new receivers’ core. The Jacksonville running game needs to find another gear after producing 127 yards the first two games. The Jags head to Philly as 7.5-point underdogs according to Bookmaker.com and they are 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Coach Andy Reid stated Donovan McNabb will play the first three quarters and Kevin Kolb the final 15 minutes, but Mr. Vick will see time with the starters. The impression one has is Reid wants to start having upcoming regular season opponents start game-planning for the Eagles newest weapon. Of greatest concern to Philadelphia is the projected offense line starters have not played one down together and they are unlikely too this week either. Philly is only 2-7 ATS in third game of preseason.

Miami at Tampa Bay

This Fox nationally televised contest will have a Florida flavor with the Dolphins at Tampa Bay. Miami has looked impressive in first starts and though Chad Pennington is the clear starter at quarterback, back-up Chad Henne is looking like the future of Fins football. He’s been confident and a real leader and his passes have more zip on them, something not seen since the guy doing the Nutri-System commercials was wearing a Miami helmet. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively (129.5 yards per game) and the defensive line has contained opponents rushing attack. Curious to see if Tampa Bay goes after Dolphins safeties who are vulnerable to the pass. The Fish are 2.5-point underdogs and are 23-15-2 ATS in this spot.

Tampa Bay has split a pair of contests, winning as underdog last week against Jacksonville and is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. New head coach Raheem Morris has not named a starting quarterback yet, with the front office putting out feelers to find out what Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich could bring back in trade. Both have obvious limitations and top pick Josh Freeman isn’t ready. Indecision is not good and the Bucs are 1-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Whatever appeal this game has is lessened by the fact both starting quarterbacks might not see any action. Carson Palmer has an ankle issue and Marc Bulger a finger problem. That means a heavy dose J.T. O'Sullivan for Cincinnati and St. Louis counters with Kyle Boller.

The Bengals first unit has moved the ball no matter who has played quarterback and is averaging 6.4 yards per play. It has been breakdowns at the wrong times that have stalled drives and left them without any points. Expect this to be an area coach Marvin Lewis wants more production from, for a squad that is 1-7 ATS in Week 3.

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs and have a lot to shore up before regular season begins. The entire defense has made multiple miscues in understanding new coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’s been preaching "Get low and stick 'em" tackling, however too many defenders have fallen back to old ways and it will just take time. St. Louis is a sickly 1-9 ATS off a home loss.

Week 17 NFL Betting Info

At this juncture we know the New York Giants, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta are in the playoffs, with the latter two still not having a firm spots based on positioning. This means that seven positions have to be filled on Sunday and a total of nine need specific placements before we can say with certainty after the Sunday Night game, which teams are in or out. This week can be as tough as any for NFL bettors in the regular season with so many possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll eliminate what ties mean as possibilities in accessing playoff chances. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 17 numbers.

Miami at New York Jets (Jets -2.5, 43)

The Dolphins win AFC East with a win and the Jets win division with victory and New England loss.

Keys to the Game-
Chad Pennington can stick it to his former team, for not having faith in him to be playoff quarterback. Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road and HUGE key to their success protecting the football. If they commit one or less turnovers, they will break the NFL's single-season record for fewest turnovers in a season. The Dolphins red zone defense needs to hold up one more game, already the best in 53.3 in stopping opponents from scoring touchdown. Can Miami overcome 5-15 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss? The Jets are long shot and they know it, but better to take somebody down with you. Brett Favre has looked every bit of 39 years old since the colder temperatures have developed and he has to have big game for New York to even have chance. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in season finales.

New England at Buffalo (Bills +5.5, 39)

New England win the AFC East with a win and Miami loss or makes the playoffs with a win and Baltimore loss.

Keys to the Game-
New England has gotten off to flying starts the last two weeks and can take Buffalo out of the game early with another quick start. Matt Cassel is playing exceptionally and the defense has looked better with stronger pass rush. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less and must contain Buffalo special teams or this gets dicey. Bill Belicheck’s defense needs to harass QB Trent Edwards into mistakes, if they do, New England moves to 11-6 and 11-5-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (Ravens -11, 37.5)

Baltimore clinches wild card berth with a win or if Miami and New England lose.

Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville could be dangerous opponent for Baltimore, playing with nothing to lose and being huge underdogs. The Ravens will want to break the Jaguars will and have to take away their running game, while running the pigskin themselves with second ranked run offense at 150.3 yards per game. Baltimore needs to kick-start Willis McGahee, since he is true inside-outside runner, compared to Le’Ron McClain. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS on the season and is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win since 2006.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (Vikings -7, 42)

Minnesota wins NFC North with a win or Chicago loss.

Keys to the Game-
The Giants has clinched what they needed and might not bring best effort, but that doesn’t mean Tom Coughlin won’t have his team compete, especially with a week off. Minnesota must reestablish Adrian Peterson, who has been a bobbling machine in recent weeks. They need him to protect the ball better, yet not be too conservative a running threat. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson went back to making poor decisions last week at crucial times, the Giants are too good not take advantage of his mistakes. Jackson must be astute in the passing game. Atlanta only has 98 yards rushing, nonetheless had 32 attempts in the Metrodome, this can’t happen again against the Giants or they move to 15-2 ATS facing teams with winning records.

Chicago at Houston (Texans -3, 46.5)

Chicago wins NFC North with a victory and Minnesota loss or takes Wild Card with win and Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose.

Keys to the Game-
Chicago swept their three-game homestand, yet was far from impressive, especially in the latter two. The last two games were overtime wins versus New Orleans and Green Bay and they were out-gained 670 to 436 total yards. Houston came up flat after four consecutive wins and five covers in a row at Oakland. They will want to finish .500 and have best ever home record at 6-2. The Bears either will have to keep up scoring wise with the Texans averaging 25 points per game at home or cling to the ball with time of possession and ring up enough points. Chicago desperately needs a pass rush on what should be a fast track to offset the talented Texans perimeter game. The Bears are 8-19 ATS versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and must come up big.

Carolina at New Orleans (Saints +1.5, 51.5)

Carolina clinches NFC South and first round bye with a win or Atlanta loss. A defeat and Atlanta victory sends them to the Wild Card round next week.

Keys to the Game-
Talk about your tough situations for Carolina! A victory means a week off, followed by a home game for the Panthers. A loss means playing on the road next week on the presumption Atlanta handles St. Louis, saddled with two straight defeats. This has to be accomplished against a live home underdog who has won four of six, with the two losses totaling six points. The Saints will be throwing the ball around; with Drew Brees chasing Dan Marino’s season passing yards record. This means Julius Peppers and the front four must bring pressure, with the Saints gunning for them. Though Jake Delhomme could likely hit a few deep shots with Steve Smith versus Saints secondary, Carolina would be better served to run the ball and limit their possessions. The Cats are 40-16 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 24 or more points a game.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -13, 39.5)

Tampa Bay clinches Wild Card with a win and Dallas defeat.

Keys to the Game-
Tampa Bay should win this game by running the ball and having Jeff Garcia pick apart Oakland with short passes. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin should have fun dialing up blitzes against JaMarcus Russell. Only concern here is covering big number for a Bucs team that has lost three in a row. Maybe the Raiders 0-7 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two years will help.

Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -1, 42.5)

Dallas clinches Wild Card with a win or Chicago and Tampa Bay both lose. Philadelphia clinches Wild Card with win and losses by Tampa Bay, Minnesota and or Chicago.

Keys to the Game-
It would behoove an emotionally fragile team like Dallas to play well early against an Eagles squad that's sure to be fired up. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 82-50 in the opening 15 minutes. The Cowboys have to pick up the Eagles blitzes and Tony Romo can not continue to play like an average Joe quarterback. Defensively, Dallas had been solid until last week, they need to control Brian Westbrook and make Donovan McNabb jumpy in the pocket. The Boys are stellar 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Philadelphia gave up on the running game again too easily in loss to Washington. With the Eagles wide receivers dropping seven catch-able passes last week, the receivers focus has to be improved no matter who is available. The defense has to harass Romo who has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions in two December meetings with Philly. The Birds are 8-1 ATS off a NFC East loss rival over the last three years.

Do the Jaguars Have Bite as a Home Underdog?

A year after winning a dozen games, including one in the postseason, and reaching the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, nobody predicted Jacksonville would fall so precipitously to 5-9 after beating Green Bay. Buried in last place in the AFC South, the Jaguars own poor numbers that reflect their position in the standings. The Jaguars are 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing defense, T-17th in sacks and a turnover ratio of minus-2.

Jacksonville (4-10 ATS), which split its first six games, has won just two of seven at home heading into this Thursday night game at Municipal Stadium. After topping Detroit, 31-21, the Colts have the longest current winning streak in the NFL—seven games—and are approaching their seventh straight trip to the playoffs.

The Jaguars have been chasing Indianapolis (10-4, 5-8-1 ATS) ever since the NFL went to its current division format in 2002 and pitted them as rivals in the AFC South. But that’s not to say these teams have been separated by a wide margin. Even though Jacksonville trails the all-time series, 11-4, all but five of the matchups have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, with the Jaguars 9-3-1 ATS in last dozen meetings.

Indianapolis is one of five teams the Jaguars have beaten this season. It happened in Week 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Fred Taylor, who two weeks ago passed O.J. Simpson on the all-time rushing list, moving into 16th place, rushed for 121 yards and Maurice Jones-Drew added 107 yards and a touchdown to lead Jacksonville to a 23-21 victory in one of their highlight victories of the season. Quarterback David Garrard completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The Colts knocked Garrard out of the first of two meetings a year ago when they rolled to an easy 29-7 victory in Week 7 as three-point road favorites. Garrard left in the second quarter with an ankle injury and former backup Quinn Gray was picked off twice and held to 56 yards passing on 24 attempts. Seven weeks later, a healthy Garrard (257 yards, two touchdowns) and Peyton Manning (288, 4 TDs) hooked up in an old-fashioned shootout also won by Indianapolis, 28-25, failing to cover the touchdown favorite role.

Both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio received hefty offseason contracts, and neither has delivered in the first year of the deal. Just last week Garrard eclipsed 3,000 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-10, and Del Rio has been unable to keep problems from spilling out of the locker room.

For the most part, the Colts bring out the best in the Jaguars. Typically they give a great effort and Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS as December dogs against AFC South foes. It will be interesting to see if the Jags use a similar offensive game plan as last week, using tight ends in short passing game and throwing deeper passes to Dennis Northcutt, who had first 100-yard receiving game in four years last week. Jacksonville has not covered consecutive games since weeks 15 and 16 last season.

Bookmaker.com has the Colts as six-point pick, with the total lodged at 44. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS as road favorite of six or less with revenge, plus 14-3 against the spread after two straight wins by 10 or more points.

Normally at this time, Indy has wrapped up division and is healing injuries for playoffs. Not this year and despite the Jaguars record, this will be good test for Colts run defense, which appears improved, however facing Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit might be a bigger reason why they look better. Amazingly, Tony Dungy’s club is only 1-10 ATS versus weaker defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

This will be the final Thursday night telecast on the NFL Network for this season, which will start at usual 8:15 Eastern time. This series is like Charley Brown and Lucy, with Jacksonville being the underdog for the 16th time in a row facing the Colts.

Does Sean Avery Deserve a Break?

Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me. Unfortunately for the cantankerous Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery, the playground proverb did not hold up in the NHL court of conduct.

Two weeks ago prior to a game against Calgary, Commissioner Gary Bettman cold-cocked Avery with a six-game suspension after making “comments detrimental to the league” regarding his ex-girlfriends and fellow hockey players.

Here is Avery’s statement in its entirety: “I'm really happy to be back in Calgary; I love Canada. I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about, but enjoy the game tonight.”

The 28-year old Avery, who just signed a four-year 15.5 million dollar contract with Dallas, offered “building excitement” for the game that evening as his alibi. Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert is Avery’s old flame and is currently dating Calgary defenseman Dion Phaneuf.

Sounds about right to me…one hockey player talking trash about his opponent’s girlfriend in hopes of getting into his head and getting a rise out of him for some quality entertainment? Isn’t that why hockey fans go to games anyway? To watch these men on skates beat each other’s brains out? And they walk away disappointed if the gloves don’t drop at least once a night.

I am not trying to defend that what Sean Avery said was copacetic. His remarks were off-color and no professional athlete should leverage his status to speak in a derogative manner toward anyone – especially women. These guys are privileged to be playing sports for millions of dollars and most don’t possess the intelligence to make a comment without offending someone so they should keep their mouths shut.

But I am going to argue that Avery’s punishment was not reasonable.

Let’s examine a couple of the most recent suspensions handed out in the National Hockey League. On November 14, New York Islanders defenseman Thomas Pock was banned five games for an ill-advised elbow to the head of Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Shannon. The blow concussed Shannon and he does not recall the incident. Days later, a two-game suspension was placed on the New Jersey Devils Mike Mottau for a hit that put his victim out of commission for 12 weeks with head and leg injuries.

These guys do a lot more than talking on the ice and the sticks they use do break bones. But Sean Avery gets six games for two words?

Precedent set in a league surrounded in criminal turmoil seems to be even softer. Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson slaps a woman in the face at a bar and only got suspended a single game. Matt Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars got caught cutting up lines of cocaine with a Wal-Mart card in a parking lot and is disciplined with a three-game banishment.

Did Sean Avery carry a weapon into a public setting, did he physically attack another person or test positive for any kind of illegal drug? No. In an attempt to possibly be humorous, he made a remark about his former love affairs.

What happened to freedom of speech in this country?

Plus, it isn’t like this is the first time (or last) a celebrity has made her way around NHL locker rooms. Remember Anna Kournikova? I’m sure there was worse said about her among the hockey sewing circles, maybe just not publicly.

In 2004 the outspoken wife of MLB pitcher Kris Benson told Howard Stern on his radio show that if her hubby was ever unfaithful to her and got caught, she would have sex with the entire Mets team – including the bat boys. Anna Benson’s remarks were not crude but amusing. Probably not something you want the kids to overhear, much like Avery’s, but not much different than something they might encounter on late night cable.

Avery’s first game eligible to return from suspension would be tonight against the Phoenix Coyotes but he won’t be in the Dallas Stars locker room come game time.

As of Sunday, the organization has decided to part ways with Avery. Details of Avery’s termination are still up in the air but the Stars could trade him (if any teams have interest), send him to the minor leagues or buy out his contract next summer.

Since entering the league in 2001, Sean Avery has quickly become what Dennis Rodman was to the NBA during his tenure. An agitator, the most-hated player in hockey and some have even called him an embarrassment to the sport.

Avery is currently dealing with his personal problems. In addition to the six-game suspension, Avery was requested to enter a 10-day anger counseling and treatment program where he is addressing his “who gives a crap” attitude.

But the NHL and Commissioner Bettman crossed the blue line of injustice while handling this matter.

Forget about the six games without pay, they might have cost an athlete his future in professional hockey. Many, many athletes have done far worse and have received far less in terms of punishment.

I think he deserves another chance. After all of this, maybe Sean Avery has learned to clean up some of his own sloppiness.


Scott Cooley is a freelance write and make contributions at 3Daily Winners and other locales. If you agree or disagree let Scott know here.

First Monday Night Home Game for Texans

In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.

Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread on Sept.28. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.

The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn). This was just the Texans second road win and cover in 13 games.

The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.

Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September. Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns. Playing against Jacksonville is a real boost of confidence for Houston, who is 7-6 and 10-3 ATS versus the Jags.

Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7 with 3-8 against the spread record. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced again.

Garrard has failed to continue the success and progression from a year ago and has only nine touchdown passes through 11 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as a three-point favorite, with a total of 48. This will be only the third time the Texans have been favored in this series in 13 meetings, thou they were an expansion team early on. With Monday night games on 12-1 OVER roll this season, this one is worth a look also. The Jaguars are 8-1 OVER as a road underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans are amazing 10-0 OVER versus AFC South opponents over the same time span.

Jacksonville covers if they protect Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. The patchwork offensive line is springing more leaks than a White House classified report. The Houston run defense is beatable, meaning Jones-Drew and friends can have enough moments to matter. The passing game has become real predictable. Any empty backfield means slant to Matt Jones or seam route to Mercedes Lewis, with bailout to Jones-Drew. Throw down the field and maybe the Jags improve to 13-3-1 ATS as division road underdogs.

Houston covers if they keep finding Johnson, since they have won four of the six games he has 100 yards or more receiving. His presence has opened up Kevin Walter, who has seven touchdowns this season. Their running backs are beat up; however spot production is necessary against pedestrian Jaguars defense. The defense forced five turnovers last week, unlikely to happen again, but the same aggressive attitude could take the Texans to 12-5 ATS hosting division rivals.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any Monday night road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in consecutive games. This system is 20-9 ATS, 68.9 percent.